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MAY 25 '95 03:58PM AIR
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FAX TRANSMITTAL
American Institutes for Research
3333 K Street N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20007
Tel: (202) 342-5000
FAX: (202) 342-5033
DATE:
5/25/95
THIS DOCUMENT BEING SENT TO:
5/32
SG11
Office of Research & Development
SENT TO FAX NUMBER:
SG1B
Mike Mumford
SENT BY:
NUMBER OF PAGES
(Including cover sheet)
10
PROJECT NUMBER:
If you do not receive the entire transmittal of this document, please contact:
Millie Carter
at (202)
342-5143
Thank you.
REMARKS:
Here is a DRAFT of the remote viewing proposal for your
inspection. I will call tomorrow to see if you want any
changes. Look forward to talking with you.
Mike Mumford
8:30 GHZ.
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A Proposal to Review the
Remote Viewing Research Program
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In their continuing quest to improve effectiveness, many organizations have sought
techniques that might be used to enhance performance. For the most part, the candidate
techniques come from rather traditional lines of inquiry stressing interventions; such as
selection, training, and performance appraisal. A host of other performance enhancement
techniques, however, have also been suggested. These techniques range from implicit
learning and the development of team performance capacities to the enhancement of
paranormal abilities.
In the mid-1980s, at the request of the Army Research Institute, the National Research
Council of the National Academy of Sciences established a blue ribbon panel charged with
evaluating the evidence bearing on the effectiveness of a wide variety of techniques for
enhancing human performance. This review was conducted under the overall direction of
David A. Goslin, then Executive Director of the Commission on Behavioral and Social
Sciences and Education (CBASSE), and now President of the American Institutes for
Research (AIR). The review panel's report, Enhancing Human Performance: Issues,
Theories, and Techniques, was published by the National Academy Press in 1988 and
summarized by Swets and Bjork (1990). They note that although the panel found some
support for certain alternative performance enhancement techniques, for example, guided
imagery, little or no support was found for the usefulness of many other techniques, such as
learning during sleep and remote viewing.
perhaps
Although the findings of the National Research Council (NRC) were predominantly
negative with regard to remote viewing, work on remote viewing has continued under the
various government
programs ]
auspices of the Office of Basic Research of the United States Army Research Institute.]
During this period, 50 to 100 additional studies of remote viewing have been: conducted. At
least some of these studies represent significant attempts to address the methodological
problems noted in the review conducted by the National Research Council panel.
various govern
ment pro -
grams. ]
At the request of Congress, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) is considering
assuming responsibility for this program,. As part of its decision-making process, the CIA
activity
wants to evaluate the research conducted since the report of the NRC. The evaluation would
help determine a) whether this research has any long-term practical value for the intelligence
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A Proposal to Review the Remote Viewing Program
community, and b) if it does, what changes should be made in methods and approach to
enhance the value of remote viewing research.
Work Plan
The American Institutes for Research (AIR) is pleased to be able to respond to the
Central Intelligence Agency's request for assistance in its review of the remote viewing!
research program. In this section we outline our work plan which provides for a timely
assessment of this research program, based upon review of the remote viewing research
conducted since the NRC's review.
Objectives and General Approach
Panel Selection. In accordance with the NRC model, we propose to establish a blue
ribbon panel of two distinguished experts. In order to ensure a fair and objective evaluation
of the remote viewing research, the two panel members will have a background in paranormal
phenomena with knowledge of the remote viewing literature. One panel member will be
selected who has an open, but skeptical, perspective on paranormal phenomena. The second
panel member will be selected to represent a more favorable, but nonetheless
methodologically sophisticated, perspective. This panel will be supplemented by statistical
and methodological experts at AIR. The supplemental review team will be selected because
of their strong credentials in research methodology, but without prior background in the study
of paranormal phenomena. This particular configuration was chosen to help ensure a
balanced, open, but methodologically rigorous, review. The entire effort will be under the
overall supervision of Dr. Goslin.
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Initial Screening by AIR. The following procedures will be used in structuring the
review process. Work will begin on the review project as soon as the Army Research
$45.
Institute's Basic Research Office and the Central Intelligence Agency have assembled all
research reports completed since the NRC's review and those reports have been delivered to
staff at AIR. Staff members will then read each report and organize them for members of the
review panel in terms of research methodology, laboratory, and findings.
