CIA-RDP96-00789R003100160001-0

Phenomenological Research
and
Analysis
Authors:
Edwin C. May, Ph.D. and Wanda L. W. Luke
15 February 1992
SAIC
R
Science Applications International Corporation
An Employee-Owned Company
Presented to:
U. S. Government
Contract MDA908-91-C-0037
(Client Private)
Submitted by:
Science Applications International Corporation
Cognitive Sciences Laboratory
1010 El Camino Real, Suite 330, P.O. Box 1412, Menlo Park, CA 94025 · (415) 325-8292
Other SAApproved For Release 2000/08/08" CIA-RDP 96-00789R003100160000lo, Seattle, Tucson

TABLE OF CONTENTS
LIST OF FIGURES
ii
LIST OF TABLES
I
OBJECTIVE
1
II
INTRODUCTION
2
III
PROGRESS TO DATE
3
6.2 Basic Research
3
6.3
Applied Research
9
6.4 Research Methodology
11
IV
GLOSSARY
12
REFERENCES
13
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LIST OF FIGURES
1.
Cluster Diagram for Static Targets
6
2. Cluster Diagram for Dynamic Targets
7
1
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LIST OF TABLES
1.
Preliminary Results for the Experimental Condition
3
2.
Preliminary Results for the Control Condition
4
3.
Comparison between Experiment and Control Conditions
4
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I OBJECTIVE
The object of this document is to provide an interim technical report on tasks 6.2 "Basic Research," 6.3
"Applied Research," and 6.4 "Research Methodology" as listed in the 1991 Statement of Work. This
report covers the time period from 4 February 1991 to 31 December 1991, and includes all subtasks .*
1
* This report constitutes the combined (i.e., first two) deliverables DI-MISC-80508 under contract number MDA908-91-C-0037.
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Il INTRODUCTION
Under Statement of Work items 6.2, 6.3, and 6.4 in contract MDA908-91-C-0037, the Cognitive
Sciences Laboratory of Science Applications International Corporation is tasked to conduct pheno-
menological research and analysis.
This document details the activity accomplished under these items and constitutes the interim report
covering the period from 4 February to 31 December 1991.
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III
PROGRESS TO DATE
This section describes the progress to date for each of the sub-tasks listed under items 6.2, 6.3, and 6.4 (basic
and applied research and research methodology, respectively). The section numbering corresponds to the
numbering in the Statement of Work.
6.2 Basic Research
6.2.1 Magnetoencephalography (MEG) Investigations
From 8 through 22 September 1991, the first of a three-part MEG investigation was carried out using
receivers from a variety of populations. Details of the protocol may be found in a separate document,
which has been approved by the Scientific Oversight Committee (SOC).1* It is beyond the scope of this
report to describe the protocol in detail; however, we provide a brief overview here.
Each of twelve receivers contributes ten blocks of data. Each block consists of ten two-minute runs each
of which contain approximately 100 remote and 100 pseudo stimuli. Each block of data is accompanied
by a control block of equal length during which the conditions are identical to the experimental block;
however, no receiver is present under the MEG. The dependent variable is the average effect size of the
RMS relative phase shift (i.e., prestimulus to poststimulus) of the dominant alpha rhythm.
Table 1 shows the results in the experimental condition for the first six receivers. The shaded receiver
number indicates those that were specified a priori as being among the formal participants. The average
effect size, the total number of stimuli and the p-value, which was determined by Monte Carlo tech-
niques, are shown as @, N, and p, respectively. The differences between the remote and pseudo stimuli
are shown as t-scores with df degrees of freedom and an associated p-value of p.
Table 1.
Preliminary Results for the Experimental Condition
Remote Stimuli
Pseudo Stimuli
Receiver
t(RS-PS)
df
p
100
N
p
3
N
p
70
0.110±0.053
578
0.74
0.050±0.071
575
24.10
1.615
8
7.24
308
0.086±0.059
577
1.94
0.056±0.032
576
8.95
0.970
8
18.03
172
0.081±0.052
445
5.86
0.030±0.037
431
20.66
1.596
6
8.07
53
0.009±0.033
449
38.82
-0.038±0.049
468
78.04
1.600
6
8.04
329
0.0002±0.014
449
49.33
-0.043±0.011
476
99.99
4.920
6
0.13
041
-0.080±0.037
414
98.55
-0.069±0.047
481
92.57
-0.376
6
63.99
Total
0.057±0.028
2053
1.81
0.011±0.027
2095
34.43
2.415
6
2.61
+
* Times 10-2
* References may be found at the end of this document.
