CIA-RDP96-00789R000200060002-2

** 12-A
Approved.CADCT
[9 -16 Sep 87]
A period of feinting and maneuvering between ideological
antagonists.
Aircraft approach escorted groups and are chased
away. Non-protected, non-escorted vessels subject to
interdiction, harrassing activities and outright attacks.
A
small-boat/commando attack on a land facility on the west shore
of a large body of water (the Gulf?). AOL/S impression of direct
aircraft interdiction of a military facility (AOL missile site)
somewhat inland on the eastern side of large body of water.
Impression of a helicopter crash resulting in
injuries/fatalities; body being hoisted from water.
Serious
4
damage to or destruction of a large maritime target located as
indicated in sketch below -- approximately 2/3 of way through the
time window.
14 th?
land
4
land
walter
Impression is that the primary antagonist doesn't want to
directly provoke the escorting power; can't afford the
consequences direct provocation would bring, since loss of any
resources in such an unproductive manner would seriously affect
national goals or well-being.
Intent is to keep escorting power
pushed to the line, but no further, trying to wear down ability
or desire to persist in current policy direction -- attacking and
wearing down low risk economic targets all around escorting
power, but leaving the power itself alone.
[17-24 Sep 1987]
AOL/s of aircraft exploding in air, impression of missile
contrail leading from afterdeck of surface vessel to aircraft.
Impression of a vessel rescuing people from water around another
vessel -- perhaps burning.
Doesn't seem to have been an escorted
vessel but an "object lesson" -- victimized in vicinity of
escorting and escorted vessels as form of intimidation.
Brief
impression of submarine; further impression of ships sitting idly
because of admin or bureaucratic holdup.
Approved For Release 200 CDCT
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