Initial Screening by Reviewers. The resulting packet of materials will be delivered to
members of the review panel. Panel members will then be asked to provide an initial review
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A Proposal to Review the Remote Viewing Program
of these studies, identifying those studies evidencing major methodological flaws. This initial
review will be completed within one month after the start of the project.
First Review Panel Meeting. After panel members have had the opportunity to
conduct their initial review, they will be asked to meet at the Palo Alto or Washington office
of AIR. The choice of meeting site will be selected at a later date in consultation with the
contract monitor. The major purposes of this first meeting are:
To agree on criteria for report review
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To identify those studies which should be eliminated from the review process
because they evidence fatal flaws and to identify those studies which warrant
the most serious attention
.
To determine whether interviews with the principal investigators will be
necessary.
The most critical aspect of the first meeting is to determine the corpus of studies to be
reviewed. In preparing their final individual reports, panel members will consider only those
studies which survive this first-cut review, giving special attention to studies held to represent
the best, highest quality research. AIR will assist in this identification process by providing
additional methodological and statistical expertise.
Main Review. After the initial meeting, panel members will be given one month to
review the remote viewing studies deemed worthy of serious consideration. After completing
this review, each panel member will be asked to prepare a short, 10-to-20-page report in
which they assess:
the major findings obtained
.
the validity of these findings
potential practical applications of these findings
.
issues to be addressed in future research, if any
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A Proposal to Review the Remote Viewing Program
If panel members feel it is necessary to interview the principal investigators, AIR staff,
with the cooperation of the contract monitor, will arrange these interviews. The interviews
will be conducted in the month following the initial panel meeting.
Panel members will be asked to deliver their reports to staff at AIR. AIR staff will
then write a brief summary report identifying the general themes and basic conclusions in the
panel members' reports and the areas of remaining disagreements. This summary report will
be mailed to panel members two weeks prior to the final panel meeting.
During this period, staff from AIR will interview potential users of remote viewing
data in the Department of Defense and the intelligence community. The interviewers will
describe the remote viewing phenomenon, and briefly summarize what is known about the
phenomenon. They will then ask the potential users to indicate whether or not they could use
this type of information, the value they would place on it, and how it might be used in their
work. The results of these interviews will be presented to panel members at the outset of the
initial meeting to provide a context for the review effort.
allons
Final Review Panel Meeting, Panel members along with AIR staff will be assembled
for a final meeting at the Washington office of AIR, The main purpose of this final meeting
of the review panel will be to achieve consensus with respect to the basic conclusions
presented in the report. We anticipate discussion of the areas of disagreement; again, AIR's
methodological and statistical experts will facilitate these discussions. Any changes
recommended by panel members will be discussed and a consensus will be reached on the
final changes to be made in the summary report.
Final Report.' AIR senior staff will make the indicated changes in the two-week
period following the second panel meeting. The revised summary report will then be
submitted to responsible personnel at the Central Intelligence Agency and to members of the
expert review panel as a draft final report. This report will address the major issue of
whether the remote viewing research program achieves its stated objectives. We will
consider;
the success of remote viewing studies
potential methodological problems in these studies
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if warranted, procedural revisions to be considered in future research
.
the feasibility of applying this research in the intelligence community
Comments concerning the draft final report will be solicited during the following two
weeks. Any indicated changes in the draft report will be made during the following week,
Timeline
This work plan indicates that the review process should be completed in roughly three
months following delivery of the research reports to AIR, The timeline describing major
project tasks and the anticipated completion dates is presented in Figure 1. To summarize,
during the first two weeks of this project, the research reports will be reviewed by staff at
AIR and prepared for delivery to panel members. Panel members will be given two weeks to
complete their initial review.
The first meeting of the panel will occur one month after the start of the project.
Members of the review panel will be given a month to review the critical studies, interview
principal investigators, and prepare their reports. During this period AIR staff will interview
potential user groups. Senior staff at AIR will prepare the summary report during the next
two-week period, and any indicated revisions in this summary report will be made in the two
weeks following the second panel meeting.
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Thus, the draft final report should be available for review by staff at the Central
Intelligence Agency three months after receipt of the reports. Assuming that the relevant
reports are made available in early June 1995, the project should be completed by early
September 1995.