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We see in Table 1, that formal receivers 708 and 308 produced individually significant results in the absolute
magnitude of the effect size (i.e., compared to zero). The totals shown in Table 1 do not include the data
from receivers 172 or 041, but do account for 45% of the expected data from the remaining receivers.
Nonetheless, trends are evident. Averaged over the formal participants, the absolute effect size is sig-
nificant (i.e., p ≤0.018) and the difference between remote and pseudo stimuli is significant (i.e., t =
2.415, df = 6, p ≤ 0.026).
Table 2 shows the same data for the control blocks (i.e., no receiver present).
Table 2.
Preliminary Results for the Control Condition
Remote Stimuli
Pseudo Stimuli
Receiver
t(RS-PS)
df
p
E
N
p
E
N
p
708
-0.010±0.037
573
60.67
0.034±0.036
588
17.05
-1.906
8
95.35
308
-0.020±0.031
573
73.01
-0.006±0.030
588
57.54
0.726
8
75.59
172
-0.004±0.036
476
58.61
0.076±0.056
470
5.46
-2.394
6
97.32
538
0.053±0.061
462
19.14
0.020±0.055
466
35.58
0.796
6
22.80
329
0.112±0.020
436
10-6
0.014±0.067
500
41.70
2.800
6
1.55
041
0.026±0.039
427
25.22
0.023±0.045
441
30.61
0.118
6
45.47
Total
0.027±0.030
2044
17.99
0.015±0.009
2142
38.83
0.779
6
23.29
* Times 10-2
The totals are for the formal participants only. The average absolute effect size and the difference be-
tween remote and pseudo stimuli are well within mean chance expectation.
Table 3 shows the comparison between the experiment and control conditions. The differences are
shown as t-scores with their associated p-values for the remote and pseudo stimuli, respectively. Re-
ceivers 708 and 308 show individually significant differences between the experiment and control condi-
tion for remote stimuli, and a trend is evident for the combined data of the formal participants (i.e., t =
1.464, df = 6, p ≤ 0.233). The combined result for the pseudo stimuli is within mean chance expectation
(i.e., t = - 0.314, df = 6, p ≤ 0.618).
Table 3.
Comparison between Experiment and Control Conditions
Remote Stimuli
Pseudo Stimuli
Receiver
t (E-C)
df
p
t(E-C)
df
p
708
4.592
8
0.09
0.448
8
33.28
308
3.526
8
0.39
3.161
8
0.67
172
2.701
6
1.77
-1.359
6
88.86
* Times 10-2
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Table 3. (continued)
Comparison between Experiment and Control Conditions
Remote Stimuli
Pseudo Stimuli
Receiver
t (E-C)
df
p
t(E-C)
df
p
538
-1.263
6
87.32
-1.580
6
91.73
329
-9.273
6
99.99
-1.681
6
92.87
041
-3.946
6
99.62
-2.794
6
98.43
Total
1.464
6
23.29
-0.314
6
61.81
* Times 10-2
We have collected and analyzed 15% of the total expected data. With a small sample it is difficult to
speculate about the final result; however, if the trends shown in Tables 1-3 continue, then we can expect
to replicate the earlier MEG result. Additionally, the new result would provide circumstantial evidence
that a technical error may have occurred in the original study. We believe that we may have mislabeled
remote and pseudo stimuli for one half of all of the data in the original study. This would account for the
overall significant result for the pseudo stimuli in that study.
The absolute magnitude of the effect size resulting from the neuromagnetic response to remote stimuli
is consistent with a "medium-sized" behavioral phenomenon according to accepted definitions.2
6.2.2 Data Patterns/Correlations
6.2.2.1 AC/Target Feature Correlations
We have reviewed our standard static target pool of 100 National Geographic magazine photographs
and a set of 30 clips of popular video movies and documentaries and analyzed them with regard to the
total change of Shannon entropy (AS). The complete details of that analysis can be found in the techni-
cal protocol, which is pending approval from the SOC.3
We identified eight clusters of static targets. Each cluster is comprised of photographs of near-constant
AS, but the clusters are significantly different from each other. From these eight clusters, we
constructed ten packets of five targets each. The targets within a packet were drawn from the same
entropy cluster; however, they were selected on the basis of visual dissimilarity to provide a basis for
visual rank ordering in the analysis of the AC data.
We identified four clusters of dynamic targets. Each cluster is comprised of video clips of near-constant
AS, but the clusters are significantly different from each other. From these four clusters, we constructed
four packets of five targets each. The targets within a packet were drawn from the same entropy cluster;
however, they were selected on the basis of visual dissimilarity to provide a basis for visual rank ordering
in the analysis of the AC data.
