CIA-RDP96-00789R003600330001-6

Approved For Release 2004/08/25 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003600330001-6
SECRET
DT-S-1014 -SL
DIA
DEFENSE
INTELLIGENCE
AGENCY
SUMMARY REPORT (U)
PROJECT 91002
14 January 1991
NOFORN
SECRET
LINDIS
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CIA-RBP96-00789R003600330001-6
PROJECT 91002
REPRODUCTION REQUIRES APPROVAL OF
ORGINATOR OR HIGHER DOD AUTHORITY.
FURTHER DISEMINATION ONLY AS DIRECTED
BY DT OR HIGHER DOD AUTHORITY.
14 JANUARY 1991
***. pt
CLASSIFIED BY:
DIA/DT
DECLASSIFY BY:
OADR
NOT RELEASABLE TO FOREIGN NATIONAL!
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PROJECT 91002
14 JAN 91
SUMMARY
1.
(S/NF/LIMDIS)
TASK:
Describe key events/incidents
significant to the
Iraqi situation for the near term period
(7-31 Jan 91).
2.
(U) PRIOR REPORTING:
This is a general follow-up to
tasking for project 90104 report on 30 Oct 1990 and on 6 Nov
1990.
Project 91002 was initiated on 7 Jan 1991.
3.
(U)
RESPONSES:
a.
(U)
SOURCE 025:
(1)
(U)
DATE OF INFORMATION: 7 Jan 91
(2)
(S/NF /LIMDIS) DATA SUMMARY:
(a)
Peace Talks:
Peace talks will fail and will resume in
the Middle East in the March time frame.
(b)
War situation:
- War will break out in February and last
2-3 months:
o
US casualties will occur (700-2000),
mostly in Kuwait.
o
Hussein will eventually withdraw from
Kuwait.
o
War will be fast and furious.
- By April, Iraq will have a new leader.
- Some US troops will be in Kuwait through
August.
b.
(U)
SOURCE 049:
(1)
(U)
DATE OF INFORMATION:
12-13 January 1991.
(2)
(S/NF /LIMDIS)
DATA SUMMARY:
(a)
War situation:
-
War outbreak is imminent.
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-
Great indecision or bewilderment mood
exists (on both sides)
(b)
Hussein:
-
There seems to be an older relative of
Hussein who may (or should) emerge that is in
a position to influence and possibly negate
Hussein's stance.
-
This person (possibly) an uncle) was very
adept at maneuvering members of Hussein's
family, and had great influence on Hussein
when he was a teenager.
c.
(U)
SOURCE 079:
(1)
(U)
DATE OF INFORMATION:
14 January 1991.
(2)
(S/NF/LIMDIS)
DATA SUMMARY:
(a)
War Situation:
-
President Bush will announce evening of 14
January 1991 that there will not be a war
with Iraq.
- Hussein agreed to some type of
negotiation.
-
Iraqi troops will remain in Kuwait for the
near future, but they will eventually be
removed within the next 2-3 months.
-
Some small skirmishes (on water) may occur
in southern areas.
-
Situation will remain tense.
-
Yemen will be a source of trouble for the
US
(b)
Terrorist Attacks:
- None are perceived (in the US) in the near
future.
4.
(S/NB/LIMDIS)
COMMENTS:
a.
Of above, source 079 is most experienced.
b.
This project will be kept current with frequent updates.
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