CIA-RDP96-00789R000700260002-5

Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R000700260002-5
I BACKGROUND
(U)
(S/SF/SS-2)
SUN STREAK is an in-house DIA project for developing
an operational psychoenergetics (i.e., remote viewing) capability
for the Intelligence Community. Twelve GDIP billets were
authorized for DIA in 1986 for this activity. Personnel from the
ARMY
army INSCOM CENTER LANE Project also had been examining similar
who
phenomenon were transferred to DIA to form the SUN STREAK core
group. DIA had earlier (1985) received operational control from
HQ
the DA for this 6-person army unit.
(S/NF/SS-2)
In 1985, the DIA SUN STREAK program
P
( PM )
manager prepared
an Action plan that: (1) detailed the steps necessary to
transition the CENTER LANE unit to DIA; (2) identified SUN STREAK
staffing and support needs; and (3) set forth key programmatic
requirements for the SUN STREAK activity.
The Action plan
anticipated that time required for achieving a prototype
9
operational capability would be approximately 3 years.
S/NF/55-2)
1
(
Key aspects of this action
blan, along with additional
procedural information, were sent to congressional committees in
1986. The IC staff was also briefed at this time on the action
Pplan and an
anticipated SUN STREAK operational development and
data evaluation procedures.
(S/NF/SS-2)
Programmatic and operational requirements identified
in the action
<
blan were to: (1) Cfain special access program (SAP)
06
1
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R000700260002-5
2
Cops07
nct ?

Approved For Release 2000/08/62.
QTA-KOP96-00789R000700260002-5
status (accomplished in March 1985); (2) gain human use approval
(granted in March 1985); (3) set up a senior oversight and a task
coordinating committee (accomplished -- though not currently
activated); (4) establish tight project controls along with an
automated data base management and records system (accomplished) ;
and (5) to establish an R/D link for supporting operational
capability development (accomplished via HQ SGRD funding and a
DARPA MIPR).
(S/NF/SS-2) The R/D link, via SRI International, has yielded
improved data evaluation procedures, has identified potential
personnel selection techniques, and has contributed to
training/development methods that are currently in project use.
received and continues To das
The activity at SRI has undergone extensive review by a 9-member
peer review panel to insure that scientific rigor is maintained,i all their,
A
(S/NF/SS-2)
ag
Basic approach employed by SUN STREAK toward
C
(actintien
developing a prototype operational remote viewing (RV) capability
is to located personnel with potential RV capability and to
develop these abilities via appropriate training/development
procedures.
Once satisfactory progress is noted on single-to-
verify training tasks, those individuals are presented advanced
1
training and operational simulation targets.
Operational
on's
scientific targets
simulation targets are usually US military
1
08
U.S.
where ground truth is totally known or can be readily determined.
Satisfactory performance on these tasks would qualify an
individual for operational projects of interest to the
many
intelligence community.
In way of the operational projects,
however, ground truth is usually not known (or is only partially
5
2
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R000700260002-5

Approved For Release 2000/08105 . CIA-RDP96-00789R000700260002-5
known ) .
Consequently, complete evaluation of the viewer's data
cannot be made until a later time when ground truth does become
available.
In the interim, reasonable estimates of the overall
validity of the viewer's data can be made for many of the
operational projects worked, based on what is generally known or
suspected about the target. These interim evaluation results
au
would be updated whenever new ground truth is received.
1
1
(S/NF/SS-2)
The operational projects pursued by SUN STREAK are
approved by the program manager and are, in part, based on the
program manager's familarity with IC needs and on solicitation
from others within the IC who have been briefed into the SUN
STREAK program.
1
(S/NF/SS-2)
The evaluation performed for this report cover all
the operational and operational simulation projects
(approximately 200) that have been worked by SUN STREAK personnel
a few of Swo the
called por
uvolved use
since 1986.
However, & for special operations
1
results are also
consultants from the SRI talent pool.
These
1
wer
a few
of the total projects worked, and their poour
do not alter the
included in the
overall evaluation presented in this report.
×
SECRET
3
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R000700260002-5

