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Version
SPECIAL ACCESS PROGRAM
SPECIAL REPORT
SUN. STREAK EVALUATION
............
WARNING NOTICE:
THIS MATERIAL IS
RESTRICTED TO THOSE WITH VERIFIED
ACCESS TO SUN STREAK LEVEL 3 (SS-3).
2 NOVEMBER 1989
CLASSIFIED BY: DIA/ST
DECLASSIFY BY: OADR
DWUKROT/NOFORN
SPECIAL ACCESS PROGRAM
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UNCLASSIFIED
CONTENTS
PURPOSE
----------------
i
I BACKGROUND
1
II EVALUATION
4
-
III FINDINGS
--------
12
APPENDIX
I.
PROJECT RECORD DETAILS
II.
DETAILED INSTRUCTIONS TO ANALYSTS/DATA REVIEWERS
UNCLASSIFIED
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UNCLASSIFIED
CONTENTS
PURPOSE
i
I BACKGROUND
-----
1
II EVALUATION
1."Data Base
2. "Evaluation Techniques
3. Evaluation Results
III FINDINGS
3
APPENDIX
I.
PROJECT RECORD DETAILS
II.
DETAILED INSTRUCTIONS TO ANALYSTS/DATA REVIEWERS
UNCLASSIFIED
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UNCLASSIFIED
LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURE 1.
Number of Projects as a Function of type
FIGURE 2.
Data Categories
FIGURE 3.
Evaluation Scales
FIGURE 4.
Summary Data Evaluation Sheet --- Example
FIGURE 5:
Overall Data Correlations
FIGURE 6.
Overall Averages for all Project Types
FIGURE 7.
Expected Results for Approximately 70% Data
Accuracy --- Selected Personnel
UNCLASSIFIED
1
.
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SUN STREAK EVALUATION
PURPOSE:
(S/NF/SS-2)
Purpose of this report is to provide an
evaluation of the SUN STREAK operational projects conducted since
1986.
j.
ii
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I
BACKGROUND
(U)
(S/SF/SS-2)
SUN STREAK is an in-house DIA project for
developing an operational psychoenergetics (i.e., remote viewing)
Capability for the Intelligence Community.
Twelve General
Defense Intelligence Program (GDIP) billets were authorized for
DIA in 1986 for this activity. Personnel from the ARMY INSCOM
CENTER LANE Project who had been examining similar phenomenon
were transferred to DIA to form the SUN STREAK core group.
DIA
had earlier (1985) received operational control from HQ DA for
this 6-person Army unit.
(S/NF/SS-2)
In 1985, the DIA SUN STREAK Program Manager
prepared an Action Plan that: (1) detailed the steps necessary to
transition the CENTER LANE unit to DIA; (2) identified SUN STREAK
staffing and support needs; and (3) set forth key programmatic
requirements for the SUN STREAK activity.
The Action Plan
anticipated that the time required for achieving a prototype
operational capability Would be approximately 3 years.
(S/NF/SS-2) Key aspects of this Action Plan, along with
additional procedural information, were sent to congressional
committees in 1986.
The IC staff was also briefed at this time
on the Action Plan and on anticipated SUN STREAK operational
development and data evaluation procedures.
. (S/NF/SS-2). Programmatic and operational requirements
identified in the Action Plan were to: (1) gain Special Access
Program (SAP) status (accomplished in March 1985); (2) gain human
use approval (granted. in. March 1985); (3) set up a Senior
Oversight and a Task Coordinating Committee (accomplished -
though not currently activated); (4) establish tight project
controls along with an automated database management and records
system (accomplished); and (5) to establish an R/D. link for
supporting operational capability development (accomplished via
HQ SGRD funding and a DARPA MIPR) .
(S/NF/SS-2) . The R/D link, via SRI International, has
yielded improved data evaluation procedures, has identified
potential personnel selection techniques, and has contributed to
training/development methods that are currently in project use.
The activity at SRI has received and continues to receive
extensive review by a 9-member peer review panel to insure that
scientific rigor is maintained in all their activities.
