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Anomalous Mental Phenomena:
Selected Papers
Compiled By:
The Cognitive Sciences Laboratory
24 June 1991
SAIC.
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I INTRODUCTION
In this volume, we present a selected set of papers on, and/or in support of, anomalous mental phenom-
ena. No section could possibly be complete; however, we have chosen papers that are representative of
their particular sections. The sections, which are separated by blue sheets, are as follows:
Section
Number of Papers
I
Introduction
II
Meta-analyses of Anomalous Mental Phenomena
8
III Main-stream Publications
7
IV Anomalous-mental-phenomena Journal Publications
6
V Magnetoencephalography
3
VI Physics
6
..
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II META-ANALYSES OF ANOMALOUS MENTAL
PHENOMENA
As in all behavioral sciences, replication of experiments in anomalous mental phenomena (AMP) is
critical before any putative effects can be verified as part of nature. Because of the complex nature of
most behavioral experiments, drawing conclusions from a body of similar experiments has been prob-
lematical. Meta-analysis, however, is a relatively new statistical approach that has been specifically de-
signed to address the particular difficulties inherent in the behavioral sciences.
The papers in this section have been selected because they represent all such analyses of a substantial
portion of the published AMP literature to date. Through replication and meta-analysis, the general
scientific community will have tools with which to judge the claims of the AMP literature.
The number that appears in the upper right-hand corner of the first page for each publication is keyed
to the following descriptions:
1. Utts, J., "Successful Replication Versus Statistical Significance," Journal of Parapsychology, Vol.
52, pp. 305-320, (December, 1988). By defining, in statistical terms, the meaning of replication
for few-o effects, Utts, a Professor of Statistics from the University of California at Davis, sets the
statistical basis for meta-analysis.
2. Honorton, C., "Error Some Place!" Joumal of Communication, pp. 103-116, (Winter, 1975). This
paper predates the development of formal meta-analysis, but Honorton provides a critical review
of all the ESP card-guessing experiments from 1934 to 1939. The paper includes a description of
the claims and counter-claims surrounding the controversy of the day.
3. Honorton, C. and Ferrari, D. C., "Future telling:' A meta-Analysis of Forced-Choise Precognition
Experiments, 1935-1987," Journal of Parapsychology, Vol. 53, pp. 282-308, (December, 1989).
Using the full complement of meta-analytical tools, Honorton provides a critical review of all the
ESP experiments during which the target material (i.e., usually ESP cards) is generated after the
guess has been recorded.
4. Honorton, C., Berger, R. E., Varvoglis, M. P., Quant, M., Derr, P., Schechter, E., I., and Ferrari, D.
C., "Psi Communication in the Ganzfeld," Journal of Parapsychology, Vol. 54, pp. 99-137, (June,
1990). This paper provides a meta-analysis of Ganzfeld experiments (i.e., a form of anomalous
cognition). The database is comprised of 11 series for a total of 355 individual trials.
5. Radin, D. I. and Nelson, R. D., "Evidence for Consciousness-Related Anomalies in Random
Physical Systems," Foundations of Physics, Vol. 19, No. 12, pp. 1499-1514, (December, 1989).
Radin and Nelson analyze over 800 experiments that claim evidence for mental human-machine
interactions (i.e., anomalous perturbation). After a careful analysis, which includes accounting
for experiment flaws, they conclude that there is substantial statistical evidence to support the
claim.
6. Honorton, C., Ferrari, D. C., and Bem, D. J., "Extraversion and ESP Performance: Meta-Analysis
and a New Confirmation," Proceedings of the Parapsychological Association 33rd Annual
Convention, Chevy Chase, MD, (August, 1990). In an important link to traditional psychological
experimentation, this paper provides a meta-analysis for the correlation of ESP performance and
a traditional personality variable, extraversion.
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7. Rosenthal, R., "Meta-Analytic Procedures and the Nature of Replication: The Ganzfeld Debate,"
Journal of Parapsychology, Vol. 50, pp. 319-336, (December, 1986), Rosenthal, a professor of
psychology at Harvard University, is one of the early developers of the meta-analysis techniques.
In this paper, he comments about the Ganzfeld controversy.
8. Utts, J., "Replication and Meta-Analysis in Parapsychology," Accepted for publication in
Statistical Sciences. In this paper, Utts, provides an independent and objective overview of the
AMP meta-analyses that follow.
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Journal of Parapsychology, Vol. 52, December 1988
SUCCESSFUL REPLICATION VERSUS
STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE
BY JESSICA UTTS
ABSTRACT: The aim of this paper is to show that successful replication in para-
psychology should not be equated with the achievement of statistical significance, ;.
whether at the .05 or at any other level. The p value from a hypothesis test is
closely related to the size of the sample used for the test; so a definition of suc-
cessful replication based on a specific p value favors studies done with large sam-
ples. Many "nonsignificant" studies may simply be ones for which the sample size
was not large enough to detect the small magnitude effect that was operating. Con-
versely, "significant" studies may result from a small but conceptually insignificant
bias, magnified by a very large sample.
The paper traces the history of the definition of statistical significance in para-
psychology and then outlines the problems with using hypothesis-testing results to
define successful replications, especially when applied in a cookbook fashion. Fi-
nally, suggestions are given for alternative approaches to looking at experimental
data. These include calculating statistical power before doing an experiment, using
estimation Instead of, or In conjunction with, hypothesis testing, and implementing
some of the ideas from Bayesian statistics.
Replication is a major issue in parapsychology. Arguments about
whether a given research paradigm has been successful tend to fo-
cus on what the replication rate has been. For example, the recent
review of parapsychology by the National Research Council includes
statements such as " ... of these 188 [RNG] experiments with some
claim to scientific status, 58 reported statistically significant results
(compared with the 9 or 10 experiments that would be expected by
chance)" (Druckman & Swets, 1988, p. 185). In each section, the
report critically evaluates "significant" experiments and ignores
"nonsignificant" experiments. The extent to which nonsignificant
experiments are ignored is exemplified by the following oversight,
in which the total number of studies is equated with the number of
"successful" studies: "Of the thirteen scientifically reported experi-
ments [of remote viewing], nine are classified as successful in their
outcomes by Hansen et al. ... As it turns out, all but one of the nine
scientifically reported studies of remote viewing suffer from the flaw
of sensory cueing" (p. 183, emphasis added). Apparently the au-
thors decided that the four experiments that did not attain a p value
of .05 or less did not even warrant acknowledgment.
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The practice of defining a successful replication as an experi-
ment that attains a p value of .05 or less is common in parapsychol-
ogy, psychology, and some other disciplines that use statistics. How-
ever, like many other conventions in science, it is based on a series
of historical events rather than on rational thought. In this paper, I
will trace some of the history leading to this definition of a "suc-
cessful" experiment, outline some problems with this approach, and
suggest some methods that parapsychologists should consider in ad-
dition to the usual hypothesis-testing regimen. Rao (1984) and Hon-
orton (1984) have discussed similar problems and solutions in the
context of psi experiments.
HISTORY
It has not always been the case among parapsychologists that an
experiment was deemed successful if it reached a significance level
of p = . 05. In 1917, John Edgar Coover, who was the Thomas Wel-
ton Stanford Psychical Research Fellow at Stanford University from
1912 to 1937, published a book with the results from several exper-
iments he had conducted up to that time (Coover, 1917/1975). Al-
though hypothesis testing as we know it today had not yet been for-
malized, he essentially conducted tests on many facets of this data
and found no evidence for psi that was convincing to him. His con-
clusions regarding these results are typified by an example he gave
in which the hit rate for 518 trials was 30.1%, when 25% was ex-
pected by chance (exact p value = . 00476):
We get 0.9938 [p-value = 1 - 0.9938 = 0.0062] for the probability that
chance deviations will not exceed this limit [of 30.1 percent] .... Since
this value, then, lies within the field of chance deviation, although the
probability of its occurrence by chance is fairly low, it cannot be ac-
cepted as a decisive indication of some cause beyond chance which op-
erated in favor of success in guessing. (p. 82)
He then revealed what level of evidence would convince him that
nonchance factors were operating: " ... if we meet the requirement
of a degree of accuracy usual in scientific work by making P =
0.9999779, when absolute certainty is P = 1, then [there is] satisfac-
tory evidence for some cause in addition to chance" (p. 83). In other
words, he was defining significance with a p value of 2.21 x 10-5.
Coover was not alone in requiring that results conform to arbi-
trarily stringent significance levels. In 1940, when Rhine et al. pub-
Replication vs. Significance
307
lished Extra-Sensory Perception After Sixty Years, they included the fol-
lowing definitions in the glossary:
p-value = probability of success in each trial
SIGNIFICANCE: When the probability that chance factors alone pro
duced a given deviation is sufficiently small to provide relative certainty
that chance is not a reasonable expectation, the deviation is significantly
above or below the chance level. Among ESP results, this is arbitrarily
taken to mean a deviation in the expected direction such that the critical
ratio is 2.5 times the standard deviation (or four times the probable er-
ror) or greater. (p. 423-424)
Thus, significance was defined by z ≥ 2.5, or p ≤.0062.
Seventeen years later, in their book Parapsychology: Frontier Scin
ence of the Mind, Rhine and Pratt (1957) suggested that .01 was they
appropriate threshold:
In order for such judgments to have the necessary objectivity, a criterion
of significance is established by practice and general agreement among ..
the research workers in a particular field .... Most workers in parapsy -.
chology accept a probability of .01 as the criterion of significance. (p.
186)
Finally, the Journal of Parapsychology has included a definition ofg
significance in its glossary for many years, but the appropriate po
value has fluctuated back and forth between .01 and .02, finally set-
tling at .02 in 1968. The following are excerpts from those glossar-
ies:
December 1949: "A numerical result is significant when it equals
or surpasses some criterion of degree of chance improbabil-
ity. Common criteria are: a probability value of .01 or less."
March 1950 to June 1957: "The criterion commonly used in this
Journal is a probability value of .02 or less."
September 1957: "The criterion commonly used in this Journal
is P = . 01."
December 1957 to December 1967: "The criterion commonly
used in parapsychology today is a probability value of .01 or
less."
March 1968 to December 1986: "The criterion commonly used
in parapsychology today is a probability value of .02 (odds of
50 to 1 against chance) or less .... Odds of 20 to 1 (probability
of .05) are regarded as strongly suggestive."
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March 1987: The term significance no longer appears in the glos-
sary.
By the mid-1980's, despite the value of .02 given in the Journal
of Parapsychology, significance seemed to have been determined to
correspond to a p value of .05. For example, in their bibliography
of remote-viewing research, Hansen, Schlitz, and Tart (1984) claim:
"We have found that more than half (fifteen out of twenty-eight) of
the published formal experiments have been successful, where only
one in twenty would be expected by chance." As mentioned in my ;
introduction, .05 was the value used by the National Research Coun-
cil in their recent evaluation of parapsychology. Both Hyman (1985)
and Honorton (1985) used .05 as the criterion for a successful ganz-
feld study. In discussing the Schmidt REG experiments, Palmer
(1985) implicitly used .05 as the cut-off for significance by observ-
ing: "Based on Z-tests ... 25 of the 33 (76%) were significant at the
.05 level, two-tailed. In two of the seven non-significant studies .... "
(p. 102).
This definition of significance is obviously not unique to para-
psychology. A popular introductory textbook in psychology states
that:
Psychologists used a statistical inference procedure that gives them an
estimate of the probability that an observed difference could have oc-
curred by chance. This computation is based on the size of the differ-
ence and the spread of the scores. By common agreement, they accept
a difference as "real" when the probability that it might be due to
chance is less than 5 in 100 (indicated by the notation p < . 05). A sig-
nificant difference is one that meets this criterion .... With a statistically
significant difference, a researcher can draw a conclusion about the be-
havior that was under investigation. (Zimbardo, 1988, p. 54)
Given the weight that has been attached to .05 as the criterion
for significance, one would think that it resulted from careful con-
sideration of the issue by statisticians and psychologists. Unfortu-
nately, such is not the case. Its roots apparently lie in the following
passage published in 1926 by one of the founders of modern statis-
tics, Sir Ronald A. Fisher:
It is convenient to draw the line at about the level at which we can say:
"Either there is something in the treatment, or a coincidence has oc-
curred such as does not occur more than once in twenty trials." ... If
one in twenty does not seem high enough odds, we may, if we prefer
it, draw the line at one in fifty (the 2 per cent point), or one in a
hundred (the 1 per cent point). Personally, the writer prefers to set a
909
Replication us. Significance
low standard of significance at the 5 per cent point, and ignore entirely
all results which fail to reach that level. A scientific fact should be re-
garded as experimentally established only if a properly designed exper-
iment rarely fails to give this level of significance. (Fisher, 1926, p. 504;
also quoted in Savage, 1976, p. 471)
:
Thus began the belief that an experiment is successful only if the
null hypothesis can be rejected using a = 0.05. As an immediate
consequence of this belief, Fisher and his followers created tables of
F statistics that included values only for tail areas of .05 and .01.
Since researchers did not have access to computer algorithms to de-
termine intermediate p values, success came to be measured in terms
of these two values alone.
PROBLEMS WITH HYPOTHESIS TESTING
Misconceptions about p Values
Most modern research reports include p values instead of simply
discussing whether an experimental result is significant at a pre-
specified level. Although this is somewhat better than the old
method of "one star or two" (corresponding to a significant result
at .05 or .01, respectively), it is still a misleading way to examine
experimental results.
The problem is that many researchers interpret p values as being
related to the probability that the null hypothesis is true. Even some so-
phisticated researchers tend to think that an extremely small p value
must correspond to a very large effect in the population and that a
large p value (say > .10) means that there is no effect. In other
words, the size of the p value is incorrectly interpreted as the size of the
effect. It should be interpreted as the probability of observing results
as extreme or more so than those observed, if there is no effect.
To see how arbitrary it is to base a decision about the truth or
falsity of a statement on a p value, consider a binomial study based
on a sample of size n which results in z = 0.30, p value = . 38, one-
tailed. One would probably abandon the hypothesis under study
and decide not to pursue the given line of research. Now suppose
that the study had been run with a sample of size 100n instead and
resulted in the exact same proportion of hits. Then we would find
z = 3.00, + value = . 0013. These results would be regarded as
highly significant!
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As another example, consider a chi square test for randomness
based on a sequence of n numbers, each of which can take the val-
ues 1, 2, ... 10. Suppose that the test results in a chi-square value of
11.0, df = 9, p value = 0.28. Now suppose the sequence was three
times as long but the proportions of each digit remained the same.
Then each term in the numerator of the chi-square statistic would
be multiplied by 32, whereas each term in the denominator would
only be multiplied by 3. The degrees of freedom would not change,
but the new result would be x2 = 33.0, df = 9, p value = . 00013.
In the first case, the conclusion would be that the sequence was suf-
ficiently random, yet a sequence three times as long with the same
pattern would be seen to deviate considerably from randomness!
This problem was recognized more than 50 years ago by Berk-
son (1938):
We may assume that it is practically certain that any series of real ob-
servations does not actually follow a normal curve with absolute exactitude
in all respects, and no matter how small the discrepancy between the
normal curve and the true curve of observations, the chi-square P will
be small if the sample has a sufficiently large number of observations in
it.
If this be so, then we have something here that is apt to trouble the
conscience of a reflective statistician using the chi-square test. For I sup-
pose .it would be agreed by statisticians that a large sample is always
better than a small sample. If, then, we know in advance the P that will
result from an application of a chi-square test to a large sample, there
would seem to be no use in doing it on a smaller one, but since the
result of the former test is known, it is no test at all. (pp. 526-527,
emphasis in original)
Replication
Very often researchers simply do not understand the connection
between the p value and the size of the sample. For example, Ro-
senthal and Gaito (1963) asked nine faculty members and ten grad-
uate students in a university psychology department to rate their
degree of belief or confidence in results of hypothetical studies with
various p values and with sample sizes of 10 and 100. Given the
same p value, one should have more confidence in a study with a
smaller sample because it would take a larger underlying effect to
obtain the small p value for a small sample. Unfortunately,
Replication vs. Significance
311
respondents demonstrated that they were far more likely to believe
results based on the large sample when the p values were the same.
(For a discussion of this example and some other problems with hy-
pothesis testing in psychology, see Bakan, 1967.)
One consequence of this misunderstanding is that researchers
misinterpret what constitutes a "successful replication" of an exper-
iment. Tversky and Kahneman (1982) asked 84 members of the
American Psychological Association or the Mathematical Psychology
Group the following question:
Suppose you have run an experiment on 20 subjects, and have obtained
a significant result which confirms your theory (z = 2.23, p < . 05, two-
tailed). You now have cause to run an additional group of 10 subjects.
What do you think the probability is that the results will be significant,
by a one-tailed test, separately for this group? (p. 23)
The median answer given was .85. Only 9 of the 84 respondents
gave an answer between .40 and .60. Assuming that the value ob-
tained in the first test was close to the true population value, the
probability of achieving a p value ≤ .05 on the second test is actually
only about .47. This is because the sample size in the second study
is so small. The effect would have to be quite large in order to be
detected with such a small sample.
In the same survey, Tversky and Kahneman also asked:
An investigator has reported a result that you consider implausible. He
ran 15 subjects, and reported. a significant value, t = 2.46. Another in-
vestigator has attempted to duplicate his procedure, and he obtained a
nonsignificant value of t with the same number of subjects. The direc-
tion was the same in both sets of data. You are reviewing the literature.
What is the highest value of t in the second set of data that you would
describe as a failure to replicate? (p. 28)
The majority of respondents considered t = 1.70 as a failure to
replicate. But if the results from both studies are combined, then
(assuming equal variances) the result is t = 2.94, df = 29, p value
= . 003. The paradox is that the new study decreases faith in the orig-
final result if viewed separately but increases it when combined with
the original data!
This misunderstanding about replication is quite prevalent in the
psi literature, as demonstrated by the emphasis on successful repli-
, cation, where success is defined in terms of a specific.p value, re-
: gardless of sample size. As an example of how unnecessarily dis-
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1986) that if the true hit rate in a binomial study (such as a ganzfeld
experiment) is actually 33%, and 25% is expected by chance, then a
study based on a sample of size 26 should be expected to be "suc-
cessful" (p ≤ .05) only about one fifth of the time. Even a study
based on a sample of size 100 should be "successful" only about half
of the time. It is no wonder that there are so many "unsuccessful"
attempts at replication in psi.
As another example of the paradoxical nature of this definition
of replication, consider the "unsuccessful" direct-hit ganzfeld studies
covered by the meta-analyses of Hyman (1985) and Honorton
(1985). Using those studies with p(hit) = . 25, there were 13 out of
24 that were nonsignificant, a = 0.05, one-tailed. (See Honorton, p.
84, Table Al.) But when these 13."failures" are combined, the re-
sult is 106 hits out of 367 trials, z = 1.66, p = . 0485!
Problems with Point Null Hypotheses
A point null hypothesis is one that specifies a particular value
("point") as the one being tested. Most hypothesis testing is done
with point null hypotheses. The problem with this approach is that
any given hypothesis is bound to be false, even if just by a minuscule
amount. For example, in a coin-tossing experiment, the null hy-
pothesis is that the coin is fair, that is to say, H .: P = . 5000000.
This is never precisely true in nature. All coins and coin-tossers in-
troduce a slight bias into the experiment. This slight bias can pro-
duce a very small p value if the sample size is large enough. If, for
example, the true probability of heads is .5001, and the observed
proportion of heads falls right at this value, then the null hypothesis
will be rejected at .05 if the sample size is at least 6.7 x 107. As long
as there is any bias at all, the p value can be made arbitrarily small
by taking a large enough sample.
In practice, this problem was rarely serious before it became pos-
sible to collect large amounts of data rapidly using computers. Stat-
isticians have often used ESP as an example of one of the few cases
where it really is possible to specify an exact value for the null hy-
pothesis. But even this view is changing, as shown by this comment
from a recent issue of a popular statistics journal:
It is rare, and perhaps impossible, to have a null hypothesis that can be.
exactly modeled as 0 = 0 .. One might feel that hypotheses such as
H .: A subject has no ESP, or
H .: Talking to plants has no effect on their growth,
are representable as exact (and believable) point nulls, but, even here,
.
Replication vs. Significance
313
minor biases in the experiments will usually prevent exact representa-
tions as points. (Berger & Delampady, 1987, p. 320)
In summary, hypothesis testing as it is currently formulated
tends to be a misleading approach to examining data. Small samples
tend to lead to "nonsignificant" studies, whereas large samples can
lead to extremely small p values, even if the null hypothesis is onlyg
slightly wrong. Many researchers do not understand the meaning ofa
a p value and do not understand how closely replication issues are
tied to sample size. Arguments about replication should not be
based on p values alone.
SOLUTIONS
Power Calculations
If a hypothesis test is to be done at all, a researcher should at
least determine in advance whether it is likely to be successful. The
statistical power of a test is the probability that the null hypothesis
will be rejected. It obviously depends on what the true underlying:
state of nature is. Because this information cannot be known (or
there would be no point in doing the experiment), it is a good idea
to look at power for a variety of possibilities before conducting the
experiment. The results will tell you whether you are likely to bey
able to reject the null hypothesis, using the sample size you have?
planned, for specific values of the magnitude of the effect.
Statistical power is a function of the sample size; the true under-co
lying magnitude of the effect, the level of significance for which the
experiment would be considered a success, and the method of
analysis used. It does not depend on the data.
As an example, suppose you are planning to conduct a test of
the hypothesis H .: P = . 25 using a series of 10 independent trials
Power calculations would proceed as follows:
1. Find the cutoff point for the number of hits that would lead
to rejection of H .. In this case, the p value for 5 hits is .08, and for
6 hits it is .02, so 6 hits would probably be required to reject the
null hypothesis.
2. Power for a specific alternative is the probability that the null
hypothesis would be rejected if that alternative value is true. In this
case, power = P(6 or more hits). This can be computed directly,
using the binomial formula, for any specified hit rate. Here are
some examples:
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Hit rate
Power = P(6 or more hits)
0.30
.047
0.33
.073
0.40
.166
0.50
.377
Notice that even if the true hit rate is 50% instead of the chance level
of 25%, the chances of a "successful" replication are poor, that is, only
37.7%. In most psi applications, 30% or 33% is probably a more re-
alistic approximation to the true hit rate, so there would be a very
small chance of having this experiment succeed with only 10 trials.
As a second example, suppose you are planning to run the same
experiment with 100 trials and are planning to use the normal ap-
proximation instead of an exact test. Further, suppose you will re-
ject the null hypothesis if z > 1.645, where z is the usual critical
ratio, corrected for continuity: z = (number of hits - 0.5 -
25) / V(100 x .25 x .75) = . 23(number of hits - 25.5).
Using
simple algebra, note that z ≥ 1.645 when the number of hits ≥
32.65. Thus, the null hypothesis will be rejected if there are 33 or
more hits, so power = P(33 or more hits). Computing this for the
same hypothetical hit rates as in the previous example gives:
Hit rate
Power = P(33 or more hits)
0.30
.289
0.33
.538
0.40
.939
0.50
.9998
Now there is a more reasonable chance for a successful study, al-
though it is still only 29% even if the true hit rate is 30%.
For studies in which the null hypothesis does not involve a single
value, it can be more difficult to compute power because it is not so
easy to specify a reasonable alternative. In these cases, it is still pos-
sible to look at the p value that can be expected if psychic function-
ing were to occur at specified levels for the sample size planned. For
example, McClenon and Hyman (1987) conducted a remote-viewing
study with eight trials, one for each of eight subjects, and used the
preferential-ranking method of Solfvin, Kelly, and Burdick (1978)
on the subject rankings. Each subject was asked to rank-order eight
315
" choices of potential targets as compared to the response he or she
had produced. By chance, the average rank should be 4.5. If
psychic functioning had reduced the average rank to 4.0, the p
value would have been .298, not significant. Even if the average
rank had been reduced to 3.5, the study would still not have been
significant, p value = . 126. The average rank would have to be 3.0
before this study would achieve a significant result. A parapsychol-
ogist experienced in remote viewing should be able to determine in
advance whether such a study would be likely to be successful with
such a small sample.
The lesson here is that a "nonsignificant" study may be nothing
more than a study with low power. Before investing time and
money in a new study, it should be determined whether it is likely
to succeed if psychic functioning is operating at a given level.
Estimation.
An approach that avoids many of the problems with hypothesis
testing is to construct a "confidence interval" or an "interval esti-
mate" for the magnitude of an effect. This is done by computing an
interval of values that almost certainly covers the true population
value. The degree of certainty is called the confidence coefficient and
is specified by the researcher. Common values are 95% and 99%.
As. an example, consider a binomial study with 100 trials that
results in 35 hits. Using the normal approximation, one would ex-
pect the proportion of hits in the sample to be within 1.96 standard
deviations of the true hit rate 95% of the time. The appropriate
standard deviation for the proportion P of hits is VP(1 - P)In.
Thus, a 95% confidence interval for the true hit rate is found by
adding and subtracting 1.96 of these standard deviations to the pro-
portion of hits observed in the sample. The resulting interval in this
case is 0.35 - 0.09 to 0.35 + 0.09, or 0.26 to 0.44. This tells us that
with a fair amount of certainty (95%), the true hit rate is covered
by the interval from 0.26 to 0.44: For the same proportion of hits
in a study with 1,000 trials, the interval would be from 0.32 to 0.38.
The larger the sample size, the shorter the width of the interval.
Consider two studies designed to test H .: P = . 5:
Study 1
Z
3.60
p value
.0004
Study 2
2.40
.0164
n
1,000
100
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Replication vs. Significance

316 .
The Journal of Parapsychology
Which study provides more convincing evidence that there is a
strong effect? In keeping with the results of Rosenthal and Gaito
(1963) discussed earlier, most people would say that the first study
shows a stronger effect, both because the p value is smaller and be-
cause it is based on a larger sample. In fact, the opposite is true.
The number of hits for the two studies are 557 (55.7%) and 62
62%), respectively; the smaller study had a higher hit rate. The
95% confidence intervals for the hit rates in the two studies are
(0.53 to 0.59) and (0.53 to 0.72), respectively, so in both studies we
are relatively sure that the hit rate is at least 53%, but in the second
Study it could be as high as 72% whereas in the first it is probably
Bo higher than 59%.
In studies with huge sample sizes, confidence intervals make it
evident that an infinitesimal p value does not correspond to an ef-
Tect of large magnitude. For example, consider a study based on
300,000 trials and designed to test H .: P = . 50. Suppose there were
40,500 hits. Then z = 3.16, and the p value is 7.9 x 10-4. But what
does this mean in practical terms? A 95% confidence interval for the
true hit rate is from 0.5019 to 0.5081. Thus, it appears that the true
Bit rate is indeed different from 0.50, but reporting the results in
this way makes it clear that the magnitude of the difference is very
Small. The reader can decide whether an effect of this size has any
meaning in the context of the experiment.
In summary, confidence intervals are preferable to hypothesis
Tests for the following reasons:
1. They show the magnitude of the effect.
2. They show that the accuracy of the conclusion is highly de-
pendent on the sample size.
3. They remove the focus from decision making, which is arbi-
Brary at best because of sample size problems.
4. They highlight the distinction between statistical significance
and practical significance.
5. They allow the reader of a research report to come to his or
her own conclusion.
Meta-Analyses
Meta-analytic techniques may be viewed by some parapsycholo-
gists as the solution to studying the issue of replication. Even though
these techniques can address the replication issue in useful ways,
Replication vs. Significance
317
they also contain some dangerous pitfalls. For example, both Hy-
man (1985) and Honorton (1985) used "vote-counting" in their
meta-analyses of the ganzfeld data base. In other words, they tallied
the number of significant studies in the data base. This procedure
inherits all of the problems associated with the original determina-
tion of whether a study was "significant" in the first place. A series
of studies, each with low power, may all be determined to be non-
significant, when the combined data may lead to an extremely sig-
nificant result. Conversely, a series of studies based on large samples
may all be significant, but the magnitude of the effect may be very
small. A vote-count showing that most studies are significant could
mislead researchers into believing that there was a large effect.
The concept of effect size was introduced to account for the fact
that individual study results are highly dependent on sample size.
Estimating the effect sizes for a series of studies and seeing whether
they are similar is a useful way of studying replication. However,
examining only the effect size for an individual study does not give
any indication of the accuracy of the result. This should be done in
conjunction with some estimate of the accuracy of the result, such
as a confidence interval.
Bayesian Methods
Many statisticians believe that the conceptual framework of hy-
pothesis testing and interval estimation is philosophically incorrect.
Rather, they start by assigning prior probabilities, based on subjec-
tive belief, to various hypotheses, and then combine these "priors"
with the data to compute final or "posterior" probabilities for the
hypotheses. This is called the Bayesian approach to statistics. An in-
troduction to the ideas of Bayesian analysis can be found in Berger
and Berry (1988) or Edwards, Lindman, and Savage (1963). A more
technical reference is Berger (1985).
Berger and Berry (1988), in a recent article in American Scientist,
discussed the use of Bayesian methods instead of classical methods:
The first step of this demonstration is to calculate the actual probability
that the hypothesis is true in light of the data. This is the domain of
Bayesian statistics, which processes data to produce "final probabilities"
... for hypotheses. Thus, the conclusion of a Bayesian analysis might be
that the final probability of H is 0.30.
The direct simplicity of such a statement compared with the convo-
luted reasoning necessary to interpret a P-value is in itself a potent ar-
in
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318
The Journal of Parapsychology
gument for Bayesian methods. Nothing is free, however, and the ele-
gantly simple Bayesian conclusion requires additional input. To obtain
the final probability of a hypothesis in light of the experimental data, it
is necessary.to specify the probability of the hypothesis before or apart
from the experimental data.
Where does this initial probability come from? The answer is simple.
It must be subjectively chosen by the person interpreting the data. A
person who doubts the hypothesis initially might choose a probability of
0.1; by contrast, someone who believes in it might choose 0.9. (p. 162)
They then provide an example of testing the hypothesis H: P = . 5,
where P is the proportion of hits expected in a binomial experi-
ment. Suppose that in 17 trials there are 13 successes (76.5%). Then
the p value is .049, two-tailed. Unless, of course, the experiment was
designed to stop at the fourth failure instead of at the 17th trial.
Then the p value, with the identical data, would only be .021. Such
problems arise with classical methods, but not with Bayesian meth-
ods.
Using the Bayesian approach, suppose that one's prior belief
that H is true is 50%. If H isn't true, the prior belief is that the true
value of P is equally likely to be anywhere between 0.5 - c and 0.5
+ c (where c is some constant), but could not possibly be farther
than that from 0.5. The choice of c represents prior opinion about
the strength of the effect, if there is one. Choosing c = 0.1 (the
effect isn't likely to be very strong even if it exists) results in a final
probability of 0.41 for H (given that there were 13 successes in 17
trials), whereas choosing c = 0.4 results in a probability of 0.21 for
H. In other words, the final degree of belief in H is dependent on
one's prior belief about the strength of the effect. It also depends
on prior opinion about the veracity of H, and on the observed data.
One reason that Bayesian methods are not more widely used is
that they are often difficult to apply. Another reason is that re-
searchers are uncomfortable with having to specify subjective de-
grees of belief in their hypotheses. This approach makes particular
sense for parapsychology, however, because most researchers have
strong opinions about the probability that psi is real, and these opin-
ions play a central role in how psi researchers and critics evaluate
the evidence. Posterior probabilities in Bayesian analyses are a func-
tion of both the prior probabilities and the strength of the evidence;
it may be informative to formalize these opinions and to see how
much evidence would be needed to increase the posterior probabil-
ity of a psi hypothesis to a non-negligible level when the prior prob-
ability was close to zero.
Replication vs. Significance
319
REFERENCES
BAKAN, D. (1967). On method: Toward a reconstruction of psychological investi-
gation. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, Inc.
BERGER, J. O. (1985). Statistical decision theory and Bayesian analysis. Noa
York: Springer-Verlag.
BERCER, J. O., & BERRY, D. A. (1988, March-April). Statistical analysis ang
the illusion of objectivity. American Scientist, pp. 159-165.
BERGER, J. O., & DELAMPADY, M. (1987). Testing precise hypotheses. Station
tical Science, 2(3), 317-334.
BERKSON, J. (1938). Some difficulties of interpretation encountered in the
application of the chi-square test. Journal of the American Statistical Asse
ciation, 33, 526-542.
COOVER, J. E. (1975). Experiments in psychicial research. New York: Arno
Press. (Originally published 1917)
DRUCKMAN, D., & SWETS, J. A. (1988). Enhancing human performance. Wash
ington, D. C .: National Academy Press.
EDWARDS, W., LINDMAN, H., & SAVAGE, L. J. (1963). Bayesian statistical in
ference for psychological research. Psychological Review, 70, 193-242. 00
FISHER, R. A. (1926). The arrangement of field experiments. Journal of the
Ministry of Agriculture of Great Britain, 33, 503-513.
HANSEN, G. P., SCHLITZ, M. J., & TART. C. T. (1984). Bibliography, remote
viewing research, 1973-1981. In R. Targ & K. Harary, The mind roce
(pp. 265-269). New York: Villard Books.
HONORTON, C. (1984). How to evaluate and improve the replicability o
parapsychological effects. In B. Shapin & L. Coly (Eds.), The repeatability
problem in parapsychology (pp. 238-255). New York: Parapsychology
Foundation, Inc.
HONORTON, C. (1985). Meta-analysis of psi ganzfeld research: A response
to Hyman. Journal of Parapsychology, 49, 51-91.
HYMAN, R (1985). The ganzfeld psi experiment: A critical appraisal. Jour
nal of Parapsychology, 49, 3-49.
MCCLENON, J., & HYMAN R. (1987). A remote viewing experiment cone
ducted by a skeptic and a believer. Zetetic Scholar, Nos. 12/13, 21-33.
PALMER, J. (1985). An evaluative report on the current status of parapsy:
chology. U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social
Sciences, Alexandria, VA.
RAO, K. R. (1984). Replication in conventional and controversial sciences.
In B. SHAPIN & L. COLY (Eds.), The repeatability problem in parapsychology,
(pp. 22-41). New York: Parapsychology Foundation, Inc.
RHINE, J. B., & PRATT, J. G. (1957). Parapsychology: Frontier science of the
mind. Springfield IL: Charles C. Thomas.
RHINE, J. B., PRATT, J. G., STUART, C. E., SMITH, B. M., & GREENWOOD,
J. A. (1940). Extra-sensory perception after sixty years. Boston: Bruce Hum-
phries.
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ROSENTHAL,, R., & Garro, J. (1963). The interpretation of levels of signifi-
cance by psychological researchers. Journal of Psychology, 55, 33-38.
SAVAGE, L. J. (1976). On rereading R. A. Fisher. Annals of Statistics, 4, 441-
500.
ROLFVIN, G. F., KELLY, E. F., & BURDICK, D. S. (1978). Some new methods
for preferential-ranking data. Journal of the American Society for Psychical
Research, 72, 93-110.
VERSKY, A., & KAHNEMAN, D. (1982). Belief in the law of small numbers.
In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgment under uncer-
tainty: Heuristics and biases. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
UTTS, J. M. (1986). The ganzfeld debate: A statistician's perspective. Journal
of Parapsychology, 50, 393-402.
ZIMBARDO, P. G. (1988). Psychology and life. Glenview, IL: Scott, Foresman
and Co.
Bivision of Statistics
University of California
Davis, CA 95616
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Paranormal Communication
"Error Some Place!"
by Charles Honorton
Review of the ESP controversy
traces debate from statistical
and methodological issues to
the a priori critique and the
paradigm of "normal science."
Asked his opinion of ESP. a skeptical psychologist once retorted, "Error
Some Placel" I believe he was right, but for the wrong reasons. Western
science has always been ambivalent toward the mental side of reality, and
it is perhaps not surprising that the occurrence of "psychic" phenomena is
one of the most controversial topics in the history of science.
The first serious effort toward scientific examination of psi claims was
undertaken by the Society for Psychical Research (SPR), founded in London
in 1882 for the purpose of "making an organized and systematic attempt
to investigate the large group of phenomena designated by such terms as
mesmeric, psychical, and spiritualistic." The SPR leadership included many
distinguished scholars of the period, and similar organizations quickly
spread to other countries, including the American Society for Psychical Re-
search, founded in New York in 1885 under the aegis of William James,
who himself took an active role in early investigations of mediumistic
communications.
These turn-of-the-century investigators focused much of their attention
on authenticating individual cases of spontaneous experiences suggestive
of psi communication. While a great deal of provocative material was care-
fully examined and reported (e.g., 13), the limitations inherent in the case
study approach prohibited definitive conclusions. However thoroughly au-
thenticated, spontaneous cases cannot provide adequate assessment of such
potential sources of contamination as chance coincidence, unconscious in-
ference and sensory leakage, retroactive falsification, or deliberate fraud.
Charles Honorton is director of research in the Division of Parapsychology and
Psychophysics, Department of Psychiatry, Maimonides Medical Center, Brooklyn, N.Y.
:
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·
Early experimental approaches primarily involved the "telepathic" repro-
duction of drawings at a distance (62). While often striking correspondences
were obtained, the experimental conditions did not usually provide for
random selection of target (stimulus) material, and were not always to:ally
adequate with respect to the possibility of sensory leakage, intentiona: or
otherwise.
Neither the spontaneous case studies nor the early experimental efforts
made much impact upon the scientific community, though they drew critical
comment from prominent period scientists. "Neither the testimony of all
the Fellows of the Royal Society, nor even the evidence of my own senses."
proclaimed Helmholtz, "would lead me to believe in the transmission of
thought from one person to another independently of the recognized chen-
nels of sense." Thomas Huxley declined an invitation to participate
in
some of the early SPR investigation's, saying he would sooner listen to the
idle gossip of old women.
The rudiments of an experimental methodology
for testing psi were suggested three
centuries ago by Francis Bacon.
In Sylva Sylvarum, a work published posthumously, Bacon discussed
"experiments in consort, monitory) touching transmission of spirits and
forces of imagination." He suggested that "the motions of shuffling cards,"
or casting of dice" could be used to test the "binding of thoughts.
The experiment of binding of thoughts should be diversified and tried to
the full; and you are to note whether it hit for the most part though not-
always" (2).
The application of probability theory to the assessment of deviations
from theoretically expected chance outcomes was introduced to psychical
research in 1884 by the French Nobel laureate, Charles Richet, in experi.
ments involving card-guessing. The popularity of card-guessing as an: ex-
perimental methodology was greatly influenced by the work of J. B. Rhine
and his associates at Duke University in the early 1980s. Rhine (50) devrisec
a standard set of procedures around a simplified card deck containing
randomized sequences of five geometric forms (circle, cross, wavy lines,
square, and circle. These "ESP cards" were prepared in packs of 25, and
.
STAR
1
each "run" through the pack was associated with a constant binomial p'rot
ability of 1/5, since subjects were not given trial-by-trial feedback. Provid-
ing the experimental conditions were adequate to eliminate illicit sensor
cubes, recording errors, and rational inference, statistically significant de
partures from binomial chance expectation were interpreted as indicating
extrasensory communication.
Initially, "telepathy" tests consisted of having a subject in one roor
attempt to identify the order of the cards as they were observed by an
"agent" in another room. In "clairvoyance" tests, the subject attempted to
"guess" the order of the cards directly, as they lay concealed in an opaque7
104
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Paranormal Communication / "Error Some Place!"
container or in another room, without an agent. "Precognition" tests,
introduced somewhat later (59), required the subject to make anticipatory
guesses of the card order before the pack was shuffled or otherwise random-
ized.
Rhine introduced the term "ESP" in his first major report on the Duke
University work in 1934 (50). He reported a total of 85,724 card-guessing
trials, carried out with a wide variety of subjects and under a wide range
of test conditions. The results as a whole were astronomically significant,
though informal exploratory trials were indiscriminately pooled with those
carried out under more carefully controlled conditions. The best-controlled
work during this period was the Pearce-Pratt distance series of clairvoyance
tests (58), in which the subject, Pearce, located in one building, attempted
to identify the order of the cards as they were handled, but not viewed, by
Pratt, the experimenter, located in another building. The level of accuracy
obtained in this series of 1,850 trials was associated with a probability of
10-22.
As a stimulant to experimental research, Rhine's work had unprece-
dented influence. For the first time a common methodology was adopted
and employed on a large scale by a number of independent and widely
separated investigators. For the first time, also, the scientific community
was confronted with a body of data, collected through conventional meth-
ods, which it could no longer ignore-nor too hastily accept. The wide-
scale adoption of the card-guessing methodology was accompanied by a
plethora of critical articles, challenging almost every aspect of the evalua-
tive techniques and the experimental conditions. During the period be-
tween 1984 and 1940, approximately 60 critical articles by 40 authors ap-
peared, primarily in the psychological literature. While card-guessing is
no longer the primary methodology in experimental parapsychology, the
questions which arose over its use are of equal relevance to the more
sophisticated approaches used today.
The first major issue concerned the
validity of the assumption that the
probability of success in the card-guessing
experiments was actually 1/5.
If chance expectation is other than 1/5, the significance of the observed
deviations would obviously be in doubt. This issue was quickly resolved
by mathematical proof and through empirical "cross-checks," a form of
control series in which responses (guesses) were deliberately compared with
target orders for which they were not intended (e.g., responses on run n]
matched with the target sequence for run n.). Empirical cross-checks were
reported for 24 separate experimental series involving a total of 12,228
runs (305,700 individual trials). While the actual experimental run scores
(e.g., guesses on run n, compared to targets for run n;) were highly sig-
nificant and yielded a mean scoring rate of 7.23/25, the control" cross-check
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scores were in all cases nonsignificant, with a mean scoring rate of 5.04 (43).
Several critics questioned the applicability of the binomial distribution
as a basis for assessing the statistical significance of ESP card-guessing data.
Willoughby (78) proposed the use of an empirical control series, but later
withdrew the suggestion after comparing the two methods (79). Alternative
methods of deriving the probable error and recommendations for using
the empirical standard deviation were also proposed and later withdrawn
(21, 22). Concern over this issue diminished and was generally abandoned
following the publication of a large chance control series involving half
a million trials and demonstrating close approximation to the binomial
model (12).
Another question arose about whether the binomial model provides
sufficient approximation to the normal distribution to allow use of normal
probability integral tables for determination of significance levels (17).
Stuart and Greenwood (73) showed that when the normal distribution is
used as an approximation to the binomial model, discrepancies are im-
portant only with cases of borderline significance and few trials.
The use of the binomial critical ratio (z) to evaluate the significance of
the ESP card-guessing deviations was generally approved b: professional
statisticians (6, 20). Fisher (10), however, commented that high levels of1
statistical significance should not be accepted as substitutes for independent
replication. In another vein, Huntington (20) asked, "If mathematics has
successfully disposed of the hypothesis of chance, what has psychology to
say about the hypothesis of ESP?"
The most frequently expressed methodological
concern was the possibility of some
form of "sensory leakage," giving the ESF
subject enough information about the targets
to account for significant, extrachance results
As early as 1895, two Danish psychologists, Hansen and Lehmann
(16), reported that with the aid of parabolic reflectors subjects could detec"
digits and other material silently concentrated upon by an agent. In thes
experiments, the subject and agent sat with their heads close to the foci
of two concave mirrors. While the agent concentrated on the number, h
made a special effort to keep his lips closed. Under these conditions, th
subjects were frequently successful in identifying the number. These results
were interpreted by Hansen and Lehmann as supporting the hypothesis
of "involuntary whispering." The utilization of subtle sensory cues wa
demonstrated in a careful investigation by S. G. Soal of a stage "telepathist"
(66). There were also reports, such as the case of "Ilga K.," a mentally
retarded Latvian child who could read any text, even in a foreign language
when someone stood behind her, reading "silently." Experiments wit ..
dictaphone recordings revealed that "Ilga" was responding to very slight
auditory cues (3).
·
·
106 .
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able to the ESP hypothesis made 71.5 percent more errors of commission
(increasing ESP scores), while those who were unfavorable to the ESP
hypothesis made 100 percent more errors of omission (decreasing ESP
scores). Murphy (37) reported an analysis of 175,000 trials from experiments
reporting positive evidence for ESP and found only 175 errors (0.10 per-
cent). Greenwood (12) reported only 90 recording errors in rechecking his
500,000-trial control study, of which 76 were errors of omission.
Some critics also alleged that improper selection of data could account
for experimental successes. This could be done in several ways: (a) selection
of subjects; (b) selection of particular blocks of data out of larger samples;
(c) selection of one of several forms of analysis; and (d) selective reporting
of particular studies. The questions raised have sometimes been stated
cynically in the form, "Parapsychologists must run 100 subjects before
they find one with 'ESP'." As if in defense against this charge, a number
of the reported studies specifically stated that all of the data collected were
included in the analysis (see 43, pp. 118-124, Table 12).
Concerning selection of subjects, Warner (76) suggested two criteria:
first, results of "poor" subjects must be included up to the point when
they are discontinued since it does not matter how many trials a given
subject makes as long as all of the trials (for all subjects) are included;
second, exclude all preliminary trials (for both "good" and "poor" sub- __
jects) and use preliminary screening studies to select "good" candidates for
formal work. These criteria were generally endorsed by the chief critics of
the period (e.g., 23).
The question of post hoc selection of analyses was not a point of serious
concern in the period between 1934 and 1940, though it is relevant to the
assessment of some of the process-oriented investigations reported more
recently. The question of whether nonsignificant studies were withheld
from publication involves an issue which is of great concern to the be-
havioral sciences as a whole (70, 81) and one which is difficult to accurately
assess since there is no way of knowing how many studies may have been
withheld from publication because their results failed to disconfirm the
null hypothesis.
Several studies of American Psychological Association publication poli-
cies (4, 70, 81) indicate that experimental studies in general are more likely
to be published if the null hypothesis is rejected at the conventional .05
and .01 alpha levels than if it is not rejected. These studies also indicate
that a negligible proportion of published studies are replications. Bozarth
and Roberts (4), in a survey of 1,384 articles from psychological journals,
found that 94 percent of the articles involving statistical tests of significance
reported rejection of specific null hypotheses; only eight articles (less than
1 percent) involved replications of previously published studies.
.
With respect to the implications of such selection for the ESP hypothesis,
there are two partial answers. First, considering the degree of critical inter-
est which prevailed in the 1930s, it seems unlikely that nonsignificant find-
ings would have been repressed during this period; second, the high levels
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Paranormal Communication / "Error Some Plac
It is clear that at least some of the early exploratory series reported in
Rhine's monograph were open to criticism for inadequate controls against
sensory cues. While Rhine did not base major conclusions on such poorly
controlled data, inclusion of them in his monograph provided a ready target
for critical reviewers and sidetracked discussion away from the better con-
trolled work, such as the Pearce-Pratt series, which was not susceptible to
explanation by sensory cues.
1
1
:
Defects in an early commercial printing of ESP cards were reported by
several investigators (18, 25). It was found that the cards were warped and
could under certain conditions be identified from the back. This discovery
circulated widely for a time as an explanation of all successful (i.e., statis-
tically significant) experimental series. The parapsychologists retorted that
defective cards had not been employed in any of the experiments reported
in the literature and that, in any case, they could not account for results
from studies involving adequate screening with such devices as opaque
envelopes, screens, distance, or work involving the precognition paradigm
in which the target sequences were not generated until after the subject
had made his responses (53, 54, 72).
By 1940 nearly one million experimental trials had been reported under
conditions which precluded sensory leakage. These included five studies
in which the target cards were enclosed in opaque sealed envelopes (41, 45,
46, 54, 59), 16 studies employing opaque screens (7, 8, 11, 19, 33, 34, 35, 38,
41, 42, 44, 45, 46, 59, 71), ten studies involving separation of subjects and
targets in different buildings (50, 51, 52, 53, 34, 32, 8, 77, 61, 60), and two
studies involving precognition tasks (59, 75). These data are summarized in
Table 1. The results were independently significant in 27 of the 33 experi-
ments. By the end of the 1930s there was general agreement that the better-
controlled ESP experiments could not be accounted for on the basis of
sensory leakage.
The hypothesis that significant "extrachance" deviations in ESP experi-
ments might be attributable to motivated scoring errors was investigated in
several studies. In one investigation (26), 28 observers recorded 11,125 mock
ESP trials. Of these, 126 (1.13 percent) were misrecorded. Observers favor-
Table 1: ESP card-guessing experiments (1934-1939) excluding sensory cues'
Method
Studies
N (Trials)
Mean/25
P<
7
"Clairvoyance" paradigm,
stimuli in sealed, opaque
envelopes
5
129,775
5.21
4.0 ×10-11
7.56
0
"Clairvoyance" paradigm,
stimuli concealed by opaque
screens
16
497,450
5.44
2.0× 10-11 31.03
0.1
Distanceb
10
164,475
5.37
10-11 15.00
0.
Precognition paradigme
2
115,330
5.15
2.95/X 10-
5.09
2.
F =
· References given in text.
b Includes work with both "telepathy" and "clairvoyance" paradigms"
. Stimuli generated after subjects made their responses
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Two recent examples, one involving cancer research (74) and the oth
involving parapsychology (57), serve to remind us of the importance
cross-validation in the assessment of any experimental finding. In both
cases, it should be added, the fraudulent acts were detected in-house, 2 .
the researchers themselves. The point is that in the final analysis an expe
mental finding is of value and is to be taken seriously only to the extent
that it leads to further inquiry. To regard any experiment as an end in
itself is to remove it from the domain of experimental science. It is obvio
that hypothetical construct, such as ESP, cannot be validated by any
isolated experiment, no matter how well controlled it might be. Inde-
pendent replication is a necessary prerequisite.
The claim that psi phenomena operate
outside the framework of physical probabili
has been a major source of_
priori arguments against acceptance of ESP.
It has been suggested that to accept ESP requires the rejection
physics. This is absurd, and it is worth noting that such arguments have
usually been advanced and defended by psychologists rather than h.
physicists.
The debate over the incompatibility of physics and ESP has been
conducted almost exclusively within the framework of nineteenth-century
deterministic physics, wherein the ultimate constituent of physical reali
was still believed to be solid matter. Inasmuch as modern microphysics has
exorcised the material out of matter and deals with processes which on
our macrophysical level of sensory perception are every bit as erratic ar
anomalous as ESP, the a priori claim that ESP violates specifiable law's _
physics can no longer be considered to be of more than historical interest.
ESP and other psi phenomena, while no longer incompatible wi
physics, are not yet accounted for by physics; but then, neither are th
more familiar processes of memory and conscious experience. Indeed, the
transformation of "raw feels" into conscious experience is no less a problem
for the neurophysiologists of today than it was for the speculative philc
ophers of classical antiquity. Sir John Eccles, among others, has repeatedly
warned, "We should not pretend that consciousness is not a mystery."
The ESP controversy illustrates several features of the paradigmat .-
view of science developed by Thomas Kuhn (28). Normal science, according,
to Kuhn, is essentially a clean-up operation, constrained by a bro:
theoretical framework, or paradigm, which defines the boundaries of legi
mate inquiry. Paradigms are scientific world views which provide coherence
and structure and determine the types of questions to be posed of natur-
as well as the manner in which answers are sought. Normal science is the
a process of paradigm-articulation, rather than of discovery. Within the
paradigm structure of normal science, observations which conflict with
:
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Paranormal Communication : "Ever Mis Place!"
remaining (
scientist is ignorance, ignorante concerning
the work
ming at implications. The typical scientist
contcius ha
ting .. some criticism that of west apolicy
published studies. But these findings ( which
challenge os
enty of space and time) are if valid. of extir
mous impa
cyought not to be ignored
Following
"It on miracles, Price asserted, that!
"incompatibil.
sentifc theory," and that it is therefore foot
parsimonious 1
parapsychologieis cheat than that ESP
real phenoitien.
ed, "My opinion concertos the andings cf
the parapsycs.
prany of them ate dependent po clerical and
statistical errois and uniniennipna use of sensory dues, oramai alle
chance results non te explicaule are dependent on deliberate Isaid or mildly.
nbnormal niental conditiono" (47, p. 360) His extradroinary gir que
the ensuing discussion ir 5heute (5, 36, 48. 55, 54,65) were widely reviewed
As Mechi and seiten He) pin tec out, , Price's argument rests on two mig
questionable Assumpti
molly that contemporary scientific knowledge
is complete.
Far Wecesarily co Sicos with x. 3
years
later, in an :
(love and Soal," Pri
Jetraced his accusations
of investigate, Men Vipr
Very similar wwwthey have howery, be mad
the British
his examination " tft dan
pothesis hy suget
arguments
time and effor
experiments,
we, a priori argue
advance that sierpins's
Because
of the literate
Wolasily on the poss
or investigate,
derth fou.
as providing \n\
Hay of ESP: the already
distante kris
WWoodruff
and Soal's wer
fewart and Dusi!
a's
a more reccar
case, hoy fis
and Bowder
an commi ted (by)
Pratt-Weedet
Prati and Son
was commitin
iments Jor End, If the result
prisen through
Kræriment must be considered heathfactor
aroof of .EXP
it is finally decided that such file was to
Rine;
@ single expy
Conclusive, then pibreeds
is, given, the
Hansel's or
billy of freud
Țubj
papež o
was that the
and
rlesive proc
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1
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. ....... .
ar inasmuch is 1.
white properly Insiuis that

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. Table 2: Breakdown of experimental ESP studies (1934-1939)
ÎN
N studies reported
(Studies)
significant (p < . 01)
% signif.
Duke group
17
15
88
Non-Duke
33
20
61
Total
50
35
70
* * Includes all English-language studies Involving assessment of statistical significar.
of data, 1934-1939 inclusive.
x' (Duke vs. non-Duke X significant vs. nonsignificant) = 1.70 (1 df)
sequences have been "doctored" prior to publication in order to remo.
certain nonrandom features; this practice, according to Spencer Brown,
" makes such sequences nonrandom and invalidates the use of standa
significance tests; (b) the source of some random, number sequences involy
randomizing machines which utilize the unpredictability of human be-
havior when examined for microscopic: variation; such variation, sa".
Spencer Brown, may be predictable enough to account for observed ano:
alies in random sequences, as well as some of the significant results reported
in ESP guessing experiments; (c) Spencer Brown produces evidence to show
that anomalous (significant) departures from probability theory can :
Obtained by matching columns of random numbers (39).
A detailed examination of these points was undertaken by Scott (64).
With respect to "doctored" sequences, Scott showed that the maximu
error due to rejected (edited) sequences would not affect interpretatio,
of results which are more than marginally significant and could, in fact,
increase the likelihood of making a Type II error. On the hypothesis th
ESP results are due to some kind of hyper-regularity affecting both t
target sequence and the response (guess) sequence simultaneously and
similarly, Scott makes the point that this would lead to the expectation of
similar results from matching any set of humanly produced random
quences. The cross-check type of control series and the Greenwood chance
control series described earlier demonstrate that this is not the case. The
anomalies reported by Spencer Brown (68), obtained by arbitrarily matchi ;
columns of random numbers, have been criticized on the basis of post h .:
selection (40) and illustrate not that there are fundamental defects in prob-
ability theory, but rather that significant deviations from chance c 1
occur in any data where hypotheses and analyses are not specified in advan _.
The most recent phase of the ESP controversy centers on the hypothesis
of investigator fraud: This argument was most forcefully presented ir 1
lead article in Science, entitled "Science and the Supernatural," by G. .
Price (47), who began with the following observations:
sign . :
Believers in psychic phenomena . . . appear to have won a decis :
victor and virtually silenced opposition. ... This victory is the res _!
of an impressive amount of careful experimentation and intelligent
argumentation.
Against all this evidence, almost the only deje. :
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Paranorial Communication
"Error Some Place!"
of significance attached to some of the reported ESP investigations would
necessitate postulating astronomical numbers of "chance" trials in order
to dilute the overall deviations to chance. To take one example, consider
the Pearce-Pratt series of 1,850 trials which yielded p = 10-22. As Soal and
Bateman (66) pointed out, it is difficult to believe that 1010 (ten thousand
million) sets of 1,850 trials could have possibly been carried out between
1984 and 1940 (or, for that matter, since 1940). But, as Soal and Bateman
suggest, ". .. if we posit this absurd estimate as an upper limit [with overall
chance totals], that would still give us odds of 1010 . .. against the supposi-
tion that the Pearce-Pratt results were a run of pure luck."
The possibility of obtaining significant "extrachance" results by stopping
an experimental series at "favorable" points was also raised (9, 31). While
this "optional stopping" hypothesis was generally agreed to be of significance
only in cases of marginally significant results, it led to the adoption of
several procedural modifications: specification of the total number of trials
in advance of data collection, or accumulation of data in blocks of pre-
determined size.
The possibility was raised by several critics that hand-shuffled cards may
display a tendency to stick together or otherwise produce patterns which
could produce spurious results (24, 82). While the cross-check type of con-
trol series, described earlier, failed to reveal any evidence of patterning,
there was a general trend away from hand shuffling in the later published
studies, which utilized tables of prepared random numbers as a basis for
generating target sequences.
There was-and is (e.g., 15)-a rather widespread belief that most of
the evidence supporting the ESP hypothesis originated in the Duke Uni-
versity studies and that most independent replications by other investigators
were nonconfirmatory. A survey of the published literature between 1934
and 1940 fails to support this claim. Table 2 shows all the published experi-
mental reports during this period which provided statistical treatment of
the data. Inspection of this table reveals that a majority (61 percent) of
the outside replications report significant results (p < . 01) and that the
proportion of significant studies was not significantly greater for the Duke
University group (x2 = 1.70, 1 df).
By 1940, the active methodological
controversy was over.
The issues raised were, for the most part, legitimate, and investigators
modified their procedures to safeguard their results from methodological
criticism. The major issues raised since 1940 center on alleged anomalies in
probability theory and the hypothesis of widespread investigator fraud.
Spencer Brown (68, 69) has suggested that statistically significant card-
guessing studies provide evidence, not of extrasensory modes of communica-
tion, but of fundamental defects in probability theory. He makes three
criticisms of random number sequences: (a) published random number
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the paradigm are seldom made: anomalies are ignored. When the anomalies
become sufficiently persistent that they can no longer be ignored, they
are hotly disputed. Eventually, a new paradigm is tentatively erected
which attracts a group of adherents, and a period of crisis ensues which
Kuhn calls a paradigm clash.
:
In this review I have focused at some length on the period of the
1930s, not because it provides the best available evidence for ESP or
the best understanding of the processes underlying its operation-it does
neither, but rather because it was during this period that the major
substantive methodological issues were raised and to a large extent con-
sensually resolved. Since 1940, well over 10,000 journal pages devoted to
parapsychological research have been published, and at least 250 experi-
mental studies have been reported. The methodological foundations of
the research have gradually diversified, enlarging and enriching the scope
of inquiry and providing a basis for more sophisticated study. Automated
testing equipment has replaced card-guessing in forced-choice ESP tasks,
and quantitative methods have been developed for the objective assessment
of psi interactions in nonguessing tasks. Psychophysiological techniques,
permitting determination of psi-optimal organismic states, have been in-
troduced and utilized in conjunction with experimental methods more
closely approximating the conditions 'under which psi interactions occur
in vivo. More important, parapsychological investigators have to a large
extent shifted their attention away from the "proof-oriented" approach,
which can only reaffirm the presence of anomaly, toward systematic at-
tempts to identify the antecedent conditions necessary for the occurrence
and detection of psi interactions, the delineation of positive attributes,
and the study of individual differences. Only through the pursuit of such
"process-oriented" research can we ever hope to achieve the goals of control,
assured replicability (or at least predictability), and eventual understanding.
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11. Gibson, E. P. "A Study of Comparative Performance in Several ESP Procedures."
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41. Pratt, J. C. "Clairvoyant Blind Matching." Journal of Parapsychology 1. 1937, pp.
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.
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Journal of Parapsychology, Vol. 53, December 1989
"FUTURE TELLING": A META-ANALYSIS OF
FORCED-CHOICE PRECOGNITION
EXPERIMENTS, 1935-1987
BY CHARLES HONORTON AND DIANE C. FERRARI
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ABSTRACT: We report a meta-analysis of forced-choice precognition experiments
published in the English-language parapsychological literature between 1935 and
1987. These studies involve attempts by subjects to predict the identity of target
stimuli selected randomly over intervals ranging from several hundred milli-
seconds to one year following the subjects' responses. We retrieved 309 studies
reported by 62 investigators. Nearly two million individual trials were contributed
by more than 50,000 subjects. Study outcomes are assessed by overall level of sta-
tistical significance and effect size. There is a small, but reliable overall effect (z
= 11.41, p = 6.3 x 10-25). Thirty percent of the studies (by 40 investigators) are
significant at the 5% significance level. Assessment of vulnerability to selective re-
porting indicates that a ratio of 46 unreported studies averaging null results would
be required for each reported study in order to reduce the overall result to nonsig-
nificance. No systematic relationship was found between study outcomes and eight
indices of research quality. Effect size has remained essentially constant over the
survey period, whereas research quality has improved substantially. Four moder-
ating variables appear to covary significantly with study outcome: Studies using
subjects selected on the basis of prior testing performance show significantly larger
effects than studies using unselected subjects. Subjects tested individually by an
experimenter show significantly larger effects than those tested in groups. Studies
in which subjects are given trial-by-trial or run-score feedback have significantly
larger effects than those with delayed or no subject feedback. Studies with brief
intervals between subjects' responses and target generation show significantly
stronger effects than studies involving longer intervals. The combined impact of
these moderating variables appears to be very strong. Independently significant
outcomes are observed in seven of the eight studies using selected subjects, who
were tested individually and received trial-by-trial feedback.
Precognition refers to the noninferential prediction of future
events. Anecdotal claims of "future telling" have occurred through-
out human history in virtually every culture and period. Today such
This work was funded by SRI International and the John E. Fetzer Foundation.
We wish to thank our PRL colleague George P. Hansen, who is primarily responsible
for retrieving the studies used in the meta-analysis. We are grateful to Edwin C. May,
Jessica Utts, and to live anonymous reviewers at SRI for valuable comments on an
carlier draft of this report. Valuable comments were also made by Ephraim Schechter
and by three anonymous referees. The division of authorship responsibility is as fol-
lows: Honorton is responsible for the design of the meta-analysis, definition of study
coding criteria, the actual analyses, and the report itself. Ferrari coded the individual
research reports in consultation with Honorton and/or Hansen.
.
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282
The Journal of Parapsychology
claims are generally believed to be based on factors such as delusion,
irrationality, and superstitious thinking. The concept of precogni-
tion runs counter to accepted notions of causality and appears to
conflict with current scientific theory. Nevertheless, over the past
hegf-century a substantial number of experiments have been re-
poted claiming empirical support for the hypothesis of precogni-
tion. Subjects in forced-choice experiments, according to many re-
ports, have correctly predicted to a statistically significant degree the
idontity (or order) of target stimuli randomly selected at a later
tippe .
We performed a meta-analysis of forced-choice precognition ex-
piments published in the English-language research literature be-
tween 1935 and 1987. Four major questions were addressed
through this meta-analysis: (1) Is there overall evidence for accurate
tagget identification (above-chance hitting) in experimental precog-
nigon studies? (2) What is the magnitude of the overall precognition
effect? (3) Is the observed effect related to variations in methodo-
logical quality that could allow a more conventional explanation? (1)
Does precognition performance vary systematically with potential
moderating variables, such as differences in subject populations,
stimulus conditions, experimental setting, knowledge of results, and
tinge interval between subject response and target generation?
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DELINEATING THE DOMAIN
Rosieval of Studies
SParapsychological research is still academically taboo, and it is
unlikely that there have been many dissertations and theses in this
arg that have escaped publication. Our retrieval of studies for this
mga-analysis is therefore based on the published literature. The
stiglies include all forced-choice precognition experiments appear-
inQin the peer-reviewed English-language parapsychology journals:
Journal of Parapsychology, Journal (and Proceedings) of the Society for
Psychical Research, Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research,
European Journal of Parapsychology (including the Research Letter of
the. Utrecht University Parapsychology Laboratory), and abstracts of
peer-reviewed papers presented at Parapsychological Association
meetings published in Research in Parapsychology.
Criteria for Inclusion
Our review is restricted to fixed-length studies in which signifi-
cance levels and effect sizes based on direct hitting can be calcu-
.
.
A Meta-Analysis of Forced-Choice Precognition Experiments 283
lated. Studies using outcome variables other than direct hitting, such
as run-score variance and displacement effects, are included only if
the report provides relevant information on direct hits (i.e., number
of trials, hits, and probability of a hit). Finally, we exclude studies
conducted by two investigators, S. G. Soal and Walter J. Levy, who
work has been unreliable.
Many published reports contain more than one experiment
experimental unit. In experiments involving multiple conditions
significance levels and effect sizes are calculated for each condition
Outcome Measures
Significance level. Significance levels (z scores) were calculated fos
each study from the reported number of trials, hits, and probability
of success using the normal approximation to the binomial distr
bution with continuity correction. Positive z scores indicate above
chance scoring, and negative z scores reflect below-chance scoring
Effect size. Because most parapsychological experiments, partie
ularly those in the older literature, have used the trial rather that
the subject as the sampling unit, we use a trial-based estimator o
effect size. The effect size (ES) for each study is the z score divided
by the square root of the number of trials in the study.1
General Characteristics of the Domain
We located 309 studies in 113 separate publications. These stuck
ies were contributed by 62 different senior authors and were pub
lished over a 53-year period, between 1935 and 1987. Considerin
the half-century time-span over which the precognition experiment
were conducted, it is not surprising that the studies are very diverse
The database comprises nearly two million individual trials and
more than 50,000 subjects. Study sample sizes range from 25
297,060 trials (median = 1,194). The number of subjects ranges
from 1 to 29,706 (median = 16). The studies use a variety of metlf
odologies, ranging from guessing ESP cards and other card symbols
to automated random number generator experiments. The domain
encompasses diverse subject populations: the most frequently used
1 Elsewhere (Honorton, 1985), we have used the effect size index Cohen's h
(Cohen, 1977), and one referee has asked that we explain why we are now using
zIN1/2. The answer is that h and z/N1/2 yield virtually identical results, and z/N1/2 is.
computationally simpler. For the present sample of 309 precognition studies, the
mean difference between the two indices is .00047, and the standard deviation of the
difference is .026: {(308) = 0.312, p = . 756, two-tailed. The correlation between the
two indices is .97.
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A Meta-Analysis of Forced-Choice Precognition Experiments 285
TABLE 1
OVERALL SIGNIFICANCE LEVEL AND EFFECT SIZE
.
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Z
ES
Mean
SD
0.65
0.020
2.68
0.100
Lower 95% confidence estimate
0.40
0.011
Combined z = 11.41, p = 6.3 x 10 -25
"Fail-safe N" = 14,268
(ES) = 3.51, 308 df, p = . 00025
population is students (in approximately 40% of the studies); the
least frequently used populations are the experimenters themselves
and animals (each used in about 5% of the studies).
Though a few studies tested subjects through the mail, more typ-
ically subjects were tested in person, either individually or in groups.
'Target selection methods included no randomization at all (studies
using "quasi-random" naturalistic events), informal methods includ-
ing manual card-shuffling or dice-throwing, and formal methods,
primarily random number tables or random number generators.
The time interval between the subjects' responses and target gen-
eration varied from less than one second to one year.
OVERALL CUMULATION
Evidence for an overall effect is strong. As shown in the top part
of Table 1, the overall results are highly significant.2 Lower bound
(one-tailed) 95% confidence estimates of the mean z score and ES
are displayed in the bottom portion of Table 1.
Ninety-two studies (30%) show significant hitting at the 5% level,
and significant outcomes are contributed by 40 different investiga-
tors. The z scores correlate significantly with sample size: r(307) =
.156, p = . 003. The mean number of trials for significant studies is
34% larger than the mean number of trials for nonsignificant stud-
ies.
2 The statistical analyses presented here were performed using SYSTAT (Wilk-
inson, 1988). When i tests are reported on samples with unequal variances, they are
calculated using the separate variances within groups for the error and degrees of
freedom following Brownlee (1965). Unless otherwise specified, p levels are one-
tailed. Combined z's are based on Stouffer's method (Rosenthal, 1984).
C
.
0
· Investigator
0
.
.0
O
0
O
Ô
00
-0.2
-0.1
-0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4 .
0.5
Mean effect size
Figure 1. Mean effect size by investigator. N = 62 investigators.
Replication Across Investigators
Virtually the same picture emerges when the cumulation is byg
investigator rather than study as the unit of analysis; the combined
z is 12.13, and 23 of the 62 investigators (37%) have overall out-
comes significant at the 5% level: The mean (investigator) effect size
is 0.033 (SD = . 093).
There is a significant difference in the mean ES across investi-
gators, but it is surprisingly small: Kruskal-Wallis one-way ANOVA
by ranks, x2(61) = 82.71, p = . 034. The effect is clearly not due to
a few major contributors. If investigators contributing more than
three studies are eliminated, leaving 33 investigators, the combined
z is still 6,00 (p = 1.25 × 10-9) and the mean ES is .028 (SD =
.091). Figure 1 shows the mean effect sizes by investigator.
These results indicate substantial cross-investigator replicability
and directly contradict the claim of critics such as Akers (1987) that
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successful parapsychological outcomes are achieved by only a few
investigators.
The Filedrawer Problem
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Sciences favoring publication of "significant" studies (e.g., Sterling,
9959). The extreme view of this "filedrawer problem" is that "the
Burnals are filled with the 5% of the studies that show Type I er-
Fors, while the filedrawers back at the lab are filled with the 95% of
che studies that show nonsignificance ... " (Rosenthal, 1984, p. 108).
Recognizing the importance of this problem, the Parapsychological
Association in 1975 adopted an official policy against selective re-
gorting of positive results.3 Examination of the parapsychological lit-
Prature shows that nonsignificant results are frequently published,
and, in the precognition database, 70% of the studies have reported
Aonsignificant results. Nevertheless, 75% of the precognition studies
were published before 1975, and we must ask to what extent selec-
tive publication bias could account for the cumulative effects we ob-
Srve.
The central section of Table 1 uses Rosenthal's (1984) "fail-safe
statistic to estimate the number of unreported studies with z
scores averaging zero that would be necessary to reduce the known
¿Stabase to nonsignificance. The filedrawer estimate indicates that
Rer 46 unreported studies must exist for each reported study to
Educe the cumulative outcome to a nonsignificant level.
:ECIA-RDP9600789R063100030801-4
" A different approach to the filedrawer problem is described by
Dawes, Landman, and Williams (1984; personal communication
from Dawes to Honorton, July 14, 1988). Their truncated normal
arve analysis, like Rosenthal's "fail-safe N," is based on normal
curve assumptions. Their null hypothesis is that z scores above some
pitical level (e.g., z = 1.65, 1.96, etc.) are randomly sampled from
(0,1) above that critical level. The alternative to the null hypothesis
that, because there is some real effect, the distribution of z's is
shifted to the right of 0 and the z's will be larger than predicted by
the null. For a critical level of z = 1.65, the expected mean z is 2.06
and the variance is .14. In the precognition database, there are 92
studies with z's > 1.65. Their average is 3.61, not 2.06 as predicted
$ Analyses indicate no significant difference in the magnitude of reported study
outcomes before and after 1975. The mean ES for studies prior to 1975 is 0,021 (SD)
= . 099), and for studies reported thereafter the mean is 0.017 (SD = . 106): ((307)
= 0.28. p = . 782. two-tailed.
.
A Meta-Analysis of Forced-Choice Precognition Experiments
by the null hypothesis. Since the variance of the normal truncated
above 1.65 is .14, the test z (using the Central Limit Theorem) com-
paring 3.61 to 2.06 is 39.84 [1.55 divided by (.14/92)1/2]. Here, p is
virtually zero. Similar results are found with cut points of 1.96, 2.33,
and 2.58.
On the basis of these analyses, we conclude that the cumulative
significance of the precognition studies cannot satisfactorily be ex-
plained by selective reporting.
OUTLIER REDUCTION
Although the overall z scores and effect sizes cannot reasonably
be attributed to chance, inspection of the standard deviations in
Table 1 indicates that the study outcomes are extremely heteroge-
neous. Given the diversity of methods, subject populations, and
other study features that characterize this research domain, this is
not surprising.
The study outcomes are in fact extremely heterogeneous. Al-
though a major objective of this meta-analysis is to account for the
variability across studies by blocking on differences in study quality,
procedural features, and sampling characteristics, the database
clearly contains extreme outliers. The z scores range from -5.1 to
19.6, a 25-sigma spread! The standardized index of kurtosis (g2) is
9.47, suggesting that the tails of the distribution are much too long
for a normal distribution.
We eliminated the extreme outliers by performing a "10 percent
trim" on the study z scores (Barnett & Lewis, 1978). This involves
eliminating studies with z scores in the upper and lower 10% of the
distribution, and results in an adjusted sample of 248 studies. The
trimmed z scores range from - 2.24 to 3.21 (g) = - 1.1). The re-
vised z scores and effect sizes are presented in Table 2.
Elimination of extreme outliers reduces the combined z scores by
approximately one half, but the outcomes remain highly significant.
Twenty-five percent of the studies (62/248) show overall significant
hitting at the 5% level. Lower bound confidence estimates show that
the mean z's and effect sizes are above 0 at the 95% confidence level.
Elimination of outliers reduces the total number of investigators
from 62 to 57, but the results remain basically the same when the
analyses are based on investigators rather than studies. The com-
bined z is 6.84; 18 of the 57 investigators (31.6%) have overall. sig-
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TABLE 2
SIGNIFICANCE LEVEL AND EFFECT SIZE FOR TRIMMED SAMPLE
Z
ES
Mean
0.38
0.012
SD
1.45
0.065
Leger 95% confidence estimate
0.23
0.005
Combined z = 6.02, p = 1.1 x 10-9
((ES) = 2.90, 247 df, p = . 002
nifcant outcomes at the 5% level. The mean (investigator) ES is
0.020 (SD = . 05).
"For the trimmed sample, the difference in ES across investiga-
tom is not significant: Kruskal-Wallis one-way ANOVA by ranks,
X"(36) = 59.34, p = . 355. If investigators contributing more than
the studies are eliminated, leaving 37 investigators, the combined
z icostill 5.00 (p = 3.0 × 10-7) and the mean ES is 0.022 (SD =
.059). Figure 2 shows the mean effect size by investigator.
Thus, elimination of the outliers does not substantially affect the
coffclusions drawn from our analysis of the database as a whole.
Thore clearly is a nonchance effect. In the remainder of this report,
wepuse the trimmed sample to examine covariations in effect size
anda variety of methodological and other study features.
STUDY QUALITY
because target stimuli in precognition experiments are selected
onl? after the subjects' responses have been registered, precognition
studies are usually not vulnerable to sensory leakage problems.
er potential threats to validity must, however, be considered.
The problem of variations in research quality remains a source of
corgroversy in meta-analysis. Some meta-analysts advocate eliminat-
ingalow quality studies whereas others recommend empirically ac-
cesong the impact of variations in quality on study outcome. Rosen-
that (1984) points out that the practice of discarding studies is
equivalent to assigning them weights of zero, and he recommends
weighting study z scores in relation to ratings of research quality.
Study Quality Criteria
Ideally, the assessment of study quality should be performed by ?
knowledgeable specialists who are blind to the study outcomes. In
0
0
O
0
0
Investigator
0
0
0
00
0
0
O
0
0
O
-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
Mean effect size
Figure 2. Mean effect size by investigator for trimmed sample. N = 57 in-
vestigators.
practice, this is usually not feasible, particularly when, as in the pres-
ent case, large numbers of studies are involved. For our analysis of
study quality, statistical and methodological variables are defined
and coded in terms of procedural descriptions (or their absence) in
the research reports. This approach was used in an earlier meta-
analysis of psi ganzfeld research (Honorton, 1985), and it led to
study quality ratings that were generally in agreement, r(26) = . 766,
p = 10-", with independent "flaw" ratings by an outside critic (Hy-
man, 1985).
One point is given (or withheld) for each of the following eight
criteria:
Specification of sample size. Does the investigator preplan the num-
ber of trials to be included in the study or is the study vulnerable
to the possibility of optional stopping? Credit is given to reports that
explicitly specify the sample size. Studies involving group testing, in
which it is not feasible to specify the sample size precisely, are also
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given credit. No credit is given to studies in which the sample size
is either not preplanned or not addressed in the experimental re-
port.
Preplanned analysis. Is the method of statistical analysis, including
the outcome (dependent variable) measure, preplanned? Credit is
given to studies explicitly specifying the form of analysis and the
outcome measure. No credit is given to those not explicitly stating
the form of the analysis or those in which the analysis is clearly post
hoc.
Randomization method. Credit is given for use of random number
tables, random number generators, and mechanical shufflers. No
credit is given for failure to randomize (i.e., use of "quasi-random
naturalistic events") or for informal methods such as hand-shuffling,
die-casting, and drawing lots.
Controls. Credit is given to studies, reporting randomness control
checks, such as random number generator (RNG) control series and
empirical cross-check controls.
Recording. One point is allotted for automated recording of tar-
gets and responses, and another for duplicate recording.
Checking. One point is allotted for automated checking of
matches between target and response, and another for duplicate
checking of hits.
Study Quality Analysis
Each study received a quality weight between 0 and 8 (mean =
3.3, SD = 1.8). We find no significant relationship between study
~ quality and ES: 1(246) = 081, p = 202, two-tailed. This tendency
for study outcomes to correlate positively with study quality has the
consequence that the quality-weighted z score of 6.26 is slightly
larger than the unweighted z of 6.02. Table 3 shows the correlations
between effect size and each of the eight individual quality meas-
ures.4 The mean effect sizes by quality level are displayed graphi-
cally in Figure 3.
4 The correlation between ES and study quality is also nonsignificant for the un-
trimmed sample of 309 studies: r(307) = -. 060, p = 289. The quality-weighted z
score is 7.38: p = 2.32 x 10-13. However, three of the individual quality measures
are significantly related to performance. Controls and duplicate checking correlate
significantly positively with ES, and randomization correlates significantly negatively
with ES. These correlations appear to be due to a few studies with z scores that are
extreme outliers (z > 7). When the 10 studies with z > 7 are eliminated, the signifi-
cant correlations between quality and ES disappear.
A Meta-Analysis of Forced-Choice Precognition Experiments
291
TABLE 3
CORRELATIONS BETWEEN EFFECT SIZE AND QUALITY MEASURES
Quality measure
r(246)
Sample size specified in advance
- . 100
Preplanned analysis
.001
Randomization
.011
Controls
.058
Automated recording
.169
Duplicate recording
.047
Automated checking
.136
Duplicate checking
.078
Quality Extremes
Is there a tendency for extremely weak studies to show larger
effects than exceptionally "good" studies? Analysis on the extremes
of the quality ratings indicates that this is not the case.
This analysis, based on the untrimmed sample of 309 studies,
uses studies with quality ratings outside the interquartile range of
the rating distribution (median = 4, Q1 = 2, Q3 = 5). There are 56
"low-quality" studies (ratings of 0-1) and 35 "high-quality" studies
(ratings of 6-8). The high-quality studies have effect sizes that are
not significantly lower than the low-quality studies; the ES means
are 0.017 (SD = 0.063) and 0.037 (SD = 0.137), for the low- and
high-quality studies, respectively: t(82) = -. 92, p = . 358, two-
tailed.
Quality Variation in Publication Sources
Precognition ES is not significantly related to source of publica-
tion: Kruskal-Wallis one-way ANOVA, x2(4). = 0.78, p = . 942.
However, the sources of publication differ significantly in study
quality: Kruskal-Wallis one-way ANOVA, x'(4) = 17.19, p = . 002.
This is due largely to the lower quality of studies published in the
Journal of the Society for Psychical Research and in Research in Parapsy-
chology.
Study Quality in Relation to Year of Publication
Precognition effect size has remained constant over a half-cen-
tury of research, even though the methodological quality of the re-
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8
1 5
7
-
-
13
6
1 7
-.
1 45
. 5
-
4
63
3
-
- 35
2
+
41
I
31
0 -
8
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
Mean effect size
Figure 3. Precognition effect size in relation to study quality, with 95% con-
fidenceolimits. N = 248 studies.
search has improved significantly during this period. The correla-
tion b&ween ES and year of publication is -. 071: t(307) = - 1.25,
p = . 2_3, two-tailed. Study quality and year of publication are, how-
ever, sitively and significantly correlated: r(246) = . 282, p = 2 X
10-7, gyo-tailed.
Crigcs of parapsychology have long believed that evidence for
parapsychological effects disappears as the methodological rigor in-
creasegThe precognition database does not support this belief.
"REAL-TIME" ALTERNATIVES TO PRECOGNITION
Investigators have long been aware of the possibility that precog-
ition effects could be modeled without assuming either time rever-
jal or backward causality. For example, outcomes from studies with
A Meta-Analysis of Forced-Choice Precognition Experiments
targets based on indeterminate random number generators (RNGs)
could be due to a causal influence on the RNG-a psychokinetic
(PK) effect-rather than information acquisition concerning its fu-
ture state. In experiments with targets based on prepared tables of
random numbers, the possibility exists that the experimenter or
other randomizer may be the actual psi source, unconsciously using
"real-time" ESP combined with PK to choose an entry point in the
random number sequence that will significantly match the "sub-
ject's" responses. While the latter possibility may seem far-fetched,
it cannot be logically eliminated if one accepts the existing evidence
for contemporaneous ESP and PK, and it has been argued that it is
less far-fetched than the alternative of "true" precognition.
Morris (1982) discusses models of experimental precognition
based on "real-time" psi alternatives and methods for testing "true"
precognition. In general terms, these methods constrain the selec-
tion of the target sequence so as to eliminate nonprecognitive psi
intervention. In the most common procedure, attributed to Mangan
(1955), dice are thrown to generate a set of numbers that are math-
ematically manipulated to obtain an entry point in the random num-
ber table. This procedure is sufficiently complex "as to be appar-
ently beyond the capacities of the human brain, thus ruling out PK
because the 'PKer' would not know what to do even via ESP" (Mor-
ris, 1982, p. 329).
Two features of precognition study target determination proce-
dures were coded to assess "real-time" psi alternatives to precogni-
tion: method of determining random number table entry point and
use of Mangan's method.
.
Methods of eliminating "real-time" psi alternatives have not been
used in studies with random number generators and have only been
used in a small number of studies involving randomization by hand-
shuffling. These analyses are therefore restricted to studies using
random number tables (N = 138).
Method of Determining RNT Entry Point
The reports describe six different methods of obtaining entry.
points in random number tables. If the study outcomes were due to
subjects' precognitive functioning rather than to alternative psi :
modes on the part of the experimenter or the experimenter's as-
sistants, there should be no difference in mean effect size across the
various methods used to determine the entry point. Indeed, our
analysis indicates that the study effect sizes do not vary systemati-
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cally as a function of method of determining the entry point: Krus-
kal-Wallis one-way ANOVA by ranks: x"(5) = 7.32, p = . 198.
Use of Mangan's Method
We find no significant difference in ES between studies using
complex calculations of the type introduced by Mangan to fix the
random number table entry point and those that do not use such
calculations: t(45) = 0.38, p = . 370, two-tailed.
MODERATING VARIABLES
The stability of precognition study outcomes over a 50-year pe-
riod, which we described earlier, is also bad news. It shows that in-
vestigators in this area have yet to develop sufficient understanding
Fof the conditions underlying the occurrence (or detection) of these
" effects to reliably increase their magnitude. We have identified four
variables that appear to covary systematically with precognition ES:
(1) selected versus unselected subjects, (2) individual versus group
"testing, (3) feedback level, and (4) time interval between subject re-
sponse and target generation.
The analyses use the raw study z scores and effect sizes; we
found that this results in uniformly more conservative estimates of
relationships with moderating variables than when the analyses are
õ based on quality-weighted z scores and effect sizes.
Selected Versus Unselected Subjects
Our meta-analysis identifies eight subject populations: unspeci-
fied subject populations, mixtures of several different populations,
animals, students, children, "volunteers," experimenter(s), and se-
lected subjects.
Effect size magnitude does not vary significantly across these
eight subject populations: Kruskal-Wallis one-way ANOVA, x2(7) =
10.90, p = . 143. Effect sizes by subject population are displayed in
Figure 4.
However, studies using subjects selected on the basis of prior
performance in experiments or pilot tests show significantly larger
effects than studies using unselected subjects. As shown in Table 4,
60% of the studies with selected subjects are significant at the 5%
level. The mean z score for these studies is 1.39 (SD = 1.40). The
ES is significantly higher for selected-subjects studies than for stud-
A Meta-Analysis of Forced-Choice Precognition Experiments
295
Selected
25
12
Exptr
1-
Volunteer
26
Subject population
Children
31
Students
108
Animals
10
Mixed
28
Unspec
8
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
Mean effect size
Figure 4. Precognition effect size by subject population, with 95% confi-
dence limits. N = 248 studies.
ies with unselected subjects. The t test of the difference in mean ES
is equivalent to a point-biserial correlation of .198.
Does this difference result from less stringent controls in studies
with selected subjects? The answer appears to be "No." The average
quality of studies with selected subjects is higher than studies using
TABLE 4
SELECTED VERSUS UNSELECTED SUBJECTS
Selected
Unselected
N studies
25
223
Combined z
6.89
4.04
Studies with.p. < . 05
60%
21%
Mean ES
.051
.008
SDES
.075
.063
((246) = 3.16, p = . 001
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TABLE 5
INDIVIDUAL VERSUS GROUP TESTING
Individual
Group
N studies
97
105
Combined z
6.64
1.29
Studies with p < . 05
30%
19%
..
Mean ES
.021
.004
SDES
.060
.066
{ (200) = 1.89, p = . 03
unselected subjects: ((27) = 1.51, p = . 142, two-tailed. This result
appears to reflect a general tendency toward increased rigor and
more detailed reporting in studies with selected subjects.
Individual Versus Group Testing
Subjects were tested in groups, individually, or through the mail.
Studies in which subjects were tested individually by an experimen-
ter have a significantly larger mean ES than studies involving group
testing (Table 5).
The t test of the difference is equivalent to a point-biserial cor-
relation of .132, favoring individual testing. Of the studies with sub-
jects tested individually, 30% are significant at the 5% level.
The methodological quality of studies with subjects tested indi-
vidually is significantly higher than that of studies involving group
testing: {(137) = 3.08, p = . 003, two-tailed. This result is consistent
with the conjecture that group experiments are frequently con-
ducted as "targets of opportunity" and may often be carried out
hastily in an afternoon without the preparation and planning that
go into a study with individual subjects that may be conducted over
a period of weeks or months.
Thirty-five studies were conducted through the mail. In these
studies, subjects completed the task at their leisure and mailed their
responses to the investigator. These correspondence studies yield
outcomes similar to those involving individual testing. The com-
bined z score is 2.66, with a mean ES of 0.018 (SD = . 082). Ten
correspondence studies (25.7%) are significant at the 5% level.
Eleven studies are unclassifiable with regard to experimental set-
ting.
TABLE 6
FEEDBACK RECEIVED BY SUBJECTS
Feedback of Results
None
Delayed
Run score Trial-by-trial
N studies
15
21
21
47
Combined z
1.30
2.11
4.74
6.98
Studies with p < . 05
0.0%
19.0%
33.3%
42.6%
Mean ES
-. 001
.009
023
.035
SD KS
.028
.036
.048
.072
Feedback
A significant positive relationship exists between the degree of
feedback subjects receive about their performance and precognitive
effect size (Table 6).
Subject feedback information is available for 104 studies. These
studies fall into four feedback categories: no feedback, delayed
feedback (usually notification by mail), run-score feedback, and
trial-by-trial feedback. We gave these categories numerical values
between 0 and 3. Precognition effect size correlates .231 with feed-
back level (102 df, p = . 009). Of the 47 studies involving trial-by-
trial feedback, 20 (42.6%) are significant at the 5% level. None of
the studies without subject feedback are significant.
Feedback level correlates positively though not significantly with
research quality: r(102) = . 173, p = . 082, two-tailed. Inadequate
randomization is the most plausible source of potential artifacts in
studies with trial-by-trial feedback. We performed a separate analy-
sis on the 47 studies in this group. Studies using formal methods of
randomization do not differ significantly in mean ES from those
with informal randomization: t(15) = 0.67, p = . 590, two-tailed.