Figures 1 and 2 show the cluster diagrams for static and dynamic targets. In both cluster diagrams, only
the selected targets are shown with their associated AS, and dashed boxes indicate the cluster boundaries .*
Targets that were not included in the analysis packets are indicated by truncated cluster diagrams.
* Because two different technologies were used to digitize the static and dynamic targets, the scale of AS is not accurate between
static and dynamic targets. This scale factor does not affect the relative clustering and the differences will be normalized before
formal analysis of the AC begins.
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Difference of Averages (bits)
00
9º
92
93
05
1
1
1.703 -
1.835
1.018
1,771
1.762
2.064
1.880
1.913
1.900 -
1.948
0.858
0.874 .
0.909
0,830
0.8:00
Figure 1. Cluster Diagram for Static Targets
1.425
1.428
1.429
1.401
1.398
1.413
1.407
1.408
1,475
1.454
1,498
1.637
1.593
1.808
.815
1.234
1.224
1.286
1.286
1
.294
1.300
1.358
1.343 -
1.337
1.330
0.991
1.019
1.048
1.044
1.067
1,090
1.137
1.191 -
1.196 -

Difference of Averages (bits)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
-
-
1.805
1.886
1.694
1.577
1.628
2.545
2.354
2.281
2.248 -
. 2.249 -
-
1.970 -
2.007
2.058
2.041
2.032
3.033
2.794
2.904
3.583 -
3.312
Figure 2. Cluster Diagram for Dynamic Targets
6.2.2.2 Experiments Testing AC/Target Feature Correlations
Eight individuals will participate in an experiment that is scheduled to begin in early February. Each
receiver will participate in 40 trials that will be counter-balanced between sender and no sender condi-
tions and static and dynamic targets. The trials will be conducted remotely and will be unmonitored.
The AC responses will be sent by facsimile to the principal investigator, and will be analyzed using the
standard rank-order technique.
6.2.2.3 Geomagnetic Activity Correlations to AC
Background. Persinger, Tart, Krippner, and others have reported an association between AC perfor-
mance and indices of geomagnetic field (GMF) fluctuations. This work has shown that both anecdotal
reports of spontaneous AC, as well as higher-scoring laboratory AC trials, tend to occur at times of rela-
tively low GMF activity. The published evidence is not entirely compelling. The anecdotal AC data are
contaminated to an unknown extent with confounding factors of reporting bias, timing errors, and the
difficulty of establishing the veracity of such reports post hoc. The retrospective studies of laboratory
AC data, while largely free of these problems, have demonstrated only small correlations to GMF in-
dices. There is, however, increasing interest in the possibility of biological effects of small amplitude
magnetic field variations. Recent work has shown that melatonin and serotinin levels are modulated by
GMF activity both in vivo and in vitro. Other research is exploring the physics of possible mechanisms
whereby low-amplitude magnetic field variations could interact with cells.
Anomalous Cognition. To investigate the relationship between scores in laboratory AC experiments
and GMF fluctuations, we are combining various experimental databases. Currently, we have as-
sembled a database of approximately 1000 free-response AC trials from several laboratories. There is a
very small (i.e., Q = - 0.05, p ≤ 0.09) correlation between trial scores and GMF fluctuations in the ex-
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pected direction in this database. The correlation, however, is much larger (i.e., Q = - 0.40) in those
experiments where significant AC was demonstrated. We hope to extend the free response database to
include more trials from SRI International's extensive collection of trials where significant AC was ex-
hibited. We will complete a meta-analysis of all this material.
Epilepsy. We may discover more about the impact of GMF fluctuations on AC performance by research
on other behaviors that are modulated by very low frequency magnetic fields. Some literature suggests
a connection between idopathic and epileptic seizures and GMF fluctuations. Currently, we are assem-
bling a database of approximately 4000 seizures and seizure-related mortalities. Preliminary analysis of
a subset of this database suggests that both seizures and mortalities associated with seizures are weakly
correlated with elevated GMF noise levels. GMF noise might be depressing the melatonin level, result-
ing in an increased probability of seizure. We will examine this database with respect to recordings of
precise power levels in the ULF/ELF spectrum to clarify what region of the EM spectrum is responsible
for the effect.
6.2.2.4 AC Correlations Literature Search
Mr. Charles Honorton of the Psychophysical Research Laboratories (PRL) has been subcontracted to
conduct a detailed key-word parapsychology literature search for potential correlations of AC perfor-
mance and external variables (e.g., personality, IQ), and to perform meta-analyses where appropriate.