(S/NF/SS-2) The basic approach employed by SUN STREAK
toward developing a prototype operational Remote Viewing (RV)
capability is to locate personnel with potential RV capability
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and to develop these abilities via appropriate training/
development procedures.
Once satisfactory progress is noted on
simple-to-verify training tasks, these individuals are presented
advanced training and operational simulation targets.
Operational simulation targets are usually US military or US
scientific targets where ground truth is totally known or can be
readily determined. Satisfactory performance on these tasks
qualify an individual for operational projects of interest to the
intelligence community. In many of the operational projects,
however, ground truth is usually not known. (or is only partially
known)
Consequently, complete evaluation of the viewer's data
cannot be made until a later time when ground truth does become
available. In the interim, reasonable estimates of the overall
validity of the viewer's data can be made for many of the
operational projects worked, based on what is generally known or
suspected about the target. These interim evaluation results are
updated whenever new ground truth is received.
:(S/NF/SS-2) The operational projects pursued by SUN STREAK
'are approved by the Program Manager and are, in part, based on ...
the Program Manager's familarity with Intelligence Community (IC)
needs and on solicitation from others within the IC who have been
briefed into the SUN STREAK program.
: (S/NF/SS-2)
The Evaluations performed for this report cover
all the operational and operational simulation projects
(approximately 200) that have been worked by SUN STREAK personnel
since 1986. A few of the special operations called upon
"consultants from the SRI talent pool. These results are also
included in the overall evaluation.
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II
EVALUATION
...........
1.
DATA BASE
(U)
(S/NF/SS-2)
The SUN STREAK project maintains an extensive
record of all project activity.
Details include project timing,
people involved (i.e., viewers, interviewers, and possibly
observers), and a variety of other data considered essential for
good record keeping and for evaluating project results.
This
data, along with project summaries, are maintained in an
automated data base for convenient retrieval. Copies of project
summaries are also sent to the Program Manager for his review.
In addition, all raw data (i.e., sketches, viewer's notes) are
maintained in a separate file that is available for review and
analysis (Additional project record details are in appendix I) .
(S/NF/SS-2): Evaluations conducted for this report involved
a complete re-examination of the entire SUN STREAK operational
data base. Many of the earlier projects had only been partially
evaluated, or not evaluated at all, due to lack of suitable
ground truth at the time they were completed. These projects
were re-evaluated at this time to adjust for new intelligence
data that has since become available.
· (S/NF/SS-2) For this evaluation, the data base was
subdivided into 6 main project types: (1) Scientific and
Technological (S/T); (2) Counterterrorist (CT) ; (3)
Counternarcotics (CN) ; . (4) Counterintelligence. (CI); (5) Document
Contents' (Doc Cont) ; and (6) predictive (pred). Total projects
worked for these categories are shown in Figure 1.
(S/NF/SS-2) Of the nearly 200 projects worked,
approximately one-half cannot be evaluated since ground truth is
not sufficiently known at this time. For approximately one-
fourth of the projects, ground truth is totally known (or highly
certain) , and for the other one-fourth, ground truth is only
partially known but considered sufficient for making a reasonable
interim evaluation.
(S/NF/SS-2)
Some of these project categories can overlap.
For example, prediction data is also an aspect of most of the CN,
many of the CT and a few of the S/T projects.
The prediction
Category in Figure 1 refers primarily to predictions of a
political/military nature. In future analysis, predictive data
will be evaluated as a separate aspect of the these project
categories.
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INTELLIGEN
AGENCY
PROJECTS WORKED
1986- 1989
TOTAL PROJECTS = 192
70
KNOWN
60
PARTIALLY KNOWN
NOT KNOWN
50
4
PROJECTS
40
30
20
10
0
S/T
CT
CN
CI
DOC
CONTENTS
PRED.
PROJECT TYPE
SCORET NOFORN
SP5353 0-
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FIG 1

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1
2.