Similarly, studies reporting randomness control data do not differ
significantly in ES from those not including randomness controls:
(42) = 0.79, p = . 436, two-tailed.
Time Interval
The interval between the subject's response and target selection.
ranges from less than one second to one year. Information about
the time interval is available for 144 studies. This information, how-
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.
Months
1-
7
Weeks
17
Precognition interval
Days
15
Hours
35
Minutes
19
Seconds
20
Millisec
31
-0.06
-0.04
- 0.02
0.00
0.02
0.01
0,00
0,08
0,10
Mean effect size
Figure 5. Effect size by precognition interval, with 95% confidence limits.
N = 144 studies.
ever, is often imprecise. Our analysis of the relationship between
precognitive ES and time interval is therefore limited to seven broad
interval categories: milliseconds, seconds, minutes, hours, days,
weeks, and months. (Effect sizes by precognition interval are dis-
played in Figure 5.)
Although it is confounded with degree of feedback, there is a
significant decline in precognition ES over increasing temporal dis-
tance: r(142) = -. 199, p = . 017, two-tailed. The largest effects oc-
cur over the millisecond interval: N = 31 studies, combined z =
6.03, mean ES = 0.045, SD = . 073. The smallest effects occur over
periods ranging from a month to a year: N = 7, combined z =
0.53, mean ES = 0.001, SD = . 049.
Interestingly, the decline of precognition performance over in-
creasing temporal distances results entirely from studies using; un-
A Meta-Analysis of Forced-Choice Precognition Experiments
selected subjects: r(122) = - . 235, p = . 009, two-tailed. Studies with
selected subjects show a nonsignificant positive relationship between
ES and time interval: 7(18) = . 077, p = . 745, two-tailed. Although
the difference between these two correlations is not significant (z =
1.24), this suggests that the origin of the decline over time may be
motivational rather than the result of some intrinsic physical bound-
ary condition. The relationship between precognition ES and feed-
back also supports this conjecture. Nevertheless, any finding sug-
gesting potential boundary conditions on the phenomenon should
be vigorously pursued.
Influence of Moderating Variables in Combination
The above analyses examine the impact of each moderating var-
iable in isolation. In this final set of analyses, we explore their joint
influence on precognition performance. For this purpose, we iden-
tify two subgroups of studies. One subgroup is characterized by the
use of selected subjects tested individually with trial-by-trial feed-
back. We refer to this as the Optimal group (N = 8 studies). The
second group is characterized by the use of unselected subjects
tested in groups with no feedback. We refer to this as the Suboptimal
group (N = 9 studies).
The Optimal studies are contributed by four independent inves-
tigators and the Suboptimal studies are contributed by two of the
same four investigators. All of the Optimal studies involve short pre-
cognition time intervals (millisecond interval); the Suboptimal stud-
ies involve longer intervals (intervals of weeks or months). All of the
Optimal studies and 5 of the 9 Suboptimal studies use RNG meth-
odology. The two groups do not differ significantly in average sam-
ple size. The mean study quality for the Optimal group is signifi-
cantly higher than that of the Suboptimal studies: Optimal mean =
6.63, SD = 0.92; Suboptimal mean = 3.44, SD = 0.53; t(10) =
8.63, p = 3.3 × 10-6, two-tailed.
The combined impact of the moderating variables appears to be
quite strong (Table 7). Seven of the 8 Optimal studies (87.5%) are
independently significant at the 5% level, whereas none of the Sub-
optimal studies are statistically significant. All four investigators con-
tributing studies to the Optimal group have significant outcomes.5.
5 .
" In the untrimmed sample of 309 studies, there are a total of 17 Optimal studies.
The mean ES is 0.117 (SD = . 154), and the combined z is 15.84. The percentage of
independently significant studies is virtually the same as it is in the trimmed sample:
15 of the 17 studies (88.2%) are significant.
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TABLE 7
IMPACT OF MODERATORS IN COMBINATION
"Optimal" studies
"Suboptimal" studies
N studies
8
9
Combined z
6.14
- 1.29
Studies with p < . 05
87.5%
0.0%
Mean ES
.055
.005
SD ES
.045
.035
((15) = 2.61, p = . 01
r = . 559
These results are quite striking and suggest that future studies
combining these moderators should yield especially reliable effects.
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
Our meta-analysis of forced-choice precognition experiments
confirms the existence of a small but highly significant precognition
> effect. The effect appears to be replicable; significant outcomes are
[ reported by 40 investigators using a variety of methodological par-
adigms and subject populations.
The precognition effect is statistically very robust: it remains
highly significant despite elimination of studies with z scores in the
upper and lower 10% of the z-score distribution and when a third
of the remaining investigators-the major contributors of precog-
nition studies-are eliminated.
Estimates of the "filedrawer" problem and consideration of para-
psychological publication practices indicate that the precognition ef-
fect cannot plausibly be explained on the basis of selective publica-
tion bias. Analyses of precognition effect sizes in relation to eight
measures of research quality fail to support the hypothesis that the
observed effect is driven to any appreciable extent by methodolog-
ical flaws; indeed, several analyses indicate that methodologically su-
perior studies yield stronger effects than methodologically weaker
studies.
Analyses of parapsychological alternatives to precognition, al-
though limited to the subset of studies using random number tables,
provide no support for the hypothesis that the effect results, from
A Meta-Analysis of Forced-Choice Precognition Experiments
301
the operation of contemporaneous ESP and PK at the time of ran-
domization.
Although the overall precognition effect size is small, this does
not imply that it has no practical consequences. It is, for example,
of the same order of magnitude as effect sizes leading to the early
termination of several major medical research studies. In 1981, the
National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute discontinued its study of
propranolol because the results were so favorable to the propranolol
reatment that it would be unethical to continue placebo treatment
Kolata, 1981); the effect size was 0.04. More recently, The Steering
Committee of the Physicians' Health Study Research Group (1988),
n a widely publicized report, terminated its study of the effects of
ispirin in the prevention of heart attacks for the same reason. The
ispirin group suffered significantly fewer heart attacks than a pla-
:ebo control group; the associated effect size was 0.03.
The most important outcome of the meta-analysis is the identi-
ication of several moderating variables that appear to covary sys-
ematically with precognition performance. The largest effects are
observed in studies using subjects selected on the basis of prior test
performance, who are tested individually, and who receive trial-by-
rial feedback. The outcomes of studies combining these factors con-
rast sharply with the null outcomes associated with the combination
of group testing, unselected subjects, and no feedback of results. Be-
ause the two groups of studies were conducted by a subset of the
ame investigators, it is unlikely that the observed difference in per-
ormance is due to experimenter effects. Indeed, these outcomes
inderscore the importance of carefully examining differences in
ubject populations, test setting, and so forth, before resorting to
acile "explanations" based on psi-mediated experimenter effects or
he "elusiveness of psi."
The identification of these moderating variables has important
nplications for our understanding of the phenomena and provides
clear direction for future research. The existence of moderating
ariables indicates that the precognition effect is not merely an
nexplained departure from a theoretical chance baseline, but
: ather is an effect that covaries with factors known to influence
ore familiar aspects of human performance. It should now be pos-
ible to exploit these moderating factors to increase the magnitude
nd reliability of precognition effects in new studies.
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amination (RB/PS). Research in Parapsychology 1983, 100-101.
HESELTINE, G. L. (1985). PK success during structured and nonstructured
RNG operation. Journal of Parapsychology, 49, 155-163.
HARALDSSON, E., & JOHNSON, M. (1986). The Defense Mechanism Test (DMT)
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VASSY, Z. (1986). Experimental study of complexity dependence in precogni-
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HONORTON, C. (1987). Precognition and real-time ESP performance in a com-
puter task with an exceptional subject. Journal of Parapsychology, 51, 291 -
320.
Psychophysical Research Laboratories
P. O. Box 569
Plainsboro, NJ 08536
1
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PSI COMMUNICATION IN THE GANZFELD
EXPERIMENTS WITH AN AUTOMATED TESTING SYSTEM
AND A COMPARISON WITH A META-ANALYSIS
OF EARLIER STUDIES
BY CHARLES HONORTON, RICK E. BERGER, MARIO P. VARVOGLIS,
. MARTA QUANT, PATRICIA DERR, EPHRAIM I. SCHECHTER, AND
DIANE C. FERRARI
ABSTRACT: A computer-controlled testing system was used in 11 experiments on
ganzfeld psi communication. The automated ganzfeld system controls target selection
and presentation, subjects' blind-judging, and data recording and storage. Video-
taped targets included video segments (dynamic targets) as well as single images
(static targets). Two hundred and forty-one volunteer subjects completed 355 psi
ganzfeld sessions. The subjects, on a blind basis, correctly identified randomly se-
lected and remotely viewed targets to a statistically significant degree, z = 3.89, p =
.00005. Study outcomes were homogeneous across the 11 series and eight different
experimenters. Performance on dynamic targets was highly significant, z = 4.62, p
= . 0000019, as was the difference between dynamic and static targets, p = . 002.
Suggestively stronger performance occurred with friends than with unacquainted
sender/receiver pairs, p = . 0635. The automated ganzfeld study outcomes are com-
pared with a meta-analysis of 28 earlier ganzfeld studies. The two data sets are con-
sistent on four dimensions: overall success rate, impact of dynamic and static targets,
effect of sender/receiver acquaintance, and prior ganzfeld experience. The combined
z for all 39 studies is 7.53, p = 9 x 10-11.
Research on psi communication in the ganzfeld developed as the
result of earlier research suggesting that psi functioning is fre-
quently associated with internal attention states brought about
This work was supported by the James S. McDonnell Foundation of St. Louis,
Missouri, and by the John E. Fetzer Foundation of Kalamazoo, Michigan.
We wish to thank Marilyn J. Schlitz, Peter Rojcewicz, and Rosemarie Pilkington
for their help in recruiting participants; Daryl J. Bem of Cornell University and
Donald McCarthy of St. Johns University for helpful comments on an earlier draft
of this paper; Edwin C. May of SRI International for performing the audio spectrum
analysis; and Robert Rosenthal of Harvard University for suggestions concerning
data analysis. We also wish to thank several PRL colleagues who contributed in var-
ious ways to the work reported here: Nancy Sondow for assistance in the preparation
relaxation exercise and instruction tape that was used throughout, and George
Hansen and Linda Moore who served frequently as lab senders. Hansen also pro-
vided technical assistance and conducted a data audit resulting in the correction of
several minor errors that appeared in a version of this report presented at the 32nd
Annual Convention of the Parapsychological Association. Finally, we thank the 241
volunteer participants for providing us with such interesting data.
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through dreaming, hypnosis, meditation, and similar naturally oc-
curring or artificially induced states (Braud, 1978; Honorton, 1977).
This generalization, based on converging evidence from sponta-
neous case studies, clinical observations, and experimental studies,
led to the development of a low-level descriptive model of psi func-
tioning, according to which, internal attention states facilitate psi de-
tection by attenuating sensory and somatic stimuli that normally
mask weaker psi input (Honorton, 1977, 1978). This "noise-reduc-
tion" model thus identified sensory deprivation as a key to the fre-
quent association between psi communication and internal attention
states, and the ganzfeld procedure was developed specifically to test
the impact of perceptual isolation on psi performance.
· Fifteen years have passed since the initial reports of psi com-
munication in the ganzfeld (Braud, Wood, & Braud, 1975;
Honorton & Harper, 1974; Parker, 1975). Dozens of additional psi
ganzfeld studies have appeared since then, and the success of the
paradigm has triggered substantial critical interest. Indeed, there is
at least one critical review or commentary for every ganzfeld study
reporting significant evidence of psi communication (Akers, 1984;
Alcock, 1986; Blackmore, 1980, 1987; Child, 1986; Druckman &
Swets, 1988; Harley & Matthews, 1987; Harris & Rosenthal, 1988;
Honorton, 1979, 1983, 1985; Hövelmann, 1986; Hyman, 1983,
1985, 1988; Hyman & Honorton, 1986; Kennedy, 1979; McClenon,
1986; Palmer, 1986; Palmer, Honorton, & Utts, 1989; Parker &
Wiklund, 1987; Rosenthal, 1986; Sargent, 1987; Scott, 1986;
Stanford, 1984, 1986; Stokes, 1986; Utts, 1986).
Of the many controversies spanning the history of parapsycholog-
ical inquiry, the psi ganzfeld domain is unique in three respects.
First, the central issue involves the replicability of a theoretically
based technique rather than the special abilities of exceptional in-
dividuals (Honorton, 1977). Second, meta-analytic techniques have
been used to assess statistical significance, effect size, and potential
threats to validity (Harris & Rosenthal, 1988; Honorton, 1985;
Hyman, 1985, 1988; Rosenthal, 1986). Third, investigators and crit-
ics have agreed on specific guidelines for the conduct and evaluation
of future psi ganzfeld research (Hyman & Honorton, 1986).
The Automated Ganzfeld Testing System
Psi ganzfeld experiments typically involve four participants. The
subject (or receiver, R) attempts to gain target-relevant imagery
while in the ganzfeld; following the ganzfeld/imagery period, R
101
Psi Communication in the Ganzfeld
tries-on a blind basis-to identify the actual target from among
four possibilities. A physically isolated sender (Se) views the target
¿and attempts to communicate salient aspects of it to R. Two exper-
imenters (Es) are usually required. One E manages R, elicits R's ver-
bal report of ganzfeld imagery (mentation), and supervises R's blind
judging of the target and decoys; a second E supervises Se, and ran-
domly selects and records the target.
We developed an automated ganzfeld testing system ("autoganz-
feld") to eliminate potential methodological problems that were
identified in earlier ganzfeld studies (Honorton, 1979; Hyman &
Honorton, 1986; Kennedy, 1979) and to explore factors associated
with successful performance. The system provides computer control
of target selection and presentation, blind judging, subject feedback,
and data recording and storage (Berger & Honorton, 1986). A com-
puter-controlled videocassette recorder (VCR) accesses and auto-
matically presents target stimuli to Se. A second E is required only
for assistance in target selection The system includes an experimen-
tal design module through which E specifies the sample size and
status of a new series.
The system was designed to enable further assessment of Factors
identified with successful performance in earlier ganzfeld studies.
Differences in target type and sender/receiver acquaintance seem to
be particularly important. Significantly better performance occurred
in studies using dynamic rather than static targets. Dynamic targets
contain multiple images reinforcing a central theme, whereas static
targets contain a single image. Also, studies permitting subjects to
have friends as their senders yielded significantly superior perfor-
mance compared to those requiring subjects to work, with laboratory
senders. (See "Comparison of Study Outcomes with Ganzfeld Meta-
Analysis" in the Results section.)
The autoganzfeld system uses both dynamic and static targets.
The dynamic targets are excerpts from films; static targets include
art work and photographs. Receivers may, if they choose, bring
friends or family members to serve as their senders; a session setup
module registers the sender type and other session information.
In this report, we present the results of the 11 autoganzfeld
series conducted between the inauguration of the experiments in
February, 1983, and September, 1989, when funding problems
required suspension of the PRL research program.' We focus on
' This article conforms to the reporting guidelines recommended by Hyman and
Honorton (1986). Because of the size of this database, however, it is not practical to
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i no journal of rarapsychology
(1) evidence for psi in the autoganzfeld situation, (2) the impact of
dynamic versus static targets, (3) the effects of sender/receiver ac-
quaintance, (4) the impact of prior psi ganzfeld experience, and
(5) a comparison of these four factors with the outcomes of earlier
nonautomated psi ganzfeld experiments. Our findings on demo-
graphic, psychological, and target factors will be presented in later
reports.
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Subjects
The participants are 100 men and 141 women ranging in age
from 17 to 74 years (mean = 37.3, SD = 11.8). This is a well-
educated group; the mean formal education is 15.6 years (SD =
2.0).
Our primary sources of recruitment include referrals from col-
leagues (24%), media presentations concerning PRL research (23%),
friends or acquaintances of PRL staff (20%), and referrals from
other participants (18%).
Belief in psi is strong in this population. On a seven-point scale
where "1" indicates strong disbelief and "7" indicates strong belief
in psi, the mean is 6.20 (SD = 1.03); only two participants rated
their belief in psi below the midpoint of the scale. Personal experi-
ences suggestive of psi were reported by 88% of the subjects; 80%
reported ostensible telepathic experiences. Eighty percent of the
participants have had some training in meditation or other tech-
niques involving internal focus of attention.
Participant Orientation
Initial contact. New participants receive an information pack be-
fore their first session. The information pack includes a 55-item per-
sonal history survey (Participant Information Form [PIF]; Psycho-
physical Research Laboratories, 1983), Form F of the Myers-Briggs
Type Indicator (MBTI; Briggs & Myers, 1957), general information
about the research program, and directions for reaching PRL. Par-
ticipants usually return the completed questionnaires before their
first session. However, if new participants are scheduled on short
notice, they either complete the questionnaires at PRL or, in a few
cases, at home after the session.
include the data in an appendix to the report. Instead, we will supply the data to
qualified investigators in a Lotus-compatible, MS-DOS computer disk file. There is a
small fee to cover materials and mailing. Address inquiries to the Journal.
Psi Communication in the Ganzfeld
103
Whenever possible, new participants are encouraged to come in
for a preliminary orientation session, prior to their first PRL ganz-
feld session. The orientation serves as a "get acquainted" session for
participants and the PRL staff, and introduces participants to the
PRL program and facility. Participants who avail themselves of this
option generally complete the MBTI and PIF questionnaires during
the orientation session. We inform new participants that they may
bring a friend or family member to serve as their sender. When a
participant chooses not to do so, a PRL staff member serves as
sender. We encourage participants to reschedule their session rather
than feel they must come in to "fulfill an obligation" if they are not
feeling well.
Session orientation. We greet participants at the door when they
arrive and attempt to create a friendly and informal social atmos-
phere. Coffee, tea, and soft drinks are available. E and other staff
members engage in conversation with R during this period. When
a laboratory sender is used, time is taken for sender and receiver to
become acquainted.
If the participant is a novice, we describe the rationale and back-
ground of the ganzfeld research, and we seek to create positive ex-
pectations concerning R's ability to identify the target. This infor-
mation is tailored to our perception of the needs of the individual
participant, but it generally includes four elements: (1) a brief re-
view of experimental, clinical, and spontaneous case trends indicat-
ing that ESP is more readily detected during internal attention states
such as dreaming, hypnosis, and meditation (Honorton, 1977),
(2) the notion that these states all involve physical relaxation and
functional sensory deprivation, suggesting that weak ESP impres-
sions may be more readily detected when perceptual and somatic
noise is reduced, (3) the development of the ganzfeld technique to
test this noise-reduction hypothesis, and (4) the long-term success of
the ganzfeld technique as a means of facilitating psi communication
in unselected subjects.
We encourage "goal orientation" and discourage excessive "task
orientation" during the session; this is especially emphasized with
participants who appear to be anxious or overly concerned about
their ability to succeed in the ganzfeld task. We discourage partici-
pants from analyzing their mentation during the session, and tell
them that they will have an opportunity to analyze their mentation
during the judging procedure. They are encouraged to adopt the
role of an outside observer of their mental processes during the
ganzfeld. Again, this is emphasized with those who appear anxious
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about their performance; they are advised to relax, follow the taped
instructions, and to simply allow the procedure to work. We inform
participants that they may experience various types of correspond-
ence between their mentation and the target; they are told that they
may experience direct, literal correspondences to the target, but that
they should also be prepared for correspondences involving distor-
tions or transformations of the target content, cognitive associations,
and similarities in emotional tone. Finally, we orient new partici-
pants to where Se and E will be located during the session.
METHOD
Layout and Equipment
R and Se are sequestered in nonadjacent, sound-isolated and
electrically shielded rooms. Both rooms are copper-screened, and
are 14 ft apart on opposite sides of E's monitoring room, which pro-
vides the only access. R and Se remain isolated in their respective
rooms until R completes the blind-judging procedure.
R's room is an Industrial Acoustics Corp., IAC 1205A Sound-
Isolation Room, consisting of two 4-inch sheetrock-filled steel
panels. The two panels are separated by a 4-inch air space, for a
total thickness of one foot.
The inside walls and ceiling of Se's room are covered with 4-inch
Sonex® acoustical material, similar to that used in commercial
broadcast studios. A free-standing Sonex-covered plywood barrier
(5 ft wide by 8 ft high) positioned inside the sender's room, between
Se's chair and the acoustical door, blocks sound transmission
through the door frame. Figure I shows the floor plan of the ex-
perimental rooms.
E occupies a console housing the computer system and other
equipment. The computer is an Apple II Plus with two disk drives,
a printer, and an expansion chassis. The computer peripherals in-
clude a real-time clock, a noise-based random number generator
(RNG), a Cavri Interactive Video Interface™, an Apple game pad-
dle, and a fan. Other equipment includes a color TV monitor, the
VCR used to access and display targets, and three electrically iso-
lated audiocassette recorders. One audiocassette recorder presents
audio stimuli (prerecorded relaxation exercises, session instructions,
and white noise). Another plays background music during the ex-
perimental setup. The third records R's ganzfeld mentation and
:
Psi Communication in the Ganzfeld
105
Industrial Acoustics
Corp. 1205A Sound
Isolation Room
Double wall with 4"
Sonex Acoustical
Padding and acousti-
cal door
SENDER
RECEIVER
SCALE
E's equipment
console
EXPERIMENTER
S ft
Figure 1. Floor plan of experimental suite.
judging period associations. There is two-way intercom communio
cation between E and R. One-way audio communication from R to
Se allows Se to listen to R's ganzfeld mentation.
Receiver Preparation
R sits in a comfortable reclining chair in the IAC room. Se keepe
R company while E prepares R for visual and auditory ganzfeld
stimulation. Translucent hemispheres are taped over R's eyes with
Micropore@ tape. Headphones are placed over R's ears. A clip-ore
microphone is fastened to R's collar. A 600-watt red-filtered flood&
light, located approximately 6 ft in front of R's face, is adjusted ing
intensity until R reports a comfortable, shadow-free, homogeneous
visual field. White noise level is similarly adjusted; R is informed
that the white noise should be as loud as possible without being an-
noying or uncomfortable. The ganzfeld light and white noise inten-
sity are adjusted from E's console after R and Se are sequestered in"
their respective rooms.
Sender Preparation
Se sits in a comfortable reclining chair in the sender's room. Se
faces a color, TV monitor, wearing headphones. During the session,
Se can hear R's mentation report through one headphone; if dy-
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Psi Communication in the Ganzfeld
107
namic targets are used, Se hears the target audio channel through
the other headphone.
Series Manager Setup Procedures
E accesses the autoganzfeld computer program through the Se-
ries Manager software. Series Manager is a password-protected, menu-
driven control program. It provides the only means through which
an experimenter may specify parameters for the series design, reg-
ister new participants in the series, set up a session, and run a ses-
sion. The Series Manager menu is accessed through entry of a private
(and nonechoing) password.
·Series design. A valid series design must exist before sessions can
be run in an experimental series. This is done through the Series
Manager "design" module. The design module prompts E to specify
the type of series (pilot, screening, or formal), the number of
participants, the maximum number of trials per participant, the
total number of trials per series, and the series name. There is no
provision for changing the series design once it is accepted by E.
Design parameters are saved in a disk file; they are passed to the
experimental program at the beginning of the session.
Participant registration. When R is new to a series, E accesses
"Participant Registration" from the Series Manager menu before the
session. E is prompted to enter R's name and identification number.
The module verifies that the maximum number of participants
specified in the design is not exceeded. (An error message appears
if an attempt is made to register more participants than are speci-
fied in the design; then, control is returned to the Series Manager
menu.)
Session setup. E then selects "Session Setup" from the Series Man-
ager menu. E is prompted to enter R's name and the program ver-
ifies that R has not already completed the maximum number of
trials specified in the design module. (An error message appears if
a participant has completed the number of sessions allowed for the
series or has not been properly registered; control is then returned
to the Series Manager menu.) E enters Se's name and the sender
type: lab, lab friend, or friend. Lab senders are PRL staff members
whose acquaintance with the participant is limited to the experi-
ment. Lab friend refers to PRI, staff senders who have some social
acquaintance with R outside the laboratory. Friend senders are friends
or family members of the participant. Finally, E enters the ganzfeld
light and noise intensity levels and his or her initials. E then leaves
the monitoring room while another PRL staff person supervises tar-
get selection.
Targets
The system uses short video segments (dynamic targets) and still
pictures (static targets) as targets. Dynamic targets include excerpts
from motion pictures, documentaries, and cartoons. Static targets
include art prints, photographs, and magazine advertisements.
There are 160 targets, arranged in judging sets of four dynamic
or four static targets. The sets were constructed to minimize simi-
larities among targets within a set. The targets are recorded on four
one-half-inch VHS format videocassettes; cach videocassette con-
tains 10 target sets (5 dynamic and 5 static). A signal recorded on
an audio track of each videocassette allows computer access of the
targets. Target display time-to Se during each sending period and
to R during the judging period-is approximately one minute;
blank space added to briefer targets insures that the VCR remains
in play mode for the same length of time for all targets.
Preview packs. The video display format of the autoganzfeld tar-
gets does not permit simultaneous viewing of the entire target set
during the judging procedure as is done in many nonautomated
ganzfeld studies. Each target set is therefore accompanied by a pre-
view pack containing brief excerpts of all four targets in the set; this
gives R a general impression of the range of target possibilities. R
views the preview pack at the beginning of the judging procedure;
it runs approximately 30 sec.
Target Selection
The target selector (TS) is a PRL staff member who has no con-
tact with either E or R until after the blind-judging procedure. TS
is needed to load the videocassette containing the target into the
VCR. TS is informed which of the four videocassettes contains the
target, but remains blind to the target's identity. If Se is a staff
member, Se serves this role; otherwise, a staff member not involved
in the session serves as TS. (In the latter case, Se and R are seques-
tered in their respective rooms before TS enters the monitoring
room.)
The Series Manager program prompts TS to press a key on the
computer keyboard. A program call to the hardware RNG obtains
the target value (a number between 1 and 160) and stores it in, com-
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puter memory.2 The program determines the target set and video-
cassette number from the target value. The videocassette number is
displayed on the monitor, and TS is prompted to insert it into the
VCR. The program verifies that the correct videocassette has been
inserted and clears the monitor screen; if the videocassette is not
correct, an error message prompts TS to insert the correct video-
cassette.
TS places a cardboard cover over the VCR's front panel to con-
ceal the digital counters and VU meters. Finally, TS leaves the mon-
itoring room with the three remaining videocassettes, knocking
three times on the monitoring room door as a signal for E to return.
Relaxation Exercises and Ganzfeld Instructions
R and Se undergo a 14-min prerecorded relaxation exercise be-
fore the mentation/sending period. This provides a unique shared
experience for R and Se before the ESP task. The relaxation exer-
cise includes progressive relaxation exercises and autogenic phrases
(Jacobson, 1929; Shultz, 1950). Ganzfeld instructions are recorded
after the relaxation exercise. The instructions and relaxation exer-
cise are delivered in a slow, soothing but confident manner with
ocean sounds in the background. The style of presentation is similar
to a hypnotic induction procedure. The ganzfeld instructions to R,
which are also heard by Se, are as follows:
During this experiment we want you to think out loud. Report all of the
images, thoughts, and feelings that pass through your mind. Do not
cling to any of them. Just observe them as they go by. At some point
during the session, we will send you the target information. Do not try
to anticipate or conjure up this information. Just give yourself the sug-
gestion, right now-in the form of making a wish-that the information
will appear in consciousness at the appropriate time. Keep your eyes
open as much as possible during the session and allow your conscious-
ness to flow through the sound you will hear through the headphones.
One of us will be monitoring you in the other room. Now get as com-
fortable as possible, release all conscious hold of your body, and allow
it to relax completely. As soon as you begin observing your mental proc-
esses, start thinking out loud. Continue to share your thoughts, images,
and feelings with us throughout the session.
2 An exception occurs in the two target comparison series (Series 301 and 302).
See pp. 112-113.
Psi Communication in the Ganzfeld
109
Mentation/Sending Procedures
Receiver mentation report. After the relaxation exercise and in-
structions, R listens to the white noise through headphones for 30
minutes. R reports whatever thoughts, images, and feelings occur in.
the ganzfeld. The mentation report is monitored by E and Se from"
their respective rooms. The mentation report is tape recorded, and
E takes detailed notes for review from R prior to judging.
Target presentation and sender procedures. A Cavri Video Interface -
automates computer access and control of targets from a JVC BR-Q
6400U VCR. An electronic video switcher selectively routes the
video output (VCR or computer text mode) to three color TV mon-
itors, one each for E, R, and Se. E's and R's monitors remain in
computer text mode until the judging period. During each of the
six sending periods, Se's I'V monitor is switched from computer
text to VCR mode.
At the beginning of each sending period, Se's monitor displays
the prompt, "Silently communicate the contents and meaning of the
target to [R's first name]." Se views the target and attempts to com-
municate its contents to R. Se mentally reinforces R for- target-
related associations and mentally discourages R when the mentation 5
is unrelated to the target.
Judging Procedure
After the mentation period, E turns off the ganzfeld light and
reads back R's mentation from the session notes. R remains in ganz-
feld during the mentation review to minimize any abrupt shift in
state. E's and R's TV monitors are switched into VCR mode by the
computer, which also prompts Se to "Silently direct [R's first name]
to select the target that you saw." Se's TV monitor remains blank
(computer mode) during this period.
R removes the eye covers and views the preview pack. From
their respective rooms, R and E then view the four potential targets
(the actual target and three decoys), which are presented in one of
four random sequences. R, viewing each candidate, associates to the
item as though it were the actual target, describing perceived simi-
larities between the item and the ganzfeld mentation. While R as-
sociates to each candidate, E points out potential correspondences
that R may have overlooked.3 R views any of the target candidates
as often as desired before proceeding to the judging task.
3 This applies to Pilot Series 3, Novice Series 103-105, and to Experienced Series
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A 40-point rating scale then appears on R's TV monitor. The
scale is labelled 0% on the left and 100% on the right. Using a com-
puter-game paddle to move a pointer horizontally across the rating
scale, R indicates the degree of similarity between his ganzfeld men-
tation and each potential target. E and Se view R's ratings on their
monitors. The program checks for ties, and, if they occur, R re-rates
the four candidates to obtain unique ratings for each. The program
then converts R's ratings into ranks. A rank of 1 is assigned to the
candidate R believes has the strongest similarity to his ganzfeld men-
tation; a rank of 4 is given to the candidate R believes is least like
his ganzfeld experience.
Feedback and Post-Session Procedures
After R finishes judging, Se leaves the sender's room and enters
R's room with E. Se reveals the actual target, which the computer
automatically displays on R's TV monitor. The session data are writ-
ten to a floppy disk file.
Following feedback, E is prompted to backup the series data
disk. The target videocassette is then automatically wound to a po-
sition near the center of the videocassette (frame 50,000). E selects
"Analysis" from the Series Manager menu. and obtains a hardcopy
printout of the session data file. The printout includes: the file
name, R's name and ID number, series type, session number, Se's ;
name, E's initials, date and start time, target number, target position
in the set, R's target ranking, the standardized target rating (z
score), target judging sequence, target name, target type and set
number, sender type, light and white noise levels, finish time, and
optional experimenter's comments. The printout is attached to E's
notes on R's mentation and placed in a ring binder containing all
such information for the series. The audio tape of the session is sim-
ilarly filed.
Experimenters
Eight Es contributed to the autoganzfeld database. Honorton,
one of the originators of the psi ganzfeld technique, has conducted
psi ganzfeld experiments over a 16-year period. Derr and Varvoglis
201 and 302. It does not apply to the carlier series (Pilot Series 1-2; Novice Series
101-102; or Experienced Series 301). This practice was initiated because participants
frequently failed to identify obvious correspondences between their mentation and
target elements.
Psi Communication in the Ganzfeld
111
worked with Honorton at Maimonides Medical Center and were
trained by him. Berger is primarily responsible for the technical im-
plementation of the autoganzfeld system. He trained Honorton,
Derr, Varvoglis, and Schechter in its use. Honorton trained Quant,
Ferrari, and Schlitz in the use of the autoganzfeld system.4
Experimental Series
Altogether, 241 participants contributed 355 sessions in 11 se
ries. To fully address the issue of selective reporting, we includ
every session completed from the inauguration of the experiment
in February, 1983, to September, 1989, when the PRL facility w@s
closed. Thus, this database has no "file-drawer" problem (Rosenthal
1984).
The studies include three pilot series and eight formal serie
Five of the formal series were single-session studies with novice pa?
ticipants. The remaining three formal series involved experience
participants.
Pilot Series
Series 1. This initial pilot series was conducted during the dev
opment and testing of the autoganzfeld system. It served to test sy
tem operation, to detect and correct programming errors, and
fine-tune session timing functions. Nineteen subjects contributed
sessions as Rs. Seven, including PRL staff members, had prior
perience as Rs in nonautomated ganzfeld studies at Maimoni
Medical Center. The remaining 12 Rs were novices with no preor
ganzfeld experience. Series sample size was not specified in advance;
the series continued until we were satisfied that the system was
erating reliably.
Series 2. This pilot series was designed by Berger in an attergot
to avert potential displacement effects and subject judging problems
by having E rather than R serve as judge. R received feedback Bly
to the actual target. Four participants contributed to this series.
Nine of the planned 50 sessions were completed before Berger's de-
parture from PRL when this series was discontinued.
' Berger, Schechter, and Varvoglis have doctorate degrees in psychology. Quant
holds a masters degree in counselling psychology, and Ferrari has a bachelors degree
in psychology. Schlitz has conducted independent ganzfeld and remote-viewing re-
search in other laboratories and has a masters degree in anthropology.
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A 40-point rating scale then appears on R's TV monitor. The
scale is labelled 0% on the left and 100% on the right. Using a com-
puter-game paddle to move a pointer horizontally across the rating
scale, R indicates the degree of similarity between his ganzfeld men-
tation and each potential target. E and Se view R's ratings on their
monitors. The program checks for ties, and, if they occur, R re-rates
the four candidates to obtain unique ratings for each. The program
then converts R's ratings into ranks. A rank of 1 is assigned to the
candidate R believes has the strongest similarity to his ganzfeld men-
tation; a rank of 4 is given to the candidate R believes is least like
his ganzfeld experience.
Feedback and Post-Session Procedures
After R finishes judging, Se leaves the sender's room and enters
R's room with E. Se reveals the actual target, which the computer
automatically displays on R's TV monitor. The session data are writ-
ten to a floppy disk file.
Following feedback, E is prompted to backup the series data
disk. The target videocassette is then automatically wound to a po-
sition near the center of the videocassette (frame 50,000). E selects
"Analysis" from the Series Manager menu and obtains a hardcopy
printout of the session data file. The printout includes: the file
name, R's name and ID number, series type, session number, Se's
name, E's initials, date and start time, target number, target position
in the set, R's target ranking, the standardized target rating (z
score), target judging sequence, target name, target type and set
number, sender type, light and white noise levels, finish time, and
optional experimenter's comments. The printout is attached to E's
notes on R's mentation and placed in a ring binder containing all
such information for the series. The audio tape of the session is sim-
ilarly filed.
Experimenters
Eight Es contributed to the autoganzfeld database. Honorton,
one of the originators of the psi ganzfeld technique, has conducted
psi ganzfeld experiments over a 16-year period. Derr and Varvoglis
201 and 302. It does not apply to the earlier series (Pilot Series 1-2; Novice Series
101-102; or Experienced Series 301). This practice was initiated because participants
frequently failed to identify obvious correspondences between their mentation and
target elements.
Psi Communication in the Ganzfeld
worked with Honorton at Maimonides Medical Center and were
trained by him. Berger is primarily responsible for the technical im-
plementation of the autoganzfeld system. He trained Honorton,
Derr, Varvoglis, and Schechter in its use. Honorton trained Quant,
Ferrari, and Schlitz in the use of the autoganzfeld system.4
Experimental Series
Altogether, 241 participants contributed 355 sessions in 11 se
ries. To fully address the issue of selective reporting, we include
every session completed from the inauguration of the experiments
in February, 1983, to September, 1989, when the PRL facility wa?
closed. Thus, this database has no "file-drawer" problem (Rosenthat
1984).
The studies include three pilot series and eight formal serie
Five of the formal series were single-session studies with novice paf
ticipants. The remaining three formal series involved experienced
participants.
Pilot Series
Series 1. This initial pilot series was conducted during the dev
opment and testing of the autoganzfeld system. It served to test sý
tem operation, to detect and correct programming errors, and
fine-tune session timing functions. Nineteen subjects contributed
sessions as Rs. Seven, including PRL staff members, had prior
perience as Rs in nonautomated ganzfeld studies at Maimonicos
Medical Center. The remaining 12 Rs were novices with no prior
ganzfeld experience. Series sample size was not specified in advance;
the series continued until we were satisfied that the system was
erating reliably.
Series 2. This pilot series was designed by Berger in an attenot
to avert potential displacement effects and subject judging problems
by having E rather than R serve as judge. R received feedback ogly
to the actual target. Four participants contributed to this series.
Nine of the planned 50 sessions were completed before Berger's de-
parture from PRL when this series was discontinued.
111
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4 Berger, Schechter, and Varvoglis have doctorate degrees in psychology. Quant
holds a masters degree in counselling psychology, and Ferrari has a bachelors degree
in psychology. Schlitz has conducted independent ganzfeld and remote-viewing re-
search in other laboratories and has a masters degree in anthropology.
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*
Series 3. This pilot series was a practice series for participants
who completed the allotted number of sessions in ongoing formal
series but who wanted additional ganzfeld experience. This series
also includes several demonstration sessions when TV film crews
were present and provided receiver experience for new PRL staff.
The sample size was not preset.
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Novice ("First-Timers") Series
The identification of characteristics associated with successful in-
itial performance was a major goal of the PRL ganzfeld project
(Honorton & Schechter, 1987). Except for Series 105, each novice
series includes 50 ganzfeld novices, that is, participants with no
prior ganzfeld experience. Each novice contributed a single ganz-
feld session. Most novices had not participated in any psi experiment
prior to the novice series.
Series 101. This is the first novice series.
Series 102. Beginning with this series, R was prompted after the
mentation period to estimate the number of minutes since the end
of the relaxation/instructions tape.
Series 103. Starting with this series, Rs were given the option of
having no sender (i.e., "clairvoyance" condition). Only four partici-
pants opted to have no sender.
Series 104. A visiting scientist (Marilyn Schlitz) served as E in
seven sessions and as Se in six sessions with subjects from The Juil-
liard School in New York.
Series 105. This series was started to accommodate the overflow
of Juilliard students from Series 104. The sample size was set to 25.
Six sessions were completed at the time the PRL program was sus-
pended. (There were 20 Juilliard students altogether. Sixteen were
in Series 104 and four were in Series 105.)
Experienced Subjects Series
Series 201. This series involved especially promising subjects.
The number of trials was set to 20. Seven sessions by three Rs were
completed at the time the PRL program was suspended.
Series 301. This series compared dynamic and static targets.
Sample size was set to 50 sessions. Twenty-five experienced subjects
each contributed two sessions. The autoganzfeld program was mod-
ified for this series so that each R would have one session with dy-
113
namic targets and one session with static targets. Subjects were in-
formed of this only after completing both sessions.
Series 302. This series used a single dynamic target set (Set 20).
In earlier series, Target 77 ("Tidal Wave Engulfing Ancient City")
had an especially strong success rate while Target 79 ("High-Speed
Sex Trio") had never been correctly identified. We made two pro-
gram modifications for this series. The target selection ("Randore-
ize") routine was modified to select only targets in Set 20, and the
VCR tape-centering routine was modified to wind the videotape
a randomly selected position between frame numbers 85,000 ar ?!
95,000. The second modification insured that E could not be cuecb
perhaps unconsciously, by the time required to wind the tape from
its initial position to the target location.
The study involved experienced Rs who had no prior experience
with Set 20. Each R contributed one session. Participants were une
aware of the purpose of the study or that it was limited to one targe
set. The design called for the series to continue until 15 session
were completed with each of the two targets of interest. Twenty-five
sessions were completed when the PRL program was suspended.
Statistical Analysis
Except for two pilot series, series sample sizes were specified in
advance. Our primary hypothesis was that the observed success
rate- the proportion of correctly identified targets-would reliably
exceed the null hypothesis expectation of .25. To test this hypotha
esis, we calculated the exact binomial probability for the observed
number of direct hits (ranks of 1) with p = . 25 and q = . 75. Of
the basis of the overwhelmingly positive outcomes of earlier studies".
we preset alpha to .05, one-tailed.
We also tested two secondary hypotheses, based on patterns of
success in earlier psi ganzfeld research. These are: (1) that dynamic
targets are significantly superior to static targets, and (2) that perd
formance is significantly enhanced when the sender is a friend of RI
compared to when R and Se are not acquainted. We. initially
planned to test these hypotheses by chi-square tests, a trial-based
analysis. However, a consultant (Dr. Robert Rosenthal) suggested
that a t test using the series as the unit would be a more powerful
test of these hypotheses, and we have followed his recommendation.
The remaining analyses are exploratory.5
5 The statistical analyses in this report were performed using SYSTAT (Wilkin-
:
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TABLE 1
OUTCOME BY SERIES
Series
Series
type
N
subjects
N
trials
N
%
(h)
Z
1
Pilot
19
22
8
36
.25
.99
2
Pilot
4
9
3
33
.18
.25
3
Pilot
25
36
10
28
.07
101
Novice
50
50
12
24
-. 02
-. 30
102
Novice
50
50
18
36
.24
1.60
103
Novice
50
50
15
30
.11
.67
104
Novice
50
50
18
36
.24
1.60
105
Novice
6
6
4
67
.87
1.78
@201
.
Experienced
3
7
3
43
.38
.69
D301
Experienced
25
50
15
30
.11
.67
₩302
Experienced
25
25
16
64
.81
3.93
Overall
241
355
122
34
.20
3.89
WNote. The z scores are based on the exact binomial probability with p = . 25
Pand q = . 75.
RESULTS
DOverall Success Rate
Ganzfeld hit rate. There were 241 participants, who contributed
#355 autoganzfeld sessions. The 122 direct hits (34.4%) yield an exact
binomial p of .00005 (z = 3.89). The effect size, Cohen's h (Cohen,
(1977), is .20. The 95% confidence interval (CI) is a hit rate from
230% to 39%. Because this level of accuracy would occur about one
Stime in 20,000 by chance, we reject the null hypothesis. (See Table
51.)
Success rate by series. Of the 11 series, 10 yield positive outcomes.
The mean series effect size is .29, SD = . 29, t (10) = 3.32.
Homogeneity of effect sizes. Traditionally, psi investigators have
been preoccupied by whether there is a significant nonzero effect.
An equally important issue, however, is the size of the effect. There
is a growing tendency among behavioral scientists to define replic-
ability in terms of the homogeneity of effect sizes (Hedges, 1987;
son, 1988). When t tests are reported on samples with unequal variances, they are
calculated using the separate variances within groups for the error and degrees of
freedom following Brownlee (1965). Combined zs are based on Stouffer's method
(Rosenthal, 1984). Unless otherwise specified, p levels are one-tailed.
Psi Communication in the Ganzfeld
115
TABLE 2
OUTCOME BY EXPERIMENTER
Hits
Experimenter
N
trials
N
%
Effect
size (h)
Quant
106
38
36
.24
Honorton
72
27
38
.29
Berger
53
18
34
.20
Derr
45
12
27
.05
Varvoglis
43
11
26
.03
Schechter
14
5
36
.23
Ferrari
15
9
60
.72
Schlitz
7
2
29
.08
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Rosenthal, 1986; Utts, 1986). Two or more studies are replicates of@
one another if their effect sizes are homogeneous. We assess thed
homogeneity of effect sizes across the 11 series by performing a chi-
square homogeneity test comparing the effect size for each series
with the weighted mean effect size (Hedges, 1981; Rosenthal, 1984).
The formula is:
k
×2(k - 1) = EN(h; - h)2,
i = 1
where k is the number of studies, N; is the sample size of the ithe
study, and the weighted mean effect size is:
.
-
2
i = 1
The test shows that the series effect sizes are not significantly non
homogeneous: x2 = 16.25, 10 df, p = . 093.
Homogeneity of Outcome by Experimenter
Eight Es contributed to the autoganzfeld database. (See Table 2.)
All eight experimenters have positive effect sizes. A chi-square ho-
mogeneity test, using the mean effect sizes for each E weighted by
sample size, indicates that the results are homogeneous across ex-
perimenters: x2 = 7.13, 7 df, p = . 415.
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Effect size

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TABLE. 3
GANZFELD SUCCESS IN RELATION TO NUMBER OF SESSIONS
No. of sessions as receiver
-
1
2
3
4 +
N subjects
183
23
24
11
N trials
183
72
5.1
Hits
53
19
31
19
% Hits
29
41
43
35
Effect size (h)
.09
.34
.38
.22
Subject-Based Analysis
Seventy-six percent of the participants (N = 183) contributed a
single session as R. Fifty-eight Rs contributed multiple sessions. Par-
ticipants with multiple sessions either had direct hits or strongly
suggestive target mentation correspondences in their first session.
(See Table 3.)
Success rate by subjects. To test the consistency of ganzfeld perfor-
mance across participants, we use the standardized ratings of the
target and decoys (Stanford's z scores; Stanford & Sargent, 1983) as
the dependent variable. Stanford zs are averaged for participants
with multiple sessions. Direct hits and Stanford zs are highly corre-
lated. In this database, N (353) is .776. The mean Stanford z for the
241 participants is .21 (SD = 1.04), and t (240) = 3.22 (p = . 00073).
The 95% CI is a Stanford z from .08 to .35. The effect size (Cohen's
d; Cohen, 1977) is .21. (The effect size for subjects is nearly identical
to the trial-based effect size, h = . 20.) Thus, there is a general ten-
dency for participants to give higher ratings to the actual target
than to the decoys, and the significance of these experiments is not
attributable to exceptional performance by a few outstanding sub-
jects.
Dynamic Versus Static Targets
The success rate for dynamic targets is highly significant. There
are 190 dynamic target sessions and 77 direct hits (40%, h = . 32;
exact binomial p = 1.9 × 10-6, z = 4.62). The hit rate for static
targets is not significant (165 trials, 45 hits, 27%, h = . 05, p = . 276,
z = . 59). Using the series effect size as the outcome variable and
target type as the predictor variable, the point-biserial correlation
(rp) between ganzfeld performance and target type is .663, t (17) =
Psi Communication in the Ganzfeld
117
TABLE 4
SENDER/RECEIVER PAIRING
,
Sender as:
Lab
Lab
friend
Friend
W trials
140
66
145
N hits
46
24
52
% Hits
33
36
36
Effect size (h)
.18
.24
.24
2.01
1.93
2.83
Na
.023
.026
.0023
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3.65, p = . 002.6 The 95% CI for dynamic targets is a hit rate from
34% to 47%. The CI for static targets is from 21% to 34%. Thus
our hypothesis concerning the superiority of dynamic targets is
strongly supported.
Sender/Receiver Pairing
Receivers are more successful with friends than with laboratory-
: senders, although the difference is not statistically significant. The
number of sessions in this analysis is 351 because four subjects
opted to have no sender. The best performance occurs with friend
senders. Sessions with laboratory senders, although significant, have
the lowest success rate. (See Table 4.)
Using series effect sizes as the unit of analysis and sender type
as the predictor variable (combining lab friend and friends), rp is
363, 1 (17) = 1.61, p = 0635.7 The 95% CI for sessions with
friends is a hit rate from 33.3% to 47%. For lab senders, the CI is
from 18.3% to 41.8%. Thus, although the effect of sender type is
not statistically significant, there is a trend toward better results with
friends.
" Separate effect sizes were obtained for the dynamic and static target sessions of
each series. Since Series 302 used dynamic targets only, the analysis is based on 11
dynamic target effect sizes and 8 static target effect sizes; two static target series (105
and 201) had extremely small sample sizes (2 and 3 sessions, respectively). A similar
procedure is used in the analyses of sender/receiver pairing and experienced versus
novice subjects.
7 Three series involving laboratory senders were eliminated from this analysis be-
cause of extremely small sample sizes. These include Series 2 (n = 2), Series 105 (n
= 2), and Series 201 (n = 1). Thus, the point biserial correlation is based on 11
series with friends and 8 series with laboratory senders.
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Ganzfeld Experience
Two hundred and eighteen participants had their first experi-
ence as ganzfeld receivers in the autoganzfeld series. (This includes
the 5 Novice Series 101-105 and 12 novices in Series 1.) For all but
24 (11%), their initial autoganzfeld session provided their first ex-
perience as participant in any parapsychological research. Of the
218 novices, 71 (32.5%, h = . 17) correctly identified their target (ex-
act binomial p = . 0073, z = 2.44).
Participants with some ganzfeld experience contributed 137
trials and 51 hits (37%, h = . 26, p = . 001, z = 3.09). When series
effect sizes are used as the unit of analysis and prior ganzfeld cx-
perience is used as the predictor variable, r, is .078, { (10) = 0.25,
p = . 41. The 95% CI for novices is a hit rate from 25.5% to 49.5%.
The CI for experienced participants is from 29% to 50%.
Participation by PRL Laboratory Staff
For completeness, we report the contribution of laboratory staff
as subjects in this database. PRL staff members contributed 12 ses-
sions as R. These sessions yield 3 hits (exact binomial p = . 50; h =
2 .00).
White Noise and Ganzfeld Illumination Levels
The mean white noise level (in arbitrary units of 0-7.5) is 2.97
(SD = 1.77). As measured from the headphones, the mean noise
level is approximately 68 dB. The mean light intensity (arbitrary
units of 0-100) is 73.8 (SD = 26.1). Preferred noise and light in-
tensity levels are highly correlated: r = . 569, t (353) = 12.99.
Neither noise nor light intensity is significantly related to ganz-
feld performance. The point-biserial correlation between hits and
noise level is - . 026, t (353) = - 0.48, p = . 631, two tailed. For light
intensity, rp, is -. 040, { (353) = - 0.76, p = . 449, two tailed.
RANDOMNESS TESTS
The adequacy of randomization was a major source of disagree-
ment in two meta-analytic reviews of earlier psi ganzfeld research
(Honorton, 1985; Hyman, 1985). In this section we document the
Psi Communication in the Ganzfeld
119
adequacy of our randomization procedure according to guidelines
agreed on by Hyman and Honorton (1986).
Global Tests of Random Number Generator
Full-range frequency analysis. As described earlier, autoganzfeld
targets are selected through a program call to the RNG for values
within the target range (1-160). The number of experimental ses-
sions (N = 355) is too small to assess the RNG output distribution
for the full range, so we performed a large-scale control series to
test the distribution of values. Twelve control samples were col-
lected. These included five samples with 156,000 trials, six samples
with 1,560 trials, and one sample of 1,560,000 trials. The 12 result-
ing chi-square values were compared to a chi-square distribution
with 155 df, using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) one-sample test.
The KS test yields a two-tailed p = . 577, indicating that the RNG
used in these experiments provides a uniform distribution of values
throughout the full target range.8
Test of frequency distribution for Set 20. We used a single target set
(Set 20) in Series 302. We repeated the frequency analysis in a
40,000-trial control sample, restricting target selection to the four
target values within Set 20 (Targets 77-80). A chi-square test of the
distribution of targets within Set 20 shows that the RNG produces
a uniform distribution of the target values within the set: x2 = 3.19, 5
3 df, p = . 363.
Tests of the Experimental RNG Usage
Each autoganzfeld session required two RNG calls. An RNG call
at the beginning of the session determined the target; another,
made before the judging procedure, determined the order in which
the target and decoys were presented for judging.
Distribution of targets in the experiment. A chi-square test of the dis-
tribution of values within the target sets shows that the targets were
selected uniformly from among the four possibilities within each set;
x2 with 3 df is 0.86, p = . 835.
Distribution of judging order. A chi-square test of the judging order
indicates that the targets were uniformly distributed among the four
possible judging sequences: the x2 with 3 df is 1.85, p = . 604.
" One of the preview pack elements for Set 6, containing Targets 21-24, was
damaged. This required filtering the RNG calls in the experiment and control tests
to bypass the damaged portion of the videotape, leaving the targets in Pool 6 unused.
Thus, for the full-range analyses reported here, there are 155 df rather than 159.
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Summary
The randomness tests demonstrate that the RNG used for target
selection in these experiments provides an adequate source of ran-
dom numbers and was functioning properly during the experi-
ments.
EXAMPLES OF TARGET-MENTATION CORRESPONDENCES
In this section, we present some examples of correspondences
between targets and ganzfeld mentation. Although conclusions can-
not be drawn from qualitative data, this material should not be ig-
nored. It constitutes the raw data on which the objective statistical
bevidence is based, and may provide important insights concerning
the underlying process. These examples are excerpts from sessions
of subjects' ganzfeld mentation reports, identified by them during
The blind judging procedure as providing their basis for rating the
Zarget.
Target 90, Static: Dali's "Christ Crucified."
Series 1. Participant ID: 77. Rank = 1. z score = 1.67.
I think of guides, like spirit guides, leading me and I come into like
a court with a king. It's quiet .... It's like heaven. The king is something
like Jesus. Woman. Now I'm just sort of summersaulting through
heaven .... Brooding .... Aztecs, the Sun God .... High priest ....
Fear .... Graves. Woman. Prayer .... Funeral .... Dark. Death ....
Souls .... Ten Commandments. Moses
arget 77, Dynamic: Tidal wave engulfing ancient city. From "The Clash
The Titans," a film based on Greek mythology. A huge tidal wave crashes
Bto the shore. The scene shifts to a center courtyard of an ancient Greek
gity; there is a statue in the center, and buildings with Greek columns around
Be periphery. People are running to escape consumption by the tidal wave.
Water rushes through the buildings, destroying the columns and the statue;
people scurry through a stone tunnel, just ahead of the engulfing water;
debris floats through the water.
Series: 1. Participant ID: 87. Rank = 1. z score = 1.42.
" ... The city of Bath comes to mind. The Romans. The reconstruction
of the baths through archaeology. The Parthenon. Also getting sort of
buildings like Stonehenge but sort of a cross between Stonehenge and
the Parthenon. The Byzantine Empire. The Gates of Thunder. The
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Psi Communication in the Ganzfeld
.
Holy See. Tables floating about. ... The number 7 very clearly. That just
popped out of nowhere. It reminds me a bit of one of the first Clash
albums, however. The Clash, "Two Sevens" I think it was called, I'm not
sure .... " [The target was number 77.]
Series 302. Participant ID: 267. Rank = 1. z score = 2.00.
... A big storm over New York City. I'm assuming it's New York City.
No, it's San Francisco .... A big storm and danger. It looks so beautiful
but I'm getting the sense of danger from it .... It's a storm. An earth-
quake .... "
Target 63, Dynamic: Horses. From the film, "The Lathe of Heaven." An
overhead view of five horses galloping in a snow storm. The camera zooms
in on the horses as they gallop through the snow. The scene shifts to a close-
up of a single horse trotting in a grassy meadow, first at normal speed, then
in slow-motion. The scene shifts again; the same horse trotting slowly
through empty city streets.
Series: 101. Participant ID: 92. Rank = 1. z score = 1.25.
" ... I keep going to the mountains .... It's snowing .... Moving again,
this time to the left, spinning to the left .... Spinning. Like on a carousel,
horses. Horses on a carousel, a circus .... "
Target 46, Dynamic: Collapsing Bridge. Newsreel footage of the collapse of
a bridge the 1940s. The bridge is swaying back and forth and up and down.
Light posts are swaying. The bridge collapses from the center into the water.
Series: 101. Participant ID: 135. Rank = 1. z score = 1.94.
" ... Something, some vertical object bending or swaying, almost some-
thing swaying in the wind. .. . Some thin, vertical object, bending to the
left .... Some kind of ladder-like structure but it seems to be almost
blowing in the wind. Almost like a ladder-like bridge over some kind of
chasm that's waving in the wind. This is not vertical this is horizon-
tal .... A bridge, a drawbridge over something. It's like one of those old
English type bridges that opens up from either side. The middle part
comes up. I see it opening. It's opening. There was a flash of an old
English stone bridge but then back to this one that's opening. The
bridge is lifting, both sides now. Now both sides are straight up. Now
it's closing again. It's closing, it's coming down, it's closed. Arc, images
of arcs, arcs, bridges. Passageways, many arcs. Bridges with many'
arcs. ...
Target 137, Static: "Working on a Watermelon Farm." This painting shows
a black man with his back to the picture; his suspenders form a V-shape
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around his shoulders. A dog is in front of the man; there are watermelons
between the dog and the man. The man faces a dirt path with watermelon
patches on either side. On the left side, another man pushes a wheelbarrow
filled with huge watermelons.
Series: 101. Participant ID: 105. Rank = 2. z score = 0.98.
... a small lamb, very soft, outside. Small, playful. ... I see a 'V'
shape .... An apple .... I see a kitchen towel with a picture on it. Apple
seeds or a fruit cut in half showing the seeds. A tomato or an apple.
The fruit was red on the outside .... I thought of watermelon as in a
watermelon basket. Thinking of kids playing on a beach. Little kids
playing with balls that are bigger than they are and buckets that are
three-quarters their size .... I had a thought of going through a tunnel,
not the kind of tunnel you see on Earth but the type of tunnel described
when someone dies."
" Target 64, Dynamic: 1920s Car Sinking. From the film "Ghost Story." The
scene depicts the murder of a young blonde woman by three young men in
the 1920s. The men are all wearing suits; one of the men is wearing a
fedora hat that is turned up in the back. The men push an old car into a
Plake. The camera shifts between close-ups of their facial expressions, and the
car, as it slowly sinks into the water. The woman's face and hand appear in
. the car's large rectangular rear window; she silently screams out for help.
The car disappears beneath the water as the sequence ends.
Series: 102. Participant ID: 154. Rank = I. z score = 1.45.
" ... Girl with a haircut .... Blond hair .... A car .... The back of some-
one's head .... Someone running to the right .... Someone on the right
in a brown suit ... and a fedora hat turned up very much in the
back .... Fedora, trench coat, dark tie .... A tire of a car. The car's going
to the left. An old movie .... I'm picturing an Edward G. Robinson
movie .... Big roundish car like 1940's. Those scenes from the back win-
dow. Bumping once in a while up and down looking through the back
window you could see that it was probably a big screen in back of the
car and the car's standing still actually .... I think it's a movie I saw.
They're being shot at and shooting at the window and then the girl gets
shot .... Girl with the blonde haircut .... Someone walking in a suit,
brown suit .... It's the 1940's again, 30's maybe. Except it looks like it's
in color. Something red, blood ... blood on someone's lap .... A dead
person all of a sudden .... A big mouth opened. Yelling, but no
sound .... Two people running near a train .... Dressed in 1920 type
suits with balloony pants, like knickers .... A big, old-fashioned white car
with a flat top. 1920's, 30's ..
Target 107, Static: Stained-Glass Madonna with Child. This is a stained-
glass window depicting the Virgin Mary and Christ child.
Psi Communication in the Ganzfeld
123
Series: 102. Participant ID: 183. Rank = 2. z score = 0.61.
"Some kind of a house, structure .... Some kind of wall or building.
Something with the sky in the background. Thinking of a bell. A bell
structure. Something with a hole with the light coming through the
hole .... Like a stained glass window like you see in churches."
Target 19, Static: Flying Eagle. An eagle with outstretched wings is about
to land on a perch; its claws are extended. The eagle's head is white and its
wings and body are black.
Series: 104. Participant ID: 316. Rank = 1. z score = 2.00.
" ... A black bird. I see a dark shape of a black bird with a very pointed
beak with his wings down .... Almost needle-like beak .... Something
that would fly or is flying ... like a big parrot with long feathers on a
perch. Lots of feathers, tail feathers, long, long, long .... Flying, a big
huge, huge eagle. The wings of an eagle spread out .... The head of an
eagle. White head and dark feathers .... The bottom of a bird .... "
Target 144, Dynamic: Hell. From the film "Altered States." This sequence
depicts a psychedelic experience. Everything is tinted red. The rapidly shifting
scenes include: A man screaming; many people in the midst of fire and
smoke; a man screaming in an isolation tank; people in agony; a large sun
with a corona around it; a mass crucifixion; people jumping off a precipice,
in the midst of fire, smoke, and molten lava; spiraling crucifixes. There is a
close-up of a lizard's head, slowly opening its mouth, at the end of the se-
quence.
Series: 104. Participant ID: 321. Rank = 1. z score = 1.49.
"
. .. I just see a big 'X'. A big 'X' .... I see a tunnel in front of me. It's
like a tunnel of smog or a tunnel of smoke. I'm going down it .... I'm
going down it at a pretty fast speed .... I still see the color red, red, red,
red, red, red, red, red .... Ah, suddenly the sun .... The kind of cartoon
sun you see when you can see each pointy spike around the sphere. .. . I
stepped on a piece of glass and there's a bit of blood coming out of my
foot .... A lizard, with a big, big, big head .... "
Target 148, Static. Three Unusual Planes. Three small aircraft flying in
formation. The planes are white and have swept-back wings; their landing-
gear is extended. A winding road is visible below.
Series: 104. Participant ID: 322. Rank = 2. z score = 0.39.
" .. . A jet plane. ... A 747 on the way to Greece. Blue skies. Sounds like
it's going higher. ... I think I'm back on the plane again. I never used
to be afraid of flying until recently .... They need better insulated jets,
soundproof like these rooms. They could use these comfortable seats,
too. And the leg room. The service isn't bad either. . .. Still can't get the
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feeling of being in an airplane out of my mind. Flying over Greenland
and Iceland when I went to England .... Feels like we're going higher
and higher .... Descending. It seems we're descending .... Big airplanes
flying over with people like me staring down .... Flying around in a
piece of tin .... Feel like I'm getting a G-force. Maybe I am taking off.
Sure feels like it. Feels like we're going straight up .... I always feel like
when I'm on the plane going home, I just hope that plane makes it past
the Rocky Mountains.
Target 10, Static: Santa and Coke. This is a Coca-Cola Christmas ad from
the 1950s, showing Santa Claus holding a Coke bottle in his left hand; three
buttons are visible on Santa's suit. Behind Santa and to his left, is a large
bottle cap with the Coca-Cola logo leaning against an ornamented Christmas
tree:
Series: 104. Participant ID: 332. Rank = 1. z score = 1.14.
" ... There's a man with a dark beard and he's got a sharp face ....
There's another man with a beard. Now there's green and white and
he's in bushes and he's sort of colonial. He looks like Robin Hood and
he's wearing a hat .... I can see him from behind. I can see his hat and
he has a sack over his shoulder .... Window ledge is looking down and
there's a billboard that says 'Coca-Cola' on it .... There's a snowman
again and it's got a carrot for a nose and three black buttons coming
down the front .... There's a white beard again. There's a man with a
white beard .... There's an old man with a beard .... "
Target 70, Dynamic: Dancing in NY City Streets. From the film "The Wiz."
The span of yellow-paved bridge over a body of water and automobile traffic
is visible in the opening scene; the New York City skyline is in the back-
ground. A hot-air balloon flies overhead. The scene shifts as Dorothy (Diana
Ross), her dog Toto, the Lion, Tin Man, and Scarecrow dance along the
bridge; one of the bridge's supporting arches is behind them. The Chrysler
Building is in the background. At the end of the sequence, the characters
dance in front of a painted backdrop of an old-fashioned building.
Series: 105. Participant ID: 336. Rank = 1. z score = 1.40.
"Big colorful hot air balloons .... White brick wall .... Ocean .... People
walking before my eyes. Several people .... A dog. Hot air balloon ....
a nightclub singer .... Back of a woman's head, short curly hair ....
Water .... Balloon, big balloon .... Yellow .... Very tall building. Look-
ing down at a city. Leaving a city, going up .... Faces. An arc ....
Water .... A woman's face .... Cars, freeway .... A rock-n-roll star
chanting .... Architecture. A jester's hat .... geometrical figures, designs.
... Yellow chocolate bar. Water. Going down into water, deep down ....
Man with long golden hair and sun glasses .... The Bay, San Francisco
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P'si Communication in the Ganzfeld
Bay. A lion .... Highways .... Lion, see a lion .... Tornado .... Bal-
loon .... Face mask .... City .... Leaning Tower of Pisa. ... Long hall-
way, doorway .... Long road. Long, long desert road .... "
Target 22, Dynamic: Spiders. From the documentary "Life on Earth." A
spider is weaving its web. The spider's long legs spring up and down re-
peatedly, weaving strands of the web. The body of the spider is constantly in
motion, and bounces up and down. A close-up shows one of the veins of the
web being stretched out by the spider. Various views of the web.
Series: 301. Participant ID: 146. Rank = 2. z score = 0.65.
" ... Now visual patterns more like a spider web and the color. And then
like the form of the veins of a windmill .... Something like a spider web
again. A spider web. A pattern that instead of a spider web it looks like
basket weaving. ... An image of the way some children were able to do
something like flying when I was a child though I never had one. It was
a-forgotten what it was called-a pogo stick or a jump stick, something
in which you jumped up and down and you could hop quite a distance
by doing so .... I have kinesthetic images all over as in vigorous motion
expressed in flying or jumping on this sort of spring stick that I men-
tioned .... Vigorous motion. It's as though I were trying to combine re-
laxation with participating in an image of something very vigorous ... . I
really feel carried away by these images of vigorous activity without
being able to localize this activity as to what it-is.
Target 108, Static: Two fire eaters. A young fire eater, in the foreground,
facing to the right of the picture, blows a huge flame out of his mouth. In
the background there is another fire eater. A group of people are watching
on the left side of the picture.
Series: 301. Participant ID: 146. Rank = 1. z score = 1.71.
"
. I keep having images of flames now and then .... The sound re-
minds me of flames too. ... I find flames again .... In these new images
the fire takes on a very menacing meaning .... Rather mountainous
sticking up of bare rocks just as though they had come from a recently
formed volcano. Volcanos of course get back to the fire, extreme heat.
I had an image of a volcano with molten lava inside the crater. Molten
lava running down the side of the volcano .... Cold. Written out there
behind the visual field and thinking how it contrasts with my images of
flames. Although my images of flames didn't actually include much real
feeling of heat. I didn't have any imagery of heat in connection with the
flames. Just abstract thought of flames .... Now I think of the water as .
a way of putting out flames. Suddenly, I was biting my lip. Biting my
lip as though lips had something to do with the imagery and I see lips
out in front of me .... And the lips I see are bright red, reminding me
of the flame imagery earlier. And then a bright heart such as Valentine's
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candy in the shape of a heart. The cinnamon flavored candies that I
remember as a child having at Valentine's. Red color .... This red as in
the cinnamon candy is a deep very intense red. And similarly for the
flames. And now I see the word 'red' .... "
Target 94, Dynamic: Hang Gliders. The sequence shows a skier on a V-
shaped hang glider. The skier soars high up above snow covered mountains
and a pine forest. At the end, the skier lands on a mountain slope and skis
away. The sequence is accompanied by Pachelbel's Canon.
Series: 301. Participant ID: 188. Rank = 1. z score = 1.26.
" ... Some kind of 'V' shape, like an open book .... I get some moun-
tain .... Some kind of bird with a long wing .... The shape of an upside
down 'V' .... Ski, something about skiing came to me .... Some kind of
a body like an oval shape of a body with wings on top of it in a 'V'
shape. Another 'V' like a wing shape .... Something with wings ....
Again the shape of an umbrella came into my mind. A butterfly
shape .... "
Target 80, Dynamic: Bugs Bunny in Space. In this cartoon, there is a close-
up of the lower part of a cigar-shaped rocketship and the supports holding
5 it up. The rocket assembly slides over to the launching pad, directly above
Bugs Bunny's underground patch. The scene shifts to the underground
patch, as Bugs Bunny climbs up the ladder leading out of his patch. Un-
knowingly, he climbs up through the interior of the rocketship. The rocket's
supports pull away and then it takes off into space. The rocket's nose cone
spins as Bugs Bunny appears through the top and he sees the Earth recede
" rapidly in the distance. As the sequence ends, Bugs Bunny is hit in the belly
by a comet.
Series: 302. Participant ID: 292. Rank = 1. z score = 1.48.
' ... Space craft .... The solar system. The underside of a helicopter or
a submarine or some kind of fish that you're seeing from under-
neath .... Sort of being underneath it. Sort of being underneath it .... A
very strange image like a cartoon character, animated character. With
his mouth open kind of .... Like a hypodermic needle or a candle or
this shaft like thing with the a pointed top again .... missiles
flying .... An aerial perspective .... I'm just kind of editing here I think.
I'm really hoping all this rocketship kind of imagery isn't because of the
noise. I feel like I'm in a rocketship or something .... That image of the
ship going into the belly of the mother ship ..
COMPARISON OF STUDY OUTCOMES WITH
GANZFELD META-ANALYSIS
In this section, we compare the automated ganzfeld study out-
comes with the results of carlier ganzfeld studies, summarized in'a
Psi Communication in the Ganzfeld
127
TABLE 5
COMPARISON OF OVERALL, PERFORMANCE IN AUTOMATED GANZFELD AND
META-ANALYSIS DATA SETS
Outcome
N
variable
Database
studies
Mean
SD
1
df
p
z scores
Meta-analysis
28
1.25
1.57
0.33
25
.748
Autoganzfeld
11
1.10
1.14
Effect sizes (h)
Meta-analysis
28
.28
.46
0.14
28
.892
Autoganzfeld
11
.29
.29
Note. The p values are two-tailed.
meta-analysis (Honorton, 1985). We compare the two databases on
four dimensions: (1) overall success rate, (2) dynamic versus static
targets, (3) sender/receiver pairing, and (4) novice versus experi-
enced subjects.
Overall Success Rate
To assess the consistency of results, we compare the ll auto-
ganzfeld series to the 28 studies in a meta-analysis of earlier ganz-
feld studies (Honorton, 1985, Table Al, p. 84), using direct hits as
the dependent variable. The outcomes of the two data sets are con-
sistent. Both display a predominance of positive outcomes: 23 of the
28 studies in the meta-analysis (82%) and 10 of the 11 autoganzfeld
series (91%) yield positive z scores. The mean autoganzfeld z scores
and effect sizes are very similar to those in the meta-analysis. (See
Table 5.)
Combined Estimates of Ganzfeld Success Rate
Because the z scores and effect sizes for the automated ganzfeld
are consistent with the original set of 28 studies in the meta-analysis,
a better estimate of their true population values may be obtained by
combining them. Positive outcomes were obtained in 33 of the 39
studies (85%); the 95% CI is from 69% to 99%. Table 6 shows a
stem-and-leaf frequency plot of the z scores (Tukey, 1977). Unlike
other methods of displaying frequency distributions, the stem-and-
leaf plot retains the numerical data precisely. (Turned on its side,
the stem-and-leaf plot becomes a conventional histogram.) Each
number includes a stem and one or more leaves. For example, the
stem 1 is followed by leaves of 6,6,6,7,7,7, representing z scores of
1.6,1.6,1.6,1.7,1.7,1.7. In the display, the letter "H" identifies the
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TABLE 6
DISTRIBUTION OF Z SCORES
Stem
Leaf
Minimum z
=
- 1.97
-1.
97
Lower hinge
0.25
-0.
85
Median z
=
0.92
-0.
33
Mean z
=
1.28
0.
H 222224
Upper hinge
2.08
0.
M 6667777999
Maximum z
=
4.02
1.
666777
SD
1.44
2.
H 011
Skewness (g,)
=
2.
8
Kurtosis (g.)
-
-0.37
3.
9
4.
0
upper and lower hinges of the distribution, and "M" identifies its
median. The z's range from - 1.97 to 4.02 (mean z = 1.21, SD =
1.45), and the 95% CI is a z from .76 to 1.66.
The combined z for the 39 studies is 7.53 (p = 9 x 10-14).
Rosenthal's (1984) file-drawer statistic indicates that 778 additional
studies with z scores averaging zero would be required to reduce the
significance of the combined ganzfeld database to nonsignificance;
that is a ratio of 19 unknown studies for every known study.
A stem-and-leaf display of the effect sizes is shown in Table 7.
The effect sizes range from - . 93 to 1.44 (mean k = 28, SD) = . 41).
The two most extreme values on both sides of the distribution are
outliers. The 95% CI is an h between . 15 and .41; the equivalent hit
rate is from 31.5% to 44.5%.
Dynamic Versus Static Targets
The use of video sequences as targets is a novel feature of the
autoganzfeld database. However, a comparable difference in target
type exists in the earlier ganzfeld studies. Of the 28 direct hits stud-
ies in the meta-analysis, 9 studies (by three independent investiga-
tors) used View Master stereoscopic slide reels as
targets
(Honorton, 1985, Studies 7-8, 16-19, 21, 38-39). Static targets
(single pictures or slides) were used in the remaining 19 studies by
seven independent investigators (Studies 1, 2, 4, 10-13, 23-31, 33-
34, 41-42). Like the autoganzfeld video sequences, View Master tar-
gets present a variety of images reinforcing a central target theme.
Psi Communication in the Ganzfeld
129
TABLE 7
DISTRIBUTION OF EFFECT SIZES (COHEN'S h)
Stem
Leaf
-. 9
3
- 4
0
OUTSIDE VALUES
Minimum h
=
-0.932
-. 3
1
Lower hinge
0.101
-. 1
0
Median h
0.259
-. 0
51
Mean h
0.280
.0
7779
Upper hinge
0.4
.1
H 002888
Maximum h
1.44
.2
M 1334
SD
0.41ª
.3
11144777
Skewness (g1)
0.280
.4
H 01113
Kurtosis (g2)
2.492
.5
7
7
3
.8
17
OUTSIDE VALUES
1.3
3
1.4
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To compare the relative impact of dynamic and static targets in
the autoganzfeld and meta-analysis, we obtained point-biserial cor-
relations for each data set using target type (static or dynamic) as
the predictor variable and the series effect size, Cohen's h, as thego
outcome variable. We test the difference between the two correla-
tions using Cohen's q (Cohen, 1977). Dynamic targets yield signifi-
cantly farger effect sizes in both data sets. For the meta-analysis, r
is .409, t (26) = 2.28, p = . 015; and for the autoganzfeld, as re-
ported above, r, is .663. The two correlations are not significantlyc
different (q = . 36; z = 1.14). Therefore, we combine the two datac
sets to obtain a better estimate of the relationship between effect size-
and target type: rp = . 439, t (45) = 3.28, p = . 002. The 95% CIS+
are 24% to 36% for static targets and 38% to 55% for dynamic tar-
gets. Thus, the cumulative evidence strongly indicates that dynamic
targets are more accurately retrieved than static targets.
Sender/Receiver Pairing
A similar analysis compares the effects of sender/receiver pairing
in the two databases. Studies in the meta-analysis did not routinely
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3.
01124
Combined (Stouffer) z
=
7.53
0.05
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provide detailed breakdowns regarding sender/receiver pairing.
Sender/receiver pairing in the meta-analysis can only be coded ac-
cording to whether subjects could bring friends to serve as their
sender of were restricted to laboratory senders. In 17 studies, by six
independent investigators, subjects were free to bring friends
(Honorton, 1985, Studies 1-2, 4, 7-8, 16, 23-28, 30, 33-34, 38-
39). Laboratory-assigned senders were used exclusively in the re-
maining 8 studies, by four independent investigators (Studies 10-
12, 18-19, 21, 29, 41). (Three studies using clairvoyance proce-
dures and no senders are excluded from this analysis.) For the au-
toganzfeld studies, we calculated separate effect sizes for each series
by sender type (combining lab friend and friend for comparability
with the meta-analysis). In the meta-analysis, rp, (23) is .403; larger
effect sizes occurred in studies where friends could serve as sender
(t = 2.11, p = . 023). For the autoganzfeld, as reported above, r, is
.363, in the same direction. The two correlations are very similar (q
= . 05; z = 0.14) and are combined to give a better estimate of the
relationship between sender/receiver pairing and ganzfeld study
outcome: 11, = . 38, t (42) = 2.66, p = . 0055. The 95% CIs are 20%
to 34% for unacquainted sender/receiver pairs and 34.1% to 49.2%
for friends. Thus, the sender/receiver relationship does have a sig-
nificant impact on performance.
Effect of Prior Ganzfeld Experience
The meta-analysis includes 14 studies, by nine independent in-
vestigators, in which novices are used exclusively (Honorton, 1985,
Studies 2, 4, 8, 10-12, 16-18, 23-24, 31, 41-42). Experienced or
mixed samples of novice and experienced subjects are used in the
remaining 14 studies, by four different investigators (Studies 1, 7,
19, 21, 25-30, 33-34, 38-39). Studies using experienced subjects
were more successful than those limited to novices; the point-biserial
correlation between level of experience and effect size is .229, t (26)
= 1.20, p = . 12. For the autoganzfeld studies, as reported above,
rp is .078. The two correlations do not differ significantly (q = . 155;
z = 0.40), and the combined rp is .194, t (38) = 1.22, p = . 105. The
respective 95% CIs are 24.5% to 44.5% for novices and 35.5% to
48% for experienced subjects.
The 95% CIs for these comparative analyses are shown graphi-
cally in Figure 2. The bottom two rows are CIs for the overall hit
rates in the meta-analysis and autoganzfeld, respectively. The next
Auto;Exper
-
Mela:Exper
Auto:Novice -
· Meta:Novice:
Auto:SR=Fr
Data set and condition
Mela:SR=Fr
Aulo:SR=Lab
Mela:SK=Lab
Aulo:TGT=Sla
Meta:TGT=Sta
Aulo:TGT=Dyn ..
Mela:TGT=Dyn
Autoganz. -
Meta-anal. -
-1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0
0.2
0.4
O.G
0.8
1.0
Effect size (h)
Figure 2. Comparison of autoganzfeld and meta-analysis 95% confidenceo
limits. Abbreviations are defined as follows: Meta = meta-analysis studies,
Auto = automated ganzfeld studies, Dyn = dynamic targets, Sta = static
targets, Lab = laboratory senders, Fr = sender is friend or acquaintance
of receiver, Novice = no prior ganzfeld experience, Exper = prior ganz-
feld experience.
two rows give the CIs for dynamic targets in the two data sets, and
so on.
DISCUSSION
We now consider various rival hypotheses that might account for
the experimental outcomes, and the degree to which the automated
ganzfeld experiments, viewed in conjunction with the earlier psi
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ganzfeld studies, constitute evidence for psi communication. Finally,
we consider directions for future research suggested by these find-
ings.
Rival Hypotheses
Sensory Cues. Only Se knows the identity of the target until R
finishes the automated judging procedure. If Se is not a PRL staff
member, a staff member not otherwise involved in the session su-
pervises target selection. In either case, the target selector knows
only which videocassette contains the target. The target selector
leaves the monitoring room with the remaining three target tapes
after knocking three times on the monitoring room door, signalling
E to return. Since the target selector only knows the videocassette
number, variations in knocking cannot communicate any useful in-
formation to E. The cardboard cover over the VCR eliminates any
visual cues to E regarding the position of the videotape or the activ-
ity of the VU meters (which are active when the target is dynamic
and has a soundtrack).
Sensory transmission from Se to R during the ganzfeld session is
eliminated by having R and Se in separate, sound-attenuated rooms.
If either participant leaves their room before R's ratings have been
registered in the computer, the session is unconditionally aborted.
The videotape target display system prevents potential handling
cues during the judging procedure. Computer registration of R's
target ratings and automated feedback after the session prevents the
possibility of cheating by Se during feedback, raised by Hyman
(1985).
After about 80% of the sessions were completed, it was becoming
clear that our hypothesis concerning the superiority of dynamic tar-
gets over static targets was receiving substantial confirmation. Be-
cause dynamic targets contain auditory as well as visual information,
we conducted a supplementary test to assess the possibility of audi-
tory leakage from the VCR soundtrack to R. With the VCR audio
set to normal amplification, no auditory signal could be detected
through R's headphones, with or without white noise. When an ex-
ternal amplifier was added between the VCR and R's headphones
and with the white noise turned completely off, the soundtrack
could sometimes be faintly detected. It is unlikely that subjects could
have detected any target audio signal with the normal VCR ampli-
fication and white noise; as we have reported, there is no correlation
between ganzfeld success rate and white noise level in these exper-
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Psi Communication in the Ganzfeld
iments. Nevertheless, to totally exclude any possibility of subliminal
cueing, we modified the equipment. Additional testing confirmed
that this modification effectively eliminated all leakage. This was
formally confirmed by an audio spectrum analysis, covering the fre-
quency domain between 475 Hz and 15.2 kHz. The critical question,
of course, is whether performance on dynamic targets diminished
after this modification. The answer is no; in fact, performance im-
proved. Before the modification, the direct hit rate on dynamic tar-
gets was 38% (150 trials, 57 hits, h = . 28, exact binomial p =
.00029, z = 3.44); the 95% CI was from 31% to 45%. Following the
modification, the direct hit rate was 50% (40 trials, 20 hits, h = . 52,
exact binomial p = . 00057, z = 3.25) with a 95% CI from 37% to
63%. The direct hit rate for all targets-static and dynamic-after
the modification was 44% (64 trials, 28 hits, h = . 39, exact binomial
p = . 00082, z = 3.15).
Randomization. As Hyman and Honorton (1986, p. 357) have
pointed out, "Because ganzfeld experiments involve only one target
selection per session ... , the ganzfeld investigator can restrict his or
her attention to a frequency analysis allowing assessment of the de-
gree to which targets occur with equal probability." We have docu-
mented both the general adequacy of the RNG used for target se-
lection and its proper functioning during the experiment.
Data selection. Except for two pilot studies, the number of partic-
ipants and trials were specified in advance for each series. The pilot
or formal status of each series was similarly specified in advance and
recorded on disk before beginning the series. We have reported all
trials, including pilot and ongoing series, using the automated ganz-
feld system. Thus, there is no "file-drawer" problem in this data-
-
base.
Psi ganzfeld success rate is similar for pilot and formal sessions.
The proportion of hits for the 66 pilot sessions is .32 (h = 16, p =
129, z = 1.13). For the 289 formal sessions, the proportion correct
is .35 (h = . 22, p = . 0001, z = 3.71). The difference is not signifi-
cant: x2 = 0.11, 1 df, p = . 734.
If we assume that the remaining trials in the three unfinished
series would yield only chance results, these series would still be sta-
tistically significant (exact binomial p = . 009, z = 2.36). This would
reduce the overall z for all 11 series from 3.89 to 3.61. Thus, inclu-
sion of the three incomplete studies does not pose an optional stop-
ping problem. ?.
Multiple analysis. Informal examination of recent issues of several
American Psychological Association journals suggests that correction
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The Journal of Parapsychology
for multiple comparisons is not a common practice in more conven-
tional areas of psychological inquiry. Nevertheless, half of Hyman's
(1985) 50-page critique of earlier psi ganzfeld research focused on
issues related to multiple testing. In the present case, advance spec-
ification of the primary hypothesis and method of analysis prevents
problems involving multiple analysis or multiple indices in our test
of the overall psi ganzfeld effect. Our direct hits analysis is actually
less significant than either the sum of ranks method (z = 4.04, p =
2.7 × 10-5) or Stanford's z scores (t = 4.53, 354 df, p = 4.1 X
10-6).
In addition to the primary hypothesis, however, we also tested
two secondary hypotheses concerning the impact of target type and
sender/receiver pairing on psi performance, and we have presented
several purely exploratory analyses as well. Our Results section in-
cludes 15 significance tests involving psi performance as the depen-
dent variable, and the p values cited are not adjusted for multiple
comparisons. Of the 15 significance tests, 9 are associated with p <
.05. The Bonferroni multiple comparisons procedure provides a
conservative method of adjusting the alpha level when several si-
multaneous tests of significance are performed (Holland & Copen-
haver, 1988; Hyman & Honorton, 1986; Rosenthal & Rubin, 1984).
When the Bonferroni adjustment is applied, six of the nine individ-
ually significant outcomes remain significant; these are: the overall
hit rate, the subject-based analysis using Stanford z scores, the dif-
ference between dynamic and static targets, the dynamic target hit
rate, and the hit rate for experienced subjects.
Although the relationship between psi performance and sender
type is not independently significant in the autoganzfeld, the cor-
relation coefficient of .363 is close to that observed in the meta-
analysis (r = . 403), and the combined result is significant. The cu-
mulative evidence, therefore, does support the conclusion that the
sender/receiver relationship is a significant moderator of ganzfeld
psi performance.
Security. Given the large number of subjects and the significance
of the outcome using subjects as the unit of analysis, subject decep-
tion is not a plausible explanation. The automated ganzfeld protocol
has been examined by several dozen parapsychologists and behav-
ioral researchers from other fields, including well-known critics of
parapsychology. Many have participated as subjects, senders, or ob-
servers. All have expressed satisfaction with our handling of security
issues and controls.
In addition, two experts on the simulation of psi ability have ex-
amined the autoganzfeld system and protocol. Ford Kross has been
Psi Communication in the Ganzfeld
135
:
a professional mentalist for over 20 years. He is the author of many
articles in mentalist periodicals and has served as Secretary/Treas-
urer of the Psychic Entertainers Association. Mr. Kross has provided
us with the following statement: "In my professional capacity as a
mentalist. I have reviewed Psychophysical Research Laboratories'
automated ganzfeld system and found it to provide excellent secu-
rity against deception by subjects" (personal communication, May,
1989). We have received similar comments from Daryl Bem, Pro-
fessor of Psychology at Cornell University. Professor Bem is well
known for his research in social and personality psychology. He is
also a member of the Psychic Entertainers Association and has per-
formed for many years as a mentalist. He visited PRI. for several
days and was a subject in Series 101.
The issue of investigator integrity can only be conclusively ad-
dressed through independent replications. It is, however, worth
drawing attention to the 13 sessions in which a visiting scientist,
Marilyn J. Schlitz, served as either experimenter (N = 7, 29% hits,
h = . 08) or sender (N = 6, 67% hits, h = . 36). Altogether, these
sessions yielded 6 direct hits (N = 13, 46.2% hits, h = . 45). This
effect size is more than twice as large as that for the database as a
whole.
Status of the Evidence for Psi Communication in the Ganzfeld
The automated ganzfeld studies satisfy the methodological
guidelines recommended by Hyman and Honorton (1986). The re-
sults are statistically significant. The effect size is homogeneous
across 11 experimental series and eight different experimenters.
Moreover, the autoganzfeld results are consistent with the outcomes
of the earlier, nonautomated ganzfeld studies; the combined z of
7.53 would be expected to arise by chance less than one time in 9
trillion.
We have shown that, contrary to the assertions of certain critics
(Druckman & Swets, 1988, p. 175), the ganzfeld psi effect exhibits
"consistent and lawful patterns of covariation found in other areas
of inquiry." The automated ganzfeld studies display the same pat-
terns of relationships between psi performance and target type,
sender/receiver acquaintance, and prior testing experience found in
earlier ganzfeld studies, and the magnitude of these relationships is
consistent across the two data sets. The impact of target type and
sender/receiver acquaintance is also consistent with patterns in spon-
taneous case studies, linking ostensible psi experiences to emotion-
ally significant events and persons. These findings cannot be ex-
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The Journal of Parapsychology
plained by conventional theories of coincidence (Diaconis &
Mosteller, 1989).
Hyman and Honorton (1986) have stated,
.
... the best way to resolve the [ganzfeld] controversy ... is to await the
outcome of future ganzfeld experiments. These experiments, ideally,
will be carried out in such a way as to circumvent the file-drawer prob-
lem, problems of multiple analysis, and the various defects in random-
ization, statistical application, and documentation pointed out by
Hyman. If a variety of parapsychologists and other investigators con-
tinue to obtain significant results under these conditions, then the exis-
tence of a genuine communications anomaly will have been demon-
strated. (pp. 353-354)
We have presented a series of experiments that satisfy these
guidelines. Although no single investigator or laboratory can satisfy
the requirement of independent replication, the automated ganzfeld
studies are quite consistent with the earlier studies. On the basis of
the cumulative evidence, we conclude that the ganzfeld effect rep-
resents a genuine communications anomaly. This conclusion will
either be strengthened or weakened by additional independent rep-
lications, but there is no longer any justification for the claim made
by some critics that the existing evidence does not warrant serious
attention by the scientific community.
