CIA-RDP96-00792R000100120001-3

Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00792R000100120001-3
SECRET
IAGPA-F-SD
30 April 1984
MEMORANDUM FOR RECORD
SUBJECT:
Trip Report, Stanford Research Institute (SRI), 4 & 5
March 1984 (U)
1. (U)
Purpose:
a.
( S/CL-3/NOFORN)
To discuss preliminary Data Base
Management System (DBMS) requirements as they impact on Project
CENTER LANE.
b. (S/CL-3/NOFORN) To discuss the specifics of design in
task directed DBMS programs which will support both training as
well as operational parameters of Project CENTER LANE.
c.
(S/CL-3/NOFORN) To discuss the complexity and selected
methodology of applied statistical analysis to be used to
evaluate and support the DBMS programs developed in support of
Project CENTER LANE.
2. (U) Problems:
a.
( S/CL-3/NOFORN )
Data collected from current training
and operational Psychoenergetic sessions while similar, require
different DBMS handling during evaluation.
b. (S/CL-3/NOFORN )
Identifiable fields or characteristics
which can be applied to the DBMS in both the training as well as
the operational collection area range from a minimum of thirty
(30) as defined by Dr. Jahns, or sixty (60) as tentatively
identified by SRI- International (SRI-I) in support of training
requirements.
Operational requirements could run as high as
three or four hundred (300-400) dependent on the degree of
detail in the final analysis.
WARNING NOTICE:
CENTER LANE SPECIAL ACCESS PROGRAM
RESTRICT DISSEMINATION TO THOSE WITH VERIFIED ACCESS
TO CATEGORY FOUR (4)
SENSITIVE INTELLIGENCE SOURCES AND METHODS INVOLVED
NOT RELEASABLE TO FOREIGN NATIONALS
CLASSIFIED BY :
CDR, INSCOM
DECLASSIFY ON:
OADR
Approved For Release 20096/10 - GARDIP96-00792R000100120001-3

Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00792R000100120001-3
SECRET
IAGPA-F-SD (30 April 1984)
MEMORANDUM FOR RECORD
SUBJECT:
Trip Report, Stanford Research Institute (SRI), 4 & 5
March 1984 (U)
c.
( S/CL-3/NOFORN )
The appropriate statistical methodology
to be used in the evaluation of data collected in either the
training or operational areas has not yet been determined. This
is a sensitive issue since most scientific paradigms survive as
effective singularly based on the accuracy of the statistical
evaluation utilized to prove them.
£
d.
( S/CL-3/NOFORN )
Lastly, a common data base between
SRI-I and Project CENTER LANE presents no problem with respect
towards the usual training session.
However, this becomes
complicated by an inability to share actual word data in the
operational collection arena, due to its normal classification
and sensitive nature when produced in support of an outside
agency .
3. (U)
Discussion Notes:
a.
(S/CL-3/NOFORN )
Dr. Edward May has stated that he is
certain
a sufficiently
tested and acceptable statistical
analysis package can be written which will stand up to critic
appraisal and comment.
b.
(S/CL-3/NOFORN)
During discussions it was determined
that a triad of empirical data bases could be designed which
would be separate but provide intra-data base support to one
another in performing the necessary functions to support both
training and collection.
( See
Inclosure for
a graphic
representation of this concept. )
Essentially these would be
designed as follows:
(1)
( S/CL-3/NOFORN)
First Data Base.
This base would
support
training and contain
the pre-determined information
fields which would establish the psychoenergetic collector's
statistical accuracy on a continuing basis throughout his/her
training phases. It would break down the specific areas in
which
a
given collector
has significant strengths
or
weaknesses. It would serve to develop new fields which would be
directly transferable to the operational collection or second
data base area.
Finally, it would provide the initial
statistical accuracy figures for each trainee upon his/her
graduation to operational collection. This information would be
transferable to the third data base element.
SECRET
Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00792R000100120001-3

Approved For Release 2000/0815: GARIP96-00792R000100120001-3
IAGPA-F-SD (30 April 1984)
MEMORANDUM FOR RECORD
SUBJECT:
Trip Report, Stanford Research Institute (SRI), 4 & 5
March 1984 (U)
(2)
(S/CL-3/NOFORN) Second Data Base. Would contain all
of the information from operational collection broken down into
identifiable fields. These fields could be altered at will
according to accuracy determination(s) based on feedback from
the agency who both tasked the collection and has responsibility
for assessing the original information provided.
Information
from this data base would be transferable to the third base in
which statistical data on each operational psychoenergetic
collector is maintained.
However; in the development of brand
new or unevaluated operational information, it would have the
capacity of extracting the current statistical evaluation
assumption for each collector from the third data base.
(3)
(S/CL-3/NOFORN )
Third Data Base.
Within the third
data base would reside the on-going evaluations and statistical
probabilities as pertains each
individual
psychoenergetic
collector.
These would be determined and automatically altered
based on changes in the evaluated or known accuracy of
information already logged in the second data base.
These
continual on-going re-evaluations of collector percentages and
statistics
which project current accuracy for any given
collector would be utilized to predict the high and low areas of
correctness for any given specific field in the second data base
as new collection information is provided on a new tasking.
C.
( S/CL-1/NOFORN )
As regards the inability to exchange
actual word data the following design criteria would have to be
utilized when designing the above data bases:
(1)
( S/CL-3/NOFORN )
All word information fields would have
to have two logic file areas. One for use by Project CENTER
LANE, which would actually contain the word or phrase collected
with the evaluated accuracy comment.
One for use by SRI-I,
which would have a numerical equivalent to the general field
name and the associative accuracy comment.
( See Inclosure two
for a graphic illustration. ) The program handling the CENTER
LANE file area would have the capacity to translate to the
numerical code prior to transfer of information to SRI-I.
b.
(S/CL-1/NOFORN )
Current code groups to identify
specific tasked projects within Project CENTER LANE would remain
the same and require no code translation.
Approved For Release 2000/09/10 GIARDP96-00792R000100120001-3