This timeline is ambitious. It is typically difficult to obtain a comprehensive panel
review of a research area in a three-month period. However, by carefully structuring the
review process and minimizing burdens on panel members, it should prove possible to
complete the project in this time frame.
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A Proposal to Review the Remote Viewing Program
Staffing
As previously mentioned, the entire review process will be supervised by Dr. David A.
Goslin, former Director of the Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
of the NRC, and now President of AIR. This will ensure continuity of approach and method
in the review process. Dr. Michael Mumford, a Senior Research Psychologist, and Dr.
Andrew Rose, Chief Scientist of AIR's Washington Research Center will serve as co-project
directors. Mr. George R. Wheaton, Vice President of AIR and Director of the Washington
Research Center, will serve as Senior Reviewer. To supplement the review team, AIR will
have available Dr. Donald Mclaughlin, Chief Scientist of AIR's Palo Alto office. In
addition, AIR will have available on a consultative basis Dr. Lincoln Moses, one of the
United States' most eminent statisticians.
Selection of the two external members of the review panel will be made in
collaboration with the contract monitor. However, to expedite the review process, AIR staff
have already contacted two world-renowned experts in the area of paranormal phenomena, Dr.
Raymond Hyman, Professor of Psychology at the University of Oregon, and Dr. Jessica Utts,
Director of the Statistical Laboratory at the University of California, Davis. Both have agreed
to participate in the project subject to approval by the CIA and their resumes will be
submitted to the contract monitor for review immediately upon initiation of the contract.
Budget
The anticipated budget for this effort is presented in Figure 2. Support is requested
for Dr. Michael Mumford and Dr. Andrew Rose to conduct interviews, participate in the panel
meetings, and prepare the final report. The only other personnel time requested is for a
secretary for report preparation and a research assistant.
The major other direct costs are the support requested for payment of the panel
members and travel for AIR staff and panel members. Minor other direct costs are for
communications, photocopying, and local travel.
The total support requested is
SGFOIA2
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A Proposal to Review the Remote Viewing Program
References
Druckman, D., & Swets, J.A. (1988). Enhancing human performance: Issues, theories, and
techniques. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
Swets, J.A., & Bjork, R.A. (1990). Enhancing human performance: An evaluation of new
age techniques considered by the Army. Psychological Science, 1, 85-96.
1
,
7
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AMERICAN INSTITUTES FOR RESEARCH
Remote Viewing
Rate
Days
Cost
SGFOIA2
Key Personnel
A. Rose (Chief Scientist)
M. Mumford (Senior Research Scientist)
J. Stern (Research Assistant)
D. Hughes (Clerical)
Subtotal Personnel
Salary Increase Pool @ 6%
Total Personnel
Fringe Benefits
Total Salaries and Fringe Benefits
Overhead
Total Salaries, Fringe, and Overhead
Other Direct Costs
Panel Members
Travel
Photocopy
Telephone/Fax
Local Travel
Total Other Direct Costs
Subtotal
General and Administrative
Total Costs
Fee
TOTAL COSTS AND FEE
Figure 2. Budget
*
DRAFT
Please add a separate task for " ad hoc consultation by AIR
senior personnel and To brief final report to Congress.
SGFOIA2
SG11
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more
for travel in
increase for
consulting
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briefing
add 5K

MAY 25 '95 04:01PM AIR
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Weeks
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Preparation
Report acquisition and organization
Initial report screening
Review
First panel meeting
Review of key reports
User interviews
Investigator interviews
Panel reports
Summary report
Second meeting
Draft final report
Review
Delivery of revised final report
Figure 1. Timeline for completing project tasks
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UNCLASSIFIED
DATE:
30 May 95
EMERGING
PROGRAMS
GROUP
FROM: ORD/EPG
.
846 AMES BUILDING
SG1B
TO:
Mike Mumford
FAX NUMBER: (202) 342-5033
FROM:
SUBJECT:
Proposal
SG1B
PLEASE NOTIFY THE ABOVE NAMED PERSON OF THIS ARRIVAL
AT #
Room #:
NUMBER OF PAGES:
4
(Including Cover Page)
REMARKS/COMMENTS
Mike, this Draft looks good. Please, however,
add 15 days for ad hoc consulting if possible as
indicated and increase travel. Also note minor
editorial changes -
SG11
Finalize and we will move ahead-
Thanks
.
SG11
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SG11
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