The meta-analyses potion of this task has begun.
6.2.3 Theoretical Issues
6.2.3.1 Assessment of Theoretical Constructs
Currently, one senior research physicist has been identified who is anxious to explore thermodynamic
and general relativistic models to formulate hypotheses for the mechanism of AC.
6.2.3.2 Targeting
As part of the subcontract, the Psychophysical Research Laboratories are nearing completion of a de-
tailed design to explore the potential of a beacon as a targeting mechanism. In addition, the experi-
ment, which is described in Section 6.2.2.2 above, also explores the role of a sender in AC experiments.
6.2.3.3 Communication
We have designed a computer-based binary AC experiment that uses sequential analysis to enhance AC
effects. The details of the experimental design can be found in our technical protocol, which is under
review by the SOC.4 Sequential analysis will improve a sample hit rate from 60 to 85%. We show in the
technical protocol that this enhancement is 21% better than a one-in-three majority vote procedure.
We expect to begin the experiment in early March 1992.
6.2.4 Altered States
6.2.4.1 Lucid Dreaming
The Lucidity Institute has been subcontracted to conduct a pilot experiment to study AC in lucid dreams.
The details of the experimental design can be found in our technical protocol, which is under review by the
SOC.5 Experienced receivers and lucid dreamers will individually be given carefully double wrapped and
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sealed targets drawn randomly from our standard set of National Geographic magazine photographs. With
the aid of a DreamLight, a device to help induce a lucid dream, the experimental task is to:
· become lucid in a dream
· open the sealed envelope (i.e., while still dreaming)
. study its content
. wake up and record the dream impressions.
Analysis of the responses will follow the standard protocol for rank order judging.
As an introduction to lucid dreaming, the Lucidity Institute has conducted a three-day workshop for the
participants in the experiment. We expect to begin experimental trials by March 1992.
6.2.5 Energetics
6.2.5.1 Anomalous Perturbation Protocol
There has been no action on this item during the reporting period.
6.3 Applied Research
6.3.1 MEG Developments
6.3.1.1 Identification
Preliminary analysis of responses to direct light stimuli shows a qualitative correspondence with native
AC ability. Other factors, such as motivation or ambition, may also play an important role in identifying
high-quality receivers.
If the preliminary results from the MEG phase-shift measurements are true, then that variable may be a
more reliable indicator of native AC ability.
6.3.2 Correlations/Pattern Analysis
6.3.2.1 Correlations
There has been no action on this item during the reporting period.
6.3.2.2 Beacon Conditions
PRL has been subcontracted to conduct a test of the sender/no sender condition in Ganzfeld experi-
ments. A protocol is currently being prepared for review by the SOC, and the laboratory is nearing
completion for the experiment. Computer equipment is in place and computer programs, which are to
be used in the experiment, were demonstrated to a visiting SAIC employee in September 1991.
6.3.3 Training
6.3.3.1 Empirical Training Analysis
An in-depth analysis of one in-use training procedure has been initiated by Professor Daryl Bem, of the
psychology department of Cornell University. Analysis has not yet been completed.
6.3.3.2 Potential New Methods
There has been no action on this item during the reporting period.
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6.3.4 Applications
6.3.4.1 New Approaches
We were asked to use AC search techniques to locate a missing student pilot. While two receivers sug-
gested similar locations, the pilot was eventually found in a different location than suggested by our
receivers.
6.3.4.2 Communications
We have developed a technical protocol, which is currently under review by the SOC, that applies stan-
dard Bose-Chaudhuri-Hocquenghem (BCH) codes to AC analysis.6. The BCH code that was selected
includes two message bits and three check bits and will correct for all single errors and some double
errors.
Table 3 shows AC-target attributes whose presence corresponds to a binary one and whose absence cor-
responds to a binary zero. We have constructed ten target packs of four targets, each according to the
following binary words: 00000, 0110, 10101, 11011. For example, a target in pack eight that corresponds
to 11011 would only include people, natural setting with vegetation, and buildings. A jungle village
scene would be an example of an appropriate photograph.
Table 3.
