CIA STARGATE release
CIA-RDP96-00791R000200200009-6
Opens with: Describe key events/incidents
Warning: text for all documents has not been verified. Errors are possible. Check the original by document ID on CREST.
4 pages, machine transcribed from the CIA’s released scan.
SECREI Approved For Release 2004/08/25 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000200200009-6 PROJECT 91002 14 JAN 91 SUMMARY 1. (S/NF/LIMDIS) TASK: Describe key events/incidents significant to the Iraqi situation for the near term period (7-31 Jan 91). 2. (U) PRIOR REPORTING: This is a general follow-up to tasking for project 90104 as reported on 30 Oct 1990 and on 6 Nov 1990. Project 91002 was initiated on 7 Jan 1991. 3. (U) RESPONSES: a. (U) SOURCE 025: (1) (U) DATE OF INFORMATION: 7 Jan 91 (2) (S/NF/LIMDIS) DATA SUMMARY: (a) Peace Talks: * - Peace talks will fail and will resume in the Middle East in the March time frame. (b) War situation: - War will break out in February and last 2-3 months: o US casualties will occur (700-2000), mostly in Kuwait. o Hussein will eventually withdraw from Kuwait. o War will be fast and furious. - By April, Iraq will have a new leader. - Some US troops will be in Kuwait through August. b. (U) SOURCE 049: (1) (U) DATE OF INFORMATION: 12-13 January 1991. (2) (S/NF /LIMDIS) DATA_SUMMARY: (a) War situation: - War outbreak is imminent. Approved For Release 2004/08/25 / GIA-ALP96 00791R000200200009-6 SECRE 1
Approved For Releas SECRET -RDP96-00791R000200200009-6 - Great indecision or bewilderment mood exists (on both sides) (b) Hussein: - There seems to be an older relative of Hussein who may (or should) emerge that is in a position to influence and possibly negate Hussein's stance. This person (possibly an uncle) was very adept at maneuvering members of Hussein's family, and had great influence on Hussein when he was a teenager. c. (U) SOURCE 079: (1) (U) DATE OF INFORMATION: 14 January 1991. (2) (S/NF/LIMDIS) . DATA_SUMMARY: (a) War Situation: - President Bush will announce evening of 14 January 1991 that there will not be a war with Iraq. - Hussein agreed to some type of negotiation. - Iraqi troops will remain in Kuwait for the near future, but they will eventually be removed within the next 2-3 months. - Some small skirmishes (on water) may occur in southern areas. - Situation will remain tense. - Yemen will be a source of trouble for the US (b) Terrorist Attacks: - None are perceived (in the US) in the near future. 4. (S/ND/LIMDIS) COMMENTS: a. Of above, source 079 is most experienced. b. This project will be kept current with frequent updates. 2 ved For Release 2004/08/25 . CIA ROP96-00791R000200200009-6 SECRET
2 SECRET Approved For Release 2004/08/25 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000200200009-6 PROJECT 91002 14 JAN 91 SUMMARY 1. ( S/NF /LIMDIS) TASK: Describe key events/incidents significant to the Iraqi situation for the near term period (7-31 Jan 91). 2. (U) PRIOR REPORTING: This is a general follow-up to tasking for project 90104 as reported on 30 Oct 1990 and on 6 Nov 1990. Project 91002 was initiated on 7 Jan 1991. 3. (U) RESPONSES: a. (U) SOURCE 025: (1) (U) DATE OF INFORMATION: 7 Jan 91 (2) (S/NF/LIMDIS) DATA SUMMARY: (a) Peace Talks: - Peace talks will fail and will resume in the Middle East in the March time frame. (b) War situation: - War will break out in February and last 2-3 months: US casualties will occur (700-2000), mostly in Kuwait. 0 Hussein will eventually withdraw from Kuwait. o War will be fast and furious. - By April, Iraq will have a new leader. - Some US troops will be in Kuwait through August. b. (U) SOURCE 049: (1) (U) DATE OF INFORMATION: 12-13 January 1991. (2) (S/NF /LIMDIS) DATA_SUMMARY: (a) War situation: - War outbreak is imminent. Approved For Release 2094/08/25 : CIA RDP99-00791R000200200009-6 SECRET
SECRET Approved For Release 2004/08/25 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000200200009-6 - Great indecision or bewilderment mood exists (on both sides) (b) Hussein: - There seems to be an older relative of Hussein who may (or should) emerge that is in a position to influence and possibly negate Hussein's stance. - This person (possibly an uncle) was very adept at maneuvering members of Hussein's family, and had great influence on Hussein when he was a teenager. c. (U) SOURCE 079: (1) (U) DATE OF INFORMATION: 14 January 1991. (2) (S/NF/LIMDIS) DATA SUMMARY: (a) War Situation: - President Bush will announce evening of 14 January 1991 that there will not be a war with Iraq. - Hussein agreed to some type of negotiation. - Iraqi troops will remain in Kuwait for the near future, but they will eventually be removed within the next 2-3 months. - Some small skirmishes (on water) may occur in southern areas. - Situation will remain tense. - Yemen will be a source of trouble for the US (b) Terrorist Attacks: - None are perceived (in the US) in the near future. 4. (S/ND/LIMDIS) COMMENTS: a. Of above, source 079 is most experienced. b. This project will be kept current with frequent updates. 2 ved For Release 2004/08/25 - CIA-RDP96-00791R000200200009-6 SECRET .