Approved For Release 2000/08/10 - CIA-RDP96-00792R000100120001-3
SECRET
IAGPA-F-SD (30 April 1984)
MEMORANDUM FOR RECORD
SUBJECT :
Trip Report, Stanford Research Institute (SRI), 4 & 5
March 1984 (U)
c.
(S/CL-1/NOFORN )
Specific psychoenergetic collectors
would be coded and handled as they have been since project
concept.
This list of collectors would be identifiable
statistically to SRI-I, but only known by name within CENTER
LANE.
4. (U)
Additional Requirements.
a.
( S/CL-1/NOFORN )
In the past proposals by SRI-I, they
have suggested through proposal that CENTER LANE carry the cost
or weight of purchase of computer equipment to support the
above. Recommend that this not be the case and any cost of
equipment which would revert to SRI-I upon successful completion
of any contract for the above be born solely by them. However ;
it becomes apparent that because of such, the equipment
purchased by them in support of the above may differ somewhat
from that currently in use at CENTER LANE. Therefore, whatever
interface requirement might have to be made in support of
developing the above should probably be born by the CENTER LANE
office.
This should not be excessive.
b. (S/CL-1/NOFORN )
£
Design of the triad data base concept
requires development of programming tree structures.
SRI-I at
this time probably does not possess the necessary main-frame
capability to support an active continual run triad data base.
This should not interfere however with design and testing of
software development in support of CENTER LANE requirements.
5.
(S/CL-1/NOFORN )
Cost.
There was no discussion of cost
during this two day visit.
SRI-I must generate a proposal for
the above, which substantially deviates from their original DBMS
proposal presented in January 1982. A detailed statement of
work must be developed in conjunction with the CENTER LANE
office prior to work commitment, and new performa of cost data
must be provided by SRI-I prior to contracting.
Suggest that
such cost should not exceed $50K.
JOSEPH W. MCMONEAGLE
Automatic Data Processing
Supervisor
Project CENTER LANE
Incl:
1
Triad Data Base Graph
2
Sub-Data Field Storage Example
Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00792R000100120001-3
SECRET

Approved For Release 2000/0800 CAF -36- 0792R000100120001-3
OPERATION OF TRAID DATE BASE
INTRA-COMMUNICATIONS
DATA BASE ONE
TRAINING
(Assists in Providing
Newly Created Fields)
DATA BASE THREE
OPERATIONAL
DATA BASE TWO
OPERATIONAL
(Predicts New
Target Accuracy)
(Updates Accuracy
Based on Newly
Evaluated Material)
(Provides initial
Statistical
Accuracy)
(Determines Initial
Strength and Weaknesses)
SECRET
Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00792R000100120001-3
Incl: 1

Approved For Release 2000/08/10 - CIA-RDP96-00792R000100120001-3
SECRET
TRIAD DATA BASE GRAPH
DATA BASE
ONE
DATA BASE
TWO
TRAINING
OPERATIONAL
DATA BASE
THREE
OPERATIONAL
PREDETERMINE FIELDS
DEVELOP NEW FIELDS
DETERMINE STRENGTHS
DETERMINE WEAKNESSES
PROVIDE INITIAL
STATISTICAL ACCURACY
STORE INITIAL OPERATIONAL
INFORMATION
STORE ACCURACY FEEDBACK
PASS UPDATED ACCURACY
EVALUATIONS
PREDICT ACCURACY ON
UNEVALUATED FIELDS
STORE CURRENT
STATISTICAL ACCURACIES
MODIFY STATISTICAL
ACCURACIES
INSERT NEW ORIGINAL
COLLECTOR ACCURACIES
Approved For Release 20097087141-EDF96-00792R000100120001-3
2

Approved For Release 2000/08@FAIRETo
CARD:96-00792R000100120001-3
SUB-DATA FIELD STORAGE
PORTION OF DATA TREE EXAMPLE
CENTER LANE INFORMATION
EXAMPLE STATEMENT:
"I see a fresh water lake adjacent to the target"
Such a statement would be attributed in actual file to a specific
collector and project number, along with an accurate or non-accurate
notation. This may be recalled in the following format:
"HU001-84-3, Robert Brown, Sub-file=Under Area, WATER=Accurate,
FRESH=Inaccurate, LAKE=Accurate."
"Estimated Accuracy under Sub-file AREA is 66%, WATER=100%,
FRESH=00%, LAKE=100%."
AREA
WATER
LAND
FRESH
OCEAN
MOUNTAIN
DESERT
-
-
-
-
LAKE
POND
COLD
WARM
HIGH
LOW
SCRUB
SAND
PORTION OF DATA TREE EXAMPLE
SRI -I INFORMATION
The same statement in the SRI-I file would not be attributable to any
specific project number but through use of a code number reflect the
accuracy of a specific collector. Such as:
"Collector=#009, Sub-file=Area, A/Sub-file 1=Accurate, B/Sub-file
1=Not Accurate, C/Sub-file 1=Accurate."
"Estimated Accuracy;
£
Sub-file AREA is 66%, A/Sub-file=100%,
B/Sub-file=00%, C/Sub-file=100%."
AREA
1
2
1
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
5
6
8
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