Recommendations for Future Research
Recent psi ganzfeld research has necessarily focused on meth-
odological issues arising from the ganzfeld controversy. It is essen-
tial that future studies comply with the methodological standards
agreed on by researchers and critics. Yet it is equally imperative that
serious attention be given to conditions associated with successful
outcomes.
Small to medium effect sizes characterize many research findings
in the biomedical and social sciences (e.g., Cohen, 1977; Rosenthal,
1984). Rosenthal (1986) and Utts (1986) make a strong case for
more careful consideration of the magnitude of effect in the design
and analysis of future ganzfeld studies. The automated ganzfeld
studies show a success rate slightly in excess of 34%. Utts's (1986)
power analysis shows that for an effect of this size, the investigator
has only about one chance in three of obtaining a statistically signif-
icant result in a 50-trial experiment. Even with 100 trials-an unu-
sually large sample size in ganzfeld research-the probability of a
significant outcome is only about .5.
Psi Communication in the Ganzfeld
137
We urge ganzfeld investigators to use dynamic targets and to de-
sign their studies to allow subjects to have the option to have friends
or acquaintances as their senders. The similarity of the autoganzfeld
and meta-analysis data sets strongly indicates that these factors are
important moderators of psi ganzfeld performance. If our estimate
of the impact of dynamic and static targets is accurate, a 50-session
series using dynamic targets has approximately an 84% chance of
yielding a significant outcome. A comparable series with static tar-
gets has only about one chance in five of achieving significance.
REFERENCES
ALCOCK, J. E. (1986). Comments on the Hyman-Honorton ganzfeld contro-
versy. Journal of Parapsychology, 50, 345-348.
AKERS, C. (1984). Methodological criticisms of parapsychology. In S. Krippner
(Ed.), Advances in parapsychological research, Vol. 4 (pp. 112-164). Jeffer-
son, NC: McFarland.
BERGER, R. E., & HONORTON, C. (1986). An automated psi ganzfeld testing
system. In D. H. Weiner & D. I. Radin (Eds.), Research in parapsychology
1985 (pp. 85-88). Metuchen, NJ: Scarecrow Press.
BLACKMORE, S. (1980). The extent of selective reporting of ESP. ganzfeld
studies. European Journal of Parapsychology, 3, 213-219.
BLACKMORE, S. (1987). A report of a visit to Carl Sargent's laboratory. Journal
of the Society for Psychical Research, 54, 186-198.
BRAUD, W. G. (1978). Psi conducive conditions: Explorations and interpre-
tations. In B. Shapin & L. Coly (Eds.), Psi and states of awareness (pp. 1-
34). New York: Parapsychology Foundation, Inc.
BRAUD, W. G., WOOD, R., & BRAUD, L. W. (1975). Free-response GESP per-
formance during an experimental hypnagogic state induced by visual
and acoustic ganzfeld techniques: A replication and extension. Journal of
the American Society for Psychical Research, 69, 105-113.
BRIGGS, K. C., & MYERS, I. B. (1957). Myers-Briggs Type Indicator Form F. Palo
Alto, CA: Consulting Psychologists Press, Inc.
BROWNLEE, K. A. (1965). Statistical theory and methodology in science and engi-
neering. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
CHILD, I. L. (1986). Comments on the ganzfeld controversy. Journal of Para-
psychology, 50, 337-344.
COHEN, J. (1977). Statistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences (rev. ed.).
New York: Academic Press.
DIACONIS, P., & MOSTELLER, F. (1989). Methods for studying coincidences.
Journal of the American Statistical Association, 84, 853-861.
DRUCKMAN, D., & SWETS, J. (1988). Enhancing human performance: Issues, the-
ories, and techniques. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
HARLEY, T., & MATTHEWS, G. (1987). Cheating, psi, and the appliance of
science: A'reply to Blackmore. Journal of the Society for Psychical Research,
54, 199-207.
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Volume 19, Number 12, December 1989
Plenum Press · New York-London
This issue completes Volume 19
FNDPA4 19(12) 1441-1538 (1989)
ISSN 0015-9018
FOUNDATIONS
OF PHYSICS
An International Journal Devoted to the Conceptual Bases and
Fundamental Theories of Modern Physics, Biophysics, and Cosmology
i
Editor:
Alwyn van der Merwe
Editorial Board
Asim O. Barut
R. Bruce Lindsay
Karl R. Popper
Peter G. Bergmann
Per-Olov Löwdin
Ilya Prigogine
Nikolai N. Bogolubov
Henry Margenau
Abdus Salam
David Bohm
Jagdish Mehra
John L. Synge
Robert S. Cohen
André Mercier
Hans-J. Treder
Olivier Costa de Beauregard
Louis Néel
Jean-Pierre Vigier
Robert H. Dicke
Kazuhiko Nishijima
Mikhail Vol'kenshtein
Bai-lin Hao
James L. Park
Carl Friedrich von Weizsäcker
Max Jammer
Linus Pauling
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Founding Editors: Henry Margenau and Wolfgang Yourgraut
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Foundations of Physics, Vol. 19, No. 12. 1989
Evidence for Consciousness-Related Anomalies in
Random Physical Systems
Dean I. Radin1 and Roger D. Nelson2
Received May 6, 1988; revised June 12, 1989
Speculations about the role of consciousness in physical systems are frequently
observed in the literature concerned with the interpretation of quantum mechanics.
While only three experimental investigations can be found on this topic in physics
journals, more than 800 relevant experiments have been reported in the literature
of parapsychology. A well-defined body of empirical evidence from this domain
was reviewed using meta-analytic techniques to assess methodological quality and
overall effect size. Results showed effects conforming to chance expectation in
control conditions and unequivocal non-chance effects in experimental conditions.
This quantitative literature review agrees with the findings of two earlier reviews,
suggesting the existence of some form of consciousness-related anomaly in random
physical systems.
-
1. INTRODUCTION
The nature of the relationship between human consciousness and the
physical world has intrigued philosophers for millenia. In this century,
speculations about mind-body interactions persist, often contributed by
physicists in discussions of the measurement problem in quantum mechanics.
Virtually all of the founders of quantum theory-Planck, de Broglie,
Heisenberg, Schrödinger, Einstein-considered this subject in depth, (1) and
contemporary physicists continue this tradition. (2-7)
' Department of Psychology, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544. Present
address: Contel Technology Center, 15000 Conference Center Drive, P.O. Box 10814,
Chantilly, Virginia 22021-3808.
2 Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton,
New Jersey 08544.
1499
0015-9018/89/1200-1499$06.000 @ 1989 Plenum Publishing Corporation
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The following expression of the problem can be found in a recent
interpretation of quantum theory:
If conscious choice can decide what particular observation I measure, and there-
fore into what states my consciousness splits, might not conscious choice also
be able to influence the outcome of the measurement? One possible place where
mind may influence matter is in quantum effects. Experiments on whether it is
possible to affect the decay rates of nuclei by thinking suitable thoughts would
presumably be easy to perform, and might be worth doing.(8)
Given the distinguished history of speculations about the role of
consciousness in quantum mechanics, one might expect that the physics
literature would contain a sizable body of empirical data on this topic. A
search, however, reveals only three studies.
The first is in an article by Hall, Kim, McElroy, and Shimony, who
reported an experiment "based upon taking seriously the proposal that the
reduction of the wave packet is due to a mind-body interaction, in which
both of the interacting systems are changed."(9) This experiment examined
whether one person could detect if another person had previously observed
a quantum mechanical event (gamma emission from sodium-22 atoms).
The idea was based on the supposition that if person A's observation
actually changes the physical state of a system, then when person B obser-
ves the same system later, B's experience may be different according to
whether A has or has not looked at the system. Hall et al.'s results, based
on a total of 554 trials, did not support the hypothesis; the observed
number of "hits" obtained in their experiment was precisely the number
expected by chance (277), while the variance of their measurements was
significantly smaller than expected (p < 0.05).(9)
The second study is referred to by Hall et al., who end their article by
pointing out that a similar, unpublished experiment using cobalt-57 as the
source was successful (40 hits out of 67 trials ).(10)
The third study is a more systematic investigation reported by
Jahn and Dunne,(11) who summarize results of over 25 million binary
trials collected during seven years of experimentation with random-event
generators. These experiments, involving long-term data collection with
33 unselected individuals, provide persuasive, replicable evidence of an
anomalous correlation between conscious intention and the output of
random number generators.
Thus, of three pertinent experiments referenced in mainstream physics
journals, one describes results statistically too close to chance expectation
and two describe positive effects.(9-11) Given the theoretical implications of
such an effect, it is remarkable that no further experiments of this type can
be found in the physics literature; but this is not to say that no such
experiments have been performed. In fact, dozens of researchers have
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reported conceptually identical experiments in the puzzling and uncertain
domain of parapsychology. Perhaps because of the insular nature of
scientific disciplines, the vast majority of these experiments are unknown
to most scientists. A few critics who have considered this literature have
dismissed the experiments as being flawed, nonreplicable
or open
to fraud, (12-16) but their assertions are countered by at
least two
detailed reviews which provide strong statistical support for the existence
of anomalous consciousness-related effects with random number
generators.(17,18) In this paper, we describe the results of a comprehensive,
quantitative meta-analysis which focused on the questions of methodologi-
cal quality and replicability in these experiments.
2. THE EXPERIMENTS
The experiments involved some form of microelectronic random
number generator (RNG), a human observer, and a set of instructions for
the observer to attempt to "influence" the RNG to generate particular
numbers, or changes in a distribution, solely by intention. RNGs are
usually based upon a source of truly random events such as electronic
noise, radioactive decay, or randomly seeded pseudorandom sequences.(19)
Feedback about the distribution of random events is often provided in the
form of a digital display, but audio feedback, computer graphics, and a
variety of other mechanisms have also been used. Some of the RNGs
described in the literature are technically sophisticated, the best devices
employing electromagnetic shielding, environmental failsafe
mechanisms
triggered by deviant voltages, currents, or temperature,
automatic
computer-based data recording on magnetic media, redundant hard copy
output, periodic randomness calibrations, and so on.(18,20)
RNGs are typically designed to produce a sequence of random bits at
the press of a button. After generating a sequence of say, 100 random bits
(0's or 1's), the number of 1's in the sequence may be provided as feedback.
In an experimental protocol using a binary RNG, a run might consist of
an observer being asked to cause the RNG to produce, in three successive
button presses, a high number (sum of 1's greater than chance expectation
of 50), a low number (less than 50), and a control condition with no direc-
tional intention. An experiment might consist of a group of individuals
each contributing a hundred such runs, or one individual contributing
several thousand runs. Results are usually analyzed by comparing high
aim and low aim means against a control mean or theoretical chance
expectation.
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3. META-ANALYTIC PROCEDURES
The quantitative literature review, also called meta-analysis, has
become a valuable tool in the behavioral and social sciences. (21)
Meta-analysis is analogous to well-established procedures used in the
physical sciences to determine parameters and constants. The technique
assesses replication of an effect within a body of studies by examining the
distribution of effect sizes.(22-24) In the present context, the null hypothesis
(no mental influence on the RNG output) specifies an expected mean effect
size of zero. A homogeneous distribution of effect sizes with nonzero mean
indicates replication of an effect, and the size of the deviation of the mean
from its expected value estimates the magnitude of the effect.
Meta-analyses assume that effects being compared are similar across
different experiments, that is, that all studies seek to estimate the same pop-
ulation parameters. Thus the scope of a quantitative review must be strictly
delimited to ensure appropriate commonality across the different studies
that are combined.(21,25) This can present a nontrivial problem in meta-
analytic reviews because replication studies typically investigate a number
of variables in addition to those studied in the original experiments. In the
present case, because different subjects, experimental protocols, and RNGs
were employed within the reviewed literature, some heterogeneity
attributable to these factors was expected in the obtained distribution of
effect sizes. However, the circumscription for the review required that every
study in the database have the same primary goal or hypothesis, and hence
estimate the same underlying effect.
Experiments selected for review examined the following hypothesis:
The statistical output of an electronic RNG is correlated with observer
intention in accordance with prespecified instructions, as indicated by
the directional shift of distribution parameters (usually the mean) from
expected values.
Because this "directional shift" is most often reported as a standard
normal deviate (i.e., Z score) in the reviewed experiments, we determined
effect size as a Z score normalized by the square root of the sample size
(N), e = Z/ /N, where N was the total number of individual random events
(with probability of a hit at p = 0.5, p = 0.25, etc.). This effect size measure
is equivalent to a Pearson product moment correlation.(21)
3.1. Unit of Analysis
To avoid redundant inclusion of data in a meta-analysis, "units of
analysis" are often specified. We employed the following method: If
an author distinguished among several experiments reported in a single
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article with titles such as "pilot test" or "confirmatory test," or provided
independent statistical summaries, each of these studies was coded and
quality-assessed separately. If an experiment consisted of two or more
conditions comparing different intentions or types of RNG devices, the
data were split into separate units of analysis to allow the results to be
coded unambiguously. In general, within a given reviewed report, the
largest possible aggregation of nonoverlapping data collected under a
single intentional aim was defined as the unit of analysis (hereafter called
an experiment or study).
For each experiment, a Z score was assigned corresponding to
whether the observed result matched the direction of intention. Thus, a
negative Z obtained under intention to "aim low" was recorded as a
positive score. When sufficient data were provided in a report, Z was
calculated from those data and compared with the reported results; the
new calculation was used if there was a discrepancy. If only probability
levels were reported, these were transformed into the corresponding Z
score. For experiments reported only as "nonsignificant," a conservative
value of Z = 0 was assigned; if the outcome was reported only as "statisti-
cally significant," Z = 1.645 was assigned; and if sample size was not repor-
ted or could not be calculated from the information provided, a special
code of N = 1 was assigned.
3.2. Assessing Quality
Because the hypothesized anomalous effect is not
easily accom-
modated within the prevailing scientific world-view, it is particularly
important to assess the trustworthiness of each reviewed experiment.
Unfortunately, estimating experimental quality tends to be a subjective
task confounded by prior expectations and beliefs. (26,27) Estimates of inter-
judge reliability in assessing the quality of research reports, for example,
rarely exceed correlations of 0.5.(28) We addressed this problem by
assigning to each experiment a single quality weight derived from a set of
sixteen binary (present/absent) criteria. The first author coded and
double-checked the coding for all studies; the second author independently
coded the first 100 studies. Inter-judge reliability for quality criteria was
r = 0.802 with 98 degrees of freedom.
These criteria were developed from published criticisms about
random-number generator experiments(14,15,29-33) and from expert opinion
on important methodological considerations when performing studies
involving human behavior.(20,34.35) Collectively, these criteria form a
measure of credibility by which to judge the reported data. The criteria
assess the integrity of the experiment in four categories-procedures,
....
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statistics, the data, and the RNG device-and they cover virtually all
methodological criticisms raised to date. They are (1) control tests noted,
(2) local controls conducted, (3) global controls conducted, (4) controls
established through the experimental protocol, (5) randomness calibrations
conducted, (6) failsafe equipment employed, (7) data automatically recor-
ded, (8) redundant data recording employed, (9) data double checked,
(10) data permanently archived, (11) targets alternated on successive trials,
(12) data selection prevented by protocol or equipment, (13) fixed run
lengths specified, (14) formal experiment declared, (15) tamper-resistant
RNG employed, and (16) use of unselected subjects.
Each criterion was coded as being present or absent in the report of
an experiment, specifically excluding consideration of previously published-
descriptions of RNG devices or control tests. This strategy was employed
to reflect lower confidence in such experiments since, for example, random-
ness tests conducted once on an RNG do not guarantee acceptable perfor-
mance in the same RNG in all future experiments. As a result, assessed
quality was conservative, that is, lower than the "true" quality for some
experiments, especially those reported only as abstracts or conference
proceedings. Using unit weights (which have been shown to be robust in
such applications(36)) on each of the sixteen descriptors, the quality rating
for an individual experiment was simply the sum of the descriptors. Thus,
while a quality score near zero indicated a low quality or poorly reported
experiment, a score near sixteen reflected a highly credible experiment.
3.3. Assessing Effect Size
Assume that each of K experiments produces effect size estimates e of
a parameter E, based on N samples, and that each e has a known standard
error s. The weighted mean effect size is calculated as e. = _ w,e//2 @i,
where @; = 1/s? = Ni, and i ranges from 1 to K. The standard error of e. is
se = (E);)-1/2. A test for homogeneity for the K estimates of e, is given by
HK=[w, (e,-e.)2, where He has a chi-square distribution with K - 1
degrees of freedom.(37) The same procedure can be followed to test for
homogeneity of effect size across M independent investigators. In this case,
e .; and Sej are calculated per investigator, and the test for homogeneity is
performed as HM= [w, (e.,-e. M)2, where e., and w, are mean weighted
effect size and 1/s2 per investigator, respectively, e. M=E woje. ; /2 w), and
j ranges from 1 to M. HM has M - 1 degrees of freedom.
For a quality-weighted analysis, we may determine e. Q=
E (Q,wie;)/2(Q/@;), where Q, is the quality assessed for experiment i. The
standard error associated with eg is seQ = ( E ( Q, w;) ( EQ, W) 2) - 1/2; the
test for homogeneity is similar to that described above. Finally, following
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the practice of reviewers in the physical sciences, (23,24) we deleted potential
"outlier" studies to obtain a homogeneous distribution of effect sizes and to
reduce the possibility that the calculated mean effect size may have been
spuriously enlarged by extreme values. The procedure used was as follows:
If the homogeneity statistic for all studies was significant (at the p < 0.05
level), the study that would produce the largest reduction in this statistic
was deleted; this was repeated until the homogeneity statistic had become
nonsignificant.
4. RESULTS
On-line bibliographic databases for psychology and physics journals
were searched, as was a specialized database covering parapsychological
articles, technical reports, conference proceedings and
manuscripts.
Altogether 152 references were found from 1959 to 1987. These reports
described 832 studies conducted by 68 different investigators (597
experimental studies and 235 control studies). Fifty-four experimental and
33 control studies reported only as nonsignificant were assigned Z = 0. Six
experiments and two control studies coded as (N=1, Z>0) were
eliminated from further meta-analysis because effect size could not be
accurately estimated (this required the elimination of one investigator who
reported a single study). Figures 1 and 2 show the distributions of Z scores
reported for control and experimental studies, respectively.
12
CONTROL, N = 235
THEORY
FIT
00000
9
SHIFT
6
FREQ ( % )
3
0
-3
5
4
3
-2
1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Z-SCORES
Fig. 1. Distribution of Z scores reported in 235 control studies. Thirty-three of these studies
were reported only as "nonsignificant" and were assigned Z scores of zero. To replace the
spurious spike at Z=0, those 33 studies were recast as normally distributed Z scores.
bounded by ±1.64, averaging Z = 0.
825 19.12-5
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REG META-ANALYSIS: FREQUENCY OF Z-SCORES
12
EXPERIMENTAL, N = 597
THEORY
FIT
.....
9
SHIFT
6
FREQ ( % )
3
.
.
0
3
5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2-SCORES
Fig. 2. Distribution of Z scores reported in 597 experimental studies. Fifty-four of these
studies were reported as "nonsignificant" and were assigned Z scores of zero. As in Fig. 1.
those 54 studies were recast as normally distributed Z scores, bounded by ± 1.64, averaging
Z= 0.
3
effect size (x10e-4)
N = 591
N = 67
N =490
1
N = 591
N =58
2 -
1
0
N = 233
-1
(a) CNTL (b) EXPT (c) EXP.1 (d) EXP H (e) EXP/H (1) QUAL (g) QUAL H
Fig. 3: Mean effect size point estimates ±1 standard error
for (a) control studies and (b) individual experiments;
(c) mean effect size per investigator, (d) homogeneous mean
effect size for experiments, (e) homogeneous mean effect size
per investigator, (f) mean effect size for quality-weighted
experiments, and (g) mean effect size for homogeneous
quality-weighted experiments.
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These results, expressed as overall mean effect sizes, show that control
studies conform well to chance expectation (Fig. 3a), and that experimental
effects, whether calculated for studies or investigators, deviate significantly
from chance expectation (Fig. 3b, 3c). To obtain a homogeneous distribu-
tion of effect sizes, it was necessary to delete 17% of individual outlier
studies (Fig. 3d) and 13% of mean effect sizes across investigators (Fig. 3e).
This may be compared with exemplary physical and social science reviews,
where it is sometimes necessary to discard as many as 45 % of the studies
to achieve a homogeneous effect size distribution.(19) Of individual studies
deleted, 77% deviated from the overall mean in the positive direction, and
of investigator means deleted, all were positive (i.e., supportive of the
experimental hypothesis).
4.1. Effect of Quality
Some critics have postulated that as experimental quality increases in
these studies, effect size would decrease, ultimately regressing to the "true"
value of zero, i.e., chance results.(12,13.15.32,33.38) We tested this conjecture
with two linear regressions of mean effect size vs. mean quality assessed per
investigator, one weighted with @, as defined above and the other weighted
with the number of studies per investigator. The calculated slope for the
former is -2.5x 10-$±3.2x10-5, and for the latter, -7.6x10-4±
3.9 x 10-4. These nonsignificant relationships between quality and effect
size is typical of meta-analytic findings in other fields, (39,40) suggesting
that the present database is not compromised by poor experimental
methodology. Another assessment of the effect of quality was obtained by
comparing unweighted and quality-weighted effect sizes per experiment
(Fig. 3b vs. 3f). These are nearly identical, and the same is true after
deleting outliers to obtain a homogeneous quality-weighted distribution
(Fig. 3d vs. 3g), confirming that differences in methodological quality are
not significant predictors of effect size.
It might be argued that the quality assessment procedure employed
here was nonoptimal because some quality criteria are more important
than others, so that if appropriate weights were |assigned, the
quality-weighted effect size might turn out to be quite different. This was
tested by Monte Carlo simulation, using sets of 16 weights, one per
criterion, randomly selected over the range 0 to 6. A quality-weighted effect
size was calculated for the 597 experiments as before, now using the
random weights instead of unit weights, and this process was repeated one
thousand times, yielding a distribution of possible quality ratings. The
average effect size from the simulation was 3.18x 10-4+ 0.15x 10-4,
indicating that in this particular database coded by these sixteen criteria,
.... .
.
.
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the probable range of the quality-weighted mean effect size clearly excludes
chance expectation of zero.
4.2. The "Filedrawer" Problem
Although accounting for differences in assessed quality does not nullify
the effect, it is well known in the behavioral and social sciences that non-
significant studies are published less often than significant studies (this is
called the "filedrawer" problem(21.41-43). If the number of nonsignificant
studies in the filedrawer is large, this reporting bias may seriously inflate
the effect size estimated in a meta-analysis. We explored several procedures
for estimating the magnitude of this problem and to assess the possibility
that the filedrawer problem can sufficiently explain the observed results.
The filedrawer hypothesis implicitly maintains that all or nearly all
significant positive results are reported. If positive studies are not balanced
by reports of studies having chance and negative outcomes, the empirical
Z score distribution should show more than the expected proportion of
scores in the positive tail beyond Z = 1.645. While no argument can be
made that all negative effects are reported, it is interesting to note that the
database contains 37 Z scores in the negative tail, where only 30 would be
expected by chance. On the other hand, there are 152 scores in the positive
tail, about five times as many as expected. The question is whether this
excess represents a genuine deviation from the null hypothesis or a defect
in reporting or editorial practices.
This question may be addressed by modeling based on the assumption
that all significant positive results are reported. A four-parameter fit mini-
mizing the chi-square goodness-of-fit statistic was applied to all observed
data with Z> 1.645, using the exponential
Y =- 1
(1)
to simulate the effect of skew or kurtosis in producing the dispropor-
tionately long positive tail. This exponential is a probability distribution
with the same mean and variance as the normal distribution, but with
kurtosis = 3.0.
To begin, the null hypothesis of a (0, 1) normal distribution with no
kurtosis was considered. To account for the excess in the positive tail,
N = 585,000 filedrawer studies were required, and the chi-squared statistic
remained far too large to indicate a reasonable fit (see Table I). This large
N, in comparison with the 597 studies actually reported together with the
poor goodness-of-fit statistic, suggests that the assumption of a (0, 1)
normal distribution is inappropriate.
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the probable range of the quality-weighted mean effect size clearly excludes
chance expectation of zero.
4.2. The "Filedrawer" Problem
Although accounting for differences in assessed quality does not nullify
the effect, it is well known in the behavioral and social sciences that non-
significant studies are published less often than significant studies (this is
called the "filedrawer" problem(21,41-43)). If the number of nonsignificant
studies in the filedrawer is large, this reporting bias may seriously inflate
the effect size estimated in a meta-analysis. We explored several procedures
for estimating the magnitude of this problem and to assess the possibility
that the filedrawer problem can sufficiently explain the observed results.
The filedrawer hypothesis implicitly maintains that all or nearly all
significant positive results are reported. If positive studies are not balanced
by reports of studies having chance and negative outcomes, the empirical
Z score distribution should show more than the expected proportion of
scores in the positive tail beyond Z= 1.645. While no argument can be
made that all negative effects are reported, it is interesting to note that the
database contains 37 Z scores in the negative tail, where only 30 would be
expected by chance. On the other hand, there are 152 scores in the positive
tail, about five times as many as expected. The question is whether this
excess represents a genuine deviation from the null hypothesis or a defect
in reporting or editorial practices.
This question may be addressed by modeling based on the assumption
that all significant positive results are reported. A four-parameter fit mini-
mizing the chi-square goodness-of-fit statistic was applied to all observed
data with Z≥ 1.645, using the exponential
Y=
1
520
e-V2 (1x-Mio)
(1)
to simulate the effect of skew or kurtosis in producing the dispropor-
tionately long positive tail. This exponential is a probability distribution
with the same mean and variance as the normal distribution, but with
kurtosis = 3.0.
To begin, the null hypothesis of a (0, 1) normal distribution with no
kurtosis was considered. To account for the excess in the positive tail,
N = 585,000 filedrawer studies were required, and the chi-squared statistic
remained far too large to indicate a reasonable fit (see Table I). This large
N, in comparison with the 597 studies actually reported together with the
poor goodness-of-fit statistic, suggests that the assumption of a (0, 1)
normal distribution is inappropriate.
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Table I. Four-Parameter Fit (E:N, N. Mean, sd) Minimizing Chi-Square (10 df )
Goodness-of-Fit Statistic to the Positive Tail of the Observed Z Score Distribution,
for Several Exponential : Normal Ratios"
Assumption
E: N ratio
N
Mean
sd
Chi-square
P
Normal distribution
(null hypothesis )
0
585.000
0
1
57,867.84
0
1
5,300
0
1
220.97
0
2
4,800
0
1
167.84
0
3
4,600
0
1
148.45
0
10
4,400
0
1
119.69
0
Empirical distribution
0
700
0.145
2.10
23.94
0.008
1
747
0.345
1.90
16.32
0.091
2
757
0.445
1.80
14.21
0.164
3
777
0.445
1.80
11.08
0.226
10
807
0.445
1.80
11.08
0.351
" The null hypothesis is tested by clamping the mean at 0 and the standard deviation at 1.
allowing N and E: N to vary. The empirical database is addressed by allowing all four
parameters to vary.
Adding simulated kurtosis to a (0, 1) normal distribution by mixing
exponential [Eq. (1)] and normal distributions in a 1:1 ratio reduced N by
two orders of magnitude, and ratios of 2:1, 3:1, and 10:1 exponential to
normal (E:N) yielded further small improvements. However, the chi-
squared statistic still indicated a poor fit to the empirical data. Applying
the same mixture of exponential and normal distributions, but starting
from the observed values of N = 597, mean Z score = 0.645, and standard
deviation = 1.601, with the constraint that the mean could only decrease
from 0.645, resulted in much better fits to the data. Table I shows the
results.
This procedure shows that the null hypothesis is unviable, even after
allowing a huge filedrawer. The chi-square fit vastly improves with the
addition of kurtosis, but only becomes a reasonably good fit when mean
and standard deviation are allowed to approximate the empirical values.
The filedrawer estimate from this model depends on a number of assump-
tions (e.g., the true distribution is generally normal, but has a dispropor-
tionately large positive tail). It suggests a total number of experimental
studies on the order of 800, of which three-fourths have been formally
reported.
A somewhat simpler modeling procedure was applied to the data
assuming that all studies with significant Z scores in either the positive or
negative tail are reported. The model is based on the normal distribution
with a standard deviation = 1, and estimates the mean and N required to
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account for the 152 Z scores in the positive tail and 37 Z scores in the
negative tail. This mean-shift model, which ignores the shape of the
observed distribution, results in an N = 1,580 and a mean Z score = 0.34.
These modeling efforts suggest that the number of unreported or
unretrieved RNG studies falls in the range of 200 to 1,000. A remaining
question is, how many filedrawer studies with an average null result would
be required to reduce the effect to nonsignificance (i.e., p <0.05)? This
"failsafe" quantity is 54,000-approximately 90 times the number of studies
actually reported. Rosenthal suggests that an effect can be considered
robust if the failsafe number is more than five times the observed number
of studies. (21)
5. DISCUSSION
Repeatable experiments are the keystone of experimental science. In
practice, repeatability depends upon a host of controllable and uncon-
trollable ingredients, including factors such as stochastic variation, changes
in environmental conditions, difficulties in communicating tacit knowledge
employed by successful experimenters,(44) and so on. Difficulties in
achieving systematic replication are therefore ubiquitous, from experimental
psychology(21,45) to particle physics. (23,24) Of course, this is not to say that
systematic replication is impossible in these or other fields, but it may
appear to be extraordinarily difficult when experiments are considered
individually rather than cumulatively. In the case of the present database,
the authors of a recent report issued by the US National Research Council
stated that the overall results of the RNG experiments could not be
explained by chance,(46) but they questioned the quality and replicability of
the research. This meta-analysis shows that effects are not a function of
experimental quality, and that the replication rate is as good as that found
in exemplary experiments in psychology and physics.
Besides the issue of replicability, five other objections are often raised
about the present experiments. These are (a) the effect is inconsistent with
prevailing scientific models, (b) the experimental methodology is techni-
cally naïve, thus the results are not trustworthy, (c) the experiments are
vulnerable to fraud by subjects or by experimenters, (d) skeptics cannot
obtain positive results, and (e) there are no adequate theoretical explana-
tions or predictions for the anomalous effect.
These criticisms may be addressed as follows: (a) "Inconsistency with
the scientific world-view" is essentially a philosophical argument that
carries little weight in the face of repeatable experimental evidence, as
suggested by the present and two corroborating meta-analyses.(17.18)
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Indeed, if the "inconsistency" argument were sufficient to discount
anomalous findings, we would have ignored much of the motivation
leading to the development of quantum mechanics. (b) The "naïve method-
ology" argument was empirically addressed by the assessment of
methodological quality in the present analysis. No significant relationship
between quality and effect size was found. (c) Fraud postulated as the
explanation of the results is untenable as it would have required
widespread collusion among 68 independent investigators. In any case,
even severe critics of parapsychological experiments have discounted fraud
as a viable explanation.(32) (d) Skeptics often assert that only "believers"
obtain positive results in such experiments. However, a thorough literature
search finds not a single attempted replication of the RNG experiment by
a publicly proclaimed skeptic; thus the assertion is not based on verifiable
evidence. Furthermore, skeptics who claim to have attempted replications
insist (without providing details or references) that they have never
achieved positive results in any of their RNG experiments! (15,47) Such a
claim is itself quite remarkable, as the likelihood of never obtaining a
statistically significant result by chance in series of experiments can be
extremely low, depending on the number of experiments conducted. Unfor-
tunately, because we cannot determine how many experiments skeptics
have actually conducted, it is impossible to judge the validity of this
criticism.
Finally, (e) the "no theoretical basis" argument is correct, but it does
not support a negative conclusion about experimental observation. There
are at present no adequate theories, with the possible exception of some
interpretations of quantum mechanics,(2,3,8,11) that convincingly explain or
predict consciousness-related anomalies in random physical systems. We
note, however, that the anomalous effects reviewed in this paper apparently
can be operationally predicted under well-specified conditions. For exam-
ple, when individuals are instructed to "aim" for high (or low) numbers in
RNG experiments, it is possible to predict with some small degree of
confidence that anomalous positive (or negative) shifts of distribution
means will be observed.
6. CONCLUSION
In this paper, we have summarized results of all known experiments
testing possible interactions between consciousness and the statistical
behavior of random-number generators. The overall effect size obtained in
experimental conditions cannot be adequately explained by methodological
flaws or selective reporting practices. Therefore, after considering all of the
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retrievable evidence, published and unpublished, tempered by all legitimate
criticisms raised to date, it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that under
certain circumstances, consciousness interacts with random physical
systems. Whether this effect will ultimately be established as an overlooked
methodological artifact, as a novel bioelectrical perturbation of sensitive
electronic devices, or as an empirical contribution to the philosophy of
mind, remains to be seen.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This study was supported by major grants from the James S.
McDonnell Foundation, Inc. and the John E. Fetzer Foundation, Inc. The
authors express their gratitude to Dr. York Dobyns of the Princeton
University Engineering Anomalies Laboratory for his assistance with the
filedrawer models.
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Reprinted from the Proceedings of the Parapsychological Association 33rd Annual Convention,
Chevy Chase, MD, August 16-20, 1990.
Extraversion and ESP Performance:
A Meta-Analysis and a New Confirmation
Charles Honorton and Diane C. Ferrari
Psychophysical Research Laboratories
and
Daryl J. Bem
Cornell University
ABSTRACT --- We report a meta-analysis of research on the relationship between performance in extrasensory perception
(ESP) tasks and the psychological trait extraversion. The meta-analysis comprises 60 independent studies, 17 independent
investigators, and 2,963 subjects. The overall weighted mean correlation is small (r = . 09), significant (z = 4.63, p = . 000004),
and nonhomogeneous. For forced-choice ESP studies (N = 45), the ESP/extraversion relationship appears to be an artifact of
subjects' knowledge of their ESP performance upon their responses to the extraversion measure: evidence for the relationship
is limited to studies where subjects completed the ESP task prior to extraversion assessment (N = 18 studies, r =. 17, z = 3.51);
no evidence for an ESP /extraversion relationship exists in studies where extraversion was assessed before the ESP task (N = 16
studies, r = -. 02, z = - 0.78). The two correlations differ significantly (z = 3.58, p = . 00045). For free-response studies, a
significant ESP/extraversion relationship exists that is free of this problem: extraversion testing preceded the ESP task in 11
of the 14 free-response studies (r = . 21, z = 4.57, p = . 000005). The ESP/extraversion relationship is both significant (r = . 20,
z = 4.46, p == . 0000083) and homogeneous in the subset of free-response studies involving individual testing (N = 12 studies).
The effect is homogeneous across investigators and extraversion scales. We also report a new confirmation of the ESP/ ex-
traversion relationship using the Extraversion/Introversion Scale of the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator. The effect size (r = . 18,
t = 2.67, 219 df, p = . 008) is very close to the meta-analytic estimate for free-response studies (r = . 20) and is homogeneous
across the eight experimenters. While the relationship between extraversion and ESP in the forced-choice studies is probably
artifactual, we conclude that there is a significant ESP/extraversion relationship in the free-response studies, that the
relationship is consistent across investigators and scales, and that meta-analysis of parapsychological research domains has
predictive validity.
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ESP perform-
ance and individual differences in psychological
traits has been explored in many studies since the
1940s. Extraversion is one of the most frequently
studied trait variables and three narrative reviews of
the ESP/extraversion literature have concluded that
ESP performance is positively related to extraversion
(Eysenck, 1967; Palmer, 1977; Sargent, 1981). We pre-
sent a meta-analysis of the extraversion/ESP litera-
ture. The purpose of the meta-analysis is to (1) update
earlier narrative reviews of the ESP./extraversion re-
lationship, (2) estimate the magnitude of the relation-
ship, (3) assess potential threats to validity, and (4)
identify procedural and other variables that moder-
ate the relationship. We will then present a new
confirmation of the ESP/extraversion relationship
and compare its magnitude to that estimated from the
meta-analysis.
The Meta-Analysis
Previous parapsychological meta-analyses have
focused on evidence for psi functioning in such re-
search domains as ganzfeld communication (Honor-
ton, 1985), precognition (Honorton & Ferrari, 1989),
and studies of the impact of conscious intention on
random number generators (Radin & Nelson, 1989).
In such cases the effect size index is based on the
proportion of hits and the unit of analysis is the trial.
In the present case, we are interested in the relation-
ship between psi performance and a predictor vari-
able, extraversion, rather than overall psi perform-
This work was supported by SRI International and by the John E. Fetzer Foundation. We wish to express our appreciation
to Edwin C. May of SRI International, who recognized the importance of this work and helped make it possible. We are also
grateful to Robert L. Morris, John Palmer and K. Ramakrishna Rao for providing additional information concerning several
of the studies used in the meta-analysis, and to H. Kanthamani for valuable comments during the initial phase of this study.
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ance. The effect size index is the correlation coeffi-
cient between the two variables and the subject is the
unit of analysis.
Method
Retrieval of Studies
We attempted to retrieve all English-language
studies of the relationship between extraversion and
performance in experimental ESP tasks. The source
of studies includes the bibliographies of three narra-
tive reviews (Eysenck, 1967; Palmer, 1977; Sargent,
1981) and inspection of the principal English-lan-
guage outlets for publication of parapsychological
research, including the Journal of Parapsychology, Jour-
nal of the American Society for Psychical Research, Journal
of the Society for Psychical Research, and Research in
Parapsychology. In addition, we conducted a com-
puter search of Psychological Abstracts using the key-
words "extraversion," "extroversion," "introver-
sion," "intraversion," "sociability," and "outgoing."
Investigator Definition
For the purpose of the meta-analysis, we defined
independent investigators as investigators who have
not worked with other investigators in the data base.
In cases of multiple authorship, studies are identified
by the senior author of the earliest publication in the
data base. For example, studies by Kanthamani
(1966), Kanthamani and Rao (1972) and Krishna and
Rao (1981) are all indentified as Kanthamani studies.
While Kanthamani and Krishna did not work to-
gether, they share Rao as a coauthor and are therefore
considered to represent a single investigator set.
Similarly, studies by Humphrey (1945, 1951) and by
Nicol and Humphrey (1953, 1955) are all indentified
as Humphrey studies. Laboratory affiliation was not
used to identify independent investigators since sev-
eral investigators worked in different laboratories
and several generations of investigators worked in
one laboratory.
Procedural Features
Besides bibliographical data identifying the inves-
tigator, publication source and date, we coded vari-
ous procedural, sampling, and statistical features for
each study. The procedural features include the type
of ESP task (forced-choice or free-response), test set-
ting (individual or group testing), ESP mode (telepa-
thy, clairvoyance, precognition, mixed), and amount
of feedback in the ESP task. Procedural features rele-
vant to assessing research quality are described in the
following section. Sampling and statistical features
coded include the number of subjects, the subject
population used, the instrument used for measuring
extraversion, and the inferential statistics reported
for testing the relationship between ESP performance
and extraversion.
Criteria for Assessing Research Quality
Methodological variables were coded in terms of
procedural descriptions (or their absence) in the re-
search reports. This approach was used in an earlier
meta-analysis of the ESP ganzfeld domain (Honor-
ton, 1985), resulting in study quality ratings that were
generally in agreement (r26 = . 77, p = 106) with inde-
pendent "flaw" ratings by an outside critic (Hyman,
1985). Two sets of criteria were used. One set assessed
threats to the validity of the ESP measure. The other
set assessed threats to the validity of the relationship
between the ESP and extraversion measures.
The ESP quality analysis includes four criteria.
One point was given (or withheld) for each of the
following:
Control against sensory leakage. Credit was given to
GESP (telepathy) studies if the report specified that
each of the following criteria were met: sender and
receiver were located in separate rooms, the test situ-
ation prohibited auditory or other cues from sender
to receiver, the sender and receiver were monitored
by experimenters, and in free-response studies in-
volving subject judging, duplicate target sets were
employed. Credit was given to clairvoyance studies
if the report specified that cues from the targets were
prohibited by means of physical distance, screens, or
opaque packaging. Precognition studies were consid-
ered to be immune to sensory leakage problems.
Randomization. Studies received credit if random
number tables, random number generators, or me-
chanical shufflers were used to randomize the tar-
gets. Studies using informal methods of randomiza-
tion such as hand shuffling and dice throwing, or in
which there was no randomization, received no
credit. Reports failing to identify the method of ran-
domization received no credit.
Duplicate recording. Studies reporting duplicate re-
cording of targets and responses received credit. Re-
ports that failed to describe their data recording pro-
cedures and those in which data recording was per-
formed by a single experimenter, received no credit.
Duplicate scoring. Studies reporting duplicate
checking of hits received credit. Reports that failed to
describe their scoring procedures and those in which
scoring was performed by a single experimenter, re-
ceived no credit.
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Figure 1. Stem-and-leaf frequency distribution of cor-
relation coefficients between extraversion and ESP per-
formance (N = 47).
- . 4
4
- . 3
6
- . 2
5 2
- . 1
74 1
- . 0
9 2 0 0
. 0
0589
. 1
00122788
. 2
0 3 3 8
. 3
004445788
. 4
06699
. 5
3 4 8
. 6
6 7
. 7
. 8
. 9
1
We assessed two aspects of methodology that
could result in a spurious correlation between ESP
scores and measures of extraversion: advance speci-
fication of the criteria used to define extraversion and
the order in which the ESP task and extraversion
measure were administered.
A priori definition of extraversion. An inflated rela-
tionship between ESP and extraversion scores could
occur if the investigator selected an "optimal" extrav-
ersion/introversion breakdown after observing the
data, without correcting for multiple analysis. We
coded studies as to whether the classification of ex-
traversion/introversion appeared to be predeter-
mined or post hoc. No credit was given for studies
using nonstandard classifications (e.g., 1 sd, median
split, etc.) unless the report explicitly stated that the
method of classification was preplanned.
Order of administration of extraversion and ESP meas-
ures. A spurious correlation between ESP scores and
extraversion could arise if subjects' responses on the
extraversion scale were influenced by knowledge of
their performance in the ESP task. There is some
evidence that subjects' responses to psychological
tests may be influenced by feedback concerning their
ESP performance (Palmer & Lieberman, 1975). We
coded studies as to whether the extraversion scale
was given before or after the ESP test. This informa-
tion was available for 45 of the 60 studies.
Meta-Analysis of Correlation Coefficients
We combined correlations across independent
studies using the procedures described by Hedges
and Olkin (1985) and Rosenthal (1984). All statistics
were converted to indices of association; t tests were
converted to point-biserials and phi coefficients were
computed from 2 x 2 contingency tables.1 We esti-
mated unreported correlations from the reported p
values (with results reported only as "nonsignificant"
obtained in 13 cases set equal to .00). The signs of the
correlations were adjusted if necessary to insure that
positive correlations reflect positive relationships be-
tween extraversion and ESP performance. The corre-
lations were pooled across studies but within catego-
ries based on methodological features associated
with the studies. The correlations were transformed
to their Fisher's z equivalents, weighted by their df,
and averaged. We determined the two-tailed signifi-
cance levels and 95% confidence intervals (CIs;
Hedges and Olkin, 1985). Finally, we conducted chi-
square tests of homogeneity (Hedges and Olkin, 1985;
Rosenthal, 1984) and transformed mean zs back to the
r metric.
The chi-square homogeneity test assesses the con-
sistency of study outcomes, providing a quantitative
index of replicability. A set of studies are exact repli-
cates if their effect sizes are identical. They are homo-
geneous if the variability of effect sizes can be ex-
plained by sampling error. A significant but nonho-
mogeneous effect indicates the presence of moderat-
ing variables and homogeneity tests are used to iden-
tify moderating variables by subdividing studies into
smaller, methodologically similar subgroups
(Hedges, 1987).
Results
We retrieved 60 independent studies contained in
35 publications by 17 independent investigators. The
studies were reported over a span of 38 years, be-
tween 1945 and 1983. The data base comprises 2,963
subjects. Forty-five studies involve ESP card-guess-
ing tasks or similar forced-choice tasks. Fourteen
studies employed free-response ESP tasks, and one
involved a remote physiological influence task.
The unweighted correlations range from -0.44 to
.91. Figure 1 shows a stem-and-leaf display (Tukey,
1977) of the correlation coefficients. (The 13 studies
that were assigned r's of zero because of insufficient
information are omitted). Unlike other methods of
1Two studies provided only trial-based tests (CRd). Cor-
relations were estimated for these studies using a method
for estimating effect sizes from critical ratios reported by
McCarthy & Schechter (1986). Their method provides an
estimate of Cohen's d which we then converted to the r
metric.
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Table 1. Summary of Extraversion-ESP Meta-Analysis
Number of Number of
independent independent
effect sizes investigators
Total
number of
subjects
Mean
effect size
(1)
95% confidence
interval
From To
z
P
x2(k-1)
Overall, all studies
60
17
2963
.09
.05
.12
4.63
.000004
126.21*
Studies with r available
47
14
1853
.14
.10
.19
5.90
<. 000001
115.91*
Forced-choice guessing tasks 45
13
2169
.06
.02
.11
2.86
.0042
92.82*
Individual testing
21
11
920
.15
.09
.22
4.54
.000006
42.99*
Group testing
24
8
1249
-. 00
-. 06
.05
-0.12
.904
37.35
Free-response imaging tasksª 14
4
612
.20
.12
.28
4.82
.0000015
23.40*
Individual testing
12
3
512
.20
.11
.29
4.46
.0000083
15.85
Group testing
2
1
100
.19
-. 01
.37
1.83
.067
7.53*
Notes. r is the weighted average correlation coefficient (Hed ges & Olkin, 1985). k represents the number of independent
effect sizes. X- is the within group homogeneity statistic (Rosenthal, 1984).
displaying frequency distributions, the stem-and-leaf
plot retains the numerical data precisely. (Turned on
its side, the stem-and-leaf plot is a histogram.) Each
number includes a stem and one or more leaves. For
example, the stem .2 is followed by leaves of 0, 3, 3, 8
representing r's of .20, .23, .23, and .28.
The meta-analysis is summarized in Table 1. The
study grouping is identified in the first column. Col-
umns two through four show, respectively, the num-
ber of studies, investigators, and subjects. The mean
weighted effect size (r) is shown in column five and
columns six and seven show, respectively, the lower
and upper 95% (CI) for the effect size. The cumula-
tive z-score and its associated two-tailed p-value are
shown in columns eight and nine. The chi-square
homogeneity statistic is presented in the last column.
Overall Results
The results for all 60 studies are shown in the first
row. The mean weighted r is 0.09 (z = 4.63,
p = . 000004, two-tailed). The 95% CI is an r from .05
to .12. While significant, the study effect sizes are
nonhomogeneous (x259 = 126.21, p <. 05). The second
row shows the same analysis, omitting the 13 studies
that were assigned r's of zero.
Forced-choice Studies
The ESP/extraversion correlations for the 45
forced-choice (FC) studies are presented in row three
of Table 1. These studies were contributed by 13
independent investigators and include 2169 subjects.
The mean weighted ris .06 (z = 2.86, p = . 0042, 95% CI
from .02 to .11). The FC correlations are significantly
nonhomogeneous (x 4 = 92.82, p < . 05).
FC studies involving individual testing. Twenty-one
of the FC studies involved individual testing (Table
1, row 4). These studies were performed by 11 inde-
pendent investigators and included 920 subjects. The
mean weighted r is .15 (z = 4.54, p = . 000006, 95% CI
from .09 to .22). The correlations are nonhomogene-
ous (x 20 = 42.99, p < . 05).
FC studies involving group testing. The remaining 24
FC studies involved group testing. These studies
were conducted by eight independent investigators
and included 1249 subjects. They yield a mean
weighted r of -0.00 (z = - 0.12, p = . 904, 95% CI from -
.06 to .05). The group FC studies are homogeneous
(x 23 = 37.35, p > .05). Thus, the FC studies involving
group testing yielded uniformly null correlations be-
tween ESP performance and extraversion.
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Individual versus group testing. Evidence for a rela-
tionship between extraversion and forced-choice ESP
performance is limited to FC studies involving indi-
vidual testing. The difference between the ESP/ex-
traversion correlations for individual and group test-
ing is significant (Cohen's q = . 14, z = 3.47, p = . 00052,
two-tailed).
Free-response Studies
The results for the 14 free-response (FR) studies are
shown in row six of Table 1. The FR studies were
contributed by four independent investigators and
included 612 subjects. The mean weighted r is .20 (z
= 4.82, p = . 0000015, two-tailed). The 95% CI is an r
from .12 to .28. The overall FR outcomes, while highly
significant, are significantly nonhomogeneous (x 13 =
23.40, p <. 05). This nonhomogeneity is due to a mod-
erating variable, test setting.
Free-response studies involving individual testing.
Twelve FR studies employed individual testing (Ta-
ble 1, row 7). These studies were contributed by three
independent investigators and include 512 subjects.
The results are both significant and homogeneous.
The mean weighted r is .20 (z = 4.46, p = . 0000083,
95% CI from .11 to .29, x 11 = 15.85 p > .05).
Free-response studies involving group testing. Only
two FR studies involved group testing (Table 1, row
8). Both studies were contributed by the same inves-
tigator. The mean weighted r is .19 (z = 1.83, p = . 067,
95% CI from -. 01 to .37). The results are significantly
nonhomogeneous (x 1 = 7.53, p < . 05).
Free-response versus Forced-choice
Studies
The mean correlation between ESP performance
and extraversion is significantly larger in studies with
free-response ESP tests than in those using forced-
choice tests (Cohen's q = . 14, z = 3.11, p = . 0019, two-
tailed).
Quality Analysis of Forced-Choice Studies
Sensory leakage. Thirty-one of the FC studies de-
scribe the use of methods that satisfy our criteria for
adequate control against sensory leakage in the ESP
task. The ESP /extraversion relationship is not signifi-
cant for these studies; the mean weighted r is .04 (z =
1.47, p = . 142, two-tailed). The ESP/extraversion rela-
tionship is significant in the 14 FC studies that are
amenable to sensory leakage (r = . 14, z = 3.20, p =
.0014, two-tailed). The difference between the two
correlations is significant (Cohen's q = -. 10, z = - 2.03,
p = . 042, two-tailed).
Randomization. Thirteen FC studies satisfy our cri-
teria for randomization. The mean weighted r for
these studies is .13 (z = 2.27, p = . 023). Thirty-two FC
studies failed our randomization criteria; they
yielded a mean weighted r of .05 (z = 2.13, p = . 033,
two-tailed). The ESP/extraversion correlation is non-
significantly lower in these studies than in studies
using formal randomization methods (Cohen's q =
.08, z = 1.40, p = . 162, two-tailed).
Duplicate recording. Six FC studies employed dupli-
cate recording of targets and responses. The mean
weighted r for these studies is .31 (z = 3.52, p = . 00043,
two-tailed). The 39 studies without duplicate record-
ing yielded a mean weighted r of .05 (z = 2.01, p =
.0444, two-tailed). The ESP/extraversion relationship
is significantly stronger in studies with duplicate re-
cording (Cohen's q = . 27, z = 3.02, p = . 0025).
Duplicate checking. Eighteen FC studies reported
using methods for duplicate checking of hits. These
studies are associated with a mean weighted r of .27
(z = 5.72, p < 10-6, two-tailed). The 27 FC studies that
did not use methods for duplicate checking yielded a
nonsignificant rof .01 (z = 0.23, p =. 59). The difference
between the two correlations is significant (Cohen's
q = . 27, z = 5.20, p < 10-6, two-tailed).
A priori definition of extraversion. Thirty-seven FC
studies satisfied our criteria for a priori definition of
extraversion. These studies had a mean weighted r of
.05 (z = 2.20, p = . 028). The remaining eight FC studies
failed our criteria for a priori definition of extraversion
(7: = . 10, z = 2.00, p = . 046, two-tailed). The two
correlations do not differ significantly (Cohen's q =
-. 05, z = 0.92, p = . 358, two-tailed).
Order of administration of extraversion and ESP meas-
ures. Evidence for a relationship between forced-
choice ESP performance and extraversion is entirely
dependent upon the outcomes of studies in which
extraversion was measured after the ESP test (N = 18
studies, r = . 17, z = 3.51, p = . 00045). The correlation
between FC ESP performance and extraversion in
studies in which extraversion was measured before
the ESP task is not significant (N = 16 studies, r = -
.02, z =- 0.78, p = . 782) and the difference between the
two correlations is significant (Cohen's q = . 19, z =
3.58, p = . 00034, two-tailed). This difference is not
attributable to methodological features of the two
groups such as test setting, the extraversion measure,
or ESP mode.
Degree of ESP feedback is documented in nine of
the 18 studies that measured extraversion after the
ESP task and subjects received feedback of their ESP
performance in each of these studies (r = 29, z = 4.59,
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Table 2. Forced-choice Outcomes by Investigator
Investigator
N studies
N subjects
*
Z
p
Astrom - ?
1
48
.24
1.63
.103
Casper - A
1
20
.53
2.46
.014
Green
2
148
.00
0.00
.500
?
1
108
.00
0.00
.500
A
1
40
.00
0.00
.500
Humphrey
6
138
.26
2.86
.0042
?
3
55
.27
1.84
.0658
A
3
83
.22
1.95
.051
Kanthamani
7
301
.21
3.59
.00033
?
1
60
.00
0.00
.500
A
3
108
.38
4.03
.000056
B
3
133
.02
0.25
.400
McElroy - A
1
31
.00
0.00
.500
Nash
8
207
.14
1.92
.054
2
2
60
.29
2.22
.026
A
6
147
.08
0.86
.390
Nielsen
3
60
-. 04
-0.29
.771
A
2
48
.00
0.00
.500
B
1
12
-. 23
-0.69
.755
Sargent
3
85
.17
1.46
.144
B
2
40
-. 02
-0.12
.548
M
1
45
.31
2.07
.038
Shields - ?
2
99
.30
2.98
.0029
Shrager - B
2
76
.18
1.48
.139
Szczygielski - A
1
17
-. 36
-1.42
.922
Thalbourne - B
8
939
-. 04
-1.28
.90
Overall Forced-choice z by investigators = 3.49, p = . 00048, two-tailed,
X"12 = 41.20, p <. 05
Extraversion measured before ESP test (5 investigators): z by investigators = - 0.71, p = . 761, two-tailed, x= = 3.97, p>.05
Extraversion measured after ESP test (8 investigators): z by investigators = 3.51, p = . 00045, two-tailed, X= _ = 17.29, p <. 05
Notes. r is the weighted average correlation coefficient (Hedges & Olkin, 1985). The letters B and A following the investigator's
name indicate whether the extraversion/introversion measure was administed before (B) or after (A) the ESP task. Studies
where this information is not available are indicated by a question mark (?). Testing order was mixed (M) in one study. x is
the within group homogeneity statistic (Rosenthal, 1984).
p = . 0000045, two-tailed). Seven of the nine studies
where feedback is undocumented were group stud-
ies which usually involve delayed feedback or no
feedback at all. These studies yield a nonsignificant
correlation between performance and extraversion
(7 = . 05, z = 0.64, p = . 522, two-tailed) which is signifi-
cantly lower than that for the studies known to in-
volve feedback (Cohen's q = . 25, z = 2.54, p = . 011,
two-tailed). The relationship between forced-choice
ESP performance and extraversion thus appears to be
artifactual.
Patterns over time. The forced-choice studies were
reported between 1945 and 1982. There is a significant
decline in the magnitude of the ESP/extraversion
relationship over this period (r = - 40, t = - 2.89, 43 df,
p =. 006, two-tailed). Moreover, methodological qual-
ity, as assessed in terms of threats to the validity of
the ESP measure, has not improved over the survey
period (r = . 01, t = 0.03, p = . 976, two-tailed). These
results are contrary to the patterns found in meta-
analyses of three other parapsychological domains,
which exhibit constant effect sizes and significant
.
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methodological improvement over time (Honorton,
1985; Honorton & Ferrari, 1989; Radin & Nelson,
1989). There has been substantial improvement with
regard to threats to the validity of the ESP/extraver-
sion relationship; more recently reported studies
have generally involved administration of the extrav-
ersion measure before the ESP task (r = . 78, t = 7.02,
32 df, p<106). These findings are consistent with the
conclusion that the FC ESP/extraversion relationship
is artifactual.
FC Outcomes by Investigator
The FC study outcomes by investigator are shown
in Table 2. The order of ESP and extraversion testing
is indicated following the investigator's name for
investigators with single studies or multiple studies
involving uniform testing order. Separate break-
downs are given for investigators with studies in-
volving different testing orders. Significant outcomes
were obtained by four of the 13 FC investigators
(31%); using the investigator as the unit of analysis,
the overall results are significant (z = 3.49, p =. 00048,
two-tailed) but nonhomogeneous (x-12
= 41.20,
p < . 05). The effect of testing order accounts for the
overall significance and nonhomogeneity. The five
investigators who measured extraversion before the
ESP task have outcomes that are nonsignificant and
homogeneous (z = - 0.71, p = . 761, two-tailed, x24 =
3.97, p > .05), while the outcomes of the eight investi-
gators who measured extraversion after the ESP task
are significant and nonhomogeneous (z = 3.51, p =
.00045, two-tailed, x27 = 17.29, p < . 05). Thus, the
impact of ESP/extraversion testing order is consis-
tent across investigators and is not attributable to
idiosyncratic research styles or other characteristics
of a single prolific investigator.
Quality Analysis of Free-response Studies
Sensory leakage. All 14 FR studies satisfied our
criteria for adequacy of control against sensory leak-
age.
Randomization. Nine FR studies satisfied our crite-
ria for randomization (r = . 38, z = 4.74, p = . 0000022,
two-tailed). Five FR studies employed informal ran-
domization procedures or failed to document their
method of randomization (r = . 14, z = 2.86, p = . 0042,
two-tailed). The difference between the two correla-
tions is significant (Cohen's q = . 26, z = 2.86, p = . 0042,
two-tailed).
Duplicate recording. Thirteen of the 14 FR studies
employed duplicate recording methods (r = . 29,
z = 4.62, p = . 0000039, two-tailed).
Duplicate checking. All 14 FR studies employed du-
plicate checking methods.
A priori definition of extraversion. Eleven FR studies
satisfied our criteria for a priori definition of extraver-
sion (r = . 16, z = 3.72, p = . 0002, two-tailed). Three
studies failed to document their basis of classification
(r = . 48, z = 4.01, p = . 000061, two-tailed). The two cor-
relations differ significantly (Cohen's q = . 36, z = 2.77,
p = 0.0056, two-tailed).
Order of administration of extraversion and ESP meas-
ures. The extraversion scale was administered before
the ESP task in 11 of the FR studies (r = . 21, z = 4.57,
p = . 000005, two-tailed). The remaining three FR
studies failed to report the order in which the ESP and
extraversion measures were given (r = . 15, z = 1.64,
p =. 101, two-tailed). The difference between the two
correlations is not significant (Cohen's q = . 06, z
= 0.62, p = . 532). Thus, for the free-response studies,
the evidence for a relationship between ESP perform-
ance and extraversion is not susceptible to explana-
tion in terms of an order artifact.
Patterns over time. The free-response studies were
reported between 1960 and 1982. Unlike the forced-
choice studies, the magnitude of the ESP/extraver-
sion relationship has increased over time, though not
significantly so (r = . 19, t = 0.66, 12 df, p = . 524, two-
tailed). The methodological quality of the free-re-
sponse studies has also improved over time (r = . 36,
t = 1.35, 12 df, p = . 202, two-tailed).
Confirmation of Differences in Research
Quality in relation to Test Setting
Honorton & Ferrari (1989), in a meta-analysis of
forced-choice precognition experiments, found that
studies involving individual testing were of signifi-
cantly higher methodological quality than studies
involving group testing (t = 3.08, 137 df,p = . 003, two-
tailed). We have confirmed this finding in the
ESP/extraversion meta-analysis (t = 2.27, 39 df,
p = . 015, one-tailed). This analysis excludes the 12
precognition studies which overlap with the earlier
meta-analysis.
Since we have determined that there is no ESP/ex-
traversion relationship in the forced-choice studies
when the effects of task order are considered, the
remaining analyses are restricted to the free-response
studies.
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Table 3. Free-response Outcomes by Investigator
Investigator
N studies
N subjects
T
Z
P
Bellis & Morris
1
23
.47
2.26
.024
Braud
2
100
.19
1.86
.063
Marsh
1
311
.13
2.30
.021
Sargent
10
178
.31
3.85
00012
z by investigators = 5.11, p = 3 x 107, two-tailed
x22 =2.51, p >.05
Notes. r is the weighted average correlation coefficient (Hedges & Olkin, 1985). x2 is the within group homogeneity statistic
(Rosenthal, 1984).
Consistency across Investigators
Table 3 shows the overall FR results by investiga-
tor. Three of the four investigators have significant
ESP/extraversion correlations and the results of the
fourth investigator (Braud) approach significance.
The z by investigator is 5.11, a result that should arise
by chance less than one time in 3.3 million. The results
are homogeneous across investigators (x+3 = 2.51, p
> .05). Although 10 of the 14 FR studies were contrib-
uted by one investigator (Sargent), evidence for the
relationship between free-response ESP performance
and extraversion is not dependent upon that investi-
gator. When Sargent's work is eliminated, the results
of the three remaining investigators still strongly sup-
ports a relationship between ESP performance and
extraversion (z = 3.35, p = 0.0008, two-tailed). There-
fore, we conclude that the ESP/extraversion relation-
ship is consistent across investigators.
Extraversion Measures
Each FR investigator used a different scale for
measuring extraversion. Marsh used the Bernreuter
Personality Inventory (Super, 1942); Sargent and his
group used the Cattell 16PF (Cattell, Eber & Tatsuoka,
1970); Braud and Bellis & Morris used scales con-
structed by the investigators (with no psychometric
validation provided). It is impossible to isolate the
effects of the instruments for measuring extraversion
from the ensemble of procedures and research styles
associated with the investigators. All that can be said
is that a relationship between extraversion and ESP
performance is evident in studies using four different
measures of extraversion.
Selective Reporting
In order to assess the vulnerability of these studies
to selective reporting, we used Rosenthal's (1984)
"Fail-safe N" statistic to estimate the number of unre-
ported studies averaging null outcomes necessary to
reduce the known data base to nonsigificance. The
Fail-safe N is 140 studies. In other words, if we were
to assume that the observed outcomes arise from
selective reporting, it would be necessary to postulate
10 unreported studies averaging null outcomes for
each reported study. Therefore, we conclude that the
free-response ESP/extraversion relationship cannot
be explained on the basis of selective reporting.
Power Analysis
The FR mean r of 20 is equivalent to an average
ESP scoring advantage for extraverts over introverts
of 0.4 standard deviations. The FR studies average
sample size is 44 subjects and the likelihood of detect-
ing a correlation of .2 at the five percent significance
level with this sample size-the statistical power -- is
37 percent (Cohen, 1977, p. 87). Thus, in a sample of
14 studies, the expected number of statistically sig-
nificant studies is 5.2; the actual number of significant
studies is seven (exact binomial probability, with
p = 37 & q = . 63, = (23, one-tailed). Thus, the ob-
served rate of significant outcomes is consistent with
a correlation of .2.
Achievement of statistical significance, assuming
a correlation of .2, is essentially a coin toss with
sample sizes less than 68 subjects; a sample size of 180
is necessary to achieve 85 percent power.
In the following section, we explore the predictive
validity of the ESP/extraversion meta-analysis by
comparing the meta-analytic estimate to the outcome
of a new data set.
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Table 4. ESP/Extraversion Correlations by Experimenter in the PRL Novice Series
Experimenter
N Subjects
T
Z
Experimenter EI Score
Honorton
41
.27
1.71
101
Quant
69
.29
2.38
103
Derr
22
.03
0.68
81
Berger
13
-. 37
-1.18
115
Varvoglis
21
.08
0.32
133
Schechter
7
-. 05
-0.10
125
Ferrari
10
-. 20
-0.54
133
Schlitz
7
.15
0.92
69
Note. r is the weighted average correlation coefficient (Hed ges & Olkin, 1985).
A New Confirmation
Extraversion data is available for 221 of the 241
subjects in a series of ESP ganzfeld studies reported
by Honorton, Berger, Varvoglis, Quant, Derr, Han-
sen, Schechter & Ferrari (1990) and conducted at the
Psychophysical Research Laboratories (PRL) in
Princeton, N.J. The experimental procedures are de-
scribed in detail in the Honorton, et al. (1990) report.
Subjects
The subjects were 131 women and 90 men. Their
average age is 37 years (sd = 11.7). This is a well-edu-
cated group; the mean formal education is 15.5 years
(sd = 2.0) and belief in psi is strong in this population.
On a seven-point scale where "1" indicates strong
disbelief and "7" indicates strong belief in psi, the
mean is 6.20 (sd = 1.03). Personal experiences sugges-
tive of psi were reported by 88 percentof the subjects;
eighty percent reported ostensible telepathic experi-
ences. Eighty percent have had some training in
meditation or other techniques involving internal fo-
cus of attention. One hundred and sixty-three sub-
jects contributed a single ESP ganzfeld session and 58
contributed multiple sessions.
Extraversion Measure
Extraversion was measured using the continuous
scores of the Extraversion/Introversion (EI) Scale in
Form F of the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI;
Briggs & Myers, 1957). The MBTI was not used in any
of the meta-analysis studies. The MBTI EI Scale is
constructed so that scores below 100 indicate extrav-
ersion and scores above 100 indicate introversion.
(For consistency with the meta-analysis, we have
reversed the signs so that positive correlations reflect
a positive relationship between ESP performance and
extraversion.) The mean EI score for the PRL subjects
is 100.36 (sd = 25.18).
ESP Measure
ESP performance was measured using the stand-
ardized ratings of the target and decoys (Stanford's
z-scores; Stanford and Sargent, 1983). Stanford z's
were averaged for subjects with multiple sessions.
Results
Overall results. The correlation between ESP per-
formance and extraversion in the PRL series is signifi-
cant (r = . 18, 219 df, t = 2.67, p = . 008, two-tailed, 95%
CI from .05 to .. 30). This outcome is very close to the
meta-analytic estimate for free-response studies
(r = . 20) and the difference between the two correla-
tions is nonsignificant (Cohen's q = . 02, z = - 0.26,
p = . 793, two-tailed).
Ganzfeld Novices. The results are similar if we re-
strict our analysis to the five PRL Novice series with
inexperienced subjects who each completed a single
ganzfeld session. MBTI data is available for 190 of the
205 Novices and the mean weighted r for the five
series is .17 (z = 2.25, p = . 024, two-tailed, 95% CI from
.02 to .31). The ESP/extraversion correlations are ho-
mogeneous across the five series (x 4 = 2.88, p > .05).
Eleven subjects in the first Novice series (Series 101)
completed the MBTI between six and eighteen
months after their ESP ganzfeld session and we did
not maintain records of their identity. However, the
results are essentially the same when this series is
eliminated. The mean weighted r for the remaining
four Novice series is .19 (z = 2.30, p = . 021, two-tailed,
95% CI from .03 to .34).
Outcome by experimenter. Eight experimenters con-
tributed to the PRL data base (Honorton, et al., 1990).
Table 4 shows the ESP/extraversion correlation by
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EXTRAVERSION & ESP: A META-ANALYSIS & NEW CONFIRMATION
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experimenter for the five Novice series. The mean
weighted r for the eight experimenters is .16 (z = 2.09,
p = . 037, two-tailed, 95% CI from .01 to .30). The
results are homogeneous across the eight experi-
menters (x 7 = 6.43, p > .05).
Outcome in relation to EI status of experimenter. It is
possible that the relationship between ESP perform-
ance and extraversion is moderated by personality
characteristics of the experimenter. The last column
of Table 4 shows the MBTI EI scores for each experi-
menter. Only two experimenters (Derr and Schlitz)
are extraverts. Two others (Honorton and Quant) are
borderline introverts. While the above analyses indi-
cate that the ESP/extraversion correlation is consis-
tent across experimenters, there is a nonsignificant
tendency for the relationship to be stronger in the
data of less introverted experimenters (r = . 47, 6 df, p
= . 235, two-tailed).
Combined Estimate of the
Relationship between
Free-response ESP Performance
and Extraversion
Combining the new confirmation with the meta-
analysis, the overall mean weighted r is .19 (z = 5.50,
p = 3.8 x 108, 95% CI from .13 to .26). The "Fail-safe
N" for the combined estimate is 181 studies, or a ratio
of 12 unreported studies averaging null effects for
each known study. Four of the five investigators have
overall significant outcomes and the outcomes are
homogeneous across investigators x24 = 6.03, p
>.05).
Discussion
The Meta-Analysis
Forced-choice studies. The meta-analysis challenges
the conclusions from earlier narrative reviews of the
relationship between extraversion and forced-choice
ESP performance (Eysenck, 1967; Palmer, 1977; Sar-
gent, 1981). The apparent relationship between ex-
traversion and ESP performance in these studies ap-
pears to be due to the influence of subjects' knowl-
edge of their ESP performance on their subsequent
responses to the extraversion measures. Evidence for
a relationship between ESP and extraversion occurs
only when extraversion was measured after the ESP
test; no evidence of an ESP/extraversion relationship
is found in studies where extraversion was measured
before the ESP task.
Evidence for a nonzero effect in the forced-choice
studies is also limited to the subset of studies involv-
ing ESP testing procedures that were vulnerable to
potential sensory leakage. There is reason to believe,
however, that this may result from a procedural con-
found: six the eight studies in this subgroup for which
information on the order of testing is available also
involved extraversion testing following ESP feed-
back.
The apparent biasing effect of ESP feedback prob-
ably arises from one of two possibilities. Awareness
of "success" or "failure" may lead subjects to later
perceive themselves as more extraverted or intro-
verted. Or, the problem may arise from an experi-
menter expectancy effect (Rosenthal & Rubin, 1978),
in which subjects respond to the investigator's expec-
tations that extraverts are more successful in ESP
tasks than introverts. Obviously, further research will
be necessary to clarify the problem.
The existence of this problem, however, necessar-
ily arouses concern over the viability of reported
relationships between ESP performance and other
personality factors such as neuroticism (Palmer,
1977). Much of the research in these areas was con-
ducted by the same investigators, and it is likely that
similar methods were used. We believe that conclu-
sions regarding the relationship between ESP per-
formance and other personality variables should be
suspended until the relevant study domains can be
examined with respect to this problem.
Free-response studies. The meta-analysis does sup-
port the existence of a relationship between extraver-
sion and free-response ESP performance. The free-re-
sponse studies are not amenable to explanation in
terms of an order artifact or other identifiable threats
to validity. The overall correlation of .20 would be
expected to occur only about one time in 674,000 by
chance. Three of the four investigators contributing
to this data base obtained significant ESP/extraver-
sion relationships, and the fourth investigator's re-
sults approach significance. The correlations are ho-
mogeneous across investigators, and across the larg-
est grouping of studies in which subjects were tested
individually. The effect remains highly significant
even when 71 percent of the studies, contributed by
one investigator, are eliminated from consideration.
Thus, the relationship seems to be robust. Estimation
of the filedrawer problem (Rosenthal, 1984), indicates
that it would be necessary to postulate 10 unreported
studies averaging null results for every retrieved
study in order to account for the observed effect on
the basis of selective reporting.
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The New Confirmation
The results of the confirmation, involving a new
set of investigators and a new scale of extraversion,
support the meta-analytic findings and increase their
generalizability. The relationship between free-re-
sponse ESP performance and extraversion now spans
833 subjects and five independent investigator teams.
The homogeneity of the effect across the eight experi-
menters in the confirmatory study further increases
our confidence that the effect is replicable and is not
dependent upon unknown characteristics of individ-
ual investigators. A nonsignificant trend in the data
does suggest that the ESP/extraversion relationship
may, to some extent, be moderated by the experi-
menter's extravertedness and it may be advisable for
future investigators to record and report extraver-
sion/introversion scores of the experimenters.
The Predictive Validity of Meta-Analysis
Meta-analysis is a powerful tool for summarizing
existing evidence. It enables more precise estimation
of the significance and magnitude of behavioral ef-
fects than has been possible with traditional narrative
reviews, and is useful in identifying moderating vari-
ables. In the present case, meta-analytic techniques
revealed a serious source of bias that had been over-
looked in earlier narrative reviews of the ESP/extrav-
ersion domain. Moreover, the meta-analysis identi-
fied a subset of the domain that is not amenable to the
discovered bias and provided an estimate of the mag-
nitude of the relationship between ESP and extraver-
sion in that subset.
Ultimately, the usefulness of meta-analysis will be
judged by its ability to predict new outcomes and in
this regard we consider the results of the confirma-
tion study to be especially noteworthy. The correla-
tion between ESP performance and extraversion in
the confirmation study is very close to that predicted
by the meta-analysis. This is the second test of the
predictive validity of meta-analysis in parapsy-
chological problem areas; we have previously re-
ported that ESP ganzfeld performance in a new series
of studies (Honorton, et al., 1990), closely matched the
outcomes of earlier studies in a meta-analysis
(Honorton, 1985). Predictability is the hallmark of
successful science and these findings lead us to be
optimistic concerning the prospect that parapsychol-
ogy may be approaching this more advanced stage of
development.
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Journal of Parapsychology, Vol. 50. December 1986
META-ANALYTIC PROCEDURES AND THE
NATURE OF REPLICATION: THE
GANZFELD DEBATE
BY ROBERT ROSENTHAL
ABSTRACT: This paper is a commentary on the valuable debate between Charles
Honorton (1985) and Ray Hyman (1985) about the evidence for psi in the ganzfeld
situation. Their debate was a creative, constructive, and task-oriented dialogue that
served admirably to sharpen the issues involved. In my commentary I focus on the
concept of replication, distinguishing the troublesome older view with a more use-
ful alternative. Specific issues related to replication are discussed including prob-
lems of multiple testing, subdividing studies, weighting replications, and problems
of small effects. The earlier meta-analytic work is summarized, evaluated, and com-
pared with a meta-analysis of a different controversial arca. Rival hypotheses of
procedural and statistical types are discussed, and a tentative inference is offered.
The conclusion calls for wider use of newer views of the success of replication.
Science in general and parapsychological inquiry in particular
have been well served by the recent ganzfeld debate between
Charles Honorion (1985) and Ray Hyman (1985) as organized by
the Journal's editor, K. Ramakrishna Rao. Two serious and highly
knowledgeable scholars have invested a great amount of time, en-
ergy, and creative thought to produce a debate that is a model of
task-oriented, constructive dialogue. It is clear that the participants
have been devoted to clarifying and understanding the scientific is-
sues rather than simply to "scoring points."
As a result of their efforts we have an excellent review of the
issues to be considered in evaluating the data generated by the ganz-
feld experiments. In addition, through their meta-analytic work, we
have an enormously valuable quantitative summary of the ganzfeld
studies. In the end, Hyman and Honorton have not resolved all
their differences, nor is it likely that they will. Hyman has raised
cogent and telling questions. Honorton has answered them in co-
gent and telling terms. I am sure that Hyman will have excellent
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The preparation of this paper and the development of some of the .procedures
described within it were supported by the National Science Foundation. Much of the
summary and interpretation of the meta-analyses will be included in a paper com-
missioned by the National Academy of Sciences that is in preparation by Monica J.
Harris and Robert Rosenthal.
7

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The Journal of Parapsychology
study failed to replicate that of Smith. Such errors are made very
frequently in most areas of psychology and the other behavioral sci-
ences.
Pseudo-Successful Replications
Return now to Table [ and focus attention on cell B, the cell of
"successful replication." Suppose that two investigators both rejected
the null hypothesis at p < . 05 with both results in the same direc-
tion. Suppose further, however, that in one study the effect size r
was .90 whereas in the other study the effect size r was only .10,
significantly smaller than the r of .90 (Rosenthal & Rubin, 1982a).
In this case our interpretation is more complex. We have indeed
had a successful replication of the rejection of the null, but we have
not come even close to a successful replication of the effect size.
"Successful Replication" of Type II Error
Cell C of Table I represents the situation in which both studies
2 failed to reject the null hypothesis. Under those conditions investi-
gators might conclude that there was no relationship between the
variables investigated. Such a conclusion could be very much in er-
ror, the more so the lower the power of the two studies was low
(Cohen, 1977). If power levels of the two studies (assuming medium
effect sizes in the population) were very high, say .90 or .95, then
wo failures to obtain a significant relationship would provide evi-
dence that the effect investigated was not likely to be a very large
effect. If power calculations had been made assuming a very small
effect size, two failures to reject the null although not providing
Strong evidence for the null would at least suggest that the size of
the effect in the population was probably quite modest.
If sample sizes of the two studies failing to reject the null were
Podest so that power to detect all but the largest effects were low,
very little could be concluded from two failures to reject except that
the effect sizes were unlikely to be enormous. For example, two in-
vestigators with N's of 20 and 40, respectively, find results not sig-
nificant at p < . 05. The effect sizes phi (i.e., r for dichotomous var-
iables) were .29 and .20, respectively, and both p's were
approximately .20. The combined p of these two results, however,
is .035[z] + z)/V2 = z], and the mean effect size in the mid -. 20's
is not trivial (Rosenthal & Rubin, 1982b).
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Ganzfeld Debate-Rosenthal
TABLE 3
COMPARISON OF TWO SETS OF REPLICATIONS
Replication sets
A
B
Study 1
Study 2
Study !
Study 2
N
96
15
98
27
p (two-tailed)
.05
.05
.01
.18
z (p)
1.96
1.96
2.58
1.34
r
.20
.50
.26
.26
z(r)
.20
.55
.27
.27
Cohen's q (zr, - Zr))
.35
.00
Comparing Views of Replication
The traditional, not very useful, view of replication modeled in
Table 1 has two primary characteristics:
1. It focuses on significance level as the relevant summary statis-
tic of a study.
2. It makes its evaluation of whether replication has been suc-
cessful in a dichotomous fashion. For example, replications are suc-
cessful if both or neither p < . 05 (or .01, etc.), and they are unsuc-
cessful if one p < . 05 (or .01, etc.) and the other p > .05 (or .01,
etc.). Psychologists' reliance on a dichotomous decision procedure
accompanied by an untenable discontinuity of credibility in results
varying in p levels has been well documented (Nelson, Rosenthal, &
Rosnow, 1986; Rosenthal & Gaito, 1963, 1964).
The newer, more useful view of replication success has two pri-
mary characteristics:
1. It focuses on effect size as the more important summary sta-
tistic of a study with only a relatively minor interest in the statistical
significance level.
2. It makes its evaluation of whether replication has been suc-
cessful in a continuous fashion. For example, two studies are not
said to be successful or unsuccessful replicates of each other but,
rather, the degree of failure to replicate is specified.
Table 3 shows two sets of replications. Replication set A shows
two results both rejecting the null but with a difference in effect
sizes of .30 in units of ror .35 in units of Fisher's z transformation
of r (Cohen, 1977; Rosenthal & Rosnow, 1984; Snedecor & 'Coch-
ran, 1980). That difference, in units of r or Fisher's z is the degree
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multiple questions, multiple dependent variable's make good scien-
tific sense. However, as both Honorton (1985) and Hyman (1985)
Point out, the use of multiple dependent variables may affect the
Accuracy of the p levels computed. For example, if five dependent
Pariables are used and one of these is found to show an effect at p
g .05, it would be misleading to say that an effect has been dem-
emstrated at p < . 05. That is because the actual p of finding one p
Agnificant at .05 (or any other chosen level) increases as the number
I tests made increases. That is not a good reason to decrease the
Bariety of dependent variables used, assuming there is a good the-
oretical basis for choosing to use each one.
Alternate procedures are available. Bonferroni procedures can
Be used to adjust for the number of tests made (Rosenthal & Rubin,
(983). To overcome the conservatism of this basic approach and de-
grease Type II errors, it is possible to weight the dependent varia-
Fles according to their importance and apply a so-called ordered
Bonferroni procedure (Rosenthal & Rubin, 1984, 1985). Perhaps it
most useful, however, to apply specially developed procedures
that integrate all the information from all the dependent variables
Und obtain only a single overall test of significance and effect size
Estimate. This can be accomplished very easily so long as we have
ppeasonable estimates of the intercorrelations among the dependent
Pariables (Rosenthal & Rubin, 1986).
Subdividing Studies
An issue discussed in the ganzfeld debate has to do with the sub-
division of studies into substudies as a function of different experi-
mental procedures or individual difference variables such as sex,
Bage, degree of belief in psi effects, and the like (Schmeidler, 1968).
As long as all the data are preserved and entered into the meta-
kanalysis, no harm is done by subdividing. Indeed, subdividing is
very useful in the search for moderator variables (Rosenthal, 1984).
Subdividing could have a very biasing effect on the accuracy of
a cited p value if the overall data are subdivided in various ways,
significant results are reported for one or more substudies, and the
rest of the substudies are "thrown away." In the ordinary more
proper application of meta-analytic procedures, however, subdivid-
ing makes little difference. Consider a psi experiment with an over-
all nonsignificant effect (p = . 13, two-tailed). After the study is over,
it is noted that about half the subjects were favorable toward psi and
half were not and that there had been both female and male sub-
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Ganzfeld Debaie-Rosenthal
TABLE 4
SUBDIVISION OF A LARGER EXPERIMENT
Believing subjects
Disbelieving subjects
Two-tailed p
Z
Two-tailed p
Z
Females
.05
2.0
.62
0.5
Males
.32
1.0
.62
-0.5
Note: For the study as a whole. p was . 13 and z was 1.5 before subdividing. Positive
z's reflect results in the predicted direction; negative z's reflect results in the unpre-
dicted direction.
jects. Suppose that a subgroup of subjects, say female believers,
show a significant psi effect but the remaining groups do not. No
harm is done by reporting that fact, though an adjustment is useful
in reporting the obtained p that takes into account how many
subgroups were tested. It is essential, however, that the results of
significance tests for the nonsignificant subgroups also be entered
into the meta-analysis.
Table 4 illustrates the situation; four substudies have been
formed, only one of which was significant. When we combine the
results of the four substudies, however, we find the overall z to be
[(2.0) + (1.0) + (0.5) + (-0.5)]/V4 = 1.5, p = . 13, two-tailed. Es-
sentially, subdividing makes little difference so long as no data are
discarded. If a particular substudy showed great promise of evi-
dencing psi, nothing would prevent the investigator from conduct-
ing new studies using only the preselected experimental conditions
or types of subjects. It would also be appropriate to conduct a meta-
analysis on all the substudies that could be found that met the
promising condition. In that case, however, the initial "study of dis-
covery" should be entered with an adjustment for the fact that sev-
eral tests of significance were computed (Rosenthal & Rubin, 1983,
1984).
Flaw Effects and Weighting Replications
There are few flawless studies in the behavioral sciences. Flaws
can increase Type I or Type II errors, and the wise meta-analyst
would do well to note how well Hyman (1985) and Honorton (1985)
have searched for and evaluated flaws. For each flaw, it would be
desirable to make some estimate of how much difference it made to
the outcome. In the present debate some flaws seemed to make a
difference and others did not. When flaws matter we can adjust for
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of failure to replicate. That both studies were able to reject the null
and at exactly the same p level is simply a function of sample size.
Replication set B shows two studies with different p values, one sig-
nificant at < . 05, the other not significant. However, the two effect
size estimates are in excellent agreement. We would say, accord-
ingly, that replication set B shows more successful replication than
does replication set A.
It should be noted that the values of Table 3 were chosen so that
the combined probability of the two studies of set A would be iden-
tical to the combined probability of the two studies of set B; (z1 +
Z2)/V2 = z of 2.77, p = . 0028, one-tailed.
The Metrics of the Success of Replication
Once we adopt a view of the success of replication as a function
of similarity of effect sizes obtained, we can become more precise in
our assessments of the success of replication. Figure 1 shows the
"replication plane" generated by crossing the results of the first
study conducted (expressed in units of the effect size r) by the re-
sults of the second study conducted. All perfect replications, those
in which the effect sizes are identical in the two studies, fall on a
diagonal rising from the lower left corner (- 1.00, - 1.00) to the up-
per right corner (+1.00, + 1.00). The results of replication set B
from Table 3 are shown to fall exactly on the diagonal of successful
replication (+.26, +.26). The results of replication set A are shown
to fall somewhat above the line representing perfect replication. Fig-
ure 1 shows that although set B reflects a more successful replica-
tion than set A, the latter is also located fairly close to the line and
is, therefore, a fairly successful replication set as well.
Cohen's q. An alternative to the indexing of the success of repli-
cation by the difference between obtained effect size r's is to trans-
form the r's to Fisher's z's before taking the difference. Fisher's z
metric is distributed nearly normally and can thus be used in setting
confidence intervals and testing hypotheses about r's, whereas r's
distribution is skewed, and the more so as the population value of r
moves further from zero. Cohen's q is especially useful for testing
the significance of difference between two obtained effect size r's.
This is accomplished by means of the fact that
q
VN - 3
1
+
1
N2 - 3
is distributed as z, the standard normal deviate (Rosenthal, 1984;
Ganzfeld Debate-Rosenthal
321
-1.00 -. 80 -. 60 -. 40 -. 20 .00
.20
.40
.60
.80
1.00
1.00
.80
.60
Set A
*
-
.40
Results of second study (r)
.20
+
Set B
.00 -
-. 20
-. 40
-. 60
-. 80
- 1.00
Figure 1. The replication plane.
Rosenthal & Rubin, 1982a; Snedecor & Cochran, 1980). When there
are more than two effect size r's to be evaluated for their variability
(i.e., heterogeneity), the three references above all provide the ap-
propriate formula for computing the test of the heterogeneity of 's.
ISSUES RELATED TO REPLICATION
Multiple Testing
In ganzfeld studies, in parapsychological research more broadly,
and, indeed, in most areas of behavioral science, it is common that
more than one test of significance is computed to evaluate a re-
search hypothesis. There may, for example, be a set of several de-
pendent variables used to evaluate outcome. So long as there are
NO
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these flaws in our weighting of studies. For example, we can give
weights of zero to truly terrible studies and lowered but nonzero
weights to less than truly terrible studies. Such weighting may lead
less biased conclusions than simple discarding of studies for flaws
@Fiske, 1978; Rosenthal, 1984; Rosenthal & Rubin, 1985).
Replication Difficulty and Small Effects
Although Hyman (1985) and Honorton (1985) disagree on the
Degree of confidence warranted by the ganzfeld literature, they
agree that the results reported do not reflect an enormous magni-
oude of effect. In Cohen's (1977) terminology, the average size of
The ganzfeld effect reported by Hyman. (1985) and Honorton (1985)
& on the small side. That, of course, is not surprising. Controversial
@esearch areas are characterized by small effect sizes. For example,
in a recent review of five controversial areas of human performance
Pesearch, Harris and Rosenthal (1986) estimated the actual effect
sizes (r) to range only from .00 to .18 with a median of .10 and a
95% confidence interval ranging from .02 to .19.
Small effect sizes are just what we should expect from contro-
gersial areas. According to fundamental principles of statistical
Power (Cohen, 1977), if the true effect size were substantial, studies
with only modest sample sizes would routinely be able to reject the
hull. For example, if the population value of r were .60, 90% of
geplication attempts would be significant at p < . 05 with sample sizes
Sf 24 (Cohen, 1977, p. 92). However, if the population value of r
Were .10, the median of our five controversial areas (Ilarris & Ro-
Senthal, 1986), only 7% of replication attempts would be significant
ht p < . 05 with sample sizes of 24. For the small population value
of r (.10), it would require sample sizes of over 1,000 to achieve a
90% rate of rejecting the null at p < . 05.
Even though controversial research areas are characterized by
small effects (including zero as a possibility), that does not mean that
the effects are of no practical importance. Indeed, the median small
effect of five areas cited above (r = . 10) is equivalent to improving
our success rate from 45% to a success rate of 55% (Rosenthal &
Rubin, 1982b).
Before leaving the topic of replication difficulty, it may help us
to place this problem in useful perspective by noting that it is not
only in the parapsychological or other behavioral sciences that rep-
lication difficulties emerge. Indeed, students of the physical sciences
have pointed out failures to replicate the construction of TEA-lasers
325
Ganzfeld Debate- Rosenthal
despite the availability of detailed instructions for replication. Ap-
parently TEA-lasers could be replicated dependably only when the
replication instructions were accompanied by a scientist who had ac-
tually built a laser (Collins, 1985).
