CIA-RDP96-00792R000700980001-3

.
68
Papers
collapsed across time of night within stage (e.g., early and late
REM awakenings averaged to give one REM value), no significant
differences were found among waking, REM, and Stage 2 trials for
any PK task. Since the afternoon and nocturnal trials did not vary
with the presumed underlying circadian temperature curve, it would
appear that PK performance was not affected by the diurnal sleep/
wake rhythm.
Control Trials (PKC). Data from the control trials were also
analyzed to check that the RNG did not deviate from randomness
even after several hours of continuous operation. The overall mean
of these trials falls exactly at chance level, and an ANOVA finds
no effect of gender, stage of sleep, or time of night (the latter
would be expected if RNG bias developed over the course of the
long experimental session). However, a marginally significant
(p = . 052) stage-by-time interaction surfaced. This is precisely
the interaction predicted in Hypothesis 3, but to find it in the
control data rather than in the experimental trials is disconcerting.
Explanations relating to observer effect pr RNG bias are rejected
(for reasons that space does not permit detailing here). Since these
trials were the last element in a very long and demanding procedure,
the possibility remains that this interaction may be a "release-of-
effort" effect on the experimenter's part.
Discussion
The results of this study do not support the predictions made
at the outset. No systematic differences were found between REM
and Stage 2 PK trials nor between the waking and sleep conditions.
The time-of-night variable emerged only in the correlation with SSS
ratings for the PKR trials and in interaction with the gender vari-
able for the PKE trials. No direct evidence was found for a "release-
of-effort" effect after overt trials with immediate feedback.
The major finding in this study was an interaction between
stage of sleep and gender for the experimental trials only. This
effect had not been predicted and is somewhat surprising, since
gender often bears no relationship to psi performance. Due to the
small sample size in the female group (N = 10) this finding should
be replicated before being taken as definitive.
A major methodological problem in this experiment is that the
PK trials were scheduled
a considerable time after awakening from
the preceding sleep stagej, due to a conflict with other experimental
procedures. By the time the PK trials took place, the subject had
been awake and engaged in various cognitive tasks for approximately
half an hour. For this reason it would be more correct to call the
nocturnal trials "waking PK" rather than considering them as strong-
ly influenced by the preceding stage of sleep. The failure to find
a stage difference between REM and Stage 2 supports this view.
69
-
Psychological Correlates
What is surprising is the failure to find differences between the
afternoon control and the nocturnal PK trials, since some diurnal
variation in performance was expected. 7(However, it may be noted
that in this same experiment, performance on such cognitive tasks
as digit span, anagrams, reaction time, and several perceptual
tasks also did not differ between daytime and nocturnal sessions;
in this context the PK data are at least consistent with the pattern
of performance on other tasks.)
In conclusion, this experiment attempted to study PK per-
formance as a function of (presumably) powerful physiological vari-
ables of sleep stage and time of night. However, overall differ-
ences between REM and non-REM awakenings, or between early and
late arousals, were not found for any measure. For methodological
reasons this study cannot be regarded as a definitive test of these
variables. Replication with PK as the primary focus of the experi-
ment, with PK trials in closer proximity to the preceding sleep
stage, would be required before any firm statement can be made.
BUILDING A PK TRAP: THE ADAPTIVE TRIAL SPEED METHOD
J.C. Jacobs, J.A.G. Michels, + B. Millar, t and M-L. F.L.
Millar-De Bruyne (Synchronicity Research Unit, P.O.
Box 7625, 5601JP Eindhoven, The Netherlands)
Psi can be described as altering the output probabilities of a
random number generator (RNG). It does not matter whether the
RNG is electronic, mechanical, or a living system. This view is
developed particularly in the observational theories. Most lucid
among these is Schmidt's mathematical model of psi. The basic idea
is that the output probability of an RNG is changed by its connec-
tion to a so-called psi source. Feedback is crucial.
Another view of psi within the area of altering probabilities
has been expressed by Breederveld (Research Letter, Parapsychol-
ogy Laboratory, University of Utrecht, 1976 [No. 7], 1-9). Psi
has a tendency to cluster into successful and unsuccessful periods:
psi can be seen as cyclical. Breederveld suggests, further, that
this clustering is a reflection, in the outside world, of the internal
psychological states of the observer.
Schmidt has discussed the possibility that the psi source
fluctuates in strength. But the original observational theories of
Walker and Schmidt have little to say about what observation is.
Recently, however, Millar (RIP 1986, 107-108) has proposed the
Quasi-Motor Model, which explicitly deals with the observer's psy-
chology. Feedback to the psi source is preprocessed by part of
Approved For Release 2000/08/15 : CIA-RDP96-00792R000700980001-3
...
Approved For Release 2000/08/15 : CIA-RDP96-00792R000700980001-3

70
Papers
Approved For Release 2000/08/15 : CIA-RDP96-00792R000700980001-3
71
the normal human information-processing system. The preprocess-
ing "program" may bring the external world into congruence with
the observer's internal world.
