CIA-RDP96-00791R000200200010-4

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THIS IS APPENDIX B
Approved For Release 2004/08/25 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000200200010-4 CLASSIFIED
IN
THE
VERSION OF EVAL. RPT.
PROJECT 91002
7
14 JAN 91
SUMMARY
1. (S/NF/LIMDIS)
TASK:
Describe key events/incidents
significant to the Iraqi situation for the near term period
(7-31 Jan 91).
2.
(U) PRIOR REPORTING:
This is a general follow-up to
tasking for project 90104 as reported on 30 Oct 1990 and on 6 Nov
1990. Project 91002 was initiated on 7 Jan 1991.
3.
(U)
RESPONSES:
a.
(U)
SOURCE 025:
(1)
(U)
DATE OF INFORMATION: 7 Jan 91
(2)
(S/NF/LIMDIS) DATA_SUMMARY:
(a)
Peace Talks:
- Peace talks will fail and will resume in
the Middle East in the March time frame.
(b)
War situation:
-
War will break out in February and last
2-3 months:
US casualties will occur (700-2000) ,
mostly in Kuwait.
o
Hussein will eventually withdraw from
Kuwait.
o
War will be fast and furious.
- By April, Iraq will have a new leader.
- Some US troops will be in Kuwait through
August.
b. (U) SOURCE 049:
(1)
(U)
DATE OF INFORMATION:
12-13 January 1991.
(2)
(S/NF/LIMDIS)
DATA SUMMARY:
-
(a)
War situation:
- War outbreak is imminent.
Approved For Release 2004/08/25 -CIA-RDP90 00791R000200200010-4
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Approved For Release 2004/08/25 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000200200010-4
-
Great indecision or bewilderment mood
exists (on both sides)
(b)
Hussein:
-
There seems to be an older relative of
Hussein who may (or should) emerge that is in
a position to influence and possibly negate
Hussein's stance.
- This person (possibly an uncle) was very
adept at maneuvering members of Hussein's
family, and had great influence on Hussein
when he was a teenager.
c. (U) SOURCE 079:
(1)
(U)
DATE OF INFORMATION:
£
14 January 1991.
(2) (S/NF/LIMDIS)
DATA SUMMARY:
(a)
War Situation:
-
President Bush will announce evening of 14
January 1991 that there will not be a war
with Iraq.
-
Hussein agreed to some type of
negotiation.
-
Iraqi troops will remain in Kuwait for the
near future, but they will eventually be
removed within the next 2-3 months.
-
Some small skirmishes (on water) may occur
in southern areas.
-
Situation will remain tense.
-
Yemen will be a source of trouble for the
US
(b)
Terrorist Attacks:
- None are perceived (in the US) in the near
future.
4.
(S/ND/LIMDIS)
COMMENTS:
a.
Of above, source 079 is most experienced.
b.
This project will be kept current with frequent updates.
2
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