Attributes for Ten Target Packs
Bit Position
Pack
0
1
2
3
4
1
Repeat
Motif
Action
Mountains/Cliffs
Vehicle
Manmade
Structure
2
Towers
Vehicles
Mountains/Cliffs
Water
Buildings
3
Vehicle
Arch/Dome
Stepped
Buildings
Vegetation
4
Building
Circle
Rectangle
Triangles
Repeat Motif
5
Square/
Rectangle
Mountains/
Cliffs
Action
Natural
Arch/Dome
6
Mountain/
Hill
Water
Action
Building
Natural
7
Action
Water
Industrial
Vehicle
people
8
People
Natural
Vehicle
Vegetation
Buildings
9
Water
Mountains/
Hills
Buildings
Rural
Road/Bridge
10
People
Industrial
Mountains/Hills
Tower
Vehicle
For each trial, the protocol calls for one randomly selected target to be available for one week. During
that time, six receivers will individually record their impressions of the intended target and send their
responses by facsimile to the principal investigator.
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The analysis will proceed in three steps:
(1) An SAIC employee, not otherwise associated with the experiment, will conduct a rank order analy-
sis against the remaining targets in the selected pack.
(2) From the response, the SAIC analyst will answer an appropriate set of yes/no questions that are
keyed to the target pack.
(3) The receivers will also be asked to answer an appropriate set of yes/no questions that are keyed to
the target pack.
The rank order technique will be used to assess the magnitude of the AC in the study, and the binary
answers will be use to assess the enhancement resulting from the BCH code.
6.3.4.3 Enhancement
There has been no action on this item during the reporting period.
6.3.4.4 Analysis
There has been no action on this item during the reporting period.
6.4 Research Methodology
6.4.1 Scientific Oversight Committee
The Scientific Oversight Committee (SOC) consists of five members drawn from academia. The mem-
bership includes a physicist, an astronomer, a psychologist, a statistician, and a neuroscientist. All of
the protocols shown in the References Section are either under review or have been approved by the
SOC. We anticipate that the first meeting of the SOC will be during the second week of July 1992.
6.4.2 Institutional Review Board
The Institutional Review Board (IRB) consists of seven members. They include a biostatistician, a
Buddhist priest, a neuropsychiatrist, an ear-nose-and-throat medical doctor, a neuroscientist, a lawyer,
and a retired military medical officer. The human-use portions of all of the protocols shown in the Ref-
erences Section have been approved by the IRB.
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IV GLOSSARY
Not all the terms defined below are germane to this report, but they are included here for completeness.
In a typical anomalous mental phenomena (AMP) task, we define:
· Anomalous Cognition-A form of information transfer in which all known sensorial stimuli are ab-
sent. That is, some individuals are able to gain access, by as yet an unknown process, to information
that is not available to the known sensorial channels.
· Receiver -- An individual who attempts to perceive and report information about a target.
· Agent-An individual who attempts to influence a target system.
. Target-An item that is the focus of an AMP task (e.g., person, place, thing, event).
. Target Designation-A method by which a specific target, against the backdrop of all other possible
targets, is identified to the receiver (e.g., geographical coordinates).
· Sender/Beacon-An individual who, while receiving direct sensorial stimuli from an intended target,
acts as a putative transmitter to the receiver.
· Monitor-An individual who monitors an AC session to facilitate data collection.
. Session-A time period during which AC data are collected.
· Protocol-A template for conducting a structured data collection session.
. Response -- Material that is produced during an AC session in response to the intended target.
· Feedback -- After a response has been secured, information about the intended target is displayed to
the receiver.
· Analyst-An individual who provides a quantitative measure of AC.
· Speciality -- A given receiver's ability to be particularly successful with a given class of targets (e.g.,
people as opposed to buildings).
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REFERENCES
1. E. C. May and W. L. W. Luke, "Technical Protocol for the MEG Investigation," Scientific Oversight
Protocol, Science Applications International Corporation, Menlo Park, CA (August 1991).
2. J. Cohen, Statistical Power Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences (rev. ed.), Academic Press, New
York (1977).
3. E. C. May and N. D. Lantz, "Target and Sender Dependencies in Anomalous Cognition,"
Scientific Oversight Protocol, Science Applications International Corporation, Menlo Park, CA
(December 1991).
4. E. C. May, "Enhancing Anomalous Cognition of Binary Targets," Scientific Oversight Protocol,
Science Applications International Corporation, Menlo Park, CA (December 1991).
5. E. C. May and S. LaBerge, "Anomalous Cognition in Lucid Dreams," Scientific Oversight Protocol,
Science Applications International Corporation, Menlo Park, CA (December 1991).
6. W. L. W. Luke and E. C. May, "Enhancing Detection of AC with Binary Coding," Scientific Oversight
Protocol, Science Applications International Corporation, Menlo Park, CA (December 1991).
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