Within this general theoretical framework, a major project on
cyclical psi has developed within our research unit. Breederveld
first devised a method to trap periods of psi-hitting, based on a
stopping strategy. In his hands, this initially gave very promis-
ing scores. Later experiments lend some support to the view that
it is a method for obtaining extrachance scores. However, the re-
sults are not reliable and the efficiency is very low. If the period
of the psi cycle were irregular and only sometimes greater than the
duration of the experimental set, such deficiencies would be expected.
Jacobs next devised a novel procedure, the adaptive trial
speed (ATS) method, to trap even relatively short periods of psi-
hitting. The basic idea is that trial speed is increased after a hit
and decreased after a miss. The intention is that the sample fre-
quency locks in to the psi cycle: during periods of psi-hitting,
more trials are performed than in missing periods. This should
lead to extrachance scoring in PK experiments.
This paper deals with explorations of the effectiveness of
Jacobs' ATS method. Our unorthodox policy is to use self-test ex-
periments. In our view, the classical multisubject psi test is often
dominated by experimenter psi: it is, thus, merely a disguised ver-
sion of the self-test experiment. For security reasons, such a de-
sign is frowned upon by the Rhinean school. But if results look
promising, more security-oriented work can follow. We report here
the first 8 of a planned series of 12 experiments; 4 different subject /
experimenters carried out 2 experiments each.
Procedure
A computer /RNG set-up was used. The RNGs are units from
our standard noise-based series. Philips P2000 computers were em-
ployed. The program is in BASIC, with linked machine code rou-
tines. The standard experiment consists of 100 runs, each of 500
trials. A trial involves sampling the RNG, which produces 0 or 1
with equal probability; the number generated is displayed on a TV
monitor. The 1 output is the target. After a hit (1), the time to
the next trial is shortened by one step; a miss results in an inter-
trial interval that is one step longer. There are 12 speed steps in
the range 3 s to 100 ms. As a hedge against possible bias, the
output of the RNG is inverted in a pseudorandomly chosen 50 of
100 runs. The results for each run are automatically recorded on
digital tape for later analysis. Each subject /experimenter worked
in his own home, at his convenience; on average, 5 to 10 runs,
taking half an hour to an hour, were performed per day.
Psychological Correlates
Results, Refinement, and Further Results
In the first experiment Jacobs obtained 303 hits above mean
chance expectation (MCE) in 50,000 trials: Z = 2.71, p < . 003.
Michels achieved an almost identical significant score: 304 hits
above MCE, Z = 2.72, p < . 003. In contrast, the Millars obtained
only chance scoring (for Millar Z = - 1.53 and for Millar-De Bruyne
Z = - 0.66). In round 2, the Millars' null results were replicated
(for Millar Z = 1.30 and for Millar-De Bruyne Z = 1.44).
For this work a fairly extensive assortment of separate con-
trol experiments were performed. These gave the system a clean
bill of health; they were, however, time consuming. Consequently,
at this point, a methodological refinement was introduced ("double
tick" sampling). For every trial two random bits were taken in
quick succession. One of these was used as the experimental (E)
trial proper, while the other served as control (C). Which of the
bits became E was determined, on the fly, by a pseudorandom ser-
ies. E and C were thus identical except that only E trials were
presented as feedback to the subject.
With this improvement, Jacobs and Michels each ran a second
experiment. In this case Jacobs' results (and controls) were at
chance level (Z = 0.93). But Michels again produced a significant
outcome (319 hits above MCE, Z = 2.85, p < . 002): the concurrent
control trials were at chance (Z = - 0.30).
Discussion and Conclusions
The subjects scored true to type. The enthusiastic origina-
tor of the ATS method, Jacobs, succeeded in his first experiment
but obtained only chance scores in the second. The Millars ten-
dered support for the binomial theorem. Michels (JSPR, 1987, 119-
129) has recently reported a highly significant series of self-test
PK experiments, based on a stopping strategy. Here he continued
his unbroken run of virtuoso performances.
In the midst of such subject variability, is it possible to say
anything about the effectiveness of the ATS method? Chance re-
sults were obtained by both Jacobs (Z = 0.64) and Michels (Z =
0.24) in separate experiments with fixed trial speed. However, it
would be naive to put much weight on the results of this "same
subjects" design; both sophisticated subject /experimenters had an
investment in the superiority of the ATS method. Less direct but
more satisfactory is the difference with previous work. Using
Schmidt's psi quotient, Michels' previous highly successful experi-
ments pale by comparison: the current work is about five times as
efficient in the sense that only one-fifth of the number of days is
needed to achieve the same significance. This affords some sug-
gestion that the ATS method really works, at least for Michels.