Approved For Release 2000/08/25 Stx-KDP96-00789R000700260002-5
II EVALUATION
(U)
1.
DATA BASE
(U)
(S/NF/SS-2) The SUN STREAK project maintains an extensive
record of all project activity. Details include project
timing, people involved i.e., viewers, interviewers, and
possibly observers) , and a variety of other data considered
essential for good record keeping and for evaluating project
results.
This data, along with project summaries, are
maintained in an automated data base for convenient
retrieval.
Copies of project summaries are also sent to the
Program manager for his review.
In addition, all raw data
(i. e., sketches, viewer's notes) are maintained in a
separate file that is available for review and analysis
(Additional project record details are in appendix I) .
(S/NF/SS-2)
Evaluations conducted for this report involved a
complete reexamination of the entire SUN STREAK operational
data base. Many of the earlier projects had only been
partially evaluated, or not evaluated at all, due to lack of
at the time they were completed.
suitable ground truth,
cts were reevaluated at
1
this time to adjust fr
for
1
new intelligence data that has
since
recently become available for some of the projects.
(S/NF/SS-2) For this evaluation, the data base was
subdivided into 6 main project types: (1) Scientific and
GRAD
4
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R000700260002-5

Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R000700260002-5
technological (S/T) ; (2) counterterrorist (CT); (3)
Counternarcotics (CN) ; (4) (counterintelligence (CI); (5)
document Contents (Doc Cont) ; and (6) predictive (pred).
Total projects worked for these categories are shown on
figure 1
v
FIND
out
(S/NF/SS-2) Of the nearly 200 projects worked,
approximately one-half cannot be evaluated since ground
truth is not sufficiently known at this time. For
approximately one-fourth of the projects, ground truth is
totally known (or highly certain) , and for the other one-
fourth, ground truth is only partially known but considered
sufficient for making a reasonable interim evaluation.
project
(S/NF/SS-2) Some of these categories can overlap. For
1
example, prediction data is also an aspect of most of the
CN, many of the CT and a few of the S/T projects.
The
prediction category in figure 1 refers mostly to predictions
primary
4
of a political/military nature.
10
future analysis predictive
there
data will be evaluated as a separate aspect of the various
categories.
2. EVALUATION TECHNIQUES
(U)
(S/NF/SS-2) Techniques used for evaluating the SUN STREAK
operational and simulated operational data base depend on the
nature of the task and type of project. S/T projects are the
most difficult to evaluate. This difficulty arises from the
5
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R000700260002-5

from
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R000700260002-5
general complexity existing at most S/T target sites,
possible ambiguous aspects of known ground truth about the target
site, from the nature of the information desired, and in a few
remote vieleing
cases, possibly from the (RV )targeting method employed. It is
easier to evaluate data or S/T targets if only a single issue,
such as presence or absence (of a particular system, for example)
is desired, then it is to evaluate how well a viewers' detailed
but possibly fragmentary description correlates with aspects of a
complex site. In this case a considerable amount of subjectivity
can be involved in evaluating the degree of data /target
correlation.
(S/NF/SS-2)
To assist in reducing overall subjectivity of
evaluating complex S/T targets, the viewers' data is examined and .
compared to ground truth with several data categories in mind.
1
These categories are shown in figure 2, and include geographic
descriptions, large and small scale objects, large and small
scale functions, personality data, and predictive data. Not all
these categories may be relevant to a specific project, and in
some cases may even be part of the RV targeting procedure (e. g.,
used
when a photo of target building is used as an RV targeting
reference for accessing its unknown contents).
(S/NF/SS-2) After identifying the appropriate data category, the
next step is to examine the viewers' raw (or summarized) data for
comparison to known or estimated ground truth and to make a best
judgement on what approximate degree of data correlation actually
ECRET
6
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R000700260002-5
7