EVALUATION TECHNIQUES
(U)
(S/NF/SS-2)
Techniques used for evaluating the SUN STREAK
operational and simulated operational database depend on the
nature of the task and type of project. S/T projects are the
most difficult to evaluate.
This difficulty arises from the
general complexity existing at most S/T target sites, from
possible ambiguous aspects of known ground truth about the target
site, from the nature of the information desired, and in a few
cases, possibly from the remote viewing (RV) targeting method
employed.
It is easier to evaluate data on S/T targets if only a
single issue, such as presence or absence (of a particular
system, for example) is desired, then it is to evaluate how well
a viewers' detailed but possibly fragmentary description
correlates with aspects of a complex site.
In this case a
considerable amount of subjectivity can be involved in evaluating
the degree of data /target correlation.
(S/NF/SS-2)" To assist in reducing overall subjectivity of
evaluating complex S/T targets, the viewers' data is examined and
compared to ground truth with several data categories in mind.
These categories are shown in Figure 2, and include geographic
descriptions, large and small scale objects, large and small
scale functions, personality data, and predictive data. Not all
these categories may be relevant to a specific project, and. in ...
some cases may even be part of the RV targeting procedure used
(e.g., when a photo of target building is used as an RV targeting
reference for accessing its unknown contents) . .
(S/NF/SS-2) After identifying the appropriate data
category, the next step is to examine the viewers' raw (or
summarized) data for comparison to known or estimated ground
truth and to make a best judgement on what approximate degree of
data correlation actually exists. Figure 3 defines the scale
ratings used along with their approximate degree of data
1
correlation:
(Appendix II contains detailed instructions for
analyst consideration when reviewing the data) .
(S/NF/SS-2) Final evaluations and summaries are prepared by
the Program Manager and/or his project representative (who is not
part of SUN STREAK staff) in conjunction with the responsible
system or Area Analyst or Intelligence Community point-of-
contact. Latest intelligence data and reports on that target
site are also reviewed during this process.
In some cases, area
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DATA CATEGORIES
GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTIONS -- e.g., TERRAIN FEATURES;
WATER, MOUNTAINS
OBJECTS (LARGE SCALE) - - e.g., AIRFIELDS, FACILITY
LAYOUT, DOCKS, SILOS
6
OBJECTS (SMALL SCALE) -- e.g., LASERS, TANKS, ANTENNAS
FUNCTIONS (LARGE SCALE) - - e.g., R/D, WEAPON TESTING,
PRODUCTION
FUNCTIONS (SMALL SCALE) -- e.g., LASER TESTING, CBW
STORAGE, MISSILE FIRING
PERSONALITY DATA - - e.g., STATE-OF-HEALTH, PHYSICAL
FEATURES, BACKGROUND
PREDICTIVE - - e.g., PLANS, INTENTIONS, FUTURE LOCATIONS,
FUTURE ACTIONS / ACTIVITY
SP5353.13
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FIG 2
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Canı
NUMERICAL
RATING
APPROX. DEGREE OF
DATA CORRELATION
PERCENT
DESCRIPTION
0
0- 10
LITTLE OR NO CORRELATION
1
10-30
7
1+
30-50
MIXTURE OF RELEVANT
AND INCORRECT DATA
WITH MAJORITY INCORRECT
2
50-70
MIXTURE OF RELEVANT
AND INCORRECT DATA
WITH MAJORITY CORRECT
AND UNAMBIGUOUS
2+
70-90
3
90- 100
VERY HIGH TARGET
CORRELATION WITH
ESSENTIALLY NO
AMBIGUOUS DATA
SP5353.11
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FIL 3
5
EVALUATION SCALES

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analysts and the IC points-of-contact provide written appraisals
to assist in the final evaluation process.
These evaluations are
recorded on summary forms and are maintained in the Program
Manager's files.
(S/NF/SS-2)
An example of an S/T target evaluation is in
Figure 4. In this case the target site was
SG1A
SG1A
SG1A
The project was completed in June 1987
SG1A
and involved four viewers
(2 proven and 2 novice) .