SUMMARIZING THE META-ANALYSES
Hlyman (1985) and Honorton (1985) have done important meta-
analytic work on the topic of the ganzfeld experiments; it is this
work I summarize here.
Five indices of "psi" success have been used in ganzfeld research
(Honorton, 1985). One criticism of research in this area is that some
: investigators used several such indices in their studies and failed to
adjust their reported levels of significance (p) for the fact that they
had made multiple tests (Hyman, 1985). Because most studies used
a particular one of these five methods, the method of direct hits,
Honorton focused his meta-analysis on just those 28 studies (of a
total of 42) for which direct hit data were available.
The method of direct hits scores a success only when the single
correct target is chosen out of a set of t total targets. Thus, the prob-
ability of success on a single trial is 1/t with t usually = 4 but some-
times 5 or 6. The other methods, using some form of partial credit,
appear to be more precise in that they use more of the information
available. Although they differ in their interpretation of the results,
Honorton (1985) and Hyman (1985) agree quite well on the basic
quantitative results of the meta-analysis of these 28 studies. This
agreement holds both for the estimation of statistical significance
(Honorton, 1985, p. 58) and of effect size (Hyman, 1985, p. 13).
Stem-and-Leaf Display
Table 5 shows a stem-and-leaf display of the 28 effect size esti-
mates based on the direct hits studies summarized by Honorton
(1985, p. 84). The effect size estimates shown in Table 5 are in units
of Cohen's h, which is the difference between (a) the arcsine trans-
formed proportion of direct hits obtained and (b) the arcsine trans-
formed proportion of direct hits expected under the null hypothesis
(i.e., 1/t). The advantage of h over j, the difference between raw pro-
portions, is that all h values that are identical are identically detect-
able whereas all j values that are identical (e.g., .65 -. 45 and
.25 -. 05) are not equally detectable (Cohen, 1977, p. 181).
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TABLE. 5
STEM-AND-LEAF PLOT OF "DIRECT HIT" GANZFELD STUDIES: COHEN'S h
Stem
Leaf
1.4
4
1.3
3
1.2
1.1
1.0
.9
.8
.7
3
.6
.5
8
.4
02224
.3
1224478
2
2
1
388
.0)
779
-. 0
5
-. 1
0
-. 2
-. 3
2
-. 4
0
-. 5
-. 6
-. 7
-. 8
3
Tukey (1977) developed the stem-and-leaf plot as a special form
of frequency distribution to facilitate the inspection of a batch of
data. Each number in the data batch is made up of one stem and
One leaf, but each stem may serve several leaves. Thus, the stem .1
followed by leaves of 3, 8, 8 representing the numbers .13, .18,
#18. The first digit is the stem; the next digit is the leaf. The stem-
and-leaf display functions as any other frequency distribution but
the original data are retained precisely.
Distribution of studies. From Table 5 we see that the distribution
of effect sizes is unimodal, with the bulk of the results (80%) falling
between -. 10 and .58. The distribution is nicely symmetrical, with
the skewness index (g) = . 17) only 24% of that required for signif-
icance at p < . 05 (Snedecor & Cochran, 1980, pp. 78-79, 492). The
tails of the distribution, however, are too long for normality with
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Ganzfeld Debate-Rosenthal
327
kurtosis index g2 = 2.04, p = . 02. Relative to what we would expect.
from a normal distribution, we have studies that show larger posi-
tive and larger negative effect sizes than would be reasonable. In-
deed, the two largest positive effect sizes are significant outliers at p
< . 05, and the largest negative effect size approaches significance,
with a Dixon index of .37 compared to one of .40 for the largest
positive effect size (Snedecor & Cochran, 1980, pp. 279-280, 490).
The total sample of studies is still small; however, if a much larger
sample showed the same result, that would be a pattern consistent
with the idea that both strong positive results ("psi") and strong neg-
ative results ("psi-missing") might be more likely to find their way
into print or at least to be more available to a meta-analyst.
Distribution of subjects. It is useful to examine the distribution of
effect sizes obtained in the summarized studies. It would also be
useful to examine the distribution of effect sizes obtained by indi-
vidual subjects within the studies summarized. For example, in a
study with a mean h of .20, is the distribution of h fairly normal with
centering at .20, or is the distribution skewed with the bulk of the
subjects centered closer to zero but with a few subjects earning con-
sistently high values of h?
Distribution of investigators. Just as it is useful to examine the dis-
tribution of the results of studies and of subjects within studies, it is
also useful to examine the distribution of results obtained by differ-
ent investigators (Honorton, 1985; Hyman, 1985; Rosenthal, 1969,
1984). The 28 direct hit studies were conducted by 10 different in-
vestigators (Honorton, 1985, p. 60). Four investigators conducted
only one study each, two conducted two studies each, two conducted
"three studies cach, one conducted five studies, and one conducted
nine studies. Analysis of variance showed that these 10 investigators
differed significantly and importantly in the average magnitude of
the effects they obtained with F(9,18) = 3.81, p < . 01, eta = . 81.
Interestingly, there was little relationship between the mean effect
size obtained by each investigator and the number of studies con-
ducted (r = . 11; t(8) = 0.31, p > .70).
That different investigators may obtain significantly different re-
sults from their subjects is well known in various areas of psychology
(Rosenthal, 1966). For example, in such a standard experimental
area as eyelid conditioning, studies conducted at Iowa obtained re-
sults in the predicted direction 94% of the time, whereas those con-
ducted elsewhere obtained such results only 62% of the time with
x2(1) = 4.05, p < . 05, N = 25, r = . 40 (Rosenthal, 1966, p. 24;
Spent, 1964
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TABLE 6
STATISTICAL SUMMARY OF "DIRECT HIT" GANZFELD STUDIES
Central tendency (Cohen's h)
Variability
Unweighted mean
28
Maximum
1.44
Weighted mean
.23
Quartile 3 (Q3)
.42
Median
.32
Median (Q2)
.32
Proportion positive sign
.82
Quartile I (Q1)
.08
Minimum
- . 93
Significance tests
Q3 - Q1
.34
Combined Stouffer z
6.60
ở: [.75 (03 - Q1]
.26
( test of mean z
3,23
S
.45
z of proportion positive
3.40
Correlation of h
With z
.86
Confidence intervals"
With raw j
.98
From
To
80%
.17
.39
95%
.11
.45
99%
.04
.52
99.9%
-. 03
.59
"Based on N of 28 studies.
Summary of Stem-and-Leaf Display
Table 6 provides a summary of the stem-and-leaf display of Ta-
ble 5 and some additional useful information about central ten-
dency, variability, significance tests, confidence intervals, and corre-
lations between Cohen's h and (a) significance level (z) and (b) raw
difference in proportions (j). Only a few comments are required.
Effect size. The bulk of the results (82%) show a positive effect
size where 50% would be expected under the null (p = . 0004). The
mean effect size, h, of .28 is equivalent to having a direct hit rate of
.38 when .25 was expected under the null. The 95% confidence in-
terval suggests the likely range of effect sizes to be from .11 to .45,
equivalent to accuracy rates of .30 to .46 when .25 was expected
under the null hypothesis.
Significance testing. The overall probability that obtained accuracy
was better than the accuracy expected under the null was a p of
3.37/10" associated with a Stouffer > of 6.60 (Mosteller & Bush,
1954; Rosenthal, 1978a, 1984).
File-drawer analysis. A combined p as low as that obtained can be
used as a guide to the tolerance level for null results that never
found their way into the meta-analytic data base (Rosenthal, 1979,
Ganzfeld Debate-Rosenthal
329
1984). It has long been believed that studies failing to reach statis-
tical significance may be less likely to be published (Rosenthal, 1966;
Sterling, 1959). Thus it may be that there is a residual of nonsignifi-
cant studies languishing in the investigators' file drawers. With sim-
ple calculations, it can be shown that, for the current studies sum-
marized, there would have to be 423 studies with mean p = . 50,
one-tailed, or z = 0.00 in those file drawers before the overall com-
bined p would become just > .05, as Honorton (1985) has pointed
out.
That many studies unretrieved seems unlikely for this specialized
area of parapsychology (Honorton, 1985; Hyman, 1985). Based on
experience with meta-analyses in other-domains of research (e.g.,
interpersonal expectancy effects) the mean z or effect size for non-
significant studies is not 0.00 but a value pulled strongly from 0.00
toward the mean z or mean effect size of the obtained studies (Ro-
senthal & Rubin, 1978).
Comparison with an Earlier Meta-Analysis
It is instructive to compare the results of the ganzfeld research
meta-analysis by Honorton (1985) with the results of an older and
larger meta-analysis of another controversial research domain-
that of interpersonal expectancy effects (Rosenthal & Rubin, 1978).
In that analysis, eight areas of expectancy effects were summarized;
effect sizes (Cohen's d, roughly equivalent to Cohen's h) ranged
from .14 to 1.73 with a grand mean d of .70. Honorton's mean ef-
fect size (h = . 28) exceeds the mean d of two of the eight areas
(reaction time experiments [d = . 17], and studies using laboratory
interviews [d = . 14]).
The earlier meta-analysis displayed the distribution of the z's as-
sociated with the obtained p levels. Table 7 shows a comparison of
the two meta-analyses' distributions of z's. It is interesting to note
the high degree of similarity in the distributions of significance lev-
els. The total proportion of significant results is somewhat higher
for the ganzfeld studies but not significantly so (x2(1) = 1.07, N =
: 373, p = . 30, ¢ = . 05).
INTERPRETING THE META-ANALYTIC RESULTS
Although the results of the meta-analysis are clear, the meaning
of these results is open to various interpretations. The most obvious
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TABLE 7
PROPORTION OF STUDIES REACHING CRITICAL LEVELS OF SIGNIFICANCE
FOR TWO RESEARCH AREAS
Interval for z
Expected
proportion
Expectancy
research“
Ganzfeld
research"
Difference
Predicted direction
+ 3.72 and above
.0001
.07
.04
-. 03
+ 3.09 and above
.001
.12
.18
.06
+ 2.33 and above
.01
.19
.25
.06
+ 1.65 and above
.05
.36
.43
.07
Not significant
- 1.64 to + 1.64
.90
.60
.50
-. 10
Unpredicted direction
- 1.65 and below
.05
.03
.07
.04
"N = 345 studies; from Rosenthal & Rubin (1978).
"N = 28 studies; from Honorton (1985).
interpretation might be that at a very low p, and with a fairly im-
pressive effect size, the ganzfeld psi phenomenon has been dem-
onstrated. However, there are rival hypotheses that will need to be
considered, many of them put forward in the detailed evaluation by
Hyman (1985).
Procedural Rival Hypotheses
Sensory leakage. A standard rival hypothesis to the hypothesis of
ESP is that sensory leakage occurred and that the receiver was
knowingly or unknowingly cued by the sender or by an intermedi-
ary between the sender and receiver. As early as 1895, Hansen and
Lehmann (1895) described "unconscious whispering" in the labora-
tory, and Kennedy (1938, 1939) was able to show that senders in
telepathy experiments could give auditory cues to their receivers
quite unwittingly. Ingenious use of parabolic sound reflectors made
this demonstration possible. Moll (1898), Stratton (1921), and War-
ner and Raible (1937) all gave early warnings on the dangers of un-
intentional cueing (for summaries see Rosenthal, 1965, 1966). The
subtle kinds of cues described by these early workers were just the
kind we have come to look for in searching for cues given off by
experimenters that might serve to mediate the experimenter ex-
pectancy effects found in laboratory settings (Rosenthal, 1966,
1985).
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By their nature, ganzfeld studies tend to minimize problems of
sensory cueing. An exception occurs when the subject is asked to
choose which of four (or more) stimuli has been "sent" by another
person or agent. When the same stimuli held originally by the
sender are shown to the receiver, finger smudges or other marks
may serve as cues. Honorton has shown, however, that studies con-
trolling for this type of cue yield at least as many significant effects
as do the studies not controlling for this type of cue.
Recording errors. A second rival hypothesis has nearly as long a
history. Kennedy and Uphoff (1939) and Sheffield and Kaufman
(1952) both found biased errors of recording the data of parapsy-
chological experiments. In a meta-analysis of 139,000 recorded ob-
servations in 21 studies, it was found that about 1% of all observa-
tions were in error and that, of the errors committed, twice as many
favored the hypothesis as opposed it (Rosenthal, 1978b). Although
it is difficult to rule recording errors out of ganzfeld studies (or any
other kind of research), their magnitude is such that they could
probably have only a small biasing effect on the estimated average
effect size (Rosenthal, 1978b, p. 1007).
Intentional error. The very recent history of science has reminded
us that even though fraud in science is not quite of epidemic pro-
portion, it must be given close attention (Broad & Wade, 1982;
Zuckerman, 1977). Fraud in parapsychological research has been a
constant concern, a concern found to be justified by periodic fa-
grant examples (Rhine, 1975). In the analyses of Hyman (1985) and
Honorton (1985), in any case, there appeared to be no relationship
between degree of monitoring of participants and the results of the
study.
Statistical Rival Hypotheses
File-drawer issues. The problem of biased retrieval of studies for
any meta-analysis was described carlier. Part of this problem is ad-
dressed by the 10-year-old norm of the Parapsychological Associa-
tion of reporting negative results at its meetings and in its journals
(Honorton, 1985). Part of this problem is addressed also by Black-
more (1980), who conducted a survey to retrieve unreported ganz-
feld studies. She found that 7 of her total of 19 studies were judged
significant overall by the investigators. This proportion of significant
results (.37) was not significantly (or appreciably) lower than the
proportion of published studies found significant (.43) in Honor-
ton's (1985) meta-analysis of direct hit ganzfeld studies (x"(1) =
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0.17, $ = . 06. Somewhat similar results were obtained by Sommer
(in press) in her analysis of research on the menstrual cycle. She
found 61% of the published results to be significant compared to
40% of the unpublished studies; x2(1) = 2.30, p < . 065, one-tailed,
+ = . 20. The results of the Blackmore and Sommer studies did not
differ significantly (z = 0.69). Taken together, these studies provide
only modest evidence for a serious file-drawer problem.
A problem that seems to be a special case of the file-drawer
problem was pointed out by Hyman (1985). That was a possible ten-
dency to report the results of pilot studies along with subsequent
significant results when the pilot data were significant. At the same
time it is possible that pilot studies were conducted without prom-
ising results, pilot studies that then found their way into the file
drawers. In any case, it is nearly impossible to have an accurate es-
timate of the number of unretrieved studies or pilot studies actually
conducted. Chances seem good, however, that there would be fewer
than the 423 results of mean z = 0.00 required to bring the overall
combined p to > .05.
Multiple testing. Each ganzfeld study may have more than one de-
pendent variable for scoring degree of success. If investigators use
these dependent variables sequentially until they find one significant
at p < . 05, the true p will be higher than .05 (Hyman, 1985). This
issue was discussed earlier; it is not an inherently intractable one
(Rosenthal & Rubin, 1986).
Randomization. Hyman (1985) has noted that the target stimulus
may not have been selected in a truly random way from the pool of
potential targets. To the extent that this is the case, the p values
calculated can be in error. Hyman (1985) and Honorton (1985) dis-
agree over the frequency in this sample of studies of improper ran-
domization. In addition, they disagree over the magnitude of the
relationship between inadequate randomization and study outcome.
Hyman felt this relationship to be significant and positive; Honorton
felt this relationship to be nonsignificant and negative. Because the
median p level of just those 16 studies using random number tables
or generators (z = . 94) was essentially identical to that found for all
28 studies, it seems unlikely that poor randomization procedures
were associated with much of an increase in significance level (Hon-
orton, 1985, p. 71).
Statistical errors. Hyman (1985) and Honorton agree that 6 of the
28 studies contained statistical errors. However, the median effect
size of these studies (h = . 33) was very similar to the overall median
(h = . 32), so that it seems unlikely that these errors had a major
333
Ganzfeld Debate -- Rosenthal
effect on the overall effect size estimate. Omitting these six studies
from the analysis decreases the mean h from .28 to .26. Such a drop
is equivalent to a drop of the mean accuracy rate from .38 to .37
when .25 is the expected value under the null.
A Tentative Inference
On the basis of the preceding summary and the very valuable
meta-analytic evaluations of Honorton (1985) and Hyman (1985),
what are we to believe? It would be easiest to say, "Let's wait until
more data have been accumulated from studies purged of the prob-
lems noted by Hyman, Honorton, and others." That is not a realistic
approach. At any point in time some judgment can be made, and
though our judgment might be more accurate later on when those
more nearly perfect studies become available, the situation for the
ganzfeld domain seems reasonably clear. We feel it would be im-
plausible to entertain the null given the combined p from these 28
studies. Given the various problems or flaws pointed out by Hyman
and Honorton, the true effect size is almost surely smaller than the
mean h of .28 equivalent to a mean accuracy of 38% when 25% is
expected under the null. We are persuaded that the net result of
statistical errors was a biased increase in estimated effect size of at
least a full percentage point (from 37% to 38%). Furthermore, we
are persuaded that file-drawer and related problems are such that
some of the smaller effect size results have probably been kept off
the market. If pressed to estimate a more accurate effect size, we
might think in terms of a shrinkage of h from the obtained value of
.28 to perhaps an h of .18. Thus, when the accuracy rate expected
under the null is 1/4, we might estimate the obtained accuracy rate
to be about 1/3.
CONCLUSION
Parapsychologists in particular and scientists in general owe a
great debt of gratitude to Ray Hyman (1985) and Charles Honorton
(1985) for their careful and extensive analytic and meta-analytic
work on the ganzfeld problem. Their debate has yielded an espe-
cially high light/heat ratio, and many of the important issues have
now been brought out into bold relief.
In my commentary on the ganzfeld debate, I focused most
closely on the concept of replication. That seemed appropriate, not
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only because of the centrality of the problem of replicability in the
parapsychological literature, but also because of the centrality of the
problem in many sciences, especially when the effect sizes sought in
the population are small. The effect size zero is only a special case
of the class of small effect sizes.
In closing I want only to suggest that parapsychological and
other behavioral sciences would be well served to modify their view
of the success of replication in the direction of the following newer
view:
1. A replication is successful to the degree that the second study
obtains an effect size similar to the effect size of the first study.
2. Three or more investigations are successful replicates of one
another to the extent that the effect sizes are homogeneous.
3. Significance testing has nothing to do with success of replica-
tion though it can be useful in many ways, including the assessment
of the likelihood of the null given all prior research (weighted as
desired and as reasonable) and the likelihood of real differences
among the effect sizes of two or more studies.
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Department of Psychology
Harvard University
Cambridge, MA 02138
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REPLICATION AND META-ANALYSIS IN PARAPSYCHOLOGY
Jessica Utts
Division of Statistics
University of California, Davis
1. INTRODUCTION
In a June 1990 Gallup Poll, 49% of the 1,236 respondents claimed to believe in
extrasensory perception (ESP), and one in four claimed to have had a personal experience
involving telepathy (Gallup and Newport, 1991). Other surveys have shown even higher
percentages; the University of Chicago's National Opinion Research Council recently surveyed
1,473 adults, of which 67% claimed that they had experienced ESP (Greeley, 1987).
Public opinion is a poor arbiter of science, however, and experience is a poor substitute
for the scientific method. For more than a century, small numbers of scientists have been
conducting laboratory experiments to study phenomena such as telepathy, clairvoyance, and
precognition, collectively known as "psi" abilities. This paper will examine.some of that work,
as well as some of the statistical controversies it has generated.
Parapsychology, as this field is called, has been a source of controversy throughout its
history. Strong beliefs tend to be resistant to change even in the face of data, and many people,
scientists included, seem to have made up their minds on the question without examining any
empirical data at all. A critic of parapsychology recently acknowledged that "The level of the
debate during the past 130 years has been an embarrassment for anyone who would like to
believe that scholars and scientists adhere to standards of rationality and fair play" (Hyman,
1985a, p.89). While much of the controversy has focused on poor experimental design and
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potential fraud, there have been attacks and defenses of the statistical methods as well,
sometimes calling into question the very foundations of probability and statistical inference.
Most of the criticisms have been leveled by psychologists. For example, a 1988 report
of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences concluded that "The committee finds no scientific
justification from research conducted over a period of 130 years for the existence of
parapsychological phenomena" (Druckman and Swets, 1988, p. 22).
The chapter on
parapsychology was written by a subcommittee chaired by a psychologist who had published a
similar conclusion prior to his appointment to the committee (Hyman, 1985a, p.7). There were
no parapsychologists involved with the writing of the report. Resulting accusations of bias
(Palmer, Honorton and Utts, 1989) led U.S. Senator Claiborne Pell to request that the
Congressional Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) conduct an investigation with a more
balanced group. A one-day workshop was held on September 30, 1988 bringing together
parapsychologists, critics, and experts in some related fields (including the author of this paper).
The report concluded that parapsychology needs "a fairer hearing across a broader spectrum of
the scientific community, so that emotionality does not impede objective assessment of
experimental results" (Office of Technology Assessment, 1989).
It is in the spirit of the OTA report that this article is written. After Section 2, which
offers an anecdotal account of the role of statisticians and statistics in parapsychology, the
discussion turns to the more general question of replication of experimental results. Section 3
illustrates how replication has been (mis)interpreted by scientists in many fields. Returning to
parapsychology in Section 4, a particular experimental regime called the "ganzfeld" is described,
and an extended debate about the interpretation of the experimental results is discussed. Section
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5 examines a meta-analysis of recent ganzfeld experiments designed to resolve the debate.
Finally, Section 6 contains a brief account of meta-analyses that have been conducted in other
areas of parapsychology, and conclusions are given in Section 7.
2. STATISTICS AND PARAPSYCHOLOGY
Parapsychology had its beginnings in the investigation of purported mediums and other
anecdotal claims in the late 19th century. The Society for Psychical Research was founded in
Britain in 1882, and its American counterpart was founded in Boston in 1884. While these
organizations and their members were primarily involved with investigating anecdotal material,
a few of the early researchers were already conducting "forced-choice" experiments such as
card-guessing. (Forced-choice experiments are like multiple choice tests; on each trial the
subject must guess from a small, known set of possibilities.) Notable among these was Nobel
Laureate Charles Richet, who is generally credited with being the first to recognize that
probability theory could be applied to card-guessing experiments (Rhine, 1977, p.26; Richet,
1884).
F.Y. Edgeworth, partly in response to what he considered to be incorrect analyses of
these experiments, offered one of the earliest treatises on the statistical evaluation of forced-
choice experiments in two articles published in the Proceedings of the Society for Psychical
Research (Edgeworth, 1885, 1886). Unfortunately, as noted by Mauskopf and McVaugh (1979)
in their historical account of the period, Edgeworth's papers were "perhaps too difficult for their
immediate audience" (p. 105).
Edgeworth began his analysis by using Bayes Theorem to derive the formula for the
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5 examines a meta-analysis of recent ganzfeld experiments designed to resolve the debate.
Finally, Section 6 contains a brief account of meta-analyses that have been conducted in other
areas of parapsychology, and conclusions are given in Section 7.
2. STATISTICS AND PARAPSYCHOLOGY
Parapsychology had its beginnings in the investigation of purported mediums and other
anecdotal claims in the late 19th century. The Society for Psychical Research was founded in
Britain in 1882, and its American counterpart was founded in Boston in 1884. While these
organizations and their members were primarily involved with investigating anecdotal material,
a few of the early researchers were already conducting "forced-choice" experiments such as
card-guessing. (Forced-choice experiments are like multiple choice tests; on each trial the
subject must guess from a small, known set of possibilities.) Notable among these was Nobel
Laureate Charles Richet, who is generally credited with being the first to recognize that
probability theory could be applied to card-guessing experiments (Rhine, 1977, p.26; Richet,
1884).
F.Y. Edgeworth, partly in response to what he considered to be incorrect analyses of
these experiments, offered one of the earliest treatises on the statistical evaluation of forced-
choice experiments in two articles published in the Proceedings of the Society for Psychical
Research (Edgeworth, 1885, 1886). Unfortunately, as noted by Mauskopf and McVaugh (1979)
in their historical account of the period, Edgeworth's papers were "perhaps too difficult for their
immediate audience" (p. 105).
Edgeworth began his analysis by using Bayes Theorem to derive the formula for the
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posterior probability that chance was operating, given the data. He then continued with an
argument "savouring more of Bernoulli than Bayes" in which "it is consonant, I submit, to
experience, to put 1/2 both for a and B," i.e. for both the prior probability that chance alone was
operating, and the prior probability that "there should have been some additional agency. " He
then reasoned (using a Taylor Series expansion of the posterior probability formula) that if there
were a large probability of observing the data given that some additional agency was at work,
and a small objective probability of the data under chance, then the latter (binomial) probability
"may be taken as a rough measure of the sought a posteriori probability in favour of mere
chance" (p. 195).
Edgeworth concluded his article by applying his method to some data
published previously in the same journal. He found the probability against chance to be .99996,
which he said "may fairly be regarded as physical certainty" (p. 199). He concluded:
"Such is the evidence which the calculus of probabilities affords as to the
existence of an agency other than mere chance. The calculus is silent as to the
nature of that agency -- whether it is more likely to be vulgar illusion or
extraordinary law. That is a question to be decided, not by formulae and figures,
but by general philosophy and common sense" (p. 199).
Both the statistical arguments and the experimental controls in these early experiments
were somewhat loose. For example, Edgeworth treated as binomial an experiment in which one
person chose a string of eight letters and another attempted to guess the string. Since it has long
been understood that people are poor random number (or letter) generators, there is no statistical
basis for analyzing such an experiment. Nonetheless, Edgeworth and his contemporaries set the
stage for the use of controlled experiments with statistical evaluation in laboratory
parapsychology.
One of the first American researchers to use statistical methods in parapsychology was
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John Edgar Coover, who was the Thomas Welton Stanford Psychical Research Fellow, in the
Psychology Department at Stanford University, from 1912 to 1937 (Dommeyer, 1975). In 1917
Coover published a large volume summarizing his work (Coover, 1917). Coover believed that
his results were consistent with chance, but others have argued that Coover's definition of
significance was too strict (Dommeyer, 1975). For example, in one evaluation of his telepathy
experiments, Coover found a two-tailed p-value of .0062. He concluded "Since this value, then,
lies within the field of chance deviation, although the probability of its occurrence by chance is
fairly low, it cannot be accepted as a decisive indication of some cause beyond chance which
operated in favor of success in guessing" (Coover, 1917, p. 82). On the next page he made it
explicit that he would require a p-value of .0000221 to declare that something other than chance
was operating.
It was during the summer of 1930, with the card-guessing experiments of J.B. Rhine at
Duke University, that parapsychology began to take hold as a laboratory science. In fact,
Rhine's laboratory still exists under the name of the Foundation for Research on the Nature of
Man, housed at the edge of the Duke University campus.
It wasn't long after Rhine published his first book, Extrasensory Perception in 1934, that
the attacks on his methodology began. Since his claims were wholly based on statistical analyses
of his experiments, the statistical methods were closely scrutinized by critics anxious to find a
plausible explanation for Rhine's positive results.
The most persistent critic was a psychologist from McGill University named Chester
Kellogg (Mauskopf and McVaugh, 1979). Kellogg's main argument was that Rhine was using
the binomial distribution (and normal approximation) on a series of trials that were not
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independent. The experiments in question consisted of having a subject guess the order of a
deck of 25 cards, with five each of five symbols, so technically Kellogg was correct.
By 1937 several mathematicians and statisticians had come to Rhine's aid. Mauskopf and
McVaugh (1979) speculated that since statistics was itself a young discipline, "a number of
statisticians were equally outraged by Kellogg, whose arguments they saw as discrediting their
profession" ( p. 258). The major technical work, which acknowledged that Kellogg's criticisms
were accurate but did little to change the significance of the results, was conducted by Charles
Stuart and Joseph A. Greenwood and published in the first volume of the Journal of
Parapsychology (Stuart and Greenwood, 1937). Stuart, who had been an undergraduate in
mathematics at Duke, was one of Rhine's early subjects, and continued to work with him as a
researcher until Stuart's death in 1947. Greenwood was a Duke mathematician, who apparently
converted to a statistician at the urging of Rhine.
Another prominent figure who was distressed with Kellogg's attack was E. V.
Huntington, a mathematician at Harvard. After corresponding with Rhine, Huntington decided
that, rather than further confuse the public with a technical reply to Kellogg's arguments, a
simple statement should be made to the effect that the mathematical issues in Rhine's work had
been resolved. Huntington must have successfully convinced his former student, Burton Camp
of Wesleyan, that this was a wise approach. Camp was the 1937 President of IMS. When the
annual meetings were held in December of 1937 (jointly with AMS and AAAS), Camp released
a statement to the press that read:
"Dr. Rhine's investigations have two aspects: experimental and statistical. On the
experimental side mathematicians, of course, have nothing to say. On the
statistical side, however, recent mathematical work has established the fact that,
assuming that the experiments have been properly performed, the statistical
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analysis is essentially valid. If the Rhine investigation is to be fairly attacked, it
must be on other than mathematical grounds" (Camp, 1937).
One statistician who did emerge as a critic was William Feller. In a talk at the Duke
Mathematical Seminar on April 24, 1940, Feller raised three criticisms to Rhine's work (Feller,
1940). They had been raised before by others (and continue to be raised even today). The first
was that inadequate shuffling of the cards resulted in additional information from one series to
the next. The second was what is now known as the "file-drawer effect," namely, that if one
combines the results of published studies only, there is sure to be a bias in favor of successful
studies. The third was that the results were enhanced by the use of optional stopping, i.e. by
not specifying the number of trials in advance. All three of these criticisms were addressed in
a rejoinder by Greenwood and Stuart (1940), but Feller was never convinced. Even in its third
edition published in 1968, his book An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications
still contains his conclusion about Greenwood and Stuart: "Both their arithmetic and their
experiments have a distinct tinge of the supernatural" (Feller, 1968, p. 407). In his discussion
of Feller's position, Diaconis (1978) remarks, "I believe Feller was confused ... he seemed to
have decided the opposition was wrong and that was that."
Several statisticians have contributed to the literature in parapsychology to greater or
lesser degrees. T.N.E. Greville devoted much of his professional life to developing statistical
methods for parapsychology; Fisher (1924, 1929) addressed some specific problems in card-
guessing experiments; Wilks (1965) described various statistical methods for parapsychology;
Lindley (1957) presented a Bayesian analysis of some parapsychology data; and Diaconis (1978)
pointed out some problems with certain experiments and presented a method for analyzing
experiments when feedback is given.
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Occasionally, attacks on parapsychology have taken the form of attacks on statistical
inference in general, at least as it is applied to real data. Spencer-Brown (1957) attempted to
show that true randomness is impossible, at least in finite sequences, and that this could be the
explanation for the results in parapsychology. That argument re-emerged in a recent debate on
the role of randomness in parapsychology, initiated by psychologist J. Barnard Gilmore
(Gilmore, 1989; Utts, 1989a; Palmer, 1989; Gilmore, 1990; Palmer, 1990). Gilmore stated that
"The agnostic statistician, advising on research in psi, should take account of the possible
inappropriateness of classical inferential statistics" (1989, p.338). In his second paper, Gilmore
reviewed several non-psi studies showing purportedly random systems that do not behave as they
should under randomness (e.g. Iversen, Longcor, Mosteller, Gilbert, and Youtz, 1971; and
Spencer-Brown, 1957). Gilmore concluded that "Anomalous data ... should not be found nearly
so often if classical statistics offers a valid model of reality" (1990, p. 54), thus rejecting the use
of classical statistical inference for real-world applications in general.
3. REPLICATION
Implicit and explicit in the literature on parapsychology is the assumption that in order
to truly establish itself, the field needs to find a repeatable experiment. For example, Diaconis
(1978) starts the summary of his article in Science with the words "In search of repeatable ESP
experiments, modern investigators ... " (p. 131). On October 28-29, 1983, the 32nd International
Conference of the Parapsychology Foundation was held in San Antonio, Texas, to address "The
Repeatability Problem in Parapsychology." The Conference Proceedings (Shapin and Coly,
1985) reflect the diverse views among parapsychologists on the nature of the problem. Honorton
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(1985a) and Rao (1985), for example, both argued that strict replication is uncommon in most
branches of science, and that parapsychology should not be singled out as unique in this regard.
Other authors expressed disappointment in the lack of a single repeatable experiment in
parapsychology, with titles such as "Unrepeatability: Parapsychology's Only Finding"
(Blackmore, 1985), and "Research Strategies for Dealing with Unstable Phenomena" (Beloff,
1985).
It has never been clear, however, just exactly what would constitute acceptable evidence
of a repeatable experiment. In the early days of investigation, the major critics "insisted that
it would be sufficient for Rhine and Soal to convince them of ESP if a parapsychologist could
perform successfully a single 'fraud-proof' experiment" (Hyman, 1985a, p. 71). However, as
soon as well-designed experiments showing statistical significance emerged, the critics realized
that a single experiment could be statistically significant just by chance. British psychologist
C.E.M. Hansel quantified the new expectation, that the experiment should be repeated a few
times, as follows:
"If a result is significant at the .01 level and this result is not due to chance but
to information reaching the subject, it may be expected that by making two
further sets of trials the antichance odds of one hundred to one will be increased
to around a million to one, thus enabling the effects of ESP -- or whatever is
responsible for the original result -- to manifest itself to such an extent that there
will be little doubt that the result is not due to chance" (Hansel, 1980, p.298).
In other words, three consecutive experiments at p ≤ .01 would convince Hansel that something
other than chance was at work.
This argument implies that if a particular experiment produces a statistically significant
result, but subsequent replications fail to attain significance, then the original result was probably
due to chance, or at least remains unconvincing. The problem with this line of reasoning is that
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there is no consideration given to sample size or power. Only an experiment with extremely
high power should be expected to be "successful" three times in succession.
It is perhaps a failure of the way statistics is taught that many scientists do not understand
the importance of power in defining successful replication. To illustrate this point, psychologists
Tversky and Kahnemann (1982) distributed a questionnaire to their colleagues at a professional
meeting, with the question:
"An investigator has reported a result that you consider implausible. He ran 15
subjects, and reported a significant value, t = 2.46. Another investigator has
attempted to duplicate his procedure, and he obtained a nonsignificant value of
t with the same number of subjects. The direction was the same in both sets of
data. You are reviewing the literature. What is the highest value of t in the
second set of data that you would describe as a failure to replicate?" (1982, p.
28).
In reporting their results, Tversky and Kahnemann stated:
"The majority of our respondents regarded t = 1.70 as a failure to replicate. If
the data of two such studies (t = 2.46 and t = 1.70) are pooled, the value of t
for the combined data is about 3.00 (assuming equal variances). Thus, we are
faced with a paradoxical state of affairs, in which the same data that would
increase our confidence in the finding when viewed as part of the original study,
shake our confidence when viewed as an independent study" (1982, p. 28).
At a recent presentation to the History and Philosophy of Science Seminar at the
University of California at Davis, I asked the following question. Two scientists, Professors A
and B, each have a theory they would like to demonstrate. Each plans to run a fixed number
of Bernoulli trials and then test H,: p = . 25 versus H .: p > .25. Professor A has access to
large numbers of students each semester to use as subjects. In his first experiment he runs 100
subjects, and there are 33 successes (p = . 04, one-tailed). Knowing the importance of
replication, Professor A runs an additional 100 subjects as a second experiment. He finds 36
successes (p = . 009, one-tailed).
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Professor B only teaches small classes. Each quarter she runs an experiment on her
students to test her theory. She carries out ten studies this way, with the following results:
n
Number of successes
one-tailed p-value
10
4
.22
15
6
.15
17
6
.23
25
8
.17
30
10
.20
40
13
.18
18
7
.14
10
5
.08
15
5
.31
20
7
.21
I asked the audience by a show of hands to indicate whether or not they felt the scientists
had successfully demonstrated their theories. Professor A's theory received overwhelming
support, with approximately 20 votes, while Professor B's theory received only one vote.
If you aggregate the results of the experiments for each Professor, you will notice that
each conducted 200 trials, and Professor B actually demonstrated a higher level of success than
Professor A, with 71 as opposed to 69 successful trials. The one-tailed p-values for the
combined trials are .0017 for Professor A and .0006 for Professor B.
To address the question of replication more explicitly, I also posed the following
scenario. In December of 1987 it was decided to prematurely terminate a study on the effects
of aspirin in reducing heart attacks because the data were so convincing (See e.g. Greenhouse
and Greenhouse, 1988; Rosenthal, 1990a). The physician-subjects had been randomly assigned
to take aspirin or a placebo. There were 104 heart attacks among the 11,037 subjects in the
aspirin group, and 189 heart attacks among the 11,034 subjects in the placebo group (chi-square
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= 25.01, p <. 00001).
After showing the results of that study, I presented the audience with two hypothetical
experiments conducted to try to replicate the original result, with outcomes as follows:
REPLICATION #1
REPLICATION #2
Heart Attack
Heart Attack
Yes
No
Yes
No
Aspirin
11
1156
Aspirin
20
2314
Placebo
19
1090
Placebo
48
2170
Chi-square = 2.596, p =. 11
Chi-square = 13.206, p =. 0003
I asked the audience to indicate which one they thought was a more successful
replication. The audience chose the second one, as would most journal editors, because of the
"significant p-value". In fact, the first replication has almost exactly the same proportion of
heart attacks in the two groups as the original study, and is thus a very close replication of that
result. The second replication has very different proportions, and in fact the relative risk from
the second study is not even contained in a 95% confidence interval for relative risk from the
original study. The magnitude of the effect has been much more closely matched by the "non-
significant" replication.
Fortunately, psychologists are beginning to notice that replication is not as
straightforward as they were originally led to believe. A special issue of the Journal of Social
Behavior and Personality was entirely devoted to the question of replication (Neuliep, 1990).
In one of the articles, Rosenthal cautioned his colleagues: "Given the levels of statistical power
at which we normally operate, we have no right to expect the proportion of significant results
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that we typically do expect, even if in nature there is a very real and very important effect"
(Rosenthal, 1990b, p.16).
Jacob Cohen, in his insightful article titled "Things I Have Learned (So Far)," identified
another misconception common among social scientists: "Despite widespread misconceptions to
the contrary, the rejection of a given null hypothesis gives us no basis for estimating the
probability that a replication of the research will again result in rejecting that null hypothesis"
(Cohen, 1990, p.1307).
Cohen and Rosenthal both advocate the use of effect sizes as opposed to significance
levels when defining the strength of an experimental effect. In general, effect sizes measure the
amount by which the data deviate from the null hypothesis in terms of standardized units. For
instance, the effect size for a two-sample t-test is usually defined to be the difference in the two
means, divided by the standard deviation for the control group. This measure can be compared
across studies without the dependence on sample size inherent in significance levels. (Of course
there will still be variability in the sample effect sizes, decreasing as a function of sample size.)
Comparison of effect sizes across studies is one of the major components of meta-analysis.
Similar arguments have recently been made in the medical literature. For example,
Gardner and Altman (1986) stated that the use of p-values "to define two alternative outcomes -
significant and not significant .- is not helpful and encourages lazy thinking" (p. 746). They
advocated the use of confidence intervals instead.
As discussed in the next section, the arguments used to conclude that parapsychology has
failed to demonstrate a replicable effect hinge on these misconceptions of replication and failure
to examine power. A more appropriate analysis would compare the effect sizes for similar
.ª
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experiments across experimenters and across time to see if there have been consistent effects of
the same magnitude. Rosenthal also advocates this view of replication:
"The traditional view of replication focuses on significance level as the relevant
summary statistic of a study and evaluates the success of a replication in a
dichotomous fashion. The newer, more useful view of replication focuses on
effect size as the more important summary statistic of a study and evaluates the
success of a replication not in a dichotomous but in a continuous fashion"
(Rosenthal, 1990b, p. 28).
The dichotomous view of replication has been used throughout the history of
parapsychology, by both parapsychologists and critics (Utts, 1988). For example, the National
Academy of Sciences Report critically evaluated "significant" experiments, but entirely ignored
"nonsignificant" experiments.
In the next three sections we will examine some of the results in parapsychology using
the broader, more appropriate definition of replication. In doing so, we will show that the
results are far more interesting than the critics would have us believe.
4. THE GANZFELD DEBATE IN PARAPSYCHOLOGY
An extensive debate took place in the mid-1980's between a parapsychologist and critic,
questioning whether or not a particular body of parapsychological data had demonstrated psi
abilities. The experiments in question were all conducted using the ganzfeld setting (described
below). Several authors were invited to write commentaries on the debate. As a result, this
data base has been more thoroughly analyzed by both critics and proponents than any other, and
provides a good source for studying replication in parapsychology.
The debate concluded with a detailed series of recommendations for further experiments,
and left open the question of whether or not psi abilities had been demonstrated. A new series
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of experiments that followed the recommendations were conducted over the next few years. The
results of the new experiments will be presented in Section 5.
4.1
Free-response Experiments
Recent experiments in parapsychology tend to use more complex target material than the
cards and dice used in the early investigations, partially to alleviate boredom on the part of the
subjects and partially because they are thought to "more nearly resemble the conditions of
spontaneous psi occurrences" (Burdick and Kelly, 1977, p. 109). These experiments fall under
the general heading of "free-response" experiments, because the subject is asked to give a verbal
or written description of the target, rather than being forced to make a choice from a small
discrete set of possibilities. Various types of target material have been used, including pictures,
short segments of movies on video tapes, actual locations, and small objects.
Despite the more complex target material, the statistical methods used to analyze these
experiments are similar to those for forced-choice experiments. A typical experiment proceeds
as follows. Before conducting any trials, a large pool of potential targets is assembled, usually
in packets of four. Similarity of targets within a packet is kept to a minimum, for reasons made
clear below. At the start of an experimental session, after the subject is sequestered in an
isolated room, a target is selected at random from the pool. A sender is placed in another room
with the target. The subject is asked to provide a verbal or written description of what he or
she thinks is in the target, knowing only that it is a photograph, an object, etc.
After the subject's description has been recorded and secured against the potential for
later alteration, a judge (who may or may not be the subject) is given a copy of the subject's
description and the four possible targets that were in the packet with the correct target. A
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properly conducted experiment either uses video tapes or has two identical sets of target material
and uses the duplicate set for this part of the process, to ensure that clues such as fingerprints
don't give away the answer. Based on the subject's description, and of course on a blind basis,
the judge is asked to either rank the four choices from most to least likely to have been the
target, or to select the one from the four that seems to best match the subject's description. If
ranks are used, the statistical analysis proceeds by summing the ranks over a series of trials and
comparing the sum to what would be expected by chance. If the selection method is used, a
"direct hit" occurs if the correct target is chosen, and the number of direct hits over a series of
trials is compared to the number expected in a binomial experiment with p = . 25.
Note that the subjects' responses cannot be considered to be "random" in any sense, so
probability assessments are based on the random selection of the target and decoys. In a
correctly designed experiment, the probability of a direct hit by chance is .25 on each trial,
regardless of the response, and the trials are independent. These and other issues related to
analyzing free-response experiments are discussed by Utts (1989b).
4.2
The Psi Ganzfeld Experiments
The ganzfeld procedure is a particular kind of free-response experiment utilizing a
perceptual isolation technique originally developed by Gestalt psychologists for other purposes.
Evidence from spontaneous case studies and experimental work had led parapsychologists to a
model proposing that psychic functioning may be masked by sensory input and by inattention
to internal states (Honorton, 1977). The ganzfeld procedure was specifically designed to test
whether or not reduction of external "noise" would enhance psi performance.
In these experiments, the subject is placed in a comfortable reclining chair in an
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acoustically shielded room. To create a mild form of sensory deprivation, the subject wears
headphones through which white noise is played, and stares into a constant field of red light.
This is achieved by taping halved translucent ping-pong balls over the eyes and then illuminating
the room with red light. In the psi ganzfeld experiments, the subject speaks into a microphone
and attempts to describe the target material being observed by the sender in a distant room.
At the 1982 Annual Meeting of the Parapsychological Association, a debate took place
over the degree to which the results of the psi ganzfeld experiments constituted evidence of psi
abilities. Psychologist and critic Ray Hyman and parapsychologist Charles Honorton each
analyzed the results of all known psi ganzfeld experiments to date, and reached strikingly
different conclusions. The debate continued with the publication of their arguments in separate
articles in the March 1985 issue of the Journal of Parapsychology. Finally, in the December
1986 issue of the Journal of Parapsychology, Hyman and Honorton wrote a joint article in which
they highlighted their agreements and disagreements, and outlined detailed criteria for future
experiments. That same issue contained commentaries on the debate by ten other authors.
The data base analyzed by Hyman and Honorton consisted of results taken from 34
reports written by a total of 47 authors. Honorton counted 42 separate experiments described
in the reports, of which 28 reported enough information to determine the number of direct hits
achieved. Twenty three of the studies (55%) were classified by Honorton as having achieved
statistical significance at .05.
4.3
The Vote-Counting Debate
Vote-counting is the term commonly used for the technique of drawing inferences about
an experimental effect by counting the number of significant versus non-significant studies of
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the effect. Hedges and Olkin (1985) give a detailed analysis of the inadequacy of this method,
showing that it is more and more likely to make the wrong decision as the number of studies
increases. While Hyman acknowledged that "vote-counting raises many problems (Hyman,
1985b, p.8)," he nonetheless spent half of his critique of the ganzfeld studies showing why
Honorton's count of 55% was wrong.
Hyman's first complaint was that several of the studies contained multiple conditions,
each of which should be considered as a separate study. Using this definition he counted 80
studies (thus further reducing the sample sizes of the individual studies), of which 25 (31 %)
were "successful." Honorton's response to this was to invite readers to examine the studies and
decide for themselves if the varying conditions constituted separate experiments.
Hyman next postulated that there was selection bias, so that significant studies were more
likely to be reported. He raised some important issues about how pilot studies may be
terminated and not reported if they don't show significant results, or may at least be subject to
optional stopping, allowing the experimenter to determine the number of trials. He also
presented a chi-square analysis that "suggests a tendency to report studies with a small sample
only if they have significant results" (Hyman, 1985b, p.14). but I have questioned his analysis
elsewhere (Utts, 1986, p. 397).
Honorton refuted Hyman's argument with four rejoinders (Honorton, 1985b, p.66). In
addition to reinterpreting Hyman's chi-square analysis, Honorton pointed out that the
Parapsychological Association has an official policy encouraging the publication of non-
significant results in its journals and proceedings, that a large number of reported ganzfeld
studies did not achieve statistical significance, and that there would have to be 15 studies in the
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"file-drawer" for every one reported to cancel out the observed significant results.
The remainder of Hyman's vote-counting analysis consisted of showing that the effective
error rate for each study was actually much higher than the nominal 5%. For example, each
study could have been analyzed using the direct hit measure, the sum of ranks measure, or one
of two other measures used for free-response analyses. Hyman carried out a simulation study
that showed the true error rate would be .22 if "significance" was defined by requiring at least
one of these four measures to achieve the .05 level. He suggested several other ways in which
multiple testing could occur, and concluded that the effective error rate in each experiment was
not the nominal .05, but rather was probably close to the 31% he had determined to be the
actual success rate in his vote-count.
Honorton acknowledged that there was a multiple testing problem, but he had a two-fold
response. First, he applied a Bonferroni correction and found that the number of significant
studies (using his definition of a study) only dropped from 55% to 45%. Next, he proposed that
a uniform index of success be applied to all studies. He used the number of direct hits, since
it was by far the most commonly reported measure and was the measure used in the first
published psi ganzfeld study. He then conducted a detailed analysis of the 28 studies reporting
direct hits and found that 43% were significant at .05 on that measure alone. Further, he
showed that significant effects were reported by six of the 10 independent investigators, and
thus were not due to just one or two investigators or laboratories. He also noted that success
rates were very similar for reports published in refereed journals and those published in
unrefereed monographs and abstracts.
While Hyman's arguments identified issues such as selective reporting and optional
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stopping that should be considered in any meta-analysis, the dependence of significance levels
on sample size makes the vote-counting technique almost useless for assessing the magnitude of
the effect. Consider for example the 24 studies where the direct hit measure was reported and
the chance probability of a direct hit was .25, the most common type of study in the data base.
(There were 4 direct hit studies with other chance probabilities and 14 that did not report direct
hits.) Of the 24 studies, 13 (54%) were "nonsignificant" at a = . 05, one-tailed. But if the 367
trials in these "failed replications" are combined, there are 106 direct hits, z = 1.66, and p =
.0485, one tailed. This is reminiscent of the dilemma of Professor B in Section 3.
Power is typically very low for these studies. The median sample size for the studies
reporting direct hits was 28. If there is a real effect and it increases the success probability from
the chance .25 to an actual .33 (a value whose rationale will be made clear below), the power
for a study with 28 trials is only .181 (Utts, 1986). It should be no surprise that there is a
"repeatability" problem in parapsychology.
4.4 Flaw Analysis and Future Recommendations
The second half of Hyman's paper consisted of a "Meta-Analysis of Flaws and
Successful Outcomes" (1985b, p. 30), designed to explore whether or not various measures of
success were related to specific flaws in the experiments. While many critics have argued that
the results in parapsychology can be explained by experimental flaws, Hyman's analysis was the
first to attempt to quantify the relationship between flaws and significant results.
Hyman identified 12 potential flaws in the ganzfeld experiments, such as inadequate
randomization, multiple tests used without adjusting the significance level (thus inflating the
significance level from the nominal 5%), and failure to use a duplicate set of targets for the
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judging process (thus allowing possible clues such as fingerprints). Using cluster and factor
analyses, the 12 binary flaw variables were combined into three new variables, which Hyman
named General Security, Statistics and Controls.
Several analyses were then conducted. The one reported with the most detail is a factor
analysis utilizing 17 variables for each of 36 studies. Four factors emerged from the analysis.
From these, Hyman concluded that security had increased over the years, that the significance
level tended to be inflated the most for the most complex studies, and that both effect size and
level of significance were correlated with the existence of flaws.
Following his factor analysis, Hyman picked the three flaws that seemed to be most
highly correlated with success, which were inadequate attention to both randomization and
documentation, and the potential for ordinary communication between the sender and receiver.
A regression equation was then computed using each of the three flaws as dummy variables, and
the effect size for the experiment as the dependent variable. From this equation, Hyman
concluded that a study without these three flaws would be predicted to have a hit rate of 27%.
He concluded that this is "well within the statistical neighborhood of the 25% chance rate" (ibid,
p. 37), and thus "the ganzfeld psi data base, despite initial impressions, is inadequate either to
support the contention of a repeatable study or to demonstrate the reality of psi" (ibid p. 38).
Honorton discounted both Hyman's flaw classification and his analysis. He did not deny
that flaws existed, but objected that Hyman's analysis was faulty and impossible to interpret.
Honorton asked psychometrician David Saunders to write an Appendix to his article, evaluating
Hyman's analysis. Saunders first criticized Hyman's use of a factor analysis with 17 variables
(many of which were dichotomous) and only 36 cases, and concluded that "the entire analysis
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is meaningless" (Saunders, 1985, p.87). He then noted that Hyman's choice of the three flaws
to include in his regression analysis constituted a clear case of multiple analysis, since there were
84 possible sets of three that could have been selected (out of nine potential flaws), and Hyman
chose the set most highly correlated with effect size. Again, Saunders concluded that "any
interpretation drawn from [the regression analysis] must be regarded as meaningless" (ibid, p.
88).
Hyman's results were also contradicted by Harris and Rosenthal (1988b) in an analysis
requested by Hyman in his capacity as Chair of the National Academy of Sciences'
Subcommittee on Parapsychology. Using Hyman's flaw classifications and a multivariate
analysis, Harris and Rosenthal concluded that "Our analysis of the effects of flaws on study
outcome lends no support to the hypothesis that ganzfeld research results are a significant
function of the set of flaw variables" (1988b, p. 3).
Hyman and Honorton were in the process of preparing papers for a second round of
debate when they were invited to lunch together at the 1986 Meeting of the Parapsychological
Association. They discovered that they were in general agreement on several major issues, and
decided to coauthor a "Joint Communique" (Hyman and Honorton, 1986). It is clear from their
paper that they both thought it was more important to set the stage for future experimentation
than to continue the technical arguments over the current data base. In the abstract to their
paper they wrote:
"We agree that there is an overall significant effect in this data base that cannot
reasonably be explained by selective reporting or multiple analysis. We continue to
differ over the degree to which the effect constitutes evidence for psi, but we agree that
the final verdict awaits the outcome of future experiments conducted by a broader range
of investigators and according to more stringent standards" (Ibid, p. 351).
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The paper then outlined what these standards should be. They included controls against
any kind of sensory leakage, thorough testing and documentation of randomization methods used,
better reporting of judging and feedback protocols, control for multiple analyses, and advance
specification of number of trials and type of experiment. Indeed, any area of research could
benefit from such a careful list of procedural recommendations.
4.5 Rosenthal's Meta-Analysis
The same issue of the Journal of Parapsychology in which the Joint Communique
appeared also carried commentaries on the debate by 10 separate authors. In his commentary,
psychologist Robert Rosenthal, one of the pioneers of meta-analysis in psychology, summarized
the aspects of Hyman's and Honorton's work that would typically be included in a meta-analysis
(Rosenthal, 1986). It is worth reviewing Rosenthal's results so that they can be used as a basis
of comparison for the more recent psi ganzfeld studies reported in Section 5.
Rosenthal, like Hyman and Honorton, focused only on the 28 studies for which
direct hits were known. He chose to use an effect size measure called Cohen's h, which is the
difference between the arcsin transformed proportions of direct hits that were observed and
expected:
h=2x(arcsin/p-arcsin/p)
One advantage of this measure over the difference in raw proportions is that can be used to
compare experiments with different chance hit rates.
If the observed and expected numbers of hits were identical, the effect size would be
zero. Of the 28 studies, 23 (82%) had effect sizes greater than zero, with a median effect size
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of .32 and a mean of .28. These correspond to direct hit rates of ,40 and .38 respectively, when
.25 is expected by chance. A 95% confidence interval for the true effect size is from .11 to .45,
corresponding to direct hit rates of from .30 to .46 when chance is .25.
A common technique in meta-analysis is to calculate a "combined z," found by summing
the individual z scores and dividing by the square root of the number of studies. The result
should have a standard normal distribution if each z score has a standard normal distribution.
For the ganzfeld studies, Rosenthal reported a combined z of 6.60 with a p-value of 3.37 x 10-11.
He also reiterated Honorton's file-drawer assessment by calculating that there would have to be
423 studies unreported to negate the significant effect in the 28 direct hit studies.
Finally, Rosenthal acknowledged that because of the flaws in the data base and the
potential for at least a small file drawer effect, the true average effect size was probably closer
to .18 than .28. He concluded, "Thus, when the accuracy rate expected under the null is 1/4,
we might estimate the obtained accuracy rate to be about 1/3" (Ibid, p. 333). This is the value
used for the earlier power calculation.
It is worth mentioning that Rosenthal was commissioned by the National Academy of
Sciences to prepare a background paper to accompany its 1988 report on parapsychology. That
paper (Harris and Rosenthal, 1988a) contained much of the same analysis as his commentary
summarized above. Ironically, the discussion of the ganzfeld work in the National Academy
Report focused on Hyman's 1985 analysis, but never mentioned the work it had commissioned
Rosenthal to perform, which contradicted the final conclusion in the report.
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5. A META-ANALYSIS OF RECENT GANZFELD EXPERIMENTS
After the initial exchange with Hyman at the 1982 Parapsychological Association
Meeting, Honorton and his colleagues developed an automated ganzfeld experiment, that was
designed to eliminate the methodological flaws identified by Hyman. The execution and
reporting of the experiments followed the detailed guidelines agreed upon by Hyman and
Honorton.
Using this "autoganzfeld" experiment, eleven experimental series were conducted by eight
experimenters between February 1983 and September 1989, when the equipment had to be
dismantled due to lack of funding. In this section the results of these experiments are
summarized and compared to the earlier ganzfeld studies. Much of the information is derived
from Honorton et al (1990).
5.1 The Automated Ganzfeld Procedure
Like earlier ganzfeld studies, the "autoganzfeld" experiments require four participants.
The first is the Receiver (R), who attempts to identify the target material being observed by the
Sender (S). The Experimenter (E) prepares R for the task, elicits the response from R, and
supervises R's judging of the response against the four potential targets. (Judging is double-
blind; E does not know which is the correct target.) The fourth participant is the lab assistant
(LA) whose only task is to instruct the computer to randomly select the target. No one involved
in the experiment knows the identity of the target.
Both R and S are sequestered in sound-isolated, electrically shielded rooms. R is
prepared as in earlier ganzfeld studies, with white noise and a field of red light. In a
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non-adjacent room, S watches the target material on a television and can hear R's target
description ("mentation") as it is being given. The mentation is also tape-recorded.
The judging process takes place immediately after the 30 minute sending period. On a
TV monitor in the isolated room, R views the four choices from the target pack that contains
the actual target. R is asked to rate each one according to how closely it matches the ganzfeld
mentation. The ratings are converted to ranks, and if the correct target is ranked first, a direct
hit is scored. The entire process is automatically recorded by the computer. The computer then
displays the correct choice to R as feedback.
There were 160 pre-selected targets, used with replacement, in ten of the eleven series.
They were arranged in packets of 4, and the decoys for a given target were always the remaining
three in the same set. Thus, even if a particular target in a set were consistently favored by R's,
the probability of a direct hit under the null hypothesis would remain at 1/4. Popular targets
should be no more likely to be selected by the computer's random number generator than any
of the others in the set. The selection of the target by the computer is the only source of
randomness in these experiments. This is an important point, and one that is often
misunderstood. (See Utts, 1989b for elucidation.)
Eighty of the targets were "dynamic," consisting of scenes from movies, documentaries
and cartoons; and 80 were "static", consisting of photographs, art prints, and advertisements.
The four targets within each set were all of the same type. Earlier studies indicated that
dynamic targets were more likely to produce successful results, and one of the goals of the new
experiments was to test that theory.
The randomization procedure used to select the target and the order of presentation for
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judging was thoroughly tested before and during the experiments. A detailed description is
given by Honorton et al (1990, p. 118-120).
Three of the eleven series were pilot series, five were formal series with novice
receivers, and three were formal series with experienced receivers. The last series with
experienced receivers was the only one that did not use the 160 targets. Instead, it used only
one set of four dynamic targets in which one target had previously received several first place
ranks, and one had never received a first place rank. The receivers, none of whom had had
prior exposure to that target pack, were not aware that only one target pack was being used.
They each contributed one session only to the series. This will be called the "special series" in
what follows.
Except for two of the pilot series, numbers of trials were planned in advance for each
series. Unfortunately, three of the formal series were not yet completed when the funding ran
out, including the special series, and one pilot study with advance planning was terminated early
when the experimenter relocated. There were no unreported trials during the six year period
under review, so there was no "file-drawer".
Overall, there were 183 R's who contributed only one trial and 58 who contributed more
than one, for a total of 241 participants and 355 trials. Only twenty three R's had previously
participated in ganzfeld experiments and 194 R's (81%) had never participated in any
parapsychological research.
5.2 Results
While acknowledging that no probabilistic conclusions can be drawn from qualitative
data, Honorton et al (1990), included several examples of session excerpts that R's identified as
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providing the basis for their target rating. To give a flavor for the dream-like quality of the
mentation and the amount of information that can be lost by only assigning a rank, the first
example is reproduced here. The target was a painting by Salvador Dali called "Christ
Crucified." The correct target received a first place rank. The part of the mentation R used to
make this assessment read:
" ... I think of guides, like spirit guides, leading me and I come into a court with a king.
It's quiet .... It's like heaven. The king is something like Jesus. Woman. Now I'm just
sort of summersaulting through heaven .... Brooding .... Aztecs, the Sun God .... High
priest .... Fear .... Graves. Woman. Prayer .... Funeral .... Dark. Death .... Souls .... Ten
Commandments. Moses .... " (Ibid, p. 120).
Over all eleven series there were 122 direct hits in the 355 trials, for a hit rate of 34.4%
(exact binomial p-value = . 00005) when 25% were expected by chance. Cohen's h is .20, and
a 95% confidence interval for the overall hit rate is from .30 to .39. This calculation assumes,
of course, that the probability of a direct hit is constant and independent across trials, an
assumption that may be questionable except under the null hypothesis of no psi abilities.
Honorton et al also calculated effect sizes for each of the eleven series and each of the
eight experimenters. All but one of the series (the first novice series) had positive effect sizes,
as did all of the experimenters.
The special series with experienced R's had an exceptionally high effect size with h =
.81, corresponding to 16 direct hits out of 25 trials (64%), but the remaining series and the
experimenters had relatively homogeneous effect sizes given the amount of variability expected
by chance. If the special series is removed, the overall hit rate is 32.1%, h = . 16. Thus, the
positive effects are not due to just one series or one experimenter.
Seventy one of the 218 trials contributed by novices were direct hits (32.5%, h = . 17),
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compared with 51 hits in the 137 trials by those with prior ganzfeld experience (37%, h = . 26).
The hit rates and effect sizes were 31% (h = . 14) for the combined pilot series, 32.5% (h =
.17) for the combined formal novice series, and 41.5% (h = . 35) for the combined experienced
series.
The last figure drops to 31.6% if the outlier series is removed. Finally, without the
outlier series the hit rate for the combined series where all of the planned trials were completed
was 31.2% (h = . 14) while it was 35% (h = . 22) for the combined series that were terminated
early. Thus, optional stopping cannot account for the positive effect.
There were two interesting comparisons that had been suggested by earlier work and
were preplanned in these experiments. The first was to compare results for trials with dynamic
targets with those for static targets. In the 190 dynamic target sessions there were 77 direct hits
(40%, h = . 32) and for the static targets there were 45 hits in 165 trials (27%, h = . 05), thus
indicating that dynamic targets produced far more successful results.
The second comparison of interest was whether or not the sender was a friend of the
receiver. This was a choice the receiver could make. If he or she did not bring a friend, a lab
member acted as sender. There were 211 trials with friends as senders (some of whom were
also lab staff), resulting in 76 direct hits (36%, h = . 24). Four trials used no sender. The
remaining 140 trials used non-friend lab staff as senders and resulted in 46 direct hits (33%, h
= . 18). Thus, trials with friends as senders were slightly more successful than those without.
Consonant with the definition of replication based on consistent effect sizes, it is
informative to compare the autoganzfeld experiments with the direct hit studies in the previous
data base. The overall success rates are extremely similar. The overall direct hit rate was
34.4% for the autoganzfeld studies and was 38% for the comparable direct hit studies in the
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earlier meta-analysis. Rosenthal's (1986) adjustment for flaws had placed a more conservative
estimate at 33%, very close to the observed 34.4% in the new studies.
One limitation of this work is that the autoganzfeld studies, while conducted by eight
experimenters, all used the same equipment in the same laboratory. Unfortunately, the level of
funding available in parapsychology and the cost in time and
equipment to conduct proper
experiments make it difficult to amass large amounts of data across laboratories. Another
autoganzfeld laboratory is currently being constructed at the University of Edinburgh in
Scotland, so interlaboratory comparisons may be possible in the near future.
Based on the effect size observed to date, large samples are needed to achieve reasonable
power. If there is a constant effect across all trials, resulting in 33% direct hits when 25% are
expected by chance, to achieve a one tailed significance level of .05 with 95% probability would
require 345 sessions.
We end this section by returning to the aspirin and heart attack example in Section 3, and
expanding a comparison noted by Atkinson et al (1990, p. 237). Computing the equivalent of
Cohen's h for comparing observed heart attack rates in the aspirin and placebo groups results
in h = . 068. Thus, the effect size observed in the ganzfeld data base is triple the much-
publicized effect of aspirin on heart attacks.
6. OTHER META-ANALYSES IN PARAPSYCHOLOGY
Four additional meta-analyses have been conducted in various areas of parapsychology
since the original ganzfeld meta-analyses were reported. Three of the four analyses focused on
evidence of psi abilities, while the fourth examined the relationship between extraversion and
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psychic functioning. In this section, each of the four analyses will be briefly summarized.
There are only a handful of English-language journals and proceedings in
parapsychology, so retrieval of the relevant studies in each of the four cases was simple to
accomplish by searching those sources in detail and by searching other bibliographic data bases
for keywords.
Each analysis included an overall summary, an analysis of the quality of the studies
versus the size of the effect, and a "file-drawer" analysis to determine the possible number of
unreported studies. Three of the four also contained comparisons across various conditions.
6.1 Forced-choice Precognition Experiments
Honorton and Ferrari (1989) analyzed forced-choice experiments conducted from 1935
to 1987, in which the target material was randomly selected after the subject had attempted to
predict what it would be. The time delay in selecting the target ranged from under a second to
one year. Target material included items as diverse as ESP cards and automated random number
generators. Two investigators, S.G. Soal and Walter J. Levy, were not included because some
of their work has been suspected to be fraudulent.
Overall Results. There were 309 studies reported by 62 senior authors, including more
than 50,000 subjects and nearly two million individual trials. Honorton and Ferrari used z /Vn
as the measure of effect size (ES) for each study, where n was the number of Bernoulli trials in
the study. They reported a mean ES of 0.020, and a mean z-score of 0.65 over all studies.
They also reported a combined z of 11.41, p = 6.3 x 10-25. Thirty percent (92) of the studies
were statistically significant at & = . 05. The mean ES per investigator was 0.033, and the
significant results were not due to just a few investigators.
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Quality. Eight dichotomous quality measures were assigned to each study, resulting in
possible scores from zero for the lowest quality, to eight for the highest. They included features
such as adequate randomization, preplanned analysis, and automated recording of the results.
The correlation between study quality and effect size was 0.081, indicating a slight tendency for
higher quality studies to be more successful, contrary to claims by critics that the opposite would
be true. There was a clear relationship between quality and year of publication, presumably
because over the years experimenters in parapsychology have responded to suggestions from
critics for improving their methodology.
File-drawer. Following Rosenthal (1984), the authors calculated the "fail-safe N"
indicating the number of unreported studies that would have to be sitting in file-drawers in order
to negate the significant effect. They found N = 14,268, or a ratio of 46 unreported studies for
each one reported. They also followed a suggestion by Dawes et al (1984) and computed the
mean z for all studies with z > 1.65. If such studies were a random sample from the upper 5 %
tail of a N(0,1) distribution, the mean z would be 2.06. In this case it was 3.61. They
concluded that selective reporting could not explain these results.
Comparisons. Four variables were identified that appeared to have a systematic
relationship to study outcome. The first was that the 25 studies using subjects selected on the
basis of good past performance were more successful than the 223 using unselected subjects,
with mean effect sizes of .051 and .008, respectively. Second, the 97 studies testing subjects
individually were more successful than the 105 studies that used group testing; mean effect sizes
were .021 and .004, respectively. Timing of feedback was the third moderating variable, but
information was only available for 104 studies. The 15 studies that never told the subjects what
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the targets were had a mean effect size of -. 001. Feedback after each trial produced the best
results, the mean ES for the 47 studies was .035. Feedback after each set of trials resulted in
mean ES of .023 (21 studies), while delayed feedback (also 21 studies) yielded a mean ES of
only .009. There is a clear ordering; as the gap between time of feedback and time of the actual
guesses decreased, effect sizes increased.
The fourth variable was the time interval between the subject's guess and the actual target
selection, available for 144 studies. The best results were for the 31 studies that generated
targets less than a second after the guess (mean ES = . 045), while the worst were for the 7
studies that delayed target selection by at least a month (mean ES = . 001). The mean effect
sizes showed a clear trend, decreasing in order as the time interval increased from minutes to
hours to days to weeks to months.
6.2. Attempts to Influence Random Physical Systems
Radin and Nelson (1989) examined studies designed to test the hypothesis that "The
statistical output of an electronic RNG [random number generator] is correlated with observer
intention in accordance with prespecified instructions" (p. 1502). These experiments typically
involve RNGs based on radioactive decay, electronic noise, or pseudorandom number sequences
seeded with true random sources. Usually the subject is instructed to try to influence the results
of a string of binary trials by mental intention alone. A typical protocol would ask a subject to
press a button (thus starting the collection of a fixed-length sequence of bits), and then try to
influence the random source to produce more zeroes or more ones. A run might consist of three
successive button presses, one each in which the desired result was more zeroes or more ones,
and one as a control with no conscious intention. A z score would then be computed for each
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button press.
The 832 studies in the analysis were conducted from 1959 to 1987, and included 235
"control" studies in which the output of the RNGs were recorded but there was no conscious
intention involved. These were usually conducted before and during the experimental series, as
tests of the RNGs.
Results. The effect size measure used was again z / Vn, where z was positive if more
bits of the specified type were achieved. The mean effect size for control studies was not
significantly different from zero (-1.0 x 105). The mean effect size for the experimental studies
was also very small, 3.2 x 104, but it was significantly higher than the mean ES for the control
studies (z = 4.1).
Quality. Sixteen quality measures were defined and assigned to each study, under the
four general categories of procedures, statistics, data, and the RNG device. A score of 16
reflected the highest quality. The authors regressed mean effect size on mean quality for each
investigator, and found a slope of 2.5 x 10-5 with standard error of 3.2 x 10-5, indicating little
relationship between quality and outcome. They also calculated a weighted mean effect size,
using quality scores as weights, and found that it was very similar to the unweighted mean ES.
They concluded that "differences in methodological quality are not significant predictors of effect
size" (p. 1507).
File-drawer. Radin and Nelson used several methods for estimating the number of
unreported studies (p. 1508-10). Their estimates ranged from 200 to 1000 based on models
assuming that all significant studies were reported. They also calculated the fail-safe N to be
54,000.
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6.3 Attempts to Influence Dice
Radin and Ferrari (1991) examined 148 studies, published from 1935 to 1987, designed
to test whether or not consciousness can influence the results of tossing dice. The also found
31 "control" studies in which no conscious intention was involved.
.
Results. The effect size measure used was z /Vn, where z was based on the number of
throws in which the die landed with the desired face (or faces) up, in n throws. The weighted
mean ES for the experimental studies was 0.0122 with a standard error of 0.00062; for the
control studies the mean and standard error were 0.00093 and 0.00255, respectively. Weights
for each study were determined by quality, giving more weight to high quality studies.
Combined z scores for the experimental and control studies were reported by Radin and Ferrari
to be 18.2 and 0.18, respectively.
Quality. Eleven dichotomous quality measures were assigned, ranging from automated
recording to whether or not control studies were interspersed with the experimental studies. The
final quality score for each study combined these with information on method of tossing the dice,
and with source of subject (defined below). A regression of quality score versus effect size
resulted in a slope of -. 002, with a standard error of .0011. However, when effect sizes were
weighted by sample size there was a significant relationship between quality and effect size,
leading Radin and Ferrari to conclude that higher quality studies produced lower weighted effect
sizes.
File-drawer. Radin and Ferrari calculated Rosenthal's fail-safe N for this analysis to be
17,974. Using the assumption that all significant studies were reported, they estimated the
number of unreported studies to be 1,152. As a final assessment, they compared studies
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published before and after 1975, when the Journal of Parapsychology adopted an official policy
of publishing nonsignificant results.
They concluded, based on that analysis, that more
nonsignificant studies were published after 1975, and thus "We must consider the overall (1935-
1987) data base as suspect with respect to the filedrawer problem."
Comparisons. Radin and Ferrari noted that there was bias in both the experimental and
control studies across die face. Six was the face most likely to come up, consistent with the
observation that it has the least mass. Therefore, they examined results for the subset of 69
studies in which targets were evenly balanced among the six faces. They still found a significant
effect, with mean and standard error for effect size of 8.6 x 10-3 and 1.1 x 10-3, respectively.
The combined z was 7.617 for these studies.
They also compared effect sizes across types of subjects used in the studies, categorizing
them as unselected, experimenter and other subjects, experimenter as sole subject, and specially
selected subjects. Like Honorton and Ferrari (1989), they found the highest mean ES for studies
with selected subjects; it was approximately .02, more than twice that for unselected subjects.
6.4 Extraversion and ESP Performance
Honorton, Ferrari and Bem (1990) conducted a meta-analysis to examine the relationship
between scores on tests of extraversion and scores on psi-related tasks. They found 60 studies
by 17 investigators, conducted from 1945 to 1983.
Results. The effect size measure used for this analysis was the correlation between each
subject's extraversion score and ESP score. A variety of measures had been used for both
scores across studies, so various correlation coefficients were used. Nonetheless, a stem and
leaf diagram of the correlations showed an approximate bell shape with mean and standard
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deviation of .19 and .26, respectively, and with an additional outlier at r = . 91. Honorton et
al reported that when weighted by degrees of freedom, the weighted mean r was .14, with a
95% confidence interval covering .10 to .19.
Forced-choice versus Free-response Results.' Because forced-choice and free-response
tests differ qualitatively, Honorton et al chose to examine their relationship to extraversion
separately. They found that for free-response studies there was a significant correlation between
extraversion and ESP scores, with mean r = . 20 and z = 4.46. Further, this effect was
· homogeneous across both investigators and extraversion scales.
For forced-choice studies, there was a significant correlation between ESP and
extraversion, but only for those studies that reported the ESP results to the subjects before
measuring extraversion. Honorton et al speculated that the relationship was an artifact, in which
extraversion scores were temporarily inflated as a result of positive feedback on ESP
performance.
Confirmation with New Data. Following the extraversion/ESP meta-analysis, Honorton
et al attempted to confirm the relationship using the autoganzfeld data base. Extraversion scores
based on the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator were available for 221 of the 241 subjects who had
participated in autoganzfeld studies.
The correlation between extraversion scores and ganzfeld rating scores was r = . 18, with
a 95% confidence interval from .05 to .30. This is consistent with the mean correlation of r =
.20 for free-response experiments, determined from the meta-analysis. These correlations
indicate that extraverted subjects can produce higher scores in free-response ESP tests.
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7. CONCLUSIONS
Parapsychologists often make a distinction between "proof-oriented research" and
"process-oriented research." The former is typically conducted to test the hypothesis that psi
abilities exist, while the latter is designed to answer questions about how psychic functioning
works. Proof-oriented research has dominated the literature in parapsychology. Unfortunately,
many of the studies used small samples and would thus be nonsignificant even if a moderate-
sized effect exists.
The recent focus on meta-analysis in parapsychology has revealed that there are small but
consistently nonzero effects across studies, experimenters, and laboratories. The size of the
effects in forced-choice studies appear to be comparable to those reported in some medical
studies that had been heralded as breakthroughs. (See Section 5, and Honorton and Ferrari,
1989, p. 301.) Free-response studies show effect sizes of far greater magnitude.
A promising direction for future process-oriented research is to examine the causes of
individual differences in psychic functioning. The ESP/extraversion meta-analysis is a step in
that direction.
In keeping with the idea of individual differences, Bayes and empirical Bayes methods
would appear to make more sense than the classical inference methods commonly used, since
they would allow individual abilities and beliefs to be modelled. Jeffreys (1990) reported a
Bayesian analysis of some of the RNG experiments, and showed that conclusions were closely
tied to prior beliefs even though hundreds of thousands of trials were available.
It may be that the nonzero effects observed in the meta-analyses can be explained by
something other than ESP, such as shortcomings in our understanding of randomness and
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independence. Nonetheless, there is an anomaly that needs an explanation. As I have argued
elsewhere (Utts, 1987) research in parapsychology should receive more support from the
scientific community. If ESP does not exist, there is little to be lost by erring in the direction
of further research; which may in fact uncover other anomalies. If ESP does exist there is much
to be lost by not doing process-oriented research, and much to be gained by discovering how
to enhance and apply these abilities to important world problems.
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Feller, W.K. (1940). Statistical aspects of ESP. Journal of Parapsychology 4 271-297.
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of the Society for Psychical Research 34 181-185.
Fisher, R.A. (1929). The statistical method in psychical research. Proceedings of the Society for
Psychical Research 39 189-192.
Gallup, G.H. Jr. and Newport, F. (1991). Belief in paranormal phenomena among adult
Americans. Skeptical Inquirer 15 137-146.
Gardner, M.J. and Altman, D.G. (1986). Confidence intervals rather than p-values: estimation
rather than hypothesis testing. British Medical Journal 292 746-750.
Gilmore, J.B. (1989). Randomness and the search for psi. Journal of Parapsychology 53 309-
340.
Gilmore, J.B. (1990). Anomalous significance in pararandom and psi-free domains. Journal of
Parapsychology 54 53-58.
Greeley, A. (1987). Mysticism goes mainstream. American Health 7 47-49.
Greenhouse, J.B. and Greenhouse, S.W. (1988). An aspirin a day ...? Chance 1 24-31.
Greenwood, J.A. and Stuart, C.E. (1940). A review of Dr. Feller's critique. Journal of
Parapsychology 4 299-319.
Hansel, C.E.M. (1980). ESP and Parapsychology: A Critical Re-evaluation. Prometheus Books,
Buffalo.
Harris, M.J. and Rosenthal, R. (1988a). Interpersonal Expectancy Effects and Human
Performance Research. National Academy Press, Washington DC.
Harris, M.J. and Rosenthal, R. (1988b). Postscript to Interpersonal Expectancy Effects and
Human Performance Research. National Academy Press, Washington DC.
Hedges, L. V. and Olkin, I. (1985). Statistical Methods for Meta-Analysis. Academic Press, Inc.,
Orlando, FL.
Honorton, C. (1977). Psi and internal attention states. In Handbook of Parapsychology (B.B.
Wolman, ed.) 435-472. Van Nostrand Reinhold, New York.
Honorton, C. (1985a). How to evaluate and improve the replicability of parapsychological
effects. In The Repeatability Problem in Parapsychology (B. Shapin and L. Coly. eds.)
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238-255. Parapsychology Foundation, New York.
Honorton, C. (1985b). Meta-analysis of psi ganzfeld research: A response to Hyman. Journal
of Parapsychology 49 51-91.
Honorton, C., Berger, R.E., Vargoglis, M.P., Quant, M., Derr, P., Schechter, E.I. and
Ferrari, D.C. (1990). Psi communication in the ganzfeld; experiments with an automated
testing system and a comparison with a meta-analysis of earlier studies. Journal of
Parapsychology 54 99-139.
Honorton, C. and Ferrari, D.C. (1989). "Future telling": A meta-analysis of forced-choice
precognition experiments, 1935-1987. Journal of Parapsychology 53 281-308.
Honorton, C., Ferrari, D.C., and Bem, D.J. (1990). Extraversion and ESP Performance: A
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Parapsychological Association.
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Hyman, R. (1985b). The ganzfeld psi experiment: A critical appraisal. Journal of
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parapsychology. Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research 83 317-339.
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Rosenthal, R. (1984). Meta-Analytic Procedures for Social Research. Sage, Beverly Hills.
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Rosenthal, R. (1990a). How are we doing in soft psychology? American Psychologist 45 775-
777.
Rosenthal, R. (1990b). Replication in behavioral research. Journal of Social Behavior and
Personality. 5 1-30.
Saunders, D.R. (1985). On Hyman's factor analysis. Journal of Parapsychology 49 86-88.
Shapin, B. and Coly, L. (Eds.) (1985). The Repeatability Problem in Parapsychology.
Parapsychology Foundation, New York.
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Spencer-Brown, G. (1957). Probability and Scientific Inference. Longmans Green, London and
New York.
Stuart, C.E. and Greenwood, J.A. (1937). A review of criticisms of the mathematical evaluation
of ESP data. Journal of Parapsychology 1 295-304.
Tversky, A. and Kahneman, D. (1982). Belief in the law of small numbers. In D. Kahneman,
P. Slovic and A. Tversky (Eds), Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases.
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Utts, J. (1986). The ganzfeld debate: A statistician's perspective. Journal of Parapsychology 50
395-402.
Utts, J. (1987). Psi, statistics, and society. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 10 615-616.
Utts, J. (1988). Successful replication versus statistical significance. Journal of Parapsychology
52 305-320.
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Wilks, S.S. (1965). N.Y. Statistician 16 (nos. 6 and 7).
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III MAIN-STREAM PUBLICATIONS
One measure of the acceptance of anomalous mental phenomena as a valid area for investigation is the
degree to which research papers appear in the main-stream scientific literature. The reports in this
section have been selected because they are a representative sample of such papers.
The number that appears in the upper right-hand corner of the first page for each publication is keyed
to the following descriptions:
9. Targ, R. and Puthoff, H. E., "Information Transmission Under Conditions of Sensory Shielding,"
Nature, Vol. 252, pp. 602-607, (October, 1974). Targ and Puthoff describe a series of experiments
with selected individuals, including Mr. Uri Geller, and introduce an anomalous cognition
technique called remote viewing. The paper also includes a pilot experiment to investigate the
effects of anomalous cognition on the alpha rhythms in the brain.
10. Puthoff, H. E. and Targ, R., "A Perceptual Channel for Information Transfer over Kilometer
Distances: Historical Perspective and Recent Research," Proceedings of the IEEE, Vol. 64, No. 3,
pp. 329-354, (March, 1976). Puthoff and Targ provide a historical review of the pertinent
literature and describe over 50 remote viewing (i.e., anomalous cognition) trials. The paper also
includes representative examples of remote viewing.
11. Jahn, R. G., "The Persistent Paradox of Psychic Phenomena: An Engineering Perspective,"
Invited Paper, Proceedings of the IEEE, Vol. 70, No. 2, pp. 136-170, (February, 1982). Jahn
describes a replication of remote viewing and extends the distance to over 10,000 kilometers. In
addition to an independent overview of parapsychology, Jahn also includes descriptions of a
number of anomalous perturbation experiments.
12. Child, I. L., "Psychology and Anomalous Observations: The Question of ESP in Dreams,"
American Psychologist, Vol. 40, No. 11, pp. 1219-1230, (November, 1985). Professor Child, the
then Chairman of the Psychology Department at Yale University, provides a critical review of the
anomalous cognition dream studies conducted at Maimonides Medical Center in the early 1970's.
Professor Child warns the general psychological research community not to dismiss the body of
research and suggests that it should be of wide interest to them.
13. Atkinson, R. L., Atkinson, R. C., Smith, E. E., and Bem, D. J., Introduction to Psychology, 10th Edition,
pp. 234-243, Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, New York, (1990). Professor Bem included anomalous
cognition in a chapter on consciousness and its altered states in a widely-used introductory text in
psychology. Bem provides definitions of terms, a review of the experimental evidence for anomalous
cognition, an analysis of the debate over the evidence, and a review of the anecdotal evidence.
14. Walker, E. H., May, E. C., Spottiswoode, S. J. P., and Piantanida, T., "Testing Schrodinger's
Paradox with a Michelson Interferometer," Physics B, Vol. 151, pp. 339-348, (1988). While not
directly related to anomalous mental phenomena, this paper describes an experimental test to
determine if consciousness is a necessary ingredient for determining physical reality. The authors
conclude that is it not, and thus, this result has implications for anomalous perturbation research.
15. Hyman, R., "Parapsychological Research: A Tutorial Review and Critical Appraisal," Invited
Paper, Proceedings of the IEEE, Vol. 74, No. 6, pp. 823-849, (June, 1986). Dr. Hyman is a Professor
of Psychology at the University of Oregon in Eugene and has been a long-time critic of and
commentator on the field of parapsychology. Hyman reviews the historical experiments and
provides a critical analysis of the current research.
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Nature Vol. 231 October 18 1974
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Vol. 251 No. 5476 October 18, 1974
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A hundred years ago Nature .was
reviewing E. J. Marey's Animal
Mechanism (page 518, October 29,
1874). These cumbersome mechanisms
were soon to be replaced by Muy-
bridge's zoopraxiscope camera. Od
page .567 we look at a Muybridge
sequence and a century later-what
happens when the light is switched on.
nature
Volume 252
October 18, 1974
Investigating the paranormal
559
For those in peril on the factory floor
560
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
562
NEWS AND VIEWS
569
ARTICLES
Human reproduction and family planning : research strategies in developing countries-
A. Kessler and C. C. Standley
577
Compositional variation in recent Icelandic tholelites and the Kverkfjöll hot spot-
G. E. Sigvaldason, S. Steinthorsson, N. Oskarsson and P. Imsland
579
Climatic significance of deuterium abundance in growth rings of Picea-W. E. Shiegl
582
Properties of hybrids between Salmonella phage P22 and coliphage 2-
D. Botstein and 1. Herskowitz
584
LETTERS TO NATURE-Physical Sciences
Distance to Cygnus X-1-C .- C. Cheng, K. J. H. Phillips and A. M. Wilson
589
High energy radiation from white holes-J. V. Narlikar, K. M. V. Appa Rao and
N. Dadhich
590
Spectrum of the cosmic background radiation between 3 mm and 800 um-
E. I. Robson, .D. G. Vickers, J. S. Huizinga, J. E. Beckman and P. E. Clegg
59
A new solar-terrestrial relationship-G. M. Brown
59
Rainfall, drought and the solar cycle-C. A. Wood and R. R. Lovett
Dynamic implications of mantle hotspots-M. A. Khan
A-type doubling in the CH molecule-R. E. Hammersley and W. G. Richards
5
Drag-reducing polymers and liquid-column oscillations-W. D. McComb
5
1/f noise with a low frequency white noise limit-K. L. Schick and A. A. Verveen
Second Law of Thermodynamics-D. R. Wilkie
60
Information transmission under conditions of sensory shielding-R. Targ and H. Puthoff 60.
LETTERS TO NATURE-Biological Sciences
The stability of a feasible random ecosystem-A. Roberts
607
Objective evaluation of auditory evoked EEG responses-B. McA. Sayers and
H. A. Beagley
608
Imprinting and exploration of slight novelty in chicks-P. S. Jackson and
P. P. G. Bateson
609
Microbial activation of prophenoloxidase from immune insect larvae-A. E. Pye
610
Elevation of total serum IgE in rats following helminth parasite infection-
-
E. Jarrett and H. Bazin
612
Alternative route for nitrogen assimilation in higher plants-P. J. Lea and
B. J. Miflin
614
Evolution of cell senescence, atherosclerosis and benign tumours-D. Dykhuizen
616
Insulin stimulates myogenesis in a rat myoblast line-J .- L. Mandel and
M. L. Pearson
618
Sickle cell.resistance to in vivo hypoxia-O. Castro, S. C. Finch and G. Osbaldistone
620
Expression of the dystrophia muscularis (dy) recessive gene in mice-R. Parsons
621
Growth of human muscle spindles in vitro-B. J. Elliott and D. G. F. Harriman
622
Multiple control mechanisms underlie initiation of growth in animal cells-
L. J. de Asua and E. Rozengurt
624
Control of cell division in yeast using the ionophore, A23187 with calcium and
magnesium-J. H. Dufus and L. J. Patterson .
626
Antigen of mouse bile capillaries and cuticle of intestinal mucosa-
N. I. Khramkova and T. D. Beloshapkina
627
Ultrastructural analysis of toxin binding and entry into mammalian cells-
G. L. Nicolson
628
Serum dopamine B-hydroxylase activity in developing hypertensive rats-T. Nagatsu,
T. Kato, Y. Numata (Sudo), K. Ikuta, H. Umezawa, M. Matsuzaki and T. Takeuchi
630
Enzymatic synthesis of acetylcholine by a serotonin-containing neurone from Helix-
.M. R. Hanley, G. A. Cottrell, P. C. Emson and F. Fonnum
631
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Information transmission under
conditions of sensory shielding
WE present results of experiments suggesting the existence of
one or more perceptual modalities through which individuals
obtain information about their environment, .although this
information.is not :presented .to any.known sense. The litera-
ture1-3 and our observations lead us to conclude that such
abilities can be studied under laboratory.conditions.
We have investigated the ability of certain people to describe
graphical material .or remote scenes shielded against ordinary
perception. In addition, we performed pilot studies to determine
if electroencephalographic (EEG) recordings might indicate
perception of remote happenings even in the absence of correct
overt responses.
We concentrated on what we consider to be our primary
responsibility-to resolve under conditions as unambiguous
as possible the basic issue of whether a certain class of para-
normal perception phenomena exists. So we conducted our
experiments with sufficient control, utilising visual, acoustic
and electrical shielding, to ensure that all conventional paths of
sensory input were blocked. At all times we took measures to
prevent sensory leakage and to prevent deception, whether
intentional or unintentional.