Approved For Release 2000/06/08: CIA-RDP96-00789R000700260002-5
exists.
Figure 3 defines the scale ratings used along with their
approximate degree of data correlation.
( Appendix II contains
detailed instructions for analyst consideration when reviewing
the data) .
7.
(S/NF/SS-2)
5
for
Final evaluations and summaries are prepared by the
Program manager and his project representative A(who is not part
2
systemor
of SUN STREAK staff) in conjunction with the responsible area
1
analyst or Intelligence Community point-of-contact.
Latest
intelligence data and reports on that target site are also
reviewed during this process. In some cases, area analysts and
the IC points-of-contact provide written appraisals to assist in
the final evaluation process.
These evaluations are recorded on
summary forms and are maintained in the program manager's files.
(S/NFSS-2)
An example of an S/T target evaluation is in figure
SG1A
4.
In this case the target site was the
The
SG1A
project was completed in June 1987 and involved four viewers (2
SG1A
proven and 2 novice) .
In this example, the bracket ( )
Adata validity
for that data catagay
indicates a best estimate was made since ground truth is not yet
totally knownA
dash means that data category was not
#
present in the viewers' data.
One of the viewers(#101)
<
attempted
to describe the site 6 months in the future.
In this case,
SG1C
SG1C
SG1B
SG1B
Some of the data categories (i.e.,
from an intelligence data
geographic features, large scale objects) are not important since
(newport since
7
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R000700260002-5
7
?

Approved For Release 2000/08/
I'm conventional collected CHA-RDP96-00789R000700260002-5
the viewer data in More categover
they are known,
However,
they are included in the data the
evaluation for this project since they tend to provide confidence
that other (as yet unknown) details in the data may be correct.
(S/NF/SS-2) A more sophisticated analysis methodology has been
recently developed by SRI for use in evaluating complex projects.
This methods' main advantage is that it allows quantified
the generated by the viewer
estimates to be made for each and every data element with respect
to both actual target existence and importance. This technique
is currently being examined for use in the SUN STREAK program and
has been applied to a few projects. However, it is a labor
intensive technique that will probably be used only for select
high interest projects in the future.
(S/NF/SS-2) Most of the other SUN STREAK project types do not
require a complex analysis methodology. For example, due to the
nature of what type of data is desired (and availability of
collection assets that can be cued) , most of the CTp CN, or
1
1
predictive projects where ground truth is known can be evaluated
in a "black or white" manner.
viewers
the data ,even if not acted upon,
1
either correlated with the subsequent location of the fugitive or
ship, or
Joes
The event predicted did, or did not,
happen. Thus, overall results for many of these projects are
simply a matter of counting hits and misses. Hit ratios or
percentages of hits/misses form the basis of overall data
correlations made in this report for these type of projects.
Additional data analysis is of course performed to determine how
8
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R000700260002-5

SECRET
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R000700260002-5
close to ground truth the data actually was. This may be of
projects of this nature.
value in understanding how to conduct future search or prediction
1
projects.
3. EVALUATION RESULTS (U)
(S/NF/SS-3) Overall data correlations for all SUN STREAK
operational and operational simulation projects performed since
7
1
1986 are shown in figure 5.
These results were obtained by
averaging the data entered on the summary data evaluation sheets
for each project primarily for two data categories (i.e. large
object and function ).
scale and small scale).
The top lines on the bar charts reflect
data averages obtained from the proven or experienced viewers.
For some projects, especially some of the CN and CI projects, the
distinction between large scale and small scale is not clearcut , furthermore,
and this differentiation may not be too important. For the
projects,
predictive category and most of the CN data, data correlations
were based on a hit/miss calculation.
1
?
(S/NF/SS-3)
Figure 5 indicates that, on the average, data from
proven SUN STREAK viewers for S/T projects will tend to have a 20
percent to 30 percent correlation with ground truth for small
scale targets, and a 30 percent to 50 percent correlation with
ground truth for large scale target features. Likewise, for CT
or CN projects, about 20 percent to 50 percent of SUN STREAK data
would be expected to correlate with ground truth. Caution must
be exercised in interpreting this data, however, since the data
known
in there categories.
base with many ground truth is quite low,
<
Even though the data
9
..
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R000700260002-5