In this
example, the bracket (
) indicates a best estimate of data
validity was made for that data category since ground truth is
not yet totally known for
A "dash"
means that data
category was not present in the viewers' data. One of the
viewers (#101) attempted to describe the site 6 months in the
future. In this case,
the
SG1C
SG1B
Some of the
data categories (i.e. , geographic features, large scale objects)
are not important from an intelligence data viewpoint since they
are known from conventional collection assets. However, the
viewers' data in these categories are included in the evaluation
for this project since they tend to provide confidence that other
(as yet unknown) details in the data may be correct.
(S/NF/SS-2) A more sophisticated analysis methodology has
been recently developed by SRI for use in evaluating complex
projects.
This method's main advantage is that it allows
quantified estimates to be made for each and every data element .
generated by the viewer with respect to both actual target
existence and importance. This technique is currently being
examined for use in the SUN STREAK program and has been applied
to a few projects.
However, it is a labor intensive technique
that will probably be used only for select high interest projects
in the future.
(S/NF/SS-2)
Most of the other SUN STREAK project types do
not require a complex analysis methodology. For example, due to
the nature of what type of data is desired (and availability of
collection assets that can be cued), most of the CT, CN, or
predictive projects where ground truth is known can be evaluated
in a "black or white" manner. The viewers' data, even if not
acted upon, either correlates with the subsequent location of the
fugitive or ship, or it does not.
The event predicted did, or
did not, happen. Thus, overall results for many of these
projects are simply a matter of counting hits and misses.
Hit
ratios or percentages of hits/misses form the basis of overall
data correlations made in this report for these types of
projects.
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SUMMARY DATA EVALUATION SHEET
0-3 SCALE
DATA CATEGORIES
PROJECT
COMPLETED
SESSIONS
SOURCES
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
f.
g.
COMMENTS
GEO.
OBJ.
L.S.
OBJ.
S.S.
FN.
L.S.
FN.
S.S.
PERS.
PR.
8701
11 JUNE 87
12
003
2
2
1
1+
1
-
018
-
-
0
1
0
-
9
021
1
2
(1)
-
-
-
( ) = C.B.E.
101
1
2+
2+
1+
1
-
V
6 MONTH PR.
SP5353 10
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FIG 4
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Additional data analysis is, of course, performed to determine
how close to ground truth the data actually was.
This may be of
value in understanding how to conduct future projects of this
nature.
3.
EVALUATION RESULTS
(U)
(S/NF/SS-3) Overall data correlations for all SUN STREAK
operational and operational simulation projects performed since
1986 are shown in Figure 5. These results were obtained by
averaging the data entered on the Summary Data Evaluation sheets
for each project primarily for two data categories (i.e. large
scale and small scale object and function). The top lines on the
bar charts reflect data averages obtained from the proven or
experienced viewers. For some projects, especially some of the
CN and CI projects, the distinction between large scale and small
scale is not clearcut; furthermore, this differentiation may not.
be too important. ; For the predictive category and most of the CN
projects, data correlations were based mainly on a hit/miss
calculation.
(S/NF/SS-3) Figure 5 indicates that, on the average, data
from proven SUN STREAK viewers for S/T projects will tend to have
a 20 percent to 30 percent correlation with ground truth for
small scale targets, and a 30 percent to 50 percent correlation
with ground truth for large scale target features. I
Likewise, for
CT or CN projects, about 20 percent to 50 percent of SUN STREAK
data would be expected to correlate with ground truth. Caution
must be exercised in interpreting this data, however, since the
database with known ground truth is quite low in these
categories. For CI and Document Reading projects, SUN STREAK
data shows a 40 percent to 60 percent correlation level with
ground truth; however the size of this database is also quite
low.
The Document Reading projects were, however, carefully
isolated and in a known or designated location.
Predictive data
of the complex event type (e.g., political /military situations)
shows a very low data correlation (i.e., reliability) of about 10
percent or less.
(S/NF/SS-3)
If all SUN STREAK projects are averaged
together, as shown in Figure 6, data correlation would range from
about 20 percent for small scale aspects to about 40 percent for
large scale aspects.