Our goal is not just to catalogue interesting. events, but to
uncover patterns of cause-effect relationships that lend them-
selves to analysis. and hypothesis in the forms with which
we are familiar in scientific study. The results presented here
constitute a 'first step towards that goal; we have established
under known conditions a data base from which departures as a
function of physical and psychological variables can be studied
in future work.
.
REMOTE PERCEPTION OF GRAPHIC MATERIAL
First, we conducted experiments with Mr Uri Geller in
which we examined his ability, while located in an electrically
shielded room, to reproduce target pictures drawn by experi-
menters . located at remote locations. Second, we conducted
double-blind experiments with Mr Pat Price, in which we
measured his ability to describe remote outdoor scenes many
miles from his physical location. Finally, we conducted pre-
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Nature Vol. 251 October 18 1974
liminary tests using EEGs, in which subjects were asked to
perceive whether a remote light was flashing, and to determine
whether a subject could perceive the presence of the light,
even if only at a noncognitive level of awareness.
In preliminary testing Geller apparently demonstrated an
ability to reproduce simple pictures (line drawings) which had
been drawn and placed in opaque sealed envelopes which he
was not permitted to handle. But since cach of the targets was
known to at least one experimenter in the room with Geller,
it was not possible on the basis of the preliminary testing to
discriminate between Geller's direct perception of envelope
contents and perception through some mechanism involving
the experimenters, whether paranormal or subliminal.
So we examined the phenomenon under conditions designed
to eliminate all conventional information channels, overt or
subliminal. Geller was separated from both the target material
and anyone knowledgeable of the material, as in the experiments
of ref. 4.
In the first part of the study a series of 13 separate drawing
experiments were carried out over 7 days. No experiments
are deleted from the results presented here.
At the beginning of the experiment either Geller or the
experimenters entered a shielded room so that from that time
forward Geller was at all times visually, acoustically and
electrically shielded from personnel and material at the target
location. Only following Geller's isolation from the experi-
menters was a target chosen and drawn, a procedure designed
to eliminate pre-experiment cueing. Furthermore, to eliminate
the possibility of pre-experiment target forcing, Geller was kept
ignorant as to the identity of the person selecting the target
and as to the method of target selection. This was accomplished
by the use of three different techniques: (1) pseudo-random
technique of opening a dictionary arbitrarily and choosing the
first word that could be drawn (Experiments 1-4); (2) targets,
blind to experimenters and subject, prepared independently by
SRI scientists outside the experimental group (following
Geller's isolation) and provided to the experimenters during
the course of the experiment (Experiments 5-7, 11-13); and (3.
arbitrary selection from a target pool decided upon in advance
of daily experimentation and designed to provide data concern.
ing information content for use in testing specific hypothese:
(Experiments 8-10). Geller's task was to reproduce with per
on paper the line drawing generated at the target location
Following a period of effort ranging from a few minutes to
half an hour, Geller either passed (when he did not feel con
fident) or indicated be was ready to submit a drawing to the
experimenters, in which case the drawing was collected befor
.Geller was permitted to see the target.
To prevent sensory cueing of the target information, Experiment:
1 through 10 were carried out using a shielded room in SRI's facilit
for EEG research. The acoustic and visual isolation is provide
by a double-walled steel room, locked by means of an inner and
outer door, each of which is secured with a refrigerator-type locking
mechanism. Following target selection when Geller was insid.
the room, a one-way audio monitor, operating only from the insid.
to the outside, was activated to monitor Geller during his efforts
The target picture was never discussed by the experimenters after thi
picture was drawn and brought near the shielded room. In ou.
detailed examination of the shielded room and the protocol used in
these experiments, no sensory leakage has been found.
The conditions and results for the 10 experiments carried out in th
shielded room are displayed in Table 1 and Fig. 1. All experimen:
except 4 and 5, were conducted with Geller inside the shielded room
In Experiments 4 and 5, the procedure was reversed. For thos;
experiments in which Geller was inside the shielded room, the targe:
location was in an adjacent room at a distance of about 4 m, excep
for Experiments 3 and 8, in which the target locations were, respec
tively, an office at a distance of 475 m and a room at a distance c:
about 7 m.
A response was obtained in all experiments except Number
5-7. In Experiment 5, the person-to-person link was eliminate:
by arranging for a scientist outside the usual experimenta
group to draw a picture, lock it in the shielded room befor
Geller's arrival at SRI, and leave the area. Geller was then ky
0
...
DEVIL
TARGET
RESPONSE 1
0
TARGET
RESPONSE'
TARGET
RESPONSE 1
RESPONSE 2
RESPONSE 3
a
t
Salma System
TARGET
1
TARGET
TARGET
1
RESPONSE
RESPONSE
RESPONSE
URI GELLER: 88
TARGET
RESPONSE
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g
Fig. 1 Target pictures and responses drawn by Uri Geller under shielded conditions. -
-
60.
. RESPONSE 2
BRIDGE

Nature Vol. 251 October 18 1974
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Experiment
Date
Geller Location
Target Location
Target
Figure
(month, day, year)
1
8/4/73
Shielded room 1'
Adjacent room (4.1 m)t
Firecracker .
Grapes
16
3
8/5/73
Shielded room 1 .
Office (475 m)
Devil
1c
4
8/5/73
Room adjacent to
Shielded room 1
(3.2 m) .
Solar system .
1d
5
8/6/73
Room adjacent to
Rabbit
No drawing
6
8/7/73
Shielded room 1
Adjacent room (4.1 m)
Trcc
7
8/7/73
Shielded room 1
Adjacent room (4.1 m)
Envelope
8
8/8/73
Shielded room 1
Remote room (6.75 m)
Camel
1f
10
8/8/73
Shielded room 1
Adjacent room (4.1 m)
Seagull
1g
11
8/9/73
Shielded room 2}
Computer (54 m)
Kite (computer CRT)
.20
12
8/10/73
Shielded room 2
Computer (54 m)
Computer (54 m)
Arrow through heart
20
(computer CRT, zero
intensity)
*EEG Facility shielded room (see text).
+Perceiver-target distances measured in metres.
#SRI Radio Systems Laboratory shielded room (see text).
-
.
Experiments 6 and 7 were carried out while we attempted to
record Geller's EEG during his efforts to perceive the target
pictures. The target pictures were, respectively, a tree and an
envelope. He found it difficult to hold adequately still for good
EEG records, said .that he experienced difficulty in getting
impressions of the targets and again submitted no drawings.
Experiments 11 through 13 were carried out in SRI's Engin-
cering Building, to make use of the computer facilities available
there. For these experimenters, Geller was secured in a double-
-walled, copper-screen Faraday cage 54 m down the ball and
around the corner from the computer room. The Faraday cage
provides 120 dB attenuation for plane wave radio frequency
radiation over a range of 15 kHz to 1 GHz. For magnetic fields
the attenuation is 68 dB at 15 kHz and decreases to 3 dB at
60 Hz Following Geller's isolation, the targets for these
experiments were chosen by computer laboratory personnel
not otherwise associated with either the experiment or Geller,
and the experimenters and subject were kept blind as to the
contents of the target pool.
For Experiment 11, a picture of a kite was drawn on the face
of a cathode ray tube display screen, driven by the computer's
graphics program. For Experiment 12, a picture of a church
was drawn and stored in the memory of the computer. In
Experiment 13, the target drawing, an arrow through a heart
(Fig. 2c), was drawn on the face of the cathode ray tube and
then the display intensity was turned off so that no picture
was visible.
To obtain an independent evaluation of the correlation be-
tween target and response data, the experimenters submitted
the data for judging on a 'blind' basis by two .SRI scientists
who were not otherwise associated with the research. For the
10 cases in which Geller provided a response, the judges were
asked to match the response data with the corresponding
target data (without replacement). In those cases in which
Geller made more than one drawing as his response to the
target, all the drawings were combined as a set for judging.
The two judges each matched the target data to the response
data with no error. For either judge such a correspondence has
an a priori probability, under the null hypothesis of no in-
formation channel, of P == (10!)-1 = 3 x 10-7.
A second series of experiments was carried out to determine
whether direct perception of envelope contents was possible
without some person knowing of the target picture.
One hundred target pictures of everyday objects were drawn
by an SRI artist and scaled by other SRI personnel in double
.envelopes containing black cardboard. The hundred targets
-were divided randomly into groups of 20 for use in each of the
three days' experiments.
On each of the three days of these experiments, Geller passed.
That is, he declined.to associate any envelope with a drawing
that he made, expressing dissatisfaction with the existence of
such a large target pool. On each day he made approximately 12
recognisable drawings, which he felt were associated with the
entire target pool of 100. On each of the three days, two of his
drawings could reasonably be associated with two of the 20
daily targets. On the third day, two of his drawings were very
close replications of two of that day's target pictures. The
drawings resulting from this experiment do not depart signific-
antly from what would be expected by chance.
In a simpler experiment Geller was successful in obtaining
information under conditions in which no. persons were know-
ledgeable of the target. A double-blind experiment was per-
formed in which a single 3/4 inch die was placed in a 3 x 4 x 5
inch steel box. The box was then vigorously shaken by one of the
experimenters and placed on the table, a technique found in
control runs to produce a distribution of die faces differing non-
significantly from chance. The orientation of the die within the
box was unknown to the experimenters at that time. Geller
would then write down which die face was uppermost. The
target pool was .known, but the targets were individually pre-
pared in a manner blind to all persons involved in the experi-
ment. This experiment was performed ten times, with Geller
passing twice and giving a response eight times. In the eight
times in which he gave a response, he was correct each time.
The distribution of responses consisted of three 2s, one 4, two
5s, and two 6s. The probability of this occurring by chance is
approximately one in 104.
In certain situations significant information transmission can
take place under shielded conditions. Factors which appear to
be important and therefore candidates for future investigation
include whether the subject knows the set of targets in the target
pool, the actual number of targets in the target pool at any
given time, and whether the target is known by any of the
experimenters.
It has been widely reported that Geller has demonstrated the
ability to bend metal by paranormal means. Although metal
bending by Geller has been observed in our laboratory, we have
not been able to combine such observations with adequately
controlled experiments to obtain data sufficient to support the
paranormal hypothesis.
·REMOTE VIEWING OF NATURAL TARGETS
A study by Osis' led us to determine whether a subject could
describe randomly chosen geographical sites located several
miles from the subject's position and demarcated by some
i
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t
-
. ... ..
2
8/4/73
Shielded room 1.
Adjacent room (4.1 m)
shielded room 1
Shielded room 1
(3.2 m)
No drawing
No drawing
9
8/8/73
Shielded room 1
Adjacent room (4.1 m)
Bridge
Church (computer memory)
.
26
13
8/10/73
Shielded room 2
MANNNN
by the experimenters to the shielded room and asked to draw
the picture located inside the room. He said that he got no clear
impression and therefore did not submit a drawing. The elimina-
tion of the person-to-person link was examined further in the
second series of experiments with this subject.
shielded room 1

-
appropriate means (remote viewing). This experiment carried
out willpor
003/04
the experimenters and the subject were kept blind as to the
California polis commissRDP96887800300 were used without replace>
ment.
city councilman, consisted of a series of double-blind, demon-
stration-of-ability tests involving local targets in the San
Francisco Bay area which could be documented by several inde-
pendent judges. We planned the experiment considering that
natural geographical places or man-made sites that have
existed for a long time are more potent targets for paranormal
perception experiments than are artificial targets prepared in the
laboratory. This is based on subject opinions that the use of
artificial targets involves a 'trivialisation of the ability' as com-
pared with natural pre-existing targets.
In each of nine experiments involving Price as subject and
SRI experimenters as a target demarcation team, a remote
location was chosen in a double-blind protocol. Price, who
remained at SRI, was asked to describe this remote location, as
well as whatever. activities might be going on there.
Several descriptions yielded significantly correct data per-
taining to and descriptive of the target location.
In the experiments a set of twelve target locations clearly
differentiated from each other and within 30 min driving time
from SRI had been chosen from a target-rich environment (more
than 100 targets of. the type used in the experimental series)
prior to the experimental series by an individual in SRI manage-
ment, the director of the Information Science and Engineering
Division, not otherwise associated with the experiment. Both
. An experimenter was closeted with Price at SRI to wait 30 min to
`begin the narrative description of the remote location. The SRI
locations from which the subject viewed the remote locations con -.
sisted of an outdoor. park (Experiments 1, 2), the double-walled
copper-screen Faraday cage .discussed carlier (Experiments 3, 4, and
6-9); and an office (Experiment 5). A second experimenter would then
obtain a target location from the Division Director from a set of
travelling orders previously prepared and randomised by the Director
and kept under his control. The target demarcation team (two to
four SRI experimenters) then .proceeded directly to the target by
automobile without communicating with the subject or experimenter
remaining behind. Since the experimenter remaining with the subject
at SRI was in ignorance both as to the particular target and as to
the. target pool, he was free to question Price to clarify his descrip-
tions. The demarcation team then remained at the target site for
30 min after the 30 min allotted for travel. During the observation
period, the remote-viewing subject would describe his impressions of
the target site into a tape recorder. A comparison was then made
when the demarcation team returned.
Price's ability to describe correctly buildings, docks, roads,
gardens and so on, including structural materials, colour,
ambience and activity, sometimes in great detail, indicated the
functioning of a remote perceptual ability. But the descriptions
contained inaccuracies as well as correct statements. To obtain
a numerical evaluation of the accuracy of the remote viewing
experiment, the experimental. results were subjected to inde-
pendent judging on a blind basis by five SRI scientists who were
TARGET
TARGET
TARGET
Gelleer
RESPONSE 1' -1
.. RESPONSE 1
RESPONSE
RESPONSE 2
RESPONSE 2
b
Fl. 2. Computer drawings and responses drawn by. Uri Geller. a, Computer drawing stored on video display; b; computer drawing stored ist.
computer memory only; c, computer drawing stored on video- display . with zero intensity :.
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Table 2 Distribution of correct selections by judges A, B, C, D, and E in remote viewing experiments
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. Descriptions chosen by judges
1
2
3 .
Places visited by judges
4
5
6
7
8
9
Baylands Nature Preserve
Radio Telescope
2
ABC
E
D
A
Redwood City Marina
4
CD
ABDE
E
Bridge Toll Plaza
Drive-In Theatre
5
6
B
A
C
ABCE
AB
Rinconada Park
CE
AL
Of the 45 selections (5 judges, 9 choices), 24 were correct. Bold type indicates the description chosen most often for each place visited. C_
choices lie on the main diagonal. The number of correct matches by Judges A through E is 7, 6, 5, 3, and 3, respectively. The expected nu
of correct matches from the five judges was five; in the experiment 24 such matches were obtained. The a priori probability of such an occurici
by chance, conservatively assuming assignment without replacement on the part of the judges, is P = 8:10-10.
= 1
not otherwise associated with the research. The judges were
asked to match the nine locations, which they independently
visited, against the typed manuscripts of the tape-recorded nar-
ratives of the remote viewer. The transcripts were unlabelled
and presented in random order. The judges were asked to find a
narrative which they would consider the best match for each
of the places they visited. A given narrative could be assigned
to more than one target location. A correct match requires that
the transcript of a given date be associated with the target of
that date. Table 2 shows the distribution of the judges' choices.
Among all possible analyses, the most conservative is a per-
mutation analysis of the plurality vote of the judges' selections
assuming assignment without replacement, an approach inde-
pendent of the number of judges. By plurality vote, six of the
nine descriptions and locations were correctly matched. Under
the null hypothesis (no remote viewing and a random selection
of descriptions without replacement), this outcome bas an a
priori probability of P = 5.6 x 10~, since, among all possible
permutations of the integers one through nine, the probability
of six or more being in their natural position in the list has that
value. Therefore, although Price's descriptions contain in-
accuracies, the descriptions are sufficiently accurate to permit
the judges to differentiate among the various targets to the
degree indicated.
EEG EXPERIMENTS
An experiment was undertaken to determine whether a
physiological measure such as EEG activity could be used as an
indicator of information transmission between an isolated
subject and a remote stimulus. We hypothesised that perception
could be indicated by such a measurt even in the absence of
verbal or other overt indicators."" ?.
It was assumed that the application of remote stimuli would
result in responses similar to those obtained under conditions
of direct stimulation. For example, when normal subjects are
stimulated with a flashing light, their EEG typically shows .a
decrease in the amplitude of the resting rhythm and a driving
of the brain waves at the frequency of the flashes". We hypothe-
sised that if we stimulated one subject in this manner (a sender),
the EEG of another subject in a remote room with no flash
. present (a receiver), might show changes in alpha (9-11 Hz)
activity, and possibly EEG driving similar to that of the sender.
We informed our subject that at certain times a light was to
be flashed in a sender's eyes in a distant room, and if the subject
perceived that event, consciously or unconsciously, it might be
evident from changes in his EEG output. The receiver was
seated in the visually opaque, acoustically. and electrically
shielded double-walled steel room previously described. The
sender was seated in a room about 7 m from the receiver.
To find subjects who were responsive to such a remote
stimulus, we initially worked with four female and two male
volunteer subjects, all of whom believed that success in the
experimental situation might be possible. These were designated
'receivers'. The senders were either other subjects or .!
experimenters. We decided beforehand to run one of tw
sessions of 36 trials each with cach subject in this sele~
procedure, and to do a more extensive study with any sus
whose results were positive.
A Grass PS-2 photostimulator placed about 1 m in front of t
sender was used to present flash trains of 10 s duration. The receive
EEG activity from the occipital region (Oz), referenced to I
mastoids, was amplified with a Grass SP-1 preamplifier and asso
driver amplifier with a bandpass of 1-120 Hz. The EEG data wt
recorded on magnetic tape with an Ampex SP 300 recorder.
On each trial, a tone burst of fixed frequency was presented to bo
sender and receiver and was followed in ene second by either
train of flashes or a null flash interval presented to the sender. T :
six such trials were given in an experimental session, consisting of
null trials-no flashes following the tone -: 2 trials of flashes at 6 f.p
and 12 trials of flashes at 16 f.p.s., all randomly intermixed, dei
mined by entries from a table of random numbers. Each of the i
generated an 11-s EEG epoch. The last 4 s of the epoch was se
for analysis to minimise the desynchronising action of the wami
. cuc. This 4-s segment was subjected to Fourier analysis on a LINO
computer.
Spectrum analyses gave no evidence of EEG driving in any rec
although in control runs the receivers did exhibit driving
physically stimulated with the flashes. But of the six subjects stud
initially, one subject (H. H.) showed a consistent alpha blocking effe
We therefore undertook further study with this subject.
Data from seven sets of 36 trials each. were collected fror
subject on three separate days. This comprises all the data col
to date with this subject under the test conditions described aud
The alpha band was identified from average spectra, then scores
average power and peak power were obtained from individual tri
and subjected to statistical analysis.
Of our six subjects, H. H. had by far the most monochro_
EEG spectrum. Figure 3 shows an overlay of the three averag
spectra from one of this subject's 36-trial runs, displayi
changes in her alpha activity for the three stimulus condi_)
Mean values for the average power and peak power for a
Table 3 EEG data for H.H. showing average power and peak
in the 9-11 Hz band, as a function of flash frequency and
Flash
Frequency
0
6
16
0
6
16
Sender
Average Power
Peak Power
=
J.L.
94.8 84.1 76.8
357.7 329.2 289.6
R.T.
41.3 45.5 37.0
160.7 161.0 125.0
No sender
(subject
informed)
25.1 35.7 28.2
87.5
95.7
81.7
J.L.
54.2 55.3. 44.8
191.4 170.5 149.3
J.L.
56.8 50.9 32.8
240.6 178.0 104.6
R.T.
39.8 24.9 30.3
145.2 74.2 122.1
No sender
(subject
86.0 53.0 52.1
318.1 180.6 202.3
informed)
56.8 49.9 43.1
214.5 169.8 153.5
+12% -24%(P<0.04)
-21 %-28%(P
1
ABCDE
D
3
ACD
BE
.
ABD
DCE
E
Arts and Crafts Garden Plaza
Church
7
8
C
Each entry is an average over 12 trials
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not
Averages
Hoover Tower

Nature Vol. 251 October 18 1974
60
of thassproved par Release 2003/04/18" CIA-RDP96-00789R003100030001-4d it is our hope that other
measures were less in the 16 f.p.s. case than in the 0 I.p.s.
seven peak power measures and in six out of seven average
power measures. Note also the reduced effect in the case in
which the subject was informed that no sender was present
(Run 3). It seems that overall alpha production was reduced
for this run in conjunction with the subject's expressed appre-
hension about conducting the experiment without a sender.
This is in contrast to the case (Run 7) in which the subject was
not informed.
Siegel's two-tailed r approximation to the nonparametric randomi-
sation test' was applied to the data from all sets, which included two
sessions in which the sender was removed. Average power on trials
associated with the occurrence of 16 f.p.s. was significantly less than
when there were no flashes (t = 2.09, d.f. = 118, P <0.04). The
second measure, peak power, was also significantly less in the 16 f.p.s.
conditions than in the null condition (> = 2.16, d.f. = 118, P<0.03).
The average response in the 6 f.p.s. condition was in the same direc-
tion as that associated with 16 f.p.s., but the effect was not statistically
significant.
Spectrum analyses of control recordings made from saline with a
12 ks2 resistance in place of the subject with and without the addi-
tion of a 10 Hz, 50 AV test signal applied to the saline solution,
revealed no indications of flash frequencies, nor perturbations of the
10 Hz signal. These controls suggest that the results were not due to
system artefacts. Further tests also gave no evidence of radio fre-
quency energy associated with the stimulus.
Subjects were asked to indicate their conscious assessment for each
trial as to which stimulus was generated. They made their guesses
known to the experimenter via one-way telegraphic communication.
An analysis of these guesses has shown them to be at chance, in-
dicating the absence of any supraliminal cucing, so arousal as evid-
enced by significant alpha blocking occurred only at the noncognitive
level of awareness.
We hypothesise that the protocol described here may prove to be
useful as a screening procedure for latent remote perceptual ability
in the general population.
0.
Potential (arbitrary units)
00
5. Hz
10 Hz
15 Hz
Fig. 3 Occipital EEG spectra, 0-20 Hz, for one subject (H .. H.)
acting as receiver, showing amplitude changes in the 9-11 Hz
band as a function of strobe frequency. Three cases: 0, 6, and 16
. f.p.s. (12 trial averages) ...:
CONCLUSION
From these experiments. we conclude that:
. A channel exists whereby information about a remote location
can be obtained by means of an as yet unidentified perceptual
modality .:
.As with. all biological. systems, the information channel
appears to be. imperfect, containing noise along with the
signal ..
. While a quantitative signal-to-noise ratio in the information-
theoretical sense cannot as yet be determined, the results of
our experiments indicate that the functioning is at the level
of useful information transfer. .
It may be that remote perceptual ability is widely distributed
in the general population, but because the perception is generally
below an individual's level of awareness, it is repressed or not:
noticed. For example, two of our subjects (H. H. and P. P:) had.
not considered themselves to have unusual. perceptual ability
before their participation in these.experiments."
Our observation of the phenomena leads us to conclude that
experiments in the area of so-called paranormal phenomena car
laboratories will initiate additional research to attempt to
replicate these findings.
This research was sponsored by The Foundation for Parasen
sory Investigation, New York City. We thank Mrs Judith
Skutch, Dr Edgar D. Mitchell of the Institute of Noetic
Sciences-as well as our SRI associates, Mr Bonnar Cox
Mr Earle Jones and Dr Dean Brown-for support and
encouragement. Constructive suggestions by Mrs Jean Mayo
Dr Charles Tart, University of California, and Dr Rober
Omstein and Dr David Galin of the Langley Porter Neuro
psychiatric Institute are acknowledged.
RUSSELL TARG
HAROLD PUTHOFF
Electronics and Bioengineering Laboratory,
Stanford Research Institute,
Menlo Park, California 94025
Received March 11; revised July 8, 1974.
' Pratt, J., Rhine, J. B., Stuart, C., and Greenwood, J., Extr
Sensory Perception after Sixty Years (Henry Holt, Ner
York, 1940).
1 Soal, S., and Bateman, F., Modern Experiments in Telepath
(Faber and Faber, London, 1954).
> Vasiliev, L. L., Experiments in Mental Suggestion (ISMI Pub
lications, Hampshire, England, 1963).
' Musso, J. R., and Granero, M., J. Parapsychology, 37, 13-3
(1973).
$ Osis, K., ASPR Newsletter, No. 14 (1972).
' Tart, C. T., Physiological Correlates of Psi Cognition, Int.
Parapsychology, V, No. 4 (1963).
" Dean, E. D., Int. J. Neuropsychiatry, 2 (1966).
" Hill, D., and Parr, G., Electroencephalography : A Symposium
on its Various Aspects (Macmillan, New York, 1963).
' Siegel, S., Nonparametric Statistics for the Behavior
Sciences, 152-156 (McGraw-Hill, New York, 1956) ..
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.

10
PROCEEDINGS OF THE IEEE. VOL. 64, NO. 3, MARCH 1976
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A Perceptual Channel for Information Transfer
over Kilometer Distances: Historical Perspective
and Recent Research
HAROLD E. PUTHOFF, MEMBER, IEEE, AND RUSSELL TARG, SENIOR MEMBER, IEEE
Abstract-For more than 100 years, scientists have attempted to
determine the truth or falsity of claims for the existence of a perceptual
channel whereby certain individuals are able to perceive and describe
remote data not presented to any known sense. This paper presents an -
outline of the history of scientific inquiry into such so-called paranor-
mal perception and surveys the current state of the art in parapsycho-
logical research in the United States and abroad. The nature of this
perceptual channel is examined in a series of experiments carried out
in the Electronics and Bioengineering Laboratory of Stanford Research
Institute. The perceptual modality most extensively investigated is the
ability of both experienced subjects and inexperienced volunteers to
view, by innate mental processes, remote geographical or technical
targets including buildings, roads. and laboratory apparatus. The ac-
cumulated data indicate that the phenomenon is not a sensitive func-
tion of distance, and Faraday cage shielding does not in any apparent
way degrade the quality and accuracy of perception. On the basis of
this research, some areas of physics are suggested from which a descrip-
tion or explanation of the phenomenon could be forthcoming.
I. INTRODUCTION
[T IS THE PROVINCE of natural science to investigate
nature, impartially and without prejudice" [1]. Nowhere
Lin scientific inquiry has this dictum met as great a chal-
lenge as in the area of so-called extrasensory perception (ESP),
the detection of remote stimuli not mediated by the usual.
sensory processes. Such phenomena, although under scientific
consideration for over a century, have historically been fraught
with unreliability and controversy, and validation of the phe-
nomena by accepted scientific methodology has been slow in
coming. Even so, a recent survey conducted by the British
publication New Scientist revealed that 67 percent of nearly
1500 responding readers (the majority of whom are working
scientists and technologists) considered ESP to be an estab-
lished fact or a likely possibility, and 88 percent held the
investigation of ESP to be a legitimate scientific undertaking
[2].
A review of the literature reveals that although experiments
by reputable researchers yielding positive results were begun
over a century ago (e.g., Sir William Crookes' study of D. D.
Home, 1860's) [3], many consider the study of these phe-
nomena as only recently emerging from the realm of quasi-
science. One reason for this is that, despite experimental
results, no satisfactory theoretical construct had been advanced
to correlate data or to predict new experimental outcomes.
Consequently, the area in question remained for a long time
in the recipe stage reminiscent of electrodynamics before the
unification brought about by the work of Ampere, Faraday.
and Maxwell. Since the early work, however, we have seen the
development of information theory, quantum theo :: , and
neurophysiological research, and these disciplines provide
powerful conceptual tools that appear to bear directly on the
issue. In fact, several physicists (Section V) are now of the
opinion that these phenomena are not at all inconsistent with
the framework of modern physics: the often-held vie= that
observations of this type are a priori incompatible with known
laws is erroneous in that such a concept is based on the naive
realism prevalent before the development of quantum theory.
In the emerging view, it is accepted that research in this area
can be conducted so as to uncover not just a catalog of inter-
esting events, but rather patterns of cause-effect relationships
of the type that lend themselves to analysis and hypothesis
in the forms with which we are familiar in the physical
sciences. One hypothesis is that information transfer under
conditions of sensory shielding is mediated by extremely
low-frequency (ELF) electromagnetic waves, a proposal that
does not seem to be ruled out by any obvious physical or
biological facts. Further, the development of information
theory makes it possible to characterize and quantify the
performance of a communications channel regardless of
the underlying mechanism.
For the past three years, we have had a program in the
Electronics and Bioengineering Laboratory of the Stan-
ford Research Institute (SRI) to investigate those facets of
human perception that appear to fall outside the range of well-
understood perceptual/processing capabilities. Of particular
interest is a human information-accessing capability that we
call "remote viewing." This phenomenon pertains to the
ability of certain individuals to access and describe, by means
of mental processes, information sources blocked from ordi-
nary perception, and generally accepted as secure against such
access.
In particular, the phenomenon we have investigated most
extensively is the ability of a subject to view remote geograph-
ical locations up to several thousand kilometers distant from
his physical location (given only a known person on whom to
target).1
We have carried out more than fifty experiments
under controlled laboratory conditions with several individuals
whose remote perceptual abilities have been developed suf-
ficiently to allow them at times to describe correctly-often in
great detail-geographical or technical material such as build-
ings, roads, laboratory apparatus, and the like.
As observed in the laboratory, the basic phenomenon appears
to cover a range of subjective experiences variously referred to
Manuscript received July 25, 1975; revised November 7, 1975. The
submission of this paper was encouraged after review of an advance
proposal. This work was supported by the Foundation for Parasensory
Investigation and the Parapsychology Foundation, New York, NY; the
Institute of Noetic Sciences, Palo Alto, CA; and the National Aero-
nautics and Space Administration, under Contract NAS 7-100.
The authors are with the Electronics and Bioengineering Laboratory,
Stanford Research Institute, Menlo Park, CA 94025.
' Our initial work in this area was reported in Nature [4], and re-
printed in the IEEE Commun. Soc. Newsletter, vol. 13, Jan. 1975.
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330
PROCEEDINGS OF THE IEEE, MARCH 1976
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AEROPUERTO RESSMICS
Inday
+ /12/93
1:25 - 130
ocean
HongerBIJ,
Airport
DARÁ
BRIGHT
gran
--
Sand
Fig. 1. Airport in San Andres. Colombia, used as remote-viewing target, along with sketch produced by subject
in California.
in the literature as autoscopy (in the medical literature); exteri-
orization or disassociation (psychological literature); simple
clairvoyance, traveling clairvoyance, or out-of-body experience
(parapsychological literature); or astral projection (occult liter-
ature). We choose the term "remote viewing" as a neutral
descriptive term free from prior associations and bias as to
mechanisms.
The development at SRI of a successful experimental pro-
cedure to elicit this capability has evolved to the point where
persons such as visiting government scientists and contract
monitors, with no previous exposure to such concepts, have
learned to perform well; and subjects who have trained over a
one-year period have performed excellently under a variety of
experimental conditions. Our accumulated data thus indicate
that both specially selected and unselected persons can be
assisted in developing remote perceptual abilities up to a
level of useful information transfer.
In experiments of this type, we have three principal findings.
First, we have established that it is possible to obtain signifi-
cant amounts of accurate descriptive information about remote
locations. Second, an increase in the distance from a few
meters up to 4000 km separating the subject from the scene
to be perceived does not in any apparent way degrade the
quality or accuracy of perception. Finally, the use of Faraday
cage electrical shielding does not prevent high-quality descrip-
tions from being obtained.
To build a coherent theory for the explanation of these
phenomena, it is necessary to have a clear understanding of
what constitutes the phenomena. In this paper, we first briefly '
summarize previous efforts in this field in Section II. We then
present in Sections III and IV the results of a series of more
than fifty experiments with nine subjects carried out in our
own laboratory, which represent a sufficiently stable data base
to permit testing of various hypotheses concerning the func-
tioning of this channel. Finally, in Section V, we indicate
those areas of physics and information theory that appear to
be relevant to an understanding of certain aspects of the
phenomena.
First, however, we present an illustrative example generated
in an early pilot experiment. As will be clear from our later
discussion, this is not a "best-ever" example, but rather a
typical sample of the level of proficiency that can be reached
and that we have come to expect in our research.
Three subjects participated in a long-distance experiment
focusing on a series of targets in Costa Rica. These subjects
said they had never been to Costa Rica. In this experiment,
one of the experimenters (Dr. Puthoff ) spent ten days traveling
through Costa Rica on a combination business/pleasure trip.
This information was all that was known to the subject: about
the traveler's itinerary. The experiment called for Dr. Futhoff
to keep a detailed record of his location and activities, includ-
ing photographs of each of seven target days at 1330 PDT.
A total of twelve daily descriptions were collected before the
traveler's return: six responses from one subject, five from
another, and one from a third.
The third subject who submitted the single response supplied
a drawing for a day in the middle of the series. (The subject's
response, together with the photographs taken at the site, are
shown in Fig. 1). Although Costa Rica is a mountainous
country, the subject unexpectedly perceived the traveler at a
beach and ocean setting. With some misgiving, he described an
airport on a sandy beach and an airstrip with the ocean at the
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PUTHOFF AND TARG: PERCEPTUAL CHANNEL FOR INFORMATION TRANSFER
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end (correct). An airport building also was drawn, and shown
to have a large rectangular overhang (correct). The traveler
had taken an unplanned one-day side trip to an offshore island
and at the time of the experiment had just disembarked from a
plane at a small island airport as described by the subject
4000 km away. The sole discrepancy was that the subject's
drawing showed a Quonset-hut type of building in place of the
rectangular structure.
The above description was chosen as an example to illustrate
a major point observed a number of times throughout the
program to be described. Contrary to what may be expected,
a subject's description does not necessarily portray what may
reasonably be expected to be correct (an educated or "safe"
guess), but often runs counter even to the subject's own
expectations.
We wish to stress again that a result such as the above is not
unusual. The remaining submissions in this experiment pro-
vided further examples of excellent correspondences between
target and response. (A target period of poolside relaxation
was identified; a drive through a tropical forest at the base of
a truncated volcano was described as a drive through a jungle
below a large bare table mountain; a hotel-room target descrip-
tion, including such details as rug color, was correct; and so
on.) So as to determine whether such matches were simply
fortuitous-that is, could reasonably be expected on the basis
of chance alone-Dr. Puthoff was asked after he had returned
to blind match the twelve descriptions to his seven target
locations. On the basis of this conservative evaluation proce-
dure, which vastly underestimates the statistical significance
of the individual descriptions, five correct matches were ob-
tained. This number of matches is significant at p = 0.02 by
exact binomial calculation.2
The observation of such unexpectedly high-quality descrip-
tions early in our program led to a large-scale study of the
phenomenon at SRI under secure double-blind conditions (i.e.,
target unknown to experimenters as well as subjects), with
independent random target selection and blind judging. The
results, presented in Sections III and IV, provide strong evi-
dence for the robustness of this phenomenon whereby a
human perceptual modality of extreme sensitivity can detect
complex remote stimuli.
II. BACKGROUND
Although we are approaching the study of these phenomena
as physicists, it is not yet possible to separate ourselves entirely
from the language of the nineteenth century when the labora-
tory study of the paranormal was begun. Consequently, we
continue to use terms such as "paranormal," "telepathy," and.
the like. However, we intend only to indicate a process of
information transfer under conditions generally accepted as
secure against such transfer and with no prejudice or occult
assumptions as to the mechanisms involved. As in any other
scientific pursuit, the purpose is to collect the observables that
result from experiments and to try to determine the functional
relationships between these observables and the laws of physics
as they are currently understood.
" The. probability of a correct daily match by chance for any given
transcript is p = +. Therefore, the probability of at least five correct
matches by chance out of twelve tries can be calculated from
p =
415
i=5
12
{! (12 - f)!
12!
(1)(6) (12-1)
= 0.02.
Organized research into so-called psychic functioning began
roughly in the time of J. J. Thomson, Sir Oliver Lodge, and
Sir William Crookes, all of whom took part in the fourding of
the Society for Psychical Research (SPR) in 1862 in England.
Crookes, for example, carried out his principal investigations
with D. D. Home, a Scotsman who grew up ir: America and
returned to England in 1855 [3]. According to the notebooks
and published reports of Crookes, Home had demonstrated
the ability to cause objects to move without touching them.
We should note in passing that, Home, unlike nost subjects,
worked only in the light and spoke out in the strongest pos-
sible terms against the darkened seance rooms popula: at the
time [5].
Sir William Crookes was a pioneer in the study of ejectrical
discharge in gases and in the development of vacuum tubes,
some types of which still bear his name. Although everything
Crookes said about electron beams and plasmas was accepted,
nothing he said about the achievements of D. D. Home ever
achieved that status. Many of his colleagues, who had not
observed the experiments with Home, stated publicly thit they
thought Crookes had been deceived, to which Crookes ingrily
responded:
Will not my critics give me credit for some amount of common
sense? Do they not imagine that the obvious precautions, which
occur to them as soon as they sit down to pick holes in my
experiments, have occurred to me also in the course of my pro-
longed and patient investigation? The answer to this, as :: all
other objections is, prove it to be an error, by showing where
the error, lies, or if a trick, by showing how the rick is per-
formed. Try the experiment fully and fairly. If then frau be
found, expose it; if it be a truth, proclaim it. This is the :nly
scientific procedure, and it is that I propose steadily to pursue
[3].
In the United States, scientific interest in the paranormal
was centered in the universities. In 1912, John Coover [6]
was established in the endowed Chair of Psychical Research at
Stanford University. In the 1920's, Harvard University set up
research programs with George Estabrooks and L. T. Troland
[7], [8]. It was in this framework that, in 1930, William
McDougall invited Dr. J. B. Rhine and Dr. Lovisa Riine to
join the Psychology Department at Duke University [9]. For
more than 30 years, significant work was carried out at Rhine's
Duke University Laboratory. To examine the existence of
paranormal perception, he used the now-famous ESF cards
containing a boldly printed picture of a star, cross, square,
circle, or wavy lines. Subjects were asked to name the order
of these cards in a freshly shuffled deck of twenty-five such
cards. To test for telepathy, an experimenter would bok at
the cards one at a time, and a subject suitably separate: from
the sender would attempt to determine which card was being
viewed.
Dr. J. B. Rhine together with Dr. J. G. Pratt carried out
thousands of experiments of this type under widely varying
conditions [10]. The statistical results from these experiments
indicated that some individuals did indeed possess a paranor-
mal perceptual ability in that it was possible to obtain an
arbitrarily high degree of improbability by continued testing
of a gifted subject.
The work of Rhine has been challenged on many grounds,
however, including accusations of improper handling of statis-
tics, error, and fraud. With regard to the statistici, the general
. consensus of statisticians today is that if fault is to be found
in Rhine's work, it would have to be on other than statistical
grounds [11]. With regard to the accusations of fraud, the
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most celebrated case of criticism of Rhine's work, that of
G. R. Price [12], ended 17 years after it began when the
accusation of fraud was retracted by its author in an article .
entitled "Apology to Rhine and Soal," published in the same
journal in which it was first put forward [13]. It should also
be noted that parapsychological researchers themselves re-
cently exposed fraud in their own laboratory when they
encountered it [14].
At the end of the 1940's, Prof. S. G. Soal, an English mathe-
matician working with the SPR, had carried out hundreds of
card guessing experiments involving tens of thousands of calls
[15]. Many of these experiments were carried out over ex-
tended distances. One of the most notable experiments was
conducted with Mrs. Gloria Stewart between London and
Antwerp. This experiment gave results whose probability of
occurring by chance were less than 10"s. With the publication
of Modern Experiments in Telepathy by Soal and Bateman
(both of whom were statisticians), it appeared that card guess-
ing experiments produced significant results, on the average.3
The most severe criticism of all this work, a criticism diffi-
cult to defend against in principle, is that leveled by the well-
known British parapsychological critic C. E. M. Hansel [17],
who began his examination of the ESP hypothesis with the
stated assumption, "In view of the a priori arguments against
it we know in advance that telepathy, etc., cannot occur."
Therefore, based on the "a priori unlikelihood" of ESP,
Hansel's examination of the literature centered primarily on
the possibility of fraud. by subjects or investigators. He
reviewed in depth four experiments which he regarded as
providing the best evidence of ESP: the Pearce-Pratt distance
series [18]; the Pratt-Woodruff [19] series, both conducted
at Duke; and Soal's work with Mrs. Stewart and Basil Shackle-
ton [15], as well as a more recent series by Soal and Bowden
[20]. Hansel showed, in each case, how fraud could have been
committed (by the experimenters in the Pratt-Woodruff and
Soal-Bateman series, or by the subjects in the Pearce-Pratt
and Soal-Bowden experiments). He gave no direct evidence
that fraud was committed in these experiments, but said, "If
the result could have arisen through a trick, the experiment
must be considered unsatisfactory proof of ESP, whether or
not it is finally decided that such a trick was in fact used" [17,
p. 18]. As discussed by Honorton in a review of the field
[21], Hansel's conclusion after 241 pages of careful scrutiny
therefore was that these experiments were not "fraud-proof"
and therefore in principle could not serve as conclusive proof
of ESP.
Even among the supporters of ESP research and its results,
there remained the consistent problem that many successful
subjects eventually lost their ability and their scores gradually
drifted toward chance results. This decline effect in no way
erased their previous astronomical success; but it was a disap-
pointment since if paranormal perception is a natural ability,
one would like to see subjects improving with practice rather
than getting worse.
One of the first successful attempts to overcome the decline
effect was in Czechoslovakia in the work of Dr. Milan Ryzl, a
chemist with the Institute of Biology of the Czechoslovakian
Academy of Science and also an amateur hypnotist [22].
Through the use of hypnosis, together with feedback and
'Recently, some of the early Soal experiments have been criticized
.[16]. However, his long-distance experiments cited here were judged '
in a double-blind fashion of the type that escaped the criticism of the
early experiments ..
reinforcement, he developed several outstanding subjects, one
of whom, Pavel Stepanek, has worked with experimenters
around the world for more than 10 years.
Ryzl's pioneering work came as an answer to the questions
raised by the 1956 CIBA Foundation conference on extra-
sensory perception. The CIBA Chemical Company has annual
meetings on topics of biological and chemical interest, and
that same year they assembled several prominent parapsy-
chologists to have a state-of-the-art conference on ES? [23].
The conference concluded that little progress would be made
in parapsychology research until a repeatable experiment
could be found; namely, an experiment that different experi-
menters could repeat at will and that would reliably yield a
statistically significant result.
Ryzl had by 1962 accomplished that goal. His primary con-
tribution was a decision to interact with the subject as a per-
son, to try to build up his confidence and ability. His protocol
depended on "working with" rather than "running" his sub-
jects. Ryzl's star subject, Pavel Stepanek, has produced highly
significant results with many contemporary researchers [24]-
[29]. In these experiments, he was able to tell with 60-percent
reliability whether, a hidden card was green side or white
side up, yielding statistics of a million to one with only a
thousand trials.
As significant as such results are statistically, the information
channel is imperfect, containing noise along with the signal.
When considering how best to use such a channel, one is led
to the communication theory concept of the introduction of
redundancy as a means of coding a message to combat the
effects of a noisy channel [30]. A prototype experiment by
Ryzl using such techniques has proved to be successful. Ryzi
had an assistant select randomly five groups of three digits
each. These 15 digits were then encoded into binary form and
translated into a sequence of green and white cards in sealed
envelopes. By means of repeated calling and an elaborate
majority vote protocol, Ryzl was able after 19 350 calls by
Stepanek (averaging 9 s per call) to correctly identify all 15
numbers, a result significant at p = 10-15
The hit rate for :
individual calls was 61.9 percent, 11 978 hits, and 7372 misses
[31].
Note Added in Proof: It has been brought to our attention
that a similar procedure was recently used to transmit without
error the word "peace" in International Morse Code (J. C.
Carpenter, "Toward the effective utilization of enhanced
weak-signal ESP effects," presented at the Annual Meeting of
the American Association for the Advancement of Science,
New York, NY, Jan, 27, 1975).
The characteristics of such a channel can be specified in
accordance with the precepts of communication theory. The
bit rate associated with the information channel is calculated
from [30]
R = H(x) - Hy(x)
(1)
where H(x) is the uncertainty of the source message containing
symbols with a priori probability pi :
H(x) =-
pi log2 Pi
(2)
and Hy(x) is the conditional entropy based on the a posteriori
probabilities that a received signal was actually transmitted:
Hy (x) ==
i,j=1
p(i, j) log2 Pi(i).
(3)
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For Stepanek's run, with pi = {, pj() = 0.619, and an average
time of 9 s per choice, we have a source uncertainty H(x) = 1
bit and a calculated bit rate
R = 0.041 bit/symbol
R/T = 0.0046 bit/s.
(Since the 15-digit number (49.8 bits) actually was transmitted
at the rate of 2.9 X 10-4 bit/s, an increase in bit rate by a
factor of about 20 could be expected on the basis of a coding
scheme more optimum than that used in the experiments. See,
for example, Appendix A.)
Dr. Charles Tart at the University of California has written
extensively on the so-called decline effect. He considers that
having subjects attempt to guess cards, or perform any other
repetitious task for which they receive no feedback, follows
the classical technique for deconditioning any response. He.
thus considers card guessing "a technique for extinguishing
psychic functioning in the laboratory" [32].
Tart's injunctions of the mid-sixties were being heeded at
Maimonides Hospital, Brooklyn, NY, by a team of researchers
that included Dr. Montague Ullman, who was director of
research for the hospital; Dr. Stanley Krippner; and, later,
Charles Honorton. These three worked together for several
years on experiments on the occurrence of telepathy in dreams.
In the course of a half-dozen experimental series, they found
in their week-long sessions a number of subjects who had
dreams that consistently were highly descriptive of pictorial
material that a remote sender was looking at throughout the
night. This work is described in detail in the experimenters'
book Dream Telepathy [33]. Honorton is continuing work
of this free-response type in which the subject has no precon-
ceived idea as to what the target may be.
In his more recent work with subjects in the waking state,
Honorton is providing homogeneous stimulation to the subject
who is to describe color slides viewed by another person in a
remote room. In this new work, the subject listens to white
noise via earphones and views an homogeneous visual field
imposed through the use of Ping-Pong ball halves to cover the
subject's eyes in conjunction with diffuse ambient illumina-
tion. In this so-called Ganzfeld setting, subjects are again able,
now in the waking state, to give correct and often highly
accurate descriptions of the material being viewed by the
sender [34].
In Honorton's work and elsewhere, it apparently has been
the step away from the repetitive forced-choice experiment
that has opened the way for a wide variety of ordinary people
to demonstrate significant functioning in the laboratory, with-
out being bored into a decline effect.
This survey would be incomplete if we did not indicate
certain aspects of the current state of research in the USSR.
It is clear from translated documents and other sources [35]
that many laboratories in the USSR are engaged in paranormal
research.
Since the 1930's, in the laboratory of L. Vasiliev (Leningrad
Institute for Brain Research), there has been an interest in the
use of telepathy as a method of influencing the behavior of a
person at a distance. In Vasiliev's book Experiments in Mental
Suggestion, he makes it very clear that the bulk of his labora-
tory's experiments were aimed at long-distance communica-
tion combined with a form of behavior modification; for
'example, putting .people at a distance to sleep through hyp-
nosis [36].
Similar behavior modification types of experiments have been
carried out in recent times by I. M. Kogan, Chairman of the
Bioinformation Section of the Moscow Board of the Popov
Society. He is a Soviet engineer who, until 1969, published
extensively on the theory of telepathic communication [37]-
[40]. He was concerned with three principal kinds of experi-
ments: mental suggestion without hypnosis over short dis-
tances, in which the percipient attempts to identify an object;
mental awakening over short distances, in which a subject is
awakened from a hypnoti: sleep at the "beamed" suggestion
from the hypnotist; and long-range (intercity) telepathic com-
munication. Kogan's main interest has been to quantify the
channel capacity of the paranormal channel. He finds that the
bit rate decreases from 0 .: bit/s for laboratory experiments
to 0.005 bit/s for his 1000-km intercity experiments.
In the USSR, serious consideration is given to the hypothesis
that telepathy is mediated by extremely low-frequency (ELF)
electromagnetic propagation. (The pros and cons of this
hypothesis are discussed in Section V of this paper.) In
general, the entire field of paranormal research in the USSR
is part of a larger one concerned with the interaction between
electromagnetic fields and living organisms [41], [42]. At
the First International Congress on Parapsychology and
Psychotronics in Prague, Czechoslovakia, in 1973, for example,
Kholodov spoke at length. about the susceptibility of living
systems to extremely low-level ac and de fields. He described
conditioning effects on the behavior of fish resulting from the
application of 10 to 100 AW of RF to their tank [43]. The
USSR take these data seriously in that the Soviet safety re-
quirements for steady-state microwave exposure set limits
at 10 uW/cm2, whereas the United States has set a steady-state
limit of 10 mW/cm2 [44]. Kholodov spoke also about the
nonthermal effects of microwaves on animals' central nervous
systems. His experiments were very carefully carried out and
are characteristic of a new dimension in. paranormal research.
The increasing importance of this area in Soviet research was
indicated recently when the Soviet Psychological Association
issued an unprecedented position paper calling on the Soviet
Academy of Sciences to step up efforts in this area [45].
They recommended that the newly formed Psychological
Institute within the Soviet Academy of Sciences and the
Psychological Institute of the Academy of Pedagogical Sciences
review the area and consider the creation of a new laboratory
within one of the institutes to study persons with unusual
abilities. They also recommended a comprehensive evaluation
of experiments and theory by the Academy of Sciences' Insti-
tute of Biophysics and Institute for the Problems of Informa-
tion Transmission.
The Soviet research, along with other behavioristically
oriented work, suggests that in addition to obtaining overt
responses such as verbalizations or key presses from a subject,
it should be possible to obtain objective evidence of informa-
tion transfer by direct measurement of physiological parame-
ters of a subject. Kamiya, Lindsley, Pribram, Silverman,
Walter, and others brought together to discuss physiological
methods to detect ESP functioning, have suggested that a
whole range of electroencephalogram (EEG) responses such as
evoked potentials (EP's), spontaneous EEG, and the contingent
negative variation (CNV) might be sensitive indicators of the
detection of remote stimuli not mediated by usual sensory
processes [46].
Early experimentation of this type was carried out by
Douglas Dean at the Newark College of Engineering. In his
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search for physiological correlates of information transfer, he
used the plethysmograph to measure changes in the blood
volume in a finger, a sensitive indicator of autonomic nervous
system functioning [47]. A plethysmographic measurement
was made on the finger of a subject during telepathy experi-
ments. A sender looked at randomly selected target cards
consisting of names known to the subject, together with names
unknown to him (selected at random from a telephone book).
The names of the known people were contributed by the sub-
ject and were to be of emotional significance to him. Dear.
found significant changes in the chart recording of finger
blood volume when the remote sender was looking at those
names known to the subject as compared with those names
randomly chosen.
Three other experiments using the physiological approach.
have now been published. The first work by Tart [48], a later
work by Lloyd [49], and most recently the work by the
authors [4] all follow a similar procedure. Basically, a subject
is closeted in an electrically shielded room while his EEG is
recorded. Meanwhile, in another laboratory, a second person
is stimulated from time to time, and the time of that stimulus
is marked on the magnetic-tape recording of the subject's EEG.
The subject does not know when the remote stimulus periods
are as compared with the nonstimulus periods.
With regard to choice of stimulus for our own experimenta-
tion, we noted that in previous work others had attempted,
without success, to detect evoked potential changes in a sub-
ject's EEG in response to a single stroboscopic flash stimulus
observed by another subject [50]. In a discussion of that .
experiment, Kamiya suggested that because of the unknown
temporal characteristics of the information channel, it might
be more appropriate to use repetitive bursts of light to increase
the probability of detecting information transfer [51]. There-
fore, in our study we chose to use a stroboscopic flash train of
10-s duration as the remote stimulus.
In the design of the study, we assumed that the application
of the remote stimulus would result in responses similar to
those obtained under conditions of direct stimulation. For
example, when an individual is stimulated with a low-
frequency (< 30 Hz) flashing light, the EEG typically shows
a decrease in the amplitude of the resting rhythm and a
driving of the brain waves at the frequency of the flashes [52].
We hypothesized that if we stimulated one subject in this
manner (a putative sender), the EEG of another subject in a
remote room with no flash present (a receiver) might show
changes in alpha (9-11 Hz) activity and possibly an. EEG
driving similar to that of the sender, or other coupling to the
sender's EEG [53]. The receiver was seated in a visually
opaque, acoustically and electrically shielded, double-walled
steel room about 7 m from the sender. The details of the
experiment, consisting of seven runs of thirty-six 10-s trials
each (twelve periods each for 0-Hz, 6-Hz, and 16-Hz stimuli,
randomly intermixed), are presented in [4]. This experiment
proved to be successful. The receiver's alpha activity (9-11 Hz)
showed a significant reduction in average power (-24 percent,
p< 0.04) and peak power (-28 percent, p < 0.03) during
16-Hz flash stimuli as compared with periods of no-flash
stimulus. [A similar response was observed for 6-Hz stimuli
(-12 percent in average power, -21 percent in peak power),
but the latter result did not reach statistical significance.]
Fig. 2 shows an overlay of three averaged EEG spectra from
"one of the subject's 36 trial runs, displaying differences in
alpha activity during the three stimulus conditions. Extensive
control procedures were undertaken to determine if these
VOLTAGE --- arbitrary units
0
- 6
-- 16
5 Hz
10 Hz
15 Hz
Fig. 2. Occipital EEG frequency spectra, 0-20 Hz, of one subject (H.H.)
acting as receiver showing amplitude changes in the 9-11-Hz band zi a
function of strobe frequency. Three cases: 0 .. 6-, and 16.Hz flashes
(twelve trial averages).
results were produced by system artifacts, electromagnetic
pickup (EMI), or subtle cueing; the results were negative [4].
As part of the experimental protocol, the subject was asked
to indicate a conscious assessment for each trial (via telegraph
key) as to the nature of the stimulus; analysis showed these
guesses to be at chance. Thus arousal as evidenced by signifi-
cant alpha blocking occurred only at the noncognitive level of
physiological response. Hence the experiment provided direst
physiological (EEG) evidence of perception of remote stimuli
even in the absence of overt cognitive response.
Whereas in our experiments we used a remote light flash at a
stimulus, Tart [48] in his work used an electrical shock :o
himself as sender, and Lloyd [49] simply told the sender to
think of a red triangle each time a red warning light was
illuminated within his view. Lloyd observed a consistent
evoked potential in his subjects; whereas in our experiments
and in Tart's, a reduction in amplitude and a desynchronize-
tion of alpha was observed -an arousal response. (If a subject
is resting in an alpha-dominant condition and he is then
stimulated, for example in any direct manner, one will observe
a desynchronization and decrease in alpha power.) We con-
sider that these combined results are evidence for the existence
of noncognitive awareness of remote happenings and that they
have a profound implication for paranormal research.
III. SRI INVESTIGATIONS OF REMOTE VIEWING
Experimentation in remote viewing began during studies
carried out to investigate the abilities of a New York artist,
Ingo Swann, when he expressed the opinion that the insights
gained during experiments at SRI had strengthened his ability
(verified in other research before he joined the SRI program)
to view remote locations [54]. To test Mr. Swann's asser-
tion, a pilot study was set up in which a series of targets from
around the globe were supplied by SRI personnel to the ex-
perimenters on a double-blind. basis. Mr. Swann's apparent
ability to describe correctly details of buildings, roads,
bridges, and the like indicated that it may be possible for
a subject by means of mental imagery to access and describe
randomly chosen geographical sites located several miles
from the subject's position and demarcated by some appro-
priate means. Therefore, we set up a research program to
test the remote-viewing hypothesis under rigidly controlled
scientific conditions.
In carrying out this program, we concentrated on what we
considered to be our principal responsibility-to resolve under
unambiguous conditions the basic issue of whether or not this
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class of paranormal perception phenomenon exists. At all
times, we and others responsible for the overall program took
measures to prevent sensory leakage and subliminal cueing and
to prevent deception, whether intentional or unintentional.
To ensure evaluations independent of belief structures of both
experimenters and judges, all experiments were carried out
under a protocol, described below, in which target selection at
the beginning of experiments and blind judging of results at
the end of experiments were handled independently of the
researchers engaged in carrying out the experiments.
Six subjects, designated S1 through S6, were chosen for the
study. Three were considered as gifted or experienced subjects
(S1 through S3), and three were considered as learners (S4
through S6). The c priori dichotomy between gifted and
learners was based on the experienced group having been
successful in other studies conducted before this program
and the learners group being inexperienced with regard to .
paranormal experimentation.
The study consisted of a series of double-blind tests with
local targets in the San Francisco Bay Area so that several in-
dependent judges could visit the sites to establish documenta-
tion. The protocol was to closet the subject with an experi-
menter at SRI and at an agreed-on time to obtain. from the
subject a description of an undisclosed remote site being
visited by a target team. In each of the experiments, one of
the six program subjects served as remote-viewing subject,
and SRI experimenters served as a target demarcation team at
the remote location chosen in a double-blind protocol as
follows.
In each experiment, SRI management randomly chose a
target location from a list of targets within a 30-min driving
time from SRI; the target location selected was kept blind to
subject and experimenters. The target pool consisted of more
than 100 target locations chosen from a target-rich environ-
ment. (Before the experimental series began, the Director of
the Information Science and Engineering Division, not other-
wise associated with the experiment, established the set of lo-
cations as the target pool which remained known only to him.
The target locations were printed on cards sealed in envelopes
and kept in the SRI Division office safe. They were available
only with the personal assistance of the Division Director who
issued a single random-number selected target card that con-
stituted the traveling orders for that experiment.)
In detail: To begin the experiment, the subject was closeted
with an experimenter at SRI to wait 30 min before beginning
a narrative description of the remote location. A second ex-
perimenter then obtained from the Division Director a target
location from a set of traveling orders previously prepared and
randomized by the Director and kept under his control. The
target demarcation team, consisting of two to four SRI experi-
menters, then proceeded by automobile directly to the target
without any communication with the subject or experimenter
remaining behind. The experimenter remaining with the sub-
ject at SRI was kept ignorant of both the particular target and
the target pool so as to eliminate the possibility of cueing
(overt or subliminal) and to allow him freedom in questioning
the subject to clarify his descriptions. The demarcation team
remained at the target site for an agreed-on 15-min period
following the 30 min allotted for travel.4 During the observa-
tion period, the remote-viewing subject was asked to describe
his impressions of the target site into a tape recorder ind to
make any drawings he thought appropriate. An informal com-
parison was then made when the demarcation team returned,
and the subject was taken to the site to provide feedback.
A. Subject SI : Experienced
To begin the series, Pat Price, a former California police com-
missioner and city councilman, participated a: a subject in
nine experiments.
In general, Price's ability to describe
correctly buildings, docks, roads, gardens, and the like, includ-
ing structural materials, color, ambience, and activity-often
in great detail-indicated the functioning of a remote per-
ceptual ability. A Hoover Tower target, for example. was
recognized and named by name. Nonetheless, i: general, the
descriptions contained inaccuracies as well as correct state-
ments. A typical example is indicated by the subject's drawing
shown in Fig. 3 in which he correctly described a park-like
area containing two pools of water: one rectangular, 50 by
89 ft (actual dimensions 75 by 100 ft); the cther circular,
diameter 120 ft (actual diameter 110 ft). He incorrectly indi-
cated the function, however, as water filtration rather than
recreational swimming. (We often observe essencially correct
descriptions of basic elements and patterns coupled with in-
complete or erroneous analysis of function.) A: can be seen
from his drawing, he also included some elements, such as
the tanks shown in the upper right, that are not present at the
target site. We also note an apparent left-right jeversal, often
observed in paranormal perception experiments.
To obtain a numerical evaluation of the accuracy of the
remote-viewing experiment, the experimental results were
subjected to independent judging on a blind bass by a: SRI
research analyst not otherwise associated with the research.
The subject's response packets, which contained the nine
typed unedited transcripts of the tape-recorded narratives
along with any associated drawings, were unlabeled and pre-
sented in random order. While standing at each target loca-
tion, visited in turn, the judge was required to blind rank order
the nine packets on a scale 1 to 9 (best to worst match). The
statistic of interest is the sum of ranks assigned to the target-
associated transcripts, lower values indicating benzer matches.
For nine targets, the sum of ranks could range from nine to
eighty-one. The probability that a given sum of ranks s or
less will occur by chance is given by [55]
Pr (s or less) =
1
i=n 1=0
'(*)(*
14
(-1)'
(i- N- 1)
n - 1
where s is obtained sum of ranks, N is number of assignable
ranks, n is number of occasions on which rankings were made,
and / takes on values from zero to the least positive integer k
in (i-n)/n. (Table I is a table to enable easy application of
the above formula to those cases in which N = n.) The sum in
this case, which included seven direct hits out of the nine, was
16 (see Table II), a result significant at p = 2.9 × 10-$ by
exact calculation.
In Experiments 3, 4, and 6 through 9, the subject was se-
cured in a double-walled copper-screen Faraday cage. The
Faraday cage provides 120-dB attenuation for plane-wave
radio-frequency radiation over a range of 15 kHz to 1 GHz.
For magnetic fields, the attenuation is 68 dB at 15 k-Hz and
decreases to 3 dB at 60 Hz. The results of rank order judging
(Table II) indicate that the use of Faraday cage electrical
4The first subject (SI) was allowed 30 min for his descriptions, but .
it was found that he fatigued and had little comment after the first 15
min. The viewing. time was therefore reduced to' 15 min for subjects
S2 through S6.
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TANK.
2 /m
THOUS
AVE.
TENNIS COURTS
ELECT.
DIST.
76
110
: -
100
PLAY
GROUNDS
POOL HOUSE
CONCRETE BLOCK
SERVICE
YARD
FIRE
STATION
PICNIC AREA/
RD.
-
-n
(a)
(b)
Fig. 3. Swimming pool complex as remote-viewing target. (a) City map of target location. (b) Drawing by Price (S1).
TABLE I
CRITICAL VALUES OF SUMS OF RANKS FOR PREFERENTIAL MATCHING
Probability (one-tailed) that the Indicated Sum of Ranks or Less Would Occur by Chance
Number of
Assignable
Ranks (N)
0.20
0.10: 0.05
0.04
0.025
0.01
0,005
0.002
0.001
0.0005
10-4
10~5
10-6
10-7
4
7
6
5
5
4
4
5
11
10
9
8
8
7
6
6
5
5
6
16
15
13
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
7
22
20
18
18
17
15
14
12
12
11
9
8
8
29
27
24
24
22
20
19
17
16
15
13
11
9
8
9
37
34
31
30
29
26
24
22
21
20
17
14
12
10
10
46
42
39
38
36
33
31
29
27
25
22
19
16
13
11
56
51
48
47
45
41
38
36
34
32
28
24
20
17
12
67
61
58
56
54
49
47
43
41
39
35
30
25
22
Note: This table applies only to those special cases in which the number of occasions on which objects
are being ranked (n) is equal to the number of assignable ranks (N). Each entry represents the largest
number that is significant at the indicated p-level. Source: R. L. Morris [55] .
shielding does not prevent high-quality descriptions from being
obtained.
As a backup judging procedure, a panel of five additional
SRI scientists not otherwise associated with the research were
asked simply to blind match the unedited typed transcripts
(with associated drawings) generated by the remote viewer
against the nine target locations which they independently
visited in turn. The transcripts were unlabeled and presented
in random order. A correct match consisted of a transcript
of a given date being matched to the target of that date. In-
stead of the expected number of 1 match each per judge, the
number of correct matches obtained by the five judges was 7,.
.6, 5, 3, and 3, respectively. Thus, rather than the expected
total number of 5 correct matches from the judges, 24 such
matches were obtained.
B. Subject S4: Learner
This experiment was designed to be a replication of our pre-
vious experiment with Price, the first replication attempted.
The subject for this experiment was Mrs. Hella Hammid, a
gifted professional photographer. She was selected for this"
series on the basis of her successful performance as a per-
cipient in the EEG experiment described earlier. Outside of
that interaction, she had no previous experience with apparent
paranormal functioning.
At the time we began working with Mrs. Hammid, she had
no strong feelings about the likelihood of her ability to suc-
ceed in this task.
This was in contrast to both Ingo Swann
who had come to our laboratory fresh from a lengthy and
apparently successful series of experiments with Dr. Gertrude
Schmeidler at City College of New York [56] and Pat Price
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SOME YARD,
SPEED of WHAT quy
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PEDESTRIAN OVERPASS TARGET
-
Fig. 4. Subject Hammid (S4) drawing, described as "some kind of diagonal trough up in the air."
TABLE II
DISTRIBUTION OF RANKINGS ASSIGNED TO TRANSCRIPTS
ASSOCIATED WITH EACH TARGET LOCATION FOR EXPERIENCED
SUBJECT PRICE (SI)
Target Location
Distance
(km)
Rank of
Associated
Transcript
Hoover Tower, Stanford
3.4
Baylands Nature Preserve, Palo Alto
6.4
1
Radio telescope, Portola Valley
6.2
1
Marina, Redwood City
6.8
1
Bridge toll plaza, Fremont
14.5
6
Drive-in theater, Palo Alto
5.1
1
Arts and Crafts Plaza, Menlo Park
1.9
1
Catholic Church, Portola Valley
8.5
3
Swimming pool complex, Palo Alto
3.4
1
Total sum of ranks
16
(p=2.9x10-5)
who felt that he used his remote-viewing ability in his every-
day life.
In comparison with the latter two, many people are more
influenced by their environment and are reluctant under
public scrutiny to attempt activities that are generally thought
to be impossible. Society often provides inhibition and nega-
tive feedback to the individual who might otherwise have
explored his own nonregular perceptual ability. We all share
an historical tradition of "the stoning of prophets and the
burning of witches" and, in more modern times, the hospitaliza-
· tion of those who claim to perceive things that the majority do
not admit to. seeing. Therefore, in addition to maintaining
scientific rigor, one of our primary tasks as researchers is to
provide an environment in which the subject feels safe to
explore the possibility of paranormal perception. With a new
subject, we also try to stress the nonuniqueness of the ability
because from our experience paranormal functioning appears
to be a latent ability that all sutjects can articulate to some
degree.
Because of Mrs. Hammid's artistic background, she was ca-
pable of drawing and describing visual images that she could
not identify in any cognitive or analytic sense. When the target
demarcation team went to a target location which was a
pedestrian overpass, the subject said that she saw "a kind of
trough up in the air," which she indicated in the upper part
of her drawing in Fig. 4. She went on to explain, "If you
stand where they are standing you will see something like
this," indicating the nested squares at the bottom of Fig. 4.
As it turned out, a judge standing where she indicated would
have a view closely resembling what she had drawn, as can be
seen from the accompanying photographs of the target loca-
tion. It needs to be emphasized, however, that judges did not
have access to our photographs of the site, used here for
illustrative purposes only, but rather they proceeded to each
of the target locations by list.
In another experiment, the subject described seeing "an
open barnlike structure with a pitched roof." She also saw
a "kind of slatted side to the structure making light and dark
bars on the wall.". Her drawing and a photograph of the
associated bicycle shed target are shown in Fig. 5. (Subjects
are encouraged to make drawings of anything they visualize
and associate with the remote location because drawings they
make are in general more accurate than their verbal description.)
As in the original series with Price, the results of the nine-
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BICYCLE SHED TARGET
DETAIL OF BICYCLE SHED
0
Shine
-
.
i
Fig. 5. Subject Hammid (S4) response to bicycle shed target described as an open "barn-like building" with "slats
on the sides" and a "pitched roof."
TABLE III
DISTRIBUTION OF RANKINGS ASSIGNED TO TRANSCRIPTS ASSOCIATED
WITH EACH TARGET LOCATION FOR LEARNER SUBJECT HAMMID (S4)
Target Location
Distance
Rank of
Associated
Transcript
Methodist Church, Palo Alto
1.9
1
Ness Auditorium, Menlo Park
0.2
1
Merry-go-round, Palo Alto
3.4
1
Parking garage, Mountain View
8.1
2
SRI International Courtyard, Menlo Park
0.2
1
Bicycle shed, Menlo Park
0.1
2
Raffroad trestle bridge, Palo-Alto
1.3
2
Pumpkin patch, Menlo Park
1.3
1
Pedestrian overpass, Palo Alto
5.0
2
Total sum of ranks
13
(p=1.8x10-")
Again, as a backup judging procedure, a panel of five addi-
tional judges not otherwise associated with the research
were asked simply to blind match the unedited typed :ran-
scripts and associated drawings generated by the remote viewer,
against the nine target locations which they independently
visited in turn. A correct match consisted of a transcript of
a given date being matched to the target of that date. In-
stead of the expected number of I match each per judge,
the number of correct matches obtained by the five judges
was 5, 3, 3, 2, and 2, respectively. Thus, rather than the ex-
pected total number of 5 correct matches from the judges,
15 such matches were obtained.
C. Subject: S2 and S3: Experienced
Having completed a series of 18 remote-viewing experiments,
9 each with experienced subject S1 (Price) and learne: S4
(Hammid), additional replication experiments, four with each
subject, were carried out with experienced subjects S 2 (Eigin)
and S3 (Swann) and learners S5 and S6. To place the judging
on a basis comparable to that used with S1 and S4, the four
transcripts each of experienced subjects S2 and S3 were com-
bined into a group of eight for rank order judging to be com-
pared with the similarly combined results of the learners
S5 and S6.
The series with S2 (Elgin, an SRI research analyst) provided
a further example of the dichotomy between verbal and draw-
ing responses. (As with medical literature, case histories often
are more illuminating than the summary of results.) The ex-
periment described here was the third conducted with this
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experiment series were submitted for independent judging on
a blind basis by an SRI research analyst not otherwise associ-
ated with the research. While at each target location, visited
in turn, the judge was required to blind rank order the nine
unedited typed manuscripts of the tape-recorded narratives,
along with any associated drawings generated by the remote
viewer, on a scale 1 to 9 (best to worst match). The sum of
ranks assigned to the target-associated transcripts in this case
was 13, a result significant at p = 1.8.X 10-6 by exact calcula-
·tion (see Table I and discussion), and included five direct hits
and four second ranks (Table III).
...

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TARGET-TENNIS COURTS
Windows
P
Fig. 6. Subject Elgin (S2) drawings in response to tennis court target.
subject. It was a demonstration experiment for a government
visitor who had heard of our work and wanted to evaluate our
experimental protocol.
In the laboratory, the subject, holding a bearing compass at
arm's length, began the experiment by indicating the direction
of the target demarcation team. correctly to within 5°. (In all
four experiments with this subject, he has always been within
10° of the correct direction in this angular assessment.) The
subject then generated a 15-min tape-recorded description and
the drawings shown in Fig. 6.
In discussing the drawings, Elgin indicated that he was
uncertain as to the action, but had the impression that the
demarcation team was located at a museum (known to him)
in a particular park. In fact, the target was a tennis court lo-
cated in that park about 90 m from the indicated museum.
Once again, we note the characteristic (discussed earlier) of a
resemblance between the target site and certain gestalt ele-
ments of the subject's response, especially in regard to the
drawings, coupled with incomplete or erroneous analysis of
the significances. Nonetheless, when rank ordering transcripts
1 through 8 at the site, the judge ranked this transcript as 2.
This example illustrates a continuing observation that most of
the correct information related to us by subjects is of a non-
analytic nature pertaining to shape, form, color, and material
rather than to function or name ..
A second example from this group, generated by S3 (Swann),
indicates the level of proficiency that can be attained with
practice. In the two years'since we first started working with
Swann, he has been studying the problem of separating the ex-
experiments, he dictates two lists for us to record. Oze list .
contains objects that he "sees," but does not think are located
at the remote scene. A second list contains otjects that he
thinks are at the scene. In our evaluation, he has made much
progress in this most essential ability to separate memory
and imagination from paranormal inputs. This is the key to
bringing the remote-viewing channel to friition with regard to
its potential usefulness.
The quality of transcript that can be generated by this pro-
`cess is evident from the results of our most recent experiment
with Swann. The target location chosen by the usual double-
blind protocol was the Palo Alto City Hall. Swann described 2
tall building with vertical columns and "set in" window .. His
sketch, together with the photograph of the site, is shown in
Fig. 7. He said there was a fountain, "but i don't hear it."
At the time the target team was at the City Hall during the
experiment, the fountain was not running. He also made an
effort to draw a replica of the designs in the pavement in front
of the building, and correctly indicated the number of trees
(four) in the sketch.
For the entire series of eight, four each from S2 and S3, the
numerical evaluation 'based on blind rank ordering of tran-
scripts at each site was significant at p = 3.8 X 10-4 and in-
cluded three direct hits and three second ranks for the target-
associated transcripts (see Table IV).
D. Subjects S5 and S6: Learners
To complete the series, four experiments each were carried
out with learner subjects S5 and S6, a man and woman on the
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Proture of the category onese
Savon
13 /20 29.
10 40 am.
ford of green.
tiles?
a corridor & come set .
awake when the tous
lawns.
an open fuld.
an enclosed diea favore won't .
a quad .
long beelding
abouten.
but I don't hand .
with that
cross walks.
basket ball west. fuld .
walks
?
Fig. 7. Subject Swaan (S3) response to City Hall target.
group, did not differ significantly from chance. For the series
of eight (judged as a group of seven since one target came up
twice, once for each subject), the numerical evaluation based
on blind rank ordering of transcripts at each site was non-
significant at p = 0.08, even though there were two direct hits
and two second ranks out of the seven (see Table V).
One of the direct hits, which occurred with subject S6 in her
first experiment, provides an example of the "first-time effect"
that has been rigorously explored and is well-known to experi-
menters in the field [57]. The outbound experimenter
obtained, by random protocol from the pool, a target blind
to the experimenter with the subject, as is our standard pro- .
"cedure, and proceeded to the location. The subject, a mathe-
matician in the computer science laboratory who had no pre-
TABLE IV
DISTRIBUTION OF RANKINGS ASSIGNED TO TRANSCRIPTS ASSOCIATED
WITH EACH TARGET LOCATION FOR EXPERIENCED SUBJECTS ELGIN (S2)
AND SWANN (S3)
Subject
Target Location
Distance
(km)
Rank of
Associated
Transcript
S2
BART Station (Transit System), Fremont
16.1
1
S2
Shielded room, SRI, Menlo Park
0.1
2
S2
Tennis court, Palo Alto
3.4
2
S2
Golf course bridge, Stanford
3.4
2
S3
City Hall, Palo Alto
2.0
1
$3
Miniature golf course, Menlo Park
3.0
1
53
Kiosk in park, Menlo Park
0.3
3
$3
Baylands Nature Preserve. Palo Alto
6.4
3
Total sum of ranks
15
(p=3.8x10"+)
TABLE V
DISTRIBUTION OF RANKINGS ASSIGNED TO TRANSCRIPTS ASSOCIATED
WITH EACH TARGET LOCATION FOR LEARNER SUBJECTS S5 AND S6
Subject
Target Location
Distance
(km)
Rank of
Associated
Transcript
'S5
Pedestrian overpass, Falo Alto
5.0
3
S5
Railroad; trestle bridge, Palo Alto
: . 3
6
S5
Windmill, Portola Valley
6.5
2
S5, S6
White Plaza, Stanford (2)
3.8
1
S6
Airport, Palo Alto
5.5
2
S6
Kiosk in Park, Menlo Park
0.3
5
S6
Boathouse, Stanford
5.0
1
Total sum of ranks
20
(p=0.08, NS)
lawn
well
vious experience in remote viewing, began to describe a large
square with a fountain. Four minutes into the experiment,
she recognized the location and correctly identified it by name
(see Fig. 8). (It should be noted that in the area from which
the target locations were drawn there are other fountains
as well, some of which were in the target pool.) As an ex-
ample of the style of the narratives generated during remote
viewing with inexperienced subjects and of the part played by
the experimenter remaining with the subject in such a case,
we have included the entire unedited text of this experiment
as Appendix B.
E. Normal and Paranormal: Use of Unselected Subjects in
Remote Viewing
After more than a year of following the experimental pro-
tocol described above and observing that even inexperienced
subjects generated results better than expected, we initiated a
series of experiments to explore further whether individuals
other than putative "psychics" can demonstrate the remote-
viewing ability. To test this idea, we have a continuing pro-
gram to carry out additional experiments of the outdoor type
with new subjects whom we have no a priori reason to believe
have paranormal perceptual ability. To date we have collected
data from five experiments with two individuals in this cate-
gory: a man and a woman who were visiting government
scientists interested in observing our experimental protocols.
The motivation for these particular experiments was twofold.
First, the experiments provide data that indicate the level of
proficiency that can be expected from unselected volunteers,
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į
1
1
i
L
of
somewhat curry
Clinches
Some landscaping
grass
small - medium trees
year flower
-
Fig. 8. Subject (S6) drawing of White Plaza, Stanford University. Sub-
ject drew what she called "curvy benches" and then announced cor-
rectly that the place was "White Plaza at Stanford."
Second, when an individual observes a successful demonstra-
tion experiment involving another person as subject, it inevi-
tably occurs to him that perhaps chicanery is involved. We
have found the most effective way to settle this issue for the
observer is to have the individual himself act as a subject so as
to obtain personal experience against which our reported
results can be evaluated."
The first visitor (V1) was invited to participate as a subject
in a three-experiment series. All three experiments contained
elements descriptive of the associated target locations; the
quality of response increased with practice. The third re-
sponse is shown in Fig. 9, where again the pattern elements in .
' the drawing appeared to be a closer match than the subject's
analytic interpretation of the target object as a cupola.
white
same sort of structure of
thing in top of aprendere
los in a general sense lite
Grounded done-type top
lightening rod
TO VIEW
medium danken thing
cod black x maury
(AA)
RESPONSES OF VISITING
SCIENTIST SUBJECT
Fig. 9. Subject (V1) drawing of merry-go-round target.
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TECHNOLOGY SERIES
TYPEWRITER TARGET
Sans to move into 2 parts
sitting on top of de atar-
a machine in 2 parts.
white on the side.
see the flor now- linge
1623
sitorales
leurs
dark wass
dak ?
0
-0
0.
12-
the late and Mixed
SUBJECT SWANN (S3) RESPONSE
SUBJECT HAMMID (S4) RESPONSE
Fig. 10. Drawings of a typewriter target by two subjects.
The second visitor [V2] participated as a subject in two ex-
periments. In his first experiment, he generated' one of the
higher signal-to-noise results we have observed. He began
his narrative, "There is a red A-frame building and next to it
is a large yellow thing [a tree-Editor]. Now further left
there is another A-shape. It looks like a swing-set, but it is
pushed down in a gully so I can't see the swings." [All cor-
rect.] He then went on to describe a lock on the front door
that he said "looks like it's made of laminated steel, so it
must be a Master lock." [ Also correct.]
For the series of five-three from the first subject and two
from the second-the numerical evaluation based on blind
rank ordering of the transcripts at each site was significant at.
.p = 0.017 and included three direct hits and one second rank
for the target-associated transcripts. (See Table,VI.)
TABLE VI
DISTRIBUTION OF RANKINGS ASSIGNED TO TRANSCRIPTS ASSOCIATED WITH
EACH TARGET LOCATION FOR. VISITOR SUBJECTS VI AND V2
Subject
Target Location
Distance
(i=)
Bank of
Associated
Trinscrip:
v1
Bridge over stream, Menlo Park
1.3
-
VI
Baylands Nature Preserve, Palo Alto
€.4
2
v1
Herry-go-round, Palo Alto
2.4
1
v2
Windmill, Portola Valley
1.5
1
v2
Apartment swimming pool, Mountain View.
1.1
3
Total sum of ranks
6
(7-0.017)
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01
TARGET LOCATION: XEROX MACHINE
(TECHNOLOGY SERIES)
TO ADD INTEREST TO TARGET
LOCATION EXPERIMENTER WITH
HIS HEAD BEING XEROXED
rolling along
table
-
5:2
Fig. 11. Drawings by three subjects (S2, S3, and V3) for Xerox machine target. Wher. asked to descrite the stare at upper left of response on
the right, subject (V3) said, "There was this predominant light source which might have been a window. and a working surface which might have
been the sill, or a working surface or desk." Earlier the subject had said, "I have the feeling that there is something silhouettes against the
window."
Observations with unselected subjects such as those de-
scribed above indicate that remote viewing may be a latent and
widely distributed perceptual ability.
F. Technology Series: Short-Range Remote Viewing
Because remote viewing is a perceptual ability, we consid-
ered it important to obtain data on its resolution capabilities.
To accomplish this, we turned to the use of indoor techno-
logical targets.
Twelve experiments were carried out with five different sub-
jects, two of whom were visiting government scientists. They
were told that one of the experimenters would be sent by
random protocol to a laboratory within the SRI complex and
that he would interact with the equipment or apparatus at
that location. It was further explained that the experimenter
remaining with the subject was, as usual, kept ignorant of the
contents of the target pool to prevent cueing during question-
ing. (Unknown to subjects, targets in the pool were used with
replacement; one of the goals of this particular experiment was
to obtain multiple responses to a given target to investigate
whether correlation of a number of subject responses would
provide enhancement of the signal-to-noise ratio.) The sub-
ject was asked to describe the target both verbally (tape
recorded) and by means of drawings during a time-synchronized
15-min interval in which the outbound experimenter inter-
acted in an appropriate manner with the equipment in the
target area.
Comparisons of the targets and subject drawings for three of
the multiple-response cases (the typewriter, Xerox machine,
and video terminal) are shown in Figs. 10, 11, and 12. As is
apparent from these illustrations alone, the experiments
provide circumstantial evidence for an information channel
of useful bit rate. This includes experiments in which visit-
ing government scientists participated as subjects (Xerox
machine and video terminal) to observe the protocol. In
general, it appears that use of multiple-subject responses to a
single target provides better sigral-to-noise ratio than target
identification by a single individual. This conclusion is borne
out by the judging described below.
Given that in general the drawings constitute the most
accurate portion of a subject's description, in the first judging
procedure a judge was asked simply to blind match only the
drawings (i.e., without tape transcripts) to the targets. Multiple-
subject responses to a given target were stapled together, and
thus seven subject-drawing response packets were to be
matched to the seven different targets for which drawings were
made. The judge did not have access to our photographs of
the target locations, used for illustration purposes only, but
rather proceeded to each of the target locations by list. While
standing at each target location, the judge was required to rank
order the seven subject-drawing response packets (presented in
random order) on a scale 1 to 7 (best to worst match). For
seven targets, the sum of ranks could range from 7 to 49. The
sum in this case, which included I direct hit and 4 second
ranks out of the 7 (see Table VII) was 18, a result significant
at p = 0.036.
-
In the twelve experiments, seven targets were used: a drill
press, Xerox machine, video terminal, chart recorder, four-
state random number generator, machine shop, and type-
. In the second more detailed effort at evaluation, a visiting
writer. Three of these were used twice (drill press, video, . scientist selected at random one of the 12 data packages (a
terminal, and typewriter) and one (Xerox machine) came up
drill press experiment), sight unseen and submitted it for in-
dependent analysis to an engineer with a request for an esti-
three times in our random selection procedure.
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TARGET: VIDEO MONITOR FOR TEXT EDITING (TECHNOLOGY SERIES)
Side "all mat Black
1.
5
. TI S!+ ??
(a)
(b)
Fig. 12. Drawing by two subjects of a video monitor target. (a) Subject (S4) drawing of "box with light coming out of it . . . painted flat black
and in the middle of the room." (b) Second subject (V2) saw a computer termind with relay racks in the background.
TABLE VII
DISTRIBUTION OF RANKINGS ASSIGNED TO SUBJECT
DRAWINGS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH TARGET LOCATION
Subject
Target
Rank of
Associated
Drawings
$3, 54
Drill press
2
$2, 53, V3
Xerox machine
2
54, V2
Video terminal
1
S3
Chart recorder
2
S4
Random number generator
6
$4
Machine shop
3
$3, 54
Typewriter
2
Total sum of ranks
18
(p=0.036)
TABLE VIII
SUMMARY: REMOTE VIEWING
Sub- ==
Number of
Experiments
p-Value, Rack
Order Judgiez
With natural taste:s
SI (experience ::
9
2.9 x 10-5
$2 and S3 (experienced)
8
3.8 x 10"4
54 (learner)
9
1.8 X 10-6
$5 and S6 (le mmers)
8
0.08 (NS)
v1 and V2 (letters/visitors)
5
0,017
With technology targets
$2, S3, S4, V:, ¥3
12
0.036
tabulation of the statistical evaluations of these fifty-one ex-
periments with nine subjects is presented in Table VIII. The
overall result, evaluated conservatively on the basis of a
judging procedure that ignores transcript quality beyond that
necessary to rank order the data packets (vastly underestimat-
ing the statistical significance of individual descriptions),
clearly indicates the presence of an information channel of
useful bit rate. Furthermore, it appears that the principal
difference between experienced subjects and inexperienced
volunteers is not that the latter never exhibit the faculty, but
rather that their results are simply less reliable, more sporadic.
Nevertheless, as described earlier, individual transcripts from
the inexperienced group of subjects number among some of
that remote viewing may be a latent and widely distributed
perceptual ability.
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mate as to what was being described. The analyst, blind as to
the target and given only the subject's taped narrative and
drawing (Fig. 13), was able, from the subject's description
alone, to correctly classify the target as a "man-sized vertical
boring machine."
G. Summary of Remote Viewing Results
1) Discussion: The descriptions supplied by the subjects
in the experiments involving remote viewing of natural targets
or laboratory apparatus, although containing inaccuracies, , the best obtained. Such observations indicate a hypothesis
were sufficiently accurate to permit the judges to differentiate
among various targets to the degree indicated. A summary
[0]
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345
ight carwas
DITORI
Wh .T
Blyk
Fig. 13. Subject (S4) drawing of drill press showing belt drive, stool,
and a "vertical graph that goes up and down."
Thus the primary achievement of the SRI program was the
elicitation of high-quality remote viewing from individuals
who agreed to act as subjects. Criticism of this claim could
in principle be put forward on the basis of three potential
flaws .. 1) The study could involve naivete in protocol that
permits various forms of cueing, intentional or unintentional.
2) The experiments discussed could be selected out of a larger
pool of experiments of which many are of poorer quality.
3) Data for the reported experiments could be edited to show
only the matching elements, the nonmatching elements being
discarded.
All three criticisms, however, are invalid. First, with regard
to cueing, the use of double-blind protocols ensures that none
of the persons in contact with the subject can be aware of the
target. Second, selection of experiments for reporting did not
take place; every experiment was entered as performed on a
master log and is included in the statistical evaluations. Third,
data associated with a given experiment remain unedited; all
·experiments are tape recorded and all data are included un-
: edited in the data package to be judged and evaluated.
In the process of judging-attempting to match transcripts
against targets on the basis of the information in the
transcripts-some patterns and regularities in the transcript
descriptions became evident, particularly regarding individual
styles in remote viewing and in the perceptual form of the
descriptions given by the subjects. These patterns and the
judging procedure are discussed below.
a) Styles of response: The fifty-one transcripts were
taken from nine different subjects.
Comparing the tran-
scripts of one subject with those of another revealed that each
pattern tended to focus on certain aspects of the remote
target complex and to exclude others, so that each haj an
individual pattern of response, like a signature.
Subject S3, for example, frequently responded with :opo-
graphical descriptions, maps, and architectural features of the
target locations. Subject S2 often focused on the behavior of
the remote experimenter or the sequence of actions he carried
out at the target. The transcripts of subject S4. more than
those of other subjects, had descriptions of the feel of the lo-
cation, and experiential or sensory gestalts-for example,
light/dark elements in the scene and indoor/outdoor and
enclosed/open distinctions. Prominent features of S 1's tran-
scripts were detailed descriptions of what the target persons
were concretely experiencing, seeing, or doing-for example,
standing on asphalty blacktop overlooking water: looking at
a purple iris.
The range of any individual subject's responses was wide.
Anyone might draw a map or describe the mood of the remote
experimenter, but the consistency of each subject's overall
approach suggests that just as individual descriptions of a
directly viewed scene would differ, so these differences also
occur in remote-viewing processes.
. b) Nature of the description: The concrete descriptions
that appear most commonly in transcripts are at the level of
subunits of the overall scene. For example, when the target
was a Xerox copy machine, the responses included (S2) a
rolling object (the moving light) or dials and a cover that is
lifted (S3), but the machine as a whole was not identified by
name or function.