Approved For Release 2000/08/0
CetTROP96-00789R000700260002-5
base is atoo small for CI and Document
Reading projects, SUN
STREAK data shows a 40 percent to 60 percent correlation level
however, the
the size the data base is also fute low.
with ground truth for the projects. The Document Reading
projects were, however, carefully isolated and is a known or
designated location. Predictive data of the complex event type
mey
(e. g. , political/military situations or long term) shows a low
data correlation (i.e., reliability) of about 10 percent or less.
(S/NF/SS-3)
If all SUN STREAK projects are averaged together, as
shown in figure 6, data correlation would range from about 20
percent for small scale aspects to about 40 percent for large
scale aspects. While "averaging" such data may indicate overall
results in the long run, such averaging tends to washout those
results that have singular high merit, such as the identification
several months in advance of a specific area in the U. S. where a
fugitive was later found. In this case, SUN STREAK data was not
nevertheless in this area
acted upon; fortunately, the fugitive was abducted through other.
alertness
1
MOEDA.
The fa local low enforcement official.
due to
(S/NF/SS-3)
Another way of considering overall SUN STREAK
project data correlation is to consider only the proven viewers.
This data is shown in figure 7 for times when these experienced
viewers received a 2 or 2+ in the numerical ratings assigned to
their data correlations. Only two types of data are presented
here; S/T and personality data is obtained from the various CT,
7
CN and CI projects. For S/T projects, proven viewers would be
data correlation
expected to receive a high (i.e. approx. 70 percent) rating on
10
D
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R000700260002-5

Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R000700260002-5
about 20 percent of the S/T projects attempted.
For Personality projects
ta (i.e., background, state-of-the-health, specific
activities) , around 50 percent to 60 percent of the projects
would yield high results. Essentially, this chart indicates
certain strengths/weaknesses of the present SUN STREAK staff and
what
suggests more projects 2
1
" foreign or CI target
personalities are warranted.
11
11
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R000700260002-5

5000
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R000700260002-5
III FINDINGS (U)
although
(S/NF/SS-3)
The overall data correlations provided in the
have,
previous section, although in some instances have a low overall
che the results are
2
average,
are, unique enough to warrant further attention and
continueds SUN STREAK activity. Even in the lowest reliability
case (i.e., predictive), identification of even one important
future event out of ten could in fact be highly significant in for
Il
cost or life saving.
There averages else do not do justice for to
the single unique cases that cost little to act upon, as in the
case of the fugitive location cited in section 3.
(S/NF/SS-3)
Specific findings that resulted from in-depth review
of the entire SUN STREAK data base include:
1
2.
5
0
Individuals performance correlates with project
type. This observation has already assisted in better
task/person matching, and overall data correlations would be
expected to improve in the future.
· SUN STREAK has a distinct potential for direct
contribution to certain CI, CN and CT cases, as born out by
specific instances over the past two years.
o Predictive data is promising under certain conditions,
such as near term events or situations that do not involve
complex interactions.
SEIREI
12
1
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R000700260002-5

Approved For Release 2000/08/08 :CIA-RDP96-00789R000700260002-5
o S/T data, though having promise for select tasks, does
not yield parametric data.
o SUN STREAK viewers work well under operational stress.
de mataa
It may be that an environment of operational stress wibra
this situation seems to foster conditions.
generator a
clear and immediate need
1
focusing effect that
1
enables RV to function better.
o Obtaining highly reliable RV data and then applying it to
real operational projects is difficult. However, it is
evident that continued work with RV data does result in
greater insight on how best to use RV data and on how best
to utilize RV talent available. Thus, it is anticipated
that RV data utility will increase as experience of the SUN
STREAK team grows.
SECRET
13
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R000700260002-5

Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R000700260002-5
APPENDIX I
PROJECT RECORD DETAILS
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R000700260002-5

Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R000700260002-5
APPENDIX II
DETAILED INSTRUCTIONS TO ANALYST/DATA REVIEWERS
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R000700260002-5