While "averaging" such data may indicate
overall results in the long run, such averaging tends to washout
those results that have singular high merit, such as the
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OVERALL DATA CORRELATIONS
80
60
PERCENT OF
DATA CORRELATION
40
=
20
0
S/T
CT
CN
CI
DOC.
CONTENTS
PRED
PROJECT TYPE
LARGE SCALE
(TEST FACILITY, AIRFIELD)
SMALL SCALE
(LASER TEST, ANTENNA DISH)
CET NOFORN
SP5353.02
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F
5
1

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OVERALL AVERAGES FOR
ALL PROJECT TYPES
PERCENT OF
DATA CORRELATION
60
50
40
LARGE SCALE
12
30
SMALL SCALE
20
10
0
ALL PROJECTS
NOFORN
SP5353.01
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identification several months in advance of a specific area in
the US where a fugitive was later found.
In this case, SUN
STREAK data was not acted upon; fortunately, the fugitive was
nevertheless abducted in this area due to the alertness of a
local law enforcement official.
(S/NF/SS-3)
Another way of considering overall SUN STREAK
project data correlation is to consider only the proven viewers.
This data is shown in Figure 7, for times when these experienced
viewers received a 2 or 2+ in the numerical ratings assigned to
their data correlations. Only two types of data are presented
here; S/T, and Personality data as obtained from the various CT,
CN and CI projects. For S/T projects, proven viewers would be
expected to receive a high (i.e. approx. 70 percent) data
correlation rating on about 20 percent of the S/T projects
attempted. For Personality projects (i.e., background, state-of-
the-health, specific activities), around 50 percent to 60 percent
of the .projects .would yield high results. Essentially, this
chart indicates certain strengths/weaknesses of : the present. SUN
STREAK staff and suggests that more projects on foreign or CI
target personalities are warranted.
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EXPECTED RESULTS FOR APPROXIMATELY
70% DATA ACCURACY
SELECTED PERSONNEL
80
70
1
PERCENT OF PROJECTS
60
50
14
40
30
20
10
0
S/T
PERSONALITY
DATA
CECHET NOFORN
PROJECT TYPE
SP5353.03
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III FINDINGS
(U)
(S/NF/SS-3)
Although the overall data correlations provided
in the previous section have, in some instances, have a low
overall average, the results are unique enough to warrant further
attention and continued SUN STREAK activity. Even in the lowest
reliability case (i.e., predictive) , identification of even one
important future event out of ten could in fact be highly
significant for cost or life saving.
These "averages" do not do
justice to the single unique cases that cost little to act upon,
as in the case of the fugitive location cited in section 3.
(S/NF/SS-3)
Specific findings that resulted from in-depth
review of the entire SUN STREAK data base include:
0
"Individuals' performance correlates with project. type.
This. observation has already assisted in better task/person
matching, and overall data correlations would be expected to
improve in the future.
0
SUN STREAK has a distinct potential for direct
contribution to certain CI, CN and CT cases,
as born out by
specific instances over the past two year's.
0
Predictive data is promising under certain conditions,
such as near term events or situations that do not involve
complex interactions.
o. S/T data, though having promise for select tasks, does
not yield parametric data.
0
.SUN STREAK viewers work well under operational stress.
It may be that an environment of operational stress
generates a clear and immediate need. This situation seems
to foster conditions that enables RV to function better.
o Obtaining highly reliable. RV data and then applying it to
real operational projects is difficult.
However, it is
evident that continued work with RV data does result in
greater insight on how best to use RV data and on how best
to utilize RV talent available.
Thus, it is anticipated
that RV data utility will increase as experience of the SUN
··· żersauk
STREAK team grows.
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UNCLASSIFIED
APPENDIX I
PROJECT RECORD DETAILS
UNCLASSIFIED
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UNCLASSIFIED
APPENDIX II
DETAILED INSTRUCTIONS TO ANALYST/DATA REVIEWERS
UNCLASSIFIED
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