In a few transcripts, the subjects correctly identified and
named the target. In the case of a computer terminal, the
subject (V2) apparently perceived the terminal and the :elay
racks behind it. In the case of targets which were Hcover
Tower and White Plaza, the subjects (S1 and S6, respectively)
seemed to identify the locations through analysis of their
initial images of the elements of the target.
There were also occasional incorrect identifications. Gestalts
were incorrectly named; for example, swimming pools in a
park were identified as water storage tanks at a water filtration
plant (S1).
The most common perceptual level was thus an intermediate
one-the individual elements and items that make up the tar -.
get. This is suggestive of a scanning process that takes sample
perceptions from within the overall environment.
When the subjects tried to make sense out of these fragmen-
tary impressions, they often resorted to metaphors or con-
structed an image with a kind of perceptual inference. From
a feeling of the target as an "august" and "solemn" building,
a subject (S4) said it might be a library; it was a church. A
pedestrian overpass above a freeway was described as a conduit
($4). A rapid transit station, elevated above the countryside,
was associated with an observatory (S2). These responses
seem to be the result of attempts to process partial informa-
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tion: similarly, this occurs in other parapsychological experi-
ments. These observations are compatible with the hypotheses
that information received in a putative remote-viewing mode
's processed piecemeal in pattern form (consistent with a low
bit rate process, but not necessarily requiring it); and the
errors arise in the processes of attempted integration of the
data into larger patterns directed toward verbal labeling.
When the subjects augmented the verbal transcripts with
drawings or sketches, these often expressed the target elements
more accurately than the verbal descriptions. Thus the draw-
ings tended to correspond to the targets more clearly and
precisely than the words of the transcript.
The descriptions given by the subjects sometimes wen: be-
rond what the remote experimenter experienced, at least con-
sciously. For example, one subject (S4) described and crew
: belt drive at the top of a drill press that was invisible even to
the remote experimenter who was operating the machine;
another subject .(S1) described a number of items behind
shrubbery and thus not visible to members of the demarcation
team at the site.
Curiously, objects in motion at the remote site were rarely
mentioned in the transcript. For example, trains crossing the
railroad trestle target were not described, though the remote
experimenter stood very close to them.
Also in a few cases, the subject descriptions were inaccurate
regarding size of structures. A 20-ft courtyard separating :wo
Buildings was described as 200 ft wide, and a small shed was
expanded to a barn-like structure.
c) Blind judging of transcripts: The judging procedure
entailed examining the transcripts for a given experimental
series and attempting to match the transcripts with the cor-
rect targets on the basis of their correspondences. The tan-
scripts varied from coherent and accurate descriptions to mix-
tires of correspondences and noncorrespondences. Since the
judge did not know a priori which elements of the descriptions
were correct or incorrect, the task was complicated, and tran-
scripts often seemed plausibly to match more than one target.
A confounding factor in these studies is that some targe: lo-
cations have similarities that seem alike at some level of per-
ception. For example, a radio telescope at the top of a hill,
the observation deck of a tower, and a jetty on the edge of a
tay all match a transcript description of "looking out over a
long distance." A lake, a fountain, and a creek may all result
in an image of water for the subject. Therefore, in several
cases, even correct images may not help in the conservative
differential matching procedure used.
According to the judge, the most successful procedure was a
careful element-by-element comparison that tested each tran-
script against every target and used the transcript descriptions
and drawings as arguments for or against assigning the tran-
script to a particular target. In most cases, this resulted in
either a clear conclusion or at least a ranking of probable
matches; these matches were subjected to the statistical
analyses presented in this paper.
2) Summary: In summary, we do not yet have an under-
standing of the nature of the information-bearing signal that a
subject perceives during remote viewing. The subjects com-
monly report that they perceive the signal visually as though
they were looking at the object or place from a position in its
immediate neighborhood. Furthermore, the subjects' per-
ceptual viewpoint has mobility in that they can shift their
point of view so as to describe elements of a scene that would . data.
not be visible to an observer merely standing at ground level
and describing what he sees. (In particular, a subject often
correctly describes elements not visible to the target demarca-
tion team.) Finally, motion is seldom reported; in fact,
moving objects often are unseen ever when nearby static
objects are correctly identified.
A comparison of the results of remote viewing (a so-called
free-response task) with results of forceć-choice tasks, such as
the selection of one of four choices generated by a random
number generator [58], reveals the following findings. From a
statistical viewpoint, a subject is more likely to describe, with
sufficient accuracy to permit blind matching, a remote site
chosen at random than he is to select correctly one c: four
random numbers. Our experience with these phenomena leads
us to consider that this difference in tisk performance may
stem from fundamental signal-to-noise considerations. Two
principal source's of noise in the system apparently are mem-
ory and imagination, both of which ca: give rise to mental
pictures of greater clarity than the targe: to be perceived. In
the random number task, a subject can create a perfect mental
picture of each of the four possible outputs in his own imagi-
nation and then attempt to obtain the correct answer by a
mental matching operation. The same is true for card guessing
experiments. On the other hand, the subject in remote view-
ing is apparently more likely to approach the task with a.
blank mind as he attempts to perceive pictorial information
from remote locations about which he may have no stored
mental data.
Finally, we observe that most of the correct info :... ation
that subjects relate to us is of a nonanalytic nature pertaining
to shape, form, color, and material rather than to function or
name. In consultation with Dr. Robert Ornstein of the Langley-
Porter Neuropsychiatric Institute, San Francisco, CA, and with
Dr. Ralph Kiernan of the Department of Neurology, Stanford
University Medical Center, Stanford, CA, we have formed
the tentative hypothesis that paranormal functioning may
involve specialization characteristic of the brain's right hemi-
sphere. This possibility is derived from a variety of evidence
from clinical and neurosurgical sources which indicate that the
two hemispheres of the human brain are specialized for dif-
ferent cognitive functions. The left hemisphere is predomi-
nantly active in verbal and other analytica functioning and the
right hemisphere predominates in spatial and other holistic
processing [59]; [60]. Further research is necessary to
elucidate the relationship between right hemisphere function
and paranormal abilities. Nonetheless, we can say at this
point that the remote-viewing results of the group of subjects
at SRI have characteristics in common with more familiar
performances that require right hemispheric function. The
similarities include the highly schematicized drawings of ob-
jects in a room or of remote scenes. Verbal identification of
these drawings is often highly inaccurate and the drawings
themselves are frequently left-right reversed relative to the
target configuration. Further, written material generally is
not cognized. These characteristics have been seen in left
brain-injured patients and in callosal-sectioned patients.
As a result of the above considerations, we have leamed to
urge our subjects simply to describe what they see as opposed
to what they think they are looking at. We have learned that
their unanalyzed perceptions are almost always a better guide
to the true target than their interpretations of the perceived
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IV. CONSIDERATIONS CONCERNING TIME
If the authors may be forgiven a personal note, we wish to
express that this section deals with observations that we have
been reluctant to publish because of their striking apparent in-
compatibility with existing concepts. The motivating factor
for presenting the data at this time is the ethical consideration
that theorists endeavoring to develop models for paranormal
functioning should be apprised of all the observable data if
their efforts to arrive at a comprehensive and correct descrip-
tion are to be successful.
During the course of the experimentation in remote viewing
(Section III), subjects occasionally volunteered the informa-
tion that they had been thinking about their forthcoming par-
ticipation in a remote-viewing experiment and had an image
come to them as to what the target location was to be. On
these occasions, the information was given only to the experi-
menter remaining at SRI with the subject and was unknown to,-
the outbound experimenter until completion of the experi-
ment. Two of these contributions were among the most
accurate descriptions turned in during those experiments.
Since the target location had not yet been selected when the
subject communicated his perceptions about the target, we
found the data difficult to contend with.
We offer these spontaneous occurrences not as proof of pre-
cognitive perception, but rather as the motivation that led us
to do further work in this field. On the basis of this firsthand
evidence, together with the copious literature describing years
of precognition experiments carried out in various other labo-
ratories, we decided to determine whether a subject could per-
form a perceptual task that required both spatial and temporal
remote viewing.
It is well known and recently has been widely discussed that
nothing in the fundamental laws of physics forbids the appar-
ent transmission of information from the future to the present
(discussed further in Section V). Furthermore, there is a gen-
eral dictum that "in physical law, everything that is not forbid-
den, is required" [61]. With this in mind, we set out to con-
duct very well-controlled experiments to determine whether
we could deliberately design and execute experiments for the
sole purpose of observing precognition under laboratory
conditions.
The experimental protocol was identical to that followed in
previous remote-viewing experiments with but one exception.
The exception was that the subject was required to describe
the remote location during a 15-min period beginning 20 min
before the target was selected and 35 min before the outbound
experimenter was to arrive at the target location.
TABLE IX
EXPERIMENTAL PROTOCOL: PRECOGNITIVE REMOTE VIEWING
Time
Schedule
Experimenter/Subject Activity
G0:00
Outbound experimenter leaves with 10 envelopes (contilning
target locations) and random number generator;
begins half-hour drive
00: 10
Experimenters remaining with subject in the laboratory
elicit from subject a description of where outbound
experimenter will be from 10:45-11:00
DO:25
Subject response completed, at which time laboratory part
of experiment is over
LD: 30
Outbound experimenter obtains random number from i random
number generator, counts down to associated envelope. and
proceeds to target location indicated
ID: 45
Outbound experimenter remains at target location for
15 minutes (10:45-11:00)
Fig. 14. Subject Hammid ($4) described "some kind of congealing tar,
or maybe an area of condensed lava . . . that has oozed out to fill up
some kind of boundaries."
ated a random digit from 0 to 9 with a Texas Instruments
SR-51 random number generator; while. still in motion, he
counted down that number of envelopes and proceeded di-
rectly to the target location so as to arrive there by 10:45. He
remained at the target site until 11:00, at which time he re-
turned to the laboratory, showed his chosen target name to a
security guard, and entered the experimental room.
During the same period, the protocol in the laboratory was
as follows. At 10:10, the subject was asked to begin a descrip-
tion of the place to which the experimenter would go 35 min
hence. The subject then generated a tape-recorded description
and associated drawings from 10:10 to 10:25, at which time
her part in the experiment was ended. Her description was
thus entirely concluded 5 min before the beginning of the tar-
get selection procedure.
In detail, as shown in Table IX, each day at ten o'clock one
of the experimenters would leave SRI with a stack of ten
Four such experiments were carried out. Each of them ap-
peared to be successful, an evaluation later verified in blind
judging without error by three judges. We will briefly sum-
marize the four experiments below.
sealed envelopes from a larger pool and randomized daily, con-
taining traveling instructions that had been prepared, but that
were unknown to the two experimenters remaining with the
subject. The subject for this experiment was Hella Hammid
The first target, the Palo Alto Yacht Harbor, consisted en-
tirely of mud flats because of an extremely low tide (see Fig.
14). Appropriately, the entire transcript of the subject per-
tained to "some kind of congealing tar, or maybe an area of
condensed lava. It looks like the whole area is covered with
some kind of wrinkled elephant skin that has oozed out to fill
up some kind of boundaries where (the outbound experi-
menter) is standing." Because of the lack of water, the dock
ing directly on the mud.
(S4) who participated in the nine-experiment series replicating
the original Price work described earlier. The traveling experi-
menter was to drive continuously from 10:00 until 10:30 be-
fore selecting his destination with a random number generator.
(The motivation for continuous motion was our observation
that objects and persons in rapid motion are not generally seen
in the remote-viewing mode of perception, and we wished the
traveler to be a poor target until he reached his target site.) At , where the remote experimenter was standing was in fact rest-
"the end of 30 min of driving, the traveling experimenter gener-
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... .
Fig. 15. Subject (S4) described a formal garden "very well manicured"
behind a double colonnade.
Note that the subject has learned not to rush into interpreta-
tion as to the nature or purpose of the place. This is a result
of our cautioning based on the observation that such efforts
tend to be purely analytical and in our experience are almost
invariably incorrect. If a subject can limit himself to what he
sees, he is often then able to describe a scene with sufficient
accuracy that an observer can perform the analysis for him and
identify the place.
The second target visited was the fountain at one end of a
large formal garden at Stanford University Hospital (Fig. 15).
The subject gave a lengthy description of a formal garden be-
hind a wall with a "double colonnade" and "very well mani-
cured." When we later took the subject to the location, she
was herself taken aback to find the double colonnaded wall
leading into the garden just as described.
Fig. 16. Subject (S4) saw a "black iron triangle that Hal had somehow
.walked into" and heard a "squeak, squeak, about once i second."
Fig .. 17. Subject (S4) described a very tall structure located among city
streets and covered with "Tiffany-like glass."
The final target was the Palo Alto City Hall (Fig. 17). The
subject described a very, very tall structure covered with
"Tiffany-like glass." She had it located among city streets and
with little cubes at the base. The building is glass-covered, and
the little cubes are a good match to the small elevator exit
buildings located in the plaza in front of the building.
To obtain a numerical evaluation of the accuracy of the pre-
cognitive viewing, the experimental results were subjected to
independent judging on a blind basis by three SRI scientists
who were not otherwise associated with the experiment. The
judges were asked to match the four locations, which they
visited, against the unedited typed manuscripts of the tape-
recorded narratives, along with the drawings generated by the
remote viewer. The transcripts were presented unlabeled and
in random order and were to be used without replacement. A
correct match required that the transcript of a given experi-
ment be matched with the target of that experiment. All three
judges independently matched the target data to the response
data without error. Under the null hypothesis (no information
channel and a random selection of descriptions without re-
placement), each judge independently obtained a result signifi-
cant at p = (4!)-1 = 0.042.
The third target was a children's swing at a small park 4.6 km
from the laboratory (Fig. 16). The subject repeated again and
again that the main focus of attention at the site was a "black
iron triangle that the outbound experimenter had somehow
walked into or was standing on." The triangle was "bigger
For reasons we do not as yet understand, the four transcripts
generated in the precognition experiment show exceptional co-
judges were able to match successfully all of the transcripts to
than a man," and she heard a "squeak, squeak, about once a
second," which we observe is a match to the black metal swing . herence and accuracy as evidenced by the fact that all of the
that did squeak.
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the corresponding target locations. A long-range experimental
program devoted to the clarification of these issues and involv-
ing a number of subjects is under way. The above four experi-
ments are the first four carried out under this program:
Currently, we have no precise model of this spatial and tem-
poral remote-viewing phenomenon. However, models of the
universe involving higher order synchronicity or correlation
have been proposed by the physicist Pauli and the psychologist
Carl Jung [62].
ACAUSALITY. If natural law5 were an absolute truth, then of
course there could not possibly be any processes that deviate
from it. But since causality5 is a statistical truth, it holds good
only on average and thus leaves room for exceptions which must
somehow be experienceable, that is to say, real. I try to regard
synchronistic events as acausal exceptions of this kind. They
prove to be relatively independent of space and time; they rela-
tivize space and time insofar as space presents in principle no ob-
stacle to their passage and the sequence of events in time is in-
verted so that it looks as if an event which has not yet occurred ."
were causing a perception in the present.
.
We shall see in the next section that such a description,
though poetic, has some basis in modern physical theory.
V. DISCUSSION
It is important to note at the outset that many contempo-
rary physicists are of the view that the phenomena that we
have been discussing are not at all inconsistent with the
framework of physics as currently understood. In this emerg-
ing view, the often-held belief that observations of this type
are incompatible with known laws in principle is erroneous,
such a concept being based on the naive realism prevalent
before the development of modern quantum theory and
information theory.
One hypothesis, put forward by I. M. Kogan of the USSR,
is that information transfer under conditions of sensory
shielding is mediated by extremely low-frequency (ELF)
electromagnetic waves in the 300-1000-km region [37] -
[40]. Experimental support for the hypothesis is claimed
on the basis of slower than inverse square attenuation, com-
patible with source-percipient distances lying in the induc-
tion field range as opposed to the radiation field range; ob-
served low bit rates (0.005-0.1 bit/s) compatible with the
information carrying capacity of ELF waves; apparent ineffec-
tiveness of ordinary electromagnetic shielding as an attenuator;
and standard antenna calculations entailing biologically gener-
ated currents yielding results compatible with observed signal-
to-noise ratios.
M. Persinger, Psychophysiology Laboratory, Laurentian Uni-
versity, Toronto, Canada, has narrowed the ELF hypothesis to
the suggestion that the 7.8-Hz "Shumann waves" and their
harmonics propagating along the earth-ionosphere waveguide
duct may be responsible. Such an hypothesis is compatible
with driving by brain-wave currents and leads to certain other
hypotheses such as asymmetry between east-west and west-
east propagation, preferred experimental times (midnight-4
A.M.), and expected negative correlation between success
and the U index .(a measure of geomagnetic disturbance
throughout the world). Persinger claims initial support for
these factors on the basis of a literature search [63], [64]. .
On the negative side with regard to a straightforward ELF
interpretation as a blanket hypothesis are the following: a) ap-
parent real-time descriptions of remote activities in sufficient
detail to require a channel capacity in all probability greater
than that allowed by a conventional modulation of an ELF
signal; b) lack of a proposed mechanism for coding and decod-
ing the information onto the proposed ELF carrier; and c) ap-
parent precognition data. The hypothesis must nonetheless re-
main open at this stage of research, since it is conceivable that
counterindication a) may eventually be circumvented on the
basis that the apparent high bit rate results from a mixture of
low bit rate input and high bit rate "filling in the blanks" from
imagination; counterindication b) is common to a number of
normal perceptual tasks and may therefore simply reflect a
lack of sophistication on our part with regard to perceptual
functioning [65]; and counterindication c) may be accom-
modated by an ELF hypothesis if advanced waves as well as
retarded waves are admitted [66], [67]. Experimentation to
determine whether the ELF hypothesis is viable can be carried
out by the use of ELF sources as targets, by the study of para-
metric dependence on propagational directions and diurnal
timing, and by the exploration of interference effects caused
by creation of a high-intensity ELF environment during ex-
perimentation, all of which are under consideration in our lab-
oratory and elsewhere.
Some physicists believe that the reconciliation of observed
paranormal functioning with modern theory may take place at
a more fundamental level-namely, at the level of the founda-
tions of quantum theory. There is a continuing dialog, for
example, on the proper interpretation of the effect of an ob-
server (consciousness) on experimental measurement [68],
and there is considerable current interest in the implications
for our notions of ordering in time and space brought on by
the observation [69], [70] of nonlocal correlation or "quan-
tum interconnectedness" (to use Bohm's term [71]) of distant
parts of quantum systems of macroscopic dimensions. The
latter, Bell's theorem [72], emphasizes that "no theory of
reality compatible with quantum theory can require spatially
separated events to be independent" [73], but must permit
interconnectedness of distant events in a manner that is con-
trary to ordinary experience [74]-[75]. This prediction has
been experimentally tested and confirmed in the recent
experiments of, for example, Freedman and Clauser [69],
[70].
E. H. Walker and O. Costa de Beauregard, independently
proposing theories of paranormal functioning based on quan-
tum concepts, argue that observer effects open the door to the
possibility of nontrivial coupling between consciousness and
the environment and that the nonlocality principle permits
such coupling to transcend spatial and temporal barriers [76],
[77].
Apparent "time reversibility"-that is, effects (e.g., observa-
tions) apparently preceding causes (e.g., events)-though con-
ceptually difficult at first glance, may be the easiest of appar-
ent paranormal phenomena to assimilate within the current
theoretical structure of our world view. In addition to the
familiar retarded potential solutions f(t - r/c), it is well known
that the equations of, for example, the electromagnetic field
admit of advanced potential solutions f (t + r/c)-solutions that
would appear to imply a reversal of cause and effect. Such
solutions are conventionally discarded as not corresponding to
any observable physical event. One is cautioned, however, by
, statements such as that of Stratton in his basic text on electro-
magnetic theory [78].
' As usually understood.
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The reader has doubtless noted that the choice of the function
f(t - r/c) is highly arbitrary, since the field equation admits also
a solution f(t + r/c). This function leads obviously to an advanced
time, implying that the field can be observed before it has been
generated by the source. The familiar chain of cause and effect
is thus reversed and this alternative solution might be discarded
as logically inconceivable. However, the application of "logical"
causality principles offers very insecure footing in matters such
as these and we shall do better to restrict the theory to retarded
action solely on the grounds that this solution alone conforms to
the present physical data.
Such caution is justified by the example in the early 1920's of
Dirac's development of the mathematical description of the
relativistic electron that also yielded a pair of solutions, one of
which was discarded as inapplicable until the discovery of the
positron in 1932.
In an analysis by O. Costa de Beauregard, an argument is put
forward that advanced potentials constitute a convergence
toward "finality" in a manner symmetrical to the divergence
of retarded potentials as a result of causality [77]. Such
phenomena are generally unobservable, however, on the gross
macroscopic scale for statistical reasons. This is codified in
the thermodynamic concept that for an isolated system entropy
(disorder) on the average increases. It is just this requirement
of isolation, however, that has been weakened by the observer
problem in quantum theory, and O. Costa de Beauregard argues
that the finality principle is maximally operative in just those
situations where the intrusion of consciousness as an ordering
phenomenon results in a significant local reversal of entropy
increase. At this point, further discussion of the subtleties of
such considerations, though apropos, would take us far afield,
so we simply note that such advanced waves, if detected, could
in certain cases constitute a carrier of information precognitive
to the event.
The above arguments are not intended to indicate that the
precise nature of the information channel coupling remote
.events and human perception is understood. Rather, we in-
tend to show only that modern theory is not without resources
that can be brought to bear on the problems at hand, and we
expect that these problems will, with further work, continue
to yield to analysis and specification.
Furthermore, independent of the mechanisms that may be
involved in remote sensing, observation of the phenomenon
implies the existence of an information channel in the
information-theoretic sense. Since such channels are amenable
to analysis on the basis of communication theory techniques,
as indicated earlier, channel characteristics such as bit rate can
be determined independent of a well-defined physical channel
model in the sense that thermodynamic concepts can be ap-
plied to the analysis of systems independent of underlying
mechanisms. Furthermore, as we have seen from the work of
Ryzi discussed in Section II, it is possible to use such a channel
for error-free transmission of information if redundancy coding
is used. (See also Appendix A.) Therefore, experimentation
involving the collection of data under specified conditions per-
mits headway to be made despite the formidable work that
needs to be done to clarify the underlying bases of the
phenomena.
VI. CONCLUSION
For the past three years we have had a program in the Elec-
tronics and Bioengineering Laboratory of SRI to investigate.
. those facets of human perception that appear to fall outside
the range of well-understood perceptual or processing capa-
bilities. The primary achievement of this program has been
the elicitation of high-quality "remote viewing"-the ability
of both experienced subjects and inexperienced volunteers
to view, by means of innate mental processes, remote geo-
graphical or technical targets such as roads, buildings; and
laboratory apparatus. Our accumulated data from over fifty
experiments with more than a half-dozen subjects indicate
the following. : ) The phenomenon is not a sensitive function
of distance over a range of several kilometers. b) Faraday cage
shielding does not appear to degrade the quality or accuracy of
perception. c) Most of the correct information that subjects
relate is of a monanalytic nature pertaining to shape, form,
color, and material rather than to function or name. (This
aspect suggests a hypothesis that information transmission
under conditions of sensory shielding may be mediated pri-
marily by the train's right hemisphere.) d} The principal
difference between experienced subjects and inexperienced
volunteers is no: that the latter never exhibit the faculty, but
rather that their results are simply less reliable. (This observa-
tion suggests the hypothesis that remote viewing may be a
latent and widely distributed, though repressed, perceptual
ability.)
Although the precise nature of the information channel cou-
pling remote events and human perception is not yet under-
stood, certain concepts in information theory, quantum
theory, and neu: physiological research appea: to bear directly
on the issue. As a result, the working assumption among re-
searchers in the field is that the phenomenon of interest is
consistent with modern scientific thought, and can therefore
be expected to yield to the scientific method. Further, it is
recognized thai communication theory provides powerful
techniques, such as the use of redundancy coding to improve
signal-to-noise ratio, which can be employed to pursue special-
purpose application of the remote-sensing channel independent
of an understanding of the underlying mechanisms. We there-
fore consider it important to continue data collection and to
encourage other to do likewise; investigations such as those
reported here need replication and extension under as wide a
variety of rigorously controlled conditions as possible.
APPENDIX A
SIGNAL ENHANCEMENT IN A PARANORMAL
COMMUNICATION CHANNEL BY APPLICATION
OF REDUNDANCY CODING
Independent of the mechanisms that may be involved in
remote sensing, observation of the phenomenon implies the
existence of an information channel in the information-
theoretic sense. As we have seen from the work of Ryzl dis-
cussed in Section II,6 it is even possible to use such a (noisy)
channel for error-free transmission of information if suf-
ficient redundancy coding is used [30], [31]. Following is a
general procedure that we have used successfully for signal
enhancement.
We shall assume that the "message" consists of a stream of
binary digits (0,1) of equal probability (e.g., binary sort of
green/white cards as in Ryzl's case, English text encoded as in
Table X and sent long distance by strobe light on/off, and so
on). To combat channel noise, each binary digit to be sent
through the channel requires the addition of redundancy bits
(coding). Efficient coding requires a compromise between the
desire to maximize reliability and the desire to minimize re-
'See also the note added in proof on the successful work done by
Carpenter.
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TABLE X
5-BIT CODE FOR ALPHANUMERIC
CHARACTERS
00000
Y
01000
11111
GJ
10111
00001
W
01001
11110
V
10110
00010
B
01010
0
11101
0
10101
1
00011
1
01011
s, X, 2
11100
2
10100
2
00100
3
01100
.
00101
5
01101
c, K, Q
11010
6
10010
F
00110
7
01110
11001
8
10001
00111
9
01111
4
11000
.
10000
Note: Alphabet characters listed
in order of decreasing frequency
in English text. See, for example,
A. Sinkov [79]. (The low-fre-
quency letters, X, Z, K, Q, and J,
have been grouped with similar
characters to provide space for
numerics in a 5-bit code.) In
consideration of the uneven dis-
tribution of letter frequencies in
English text, this code is chosen
such that 0 and 1 have equal
probability.
dundancy. One efficient coding scheme for such a channel is
obtained by application of a sequential sampling procedure of
the type used in production-line quality control [80]. The
adaptation of such a procedure to paranormal communication
channels, which we now discuss, was considered first by
Taetzsch [8]]. The sequential method gives a rule of proce-
dure for making one of three possible decisions following the
receipt of each bit: accept 1 as the bit being transmitted; reject
1 as the bit being transmitted (i.e., accept 0); or continue
transmission of the bit under consideration. The sequential
sampling procedure differs from fixed-length coding in that
the number of bits required to reach a final decision on a
message bit is not fixed before transmission, but depends on
the results accumulated with each transmission. The principal
advantage of the sequential sampling procedure as compared
with the other methods is that, on the average, fewer bits per
final decision are required for an equivalent degree of
reliability.
Use of the sequential sampling procedure requires the speci-
fication of parameters that are determined on the basis of the
following considerations. Assume that a message bit (0 or 1)
is being transmitted. In the absence of a priori knowledge, we
may assume equal probability (p = 0.5) for the two possibili-
ties (0,1). Therefore, from the standpoint of the receiver, the
probability of correctly identifying the bit being transmitted is
p = 0.5 because of chance alone. An operative remote-sensing
channel could then be expected to alter the probability of
correct identification to a value p = 0.5 + v, where the param-
eter y satisfies 0<|V|<0.5. (The quantity may be positive
or negative depending on whether the paranormal channel
results in so-called psi-hitting or psi-missing.) Good psi func-
tioning on a repetitive task has been observed to result in v =
0.12, as reported by Ryzl [31]. Therefore, to indicate the
'design procedure, let us assume a baseline psi parameter
V = 0.1 and design a communication system on this basis.
CUMULATIVE NUMBER OF MATCHES AGAINST
50
"1" TARGET MESSAGE SEQUENCE
40
DECISION 1
Accept "1" as
30
the Bit Being
DECISION 3
Transmitted
Continue
20
Transmission
DECISION 2
Accept "0" as
10
the Bit Being
Transmitted
1
1
1
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
50
NUMBER OF TRIALS
Fig. 18. Enhancement of signal-to-noise ratio by sequential sampling
procedure (p) = 0.4, p, = 0.6, = = 0.01, 0 = 0.01).
The question to be addressed is whether, after repeated
transmission, a given message bit is labeled a "1" at a low :ate
Po commensurate with the hypothesis Ho that the bit in ques-
tion is a "0," or at a higher rate F1 commensurate with the
hypothesis H1 that the bit in question is indeed a "1." The
decision-making process requires the specification of four
parameters.
Po The probability of labeling incorrectly a "0" message bit
as a "1." The probability of labeling correctly a "C" as
a "O" is p = 0.5 + Vp = 0.6. Therefore, the probability
of labeling incorrectly a "O" as a "1" is 1 - p = 0.4 = Po.
P1
The probability of labeling correctly a "1" message bit
as a "1," is given by p1 = 0.5 + Vb = 0.6.
a
The probability of rejecting & correct identification for
a "0" (Type I error). We shall take & = 0.01.
The probability of accepting an incorrect identification
for a "1" (Type II error). We shall take B = 0.01.
With the parameters thus specified, the sequential sampling
procedure provides for construction of a decision graph as
shown in Fig. 18. The equations for the upper and lower limit
lines are
Z, = d1 + SN
Σ. = - do + SN
where
1 - 6
1 - x
log
a
log
di = -
log -
P1 1 - Po
Po 1 - P1
log 1
P1 1 - Po
Po 1 - P1
1 - Po
1 - P1
log
S =-
log =
Po 1 - P1
P1 1 - Po
in which S is the slope, N is the number of trials, and d; and
do are the y-axis intercepts. A cumulative record of receiver-
generated responses to the target bit is compiled until either
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RELIABILITY (probability of correctly
determining message being transmitted)
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
+0.4 +0.2 0 -0.2 -0.4
v (psi parameter)
Fig. 19. Reliability curve for sequential sampling procedure (po = 0.4,
P = 0.6, a = 0.01, 3 = 0.01).
the upper or the lower limit line is reached, at which point a
decision is made to accept 0 or 1 as the bit being transmitted.
Channel reliability (probability of correctly determining
message being transmitted) as a function of operative psi
parameter y is plotted in Fig. 19. As observed, the sequential
sampling procedure can result in 90 percent or greater reliability
with psi parameters on the order of a few percent.
Implementation of the sequential sampling procedure re-
quires the transmission of a message coded in binary digits.
Therefore, the target space must consist of dichotomous ele-
ments such as the white and green cards used in the experi-
ments by Ryzl.
In operation, a sequence corresponding to the target bit (0
or 1) is sent and the cumulative entries are made (Fig. 18) until
a decision is reached to accept either a 1 or a 0 as the bit being
transmitted.
At a prearranged time, the next sequence is
begun and continues as above until the entire message has been
received. A useful alternative, which relieves the percipient of
the burden of being aware of his self-contradiction from trial
to trial, consists of cycling through the entire message repeti-
tively and entering each response on its associated graph until
a decision has been reached on all message bits. The authors
have used this technique successfully in a pilot study, but a
discussion of this would take us beyond the intended scope of
this paper.
From the results obtained in such experiments, the channel
bit rate can be ascertained for the system configuration under
consideration. Furthermore, bit rates for other degrees of
reliability (i.e., for other Po, P1, &, and ß) can be estimated by
construction of other decision curves over the same data base
and thus provide a measure of the bit rate per degree of
reliability.
In summary, the procedures described here can provide for a
specification of the characteristics of a remote-sensing channel
under well-defined conditions. These procedures also provide
for a determination of the feasibility of such a channel for
particular applications.
APPENDIX B
REMOTE-VIEWING TRANSCRIPT
Following is the unedited transcript of the first experiment
· with an SRI volunteer (S6), a mathematician in the computer
science laboratory, with no previous experience in remote
viewing. The target, determined by random procedure, was
White's Plaza, a plaza with fountain at Stanford University
(shown in Fig. 8). As is our standard protocol, the experi-
menter with the subject is kept ignorant of the specific target
visited as well as the contents of the target pool. The experi-
menter's statements and questions are italics.
Today is Monday, October 7th. It is 11:00 and this is a re-
mote viewing experiment with Russ Targ, Phyllis Cole, and Hal
Puthoff. In this experiment Hal will drive to a remote site
chosen by a random process. Phyllis Cole will be the remote
viewer, and Russ Targ is the monitor. We expect this experi-
ment to start at twenty minutes after eleven and run for fif-
teen minutes.
It is just about twenty minutes after eleven and Hal should
be at his target location by now.
Why don't you tell me what kind of pictures you see and
what you think he might be doing or experiencing.
The first thing that came to mind was some sort of a large,
square kind of a shape. Like Hal was in front of it. It was a
... not a building or something, it was a square. I don't know
ir
if it was a window, but something like that so that the bottom
line of it was not at the ground. About where his waist was, at
least. That's what it seemed to me. It seems outdoors some-
how. Tree.
Does Hal seem to be looking at that square ?
I don't know. The first impression was that he wasn't, but I
have a sense that whatever it was was something one might
look at. I don't know if it would be a sign, but something that
one might look at.
Can you tell if it is on the ground or vertical?
It seemed vertical.
I don't have a sense that it was part of anything particular.
It might be on a building or part of a building, but I don't
know. There was a tree outside, but I also got the impression
of cement. I don't have the impression of very many people
or traffic either. I have the sense that he is sort of walking
back and forth. I don't have any more explicit picture than
that.
Can you move into where he is standing and try to see what
he is looking at?
I picked up he was touching something-something rough.
Maybe warm and rough. Something possibly like cement.
It is twenty-four minutes after eleven.
Can you change your point of view and move above the
scene so you can get a bigger picture of what's there?
I still see some trees and some sort of pavement or some-
thing like that. Might be a courtyard. The thing that came to
mind was it might be one of the plazas at Stanford campus or
something like that, cement.
Some kinds of landscaping.
I said Stanford campus when I started to see some things in
White Plaza, but I think that is misleading.
I have the sense that he's not moving around too much.
That it's in a small area.
I guess I'll go ahead and say it, but I'm afraid I'm just putting
on my impressions from Stanford campus. I had the impres-
sion of a fountain. There are two in the plaza, and it seemed
that Hal was possibly near the, what they call Mem Claw.
What is that?
It's a fountain that looks rather like a claw. It's a black
sculpture. And it has benches around it made of cement.
Are there any buildings at the place you are looking at? Are
there any buildings? You described a kind of a courtyard.
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Usually at some places there should be a building, large or
small that the courtyard is about. Look at the end or the sides
of the courtyard. Is there anything to be seen?
I have a sense that there are buildings. It's not solid build-
ings. I mean there are some around the periphery and I have a
sense that none of them are very tall. Maybe mostly one story,
maybe an occasional two story one.
Do you have any better idea of what your square was that
you saw at the outset?
No. I could hazard different kinds of guesses.
Does it seem part of this scene?
It ... I think it could be. It could almost be a bulletin board
or something with notices on it maybe.
Or something that people are expected to look at. Maybe a
window with things in it that people were expected to look at.
What kind of trees do you see in this place?
I don't know what kind they are. The impression was that.
they were shade trees and not terribly big. Maybe 12 feet of
trunk and then a certain amount of branches above that. So
that the branches have maybe a 12 foot diameter, or some-
thing. Not real big trees.
New trees rather than old trees?
Yeah, maybe 5 or 10 years old, but not real old ones.
Is there anything interesting about the pavement?
No. It seems to be not terribly new or terribly old. Not
very interesting. There seems to be some bits of landscaping
around. Little patches of grass around the edges and periph-
eries. Mayte some flowers. But, not lush.
You saw some benches. Do you want to tell me about them?
.
Well, that's my unsure feeling about this fountain. There
was some kind of benches of cement. Curved benches, it felt
like.
They were of rough cement.
What do you think Hal is doing while he is there?
I have a sense that he is looking at things trying to project
them. Looking at different things and sort of walking back
and forth not covering a whole lot of territory.
Sometimes standing still while he looks around.
I just had the impression of him talking, and I almost sense
that it was being recorded or something. I don't know if he
has a tape recorder, but if it's not that, then he is saying some-
thing because it needed to be remembered. It's 11:33. He's
just probably getting ready to come back.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The authors wish to thank the principal subjects, Mrs. Hella
Hammid, Pat Price, and Ingo Swann, who showed patience and
forbearance in addition to their enthusiasm and outstanding
perceptual abilities. We note with sadness the death of one of
our subjects, Mr. Price. We express our sincere thanks also to
Earle Jones, Bonnar Cox, and Dr. Arthur Hastings, of SRI, and
Mrs. Judith Skutch and Richard Bach, without whose en-
couragemest and support this work could not have taken
place.
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[63] M. A. Persinger, "ELF waves and ESP," New Horizons Trans.
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.
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2, FEBRUARY 1982
The Persistent Paradox of Psychic Phenomena:
An Engineering Perspective
ROBERT G. JAHN
Invited Paper
Abstract-Although a variety of so-called psychic phenomena have at-
tracted man's attention throughout recorded history, organized scholarly
effort to comprehend such effects is just one century old, and systematic
academic research roughly half that age. Over recent years, a sizeable
spectrum of evidence has been brought forth from reputable laboratories
in several disciplines to suggest that at times human consciousness can
acquire information inaccessible by any known physical mechanism
(ESP), and can influence the behavior of physical systems or processes
(PK), but even the most rigorous and sophisticated of these studies
display a characteristic dilemma: The experimental results are rarely rep-
licable in the strict scientific sense, but the anomalous yields are well
beyond chance expectations and a number of common features thread
through the broad range of reported effects. Various attempts at theoret-
ical modeling have so far shown little functional value in explicating
experimental results, but have served to stimulate fundamental re-exam-
ination of the role of consciousness in the determination of physical
reality. Further careful study of this formidable field seems justified,
but only within the context of very well conceived and technically im-
peccable experiments of large data-base capability, with disciplined at-
tention to the pertinent aesthetic factors, and with more constructive
involvement of the critical community.
Prologue
"The world of psychic phenomena might be likened to a vast,
fog-shrouded swamp, wherein are reported to dwell a bewilder-
ing array of bizarre phenomenological creatures, all foreign to
our normal perceptual and analytical catalogs. Some scholars
who have explored this clouded domain have returned to an-
nounce categorically that all such life is illusory-mere sunken
stumps and swirling subsurface shadows, inviting misperception
by the gullible and misrepresentation by the purveyors. But
others of comparable conviction have described in minute de-
tail their observations of a variety of extraordinary beings of
awesome dimensions and capability. Some of these are claimed
to appear unexpectedly, erupting from the roily depths to
flash momentarily in the sunlight of human experience, only
to disappear again before any systematic calibration of their
characteristics can be taken. Others are reportedly enticed to
more replicable and controlled behavior, but only by persons
of special talent or extensive training. Much invalid, even
fraudulent evidence of such activity has been touted by ex-
ploiters of these mysteries, thereby casting deep suspicion on
all other testimony. When fully sifted, only a very few legiti-
Manuscript received July 15, 1981; revised October 26, 1981. This
work was supported in part by the McDonnell Foundation, Inc., and
by the John E. Fetzer Foundation, Inc., The Explorers Club, the Insti-
tute of Noetic Sciences, and the Little River Foundation.
The author is Dean of the School of Engineering/Applied Science,
Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.
mate specimens seem to have been captured, by tediously de-
liberate trolling of the brackish domain, or by more incisive
invasion of its turbid interior, and even these have proven so
incomprehensible and so delicate to exposure, and the imposed
criteria for their credibility have been so severe, that they have
not been fully persuasive. Yet the goal remains alluring, end
the search continues.
INTRODUCTION
W
ITH THIS unlikely bit of allegorical musing. I venture
to begin the most extraordinary writing task I have yet
attempted: to respond to the request of the Editors
of this journal for a critical review of the status and prognosis
of scientific research into so-called psychic phenomena. I do
so with some trepidation, first because the topic is far from
my principal line of scholarship and my involvement with it
has been brief and tightly circumscribed, and second, because
of the intensity of reactions any commentary on this subiect
tends to call forth from many quarters.
For these reasons, it may be well at the outset to specify my
perspective on the field and the purpose that I hope this article
will serve. My formal training is that of an engineer and applied
physicist, and the bulk of my research has concerned a sequence
of topics in the broad domain of the aerospace sciences: Fluid
mechanics, ionized gases, plasmadynamics, and electric propul-
sion. In my present position as Dean of the School of Engineer-
ing and Applied Science of Princeton University, I have occa-
sion to be involved with an even broader selection of topics
selected for undergraduate independent projects, and it was
in that context some four years ago that I was requested by
one of our very best students to supervise a study of psychic
phenomena. More specifically, this young lady proposed to
bring her talents and background in electrical engineering and
computer science to bear on some experiments in controlled,
low-level psychokinesis. Although I had no previous experience,
professional or personal, with this subject, for a variety of
pedagogical reasons I agreed, and together we mapped a tenta-
tive scholarly path, involving a literature search, visits to appro-
priate laboratories and professional meetings, and the design,
construction, and operation of simple experiments. My initial
oversight role in this project led to a degree of personal involve-
ment with it, and that to a growing intellectual bemusement,
to the extent that by the time this student graduated, I was
persuaded that this was a legitimate field for a high technologist
to study and that I would enjoy continuing to do so.
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"professional staff, secured the
requisite funding from a few private sources, and undertaken
a modest experimental program in selected aspects of the field
that could ultimately have some engineering implications. I
should emphasize that my fractional involvement with this
program remains quite minor in comparison to my other re-
sponsibilities, and that the work is still very preliminary and
tentative, but it provides the base of cognizance for my broader
observations on the field as a whole.
The intention of this article is to provide some balanced per-
spective on the modern status of this conceptually and logis-
tically difficult subject. Certainly no field of scholarly endeavor
has proven more frustrating, nor has been more abused and
misunderstood, than the study of psychic phenomena. Dealing
as it does as much with impressionistic and aesthetic evidence
as with analytical substance, and carrying by its nature strongly
subjective and numenistic overtones, it has been incessantly
prostituted by charlatans, lunatics, and sensationalists, catego-
rically rejected by most of the scientific establishment, and
widely misunderstood by the public at large. Interspersed
with this, and greatly encumbered by it, a pattern of legitimate
effort to comprehend and utilize the purported phenomena
has evolved to a point where some dispassionate assessment of
its accomplishments can be attempted. The questions addressed
by this review are whether, once the overburdens of illegitimate
activity and irresponsible criticism are removed, there remains
sufficient residue of valid evidence to justify continued research
and, if so, how this research might most effectively be styled,
facilitated, and evaluated.
Before addressing these issues directly, it may be helpful to
review briefly the historical evolution of the field, its contem-
porary nomenclature and conceptual organization, and the
dimensions of current activity. This can then be followed by
a general overview and critique of the modern research, and
that in turn by more detailed description of a few specific
efforts, drawn primarily from our own work. Toward the
close, we shall attempt to survey several theoretical approaches
to modeling of psychic processes and comment briefly on po-
tential implications and applications of the phenomena. In all
of this, no tone of advocacy is intended, other than for objec-
tive assessment of the evidence in hand.
HISTORY
In a sense, the study of psychic phenomena is one of the
oldest of human endeavors [1]-[7]. As far back as can be
traced, mortal man has pondered the supernatural in one form
or another. Cave drawings at Lascaux and Altamira, circa
20 000 B.C., reflect this preoccupation, and the religious
rites of early societies of both the eastern and western worlds
were heavily loaded with psychic formalisms. The classic
civilizations of Egypt, Greece, and Rome dealt extensively in
psychic process. The Delphic Oracle was politically important
from the earliest Hellenic times to the age of Alexander the
Great, and was consulted on problems as diverse as the proper
measures to stop a plague, the constitutions of Greek city-states,
and the best locations for new colonies. Even Aristotle, one of
the most empirical of the classical philosophers, examined the
causal links in prophetic dreams.
Virtually every form of organized religion practiced by man
has been thoroughly laced with various forms of psychic mech-
anism. The Bible, like most other basic theological texts, treats
psychic process as a central ingredient, in a tone so matter-of-
fact that one is inclined to believe that people of those times
accepted such events rather routinely. Indeed, the Bible is an
excellent catalog of psychic phenomena; virtually every cate-
gory of effect identified today is illustrated there in one form
or another.
Christian writers and philosophers, from Augustine to the
Reformation, recount many purported instances of psychic
phenomena, usually, attributed to visitations of divine grace
or demonic posession. Secular medieval writing also abounds
withi supernatural and mystical reference, and even in the
Renaissance period it is still difficult to separate psychic allu-
sion from religious dogma, although both were then translated
into more organized forms in art ind literature. Early in the
16th century the celebrated Swiss physician and philosopher
Paracelsus wrote extensively on psychic capabilities and po-
tentialities. In his words:
The mind of man is the microcomic counterpart of the uni-
versal mind
. . One man may communicate his thoughts
to another with whom he is in sympathy, at any distance however
great it may be, or he may act upoz the spirit of another person
in such a manner as to influence his actions . . . . [8] .
Perhaps the first major scientific commentaries on the topic
were offered near the turn of the 17th century by Sir Francis Ba-
con, widely regarded as the originator of the scientific method.
In The Advancement of Learning he suggested that "supersti-
tions and the like" should not te excluded from scientific
study, and in his posthumous book, Sylva Sylvarum, he
proposed deliberate investigation of telepathic dreams, psychic
healing, and the influence of "imagination" on the casting of
dice [9]. Some years later, a group of British intellectuals
including Henry More and Joseph Glanvill met regularly to
discuss paranormal topics, and in 1681 Glanvill published
the substance of these studies in z book entitled Saducismus
Triumphatus [10].
Meanwhile, some four centuries of public and church hysteria
over sorcery and witchcraft, as manifested in a sequence of
trials, tortures, and executions, had begun to subside, and by
the mid-18th century, the Roman Church authorized Prospero
Lambertini, who later became Pope Benedict XIV, to carry
out a scholarly investigation of reports of psychic events. His
conclusions, recorded in De Canonizatione [11], were surpris-
ingly unecclesiastical: namely, thit 1) psychic experiences
were not necessarily divine miracles, but could occur to "fools,
idiots, melancholy persons, and brute beasts"; 2) apparitions
had little to do with sanctity or demonic entities; 3) prophesy
occurs more often in sleep than in waking; 4) it is difficult for
a prophet to distinguish his own thoughts from extrasensory
messages; and 5) predictions frequently take symbolic forms.
In all of these, he presaged to some degree modern thoughts
on these topics.
At roughly the same time, Anton Mesmer's discovery of hyp-
nosis opened an alternative route to demonstration and study
of unconscious psychic process that has continued to this day.
Early reports of hypnotized subjects performing telepathic or
clairvoyant tasks were common [12], [13], and although much
of this evidence might now be discounted on the basis of in-
adequate experimental control, interest in hypnosis specifically,
and in various altered states of consciousness generally, as
facilitators of psychic experience persists into some of the
modern experimentation.
Also in this mid-18th century period, a spiritualist move-
ment focused on extrasensory contact with the dead, possibly
influenced by the work of Emanuel Swedenborg [14], [15],
germinated in this country as well as in England, and by the
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religion. Symbolic of the popular preoccupation with the topic,
Mary Todd Lincoln was reported to have held séances in the
White House in the early 1860's [16]. A classic two-volume
work by F. W. H. Myers, entitled Human Personality and the
Survival of Bodily Death [17], brought the topic to its acme
of sophistication, but eventually the fanaticism the movement
attracted and its fraudulent exploitation created a negative
attitude in the scholarly community which prevails yet today.
Despite these millennia of human concern with the paranor-
mal, orderly and organized scholarly search for verification and
understanding of psychic phenomena began only a century
ago, with the establishment in London in 1882 of the Society
for Psychical Research, in whose Proceedings appeared the first
formal publication of controlled experiments in telepathy and
clairvoyance [13], [18], [19]. Three years later the counter-
part organization in this country, the American Society for
Psychical Research, was founded in Boston by several distin-
guished scientists and philosophers. Because of financial
difficulty, this shortly merged with the British group, but re-
emerged in 1905 as a separate entity with its own professional
journal, and has continued as such to the present [20].
Although the SPR attracted a barrage of criticism from the
scientific and intellectual communities, it also attracted
significant participation of eminent scholars from established
fields. Numbered among its presidents are three Nobel Lau-
reates, ten Fellows of the Royal Society, one Prime Minister,
and a substantial list of physicists and philosophers, including
Henry Sidgwick, Frederic W. H. Myers, Lord Rayleigh, Sir J. J.
Thomson, William Mc Dougall, Edmund Gurney, Sir William
Crookes, Sir William Barrett, Henri Bergson, Arthur, Earl of
Balfour, Gardner Murphy, G. N.M. Tyrell, Charles Richet,
Gilbert Murray, and one of the most articulate contributors to
the evolution of critical thought on this topic in this period,
the Harvard psychologist and philosopher, William James.
One of the founders of the ASPR, James wrote extensively
and eloquently on behalf of objective and disciplined study of
psychic phenomena [21]-[25] :
Any one with a healthy sense for evidence, a sense not methodi-
cally blunted by the sectarianism of 'science,' ought now, it
seems to me, to feel that exalted sensibilities and memories,
veridical phantasms, haunted houses, trances with supernormal
faculty, and even experimental thought-transference, are natural
kinds of (phenomena) which ought, just like other natural events,
to be followed up with scientific curiosity [25].
Entering the 20th century, a new perspective on psychic phe-
nomena was provided by the emergence of psychology as a
scholarly discipline, and especially by the early efforts in clinical
psychology and psychoanalytic therapy. The patriarch of this
evolution, Sigmund Freud, was a member of the SPR and con-
tributed, albeit somewhat reluctantly, to its publications [26],
[27]. His recognition and exploration of the unconscious
mind and of the function of dreams prompted Myers to suggest
a possible explication of various psychic effects which is still
of theoretical value [17]. Freud's interest in parapsychology
increased toward the end of his life, and he is reported to have
conceded informally that were he to begin his career anew, he
would focus on this topic.
Freud's former protege, Carl Jung, who had written his Ph.D.
thesis on the psychology of occult phenomena, pursued ex-
ploration of the unconscious to deeper dimensions of para-
normal experience, publishing widely on such subjects as telep-
athy, mediumship, synchronicity, the collective unconscious,
and theoretical models of psychic process [28]-[30]. In
... the relationship between doctor and patient, especially
when a transference on the part of the patient occurs, or a more
or less unconscious identification of doctor and patient, can lead
to parapsychological phenomena. I have frequently run into this
[30].
Jung's collaboration with the eminent physicist Wolfgang Pauli
on the topic of synchronicity clearly influenced the subsequent
evolution of both careers and of fundamental concepts in both
disciplines [31]. Although much of the established psychologi-
cal community has since rejected parapsychology as a valid
discipline, some interest has been retained by a few clinical
practitioners, presumably because of the demonstrated con-
comitance and similarities of apparent psychic experiences
with certain psychological processes [32], [33].
It was also early in this century that the first organized
academic studies of psychic phenomena were mounted. One
of the more visible of these devolved from gifts and a bequest
from Thomas W. Stanford, brother of the founder of Stanford
University, to endow psychic research at that institution, and
to this day the university provides support of a "psychic research
fellow" and retains a collection of so-called "apports" indicative
of the donor's long personal involvement with the field. Modest
research programs were also undertaken at Harvard and a few
European universities in the first decades of this century, as
evidenced by occasional publications in various established
journals.
The benchmark academic effort, however, germinated at
Duke University in the late 1920's, when William McDougall,
who had been James' successor at Harvard, arrived to chair the
department of psychology and appointed J. B. Rhine and
Louisa Rhine, "to study the claims to scientific value of the
field known as psychical research." Their early tentative
efforts in the study of postmortem survival gradually evolved
into a laboratory for controlled research in "extrasensory per-
ception," as they first termed the process. In this laboratory
were established many of the basic concepts and protocols of
modern psychic research, as well as the first extensive and sys-
tematic data bases of several types of psychic experimentation.
The professional and personal history of the Rhines and their
laboratory is a fascinating saga in its own right, but would take
us too far afield here [34]-[37]. A few excerpts from a 1967
address of J. B. Rhine to the American Psychological Associa-
tion, in which he attempted to summarize his first two decades
of intensive study, give hint of the inherent attractions and
frustrations of this field, and of the man's optimistic vision:
The phenomena that were being studied began to show lawful
interrelations and even a degree of unity. One by one the major
claims, based originally only upon spontaneous human experi-
ences, were subjected to laboratory test and experimentally veri-
fied .... Certain general characteristics of the psi process became
clear during this period. The most revealing of these is the sub-
ject's lack of conscious control over any type of psi ability, a
characteristic which accounts for its elusive nature. It was new
methodological ground, even for psychology .... Also, we were
surprised to find that psi ability is widespread, probably even a
specific human capacity rather than a capability possessed by a
few rare individuals as had been the popular belief. Evidence
that. psi is not linked with illness or abnormality was another
welcome advance .... By 1951. . . a healthy young science was
emerging [38].
In 1937, the Rhines began publication of the Journal of
Parapsychology, which remains a leading journal in the field
today. A professional organization calling itself the Parapsy-
chological Association was formed in 1957, and in 1969 was
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accepted as an affiliate by the American Association for the
Advancement of Science.
At the present time, there are eight English language publica-
tions covering this field [39], supplemented by numerous less
formal magazines and countless books of widely varying quality
and relevance. Research activity is reported from some twenty
U.S. universities and colleges and at least as many institutions
in Western Europe [40], but in most cases it is of very small
scale. There are very few academic programs of study, although
some fifty M.A. and Ph.D. theses have been accepted on psychic
topics at reputable universities over the past forty years [41].
Some ten research institutes and private corporations in the
United States have also authorized publications and reports in
the field [42]. The extent of Eastern Bloc and Oriental efforts
[43]-[54] and of classified research in this country are matters
of considerable speculation on which I cannot comment with
authority.
Further review of contemporary programs will be attempted
in subsequent sections, following an outline of modern nomen-
clature and conceptual organization of the topic. In closing this
historical overview, we might simply observe that in many re-
spects the growth pattern of this field resembles that of the
natural sciences in their earliest days, or perhaps even more
the incubation of classical psychology, in terms of the ab-
sence of replicable basic experiments and useful theoretical
models, the low level of financial support and internal profes-
sional coordination, and the low credibility in the academic
establishment and public sectors. Also like those fields, the
survival and early growth of psychic research can largely be
attributed to the efforts of a few scholars of sufficient convic-
tion, stature, and courage to withstand the rejection of the
orthodox communities.
NOMENCLATURE AND CONCEPTUAL ORGANIZATION
Before turning to an assessment of contemporary research,
it may be useful to specify some notation and delineation of
the field, to an extent consistent with the present limited
comprehension of the phenomena. First, let us agree to a
global definition of "psychic phenomena" (frequently denoted
by "psi" or "\") to include all processes of information and/or
energy exchange which involve animate consciousness in a
manner not currently explicable in terms of known science.
Similarly, let "psychic research" imply any scholarly study of
such phenomena employing scientific methodology, as opposed
to any dogmatic, ritualistic, or theological approaches. Within
these definitions, the field may then be roughly divided into
two major categories: extrasensory perception (ESP) and
psychokinesis (PK).
ESP refers generally to the acquisition of information from
sources blocked from ordinary perception. Under this category
are included such subdivisions as telepathy, which refers to
detection of another person's thoughts; clairvoyance, which
refers to contemporary perception of remote physical objects
or events; precognition and retrocognition, which refer to
perception of future events and events in the past not accessible
by normal recollection; and animal ESP, which encompasses a
variety of seemingly inexplicable capabilities, such as homing,
psi-trailing, collective behavior, communication, etc.
macroscopic distortion or levitation of objects, up to some
very drastic "poltergeist" effects. Psychic healing and man-
plant interactions would be two examples of PK in biological
systems.
Note that in its major subdivision into ESP and PK, the field
conforms to two of the main categories of present-day science
and high technology, ile., that encompassing the extraction, con-
version, transmission. storage, and utilization of information,
and that comprising the same sequence of processing of energy.
Other domains of psychic research can be identified which do
not fit into these major categories of ESP and PK and with which
we shall not be further concerned in this article. Examples
would include research into survival of death, and the family
of "out-of-body experiences (OBE)," including astral protec-
tion, autoscopy, and bilocation. The following table attempts
to summarize the subdivisions in a concise form.
Categories of Psychic Phenomena
I. Extrasensory Perception (ESP)
A. Telepathy
B. Clairvoyance
C. Precognition/Retrocognition
D. Animal ESP
II. Psychokinesis (PK)
A. Physical Systems
B. Biological Systems
III. Survival
A. Reincarnation
B. Apparitions
C. Mediumship
IV. Out-of-Body Experiences (OBE).
Clearly this particular arrangement is neither unique nor
orthogonal. Elements of one category frequently appear in
the context of another, e.g., precognitive clairvoyance; tele-
pathic healing, etc., and occasionally an assignment is ambigu-
ous, e.g., a particular effect may be regarded as precipitated
by PK, or simply to be forecast by precognition. Notwith-
standing, the table may aid in keeping the subsequent illustra-
tions in some order.
PATTERN OF CONTEMPORARY RESEARCH
By its nature and heritage, modern psychic research remains
rather diffuse and lightly structured, making any attempt to
catalog the work by institution or laboratory, or by tracing
developments of given lines of effort, rather ineffective and pre-
mature. Instead, it may be more useful to comment on the
pattern of attention to this field by academic disciplines, noting
the variations in emphasis, methodology, representation, and
interpretation brought to bear, using specific projects only as
illustrations with no implications of hierarchy or attempt at
completeness. Even in this format, no recitation of specific
research results or conclusions will be attempted, since these
can be misleading of incomprehensible when extracted from
the detailed context of their experimental arrangements and
protocols. In later sections, an effort will be made to follow a
few sample experiments through to their particular results and
conclusions.
backgrounds in classical psychology, comprising a controversial
subdiscipline termed "parapsychology." This group has tended
· to approach the field with the traditional psychological proto-
cols and vocabulary, and to interpret results in the context of
By far the most sustained and broadcast attention to this
PK (occasionally termed telekinesis, or psychoenergetics) re- ' field has been given by a cadre of scholars with professional
fers to a palpable influence of consciousness on a physical or
biological system. The interaction may be deliberate or spon-
taneous, and the energy transfer involved may range from
microscopic disturbance of atomic-level processes, through
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18
their clinical, cognitiveAppleverra paghological hostage
with the natural consequence that they have concentrated
mainly on the ESP category of psychic tasks, although some
PK work dots their recent literature. Perhaps the most exten-
sive class of parapsychological research has attempted to
correlate psychic performance with personality variables. The
age, sex, creativity, openness, hostility, extroversion, motiva-
tion, and intelligence of the participants as indices of ability to
perform ESP tasks have been explored at length, and some sig-
nificant correlations, most notably with positive a priori atti-
tudes toward the tasks and with outgoing, creative personalities,
have been reported from several laboratories. Other studies
have searched for connections between psychic performance
and dream recall, learning and response strategies, memory,
and feedback [55]-[61].
A more aggressive style of parapsychological research has in-
voked a variety of altered states of consciousness in attempts
to enhance psychic process. These have included various natu-
ral and traditional practices, such as sleep, meditation, and pro-
gressive relaxation [62]-[67]; more mechanical sensory in-
hibition strategies such as hypnosis, isolation and "ganzfeld"
[66], [68]-[70]; and a few controversial efforts with drug-
induced states [71]. Physiological correlates have also been
sought, using conventional EEG, GSR, and plethysmographic
equipment to monitor neurological, cardiovascular, and mus-
cular response to psychic effort [35], [72]-[75]. The diffi-
culty of obtaining successful replications of previously positive
results and an observed common tendency of participant per-
formance to deteriorate over time ("decline effect") have led
to systematic study of the role of the experimenter in eliciting
results, i.e., to consideration of the possible influence of the
experimenter's personal attitudes, expectations, and style of
interaction with his subjects, as well as the overall environmental
ambience of his laboratory, on the experimental yield [76] -
[81].
Despite its present recalcitrance toward more systematic
study of psychic phenomena, the richly diverse, rapidly matur-
ing parent field of psychology continues to offer an expanding
array of modern methodologies and models which could be
brought to bear on increasingly sophisticated study of this sub-
ject. Computer-assisted linguistic analyses; psychoneurological
studies of attention, perception, and concept formation; social
learning theory and similar approaches to human interactions;
and the emerging formulations of transpersonal and humanistic
aspects of human consciousness, all bear possible relevance to
comprehension of various aspects of this ultra-difficult step-
child, but at the moment, the low level of financial support,
and negative professional peer pressures have discouraged such
enterprise.
The involvement of physicists in psychic research, while con-
siderably less extensive, has been no less dedicated and no less
controversial. Since the days of Sir Francis Bacon, a number
of noted physicists have made excursions into this field,
usually to the bernusement and ridicule of their colleagues of
the day. One of the most notable of these was Sir William
Crookes, discoverer of the element thallium and pioneer in
the physics of low pressure discharges, whose broadside pro-
fessional and personal battles with the scientific establishment
over this issue make entertaining, and possibly enlightening,
reading [82]. Sir Isaac Newton was intensely involved in the
study of alchemy, including some of its more metaphysical
aspects [83], and as already mentioned, Lord Rayleigh and
J. J. Thomson were active members of the S.P.R.
In more recent years the attention of physicists has influenced
:S/A-BRR96/09789R003100030001-4s. First, their in-
terests have focused more on the PK category of problems, i.e.,
the interaction of human consciousness with physical systems,
to balance the predominant ESP interests of the parapsycholo-
gists. Second, more sophisticated experimental equipment
than has typically been available to the psychological com-
munity has been brought to bear on the identification and
correlation of very low-level physical effects. Third, the tradi-
tional theoretical physics formalisms have been directed to the
proposition of various models . of psychic phenomena, from
whence has arisen some hope of establishing the traditional
dialogue between critical experimentation and theoretical
hypothesis essential to any ultimate comprehension and appli-
cation of such phenomena.
Typical of the modern physicist's specific contributions to
the field have been the development and application of a variety
of electronic random event generators (REG) for the purpose
of identifying and correlating PK abilities in human subjects
[84]-[93], and similar application of magnetometers [94],
torsional pendula [95], lasers [96], interferometers [97], and
electronic strain gauges [98], [99] to a variety of other PK
tasks. On the theoretical side, a number of applications of quan-
tum mechanics, statistical thermodynamics, electromagnetic
theory, and other formalisms to the representation of psychic
process have been proposed [100]-[113], and attempts at
some philosophical correlation of the phenomena with other
previously or presently obscure physical processes have been
suggested [114]. Again, despite the open identification of
a few distinguished personalities with such efforts, a more
broadly held categorical rejection of the field has inhibited
much collaborative or systematic attention to it.
Up to this time, the involvement of engineers with psychic
research has been very recent, very sparse, and very much along
the lines of the experimental physicists. Beyond our own
program, which will be outlined in some detail below, I am
aware of only a very few engineering laboratories addressing
any aspects of the field in any substantial and deliberate way
[115]. These have so far tended to concentrate on applied
physics types of experimentation and on aspects of informa-
tion processing, rather than on more empirical technological
applications.
.Another community of scholars to influence the pattern of
psychic research comprises the statisticians and other applied
mathematicians and logicians who have been concerned with
the proper evaluation and interpretation of the research data.
In the absence of any experiments displaying rigid causal
replicability, all of the inferences and hypotheses about psy-
chic phenomena have necessarily been based on either anec-
dotal or statistical evidence. The former defy any systematic
representation; the latter are vulnerable to alternative inter-
pretations and hence to impressionistic bias and argument.
: Early in the emergence of mathematical statistics as an
integral discipline, S. S. Wilks found himself involved in a
controversy over the validity of the statistical procedures of
early psychic researchers, and published some recommenda-
tions for methods that could be applied to telepathy experi-
ments [116]. Since that time, much of the commentary from
the critical community has addressed perceived flaws in the
statistical methodology underlying the experimental evidence
[117], [118], and the advocate community has reacted by
paying disproportionate attention to this aspect of their logic.
Most of the encyclopaedic references in the field contain
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substantial components on the statistical methods [119],
and the leading journals regularly display intense dialogues on
specific statistical issues [120]-[124]. At least one of these
journals routinely refers all articles submitted for publication to
a consultant statistician as a part of their review process. A
few illustrations of the statistical questions that can arise in
psychic experiments appear in the detailed examples presented
below.
A number of other disciplines have played roles in the evolu-
tion of the study of psychic process and continue to contribute,
albeit somewhat more peripherally. A succession of philoso-
phers, from Aristotle through James and Bergson to C. D. Broad
in the present era, have mused on these topics [21]-[25],
[125]-[129]. The intersections of the field with anthropology,
theology, and history have been approached from many per-
spectives ranging from aesthetic to analytic, and from dogmatic
to scholarly [130]-[134]. Its relevance to the study and
practice of medicine has been an enduring and intense debate,
focusing in the present day on the propriety and efficacy of
holistic health strategies and psychic healing. Isolated instances
of interest on the part of chemists, biologists, geologists, and
archaeologists can be found, and the application of psychic.
techniques in criminology and law enforcement, while less
rigorous than most of the academic efforts, contributes further
anecdotal evidence to the overall data base. In the arts and
„humanities, the topic continues to provide stimuli for a variety
of creative compositions.
Still other areas could be cited, but these become progressively
more satellite than central to the task of this paper. Rather
than pursuing this disciplinary survey further, it seems prefer-
able next to focus in greater detail on a few contemporary
studies that can serve to illustrate more specifically the bizarre
phenomena, the awkward and tedious protocols, and the un-
conventional theoretical concepts that arise in this class of
research. Although these will provide a better sense of the
status of the field than any attempt to summarize results from
the diffuse multidisciplinary pattern of effort sketched above,
one general assessment may be useful at this point. Namely,
throughout all of the work just skimmed, and that sharpened
somewhat below, I am aware of no reputable investigator who
has claimed, let alone demonstrated, any psychic experiment
approaching classical scientific replicability. What have been
put forward are a varied assortment of observations, currently
inexplicable in terms of established science, which display cer-
tain common phenomenological and psychological features,
and which could have substantial implications for basic physical
theory and ultimate practical applications. The following ex-
amples are presented in that spirit.
PSYCHOKINESIS
.
The first group of experiments selected as more detailed illus-
trations of contemporary psychic research are drawn from the
general subdomain of PK. As defined above, this broad cate-
gory of purported psychic phenomena encompasses the possible
influence of human consciousness on the behavior of physical
or biological systems or processes, and comprises several loosely
related classes of effect characterized by different scales of
energy, forms of manifestation, replicability, and statistical be-
havior. Confining attention to interactions with physical objects
or systems, the most popularly 'publicized class features the de-
formation, levitation, or other macroscopic disturbance of ob-
jects, as commonly propounded by professional performers,
mediums, and various Eastern practitioners [135]-[137]. Al-
though a number of serious efforts have been made to submit
such demonstrations to rigorous scientific testing, these have
tended to yield only equivocal confirmations, fodder for the
critical community, and some embarrassment and frustration
to the investigators.
Of a yet more bizarre nature are the family of very rare and
spectacular "poltergeist" effects, more technically termed
"recurrent spontaneous psychokinesis" (RSPK), wherein are
reported specific major events of levitation, vibration, telepor-
tation, and breakage of a wide range of objects, a variety of
acoustical and electromagnetic phenomena, and various optical
aberrations [138], [139]. For years these phenomena were
naively attributed to manifestations of the spirit world, or return
of the dead to "haunted" houses, and inspired countless ho.Tor
movies and pulp-magazine articles. Recently, some order has
been brought to this weird business by systematic surveys of
documented poltergeist cases undertaken by A. R.G. Owen,
W. G. Roll, J. G. Pratt, and others [138]-[142]. In one of
these surveys, 116 cases of reported poltergeist activity, rang-
ing back to the year 1612, were re-examined. Of these, 92
were found to be associated with particular individuals living
in the affected dwelling, most of whom were adolescents, and
most of whom were affected by some neurological emotional
ailment, most commonly epilepsy. Often a precipitating
traumatic event could be identified which seemed to initiate
the activity, after which the general pattern involved a period
of relatively mild precursor events, a sequence of major dis-
turbances, and a period of "after shocks," extending as much
as several weeks beyond the main events. Controlled experimen-
tation on poltergeist phenomena has proven virtually impossible
because of their infrequent and unpredictable occurrence
pattern and because of the delicate physiological and emotional
situations prevailing in most cases, which have taken precedence
over the technical investigations. Nevertheless, these processes
have retained some fascination because of the magnitude of
the energy transfer involved and because of their apparent
correlation with specific types of individuals and neurological
disorders.
The most systematic and persuasive studies of PK, however,
have dealt with much more modest scales of physical distur-
bance, in some cases reaching down to the atomic level. This
somewhat more viable domain has been addressed by numerous
investigators in various ways, but basically one of two strategies
is followed. In one approach, relatively simple physical systems
are employed-mechanical, electrical, optical, thermal, etc.,-
each of which involves a particular component or process that
is ultra-sensitive to disturbance. The experiment is arranged to
signify such disturbance by a relatively large change in some dis-
play which provides feedback indication to the operator, much
in the spirit of a biofeedback instrument, and simultaneously to
provide some form of permanent data record. Examples of this
class of experiment would include the use of magnetometers,
torsional pendula, optical interferometers, electronic strain
gauges, glow discharges [143], and sensitive thermistors [144].
In the second approach, attempt is made to distort the nor-
mal statistical patterns of various random physical processes on
either a microscopic or macroscopic scale. In a sense, these ex-
periments deal with energy rearrangement within the systems,
i.e., with their information content or entropy, rather than with
energy transfer to the system per se. The earliest versions of
this class employed dice, or other simple mechanical implements
of well-known statistical behavior [37], [92], [145]-[148],
but more recent studies have tended to employ more sophisti-
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App
V
FFINGES ON SCREEN
FABRY PEROT ETALON
---
MOVING
PLATE
EXTENDED
LIGHT
SOURCE
LENS
PHOTO
MULTIPLIER
1
PIEZO
TUBE
PIN
HOLE
REFLECTIVE
COATINGS
SCREEN
RAMP DRIVE
CHART RECORDER
Fig. 1. Photograph and schematic of Fabry-Perot interferometer.
.
cated apparatus, such as electronic REG's like those described
in detail below.
Although the first two categories of PK feature more dramatic
effects and thus have enjoyed greater popular attention, the
smaller scale phenomena seem more amenable to controlled
experimentation and theoretical interpretation, and the re-
mainder of this section deals only with such. Perhaps the most
efficient means of elaborating on this type of research would be
to review briefly the spectrum of such experiments in progress
in our own laboratory, and then to display and attempt to
interpret data from one of them. In so doing, we intend no
neglect of other work noted in the references, but simply deal
from greater familiarity.
As examples of the first class of low-level PK experiment
mentioned above, we have in operation a Fabry-Perot optical
interferometer, a dual-thermistor bridge, and a photoelastic
strain detector. In the interferometer experiment, shown in
the photograph and schematic of Fig. 1, a Coherent Optics
Instrument #360-370, using a diffuse sodium lamp as source,
is adjusted to produce circular fringes on a screen visible to the
operator (Fig. 2). Small changes in the separation of the inter-
ferometer plates cause the fringes to migrate radially inward or
outward. By visual observation of the fringe movement, plate
motions of less than 0.1 wavelength can be readily detected.
Via a pinhole in the screen, the brightness of the central fringe
is recorded by a photomultiplier/chart recorder system at an
order of magnitude higher sensitivity, thereby preserving quan-
titative output data while the operator simultaneously sees an
attractive optical display of his progress for use as feedback.
The task of the operator is to elicit significant migration of
the fringe pattern in a stated direction relative to the normal
baseline drift of the instrument. The protocols involve rigid
control and monitoring of the environment of the instrument
and surrounding laboratory, and the interspersing of baseline
responses with active PK efforts obtained under otherwise
identical conditions, including the position of the operator and
any other personnel relative to the instrument. In pilot studies
with this device, a variety of fractional-fringe responses were
observed, using several different operators and various initial
interferometer settings. A more formal procedure has since
been developed which provides more precise conditions for
an ongoing series of trials. In this protocol, the central fringe
is set initially on a maximum gradient position between a
bright and dark fringe, and its progress monitored for subse-
quent periods of baseline or PK effort. Encouragingly repli-
cable data have been obtained from a number of different
operators, in the form of chart recordings of 5-min PK trials
with interspersed 5-min baseline drifts of the instrument. Using
computerized graphic, regression, and spectral analyses of the
data, it is possible to discern characteristics in the hierarchy
of trace derivatives and the Fourier spectra which, while not
definitive, display certain recurrent features [97]. No physical
interpretation has been attempted other than to acknowledge
that the observed fringe migrations could also be indicative
of slight changes in the index of refraction of the air in the
plate gap or in the wavelength of the light source, as well as of
a displacement of the plates.
..
The dual-thermistor experiment comprises a much more sen-
sitive version of a multiple-thermistor arrangement on which
PK influence was originally reported by Schmeidler [144].
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Fig. 2. Interferometer fringe patterns.
As shown in Fig. 3, two Omega Engineering thermistors,
Model UVA 3254, each with its own electronic bridge and volt-
age source, are connected differentially to a Tektronix 1A7A
oscilloscope preamplifier and to a visual feedback display. With
suitable ground planes and cable shielding, sensitivities greater
than 0.001 K are obtainable, and by subtracting the two output
signals the major portion of spurious electrical and mechanical
interference is eliminated. The effects of ambient thermal vari-
ations in the laboratory are essentially excluded by enclosing
each of the thermistors in identical Pyrex flasks immersed in
a large liquid reservoir, in which configuration the undisturbed
system exhibits stable baselines over long periods of time.
Using the same interspersed baseline protocol as in the inter-
ferometer experiment, the task of the operator is to achieve an
increase in the reading of one thermistor with respect to the
other or in some more subtle fashion to alter the PK response
relative to the baseline. Some such effects have indeed been ob-
served, but little systematic data have so far been accumulated
on this experiment.
Also in a preliminary stage is an experiment to monitor in-
ternal strain in a solid specimen via photoelastic optical tech-
niques. Several studies have been reported on the PK deforma-
tion of solids, but most of these have employed conventional
engineering strain gauges or microacoustic sensors as detectors
[98], [99], [135], [149], [150], both of which require sub-
stantial interface electronics before a feedback signal reaches
the operator, leaving unclear the role of the sensor in any pos-
sible PK influence. Although less sensitive than the electronic
"methods, photoelastic techniques have the advantage of relating
· the operator more directly to the sensitive element of the ex-
periment via an attractive optical fringe pattern much like that
of the interferometer (Fig. 4). This equipment and technique
may also be applied to a sensitive levitation experiment wherein
Fig. 3. Dual-thermistor apparatus.
the object is suspended on a photoelastic lever arm of suitable
dimensions.
Within the second category of low-level PK experiment, we
are employing or are now constructing several devices based on
random physical processes, some macroscopic in scale, others
deriving from atomic-scale processes. The largest of these in-
volves a 6 X 10 ft apparatus, shown in Fig. 5, which drops some
10 000 & in spheres through a "quincunx" array of 336 nylon
pegs in about 12 min. As a consequence of the multitudinous
collisions with the pegs and with each other, the spheres are dis-
persed into a good approximation of a Gaussian distribution
as they fall into 19 collecting compartments at the bottom.
The goal of the operator is to distort the distribution in some
prescribed fashion to a significant degree compared to empirical
baseline experience. Photodiode counters mounted in funnels
at the entrance to each bin provide real-time digital displays of
the bin populations to supplement the more qualitative feedback
of the growing ball stacks seen by the operator and to provide
quantitative data for on-line statistical analysis. Fig. 5 shows
a typical baseline distribution for this device and a distorted
distribution obtained in a particular PK effort. Full statistical
analysis of the significance of any particular achieved pattem
is a challenging problem in its own right, since it must deal
with a combination of 19 bin populations, each of which has
its own empirical baseline mean and standard deviation, all
constrained by total ball count.
A somewhat similar experiment, not yet refined, employs a
device which allows small metallic or dielectric spheres to
bounce on an optically flat, precisely horizontal circular plate
of glass, which is oscillated by a vibration coil at frequencies
from 10 Hz to 20 000 Hz. In the absence of any external dis-
turbance, a sphere started at the center of the plate executes a
random walk toward the outside edge, arriving with equal prob-
ability at any azimuth. Since the sphere may make as many as
105 collisions in the process, it is vulnerable to statistical distor-
tion of its trajectory and consequent terminus. The task of the
operator is preferentially to direct the sphere to a prescribed
terminal quadrant.
In an attempt to intervene with a random physical process at
the atomic level, we have constructed a large glow-discharge
device whose luminous patterns are indicative of the mean free
path of the current-carrying electrons against inelastic excita-
tion collisions with the background gas. This device, shown in
Fig. 6, presents a 36-in X 2-in diam cylindrical glow marked by
a sequence of bright and dark zones along its positive column
1.
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.
Fig. 4. Photoelastic stress pattern.
"NORMAL" DISTRIBUTION
DISTORTED DISTRIBUTION
Fig. 5. Gaussian analog device and distributions.
typical of de discharges in a given range of gas pressure and
terminal voltage. The number and locations of these striations
are sensitive to the electron inelastic mean free path, which in
Fig. 6. Glow discharge experiment.
turn depends on the gas type and density, the electron tempera-
ture, and the local electric field. Striation position is monitored
by photoelectric detectors, and the goal of the operator is to
expand or contract the pattern on demand, to a significant
extent compared to the normal background jitter and drift.
Protocols are much the same, output data take the same gen-
eral form, and are analyzed by the same algorithms as in the
interferometer and photoelastic experiments.
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+
DISPLAYS
I
PRECISION
PRE -
AMPLIFIER
LOW -
PASS
FILTER
AMP
₩CLIP
AMP
SAMPLER
GATE
SELECTOR
-
ELGENGO
NOISE SOURCE
+ 3602 A1512 4
SAMPLE
PULSE
GENERATOR
Fig. 7. Functional diagram of REG.
-
(a)
3
C
C
C
-
1
)
(b)
(c)
Fig. 8. REG waveforms: (a) Filtered noise. (b) Clipped noise.
(c) Sampling pulses.
A number of other atomic-scale random system PK experi-
ments are under consideration, design, or construction, involv-
ing such processes as information storage on a microelectronic
chip, the spontaneous decay of phosphorescent surfaces, lam-
inar to turbulent transition in a fluid stream, atomic and molec-
ular resonators, and resonant acoustical or electrical cavities,
but none of these is far enough advanced to merit description
here. Rather, we shall concentrate for the remainder of this
section on a more detailed presentation of our most serviceable
experiment, and the one on which we have the largest data
base, the electronic REG.
RANDOM EVENT GENERATOR EXPERIMENTS
REG's have been the most widely used and most productive
facilities for experimentation with low-level PK. Although a
broad variety of such devices exist, most involve four conceptu-
ally and functionally separable components: an electronic noise
source; a sampling system which examines the noise at pre-
scribed intervals and prepares an output pulse train correspond-
ing to the samples thus obtained; a system which analyzes the
pulse train in accordance with preset instructions and prepares
suitable output for a feedback system; and the feedback dis-
play itself, which informs the operator of the results of the
sampling process.
The particular version we have employed utilizes a packaged
commercial noise source module based on a solid-state junction
and precision preamplifier (Elgenco Model 3602A15124), but
modules employing radioactive decay units or glow discharges
can be readily substituted. This source produces a random noise
spectrum up to several megahertz, which our logic circuit first
filters to a flat spectrum from 50 to 20 000 Hz, then amplifies
and clips to the flat-topped profile shown in Figs. 7 and 8. This
is then sampled by a regular train of gate pulses, yielding a cor-
responding random succession of positive and negative output
pulses indicative of the sign of the noise at the time of sampling,
and these are then counted. Since the average time between
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+/-
COUNTER
1
P
C
AA

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Anony Output
NOISE
SOURCE
Signal
CIRCUIT
Event
SAMPLE
CONTROL
CIRCUIT
EVENT COUNTER
AND LED DISPLAY
O
EVENT
MODE
SELECTOR
Externol Noise Source
Trein cí
N Pulses
SCALE -OF -N
COUNTER
+ 10 Volt
+
0
-
Test
Switch
-
Gate OFF
on
GATE
- LO Volt
Gale ON
SAMPLING
RATE
GENERATOR
Int
EVENT COUNTER
AND LED DISPLAY
Duplicate
TRIAL COUNTER
AND :5 DISPLAY
Rote
Control
Print Command
SCALE . OF - 50
COUNTER
START
CONTROL
CIRCUIT
M
-0
EVENT
COUNTER
( 5 micro sec. width)
Manuel Stort or
Automatic Repeat
(50 Tings )
PRIMER
TRIAL
COUNTER
0+0
Stort Switches
Remote
Reset to
Printer
Triol Counter
C
E
Reset Signal
To Eveni
Counters
AIM 65
POPII/45
TEAK
Resel
Fig. 9. Electrical schematic of REG.
zero crossings of the clipped noise waveform is about 30 us,
sampling rates to about 15 000/s can be tolerated with statis-
tical independence.
The full functional array is sketched in Fig. 9, and a photo-
graph of the boxed units in Fig. 10. By panel setting the
sampler may be instructed to take "trials" of 100, 200, or 2000
samples, at a frequency of 1, 10, 100, 1000, or 10 000/s. The
counting system may be set to count only positive pulses, only
negative pulses, or to alternate positive and negative counting
on successive samples. The alternating positive/negative mode
effectively factors out any systematic bias in the noise source,
and is the mode employed in all the experiments reported here.
The counting results are displayed by LED zrays tracking both
the running count of each trial and the cozcurrent mean rela-
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:
Int.
INTERNAL
SAMPLING
or
Slave Display Unit
God
Print
Analog
Out pui
SIGNAL
LEVEL
HETER
CUMULATIVE
UP/DOWN
COUNTER AND
LED DISPLAY
External Pulte
Gentretor
(Programmable)
Ponel
START
Fig. 10. REG arrangement.

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TABLE 1
REG 200-SAMPLE DATA SUMMARY
Series
Instr.
No.
Trials
Mean
Std.
Dev.
t-score
P.
n+/n_
REG I
B.L.
12 000
100.009
6.994
0.144
0.443
5678/5611
PK +
4 550
100.264
7.037
2.528
0.006
2230/2056
PK-
3 850
99.509
7.063
-4.313
10-5
1716/1926
A PK
8 400
REG II
B.L.
2 500
100.033
6.875
0.239
0.406
1188/1179
PK +
1 950
100.247
6.849
1.590
0.056
916/919
PK-
1 800
99.597
6.775
-2.526
0.006
797/902
A PK
3 750
2.920
0.002
REG III
B.L.
3 500
99.977
7.013
-0.193
0.424
1658/1655
PK +
2 400
100.227
6.821
1.634
0.051
1150/1086
PK-
2 600
99.736
7.026
-1.918
0.028
1192/1270
Δ ΡΚ
5 000
2.507
0.006
EREG I
B.L.
18 000
100.006
6.981
0.115
0.454
8524/8445
II
PK +
8 900
100.250
6.938
3.403
3 × 10-4
4296/4061
III
PK
8 250
99.600
6.989
-5.203
10-7
3705/4098
A PK
17 150
6.107
5 × 10-10
REG Ia
no B.L.
PK +
2 150
100.206
7.091
1.340
0.088
1059/993
954/1019
A PK
4 250
1.213
0.113
REG IIa
B.L.
5 000
100.186
6.974
1.882
0.030
2367/2337
PK +
2 000
100.117
7.041
0.746
0.228
955/950
PK-
1 750
99.941
6.898
-0.360
0.359
803/839
4 PK
3 750
0.772
0.220
EREG I
B.L.
23 000
100.045
6.980
0.978
0.164
10891/10782
Ia
PK+
13 050
100.223
6.979
3.644
10-4
6310/6004
Ila
III
PK-
12 100
99.709
6.968
-4.596
2 × 10-6
5462/5956
Δ ΡΚ
25 150
5.828
3 × 10-9
tive to a preset origin and are permanently recorded on a strip
printer. For most of the experiments described below, an AIM-
65 microprocessor interface is also utilized to insert the trial-
count data on-line into processing routines supported by a
TERAK Model 8510 used as a terminal and PDP 11/45 and
VAX 750 employing a UNIX operating system programmed in
C language. All of the sampling, counting, and display functions
can be simply checked by referring them to an internal or ex-
ternal calibrated pulse train generator.
The device also has a manual/automatic option, whereby it
will either collect its trial samples only when a panel switch
or parallel remote switch is pushed, or it will repeat that process
for 50 trials automatically once activated by the switch. The
operator thus has the option of triggering each trial or of
initiating a repetitive flow of 50 such trials with no further
intervention.
The experiments reported here were performed by a single
operator, seated in front of the device with the remote initia-
tion switch in hand and the LED count indicators and TERAK
terminal display visible. This operator attempted, on instruc-
tion or volition, to distort the trial counts either toward higher
or lower values. The several options of sampling number, sam-
pling frequency, +/- polarity, and manual/automatic sequenc-
ing were variously determined by random instruction, operator
- preference, or experimental practicality, and recorded before
the beginning of each trial. Clearly, the full-matrix of such pos-
sibilities could not be explored, and for our first sequence of
experiments only 200-sample trials were used, at 100 or 1000
counts/s, all counted in the +/- alternating mode. The auto-
matic/manual and high/low options were more thoroughly
tested, in both the volitional and instructed choice modes.
Fifty trials of the 200-sample units comprised a test run, and
data from these were processed individually and in many concat-
enations via a statistics package in the UNIX system developed
specifically for this task. Calculated were the mean, standard
deviation, range, kurtosis, skew coefficient, z-score, t-score,
x2. goodness-of-fit with both 8 and 16 degrees of freedom, and
the corresponding one-tailed probabilities against chance of the
last four measures. Applied to earlier and ongoing baseline
data, this analysis confirmed that in undisturbed operation this
REG conforms very well to a Gaussian approximation to the
appropriate full binary statistics.
The major portion of the results listed below comprised three
separate experimental series, extending over fifteen months,
labeled REG I, REG II, and REG III, respectively. All other
data acquired under slightly less formal conditions of protocol
during this period, included for completeness, are grouped
under two other series, labeled REG Ia and IIa, respectively.
Details of these series protocols, calibration tests, and their in-
dividual results are available in the reference [93]. All told,
'over 25 000 active PK trials were obtained, corresponding to
more than 5 000 000 binary events.
Table I summarizes all of the baseline and PK data acquired
during these five experimental series. A total of 23 000 base-
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..... .
.. .. .. ....
-
PK
2 100
99.945
6.937
-0.365
0.358
II
4.890
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8
% OF TOTAL TRIALS
n= 23000
61-
4
1-
2 -
60
100
120
140
COUNT
Fig. 11. REG 200-sample baseline data on theory.
3000
Px+
2000
A+ : 05
1000
BASELINE
0
- 1000
- 2000
PK"
- 3000
16
-10-
-4000g
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
NUMBER OF TRIALS
Fig. 14. REG cumulative deviations of PK + and PK- 200-sample data.
8
· PK + (n : 13050)
: PK" (n : 12100)
6
% OF TOTAL TRIALS
4
2
O
60
80
100
120
140
COUNT
Fig. 12. REG PK + and PK - 200-sample data on theory.
B
--
6
% OF TOTAL TRIALS
- PK"
4
2
O
60
80
100
120
140
COUNT
Fig. 13. REG PK+ and PK - 200-sample data fitted curves.
line trials were taken under a variety of conditions before,
during, and after the active PK trials. Their overall mean was
100.045, and their standard deviation 6.980, compared with
the values of 100.000 and 7.071 predicted by the theoretical
Gaussian approximation to the appropriate binary statistical
distribution. As shown in Fig. 11, the frequency of count dis-
tribution conformed very well with the theoretical curve.
The results of the PK trials are also presented in Table I and
in Figs. 12 and 13. Briefly, the 13 050 high-instruction trials,
denoted PK+, yielded a mean of 100.23 and a standard devia-
tion of 6.979; the 12 100 low-instruction trials, denoted PK",
yielded a mean of 99.704 and a standard deviation of 6.968.