Approved For Release 2000/08/15 : CIA-RDP96-00792R000700980001-3

72
Papers
The ATS investigations have, as spin-offs, shed light on
Michels' abilities. The work reported here shows that he is not
limited to one restricted experimental procedure. In the current
experiments, too, the timing of RNG sampling is determined auto-
matically: there is no sample switch, as in the earlier experiments.
Consequently, skilled timing taking advantage of hypothetical peri-
ods of local nonrandomness is ruled out as a viable explanation of
Michels' success.
In Experiment 2, with built-in concurrent controls, Michels'
scoring was restricted to E trials, while the unseen C trials were
unaffected. This strongly suggests that the effect is due to PK à
la observational theories.
In the separate control experiment run by Michels to match
his first ATS experiment, it was noticed that the number of hits
(50,000) is exactly MCE. This seemed too good to be true (p <
. 008 [post hoc]). The control (simulation) runs in Michels' pre-
vious work (JSPR, 1987, 119-129) were therefore examined: in
each of the three simulations, the results were also suspiciously
close to MCE. For Michels, then, it seems that a separate "con-
trol" experiment may be just another kind of PK test, in which the
goal is to score as close as possible to MCE. Jahn et al. (RIP
1985, 9-13) have reported similar findings.
Approved For Release 2000/08/15 : CIA-RDP96-00792R000700980001-3
1
1
1
:
Continuing this line of thought, the striking correspondence
between the first experiments of Jacobs and Michels was examined.
Not only the total scores but also the time course were significant-
ly alike. These observations suggest that Michels may have used
his psi abilities to copy Jacobs' results. If so, Michels' PK is quite
susceptible to suggestion.
These incidental findings about Michels' ability are a valuable
addition to knowledge about this PK star. The ATS method will be
explored further.
EVENT-RELATED BRAIN POTENTIALS AND A
PHENOMENOLOGICAL MODEL OF PSI-CONDUCIVE STATES
Norman S. Don, f Charles A. Warren, " Bruce E. McDonough,
and Thomas F. Collura (Kairos Foundation and the University
of Illinois at Chicago). (Address correspondence to Norman S.
Don, Ph.D., 405 N. Wabash Avenue, Suite 4803, Chicago,
IL 60611. )
A high-scoring subject, Olaf Jonsson, identified three altered
states of consciousness associated with psi. He termed these
73
Psychological Correlates
Condition One, Condition Two, and Condition Three, the last being
the prime state of psi. Through the process of participant-
observation a description of these states was elaborated which was
similar to Carl Jung's writings on the psychological aspects of
medieval alchemy. Two experiments were performed to investigate
the event-related brain potentials (ERPs) associated with this
phenomenological model and an objective, clairvoyant task. The
term ERP is here defined broadly as that transient brain electrical
activity that occurs time locked to specific events -- either related to
external events, endogenous events, or overt motor behavior.
The purposes of this single-subject study were: first, to '
record brain-wave data from several increasingly psi-conducive al-
tered states of consciousness (State Study), and a forced-choice,
five-response clairvoyant task (Prediction Study); secondly, to
perform analyses in the time and frequency domains to discriminate
correct (RTE) from incorrect (WRO) guesses and the various states
of consciousness; thirdly, to cross-validate predictive models on
additional, independent RTE and WRO trials.
Elaboration of the altered states description was derived from
participant-observation of a subject who had performed at above-
chance levels in previous psi tasks (Warren and Don, RIP 1986,
56-61). The report by Warren and Don presented evidence that
both time- and frequency-domain ERP data could be used to sig-
nificantly discriminate RTE from WRO trials in a clairvoyant task.
The present study continued the investigation of ERP effects and
in addition also studied the subject's self-reported altered states of
consciousness and the ERP relationship between altered states and
clairvoyant performance.
In the first experiment (State Study), ERPs were recorded
while the subject cycled repeatedly through these three states and
a control condition (mental arithmetic). In the Prediction Study
ERPs were recorded during a clairvoyant task. In both experi-
ments ERPs were recorded over an 8000 msec interval prior to each
subject response from 5 EEG scalp sites, one bipolar EOG montage
(below and above the right eye), and one EMG montage. Electrodes
were placed at Fz, C3, Pz, C4, and Oz scalp sites referred to linked
ears using a forehead ground. Grass model 7P122 amplifiers with
eight-second time constants were used in a Grass Model 78 poly-
graph. On the EMG channel only, the time constant was 0.2 sec.
The one-half amplitude high frequency cut-off was set at 60 Hz on
the EEG and EOG channels and 75 Hz on the EMG channel. A 60
Hz notch filter was used on the EEG amplifiers. The EEG, EOG,
and EMG data and event channel were digitized at 125 samples/sec
(8 msec per datum). A trial consisted of 8000 msec of data (1000
data points) per channel.
In the State Study the subject initiated the beginning of a
new trial each time he entered a new Condition (in his subjective
Approved For Release 2000/08/15 : CIA-RDP96-00792R000700980001-3
1