The one-tailed probability of chance occurrence of the former,
computed from t-score, is about 10-4; of the latter, about
2 × 10-6. The combined probability of the split, i.e., of this
total "direction-of-effort" success, denoted APK, is about 3 X
10-9. ( A number of more elaborate statistical measures have
been applied to these data; the results are not qualitatively
changed thereby.)
As is evident from Figs. 12 and 13, and as is verified by the
0.8
PK +
0.4
T =. 05
CUMULATIVE
0
- 0.4|
PK-
Fix.05
- 0,8
0
2000
4000
6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
NUMBER OF TRIALS
Fig. 16. REG cumulative average deviations of PK * and PK - 200-sample
data.
more detailed statistical tests performed, no significant distor-
tion of the frequency-of-count distributions other than the
shifting of the means has occurred. In other words, the ob-
served effect is to shift the total distributions intact, rather
than to distort any of their higher moments significantly. This
result clearly has felicitous implications for this class of experi-
mentation, since it allows much simpler and faster data collec-
tion and analysis than might otherwise have been anticipated.
It is illustrative to exhibit the overall data behavior via graphs
of the cumulative deviation of the trial score means versus the
accumulated data base. Fig. 14 shows such a representation
for the total data pool plotting PK+, PK", and baseline data
with reference to cumulative 0.05 confidence levels. Fig. 15
uses a similar representation for compounding the PK+ and PK"
data in a "direction of effort" cumulative deviation. (Had REG
Ia and Ila been excluded from these data, the overall slopes
would have been slightly more severe and uniform.)
Alternatively, the cumulative data may be presented in terms
of the progressions of the average deviations from the theoreti-
cal mean, as shown in Fig. 16, where the stochastic variations
6000
5000
CUMULATIVE DEVIATION
4000
Δ ΡΚ
3000
Pt* . 05
2000
1000
BASELINE
0
- 1000
H
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
100.00
12000
14000
NUMBER OF PAIRS OF TRIALS
Fig. 15. REG cumulative deviations in direction of effort of all 200-
sample data.
AVERAGE DEVIATION
:
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terminal values after several thousand trials.
The PK+ and PK" effects also manifest themselves in terms
of the number of trial means recorded above and below the
theoretical value. As displayed in Table I, PK+ efforts were
generally characterized by an excess of trial means above
100.00 and PK" efforts by an excess below. The total con-
catenations in these terms are significant at a level of 0.003
for PK + and 3 X 10-5 for PK".
The ensemble of results acquired in these experiments dis-
play certain instructive general features:
1) The importance of accumulating very large data bases
when dealing with such marginal phenoma is emphasized by
the relative scales of the statistical vagaries and the broader
systematic trends in Figs. 14-16. Although the trends are
established early in the data collection sequence, unambigu-
ous departures from the accumulated vagaries of chance be-
havior occur only well into the total 25 000 trial, 5 000 000
bit. sequence.
2) Over this large a data base, there arises some quantitative
statistical regularity in the PK process, epitomized by the mean
slopes of the cumulative deviations in Figs. 14 and 15 and by
. the terminal values of the average deviations ir. Fig. 16. Traced
back to the elemental binary samples, these values imply direc-
ted inversions from chance behavior of about one or one and a
half bits in every one thousand or, alternatively, of 0.2 or 0.3
bits per trial.
3) The differences between the somewhat larger values for
the PK" deviation and the lesser values for PK+ are only mar-
ginally significant on this data base, but prevail rather uniformly
throughout all the test series. The suspicion that these reflect
some subtle bias in the REG itself is not supported by the base-
line data, which concatenate to a grand mean very slightly
above the theoretical value.
One of the prima., goals of such controlled PK studies at
this early phase in the understanding of the phenomena is to
develop experiments of sufficient yield and replicability that
various parametric correlations may be systematically explored,
thereby hopefully separating the consequential from the incon-
`sequential factors. The experiments outlined above hold some
promise of serviceability for this purpose, but a great deal of
data will need be accumulated to establish any such correla-
tions. Four classes of parameters could be considered: those
associated with the experimental equipment; those associated
with the operator's physiological and emotional characteristics;
those associated with the operator's technique; and various en-
vironmental factors not directly associated with either. So far
we have accumulated only small amounts of data from other
operators, and given the general indication #1 above regarding
the importance of large data bases, we can make no statement
about the generality or peculiarity of our principal operator's
performance. Similarly, we have attempted no systematic vari-
ation of external environmental factors, and although test times,
dates, durations, and laboratory temperature, pressure, and
humidity have been routinely recorded, we cannot comment
on the importance of this category of parameter.
On the matter of operator technique, it should first be re-
emphasized that the sole formal difference between the PK+
and PK- trials is the specified intention of the operator to in-
fluence the device to generate numbers in the assigned direction.
No other variation in protocol is permitted, save those subjec-
tive differences in psychological attitude the operator chooses
· to invoke. Although no records of such aspects were kept,
ed no special talent for this or any
other psychic task, reported that any conscious variations in
psychological strategy, such as focus of visual attention, or
intensity of concentration or desire, did not appear to have
any evident effect on the yield. Similarly, differences in the
laboratory ambience, such as the lighting level, background
noise, or peripheral presence of other persons, did not seem
to influence this operator's performance. When queried about
any impressionistic sense of the interaction process. the opera-
tor alluded to a "resonance or identification with the system.
leading to a loss of self-awareness similar to that experienced
in a game, a movie, or some creative occupation." Clearly this
class of parameter will be the most difficult to specify and cor-
relate, and we are far from any definition of its mechanisms.
With respect to experimental options on the equipment pa-
rameters, we can make very limited explorations with the
acquired data base. Briefly, binary correlations of the data for
the 100/1000 counting rate option, for the volitional/instructed
direction of effort, and for automatic/manual sampling give
little indication of importance of such factors in the overall
performance. Each category shows clear and significant separa-
tion of the means for the PK+ and PK" efforts, with little to
choose between the r-scores for the various categories. Thus.
at least for the data base at hand, the process seems insensitive
to these particular experimental parameters.
We have also attempted correlation in terms of the trial-
number sequence. With cognizance of the ubiquitous "de-
cline effect" which is reported over a broad range of psychic
experimentation, we have prepared an algorithm which cross-
concatenates from the data base all scores achieved on the
first trials of the experimental run, all achieved on the second
trials, etc., up to the fiftieth, and arrays those fifty means in a
graphical form. The results show little systematic profile of
yield versus trial number. A similar exercise has been per-
formed to cross-concatenate the data by run-number over the
various series to search for a decline effect on that larger scale,
but again no significant correlation is found within this data
base.
The most extensive parametric exploration attempted to date
was motivated by the apparently fundamental question implicit
in general conclusion 2) above, i.e., whether the magnitude of
the observed effect correlates with the total number of bits
processed, or with the number of trials. To explore this aspect,
the same operator has performed a second ensemble of experi-
mental series totaling 25 000 trials, all consisting of 2000-sam-
ple bits rather than 200. As before, various combinations of
the automatic/manual and volitional/instructed modes were
employed, but to speed data acquisition and reduce the opera-
tor's tedium, only the 1000/s counting rate was used. This,
coupled with the more elegant data processing capabilities that
had evolved over the preceding experiments, allowed this
sequence to be completed in less than six months.
The results of this effort, as presented in Table II and Figs.
17 and 18, are curiously ambivalent. As before, there is clear
and significant separation of the means of the PK+ and PK"
efforts, and the baseline is well behaved. As could be antici-
pated from the larger standard deviation of the 2000-bit data,
the cumulative traces display larger statistical fluctuations and
require a larger number of trials to settle toward well-defined
terminal values. To the quantitative precision allowed by this
data base, these terminal values appear not to endorse any
simple bit-level hypothesis in that they fail by a factor of 6 or
7 to achieve the one or one and one-half bits per thousand
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TABLE II
SUMMARY OF REG 2000-SAMPLE DATA
1
Instr.
No.
Trials
Mein
Std.
·Dev.
t-score
Pt
n+/n_
B.L.
12 500
1000.016
21.879
0.079
0.468
6157/6088
PK +
12 200
1000.380
21.906
1.914
0.028
6092/5897
PK-
12 800
999.569
22.005
-2.216
0.013
6218/6351
Δ ΡΚ
25 000
-
2.920
0.002
7500
PK *
CUMULATIVE DEVIATION
3750
p* *. 05
0
BASELINE
~Pī :. 05
- 3750-
PK
- 7500
2000
4000
6000
8000 10000 12000 14000
NUMBER OF TRIALS
Fig. 17. REG cumulative deviations of PK + and PK " 2000-sample data.
inversion accomplished in the 200-bit trials. However, the
new values are larger on a per-trial basis by a factor of about
1.7, which is not negligible in this context. Again, much more
data of this sort will be required to come to grips with this class
of correlation.
In addition to continuing study of this sample-size parameter,
our next generation of experiments employs a number of other
operators to explore the variation of yield with operator type
and technique, and a number of alternate noise sources, includ-
ing pseudo-random sources, in an attempt tolocalize the effect
somewhat and thereby to narrow the range of future experi-
ments and models.
The results outlined above are by no means the only conse-
quential REG data available for contemplation. Oi particular
interest are a variety of experiments reported by Schmidt,
some employing pseudo-random as well as physically random
sources, and others using taped source outputs recorded well
in advance of their presentation to the operator [87]-[90].
In another approach, May has recently reported an REG study
using electronic gear specifically designed to preclude very
subtle artifacts that might confound the effects of interest,
and includes in his paper a thorough search of the modern
REG literature [91].
In addition, considerable research in the parapsychological
community has been performed using REG devices as drivers
for various forced-choice video games employed in both the
PK and clairvoyance modes [151]. Many of these claim sig-
nificant yields, but rarely are the data-bases sufficiently large
to present quantitative trends, or to allow much parameteric
correlation.
Regardless of their particular implementation, any potential
vulnerability of random electronic noise sources to incidental
or intentional distortion by the means under study here would
seem to be of some interest to a number of engineering com-
munities, given the proliferate application of such devices in
various functional and computational capacities.
REMOTE PERCEPTION
As a second example of contemporary psychic research that
has displayed some substantial yield and interlaboratory repli-
.. .
0.6
AVERAGE DEVIATION
0.3
PK+2000
CUMULATIVE
0
PK 200
- 0.3
PK 2000
-0.6
-0.9
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000 12000 14000
NUMBER OF TRIALS
Fig. 18. REG cumulative average deviations of PK+ and PK- 2000-
sample data compared to 200-sample data.
cability, we select a topic which has come to be called "remote
perception" or "remote viewing." The basic concept of this
process is far from new; in the early 16th century, Paracelsus
stated it unequivocally :
Man also possesses a power by which he may see his friends and
the circumstances by which they are surrounded, although such
persons may be a thousand miles away from him at that time [8] .
In its modern form, the experimental protocol requires a
"percipient" to describe, by free-response oral or written
narrative or drawing, a remote, unknown target location at
which is stationed an "agent," with whom there is no normal
sensory mode of communication during the course of the
experiment. The targets are usually selected by some prescribed
random process from a previously prepared pool of targets,
which is unknown to any of the active participants. The
quality of the perception is assessed by various impressionistic
or analytical judging methods described below.
Historically, this experiment has evolved from several genera-
tions of free-response clairvoyance and telepathy experiments,
which were found to have certain advantages over the more
traditional "forced-choice" ESP tasks, such as the Xener card
identifications of the early Rhine laboratory [34]-[37], in
displaying less tendency for percipient stagnation and "decline-
effects" over extended testing, and in maintaining some of the
spontaneity of anecdotal clairvoyance experiences. One of
the earliest detailed reports of such free-response studies appears
as a book by Upton Sinclair entitled Mental Radio, which
features an equivocal foreword by Albert Einstein [152].
More modern work of this class was performed at the Mai-
monides Medical Center by Ullman and Krippner in the 1960's,
and reported in their book Dream Telepathy [64]. From this
work emerged the so-called "ganzfeld" or sensory inhibition
perception studies of Honorton and many others which pro-
pounded the desirability of emotionally stimulating tasks to
which the subjects could relate in a personal and spontaneous
fashion [66], [67].
The contemporary version of the remote perception protocol
was introduced in a sequence of publications by Targ and Put-
hoff [94], [153]-[156], which prompted a substantial num-
ber of attempted replications [157]-[174], and considerable
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Fig. 19. Remote perception target: Picnic area, Feathered Pipe Ranch
near Helena, MT; 12:00 N MDT, Sept. 5, 1978.
Percipient transcript: Princeton, NJ; 8:30 A EDT, Sept. 5, 1978:
"Outdoors ... open landscape-large areas of trees-pines? inter-
spersed with open fields. Single road. High overcast, cool, breezy.
(Agent) in dark jacket talking to someone near road-possibly turn-
out area or picnic area. Assembly of stones-possibly pylon or marker
or wall. Large sign somewhere."
critical comment. The most extensive of the replications, con-
ducted by Dunne and Bisaha in the Chicago area over the period
.1976 to 1979, comprised 40 formal trials to which were applied
157 independent transcript judgings, 84 of which assigned first-
place rank to the proper targets [161], [162].
The type of data which can be acquired in such studies is
illustrated in the sequence of Figs. 19-22. In each case is
shown a photograph of a particular target, selected by some
random process, which was visited by an agent on the date
and time indicated. Below each figure is a portion of the cor-
responding percipient transcript, with the time and location of
the perception effort also noted. The examples shown are
drawn from a variety of experimental series conducted under
somewhat different protocols, but serve to display some of the
: characteristics which commonly appear in the more successful
efforts ::
1) The overall ambience of the scene is accurately perceived.
2) Certain details are accurately identified; others are mis-
construed or totally ignored.
3) A feature which is impressive to the agent is not necessarily
so to the percipient, and vice versa.
4) The composition of the scene may be distorted by errors
in scale, relative positions of key objects, or total right-
left inversions.
5) The aesthetic aspects, such as colors, general shapes, degree
of activity, noise level, climate, and other ambient features
tend to be more accurately perceived than more analytical
details such as number, size, or relative positions.
6) The perception is not necessarily centered on the defined
target, and may even provide accurate information on ad-
jacent areas external to the target, unnoticed by the agent.
7) The fidelity of the perception seems to be independent of
the remoteness of the target, up to distances of several
thousand miles.
8) The time of the perception effort need not coincide with
the time the agent is at the target. Perceptions obtained
several hours, or even days, prior to the agent's visit to the
target, or even prior to selection of the target, display at
least as high a yield as those performed in real time.
Fig. 20. Remote perception target: Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton,
NJ ; 2:15 P EDT, Aug. 28, 1980.
Percipient transcript: Princeton, NJ; 12:15 P EDT, Aug. 28, 1980:
"Some kind of courtyard, enclosed by buildings on two sides. Paths
or walks around periphery, a statue or monument of some kind in the
middle surrounded by grass. Could be a fountain; I have the feeling
of water. Trees or tall hedges on one side. Fairly quiet, but some
people walking around. Not sure of sound, the idea of a fountain sug-
gests sound of water but I'm not sure I really hear it or not."
The philosophical and practical implications of items 7 and 8
are clearly substantial. If the data are valid, the most parsimo-
nious explications would require access of the percipient's con-
sciousness to other portions of the space-time grid than that in
which it is currently immersed, or that it can reach by normal
processes of communication or memory. These same items
also seriously delimit the potential physical mechanisms for
such access.
Rigorous evaluation of the data from experiments such as
these is confounded by the psychological components of the
process, by the impressionistic nature of the information in-
volved, and by the inevitable subjective biases of all those par-
ticipating in the experiment. Doubtless the earliest and most
primitive assessments were informal a posteriori exchanges of
impressions about the target between agent and percipient
which, although possibly informative and stimulating to them,
lacked any quantitative basis and held little scientific credibility.
In a somewhat less vulnerable strategy invoked more recently,
the percipient, after completing his transcript, visited several
possible targets drawn from the pool and attempted toidentify
the one he perceived, or to rank-order each of them in terms
of conformity to his earlier perception. Statistical arguments
could then be applied to these ranks to estimate the likelihood
that information about the target had been acquired by means
other than chance [175]-[177].
In an attempt to separate the possible ESP functioning of the
percipient during the visitation and ranking process from his
original perception effort, the protocol subsequently evolved to
invoke independent judges who were provided copies of the
various transcripts and taken to the target sites to perform their
preferential rankings .. Even in this form, the technique has
been criticized for possible sensory cuing of the judges [178]
and has tended in turn to be replaced by a protocol wherein
the judges perform their ranking on the basis of photographs
of the targets, usually taken by the agent at the time of the
trial. In one such version, the judges, who have not been in-
volved in any earlier portion of the experiment, are asked to
compare a single percipient transcript with agent-generated
descriptions and photographs of a number of alternative targets,
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Fig. 21. Remote perception target: Rockefeller Chapel, Chicago, IL; 2:15 P CDT, June 10, 1977.
Percipient transcript: Mundelein College, Chicago, IL; 1:00 P CDT, June 10, 1977:
"I'm seeing a heavy wooden door with a black bolt on it rounded at the top in a dome fashion. I have a feeling of opening the doors and
looking in and it's dark inside. My feeling at the moment is that it's a building like a church. And I can see the pews. There is some light but
I feel basically a kind of darkness in there and a quietness. I'm seeing little turrets, very elaborate-looking little turrets, a whole series of them
like across the entire top of the building and there's a straight line and then up to a triangle. I have a definite image of an angel-type of statue,
marble, flowing robes. I see the door again and I see some stairs. I think it's very high. I'm getting some stained-glass windows that are arch
shape and they would look to be dark blue. Whatever the architecture of it the ornamentation on the building is quite elaborate and it looks
like there's a section on the top with the turrets and then below that there are some other kinds of designs but more linear designs.
"I again have a vision of the doors and then maybe a ledged area or an area of the building that protrudes with some kind of a design and
there maybe even be a couple of those before you get to the top part which is either triangular or rounded. There is filigree work, little filigree
turrets or something. And within the building there is a sort of a continuation of arches, but possibly they meet columns or something like
that, but whatever the decoration is where walls join or separations, it looks like it's arched."
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Fig. 22. Remote perception target: Danube River, Bratislava, Czecho-
slovakia; 3:00 P European Standard Time, Aug. 24, 1976.
Percipient transcript: Minoqua, WI; 8:30 A CDT, Aug. 23, 1976:
"I have the feeling that the agent is somewhere near water. I seem to
have the sensation of a very large expanse of water. There might be
boats. Several vertical lines, sort of like poles. They're narrow, not
heavy. Maybe lamp posts or flag poles. Some kind of circular shape.
It's round on its side, like a disc, it's like a round thing flat on the
ground, but it seems to have height as well. Maybe with poles. Could
possibly come to a point on top. Seeing vertical lines again. Seems to
be a strong impression, these vertical lines. Predominant colors seem
to be blue and green. Water again. Some very quick impression of a
fence, z low fence. The steps seem to go up to some kind of fence.
It's a dark fence and it's along like a walk sort of at the top of the
steps. The steps sort of lead up to like a path or walkway. Like a
boardwalk. And there's a fence along it. There's people walking
along it, and there's vertical lines along that walkway."
.
including the proper target, and to rate or rank-order them by
some prescribed criteria. Again, statistical assessment of the
significance of the rankings follows.
The bulk of the remote perception data reported in the litera-
ture has been evaluated by some form of these independent
judging processes, and displays sufficiently high yield to encour-
age further refinement of the protocol and analysis before
attempting categorical judgment on the validity and viability
of the phenomena. Beyond minor tightening of the target
selection, agent maneuver, and perception acquisition and re-
cording phases of the experiment, the major potential improve-
ments would still seem to pertain to the judging process, which
remains potentially vulnerable to subtle cues in the transcripts,
to vagaries in the judges' capability, to their subjective biases
toward the individual experiments and to the topic as a whole,
and to possible psychic input of their own [161], 162].
In an effort to improve the judging process further, our labora-
tory has explored the applications of various information theo-
retic methods to the quantification of the data, and an analytic
technique has been devised which is based on a limited binary
.alphabet of target/perception descriptors [179]. While less
sensitive to the Gestalt impressionism and symbolic represen-
tations which a human judge might capture, this method does
provide a rudimentary framework for evaluation of signal-to-
noise ratio in the information transfer, and an assessment
standardization less dependent on subjective interpretation.
In essence, the strategy is to replace impressionistic assessment
of the quality of a perception by the identification of specified
elements of information therein, after which a mechanical
scoring and ranking procedure takes over. In the hope of con -.
veying a bit more substantive flavor of the data acquired in
remote perception experiments and the processing thereof.
permit us to describe this analysis in a little detail.
The heart of the method is the establishment of a code, or
alphabet, of simple descriptive queries which may be addressed
to all targets and all perceptions, responses to which serve to
distinguish them and to permit quantification of the informa-
tion acquired in the perception process. In one version, these
"descriptors," thirty in number, are posed in binary form and
range over a spectrum from quite factual discriminations, e.g.,
whether the scene is indoors or outdoors, whether trees are
present, or whether there are automobiles, to much more im-
pressionistic aspects, such as whether the ambience is noisy or
quiet, confined or expansive, hectic or tranquil. The particular
ensemble of descriptors has evolved in part through personal
experience and intuition, and in part through trial-and-error
application to various pilot data. The goal has been a balanced
alphabet whose elements are a) relatively unambiguous; b) com-
monly perceived ty a broad selection of percipients; c) individu-
ally instructive in defining the scene; d) complementary to one
another; and e) sufficient in number to permit reasonable syn-
thesis of the scene, but not so numerous to burden the data
collection or computation excessively.
Given this descriptor alphabet, each target in the pool is then
represented in terms of 30 binary bits, corresponding to the ap-
propriate YES/NO responses to the queries. This encoding is
normally performed by the agent at the time of target visita-
tion, although reference may be made to the target selector's
judgment or to photographs of the target for verification.
Each perception is similarly rendered into a corresponding
sequence of binary digits, but only after the percipient has been
allowed to form a free-response impression of the target. Vari-
ous scoring recipes are then invoked for quantitative comparison
of the perceptions with the targets, using for computation the
UNIX operating system of a PDP 11/45 or VAX 750.
The simplest recipe merely counts the number of correct
responses to the 30 descriptors, i.e., the positive correlations
between the target and descriptor matrices. This does not nor-
mally provide a particularly accurate index of the quality of the
individual perceptions, since the a priori probabilities of the
various descriptors are widely different. For example, a given
pool may have more outdoor than indoor targets, and hence
a correct identification of an indoor context should be given
higher credit than identification of an outdoor context. To
facilitate such weighting, a step is included in the computational
program to provide the a priori probabilities of all descriptors
in the prevailing target pool, on the basis of which more elabo-
rate scoring recipes may be invoked.
Since the various targets have substantially different charac-
teristics and hence different capacities for achieved scores, a
variety of normalization procedures also have been developed,
using as denominators the total number of descriptors, the per-
fect score, i.e., the score that would be achieved for a given
target if all descriptors were identified correctly, and various
"chance" scores for the target, defined by some random or
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PRECOGNITIVE REMOTE PERCEPTION 24 X 24 "CHICAGO" SERIES
PROPER TARGET RANKS
Scoring Method a
Perception No.
A
B
C
D
E
Avg.
Avg./24
Human Judges
Mean Rank b
1
3/4
7
7
9
2
5.9
0.25
2.7/8 = 0.34
2
1/2
2
4
1
1
1.9
0.08
1.0/8 = 0.13
3
1
1
1
1
1
1.0
0.04
1.5/8 = 0.19
4
2/8
7/2
2/2
4/2
2/2
4.5
0.19
2.7/8 = 0.34
5
7/3
9
11
4
8
8.0
0.33
1.7/8 = 0.21
6
9/5
12/2
7/2
16/2
7/2
11.0
0.46
3.5/8 = 0.44
7
13/2
11
14
10
13
12.3
0.51
2.3/8 = 0.29
8
20/3
22
20
14
19
19.2
0.80
1.8/8 = 0.23
9
4/2
4
8
1
5
4.5
0.19
2.6/7 = 0.37
10
10/7
13
13
9
5
10.6
0.44
1.4/7 = 0.20
11
9/4
9
11
6
12
9.7
0.40
3.6/7 = 0.51
12
1/3
2
2
2
5
2.6
0.11
1.8/7 = 0.26
13
1/3
1
3
1
3
2.0
0.08
2.2/7 = 0.31
14
1
2
2
1
1
1.4
0.06
1.4/7 = 0.20
15
1/2
2
2
1
1
1.5
0.06
1.0/7 = 0.14
16
2
2
2
1
2
1.8
0.08
1.0/10 = 0.10
17
1/4
9
1
9
1
4.5
0.19
1.0/5 = 0.20
18
2/2
10
5
1
2
4.1
0.17
1.0/5 = 0.20
19
14/3
14
14
19
17
15.8
0.66
unjudged
20
7/6
11
11
8
10
9.9
0.41
5.0/6 = 0.83
21
1/2
2
3
4
1
2.3
0.10
2.0/6 = 0.33
22
5/6
7
12
2
7
7.1
0.30
3.0/6 = 0.50
23
16/4
23
11
15
9
15.1
0.63
3.0/6 = 0.50
24
3
3
4
3
4
3.4
0.14
2.0/6 = 0.33
Mean
6.73
7.75
7.13
5.96
5.79
6.67
0.28
0.31
a Computed rank/number of ties for that rank.
bAssigned rank/number of possible ranks.
1
arbitrary process of descriptor response. A "selective" scoring/
normalization process has also been applied which effectively
allows the percipient to reject any descriptor on which he feels
unqualified to comment. and thence to be scored only on the
reduced descriptor set.
The statistical significances of these various normalized per-
ception scores are assessed by a collective ranking process
reminiscent of the traditional human judging techniques, but
having the advantages that the ranking proceeds on a much
more standardized and analytical basis, and that many more
alternative targets can be ranked by the machine than by a
human judge. Specifically, the program scores each transcript
not only against its proper target, but against every other tar-
get in the pool, and then ranks these targets in order of descend-
ing score and specifies the rank of the match with the proper
target. This process is repeated for every scoring method, and
the results displayed in corresponding matrix arrays.
Table III displays typical results of these analytical ranking
procedures as applied to a group of 24 perceptions of 24 targets
in the Chicago area. Tabulated are the ranks of the proper tar-
gets compared with all other targets for each of the perception
efforts, as computed by five of the scoring methods we have
found to be most instructive, namely, A) number of correct
descriptors/total number of descriptors; B) weighted full de-
scriptor score/perfect score; C) weighted full descriptor score/
number of descriptors; D) weighted selective descriptor score/
perfect score; and E) weighted selective descriptor score/chance
score. Also included in the table are the mean ranks assigned by
independent human judges subjectively comparing these per-
ceptions with a much smaller number of alternative targets.
Although the bases of comparison are quite different, it
appears that in the majority of these cases the analytical and
impressionistic evaluations concur at least roughly in their
estimate of the quality of the perceptions, particularly for those
which consistently obtain low rank assignments. If the analyt-
ical computation is carried through using as target pool only
those alternative targets available to the human judges, the
agreement in mean ranks is found to be somewhat closer, per-
haps fortuitously so, given the categorically different bases of
assessment implicit in the two methods.
To this analytically scored and ranked data it is possible to
apply a variety of statistical assessments of widely ranging
sophistication and complexity. Consistent with the rather
broad mesh of the descriptor code and the elementary scoring
recipes invoked in this version of the concept, we confine our-
selves to correspondingly simple statistical measures which
provide at least semi-quantitative indication of the yield beyond
chance. Specifically, we address only the distribution of proper
target ranks achieved in the series of perceptions, such as sum-
marized in columns 2-6 of Table III. Using the common z-
score method for a discrete distribution, the probability of
achieving the mean rank of any of these columns by chance
may be directly computed. Table IV displays the results of
such calculation for the same 24 X 24 "Chicago" series. Note
that, whereas all of the methods suggest significant departures
of the computed mean ranks from chance, there is relatively
little disparity among them, indicating that the specific method
of scoring and normalization is not a sensitive element in the
overall evaluation of the perception series.
The departure of the shape of the proper target rank distribu-
tion from chance is also displayed in Table IV in terms of the
number of perceptions achieving first-place ranks, the number
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TABLE IV
PRECOGNITIVE REMOTE PERCEPTION 24 X 24 "CHICAGO" SERIES
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Method a
Mean
Rank
No. 1st (2nd)
Ranks
No. Ranks
Below Mean
Z
Pz
×2(4)
Px
Chance
expectation
12.5
1.0 (1.0)
12
A
6.73
4.4
(4.0)
19
-4.08
2 × 10-5
18.5
<0.005
B
7.75
2.0
(6.0)
20
-3.36
4 × 10-4
11.8
<0.01
C
7.13
2.0 (4.5)
20
-3.80
7 × 10-5
19.6
<0.001
D
5.96
8.0
(2.0)
20
-4.63
2 × 10-6
24.0
<0.001
E
5.79
6.0
(3.5)
21
-4.75
1 × 10-6
27.6
<0.001
8 As described in text:
A) Number of correct descriptors/total number of descriptors.
B) Weighted full descriptor score/perfect score.
C) Weighted full descriptor score/number of descriptors.
D) Weighted selective descriptor score/perfect score.
E) Weighted selective descriptor score/chance score.
TABLE V
PRECOGNITIVE REMOTE PERCEPTION 6 X 24 "OCEAN" SERIES
SCORE SUMMARY
Methodª
Mean
Rank
No. 1st (2nd)
Ranks
No. Ranks
Below Mean
Z
Pz
Chance
expectation
12.5
0.25
(0.25)
3
A
4.5
1.0
(1.1)
6
-2.83
0.002
B
4.2
2.0
(0.0)
6
- 2.95
0.002
C
5.0
1.0
(1.0)
6
-2.65
0.004
D
5.2
1.0
(0.5)
6
- 2.59
0.005
E
5.3
1.0
(1.0)
6
-2.54
0.006
ªAs described in text:
A) Number of correct descriptors/total number of descriptors.
B) Weighted full descriptor score/perfect score.
C) Weighted full descriptor score/number of descriptors.
D) Weighted selective descriptor score/perfect score.
E) Weighted selective descriptor score/chance score.
ranked better than the chance mean, and a simple X2 test with
its associated probability.
The method is not restricted to square arrays, i.e., to equal
numbers of targets and perceptions in one-to-one correspon-
dence. Table V displays the results of a recent "Ocean" series
in which six perceptions were ranked against 24 targets in the
pool from which the six actual targets were drawn. (The per-
cipient for this series was at the time sailing alone across the
North Atlantic Ocean.)
Because of its particularly severe protocol, we also include as
illustration the results of a "European" series judged by this
method. In this series, the agent was traveling in eastern
Europe, and on five successive days, at 3:00 P.M. local time,
utilized whatever location he happened to occupy as the target.
The perceptions of these targets were recorded by a single
percipient in northern Wisconsin at approximately 8:30 A.M.
local time of the preceding day, i.e., each perception was
roughly 24 h precognitive. (Fig. 22 depicts a target and percep-
tion from this series.) Table VI displays the analytically judged
results of this series, and compares them with the results of
previous human judging. Although the data base is small, the
consistency of yield is striking.
To obviate the possibility that this method of analysis may
somehow process even random inputs to apparently significant
scores, artificial target data matrices and artificial perception
data matrices have been constructed from the output of
REG, and the computational schemes applied to various co :
binations of these with each other and with true data. The
pattern of results conforms to chance expectations.
An
alternative form of control is provided by application of t _:
method to discernibly unsuccessful test series, which yie'"
appropriately insignificant results.
The project outlined in the last few paragraphs is described
in greater detail, with many other experimental examp'
both successful and unsuccessful, in reference [179]. We have
since developed the capability of employing ternary rather
than binary responses to the descriptors, in order to con_y
more shaded information about the aspects queried. A gi r
feature may thereby be specified as a) present and dominant
b) present but secondary; or c) absent. Or alternatively, the
feature may be described as a) definitely present; b) ambigu 1:
or unspecified; for c) definitely absent. While these approare
clearly provide more specific target and perception data, th
scoring thereof becomes more complex, especially in the defini
tion of certain of the normalization denominators.
We have also been exploring a modification of this analy ....
judging procedure which would bypass the ranking steps altc
gether and move directly to compute individual statistical sc-e
for each transcript. The key to this variation is the defini )
and utilization of a generalized target pool composed of ove
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TABLE VI
PRECOGNITIVE REMOTE PERCEPTION 5 X 5 "EUROPEAN" SERIES
SCORE SUMMARY
Methoda
Mean
Rank
No. 1st (2nd)
Ranks
No. Ranks
Below Mean
Z
Pz
Chance
expectation
3.0
1.0 (1.0)
3
A
1.2
4.3 (0.3)
5
- 2.85
0.002
B
1.4
4.0
(0.0)
5
-2.53
0.006
C
1.4
3.0
(2.0)
5
-2.53
0.005
D
1.8
4.0
(0.0)
4
- 1.90
0.029
E
1.6
3.0
(1.0)
5
-2.21
0.013
Seven human
judges (avg.)
1.9
2.1 (1.6)
4.6
a As described in text:
A) Number of correct descriptors/total number of descriptors.
B) Weighted full descriptor score/perfect score.
C) Weighted full descriptor score/number of descriptors.
D) Weighted selective descriptor score/perfect score.
E) Weighted selective descriptor score/chance score.
200 targets, local, national, and international, assembled for a
broad range of earlier and ongoing experimental series, from
which correspondingly generalized a priori descriptor proba-
bilities may be calculated. Evaluation of the transcript scores
on the basis of these generalized probabilities, rather than
those calculated for the specific series target pools, has been
found to alter only slightly the relative ranks of the perceptions
determined by any of the five methods used above and provides
the desired common basis for evaluating the individual statis-
tical significance of those scores.
To pursue this, the program next assembles a set of empirical
chance distribution functions, one for each scoring method, by
concatenating all mismatched perception scores assigned by
that method, i.e., all off-diagonal elements of that perception-
target matrix. With reference to Gaussian fits to these empiri-
cal chance distributions, the proper perception-target scores
can then be assigned z-values and corresponding probabilities
against "chance." As one example of this approach, Fig. 23
shows the empirical distribution of scores compounded from
some 1400 mismatched targets and transcripts by method E,
on which are superimposed the scores achieved by the 24 proper
target perceptions of the "Chicago" series. The corresponding
z-values and probabilities against chance are listed in Table VII.
These individual significance values can subsequently be com-
pounded into an overall significance level for the entire series
by various standard procedures [180]. The latter result should
agree with that derived from the original ranking method, to
the order of approximation implicit in each form of this anal-
ysis. In this case, the series value is about 10-8, compared to
10-6 for the ranking method.
The specific results shown in Tables III-VII represent some of
the most successful data we have acquired; many less successful
examples could also be displayed. To summarize our total ex-
perience with over two hundred remote perception efforts, all
performed with volunteer percipients claiming no special abili-
ties, we might note that the data tend to fall into one of four
categories, in roughly comparable quantity:
1) the target is accurately represented in detail and composi-
tion;
2) particular features of the target are accurately perceived,
but the context is incorrect;
3) the ambience of the target is perceived, but the details
are inaccurate;
5
5
MISMATCHED
4
TARGETS
FITTED GAUSSIAN
O
MEAN = 1.0016
FREQUENCY
3
S.D. * 0.1163
2
0
1
0
PROPER
TARGETS
13
J
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
NORMALIZED SCORES
Fig. 23. Remote perception empirical chance distribution (metiod E).
4) the perception seems unrelated to the target in context
or detail.
Survey of the pertinent literature indicates a comparatie pat-
tern of yield across the experience of others involved ir. similar
experiments.
To date there has been little progress in correlating the degree
of success of such efforts with the prevailing experimental
conditions or with the personality traits or attitudes of the
participants. A certain body of lore has compounded from the
testimony of the more successful percipients, such as the desir-
ability of a personal rapport between the agent and peripient,
the value of a lighthearted attitude, the importance of exclud-
ing any associative or constructive logic, etc., but much of this
is still too vague and inconsistent to provide any basis for ex-
perimental refinement or theoretical modeling. At present,
the only fair statement would be that empirical evidence for
this class of phenomena continues to accumulate, bit with
frustrating irregularity and little basic comprehension. Not-
withstanding, the present and potential applications of the
process in a variety of arenas, combined with the relatively
simple and inexpensive nature of the experiment, keep this
type of study active.
THEORETICAL CONCEPTS
No remotely satisfactory physical theory of psychic phenom-
ena yet exists. Indeed, next to the evasiveness of the effects
under controlled experimentation, the second greatest frustra-
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PRECOGNITIVE REMOTE PERCEPTION INDIVIDUAL STATISTICAL SCORES
(METHOD E) 24 × 24 "CHICAGO" SERIES
Perception No.
z-score
Pz
1
1.210
0.113
2
0.089
0.465
3
2.737
0.003
4
1.700
0.045
5
-0.553
0.709
6
1.533
0.063
7
-0.315
0.623
8
-0.315
0.623
9
0.451
0.326
10
-0.197
0.578
11
0.191
0.424
12
2.037
0.021
13
2.948
0.002
14
2.244
0.012
15
2.661
0.004
16
2.478
0.007
17
2.180
0.017
18
1.904
0.028
19
0.083
0.467
20
-0.152
0.560
21
2.679
0.004
22
0.701
0.241
23
1.057
0.145
24
0.113
0.455
tion in the study of psychic processes has been the absence of
viable theoretical models with which to begin the traditional
dialogue between theory and experiment on which all scientific
progress eventually depends. This may, of course, be indicative
of an illegitimacy of the phenomena themselves, or at least of
an evanescence that fundamentally precludes any analytical
representation. On the other hand, it may be an indication
that modern physical theory, elaborate and sophisticated as it
is, has not yet evolved to a stage where it can properly acknowl-
edge and deal with the role of consciousness in the physical
world [181], and that this should be one of its new frontiers.
Before pouncing toward either extreme, it may be worthwhile
to play through some of the more canonical attempts that have
been made to deal with this domain, both from a formalistic
and philosophical point of view.
Efforts toward theoretical explication of psychic phenomena
over the past century have proceeded from various levels of
presumption as to the fundamentality of the effects observed.
Some have insisted that the effects are totally illusory, i.e., arti-
facts of poor experimentation or data processing, or that they
are the chance results of random processes. Others have assigned
the effects to known physical and physiological mechanisms
associated with, but not deliberately precipitated by the partic-
ipants, e.g., electromagnetic radiation from brain circuitry or
intercardial potentials, or heat transfer, vibration, or aerochem-
ical changes in the experimental environment caused by human
presence or exertion. More ambitious efforts have contended
that no such conservative models can suffice, and that it will
be necessary to identify new forms of energy or information
transfer to retain the established physical formalisms, or pos-
sibly even necessary to expand the physical laws themselves,
as was required in the generalization from classical mechanics
to quantum mechanics or to special and general relativity, with
the present forms becoming subsumed under more compre-
hensive statements. Still others have concluded that the scien-
tific paradigm in general is inadequate and that basic revision
in the representation of the process of conscious observatica
of physical events will be required.
Beyond the uncertainty as to the fundamentality of the
model required, these modeling efforts have labored under the
confusion of whether the purported phenomena are most basi-
cally psychological, physiological, physical, or some inextricable
combination thereof, and hence which class of concepts should
dominate the model and which should be secondary. Virtually
all permutations have been explored to some degree, under
labels of "psycho-physiological," "biophysical," "psych :-
physical," etc., but none of these can claim more than sugges-
tive analogies or philosophical stimulation. This author is
unqualified to assess any models based in the psychological
or physiological domains, other than to note that those most
frequently discussed tend to acknowledge the role of random
processes, information ordering, and statistical, rather than
directly causal mechanisms [182]-[187], all of which have
their counterparts in several of the more physically oriented
modes which have been proposed. Confining ourselves to such
physical theories, the history of credible analytic effort is cca-
veniently short and, in my view, more instructive in its philo-
sophical than in its functional characteristics.
Electromagnetic and Geophysical Models
For perhaps naive reasons, the earliest physical models tended
to presume wavelike propagation of psychic effects, usually in
the electromagnetic modes [188]. Doubtless the concurrent
emergence of radio technology with its revolutionary wireless
capabilities influenced the concepts and nomenclature of these
versions, and frequent reference to psychic "transmitters,"
"receivers," "antennas," "tuning," and "static" are found in
them. Upton Sinclair's book, Mental Radio, mentioned earlier,
is one example of such an analogy [152].
More modern models of this genre, appearing predominantly
in the Russian literature [43], [50], [100], [189], [190], have
focused on very low frequency bands, of the order of 10 Hz,
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characteristic of various physiological frequencies, especially
the brain wave spectra. Some variations of these have invoked
modulation of the earth's magnetic field or of the electrostatic
fields of the atmosphere. Wave models involving other than
electromagnetic environmental media have also been proposed,
such as infrasonic atmospheric waves, geoseismic waves, and
barometric fluctuations, possibly stimulated by contemporary
attention to the inexplicable homing capabilities of birds, fish,
and animals, and the hive or swarm behavior of certain insects
[101], [102], [132].
As suggested by the pre-occupation with screen-rooms in the
early days of the electromagnetic concept, and by more recent
long-distance remote perception experiments, some of the ob-
vious validation/disqualification tests examining attenuation,
diffraction, interference, and polarization effects have indeed
been attempted, but the very large dimensions involved for these
wavelengths leave the studies less than conclusive. Some con-
temporary workers retain support for this category of model,
claiming that the necessary electromagnetic signal levels re-
quired for influence on the brain circuitry are so small that no
coarse-grained tests can properly discriminate against them.
More problematic, in my own view, are the absence of any
demonstrated velocity of propagation of psychic effects and
the large body of precognition evidence which, if accepted,
cannot be accommodated by any reasonable advanced wave
characteristics.
However, setting aside for the moment the quantitative func-
tional difficulties with the electromagnetic approach to psychic
phenomena, certain broader philosophical analogies in the
conceptual and experimental aspects of the two topics may be
worth noting. In electromagnetism, beyond the bald empiricism
of the definition of the fields themselves as representations of
"action-at-a-distance," there are many features which to a
naive or primitive observer would, and indeed historically did,
appear as "paranormal," or at least anomalous: the noncolinear
aspects of Ampere's and Biot-Savart's laws and of the Faraday
effect; induction effects and switching transients; the Maxwell
displacement current; the propagation of waves in a vacuum,
with a specified finite velocity-each of these in some sense
digressed from contemporary "normal" experience, was con-
ceptually difficult in its time, and required certain leaps of
einpiricism to get on with the formalism.
To the extent that we just now hold a similarly naive and
primitive view of psychic phenomena, it may be necessary to
tolerate similarly empirical representations until a more com-
prehensive model can knit itself into a more fundamental
representation. For this purpose, there may be some merit in
looking to just such electromagnetic effects for analogies. As
one example, the pervasive "decline effect" in psychic experi-
mentation, wherein the performance on psychic tasks is widely
reported to be highest immediately after initiation, to decrease
over protracted testing periods, and then to improve again just
before termination, is somewhat reminiscent of the induced
signatures of certain electromagnetic processes. The decline
effect has been commonly ascribed to a psychological boredom
or reduction in the emotional intensity of the operator per-
forming the task; just possibly it may be a more fundamental
characteristic of the phenomenological domain.
In a similar vein, many psychic effects are reported to be in-
trinsically transient, e.g., the "fleeting impression"; the "sudden
vision"; the "unexpected effect." One of the favored techniques
of some remote perception percipients is to "sweep through"
their image of the target repeatedly until it is clarified. Many
PK effects are reported to be achieved just at the first effort
or immediately after the effort is terminated. Such "beginner's
luck" evidence might be construed to indicate that psychic
processes are invalidated by prolonged and careful examina-
tion; alternatively, it may be a hint that they are inherently
"inductive," in the electromagnetic sense, i.e, that they are in-
trinsically unsteady phenomena wherein the time derivatives
influence the magnitudes of the effects.
Yet another characteristic that psychic effects share with
certain electromagnetic processes is their tendency to be in-
direct, tangential, or peripheral: direct effort on one PK task
fails, but a secondary effect is noted on another component
or device; central elements of a remote perception target are
ignored by the percipient, but minor or peripheral aspects are
identified with precision; the pattern of physical disturbance in
a poltergeist event is reported to be vortical rather than radial,
all of which call to mind cross-product and vector curl effects
in the electromagnetic domain.
The point in suggesting such analogies is not to endorse direct
physical correspondence between electromagnetic and psychic
processes, but rather to speculate whether the human mind
may tend to perceive and assess phenomena in the two domains
in certain similar fundamental ways.
Entropy and the Random Process
A second, more recently opened class of psychic model
addresses the interaction of consciousness with natural random
processes [95], [187], [191]. A common aspect of the estab-
lished physical formalisms of kinetic theory, thermodynamics,
statistical mechanics, and information theory is the role of
randomicity as the reference plane for information and energy
exchange. By whatever representation, the second law of ther-
modynamics, expressing the tendency of isolated physical
systems to drive irreversibly toward configurations of mini-
mum order and information content, stands starkly asymmetric
in the time coordinate, thereby raising profound philosophical
issues in virtually every domain from biophysics to cosmology .**
Some of the most controlled and replicable experiments in PK,
such as the REG studies outlined earlier, could be construed to
challenge the second law, or at least to suggest modifications of
the concept of an isolated physical system. Namely, under
the circumstances of those experiments, human consciousness
could be postulated to be inserting order, albeit to a small
degree, into a random physical process ..
This possibility can be extended conceptually to the anoma-
lous acquisition of information in remote perception experi-
ments, to psychic healing, and to animal and plant PK, but to
my knowledge, no attempts at formulation have yet specified
any details of the ordering capability, e.g., its physical or phys-
iological source, its propagation modes, or its manner of inter-
action. Pending these, one can again only proceed with high
empiricism to attempt to represent the observed correlations
in a useful fashion, a strategy which has sustained many other
observational fields in their primitive phases. Notwithstanding,
this class of psychic model poses a profound question: The
long-accepted essence of consciousness is its ability to extract
information from its environment; may the reverse also be
possible? May consciousness have the ability to insert infor-
mation into its environment?
One extreme variation of this model escalates the question
even one step further, to ask whether it is possibly an indige-
nous property of extremely elaborate and complex systems
that they may embody inherent functional consciousness of
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their own-Approved For Release 2003/04/118x1CIA-RDR96-007895003199930001-we have come to perceive it,
interlockings of their systems, they derive not only abilities
to learn, to reproduce themselves, to adapt to their environ-
ment, but also to exert an entropy reversing form of "con-
sciousness" on themselves [192], [193].
Hyperspace Representations
A few attempts have been made to represent paranormal
effects by re-casting the basic laws of physics in more than the
four coordinates of normal human experience and applying the
consequent new terms to the representation of paranormal
effects [104], [105], [194]. For example, one such approach
adds an imaginary component to each of the spatial and tempo-
ral coordinates, i.e., invokes complex space and time, somewhat
in the spirit of ac circuit theory or exponential wave mechanics
[195]. The imaginary components and their "cross-talk" with
the traditional real ones thereby permit representation of anom-
alous effects within the framework of established physical laws.
To date, no convincing fundamental definition of these new
dimensions has been offered, thereby reducing such models to
an heuristic or empirical level. In this sense, the approach bears
some similarity to the "hidden variable" aspect of quantum
mechanics, mentioned below.
One may speculate that if such models are to address the in-
teraction of consciouness with physical process, the requisite
new coordinates or components must relate to, or in some way
define or localize, the processes of consciousness. In other
words, to the normal "hard" coordinates, whereby events are
conventionally specified in the physical world, it may be neces-
sary to add certain "soft" coordinates to specify the conscious
processes by which those events are perceived and possibly in-
fluenced. Clearly, the coordinate frame in which one chooses to
observe and represent any physical process is intimately linked
to the perception of that process. Two common examples
would be the perceptions of kinematic and dynamic effects in
a rotating frame of reference, such as a merry-go-round or an
orbiting spacecraft, or the even more bizarre appearances of
physical processes in rapidly accelerating frames, à la general
relativity.
To compound this interdependence of perception and refer-
ence-frame by including "consciousness coordinates" in the
specification of the latter is an awesome proposition, but an
intriguing one. And the consequences need not be restricted
to the mechanical behavior of physical systems, but may also
influence their perceived substance. The noted British astron-
omer Sir Arthur Eddington, some fifty years ago, presaged this
concept most boldly and heretically [196], [197], [203] :
The whole of those laws of nature. . . have their origin, not in
any special mechanisms of nature, but in the workings of the
mind ....
All through the physical world runs that unknown content
which must surely be the stuff of our consciousness. . . .
Where science has progressed the farthest, the mind has regained
from nature that which the mind has put into nature .. ..
We may look forward with undiminished enthusiasm to learning
in the coming years what lies in the atomic nucleus-even though
we suspect that it is hidden there by ourselves. . . .
The stuff of the world in mind-stuff. .
Transform Models
Another rather extreme approach proposed recently has come
to be referred to as the "holographic" or "transform" model
[198]-[200]. Essentially what is suggested here, as I under-
stand it, is that the information of the universe is arrayed, not
but rather as frequency and amplitude information, and that
the human consciousness essentially performs "Fourier trans-
forms" on this to order that information into the more familiar
form. In the sense that the space and time coordinates are
thereby downgraded from the fundamental coordinates of
experience to useful ordering parameters, one could interpret
such models to imply that consciousness may, by this mecha-
nism, access any portion of space and time to acquire informa-
tion, and then interpret it in some characteristic form.
The physicist David Bohm, in conjunction with the psychol-
ogist Karl Pribram, has elaborated such concepts to a consider-
able degree of generality, proposing a so-called "implicate
order" or "enfolded order" of fundamental reality from which
the more familiar "fexplicate order," i.e., the commonly mani-
fest perceptions are assembled in accordance with the prevail-
ing circumstances of their observation [20]], [202].
Quantum Mechanical Models
Probably the most exercised category of contemporary model
attempts to apply the concepts and formalisms of quantum me-
chanics to represent some of the paranormal effects presented
in the psychic domain. Of all the forms of physical analysis,
quantum mechanics invokes the largest array of empirical pos-
tulates that are at variance with conventional rationality, and
yields in their implementation a corresponding array of results
which contradict common impressions of reality. The quan-
tization process itself, which limits measurable properties to
discrete values; the representation of particulate systems by
wave functions; the role of observation in collapsing the wave
functions to a single state vector; the uncertainty principle;
the exclusion principle; the indistinguishability principle; and
most drastic of all, the commitment to totally probabilistic
mechanical behaviors-all, in some sense concede a degree of
paradox in human perception of physical processes. The famil-
iar conundrums of "Schrodinger's Cat," "Wigner's Friend," or ..
the "Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen Paradox," all suggest that the
laws of quantum mechanics are not so much statements of
fundamental physical reality, as of our ability to acquire in-
formation about that reality. Quantum mechanics, in other
words, does not so much describe the state of a physical sys-
tem as it describes our knowledge of the state of that system.
It is somewhat in this spirit that a number of authors have
aspired to model psychic process in quantum mechanical terms.
Some have attempted to invoke the so-called "hidden" or un-
used variables of the formalism to involve conscious process
more explicitly in the behavior of physical systems [107],
[204]-[208]. Others have endeavored to draw analogies
between the synaptic processes in the brain and quantum
mechanical "tunneling" [209].
Given the primitive state of the phenomenological data base,
much of this effort may be prematurely elaborate and complex.
Our own approach to quantum mechanical modeling has been
far more superficial and generic, attempting only to explore
possible analogies between the paradoxical consequences of the
formalism, and the paranormal evidence of certain psychic ex-
periments. Again with the indulgence of the reader, we might
sketch a bit of this argument, for the purpose of illustrating
this class of approach with the example closest to hand.
One conventional interpretation of the application of quan-
· tum mechanical formalism to the observable behavior of phys-
ical systems is to associate appropriate mathematical operators
with a corresponding measurement process. When applied to
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the prevailing wave function of the system, these operators call
out the observable values of the property in question as eigen-
values of an equation of the form
MVi= miVi
where M is the measurement operator, mi are the observable
values of the measured property, and wi the corresponding
eigenstates of the wave function. Our approach is to general-
ize this representation to include conscious systems as well as
conventional physical ones, and to allow the measurement
operator concept to include specification of psychological as
well as physical properties.
Thus, we denote a particular individual consciousness by a
"state function" Vi, and represent a situation to which it is
exposed by an operator S. Application of the situation opera-
tor to the consciousness wave function then yields the possible .
psychological responses, si, as eigenvalues:
SVi= siVi.
We then invoke certain aspects of quantum mechanical in-
teraction theory to develop the capacity for "paranormal" be-
havior of both physical and conscious systems. For example, in
the traditional theory of the covalent chemical bond between
two hydrogen atoms, one constructs from the separate atomic
functions, vª and v°, using arguments of symmetry and in-
distinguishability, a composite molecular wave function yab,
which yields expectation values for the molecular energy levels
substantially different from simple linear superposition of the
atomic energy eigenvalues, i.e ..
eqb =eq+e¡+Deqb
where ef and ep are the energy eigenvalues of the atomic
systems, and Aego embodies an "exchange energy" term
which is classically inexplicable, but devolves formally from
the postulate that the electrons are indistinguishable in the
bonded configuration. Stated more bluntly, surrendering in-
formation about the identity of the atomic electrons in the
molecular configuration leads directly to a significant and ob-
servable component of the binding energy, thus posing an
equivalence between information and energy far more stark
than that implicit in the second law of thermodynamics.
Using similar formalism, we may represent the state function
of two interacting individuals, or of an interacting individual
and physical system, by a composite state function vab whose
behavior characteristics also differ significantly from those of
the separated systems, i.e.,
sqb =sq+si +Asqb +Asia
where sf denotes the "normal" response of the first individual
to the prevailing situation, and si that of the second individual
or of the physical system, and Asab and Asd denote modifica-
tions of those behaviors arising because the two systems are
strongly interacting during the observed situation.
-.
As a specific example, to apply this approach to remote per-
ception experiments we could denote the percipient by UP, the
agent by vª, and the experimental protocol by the mathemati-
cal operator P. In the absence of interaction between the per-
cipient and agent, each would have certain "normal" reactions
to the experimental situation, p?, pa, derived from the eigen-
value relations:
PVP=pPUP
i.e., the percipient would perceive nothing about the target
that was not accessible to his normal perceptual modes, and the
agent would react to the target under no influence from the
percipient.
However, if the percipient and agent are strongly enough
interacting to require a new "molecular" wave function, y Pa,
"paranormal" terms will appear in their response patterns:
plª =pl + p? + Appª + App
where in Apfª we may accommodate the anomalous acquisi-
tion of information about the target, and in ApUP the com-
monly reported experience of the agent of having his attention
attracted to specific details he would "normally" have ignored.
Application of this formalism to a PK experiment proceeds
in a similar fashion. Here we might represent the experimental
operator (person) by v°, and the experimental device by vd.
Again the experimental protocol is represented by a mathe-
matical operator, K. In the absence of major interaction, the
device behaves "normally":
Kvq = kiųq
and the operator has the "normal" psychological experiences:
But if the operator and the device are in some state of reso-
nance, ydo, each behaves somewhat differently, i.e.,
κλο = k7 + k? + Δε 0 + Δκρά.
The anomalous modification in the behavior of the system
Akao is termed PK; Akiª accomodates any paranormal psy-
chological reactions of the operato :.
Development of further illustrations of this general method
here would be inappropriate and would require more detailed 2.
specification of the nature of the consciousness wave functions,
their functional form, their proper "soft" coordinates, and the
interpretation of their quantum numbers. Some of this has
been attempted, along with various other applications to the
psychic domain, and is available in a reference [210]. The
point of exposition here is largely a philosophical one: namely,
the "paranormal" effects emerge as a consequence of the com-
parison of the behavior of an interacting system with that of
its separated components.
Quantum mechanics may have quite another analytical
precedent to contribute to the representation of psychic
phenomenology. Clearly, much of the psychic research data
will continue to be acquired and processed in statistical form,
using established statistical methods. Yet, all statistical models
ultimately trace back to certain fundamental probability rules
for the elemental systems involved. For the statistical models
to be viable, these probability rules must a) exist; b) be known;
and c) be analytically tractable. At present, virtually all pro-
cessing of psychic research data presumes the applicability of
classical statistics, yet the basic probability rules for the ele-
mental processes are, in point of fact, unknown [211], [212].
It may fortuitously be the case that much of psychic process
can be adequately treated as marginal deviation from classical
chance behavior. In some cases, however, it may be necessary
to invoke categorically different statistics, tracing back to funda-
mentally different probability rules, to deal with the effects.
The quantum mechanical precedents of relevance, of course, are
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the two systems of quantum statistics, i.e., the Fermi-Dirac
and Bose-Einstein systems, which are based upon the phase-
space population rules for half-integer and integer spin particles
as imposed by the Pauli principle, i.e., the wave function sym-
metry requirements. For most common physical systems, these
quantum statistics conveniently degenerate into the classical
form, but for certain special situations, e.g., the specific heats
of metals and certain radiation properties, their full applica-
tion is essential.
By analogy, one could postulate that physical reality, as per-
ceived and influenced by human consciousness, actually plays
by more elaborate probability rules than commonly attributed
to it, and hence strictly requires a more complex statistical
mechanics. Thus, in this view, the processes commonly regarded
as "normal" would be those for which the "classical" approxi-
mation to this more complex system is adequate; small-scale
psychic effects would then comprise those displays of minor
deviations of the complex statistics from the "classical" limit;
the more drastic phenomena-poltergeists, levitations, metal
bending, etc .- would presumably become explicable only in
terms of the full statistical formulation.
Holistic Models
Yet more extreme in conceptual difficulty is a body of con-
tention that psychic processes are inseparably holistic, and that
" no model rooted in any sector of established science can ad-
equately represent them [213]. In particular, the suggestion
is offered that psychic processes are manifestations of the inter-
diffusion of the analytical, scientific world with the creative
aesthetic world, and thus to represent them effectively it will
be necessary to combine the philosophical perspectives and
techniques of both domains. To resort to metaphor for illus-
tration once again, one could ponder such analogies from the
common physical world as the interface regions between the
sea and land, where the diffuse patterns of the ocean wave
structure meet the solid promontories and sloping beaches of
the coast to produce the crashing breakers and hissing foam of
seashore phenomena, or the overrunning of a warm, moist
: atmosphere by a cold-front of drier, cooler air to initiate the
striking electrical and acoustical phenomena of the summer
thunderstorm.
By whatever analogy it may be illustrated, theoretical repre-
sentation of the interpenetration of causal physical mechanics
with creative conscious process must be a formidable under-
taking, yet not totally without precedent or allied effort. For
examples, interest is just now growing in the humanistic psy-
chology community in the analytical study of human creativity
[214]-[216], and, on the other side of the interface, a few
physicists are beginning to muse openly about the role of
aesthetics in subnuclear and cosmological physical behavior
[217]-[220]. In yet a different arena, certain futurists are
now examining the interplay of aesthetic and functional hu-
man needs and values in the evolution of social and political
structure [221]. To be sure, none of these has produced much
in the way of analytical formalism, but the peculiarity, magni-
tude, and significance of the interpenetration effects are being
acknowledged.
Any summary assessment of the status of physical models of
psychic phenomena should properly begin with reiteration of
the opening statement: none of the approaches outlined above
· has yielded anything approaching a functional theoretical basis.
Yet, the ensemble of empirical experimental experience seems
to suggest that certain of the conceptual and perceptual char-
acteristics underlying, those formalisms may be relevant to
ultimate representation of such processes. Specifically, they
suggest that the following rather general hypotheses may be
worthy of more detailed examination:
1) The phenomena may be inherently statistical, rather than
directly causal, and we may be observing them "on the margin."
That is, the observed phenomena may represent marginal
changes from normal behavior on a very grand scale and with
fluctuation times which tax human observational capability. It
also may be necessary to deal with more complex statistical
mechanics, appropriate to more involved basic probability
rules, to represent the most drastic effects.
2) Just as human consciousness has the ability to extract in-
formation from an external system, e.g., by observing it, that
consciousness may also have the ability to project information
into it, e.g., by ordering random processes.
3) Quantum mechanics may be more than a system of physi-
cal mechanics; it may be a more fundamental representation of
human consciousness and perception processes, and the empiri-
cal pillars of this formalism, such as the uncertainty principle.
the exclusion principle, the indistinguishability principle, and
the wave/particle dualities may be as much laws of conscious-
ness as laws of physics.
4) Psychic processes may be inherently holistic, and thus
the ultimate model may need to integrate both the scientific
and the aesthetic aspects in order to identify the sources of
the phenomena. That is, psychic processes may be manifests.
tions of the intersection of the analytical, scientific world
with the creative, aesthetic world, and thus, to represent them
effectively, it may be necessary to integrate both perspectives
without sacrificing the integrity of either.
Clearly, any of these intuitions will have to be developed in
far more philosophical and analytical detail before a trenchant
theoretical model can emerge, but at this primitive stage it is
probably stimulating to consider a few such radical possibilities,
along with more prosaic explications. Changes of this magni-
tude in representation of human perceptual reality inevitably,
and properly, would be attended by much philosophical re-
calcitrance and agony, but the broader personal and collective
insights that could derive from legitimate efforts to bridge the
analytical/aesthetic interface could be of at least corresponding
benefit.
THE NEGATIVE SIDE
Contemporary criticism of psychic research and rejection of
the phenomena it purports to demonstrate tend to focus on a
number of specific objections, each of which has some degree
of validity and merits some thought in any balanced assess-
ment of the topic [118], [178], [222]-[224]. The most
commonly cited concerns include:
1) demonstrable fraud;
2) naivete of technique, including inadequate controls,
faulty equipment, sensory cuing of participants, other
experimenter biases, selective treatment of data, im-
proper statistical methods, and general experimental
and theoretical incompetence;
3) little improvement in comprehension over many years
of study;
4) absence of adequate theoretical models;
5) suppression of negative results;
6) poor experimental replicability;
7) elusiveness of effects under close scrutiny;
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8) sensitivity of results to participants, attitudes, and labora-
tory ambience;
9) tendency for many results to be only marginally signif-
icant compared to chance expectation;
10) inconsistency with prevailing "scientific world view;"
.
11) contradictory to personal psychology, philosophy,
theology, or "common sense."
Obviously this list runs a gamut from rather technical and pro-
cedural objections, through phenomenological inconsistencies,
to rather categorical and subjective rejections, and only a few
of these issues can be constructively addressed here.
Unfortunately, but undeniably, one or the other of the first
two judgments may legitimately be applied to a large body of
the propounded results. By its nature, the field is immensely
vulnerable to fraudulent exploitation and naive gullibility, and
such have indeed occurred to a distressing degree. It is also
true that the topic has attracted a disproportionate share of less
than fully competent researchers, and that it presents extra-
ordinary pitfalls for even the most disciplined scholars. Yet
despite the substantial validity of these claims, and the suspicion
they inevitably cast on all other results, it does not seem that
they should predicate categorical rejection of the entire field.
Rather, the vulnerable cases should be patiently ferreted out
using obvious scholarly criteria, and only those efforts surviving
such scrutiny used for scientific insight and judgment.
The lack of definitive progress toward comprehension of the
phenomena and the absence of viable theoretical models have
already been acknowledged in the foregoing text, and although
these assessments should perhaps be qualified by the relatively
minute integrated investment of resources made in this field in
comparison to many of the more favored areas of science, they
nonetheless constitute legitimate concerns about the ultimate
tractability of the field. It should perhaps also be noted that,
despite the prolonged effort, it is only very recently that more
sensitive and powerful experimental equipment and data pro-
cessing techniques have been brought to bear, and equally re-
cently that more sophisticated physical formalisms have been
invoked, and that these have had a much briefer opportunity
to render the phenomena into comprehensible terms.
The subsequent five objections, 5)-9), are more specific and
substantive, and merit examination from two orthogonal points
of view. Namely, to what extent do such characteristics indeed
invalidate the results, and conversely, to what extent might they
illuminate the basic nature of the phenomena? With respect to
suppression of unfavorable results, there has undoubtedly been
some tendency in this field, as in most others, to advance posi-
tive or definitive findings more enthusiastically than negative
or equivocal ones. Indeed, this paper has been guilty of the
same bias. In an effort to provide concise representation of
the style and substance of psychic research and of the nature
of the effects it can produce, we have tended to invoke as illus-
trations some of the more successful and familiar pieces of
work without balancing the presentation with comparable ex-
amples of the negative or equivocal results that are regularly
acquired in these efforts.
To the credit of the psychic research community, it has offi-
cially encouraged thorough and objective reporting of negative
data, and much of these indeed appear regularly in its established
journals [225]-[228], with a number of consequent benefits.
First, beyond adding credibility to the body of positive results,
such data compound to provide some quantitative index of the
ratio of positive to negative
thereby contributing to a broader sense of the grand statistics
of the phenomena. In addition, documentation of the specific .
conditions prevailing in unsuccessful experiments may be help-
ful in excluding irrelevant parameters from further considera-
tion, and in identifying and reducing counterproductive influ-
ences. Perhaps most pointedly, however, the body of negative
and equivocal data emphasize that psychic phenomena, if real,
are highly irregular and sensitive to intangible influences well
beyond current scientific control, and, if their study is to be
pursued, this caveat must be accepted ab initio, at least for the
present.
A similar interpretation also applies to the irreplicability
complaint, and to the three following it. Without question,
the dominant experimental frustration in this field is the in-
ability to replicate on demand previously observed paranormal
effects, not only at other laboratories, but even in the original
facility, using the original participants, under apparently identi-
cal experimental circumstances [172], [173], [229]-[231].
This ubiquitous characteristic has precipitated major philosoph-
ical excursions which are well beyond our capacity to review
here. Only briefly, four possible categorical interpretations
have been advocated:
a) The phenomena are illusory.
b) The phenomena are rare and bizarre chance occurrences,
beyond any hope of regularization.
c) The phenomena are precipitated, at least in part, by psy-
chological and/or physiological factors which are presently
beyond experimental control, but which if fully compre-
hended would conform to established scientific paradigm.
d) The phenomena are inherently statistical, and possibly
quantum mechanical, on a macroscopic scale, thus mani-
festing themselves with finite but fractional probability
on any given occasion.
" The latter pair of options are not necessarily mutually exclu-
sive, particularly if one takes a rather generous doubly statistical
point of view, namely that the human population embodies a ".
range of capability for engendering such effects and that beyond
that, any individual may display a variable range of personal ca-
pacity, depending on a variety of environmental, physiological,
and psychological factors prevailing at the time.
The evasiveness of the phenomena under carefully controlled
and observed study may be the most damning criticism of all,
or it may also constitute a valid and illuminating phenomeno-
logical characteristic. The tendency of a given preliminary or
anecdotal effect to disappear or diminish when the experiment
is tightened, or when it is displayed to a skeptical jury of ob-
servers, obviously casts major doubt on the scientific integrity
of the process. Yet it also brings to mind at least two other pro-
cesses which, while superficially dissimilar, may not be totally
irrelevant, namely artistic creativity, and quantum mechanical
measurement as limited by the uncertainty principle. In the
former, there should be little quarrel that the creative processes
of artistic, musical, or literary composition, or of lofty philo-
sophical thought in general, are not usually facilitated by rigid
constraints or by the presence of a body of unsympathetic
observers. The importance of favorable ambience and mood
for such efforts is intuitively and demonstrably clear, and little
creative achievement is likely to occur in overly sterile or hostile
environments, a truth Richard Wagner vividly conveyed to his
own critics by his portrayal of the fate of young Walther at-
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Meistersingers. Virtually every creative artist preserves some
form of retreat or sanctuary, and even the most rigorous of
scientists will concede the role of unstructured mental imagery
in enhancing their technical insights.
The analogy of the quantum mechanical measurement process
is somewhat more strained, in that it requires generalization of
the concept to the macroscopic level of information or energy
exchange between two persons or between a person and a
physical system. The point will not be developed here, other
than to note that if there is any validity to the application of
quantum mechanical logic to this class and scale of intellectual/
intuitive process, as discussed earlier and in the references,
some form of "uncertainty principle" could predicate a limit
to the precision with which psychic effects could be observed.
More specifically, if the "hard" and "soft" coordinates of repre-
sentation are canonically conjugate, some form of Aq Ap~h
rule may apply, so that attempts at excessive precision in speci-
fication of a psychic effect could dissipate its cause, and vice-
versa [210].
The final two reservations regarding inconsistency of the phe-
nomena with established scientific and personal views, while
constituting powerful professional and personal discriminators
and properly predicating great caution and discipline in ventur-
ing into any anomalous field, also cannot be allowed total veto
authority if new domains of conceptual experience are ever to
*be challenged. In responding to a critic of an earlier paper who
stood on these points I wrote, perhaps too floridly,
Authoritarianism such as this encourages established knowledge
to sit smugly on its duff and categorically reject all new evidence
that does not support or fill in its contemporary "world-view
compatability criterion"-whatever that is. Worst of all, it stifles
the most precious attribute of human consciousness, the yearning
for ever new, ever higher wisdom that has driven the mind and
spirit of man to evolve upward, rather than merely to replicate
[232].
More persuasive to this issue, however, would be a simple histor-
ical count of the number of leaps of scientific insight, from
Aristotle to this day, which would have been, and in most
cases were, for a time, rejected on the basis of these criteria.
Curiously, it has often been those giants of science who with
soaring insight and courage of conviction violated such tenets
to lead their fields to new plateaus of understanding, who also,
in a later day, led the recalcitrance of the establishment against
comparably sacrilegious visions of their successors, while still
endorsing in general terms the importance of visionary thought.
Galileo, early champion of scientific methodology and revolu-
tionary concepts in terrestrial and celestial mechanics against
vicious dogmatic opposition, rejected Kepler's elliptical orbits
as "occult fantasy"; Thomas Young, whose brilliant interference
experiments finally established the wave character of light,
contended with Fresnel's theoretical formulations of the same
processes; Ernst Mach disputed relativity and atomic theory;
Rutherford, who showed the world the nuclear atom, dismissed
any practical significance for nuclear energy; Lavoisier and
Ostwald disputed atomic theories of chemistry; D'Alembert
opposed probability theory; Edison discounted alternating
current; Lindberg despaired of Goddard's rocketry; and Albert
Einstein retained an enduring uneasiness about quantum theory
despite his many contributions to its evolution [233]-[235].
Incidentally, the same Albert Einstein who would invoke the
- establishment criteria against Upton Sinclair's clairvoyance
... the results of the telepathic experiments carefully and
plainly set forth in this book stand surely far beyond those
which a nature investigator holds to be thinkable [152].
could in quite another tone testify eloquently to the impor-
tance of the aesthetic dimension in creative science:
The most beautiful and most profound emotion we can ex-
perience is the sensation of the mystical. It is the sower of all
true science. He to whom this emotion is a stranger, who can no
longer wonder and stand rapt in awe, is as good as dead. To know
that what is impenetrable to us really exists, manifesting itself as
the highest wisdom and the most radiant beauty which our dull
faculties can comprehend only in their most primitive forms-
this knowledge, this feeling is at the center of true religiousness.
The cosmic religious experience is the strongest and noblest
mainspring of scientific research [236].
Individually and collectively, these critical challenges to psy-
chic research raise valid concerns which merit deliberate atten-
tion and predicate great caution, and can also help to illuminate
some of the subtle phenomenological features. However, they
can perform these functions well only if they themselves are
informed, reasoned, and fair. Regrettably, from my reading of
the critical literature, this has not invariably been the case, and
instances of naiveté, selective representation of data and pro-
tocol, and excessive generalization also appear therein.
The role of the critic in psychic research is a most essential
one, perhaps more so than in any field of scholarship yet
broached. When the criticism is based in fact and experience
and is objective and fair, it can instill healthy discipline in the
study of this or any other difficult field and ensure that the
fundamental requisites of scientific methodology, e.g., dispas-
sionate rigor, humility in the face of observations, limitation
on extrapolation of results, and openness of mind will prevail
in the search. But it is equally essential that the process of
criticism play by these same rules. If it violates any of them,
if it lapses. into categorical rejection, guilt by association, or
sloppy logic, it can become as suspect as the object of its
complaint, and thus fail in its proper role [237] .
IMPLICATIONS
Despite their compounded length, the foregoing historical
outline, survey of contemporary activity, and selected ex-
amples of ongoing research and theoretical efforts are still far
from adequate to convey the full essence of this complex and
contradictory field. Fortunately an extensive body of refer-
ence literature exists, including a number of comprehensive
general volumes, whereby an interested reader may flesh out
this sketch and extend it to many aspects not broached here
[6], [44], [45], [56], [57], [92], [130], [238]-[242].
Hopefully, such more thorough study would tend to confirm
the general impressions of the status and prospects of the field
conveyed above. To restate these in summary, it appears that
once the illegitimate research and invalid criticism have been set
aside, the remaining accumulated evidence of psychic phenom-
ena comprises an array of experimental observations, obtained
under reasonable protocols in a variety of scholarly disciplines,
which compound to a philosophical dilemma. On the one hand,
effects inexplicable in terms of established scientific theory, yet
having numerous common characteristics, are frequently and
widely observed; on the other hand, these effects have so far
proven qualitatively and quantitatively irreplicable, in the strict
'scientific sense, and appear to be sensitive to a variety of psycho-
logical and environmental factors that are difficult to specify,
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let alone control. Under these circumstances, critical experi-
mentation has been tedious and frustrating at best, and theoret-
ical modeling still searches for vocabulary and concepts, well
short of any useful formalisms.
Given these difficulties, what then are the motivations, if any,
to proceed? As for most speculative topics, three potential
generic benefits could be considered:
a) acquisition of fundamental knowledge,
b) practical applications,
c) humanistic benefits.
In this particular field, basic knowledge might accrue in two
ways-the attainment of new scientific information in the usual
sense, and the broadening of scientific methodology to deal
more effectively with irregular phenomena of this type. In other
words, study of this topic not only might provide certain phe-
nomenological answers, but also might serve to broaden the
context in which science can formulate its questions. New
mechanisms for transfer of information or energy might be
identified, or broader understanding of those properties, and
how they are perceived and measured might emerge. The latter
half of the opportunity clearly is a major challenge to science,
but hardly a new one. William James posed it rather bluntly
some eighty-five years ago:
The spirit and principles of science are mere affairs of method;
there is nothing in them that need hinder science from dealing
successfully with a world in which personal forces are the starting
point of new effects. The only form of thing that we concretely
have is our own personal life. The only completed category of
our thinking, our professors of philosophy tell us, is the category
of personality, every other category being one of the abstract
elements of that. And this systematic denial on science's part of
personality as a condition of events, this rigorous belief that in its
own essential and innermost nature our world is a strictly im-
personal world, may, conceivably, as the whirligig of time goes
round, prove to be the very defect that our descendants will be
most surprised at in our boasted science, the omission that to
their eyes will most tend to make it look perspectiveless and
short [24].
The potential applications of psychic process are best con-
sidered with conservatism and restraint, especially given the
tendency of certain elements of the public media and private
exploiters to extrapolate the possibilities far beyond any dem-
onstrated accomplishments. Clearly, the process of remote
perception described earlier, along with other forms of clair-
voyance, could hold some potential interest for intelligence
agencies, law enforcement units, and any other activity relying
on surveillance, as well as for archaeological searches, natural
resource prospecting, and the like, and such operations have
indeed engaged in empirical efforts to evaluate the efficacy of
such strategies in their particular domains. From a strictly
engineering standpoint, however, the potential efficiency and
precision of such tactics are unclear, given their apparent ten-
dency to trade more effectively in impressionistic generalities
than in analytical detail.
Low-level PK effects, such as the REG distortions indicated
above, could have more pervasive implications for high technol-
ogy. If, for example, the basic functions of microelectronic
elements could be even slightly disturbed by intentional or in-
advertent intervention of human consciousness, it would seem
important to obtain some assessment of the potential magni-
tude of such effects, and of the factors favoring or inhibiting
such interference, before much more elaborate integrated cir-
cuit arrays, graphic display systems, and other sensitive man/
machine interfaces are committed to delicate or critical opera-
tions. To focus our assessment of such possibilities, we are now
examining PK disturbance of the memory function of a single
microelectronic chip [243]. If the indications that psychologi-
cal and environmental factors bear on the precipitation of such
effects are sustained, it may be necessary to expand considera-
tion of such parameters beyond the usual scope of human
factors engineering, especially in situations involving high psy-
chological stress.
The potential humanistic benefits of better comprehension
of psychic phenomena could be addressed on either a personal
or social level, but to do so in any detail would far exceed the
purview of this article. Again, extensive references on various
facets of the issue abound [244]-[252]. Ultimately, most of
these philosophical excursions arrive at the same monumental
question, namely whether convincing demonstration of the
capability of human consciouness to influence its reality to a
significant degree would substantially alter individual and col-
lective perception of the human state, its value system, and
its behavior pattern, and thereby facilitate its evolution to a
higher life form. Such projections have been offered from a
variety of perspectives. Engineer/futurist Willis Harman fore-
casts an "inner experience" paradigm:
Just as conventional science depends upon a prior consensus
on how knowledge of the sense-perceived world shall be publicly
tested and validated, so the complementary paradigm will have
to include consensus on how knowledge relating to the world
of inner experience shall be publicly tested and validated.
Its essential characteristic would be that consciouness and its
contents are primary data, rather than being secondary and de-
rivative as in the conventional paradigm. Where the conventional
paradigm involves reductionistic models the complementary para-
digm would add holistic models; where the first employs deter-
ministic (or stochastic) explanations of events the second would
add teleological, purpose-recognizing explanations; where the first
is little involved with matters of values and meaning, the second
finds these of central concern; where the first is dominated by
technology-focused values of prediction and control, the second
would tend to value understanding relating to human well-being,
development and evolution [221].
Biologist/immunologist Jonas Salk phrases it more in terms of
a resonance of human volition with natural processes:
Man has come to the threshold of a state of consciousness, re-
garding his nature and his relationship to the Cosmos, in terms that
reflect 'reality.' By using the processes of Nature as metaphor,
to describe the forces by which it operates upon and within Man,
we come as close to describing 'reality' as we can within the limits
of our comprehension. Men will be very uneven in their capacity
for such understanding, which, naturally, differs for different ages
and cultures, and develops and changes in the course of time. For
these reasons it will always be necessary to use metaphor and
myth to provide 'comprehensible' guides to living. In this way,
Man's imagination and intellect play vital roles in his survival and
evolution [249].
And philosopher/paleontologist Teilhard de Chardin states his
hope in terms of a collective consciousness of the human race:
Thus we find ourselves in the presence, in actual possession, of
the super-organism we have been seeking, of whose existence we
were intuitively aware. The collective mankind which the sociol-
ogists needed for the furtherance of their speculations and formu-
lations now appears scientifically defined, manifesting itself in its
proper time and place, like an object entirely new and yet awaited
in the sky of life. It remains for us to observe the world by the
light it sheds, which throws into astonishing relief the great en-
semble of everyday phenomena with which we have always lived,
without perceiving their reality, their immediacy or their vastness
[253].
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On a somewhat less lofty, but possibly more functional level
a recent Approved ForRelease20031946
CIA-RDP96-0
tives Science and Technology Committee, in a section encourag-
ing serious assessment of further research on "the physics of
consciousness," stated that recent experiments:
suggest that there exists an 'interconnectiveness' of the human
mind with other minds and with matter; . . . that the human mind
may be able to obtain the information independent of geography
and time
and later concluded that:
... a general recognition of the degree of interconnectiveness
of minds could have far-reaching social and political implications
for this nation and the world [254].
The details and tones of these visions clearly are matters of
individual heritage, experience, and intuition, but the messages
share a common theme: the next stage in human evolution may
involve expansion and interconnection of human consciousness,
features clearly central to the psychic concept.
Beyond the difficulty of the phenomena and potential bene-
fits of the knowledge, a more prosaic factor to be considered
in contemplating further psychic research is the requisite cost
of the effort. To date, such experimentation has been extra-
ordinarily inexpensive by usual scientific standards. The primi-
tive level of comprehension, the lack of organized interest within
the established scientific communities, and the Bohemian status
of many of the investigators have predicated projects of very
low budgets compounding to a total annual national investment
of the order of one million dollars or less [255]. Clearly, if
more incisive progress is to be attempted, some increase in the
sophistication and interaction of the principal programs must
be funded, but it is most unlikely, and for the time probably
undesirable, that this will consume any magnitude of resources
comparable with, or distractive from, the better established re-
search domains. A comparable statement could be made with
respect to commitments of the requisite scholarly personnel.
If on the basis of such cost/risk/benefit considerations a
modest ongoing program of research seems justified, it re-
mains to consider the selection of topics, experimental styles,
and evaluation criteria which would optimize the effort at this
stage. In addition to the obvious desiderata that the specific
experiments be clearly posed, conceptually simple, lend them-
. selves logistically to rigorous, tightly controlled protocols, and
focus on the more tractable and potentially applicable effects,
three more specific recommendations could be offered.
First, given the irregularity of the phenomena, their possible
dependence upon a broad range of physical, psychological,
physiological, and environmental parameters, and their ten-
dency to display effects as marginal deviations from some
"normal" distributions, some premium should probably be
placed on the capacity of the experiments for large data base
accumulation and processing. While less prolific studies may
continue to provide interesting anecdotal effects and suggest
procedures for more detailed programs, it is unlikely that much
correlation of those effects with pertinent prevailing parameters
can be achieved without large quantities of data. More specifi-
cally, the favored experiments should 1) deal with processes
found to have relatively high intrinsic yields; 2) employ equip-
ment and protocols which permit data acquisition at rapid rates;
and 3) have access to computational equipment and software
which allow storage of large data arrays and processing of that
data in many selective cross-concatenations. As an example,
the latest refinement of the REG experiment described earlier
· allows acquisition, storage, and primary processing of several
."hundred experimental trials (~105 - 106 bits) per hour, and
58-80789100340003000114previously stored data by any
permutation of ten parametric indices, e.g., sampling rate,
manual/automatic, volitional/instructed, operator characteris-
tics, etc. For any such parametric explorations to be indicative,
the pertinent data subset must be adequately large to display
any systematic deviation from the baseline distribution beyond
the statistical noise background. This we have found to re-
quire at least several thousand trials; the implication for the
total data base is clear.
This very large data capability inevitably predicates a sophis-
tication in equipment and software which, beyond the initial
and operating expenses, may introduce some undesirable effects
of complicating the phenomenological processes and clouding
the experimental ambiences. Specifically, one needs to consider
whether any observed effects, in either the PK or ESP categories,
still trace unequivocally to the primary physical processes, or
whether there now might arise confounding interactions with
elements of the data collection and processing equipment or
techniques. Related to this concern are possible uncertainties
of the participants in defining and focusing on the primary
tasks.
Reservations of this sort lead directly to a second general rec-
ommendation for effective psychic experimentation. Namely, if
the phenomena derive to any significant degree from conscious
or subconscious processes of the human mind, it is important
that such not be inhibited or excessively complicated by the
design and operation of the experiments. For this and numer-
ous other reasons, it is probably essential in planning and im-
plementing the experimental programs to include the insights,
interpretations, and intuitions of the human operators, espe-
cially those who have demonstrated some success in the gen-
eration of the phenomena. It is quite possible that the differ-
ence between a sterile experiment and an effective one of equal
rigor lies as much in the impressionistic aspects of its ambience
and feedback as in the elegance of its instrumentation, and the
former need to be well-tuned to the participants who are asked
to function as components of the experimental system. On oc-
casion, there seems to have been some tendency in this field to
treat the experimental participants in rather perfunctory fash-
ion, discounting any insights they might offer on the tasks at
hand. If one subscribes at all to the concept of the phenomena
emerging from some interpenetration of analytic and intuitive
processes as suggested by the holistic models, there would seem
no better place to combine perceptions and insights from these
two domains than in the design, operation, and interpretation
of the experiments addressed to illumination of the interface.
Finally, it seems most evident that given the intrinsic trans-
disciplinary nature of the business, research on this topic in
any established sector should become much more communica-
tive and interactive across traditional scholarly boundaries if it
is to have any hope of rendering the phenomena into compre-
hensible and serviceable terms. This cross-talk cannot be
limited to naturally contiguous fields, à la the usual exchange
between physicist and engineer, or between psychologist and
sociologist. As its lengthy heritage illustrates, in this domain
the interests and insights of the theologian, philosopher, statis-
tician, technologist, hard scientist, and creative holistic thinker
are all potentially valid, and need to be melded in scholarly
symbiosis and common respect. No insular approach is likely
to prevail.
This requisite has implications for the staffing of particular
' projects, for the institutional environment in which they oper-
ate, and for the professional societies and publications which
choose to attend to this topic. Individual laboratory personnel
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groups should comprise a broader range of experience and in-
sight than the conventional hierarchy of technical specialists,
and their cognizance of other contemporary work should be
broader. The institution housing that laboratory needs to dis-
play considerable tolerance and support for the unusual tone
and special requirements of the research and not force its con-
formity to established scientific subdivisions and research styles.
Likewise, the professional community at large cannot at this
time profitably ask for total adherence to its own reductionistic
superstructure, but can only inquire dispassionately regarding
the respective implications of this conglomerate field for the
traditional areas of endeavor.
In this last regard, I should like to express my personal re-
spect for this particular Society, and for this particular Journal,
, for the openness and generosity of spirit with which they have
solicited and presented the results of legitimate scholarly effort
in this difficult field. Their attitude could well stand as a model
for other institutions and organs in dealing with this topic or
with any other present or future projective area of human
inquiry.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The author would like to express his indebtedness to his re-
search colleague, Ms. B. J. Dunne, who has provided immense
logistical help in the preparation of this manuscript and who,
as laboratory manager of the Princeton Engineering Anomalies
Research program, has played a primary role in the generation
and interpretation of much of the data reported herein. Dr.
R. D. Nelson also contributed heavily to the experimental pro-
gram and to the refinement of the manuscript. Prof. W. H.
Surber designed much of the REG circuitry and software, and
wrote the original programs for the remote perception analytical
judging procedure.
The program has also benefitted immensely from the interests
and efforts of several present and past students and staff, most
notably C. K. Curry (Dunham), E. G. Jahn, T. A. Curtis, and
I. A. Cook.
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Delaware; Denver; Drexel; Duke; Finch; Harvard; Illinois; John F.
Kennedy; Kent State; Michigan; Missouri; Mundelein; Newark
College of Engineering; New School for Social Research; NYU;
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....
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[41] List available upon request.
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Foundation, San Antonio, TX; SRI International, Menlo Park,
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CA; Society for Psychical Research, London; Forschungsinstit
für Psychotronik, West Berlin; Matsui Hospital, Kasahara, Japan;
Inst. of Pharmacology, Polish Academy of Sciences, Krakow;
Shanghai Municipal Human Exception Functions Research Soci-
ety. Corporations: Airesearch Company of California; Boeing
Scientific Research Laboratories.
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R. S. de Ropp, The New Prometheans. New York: Delacorte,
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Psychology and Anomalous Observations
The Question of ESP in Dreams
Irvin L. Child Yale University
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1
ABSTRACT: Books by psychologists purporting to of-
fer critical reviews of research in parapsychology do
not use the scientific standards of discourse prevalent
in psychology. Experiments al Maimonides Medical
Center on possible extrasensory perception (ESP) in
dreams are used to illustrate this point. The experi-
ments have received little or no mention in some re-
views to which they are clearly pertinent. In others,
they have been so severely distorted as to give an en-
tirely erroneous impression of how they were con-
ducted. Insofar as psychologists are guided by these
reviews, they are prevented from gaining accurate in-
formation about research that, as surveys show, would
be of wide interest to psychologists as well as to others.
In recent years, evidence has been accumulating for
the occurrence of such anomalies as telepathy and
psychokinesis, but the evidence is not totally con-
vincing. The evidence has come largely from experi-
ments by psychologists who have devoted their careers
mainly to studying these anomalies, but members of
other disciplines, including engineering and physics,
have also taken part. Some psychologists not primarily
concerned with parapsychology have taken time; out
from other professional concerns to explore such
anomalies for themselves. Of these, some have joined
in the experimentation (e.g., Crandall & Hite, 1983;
. Lowry, 1981; Radin, 1982). Some have critically re-
viewed portions of the evidence (e.g., Akers, 1984;
Hyman, 1985). Some, doubting that the phenomena
could be real, have explored nonrational processes
that might encourage belief in their reality (c.g., Ay-
croff & Abelson, 1976). Still others, considering the
evidence substantial enough to justify a constructive
theoretical effort, have struggled to relate the apparent
anomalies to better established knowledge in a way
that will render them less anomalous (e.g., Irwin,
1979) or not anomalous at all (c.g., Blackmore, 1984).
These psychologists differ widely in their surmise
about whether the apparent anomalies in question will
eventually be judged real or illusory, but they appear
to agree that the evidence to date warrants serious
consideration.
regardless of whether it leads to an understanding of
new discoveries or to an understanding of how per-
suasive illusions arise. Apparent anomalies-just like
the more numerous observations that are not anom-
alous-can receive appropriate attention only as they
become accurately known to the scientists to whose
work they are relevant. Much parapsychological re-
search is barred from being seriously considered be-
cause it is either neglected or misrepresented in writ-
ings by some psychologists-among them, some who
have placed themselves in a prime position to mediate
interaction between parapsychological research and
the general body of psychological knowledge. In this
article, I illustrate this important general point with
a particular case, that of experimental research on
possible ESP in dreams. It is a case of especially great
interest but is not unrepresentative of how psycho-
logical publications have treated similar anomalies.
The Maimonides Research
The experimental evidence suggesting that dreams
may actually be influenced by ESP comes almost en-
tirely from a research program carried out at the
Maimonides Medical Center in Brooklyn, New York.
Among scientists active in parapsychology, this pro-
gram is widely known and greatly respected. It has
had a major indirect influence on the recent course
of parapsychological research, although the great ex-
pense of dream-laboratory work has prevented it from
being a direct model.
None of the Maimonides research was published
in the journals that are the conventional media for
psychology. (The only possible exception is that a
summary of one study [Honorton, Krippner, & Ull-
man, 1972] appeared in convention proceedings of
the American Psychological Association.) Much of it
was published in the specialized journals of parapsy-
chology. The rest was published in psychiatric or other
medical journals, where it would not be noticed by
many psychologists. Most of it was summarized in
popularized form in a book (Ullman, Krippner, &
Vaughan, 1973) in which two of the researchers were
joined by a popular writer whose own writings are
clearly not in the scientific tradition, and the book
Serious consideration of apparent anomalies departs from the pattern of scientific reporting that
seems an essential part of the procedures of science, characterizes the original research reports.
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How, then, would this research come to the at- explained in detail unless the percipient was a repeater
for whom that step was not necessary. When ready-
to go to bed, the percipient was wired up in the usual
way for monitoring of brain waves and eye move-
ments, and he or she had no further contact with the
agent or agent's experimenter until after the session =
was completed. The experimenter in the next room
monitored the percipient's sleep and at the beginning
of each period of rapid eye movements (REM), when
it was reasonably certain the sleeper would be dream-
ing, notified the agent by pressing a buzzer.
The experiments at Maimonides grew out of
Montague Ullman's observations, in his psychiatric
practice, of apparent telepathy underlying the content . cipient and thus influencing the dream the percipient
of some dreams reported by his patients-observa-
tions parallel to those reported by many other psy-
chiatrists. He sought to determine whether this ap-
parent phenomenon would appear in a sleep labora-
tory under controlled conditions that would seem to
exclude interpretations other than that of ESP. He
was joined in this research by psychologist Stanley
Krippner, now at the Saybrook Institute in San Fran-
cisco, and a little later by Charles Honorton, now head
of the Psychophysical Research Laboratories in
Princeton, New Jersey. Encouraged by carly findings
but seeking to improve experimental controls and
identify optimal conditions, these researchers, assisted
by numerous helpers and consultants, tried out var-
ious modifications of procedure. No one simple de-
scription of procedure, therefore, can be accurate for
all of the experiments. But the brief description that
follows is not, I believe, misleading as an account of
what was generally donc.
The Experimental Procedure
A subject would come to the laboratory to spend the
night there as would-be percipient in a study of pos-
sible telepathic influence on dreams. He or she met
and talked with the person who was going to serve as
agent (that is, the person who would try to send a
telepathic message), as well as with the two experi-
menters taking part that night, and procedures were
Requests for reprints should be sent to Irvin L. Child at the De-
partment of Psychology, Yale University, P.O. Box 11A, New Haven,
Connecticut 06520-7447.
The agent was in a remote room in the building.
provided with a target picture (and sometimes acces-
sory material echoing the theme of the picture) ran-
domly chosen from a pool of potential targets as the
message to be concentrated on. The procedure for
random choice of a target from the pool was designed"
to prevent anyone else from knowing the identity of
the target. The agent did not open the packet con-
taining the target until isolated for the night (except
for the one-way buzzer communication). Whenever
signaled that the percipient had entered a REM pe-
riod, the agent was to concentrate on the target, with
the aim of communicating it telepathically to the per-
was having. The percipient was oriented toward trying
to receive this message. But of course if clairvoyance
and telepathy are both possible, the percipient might
have used the former-that is, might have been pick-
ing up information directly from the target picture,
without the mediation of the agent's thoughts or ef-
forts. For this reason, the term general extrasensor
perception (GESP) would be used today, though the
researchers more often used the term telepathy.
Toward the approximate end of cach REM pe-
rod, the percipient was awakened (by intercom) by
the monitoring experimenter and described any
dream just experienced (with prodding and question-
ing, if necessary, though the percipient of course knew
in advance what to do on cach awakening). At the
end of the night's sleep, the percipient was interviewed
and was asked for impressions about what the target"
might have been. (The interview was of course double-
blind; neither percipient nor interviewer knew the
identity of the target.) The dream descriptions and
morning impressions and associations were recorded
and later transcribed.
The original research reports and the popular
book both present a number of very striking similar-
ities between passages in the dream transcripts and
the picture that happened to be the night's target.
These similarities merit attention, yet they should in
themselves yield no sense of conviction. Perhaps any
transcript of a night's dreaming contains passages of
striking similarity to any picture to which they might
be compared. The Maimonides research, however.
consisted of carefully planned experiments designed
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tention of psychologists, so that its findings or its errors
might in time be evaluated for their significance to
the body of systematic observations upon which psy-
chology has been and will be built? The experiments
at Maimonides were published between about 1966
and 1972. In the years since-now over a decade-
five books have been published by academic psy-
chologists that purport to offer a scholarly review and
evaluation of parapsychological research. They vary
in the extent to which they seem addressed to psy-
chologists themselves or to their students, but they
seem to be the principal route by which either present
or future psychologists, unless they have an already
established interest strong enough to lead them to
search out the original publications, might become
acquainted with the experiments on ESP in dreams.
I propose to review how these five books have pre-
sented knowledge about the experiments. First, how-
ever, I must offer a summary of the experiments;
without that, my review would make sense only to
readers already well acquainted with them.

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similarity, and I must now turn to that aspect.
Results
To evaluate the chance hypothesis, the researchers
obtained judgments of similarity between the dream
content and the actual target for the night, and at the
same time obtained judgments of similarity between
the dream content and each of the other potential
targets in the pool from which the target had been
selected at random. The person judging, of course,
had no information about which picture had been
randomly selected as target; the entire pool (in du-
plicate) was presented together, with no clue as to
which picture had been the target and which ones had
not. That is, in the experimental condition a picture
was randomly selected from a pool and concentrated
on by the agent, and in the control condition a picture
was left behind in the pool. Any consistent difference
between target and nontarget in similarity to dream
content, exceeding what could reasonably be ascribed
to chance, was considered an apparent anomaly.
The data available for the largest number of ses-
sions came from judgments made by judges wbo had
no contact with the experiment except to receive (by
mail, generally) the material necessary for judging
(transcripts of dreams and interview and a copy of
the target pool). For many sessions, judgments were
also available from the dreamer, he or she, of course,
made judgments only after completing participation
in the experiment as dreamer (except in some series
where a separate target pool was used for each night
and the dreamer's judgments could be made at the
end of the session). For many sessions, judgments were
made for the dream transcripts alone and for the total
transcript including the morning interview, for con-
sistency I have used the latter, because it involved
judges who had more Dearly the same information as
the subjects.
The only form in which the data are available
for all series of sessions is a count of hits and misses.
If the actual target was ranked in the upper half of
the target pool, for similarity to the dreams and in-
terview, the outcome was considered a hit. If the actual
target was ranked in the lower half of the pool, the
outcome was considered a miss. The hit-or-miss score
is presented separately in Table 1 for judges and for
subjects in the first two data columns. Where infor-
mation is not supplied for one or the other, the reason
is generally that it was impossible for the researchers
to obtain it, and for a similar reason the number of
cases sometimes varies.1 .
" Of course, usable judgments could not be obtained from the
subject in precognitive sessions, because at the time of judging he
or she would already know what the target had been. For Live F.
the single subject was unable 10 give the extra time required for
judging, and for Live O one of the four subjects failed to make
-
of the research, and segments for the most part are
Labeled as they were in the table of Ullman et al. (1973,
pp. 275-277). Segments that followed the general
procedure I described-all-night sessions, with an
agent concentrating on the target during each of the
percipient's REM periods-are gathered together in
the first eight Lines, A through H (in five of these seg-
ments, all but A, C, and H, a single percipient con-
tinued throughout a series, and in four of these the
percipient was a psychologist). Other types of segments
are presented in the rest of the table. Lines I, J, and
K summarize precognitive sessions; here the target
was not selected until after the dreaming and interview
had been completed. The target consisted of a set of
stimuli to be presented directly to the percipient after
it had been selected in the morning. Lines L and M
represent GESP sessions in which the percipien:'s
dreams were monitored and recorded throughout the
night, but the agent was attempting to transmit only
before the percipient went to sleep or just after, or
sporadically. Line N refers to a few clairvoyance ses-
sions; these were like the standard GESP sessions ex-
cept that there was no agent (no one knew the identity
of the target). Finally, Line O reports on some GESP
sessions in which each dream was considered sepa-
rately; these formed a single experiment with four
percipients, comparing nights involving a different
target for each REM period with nights involving re-
peated use of a single target.
Regardless of the type of session (considering the
five types I have described), cach session fell into one
of two categories: (a) pilot sessions, in which either a
new dreamer or a new procedure was being tried ost;
these appear in lines H, K, and N, or (b) sessions in
an experimental series, planned in advance as one or
more sessions for each of two or more subjects, or as
a number of sessions with the same dreamer through-
out. Most of the researchers' publications were de-
voted to the results obtained in the experimental se-
ries, but the results of the pilot sessions have also been
briefly reported.
A glance at the score columns for judges and for
subjects is sufficient to indicate a strong tendency for
an excess of hits over misses. If we average the outcome
for judges and for subjects, we find that hits exceed
misses on every one of the 15 independent lines on
which outcome for hits and misses differs. (On Line
E. hits and misses occur with equal frequency.) By a
simple sign-test, this outcome would be significant
beyond the 0.0001 level. I would not stress the exact
value here, for several reasons. There was no advance
judgments. In a few of the pilot sessions (Lines H. K. and N) only
the subject's judgment was sought, and in some sessions only that
of one or more judges; in a few the mean judges' rating was neither
a hit bor a miss but exactly at the middle.
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Table 1
Summary of Maimonides Results on Tendency for Dreams to Be Judged More Like Target
Than Like Nontargets in Target Pool
Judgen'
Subjecta'
z ort rilwutang from judomand
Subject
SOUTH
GESP: Dreams monitored and recorded throughout night; agent "transmitting" during each REM period
A. 1st screening
7
5
10
2
I = 0.71ª
z = 1.33°
Ullman, Krippner, &
Feldstein (1966)
Ullman et al. (1966)
B. 1st Erwin
5
2
6
1
Z = 2.53
z = 1.90
C. 2nd screening
4
8
9
3
z = -. 25b
z = 1.17°
Ulman (1969)
D. Posin
6
2
6
2
z = 1.05€
z = 1.05€
Ulman (1969)
E. Grayeb
3
5
5
3
Z * -. 63€
Z = 0.63€
Ullman. Knippner, &
Vaughan (1973)
Ullman & Krippner
(1969)
G. Van de Castle
6
2
8
0
[ = 2.81ª
t = 2.74ª
Krippner & Ullman
(1970)
H. Pilot sessions
53
14
42
22
z = 4.20°
Z = 2.21
Ullman et al. (1973)
Precognition: Dreams monitored and recorded throughout night; target experience next day
1. 1st Bessent
7
1
t = 2.81ª
J. 2nd Bessent
7
1
t = 2.27*
K. Pilot sessions
2
0
GESP: Dreams monitored and recorded throughout night; agent active only at beginning or sporadically
L. Sensory bombard-
8
0
4
4
Z = 3.11b
z = 0.00€
Krippner, Honorton,
Ullman, Masters, &
Houston (1971)
M. Grateful Dead
7
5
8
4
z = 0.61º
z = 0.81ª
Krippner, Honorton, &
UHlman (1973)
Clairvoyance: Dreams monitored and recorded throughout night; concealed target known to no one
N. Pilot sessions
5
3
4
5
z = 0.98₺
z = 0.00°
Ulman et al. (1973)
GESP: Single dreams
O. Vaughan, Harris,
Parise
105
98
74
79
z = 0.63.
z = -. 32ª
Honorton, Krippner, &
Ullman (1972)
Note. GESP - general extrasensory perception. Italics Identity results obtained with procedures that preserve independence of judgments in I seres.
For some series , the published source does not use the uniform measures entered in this table, and mimeographed laboratory reports were Iso
consulted. Supericipts indicate which measure was available , in order of priority .
" Ratings. " Rankings. " Score ( count of hits and misses).
plan to merge the outcomes for judges and subjects. sonably be ascribed to chance. There is some system-
Moreover, the various series could be split up in other atic-that is, nonrandom-source of anomalous re-
ways. Although I think my organization of the table semblance of dreams to target.
is very reasonable (and I did not notice this outcome
Despite its breadth, this "hitting" tendency seems
until after the table was constructed), it is not the to vary greatly in strength. The data on single
organization selected by Ullman et al. (1973); their dreams-Line O-suggest no consistency. At the
other extreme, some separate lines of the table look
table, if evaluated statistically in this same way, would
not yield so striking a result. What is clear is that the impressive. I will next consider how we may legiti-
tendency toward hits rather than misses cannot rea- mately evaluate the relative statistical significance of
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F. 2nd Erwin
8
0
( = 4.93'
Z = 0.67€
Krippner, Ullman, &
Honorton (1971)
Krippner, Honorton, &
Ullman (1972)
Ullman et al. (1973)
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separate parts of the data on all-night sessions. (I will
Is there likely to have been much of this non-
not try to take exact account here of the fact that the independence in the series where it was possible? A
single-dream data are not significant, though it is wisc
to have in mind that the exact values I cite must be
viewed as slightly exaggerated, in the absence of any
explicit advance prediction that the results for all-night
sessions and for single dreams would differ greatly.)
Two difficulties, one general and one specific,
stand in the way of making as thorough an evaluation
as I would wish. The general difficulty is that the re-
scarchers turned the task of statistical evaluation over
to various consultants-for the most part, different
consultants at various times-and some of the con-
sultants must also have influenced the choice of pro-
cedures and measures. The consultants, and presum-
ably the researchers themselves, seem not to have been
at that time very experienced in working with some
of the design problems posed by this research nor in
The outcome is clear. Several segments of the
data, considered separately, yield significant evidence
that dreams (and associations 10 them) tended to re-
semble the picture chosen randomly as target more
than they resembled other pictures in the pool. In the
case of evaluation by outside judges, two of the three
segments that are free of the problem of noninde-
pendence yield separately significant results: The pilot
planning how the research could be done to permit
effective analysis. Much of the research was not prop-
erly analyzed at the time, and for much of it the full
original data are no longer available. (The researchers
have been very helpful in supplying me with material
they have been able to locate despite dispersal and
storage of the laboratory's files. Perhaps additional
details may be recovered in the future.) The result is sessions (Line H) yield a z of 4.20, and thus a p of
that completely satisfactory analysis is at present pos-
sible only for some portions of the data.
pertinent fact is that the hits were not generally direct
hits. That is, there was no overwhelming tendency for
the correct targe: to be given first place rather than
just being ranked in the upper half of the target pool.
This greatly reduces the strength of the argument tha!
ordinary significance tests are grossly inaccurate be-
cause of nonindependence. Because certainty is not
possible, however, we need to separate results accord-
ing to whether the procedures permitted this kind of
nonindependence. In the table, I have italicized results
that cannot have been influenced by this difficulty
(either because cech night's ratings were made by .a
different person o: because cach night in a series had,
and was judged in relation to, a separate target pool)
or that closely approximate this ideal condition.
The specific difficulty results from a feature of
the research design employed in most of the experi-
mental series, a feature whose implications the re- them in the standard way, we find that the two series
searchers did not fully appreciate at the time. If a with psychologist William Erwin as dreamer are also
judge is presented with a set of transcripts and a set significant (if nonindependence of judgments does not
of targets and is asked to judge similarity of each target seriously interfere), Line B with a z of 2.53 (p <. 01)
to cach transcript, the various judgments may not be
completely independent. If one transcript is so closely
and Line F with a t of 4.93 and 7 df (p < . 01). The
two precognitive series (Lines'I and J), cach with 7
similar to a particular target that the judge is confident df, yield is of 2.81 and 2.27, with p values slightly
of having recognized a correct match, the judge (or above and below .[5, respectively.
percipient, of course) may minimize the similarity of
Segment results based on the subjects' own judg-
that target to the transcripts judged later. Instructions ments of similarity are less significant than those based
to judges explicitly urged them to avoid this error, but on judgments by outside judges. Only two segments
we cannot tell how thoroughly this directive was fol- reach minimal levels of statistical significance: Line
lowed. Nonindependence would create no bias toward G, where the I of 2.74 with 7 df is significant at the
cither positive or negative evidence of correspondence .05 level, and Line H, where the z of 2.21 is significant
between targets and transcripts, but it would alter at the .05 level.
variability and thus render inappropriate some stan-
The statistical evaluation of the separate seg-
dard tests of significance. I have entered in the two ments of the Maimonides experiments also permits
succeeding columns of the table a for a z that can be a more adequate evaluation of their overall statistical
used in evaluating the statistical significance of the significance. For judgments by outside judges, three
departure from chance expectancy (/ is required wben segments are free of the potential nonindependence
ratings are available, and z must be used when only of successive judgments (Lines H, L, and N). Putting
rankings or score counts are available, because sample these three together by the procedure Mosteller and
variability in the former case is estimated from the Bush (1954, pp. 329-330) ascribed to Stouffer (rec-
data but in the latter case must be based conservatively
ommended by Rosenthal [1984, p. 72] as the "simplest
on a theoretical distribution.) If ratings were available, and most versatile" of the possible procedures), the
they were used; if not, rankings were used if available; joint p value is <. 000002. For the subjects' own judg-
otherwise, score count was used.
ments, six segments are available (Lines A, C, G, H.
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.00002. An experiment with distant but multisensory
targets (Line L) yields a z of 3.11 and a p of .001. If
we consider segments in which judgments may not
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L, and N), and their joint p value is less than .002. to use a term such as anomalies, so as to avoid variable
The other segments of the data have the problem of and possibly confusing connotations about the origin
potential nonindependence of successive judgments, of the anomalies. Zusne and Jones (1982) wisely pre-
and even if the exaggeration of significance may be pared the way for this usage in speaking of anomalistic
small for a single line, I would not want to risk com- psychology. But meanwhile, psychologists need not
pounding it in an overall p. Their prevailing unity of
cut themselves off from knowledge of relevant facts
because of dissatisfaction with the terminology sur-
direction, however (direction not being subject to in-
fluence by the kind of nonindependence involved rounding their presentation.
here), and the substantial size of some of the differ-
ences, justify the inference that the overall evidence
of consistency far exceeds that indicated by only those
selected segments for which a precise statistical state-
ment is possible. The impression given by the mere
count of hits and misses is thus fully confirmed when
more sensitive measures are used.
Parapsychological experiments are sometimes
criticized on the grounds that what evidence they expectation-slightly below in one study (Belvedere
provide for ESP indicates at most some very small
& Foulkes, 1971), slightly above in the other (Foulkes
effects detectable only by amassing large bodies of et al., 1972). In a replication at the Boston University
data. Those to whom this criticism has any appeal
should be aware that the Maimonides experiments
are clearly exempt from it. The significant results on
Lines F and G of the table, for example, are cach
attributable basically to just eight data points.
If replications elsewhere should eventually con-
firm the statistically significant outcome of the Mai-
monides experiments, would the fact of statistical sig-
nificance in itself establish the presence of the kind
of anomaly called ESP? Of course not. Statistical sig-
nificance indicates only the presence of consistency
and does not identify its source. ESP, or the more
general term psi, is a label for consistencies that have
no identifiable source and that suggest transfer of in-
formation by channels not familiar to present scien-
tific knowledge. A judgment about the appropriateness
of the label, and thus about the "ESP hypothesis," is
complex. It depends on a variety of other judgments
and knowledge-how confidently other possible
sources of the consistent effect can be excluded,
whether other lines of experimentation are yielding
results that suggest the same judgment, and so on.
I believe many psychologists would, like myself,
consider the ESP hypothesis to merit serious consid-
cration and continued research if they read the Mai-
monides reports for themselves and if they familiar-
ized themselves with other recent and older lines of
experimentation (c.g., Jahn, 1982, and many of the
chapters in Wolman, 1977).
Some parapsychological researchers-among
them the Maimonides group-have written at times
as though a finding of statistical significance suffi-
ciently justified a conclusion that the apparent anom-
aly should be classified as ESP. I can understand their
choice of words, which is based on their own confi-
dence that their experiments permitted exclusion of
other interpretations. But perhaps psychologists who
Attempted Replications Elsewhere
The Maimonides pattern of controlled experiment in
a sleep laboratory, obviously, is extremely time con-
suming and expensive, and replication seems to have
been attempted so far at only two other sleep lato-
ratories. At the University of Wyoming, two experi-
ments yielded results approximately at mean chance
School of Medicine (Globus, Knapp, Skinner, &
Healey, 1968), overall results were not significantly
positive, though in this instance encouragement for
.further exploration was reported. The researchers had
decided in advance to base their conclusions on exact
hits-that is, placing the target first, rather than just
in the upper half; by this measure, the results were
encouraging, though not statistically significant.
Moreover, to quote the researchers, "Post hoc analysis
revealed that the judges were significantly more correct
when they were more 'confident' in their judgments.
. . Further conservatively designed research does
seem indicated because of these findings" (Globus et
al., 1968, p. 365).
A study by Calvin Hall (1967) is sometimes cited
as a replication that confirmed the Maimonides find-
ings; in truth, however, although it provided impres-
sive case material, it was not done in a way that per-
mits evaluation as a replication of the Maimonices
experiments. Several small-scale studies, done without
the facilities of a sleep laboratory, have been reported
that are not replications of even one of the more am-
bitious Maimonides experiments but cach of which
reports positive results that might encourage further
exploration (Braud, 1977; Child, Kanthamani, &
Sweeney, 1977; Rechtschaffen, 1970; Strauch, 1970;
Van de Castle, 1971). In the case of these minor stud-
ies-unlike the Maimonides studies and the three
systematic replications-one must recognize the like-
lihood of selective publication on the basis of inter-
esting results. Taken all together, these diverse and
generally small-scale studies done elsewhere do, in my
opinion, add something to the conviction the Mai-
monides experiments might inspire, that dream re-
search is a promising technique for experimental study
of the ESP question.
The lack of significant results in the three sys-
in the future become involved in this area may prefer tematic replications is hardly conclusive evidence
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against eventual replicability. In the Maimonides se- the night. He did this notably by misinterpreting an
ries, likewise, three successive replications (Lines C. ambiguous statement in the Maimonides reports, not
D, and E in Table 1) yielded no significant result, yet
they are part of a program yielding highly significant
overall results.
mentioning that his interpretation was incompatible
with other passages; his interpretation was in fact cr-
roncous, as shown by Akers (1984, pp. 128-129).
If results of such potentially great interest and
scientific importance as those of the Maimonides
program had been reported on a more conventional
topic, one might expect them to be widely and ac-
curately described in reviews of the field to which.
they were relevant, and to be analyzed carefully as a
basis for sound evaluation of whether replication and
extension of the research were indicated, or of whethe:
errors could be detected and understood. What has
happened in this instance of anomalous research
findings?
Furthermore, Hansel did not alert the reader to the
great care exerted by the researchers to eliminate pos-
sible sources of sensory cuing. Most important is the
fact that Hansel did not provide any plausible ac-
count-other than, fraud- of how the opportunities
for sensory cuing that he claimed existed would be
likely to lead to the striking findings of the research.
For example, he seemed to consider important the
fact that at Maimonides the agent could leave bis or
her room during the night to go to the bathroom,
whereas in Wyoming the agent had a room with its
Representation of the Maimonides
Research in Books by Psychologists
owo bathroom, and the outer door to the room was
sealed with tape to prevent the agent from emerging.
Hansel did not attempt to say how the agent's visit to
the bathroom could have altered the details of the
percipient's dreams cach night in a manner distinc-
tively appropriate to that night's target. The only
plausible route of influence on the dream record
seems to be deliberate fraud involving the researchers
and their subjects. The great number and variety of
personnel in these studies-experimenters, agents,
percipients, and judges-makes fraud especially un-
likely as an explanation of the positive findings; but
Hansel did not mention this important fact.
It is appropriate to begin with E. M. Hansel's 1980
revision of his carlier critical book on parapsychology.
As part of his attempt to bring the carlier book up 10
date, he included an entire chapter on experiments
on telepathy in dreams. One page was devoted to a
description of the basic method used in the Maimon-
ides experiments; one paragraph summarized the im-
pressive outcome of 10 of the experiments. The res.
of the chapter was devoted mainly to a specific account
of the experiment in which psychologist Robert Van
de Castle was the subject (the outcome is summarized
in Line G of my Table 1) and to the attempted rep-
lication at the University of Wyoming (Belvedere &
Foulkes, 1971), in which Van de Castle was again the
subject. Another page was devoted to another of the
Maimonides experiments that was also repeated at
the University of Wyoming. (Foulkes et al., 1972).
Hansel did not mention the replication by Globus c:
al. (1968), whose authors felt that the results encour-
aged further exploration. Hansel gaw more weight to
the two negative outcomes at Wyoming than to the
-sum of the Maimonides research, arguing that sensory
tues supposedly permitted by the procedures at Mai-
monides, pot possible because of greater care taken
by the Wyoming experimenters, were responsible for
the difference in results. He did not provide, of course,
the full account of procedures presented in the original
Maimonides reports that might persuade many read-
ers that Hansel's interpretation is far from compelling.
Nor and he consider why some of the other experi-
ments at Maimonides, not obviously distinguished in
the care with which they were done from the two that
were replicated (c.g., those on Lines E, M, and O of
Table 1) yielded a close-to-chance outcome such as
Hansel might have expected sensory cuing to prevent.
Hansel exaggerated the opportunities for sensory
cuing- - that is, for the percipient to obtain by ordinary
sensory means some information about the target for
It appears to me that all of Hansel's criticisms
of the Maimonides experiments are relevant only on
the hypothesis of fraud (except for the mistaken crit-
icism I have mentioned above). He said that uninten-
tional communication was more likely but provided
no evidence either that it occurred or that such com-
munication-in any form in which it might have oc-
curred-could have produced such consistent results
as emerged from the Maimonides experiments. I infer
that Hansel was merely avoiding making explicit his
unsupported accusations of fraud. Fraud is an inter-
pretation always important to keep in mind, and it is
one that could not be entirely excluded even by pre-
cautions going beyond those used in the Wyoming
studies. But the fact that fraud was as always, theo-
retically possible hardly justifies dismissal of a series
of carefully conducted studies that offer important
suggestions for opening up a new line of inquiry into
a topic potentially of great significance. Especially re-
grettable is Hansel's description of various supposed
defects in the experiments as though they mark the
experiments as being carelessly conducted by general
scientific criteria, whereas in fact the supposed defects
are relevant only if one assumes fraud. A reader who
is introduced to the Maimonides research by Hansel's
chapter is likely to get a totally erroneous impression
of the care taken by the experimenters to avoid various
possible sources of error. The one thing they could
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not avoid was abbiniveaus Release RODBIO : CARDOSODROB3001because
a priori impossible, hence evidence of fraud; but
Hansel was not entirely frank about his reasoning.
An incidental point worth noting is that Hansel
did not himself apply, in his critical attack, the stan-
dards of evidence he demanded of the researchers.
His conclusions were based implicitly on the assump-
tion that the difference of outcome between the Mai-
monides and the Wyoming experiments was a genuine
difference, not attributable to random variation. Hc
did not even raise the question, as he surely would
have if, in some parallel instance, the Maimonides
researchers had claimed or implied statistical signif-
icance where it was questionable. In fact, the difference
of outcome might well have arisen from random error,
for the percipient's own judgments the difference is
significant at the 5% level (2-tailed), but for the out-
siders' judgments it does not approach significance.
Another 1980 book is The Psychology of Tran-
scendence, by Andrew Neher, in which almost 100
pages are devoted to "psychic experience." Neher dif-
fered from the other authors I refer to in describing
the Maimonides work as a "series of studies of great
interest" (p. 145), but this evaluation seems to be ne-
gated by his devoting only three lines to it and four
Lines to unsuccessful replications.
A third 1980 publication, The Psychology of the
Psychic, by David Marks and Richard Kammann,
provides less of a general review of recent parapsy-
chology than Hansel's book or even Neher's one long
chapter. It is largely devoted to the techniques of
mentalists (that is, conjurors specializing in psycho-
logical rather than physical effects) and can be useful
to anyone encountering a mentalist who pretends to
be "psychic." Most readers are not likely to be aware
that parapsychological research receives only limited
attention. The jacket blurbs give a very different view
of the book, as do the authors in their introductory
sentences:
ESP is just around the next corner. When you get there, it
is just around the next comer. Having now turned over one
hundred of these corners, we decided to call it quits and
report our findings for public review. (Marks & Kammann,
1980, p. 4)
Given this introduction to the nature of the book,
readers might suppose it would at least mention any
corner that many parapsychologists have judged to be
an impressive turning. But the Maimonides dream
experiments received no mention at all.
Another volume, by psychologist James Alcock
(1981), quite clearly purports to include a general re-
view and evaluation of parapsychological research.
Alcock mentioned (p. 6) that Hansel had examined
the Maimonides experiments, but the only account
of them that Alcock offered (on p. 163) was incidental
to a discussion of control groups. By implication he
they included no control groups. He wrote that "a
control group, for which no sender or no target was
used, would appear essential" (p. 163). Later he added,
"One could, altematively, 'send' when the subject was
not in the dream state, and compare 'success' in this
case with success in dream state trials" (p. 163). The
first of these statements suggests a relevant use of con-
trol groups but cars in calling it essential; in other
psychological research, Alcock would have doubtless
readily recognized that within-subject control can,
where feasible, be much more efficient and pertinent
than a separate control group. His second statement"
suggests a type of experiment that is probably im-
possible (because in satisfactory form it seems to re-
quire the subject to dream whether awake or asleep
and not to know whether he or she was awake or
asleep). This second kind off experiment, moreover,
has special pertinence only to a comparison between
dreaming and waking, not to the question of whether
ESP is manifested in dreaming.
Alcock, in short, did not seem to recognize that
the design of the Maimonides experiments was based
on controls exactly parallel to those used by innu-
merable psychologists in other research with similar
logical structure (and even implied, curiously enough,
in his own second suggestion)| He encouraged readers
to think that the Maimonides studies are beyond the
pale of acceptable experimental design, whereas in
fact they are fine examples
of appropriate use of
within-subject control rather than between-subjects
control.
1
The quality of thinking with which Alcock con-
fronted the Maimonides research appeared also in a
passage that did not refer to it by name. Referring to
an article published in The Humanist by Ethel Grod-
zins Romm, he wrote,
Romm (1977) argued that a fundamental problem with both
the dream telepathy research and the remote viewing tests
is that the reports suffer from what she called "shoe-fitting"
language; she cited a study in which the sender was installed
in a room draped in white fabric and had ice cubes poured
down his back. A receiver who reported "white" was im-
mediately judged to have made a "hit" by an independent
panel. Yet, as she observed, words such as "miserable",
"wet" or "icy" would have been better hits ... . Again, the
obvious need is for a control group. Why are they not used?
(p. 163)
What Romm described as "shoe fitting" (misinter-
preting events to fit one's expectations) is an important
kind of error that is repeatedly made in interpretation
of everyday occurrences by people who believe they
are psychic. But the dream telepathy research at Mai-
monides was well protected against this kind of error
by the painstaking controls that Alcock seemed not
to have noticed. Surely Romm must be referring 10
some other and very sloppy dream research?
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Not .al all. The details in this paragraph, and Expect?" and it repeatedly speaks of "cult phuds."
meaning people with PhDs who are interested in
even more in Romm's article, point unmistakably,
though inaccurately, to the fifth night of the first pre- parapsychological problems. Alcock's repetition of
cognitive series at Maimonides. The actual details of
Romm's misstatements in a context lacking these
target and response would alone deprive it of much clues may well be taken by many a reader as scholarly
of its value as an example of shoe fitting. As reported
writing based on correct information and rational
thought. Paradoxically, both Alcock's paragraph and
Romm's article are excellent examples of the shoc-
hifting error that both decry in others who are in fact
carefully avoiding it ..
by Krippner, Ullman, & Honorton (1971), the target
was a morning experience that included being in a
room that was draped with white sheets. The subject's
first dream report had included the statement, "I was
just standing in a room, surrounded by white. Every
imaginable thing in that room was white" (p. 201).
There is more similarity here than Romm and Alcock
acknowledged in mentioning from this passage only
the single word "white."
The last of the five books that bring, or fail to
bring. the Maimonides research to the attention of
psychologists and their students is Anomalistic Psy-
chology: A Study of Extraordinary Phenomena of Be-
havior and Experience, a 1982 volume by Leonard
Zusne and Warren H. Jones. This is in many ways
an excellent book, and it is also the one of the five
that comes closest to including a general review of
important recent research in parapsychology. Its brief
account of the Maimonides dream experiments, how-
ever, misrepresented them in ways that should seri-
ously reduce a reader's interest in considering them
further.
Zusne and Jones's description of the basic pro-
cedure made three serious errors. First, it implied that
one of the experimenters had a chance to know the
identity of the target. ("After the subject falls asleep,
an art reproduction is selected from a large collection
randomly, placed in an envelope, and given to the
agent" p. 260). In fact, precautions were taken to en-
sure that no one but the agent could know the identity
of the target. . Second, the authors stated that "three
judges . .. . rate their confidence that the dream con-
tent matches the target picture" (p. 260), leading the
reader to suppose that the judges were informed of
the identity of the target at the time of rating. In fact,
a judge was presented with a dream transcript and a
pool of potential targets and was asked to .rate the
member of the pool, while being unaware of which
pure fiction, based on failure to note what was done member had been the target. Third, there was a sim-
in the experiments and in particular that the experi-
language and that the design of their experiments in-
corporated procedures to ensure that it could not oc-
cur. Romm's ignorance about the Maimonides re-
search and her apparent willingness to fabricate false-
hoods about it should be recognized by anyone who
had read any of the Maimonides research publica-
tions. Yet Alcock accepted and repeated the fictions
as though they were true. His presentation in the con-
text of a book apparently in the scientific tradition
seems to me more dangerous than Romm's original
article, for anyone with a scientific orientation should
be able to recognize Romm's article as propaganda.
Its title, for example, is "When You Give a Closet
Occultist a PhD, What Kind of Research Can You
More important, however, is the fact that the ex-
periment they were referring to provided no oppor-
tunity for shoc fitting. The procedures followed in the
experiment were completely misrepresented in a way
that created the illusion that the possibility existed.
There was no panel, in the sense of a group of people
gathered together and capable of influencing cach
other. The judges, operating independently, separately
judged every one of the 64 possible combinations of
target and transcript yielded by the eight nights of the
experiment, not just the eight correct pairings, and
they had no clues to which those eight were. Their
responses are bardly likely to have been immediate,
as they required reading the entire night's transcript.
Because cach judge was working alone and was not
recording times, there would have been no record if
a particular response had been immediate, and no
record of what particular element in the transcript
led to an immediate response.
I looked up in a 1977 issue of The Humanist the
article by Romm that Alcock cited. The half page on
shoe-fitting language gave as examples this item from
the Maimonides research and also the SRI remote-
viewing experiments (Puthof & Targ.1976) done at - degree of similarity between the transcript and each
SRI International. In both cases what was said was
ilarly, though more obscurely, misleading description
menters were well aware of the danger of shoe-fitting of how ratings were obtained from the dreamer.
This misinformation was followed by even more
serious misrepresentation of the research and, by im-
plication, of the competence of the researchers. Zusne
and Jones (1982) wrote that Ullman and Krippner
(1978) had found that dreamers were not influenced
telepathically unless they knew in advance that an
attempt would be made to influence them. This led,
they wrote, to the subject's being "primed prior to
going to sleep" through the experimenter's
preparing the receiver through experiences that were related
to the content of the picture to be telepathically transmitted
during the night. Thus, when the picture was Van Gogh's
Corridor of the St. Paul Hospital, which depicts a lonely
figure in the hallways of a mental bospital, the receiver: (1)
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the monitor laugh hysterically in the room; (3) was addressed
as "Mr. Van Gogh" by the monitor; (4) was shown paintings
done by mental patients; (5) was given a pill and a glass of
water, and (6) was daubed with a piece of cottoo dipped in
acetone. The receiver was an English "sensitive," but it is
obvious that po psychic sensitivity was required to figure
out the general content of the picture and to produce an
appropriate report, whether any dreams were actually seen
or DOL (pp. 260-261)
If researchers were to report positive results of
the experiment described bere by Zusne and Jones
and were to claim that it provided some positive ev-
idence of ESP, what would a reader conclude? Surely,
that the researchers were completely incompetent, but
probably not that they were dishonest. For dishonesty
to take such a frank and transparent form is hardly
credible.
Incompetence of the researchers is not, however,
a proper inference. The simple fact, which anyone
can casily verify, is that the account Zusne and Jones
gave of the experiment is grossly inaccurate. What
Zusne and Jones have done is to describe (for one
specific night of the experiment) some of the stimuli
provided to the dreamer the next morning, after his
dreams had been recorded and his night's sleep was
over. Zusne and Jones erroneously stated that these
stimuli were provided before the night's sleep, to prime
the subject to have or falsely report having the desired
kind of dream. The correct sequence of events was
quite clearly stated in the brief reference Zusne and
Jones cited (Ullman & Krippner, 1978), as well as in
the original research report (Krippner, Honorton, &
Ullman, 1972).
I can understand and sympathize with Zusne and
Jones's error. The experiment they cited is one in
which the nocturnal dreamer was seeking to dream
in response to a set of stimuli to be created and pre-
sented to him the next morning. As may be seen in
Table 1, results from such precognitive sessions (all
done with a single subject) were especially strong. This
apparent transcendence of time as well as space makes
the precognitive findings seem at least doubly impos-
sible to most of us. An easy misreading, therefore, on
initially scanning the research report, would be to
suppose the stimuli to have been presented partly in
advance (because some parts obviously involved a
waking subject) and partly during sleep.
This erroneous reading on which Zusne and
Jones based their account could easily have been cor-
rected by a more careful rereading. In dealing with
other topics, they might have realized the improba-
bility that researchers could have been so grossly in-
competent and could have checked the accuracy of
their statements before publishing them. Zusne and
Jones are not alone in this tendency to quick misper-
ception of parapsychological research through pro-
conception and prejudice; we have already seen it in
Aloock's book Alcock (1983) wrote the review of
Zusne and Jones's book for Contemporary Psychology,"
the book-review journal of the American Psycholog-
ical Association, and he did not mention this egregious
error, even though very slight acquaintance with the
Maimonides research should suffice to detect it.
Discussion
The experiments at the Maimonides Medical Center
on the possibility of ESP in dreams clearly merit care-
ful attention from psychologists who, for whatever
reason, are interested in the question of ESP. To firm
believers in the impossibility of ESP, they pose a chal-
lenge to skill in detecting experimental flaws or to the
understanding of other sources of error. To those who
can conceive that ESP might be possible, they convey
-
suggestions about some of the conditions infuencing
its appearance or absence and about techniques for
investigating it.
This attention is not likely to be given by psy -.:
chologists whose knowledge about the experiments
comes from the books by their fellow psychologists
that purport to review parapsychological research.
Some of those books engage in nearly incredible fal-
sification of the facts about the experiments; others
simply neglect them. I believe it is fair to say that
none of these books has correctly identified acy defect
in the Maimonides experiments other than ones rel-
evant only to the hypothesis of fraud or on inappro-
priate statistical reasoning (casily remedied by new
calculations from the published data). I do not mean
that the Maimonides experiments are models of design
and execution. I have already called attention to a
design flaw that prevents sensitive analysis of some of
the experiments; and the control procedures were vi-
olated at one session, as Akers (1984) pointed out on
the basis of the full information supplied in the orig-
inal report. (Neither of these genuine defects was !"
mentioned in any of the five books I have reviewed
here, an indication of their authors' general lack of
correct information about the Maimonides experi-
ments.)
=
Readers who doubt that the falsification is as ex-
treme as I have pictured it need only consult the
sources I have referred to. Their doubt might also be
reduced by familiarity with some of James Bradley's
research (1981, 1984). In his 1984 article, be reported
similar misrepresentations of fact on a topic, robust-
ness of procedures of statistical inference, on which
psychologists would not be thought to have nearly the
strength of preconception that many are known to
have about ESP. How much more likely, then, falsi-
fication on so emotionally laden a topic as ESP is for
many psychologists! In the earlier article, Bradley
(1981) presented experimental evidence (for college
students, in this case, not psychologists) that confi- *
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dence in the correctness of one's own erroneous opin-
ions is positively correlated with the degree of expertise
one believes oneself to have in the field of knowledge
within which the erroncous opinion falls. This finding
may help in understanding why the authors of some
of these books did not find it necessary to consider
critically their own erroneous statements.
A very considerable proportion of psychologists
have a potential interest in the question of ESP. In a .
recent survey (Wagner & Monnet, 1979) of university
professors in various fields, 34% of psychologists were
found to consider ESP either an established fact or a
Gkely possibility, exactly the same proportion as son.
sidered it an impossibility. In this survey, psychologists
less frequently expressed a positive opinion than did
members of other disciplines, a finding that may be
attributable to psychologists' better understanding of
sources of error in human judgment. There seems to
be no equally sound reason for the curious fact that
psychologists differed overwhelmingly from others in
their tendency to consider ESP an impossibility. Of
natural scientists, only 3% checked that opinion; of
the 166 professors in other social sciences, not a single
one did.
"Both of these groups of psychologists have been
ill served by the apparently scholarly books that seem
The same may be said about some other lines of para-
psychological research. Interested readers might well
consult the original sources and form their own judg-
ments.
1
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Alcock, J. E. (1983). Bringing anomalies back into psychology.
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Ayeroff. F., & Abelson. R. P. (1976). ESP and ESB: Belief in personal
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Blackmore, S. J. (1984). A psychological theory of the out-of-body
experience. Journal of Parapsychology: 48. 201-218.
Bradley, J. V. (1981). Overconfidence in ignorant experts. Bulletin
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Bradley, J. V. (1984). AntiDobrobusiness: A case study in the so-
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Braud, W. (1977). Long-distance dream and presleep telepathy. In
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Romm. E. G. (1977). When you give a closet occultist a Pb.D.,
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Child. I. L., Kanthamani, H., & Sweeney, V. M. (1977). A simplified
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R. L. Morris (Eds.), Research in parapsychology 1976 (pp. 91- Rosenthe). R. (1984). Meta-analysis procedures for social research.
93). Metuchen, NJ: Scarecrow.
Crandall, J. E., & Hite. D. D. (1983). Pri-missing and displacement:
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Foulkes, D., Belvedere, E., Masters, R. E. L., Houston, J. Krippner,
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Hall. C. (1967). Experimente zur telepathischen Beeinflussung von
Träumen. [Experiments on telepathic influence on dreams).
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10. 13-47.
Hansel. C. E. M. (1980). ESP and parapsychology: A critical re.
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Honorzeo. C., Krippner, S., & Ullman. M. (1972). Telepathic per-
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Hyman. R. (1985). The ganzfeld psi experiment: A critical appraisal.
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Irwin, H. J. (1979). Psi and the mind: An information processing
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Jahn. R. G. (1982). The persistent paradox of psychic phenomena:
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Krippna S., Homorion, E., & Ullman, M. (1972). A second pre-
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KrippDe: S., Honorioa, C., & Ullman, M. (1973). An experiment
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403.
KrippDe. S., Ullman, M., & Hoportion, C. (1971). A precognitive
dream study with a single subject Journal of the American Society
for Psychical Research, 65. 192-203.
Lowry, F. (1981). Apparent PK effect on computer-generated ran-
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Radin, D. I. (1982). Experimental attempts to influence pseudo-
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Psychical Research, 76. 359-374.
Rechtschaffen, A. (1970). Sleep and dream states: An experimental
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Strauch. 1.(1970). Dreams and psi in the Laboratory. In R. Cavanna
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(Ed.). Psi favorable states of consciousness (pp. 46-54) New York:
Parapsychology Foundation.
Ullman, M. (1969). Telepathy and dreams. Experimental Medicine
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Ullman, M., & Krippeer, S. (1969). A Laboratory approach to the
Doctural dimension of paranormal experience: Report of a con-
firmatory study using the REM monitoring technique. Biological
Psychiatry. 1, 259-270.
Ullman, M., & Krippper, S. (1978). Experimental dream studies.
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Ullman, M., Krippper, S., & Feldstein, S. (1966). Experimentally
induced telepathic dreams: Two studies using EEG-REM moo-
itoring lochinique International Journal of Neuropsychiatry 2.
420-437.
Ullman, M., Krippner, S., & Vaughan, A. (1973). Dream telepathy.
New York: Macmillan.
Van de Castle, R. L. (1971). The study of GESP in a group xening
by means of dreams. Journal of Parapsychology: 35. 312.
Wagner, M. W., & Monnet, M. (1979). Attitudes of college professors
toward extra-sensory perception. Zetetic Scholar, Do. 5, 7-16.
Wolman, B. B. (Ed.). (1977). Handbook of parapsychology. Now
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of curroordinary phenomena of behavior and experience. Hillsdale,
. NJ: Erlbaum.
.
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13
Introduction to
PSYCHOLOGY
ENTH EDITION
Rita L. Atkinson
University of California, San Diego
Richard C. Atkinson
University of California, San Diego
Edward E. Smith
University of Michigan
Daryl J. Bem
Cornell University
HARCOURT BRACE JOVANOVICH, PUBLISHERS
San Diego
New York
Chicago
hington, D.C.
London
Sydney
Tokyo
Toronto
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CONTENTS
xii
-
6 Consciousness and Its Altered States
194
Aspects of Consciousness
195
Divided Consciousness
198
Sleep and Dreams
201
Critical Discussion: Theories of Dream Sleep
210
Psychoactive Drugs
212
Critical Discussion: Drug Dependence
224
Meditation
224
Hypnosis
228
Critical Discussion: The "Hidden Observer" in Hypnosis
232
Psi Phenomena
234
PART
IV
Learning, Remembering, and
Thinking
7
Learning and
Conditioning
246
Perspectives on Conditioning
247
Classical Conditioning
248
Critical Discussion: Neural Basis of Elementary
Learning
254
Operant Conditioning
253
Nature of Reinforcement
262
Critical Discussion: Economics of Reward
266
Newer Approaches
268
8 Memory
280
Distinctions about Memory
281
Short-Term Memory
283
Long-Term Memory
291
Critical Discussion: Childhood Amnesia
304
Improving Memory
306
Constructive Memory
312
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CHAPTER 6 @ CONSCIOUSNESS AND ITS ALTERED STATES
difference between sleep and hypnosis in the EEG and by demonstrations of
alert hypnosis.
A psychoanalytic theory suggests that hypnosis is a state of partial regres-
sion in which the subject lacks the controls present in normal waking con-
sciousness and therefore acts impulsively and engages in fantasy production.
The idea is that hypnosis causes a regression in the thought processes to a
more infantile stage; fantasies and hallucinations during hypnosis are indica-
tors of a primitive mode of thought uncensored by higher levels of control
(Gill, 1972).
A theory based on the dramatic nature of many hypnotic behaviors em-
phasizes a kind of involuntary role enactment as a response to social demands.
This theory does not imply that the subject is playacting in a deliberate at-
tempt to fool the hypnotist; it assumes that the subject becomes so deeply
involved in a role that actions take place without conscious intent (Coe &
Sarbin, 1977).
Yet another approach emphasizes the dissociative aspects of hypnosis.
Dissociation involves a split of consciousness into several streams of thought,
each somewhat independent of the others. Hypnosis theoretically induces a
dissociative state in the subject so that he is not aware of all that is occurring
in consciousness. The hypnotist, however, can tap into the various streams
of thought. A special version of this theory, called neodissociation theory, has
proved to be useful in analyzing hypnotic phenomena (see the following
Critical Discussion).
Competing theories of hypnosis were argued more vehemently in the
1960s and 1970s than they are today. With the facts and relationships now
better understood, differences between explanations fade in importance.
Each theory calls attention to some significant features of hypnosis, and as
new data become available, differences are being resolved (Kihlstrom, 1987).
PSI PHENOMENA
A discussion of consciousness would not be complete without considering
some esoteric and mystical claims about the mind that have attracted wide-
spread public attention. Of particular interest are questions about whether or
not human beings can a) acquire information about the world or other peo-
ple in ways that do not involve stimulation of the known sense organs, or b)
influence physical events by purely mental means. These questions are the
source of controversy over the existence of psi, processes of information
and/or energy exchange not currently explicable in terms of known sci-
ence (in other words, known physical mechanisms). The phenomena of psi
are the subject matter of parapsychology ("beside psychology") and include
the following:
1. Extrasensory perception (ESP). Response to external stimuli without any
known sensory contact.
a. Telepathy. Thought transference from one person to another without the
mediation of any known channel of sensory communication (for exam-
ple, identifying a playing card merely being thought of by another person)
b. Clairvoyance. Perception of objects or events that do not provide a stim-
ulus to the known senses (for example, identifying a concealed playing
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PSI PHENOMENA
c. Precognition. Perception of a future event that could not be anticipated
through any known inferential process (for example, predicting that a
particular number will come up on the next throw of dice)
2. Psychokinesis (PK). Mental influence over physical events without the inter-
vention of any known physical force (for example, willing that a particular
number will come up on the throw of dice).
Experimental Evidence
Most parapsychologists consider themselves to be scientists applying the
usual rules of scientific inquiry to admittedly unusual phenomena. Yet the
phenomena of psi are so extraordinary and so similar to what are widely
regarded as superstitions that some scientists declare psi to be an impos-
sibility and reject the legitimacy of parapsychological inquiry. Such a priori
judgments are out of place in science; the real question is whether the empir-
ical evidence is acceptable by scientific standards. Many psychologists who
are not yet convinced that psi has been demonstrated are nevertheless open
to the possibility that new evidence might emerge that would be more com-
pelling. For their part, many parapsychologists believe that several recent
experimental procedures either provide that evidence already or hold the
potential for doing so. We shall examine one of the most promising of these,
the ganzfeld procedure.
The ganzfeld procedure tests for telepathic communication between a
subject acting as the "receiver" and another subject who serves as the
"sender." The receiver is sequestered in an acoustically isolated room and
placed in a mild form of perceptual isolation: translucent ping-pong ball
halves are taped over the eyes and headphones are placed over the ears;
diffuse red light illuminates the room, and white noise is played through the
headphones. (White noise is a random mixture of sound frequencies similar
to the hiss made by a radio tuned between stations. ) This homogeneous
visual and auditory environment is called the Ganzfeld, a German word
meaning "total field."
The sender is sequestered in a separate acoustically isolated room, and a
visual stimulus (picture, slide, or brief videotape sequence) is randomly se-
lected from a large pool of similar stimuli to serve as the "target" for the
session. While the sender concentrates on the target, the receiver attempts
to describe it by providing a continuous verbal report of his or her ongoing
imagery and free associations. Upon completion of the session, the receiver
is presented with four stimuli-one of which is the target-and asked to rate
the degree to which each matches the imagery and associations experienced
during the ganzfeld session. A "direct hit" is scored if the receiver assigns the
highest rating to the target stimulus.
More than 50 experiments have been conducted since the procedure was
first introduced in 1974; the typical experiment involves about 30 ganzfeld
sessions in which a receiver attempts to identify the target transmitted by the
sender. An overall analysis of 28 studies (comprising a total of 835 ganzfeld
sessions conducted by investigators in 10 different laboratories) reveals that
subjects were able to select the correct target stimulus 38 percent of the time.
Because a subject must select the target from four alternatives, we would
expect a success rate of 25 percent if only chance were operating. Statis-
tically this result is highly significant; the probability that it could have
arisen by chance is less APROXAd for Release13A93/94/1885CIA-RDP96-00789R003 100030001-4
The receiver (top photograph) and the
sender (bottom photograph) in a Ganzfeld

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CHAPTER 6 CONSCIOUSNESS AND ITS ALTERED STATES
I'D HATE TO
OF COURSE
NOT!
ASK PHINEAS A
BILLY QUESTION,
BUT I WONDER IF
THERE REALLY
IS SOMETHING
TO MENTAL
TELEPATHY ...
BilMatz:
11-29
@ Bill Yates: reprinted with special permission of King Features Syndicate, Inc .. 1971.
Debate over the Evidence
In 1985 and 1986, the Journal of Parapsychology published an extended
examination of the ganzfeld studies, focusing on a debate between Ray
Hyman, a cognitive psychologist and critic of parapsychology, and Charles
Honorton, a parapsychologist and major contributor to the ganzfeld data-
base. They agree on the basic quantitative results but disagree on points of
interpretation (Hyman, 1985; Hyman & Honorton, 1986; Honorton, 1955).
We shall use their debate as a vehicle for examining the issues involved in
evaluating claims of psi.
REPLICATION PROBLEM In science generally, a phenomenon is not
considered established until it has been observed repeatedly by several re-
searchers. Accordingly, the most serious criticism of parapsychology is that it
has failed to produce a single reliable demonstration of psi that can be repli-
cated by other investigators. Even the same investigator testing the same
individuals over time may obtain statistically significant results on one occa-
sion but not on another. The ganzfeld procedure is no exception; fewer than
half (43 percent) of the 28 studies analyzed in the debate yielded statistically
significant results.
The parapsychologists' most effective response to this criticism actually
comes from within psychology itself. Many statisticians and psychologists are
dissatisfied with psychology's focus on the statistical significance level as the
sole measure of a study's success. As an alternative, they are increasingly
adopting the technique of meta-analysis, a statistical technique that treats
the accumulated studies of a particular phenomenon as a single grand experi-
ment and each study as a single observation. Thus any study that obtains
results in the positive direction-even though it may not be statistically
significant itself-contributes to the overall strength and reliability of the
phenomenon rather than simply being dismissed as a failure to replicate
(Glass, McGaw, & Smith, 1981; Rosenthal, 1984).
From this perspective, the ganzfeld studies provide impressive repli-
cability: 23 of the 28 studies obtain positive results (more direct hits than
chance would predict), a result whose probability of occurring by chance is
less than one in a thousand.
The conventional criterion of replication further requires that any com-
petent investigator be able to reproduce the claimed phenomenon, not just
one or two gifted experimenters. This is often a difficult criterion to achieve
in new areas of investigation because a number of unsuspected variables
might affect the outcome. In psychological experiments, the experimenter
is often an important social stimulus for the subject and hence a poorly
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PSI PHENOMENA
controlled source of variability. Even in such an established area as classical
conditioning, investigators at one university were obtaining positive results
94 percent of the time while other investigators could do so only 62 percent
of the time (Rosenthal, 1966; Spence, 1964). Nor is the field of psychology
alone here. Similar replication difficulties have been reported in medical
studies of placebo efficacy (Moerman, 1981) and in such physical science
areas as laser technology (Collins, 1974).
This problem may be even more acute in parapsychology because psi
effects may legitimately depend on the motivational atmosphere established
by the experimenter. Some parapsychologists further believe that the experi-
menter's own psi abilities and attitudes can have an effect.
Despite these potential difficulties, the replicability of the ganzfeld effect
does not appear to rest on the success of one or two investigators. Six of the
10 investigators contributing to the 28 examined studies obtained statis-
tically significant results; and, even if all the studies of the two most success-
ful investigators are discarded from the analysis (half of the studies), the
results remain significant (Palmer, Honorton, & Utts, 1988).
The power of a particular experiment to replicate an effect also depends
on how strong the effect is and how many observations are made. If an effect
is weak, an experiment with too few subjects or observations will fail to detect
it at a statistically significant level-even though the effect actually exists.
This is strikingly illustrated by a recent medical experiment designed to
determine whether aspirin can prevent heart attacks. The study was discon-
tinued in 1987 because it was already clear the answer was yes. After six
years, the aspirin group had already suffered 45 percent fewer heart attacks
than a control group that received only placebo medication, a result that
would occur by chance less than one time out of a million (The Steering
Committee of the Physicians' Health Study Research Group, 1988). With
such impressive results, it was considered unethical to keep the control group
on placebo medication. This study was widely publicized as a major medical
breakthrough.
The pertinent point here is that the study included over 22,000 subjects.
If it were to be repeated with 3,000 subjects, a significant aspirin effect would
be unlikely to emerge; the experiment would fail to replicate. Despite its
undisputed reality and its practical importance, the aspirin effect is actually
quite weak.
Now reconsider the ganzfeld effect. If the effect actually exists and has a
true direct-hit rate of 38 percent, then statistically we should expect studies
with 30 ganzfeld sessions (the average for the 28 studies) to obtain a statis-
tically significant psi effect only about one-third of the time (Utts, 1986).
The ganzfeld effect is about four times stronger than the aspirin effect. .
In short, it is unrealistic to demand that any real effect be replicable at
any time by any competent investigator. The replication issue is more com-
plex than that, and meta-analysis is proving to be a valuable tool for dealing
with some of those complexities.
INADEQUATE CONTROLS The second major criticism of parapsychol-
ogy is that many, if not most, of the experiments have inadequate controls
and safeguards. Flawed procedures that would permit a subject to obtain the
communicated information in normal sensory fashion either inadvertently,
or through deliberate cheating, are particularly fatal. This is called the prob-
lem of sensory leakage. Inadequate procedures for randomizing (randomly se-
lecting) target stimuli are another common problem.
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CHAPTER 6 CONSCIOUSNESS AND ITS ALTERED STATES
Methodological inadequacies plague all the sciences, but the history of
parapsychology is embarrassingly full of promising results that collapsed
when the procedures were critically examined (Akers, 1984). One common
charge against parapsychology is that preliminary, poorly controlled studies
often obtain positive results but that as soon as better controls and safeguards
are introduced. the results disappear.
Once a flaw is discovered in a completed experiment, there is no persua-
sive way of arguing that the flaw did not contribute illegitimately to a posi-
tive outcome; the only remedy is to redo the experiment correctly. In a
database of several studies, however, meta-analysis can evaluate the criticism
empirically by checking to see if, in fact, the more poorly controlled studies
obtained more positive results than did the better controlled studies. If there
is a correlation between a procedural flaw and positive results across the
studies, then there is a problem. In the case of the ganzfeld database, both
critic Hyman and parapsychologist Honorton agree that flaw's of inadequate
security and possible sensory leakage do not correlate with positive results.
Hyman claimed to find a correlation between flaws of randomization and
positive results. but both Honorton's analysis and two additional analyses by
nonparapsychologists dispute his conclusior. (Harris & Rosenthal, 1988;
Saunders, 1985). Moreover, a series of 10 new studies designed to control for
flaws identified in the original database yielded results consistent with the
original set of 28 studies (Harris & Rosenthal. 1988).
FILE-DRAWER PROBLEM Suppose that each of 20 investigators inde-
pendently decides to conduct a ganzfeld study. Even if there were no genuine
ganzfeld effect. there is a reasonable probability that at least one of these
investigators would obtain a statistically significant result by pure chance.
That lucky investigator would then publish a report of the experiment, but
the other 19 investigators-all of whom obtained null results-are likely to
become discouraged, put their data into a file drawer, and move onto some-
thing more promising. As a result, the scientific community would learn
about the one successful study but have no knowledge of the 19 null studies
buried away in the file drawers. The database of known studies would thus be
seriously biased toward positive studies, and any meta-analysis of that
database would arrive at similarly biased conclusions. This is called the file-
drawer problem.
The problem is particularly tricky because it is impossible, by definition,
to know how many unknown studies are languishing in file drawers some-
where. Nevertheless, parapsychologists offer two lines of defense against the
charge that the file-drawer problem seriously compromises their database.
First, they point out that the Journal of Parapsychology actively solicits
and publishes studies that report negative findings. Moreover, the commu-
nity of parapsychologists is relatively small, and most investigators are cog-
nizant of ongoing work in the various laboratories around the world. When
conducting meta-analysis, parapsychologists actively attempt to scout out
unpublished negative studies at conventions and through their personal
networks.
But their major defense is statistical, and again meta-analysis provides an
empirical approach to the problem. By knowing the overall statistical signifi-
cance of the known database, it is possible to compute the number of studies
with null results that would have to exist in file drawers to cancel out that
significance. In the case of the ganzfeld database, there would have to be
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PSI PHENOMENA
239
over 400 unreported studies with null results-the equivalent of 12,000
ganzfeld sessions-to cancel out the statistical significance of the 28 studies
analyzed in the debate (Honorton, 1985). Not surprisingly, there is con-
sensus that the overall significance of the ganzfeld studies cannot reasonably
be explained by the file-drawer effect (Hyman & Honorton, 1986).
Rather than continuing their debate, Hyman and Honorton issued a
joint communiqué in which they set forth their areas of agreement and dis-
agreement and made a series of suggestions for the conduct of future ganzfeld
studies (Hyman & Honorton, 1986). Their debate and the subsequent dis-
cussion provide a valuable model for evaluating disputed domains of scien-
tific inquiry.
Anecdotal Evidence
In the public's mind, the evidence for psi consists primarily of personal
experiences and anecdotes. Such evidence is unpersuasive in science because
it suffers fatally from the same problems that jeopardize the experimental
evidence-nonreplicability, inadequate controls, and the file-drawer problem.
The replication problem is acute because most such evidence consists of
one-time occurrences. A woman announces a premonition that she will win
the lottery that day-and she does. You dream about an unlikely event that
actually occurs a few days later. A "psychic" correctly predicts the assassina-
tion of a public figure. Such incidents may be subjectively compelling, but
there is no way to evaluate them because they are not repeatable.
The problem of inadequate controls and safeguards is decisive because
such incidents occur under unexpected and ambiguously specified condi-
tions. There is thus no way of ruling out such alternative interpretations as
coincidence (chance), faulty memories, and deliberate deception.
L
A psychic at work in New Orleans.
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CHAPTER 6 = CONSCIOUSNESS AND ITS ALTERED STATES
Michic
Fax:
Les Bie nosopje Kinder Photographe
And finally, the file-drawer problem is also fatal. The lottery winner who
announced ahead of time that she would win is prominently featured in the
news. But the thousands of others with similar premonitions who :i not win
are never heard from; they remain in the file drawers. It is true that the
probability of this woman's winning the lottery was very low. But the critical
criterion in evaluating this case is not the probability that she would win but
the probability that any one of the thousands who thought they would win
would do so. That probability is much higher. Moreover, this woran has a
personal file drawer that contains all those past instances in which she had
similar premonitions and then lost.
The same reasoning applies to precognitive dreams (in other words,
dreams that anticipate an unlikely event that then occurs a few days later).
We tend to forget our dreams unless and until an event happens to remind us
of them. We thus have no way of evaluating how often we might have
dreamed of similar unlikely events that did not occur. We fill our database
with positive instances and unknowingly exclude the negative instances.
Perhaps the fullest file drawers belong to the so-called psychics who make
annual predictions in the tabloid newspapers. Nobody remembers the pre-
dictions that fail, but everybody remembers the occasional direct hits. In
fact, these psychics are almost always wrong ( Frasier, 1987; Tyler. 1-77).
Skepticism about Psi
If some of the experimental evidence for psi is as impressive as it seems, why
hasn't it become part of established science? Why do we continue to be
skeptical?
EXTRAORDINARY CLAIMS Most scientists believe that extracedinary
claims require extraordinary proof. A study reporting that students who
study harder get higher grades will be believed even if the study was seriously
flawed because the data accord well with our understanding of how the world
works. But the claim that two people in a ganzfeld study communicate tele-
pathically is more extraordinary; it violates our a priori beliefs about reality.
We thus rightly demand a higher measure of proof from parapsychologists
because their claims, if true, would require us to radically revise our model of
the world-something we should not undertake lightly. In this way, science
is justifiably conservative. Many open-minded nonparapsycholog:#s are
genuinely impressed by the ganzfeld studies, for example, but reasonably they
can and do ask to see more evidence before committing themselves to the
reality of psi.
.
Extraordinariness is a matter of degree. Telepathy seems less extraordi-
nary to most of us than precognition because we are already familiar with the
invisible transmission of information through space. We may not all under-
stand how television pictures get to our living rooms, but we know that they
do so. Why should telepathy seem that much more mysterious? Precogni-
tion, on the other hand, seems more extraordinary because we have no fa-
miliar phenomena in which information flows backward in time.
Extraordinariness also depends on our current model of reality. As our
understanding of the world changes, a phenomenon that seemed extraordi-
nary at an earlier time may no longer seem so-even if the quality of the
evidence has not changed. Any child who has visited a museum of natural
history has seen fragments of a meteorite. But before the nineteenth century,
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the scientific community did not believe in meteorites. Those who reported
seeing them were ridiculed-Stones falling out of the sky? Does God hurl
them at us from heaven ?- and alternative, natural explanations were ad-
vanced to explain away the evidence (Nininger, 1933).
In the twentieth century, quantum mechanics is challenging our every-
day model of reality far more radically than most people realize (Herbert,
1987). Some parapsychologists believe that modern physics will provide a
model of reality within which psi phenomena will fit comfortably and unre-
markably (Stokes, 1987), and many studies of psychokinesis are conducted
by physical scientists who explicitly base thei: theories of psi on quantum
mechanics (Jahn & Dunne, 1987). If they are right, the scientific commu-
nity may come to accept psi not because the data became more convincing
but because psi became less extraordinary.
SKEPTICISM OF PSYCHOLOGISTS : Psychologists are a particularly skep-
tical group. National polls find that about one-half of all adult Americans
believe in ESP, a figure that rises to two-thirds among Americans with col-
lege backgrounds. A survey of over 1,000 college professors found that about
66 percent believe that ESP is either an established fact or a likely possibility.
Moreover, these favorable views were expressed by a majority of professors in
the natural sciences (55 percent), the social sciences excluding psychology
(66 percent), and the arts, humanities, and education (77 percent). The
comparable figure for psychologists was 34 percent (Wagner & Monnet, 1979).
Psychologists may be more skeptical than others for several reasons.
First, claims of psi might seem more extraordinary to psychologists than to
others because it is their conceptual world that would require the most radi-
cal revisions if psi were shown to exist. Second, they are the most familiar
with past instances of extraordinary claims within psychology that turned out
to be based on flawed experimental procedures. faulty inference, or even on
fraud and deception.
Third, psychologists know that popular accounts of psychological find-
ings are frequently exaggerated. For example, the genuinely remarkable
findings from research on asymmetries in the human brain (see p. 50) have
spawned a host of pop-psychology books and media reports containing un-
substantiated claims about left-brained and right-brained persons. Irre-
sponsible reports about states of consciousness-including hypnosis and
psi-appear daily in the media. It is thus pertinent to note that when the
college professors in the survey cited above were asked to name the sources
for their beliefs about ESP, they most frequently cited reports in newspapers
and magazines.
And finally, research in cognitive and social psychology has sensitized
psychologists to the biases and shortcomings in our abilities to draw valid
inferences from our everyday experiences (see Chapter 18). This makes them
particularly skeptical of anecdotal reports of psi where, as we saw above, our
judgments are subject to many kinds of errors.
For these several reasons, then, much of the skepticism of psychologists
toward psi is well-founded. But some of it is not. As we noted earlier, some
scientists declare psi to be an impossibility and reject the legitimacy of para-
psychological inquiry-a priori judgments that we believe to be out of place
in science. Only 4 percent of the college professors in the survey declared psi
to be an impossibility-but 34 percent of the psychologists did so. Two hun-
dred years ago, these same skeptics would have been equally certain that God
does not hurl stones at us from heaven.
PSI PHENOMENA
241
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CHAPTER 6 CONSCIOUSNESS AND ITS ALTERED STATES
CHAPTER SUMMARY
1. A person's perceptions, thoughts, and feelings at any moment in time constitute
that person's consciousness. An altered state of consciousnes: is said to exis: when
mental functioning seems changed or out of the ordinary to the person experi-
encing the state. Some altered states of consciousness, such as sleep and dreams,
are experienced by everyone; others result from special circumstances, such as
meditation, hypnosis, or the use of drugs.
2. The functions of consciousness are a) monitoring ourselves and our environment
so that we are aware of what is happening within our bodies and in our suround-
ings; and b) controlling our actions so that they coordinate with events in the
outside world. Not all events that influence consciousness are at the center of
our awareness at a given moment. Memories of personal events and of the
knowledge accumulated during a lifetime that are accessible but are not cur-
rently part of one's consciousness are called preconscious memories. Even's that
affect behavior even though we are not aware of perceiving them influence
us subconsciously.
3. According to psychoanalytic theory, some emotionally painful memories and
impulses are not available to consciousness because they have been repressed-
that is, diverted to the unconscious. Unconscious thoughts and impulses influ-
ence our behavior even though they reach consciousness only in indirec ways
through dreams, irrational behavior, and slips of the tongue.
4. The notion of a divided consciousness assumes that thoughts and memories may
sometimes be dissociated, or split off, from consciousness, rather than repressed
to the unconscious. Extreme examples are cases of multiple personality, in which
two or more well-developed personalities alternate within the same individual.
5. Sleep, an altered state of consciousness, is of interest because of the rh. thms
evident in sleep schedules and in the depth of sleep. These rhythms are studied
with the aid of the electroencephalogram (EEG). Patterns of brain waves show;
four stages (depths) of sleep, plus a fifth stage characterized by rapid eye move-
ments (REMs). These stages alternate throughout the night. Dreams occu: more
often during REM sleep than during the other stages (nor .- REM sleep).
6. In 1900, Sigmund Freud proposed the most influential theory of dreams. It
attributes psychological causes to dreams, distinguishing between the manifest
and latent content of dreams and stating that dreams are washes in disguise.
7. Psychoactive drugs have long been used to alter consciousness and mood. They
include depressants, such as alcohol and tranquilizers; opiates, such as heron and
morphine; stimulants, such as amphetamines and cocaine; hallucinogens, such as
LSD and PCP; and cannabis, such as marijuana and hashish.
8. All of these drugs can produce psychological dependence (compulsive use to re-
duce anxiety), and most result in physical dependence (increased tolerance and
withdrawal symptoms) if used habitually.
9. Alcohol is an integral part of social life for many college students, but it can
create serious social, psychological, and medical problems. Prolonged heavy
drinking can lead to alcoholism, which is marked by an inability to abstain from or
a lack of control over drinking.
10. Meditation represents an effort to alter consciousness by following planned rit-
uals or exercises such as those of yoga or Zen. The result is a somewhat mystical
state in which the individual is extremely relaxed and feels divorced from the
outside world. Simple exercises combining concentration and relaxation can
help novices experience meditative states.
11. Hypnosis is a responsive state in which subjects focus their attention on the
hypnotist and the hypnotist's suggestions. Some people are more readily hypno-
tized than others, though most people show some susceptibility. Self-hypnosis
can be learned by those who are responsive to hypnosis induced by othert.
12. Characteristic hypnotic responses include enhanced or diminished control
over movements, the distortion of memory through posthypnotic amnesia age
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FURTHER READING
243
regression, and positive and negative hallucinations. The reduction of pain, as a
variety of negative hallucination, is one of the beneficial uses of hypnosis in the
treatment of burns and in obstetrics, dentistry, and surgery.
13. Theories of hypnosis have long been a source of controversy, with each explain-
ing some aspect of hypnotic behavior but none explaining all. With better
agreement on the empirical facts, the theories are gradually becoming comple-
mentary rather than antagonistic.
14. There is considerable controversy over psi, the idea that human beings can
acquire information about the world in ways that do not involve stimulation of
known sense organs or can influence physical events by purely mental means.
The phenomena of psi includes extrasensory perception (ESP) in its various forms
(telepathy, clairvoyance, precognition) and psychokinesis, movement of objects
by the mind.
15. A number of carefully controlled studies (called ganzfeld experiments) have been
conducted to evaluate ESP via telepathy. These experiments are subject to criti-
cism (replicability, inadequate controls, file-drawer problems). However, a
careful analysis of the results does not preclude the possibility of a real ESP
effect. Nevertheless, most psychologists remain skeptical about ESP and psi in
general, in part because so many past instances of extraordinary claims turned
out to be based on flawed experimental procedures, faulty inferences, or even on
fraud and deception.
Several books deal in general with the problems of consciousness and its alter-
ations, such as Baars, Cognitive Theory of Consciousness (1988); Pope and Singer
(eds.), The Stream of Consciousness (1978); and Bowers and Meichenbaum (eds.),
The Unconscious Reconsidered (1984). For philosophical/psychological discussions of
consciousness see Lycan, Consciousness (1987); Jackendoff, Consciousness and the
Computational Mind (1987); and Churchland, Matter and Consciousness (1988).
:
Problems of divided consciousness are treated in Hilgard, Divided Consciousness
(1977); Kluft (ed.), Childhood Antecedents of Multiple Personality (1985); and Braun
(ed.), Treatment of Multiple Personality Disorder (1986).
Useful books on sleep and dreams include Hobson, Sleep (1989); Horne, Why
We Sleep (1988); Hobson, The Dreaming Brain (1988); and Hauri, The Sleep Disorders
(1982).
General textbooks on drugs include Julien, A Primer of Drug Action (5th ed.,
1988); Julien, Drugs and the Body (1988); and Ray, Drugs, Society, and Human Behar-
ior (3rd ed., 1983). Drug and Alcohol Abuse (3rd ed., 1989) by Schuckit provides a
guide to diagnosis and treatment. For a thoughtful discussion of the legal and social
problems of heroin, as well as an evaluation of possible solutions, see Kaplan, The
Hardest Drug; Heroin and Public Policy (1983).
On meditative practices, see West (ed.), The Psychology of Meditation (1987);
Goleman, The Varieties of Meditative Experience (1977); or Naranjo and Ornstein, On
the Psychology of Meditation (1977). On meditation for relaxing, see Benson, The
Relaxation Response (1975). For a discussion of relaxation and mental images in ath-
letics see Syer and Connolly, Sporting Body Sporting Mind; An Athlete's Guide to
Mental Training (1984) and Butt, The Psychology of Sport (2nd ed., 1987).
There are a number of books on hypnosis. Presentations that include methods,
theories, and experimental results are E. R. Hilgard, The Experience of Hypnosis
(1968); Fromm and Shor (eds.), Hypnosis; Developments in Research and New Perspec-
tives (2nd ed., 1979); and J. R. Hilgard, Personality and Hypnosis (2nd ed., 1979).
For a review of parapsychology, see Wolman, Dale, Schmeidler, and Ullman
(eds.), Handbook of Parapsychology (1985); Frazier (ed.), Science Confronts the Para-
normal (1986); Kurtz (ed. ), A Skeptic's Handbook of Parapsychology (1985); Marks and
Kammann, The Psychology of the Psychic (1980); and Gardner, Science; Good, Bad,
and Bogus (1981).
FURTHER READING
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Physica B 151 (1988) 339-348
North-Holland, Amsterdam
TESTING SCHRODINGER'S PARADOX WITH A MICHELSON INTERFEROMETER
Evan Harris WALKER
U.S. Army Ballistic Research Laboratory, Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland, USA
E.C. MAY, S.J.P. SPOTTISWOODE and T. PIANTANIDA
SRI International, Menlo Park, California, USA
The Schrodinger paradox points out that quantum mechanics predicts a linear superposition of states even for
macroscopic objects prior to measurement. However, at the macroscopic level of ordinary objects it has not been possible
to maintain the phase correlations needed to demonstrate or disprove the reality of such a superposition of states as
opposed to the mixture of states. Without such a quantum "signature", this paradoxical prediction of quantum theory
would seem to have no testable consequences. State vector collapse in that case becomes indistinguishable from a
stochastic ensemble description.
The experiment described here provides a means for testing Schrödingers' paradox. A Michelson interferometer is used
to test for the presence of state superposition of a pair of shutters that are placed along the two optical arms of the
interferometer and driven by a beta decay source so that either the first shutter is open and the second closed or vice versa.
The shutters take on the role of the cat in the Schrodinger paradox.
The experiment that we discuss here has been carried out at SRI International. Under the conditions of the experiment.
the results remove the possibility of the existence of macroscopic superposition prior to observation.
1. Introduction
The Schrodinger paradox is among the oldest
of the puzzles surrounding the interpretation of
quantum mechanics. Like the Einstein-
Podolsky-Rosen (EPR) paradox it has engen-
dered a great deal of speculation about our basic
understanding of physical reality. Also like the
EPR paradox, Schrödinger proposed his paradox
to point out that the statistical interpretation of
quantum theory must at some level contain a
flaw, since it implies the reality of a linear super-
position of states even at the macroscopic level -
before observation. Moreover, just as in the case
of the EPR paradox, the Schrodinger paradox
has long been thought of as an untestable con-
sequence of quantum theory, since it relates to .
the state of a macrosystem just before observa-
tion, a state that we know must approach asym-
ptotically to that given by classical mechanics.
That is to say; we know that the usual interfer-
ence effects by which we distinguish the presence
of state superposition in atomic processes can be
shown to be too small to observe in the case of
macroscopic systems. But the development of
Bell's theorem showed us how to test the
paradoxical implications of quantum mechanics
that had been pointed out by Einstein, Podolsky
and Rosen in 1935. Within the limits of our
experimental setup, we have now done the same
for the Schrödinger paradox.
There are important. reasons for doing this
experiment. All of us are quite aware of the fact
that the existence of a linear superposition of
states at the macroscopic level is quite counter-
intuitive. Nevertheless, no experiment has ever
been done that has yielded results contrary to
the literal application of quantum theory. The
absence of superposition at the macrolevel prior
to observation has not been experimentally de-
monstrated - and in fact it has generally been
thought that such a test was not feasible. This
has led to the developement of various interpre-
tations of quantum mechanics having to do with
the macroscopic reality of quantum states.
A second reason for carrying out an experi-
ment of the present type is that it represents an
efficient way to search for the nature of and
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E.H. Walker et al. / Testing Schrodinger's paradox with Michelson interferometer
cause of state vector collapse. We all know that
the machinery that effects state vector collapse,
whatever that phrase actually means, must be
somewhere between the thing observed and the
observer. Indeed, this observer-observed dich-
otomy has become a rather commonly used
phrase in discussions of the measurement prob-
lem. But the gap between these two covers a lot
of territory. Moreover, we also know that the
perponderant opinion is that the transition from
the pure state to the mixed state probably takes
place at a level above that of the largest coher-
ence that exists for the system being observed.
But to focus all our attention at that level at this
stage of the game when we still know so little
about what causes state vector collapse may not
be an efficient way to explore the physics invol-
ved. It may be a more efficient strategy to carry
out experiments looking for the existence of
state superposition at various levels between the
atomic level and that of the macroscopic world.
Most experiments in this field are designed to
examine a cut in von Neumann's chain between
the observer and the observed just above the
level of the basic atomic interaction itself. Our
experiment goes to the opposite extreme to look
for state superposition immediately prior to ob-
servation at the macroscopic level.
By doing this we are able to deal experimen-
tally with what has come to be a quite wide-
spread and popular conception of what quantum
mechanics has to say about physical reality. The
Schrödinger paradox has been used to imply an
actual "observer-observed" dichotomy exists as
a fundamental aspect of physical reality, and to
imply that the observer creates his own reality in
the act of observation. It has been used to raise
such questions as the "Wigner's friend" paradox
and even to promote speculation that by our
observation we may be creating the Big Bang of
the universe. If our experiment does nothing
more than lay such speculation to rest it will
have been more than worthwhile.
At the other extreme, however, we should
recognize the possibility that it is through this
doorway that some phenomena, heretofore not
dealt with by science, may be approached. The
existence of consciousness as a phenomenology
that lies beyond what we as physicists mean by
distance, mass, electric charge and the other
constructs of our physical equations cannot be
denied. Consciousness surely arises out of some-
thing that goes on in the brain of each of us, but
yet lies beyond its usual description as a physical
object no matter how complex. It may be that if
quantum mechanics does require the observer as
an essential and irreducible aspect of physical
reality, then we may find its proper scientific
description to be bound up with an understand-
ing of how state vector collapse comes about.
Whatever the likelihood that we will find evi-
dence for this in the experiment we discuss here,
it would seem to be worth the effort to look.
The Schrödinger paradox arises because the
prescription for writing the general state vector
for any system requires that one can sum all
possible component states for an unmeasured or
unobserved system irrespective of the scale of
the system to be observed. As a consequence
according to Schrödinger, a cat placed in a box
rigged to release a tranquilizer (out of difference
to the SPCA - and this writer) if a beta decay
occurs in a specified interval of time, or not if the
beta decay does not occur, must be represented
by a state vector that is the sum of both possible
outcomes before a measurement is made on the
system. Using Dirac's notation this would give
for the combined state
(4) =(41) +(45),
(1)
where the subscripts A and S refer to the awake
and sleep states respectively
Although this is
generally regarded to be a preposterous conclu-
sion, there exist no experiments that violate this
or any of the basic premises of quantum mech-
anics. A definitive experiment that would de-
monstrate that such a superposition of states
does not exist would be a significant if not a
surprising achievement. On the other hand, since
there exist no examples of a violation of the
principles of quantum mechanics, it must be
considered a viable possibility that quantum
mechanics is valid here as well.
It is usually thought that one of two possible
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E.H. Walker et al. / Testing Schrodinger's paradox with Michelson interferometer
341
influences causes state vector collapse. One of
these is that something happens during the trans-
ition from the microscopic realm of the system to
the macroscopic realm. Efforts so far to formu-
late such a suggestion have been unsuccessful -
in fact all such proposals that have been reduced
to a mathematical prescription have proved to be
wrong because they have predicted results at
variances with experiments already conducted.
Of course we know that on measurement state
vector collapse will occur - or will have occur-
red. If we open the box, we will see the cat
either awake or asleep. Some few scientists have
suggested that the act of conscious observation
causes state vector collapse. Wigner has pointed
out that such is a peculiar implication of quan-
tum mechanics, but he has made no effort to
formulate what this would mean, if indeed he
takes this possibility seriously. Wheeler has poin-
ted out that Bohr specifically "rejected the term
'consciousness' in describing the elemental act of
observation ... he emphasized that no measure-
ment is a measurement until it is 'brought to a
close by an irreversible act of amplification and
MIRROR
137
22
0
AMPLIFIER
& PULSE
SHAPER
NAL
SCINTILLATOR
BISTABLE MULTIVIBRATOR
A DELAY CIRCIUTS
80 MHZ
RF
SWITCH
BOMHZ
OSCILLATOR
80 MHI
RF
SWITCH
ACOUSTO-
OPTIC
MODULATOR
He - Ne LASER
SOURCE
BEAM
ATTENUATOR
=
BEAM
SPLITTER
ACOUSTO-
OPTIC
MODULATOR
MIRROR
-
PHOTOGRAPHIC
EMULSION
Fig. 1. Experimental arrangement for testing the Schrödinger paradox using a Michelson interferometer. The cesium 137 gamma
source provides the random quantum event that triggers the bistable multivibrator (flip-flop) circuit controlling the AO cells so
that in any given state one cell is always on while the other is always off.
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CESIUM
SOURCE

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E.H. Walker et al. / Testing Schrodinger's paradox with Michelson interferometer
until the result is 'communicable in plain lan-
guage.'" These ideas have not been reduced to
mathematical formulation, have not been de-
rived from the Schrödinger equation (note that
the Ehrenfest theorem does not cover the case
considered here; it does not show that any reduc-
tion in the number of states exists in the transi-
tion to the microscopic, only that certain kinds of
macroscopic processes approach the classical in
the limit), and the latter prescription is clearly
anthropomorphic - nothing more.
We have carried out an experiment that not
only tests the Schrödinger paradox, but has the
potential through modest modifications to range
the entire gamut of possibilities in order to estab-
Lish exactly where and how state vector collapse
takes place. The experiment makes use of
Michelson interferometer (a Mach-Zehnder
interferometer could equally be used) in which
two shutters, acousto-optical (AO) cells, are
placed one in each arm of the interferometer.
These AO cells are driven by a quantum mech-
anical process, specifically, a cesium 137 gamma
source driving a bistable multivibrator (flip-flop)
circuit in such a way as to gate one or the other
of the two possible paths in the interferometer.
Thus, knowing the state of the quantum process
driving the AO cells we would know that either
path 1 was open while path 2 was closed or vice
versa. Since we do not know the quantum state
driving the AO cells, however, the system must
be in both states - that is, in the linear superposi-
tion of states. Fig. 1 shows the layout of the
experiment.
Although we have replaced Schrodinger's cat
with the more manageable AO cells, it is easy to
see - as in figs. 2 and 3 - that this is a realization
of the Schrödinger paradox
in which we have
MIRROR
MIRROR
C
He-Ne LASER
SOURCE
BEAM
SPLITTER
PHOTOGRAPHIC
EMULSION
Fig. 2. Schematic showing that the experiment of fig. 1 is in fact a variant of the Schrodinger paradox arrangement. Here the cat
in Schrodinger's thought experiment is shown awake and sitting in the way of arm 1 of the interferometer.
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1
MIRROR
Y
He-Ne LASER
SOURCE
BEAY
SPLITTER
PHOTOGRAPHIC
EMULSION
..
Fig. 3. In this figure we see the state in which the beta source has caused the release of the tranquilizer gas - causing the cat to
fall asleep in the way of arm 2 of the interferometer.
added an interferometer to test the existence of a
superposition of pure states or simply the pres-
ence of one or the other unknown state of a
mixture of states. Now let us look at the equa-
tions appropriate to the problem.
2. The cat and the correlation of states
Let us now look at why we should not ordi-
narily expect to observe any effect with large
objects in the first place. The system described
by |¥) =[41)+ [42) for which an observation
operator A(x) in configuration space would yield
·A(1) = B1(41) and A|42) = B2/4/2) yields for an
observation probability p,
= (B; (4, 1+B=(42) (B1 \41)+ B2/42})
= |B|2+|B2/2 + B; B2 {\2)
+ B2 B, (42|41).
(2)
Because our object is large however, the phase
factors entering into y, and 42 will vary rapidly.
so rapidly that the terms (4, 142) and (42 (41)
are for macroscopic objects zero. As a con-
sequence, Eq. (2) reduces to p = |B|2 + |B2/2
which is indistinguishable from the classical
probabilities for the system.
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E.H. Walker et al. / Testing Schrodinger's paradox with Michelson interferometer
3. Michelson interferometer
Assume the arrangement shown in fig. 1, but
in which both AO cells are always on. This gives
us then the standard Michelson interferometer
with a CW laser source. Using the subscripts 1
and 2 for the two arms of the device, we write
for the state of a single photon (4%)= [ø1}+
(02). For a configuration space photon absorp-
tion operator A(x) satisfying A(x)(1 ) = B1 (1)
and A(x)|+2) = #2|+2) obviously we will have
for the probability Po, Po = (v | A'A|4%), so that
+ B2B(2),
(3)
which is formally what we found in eq. (2).
However, for photons in an interferometer,
terms like (+1 |d2) contribute significantly. We
will return to this later. The point here, how-
ever, is that it is the presence of these cross
terms that lead to the interference effects we
observe with an interferometer.
Since we are using a constant wave (CW) laser
for our source, the photon is represented by
Ø1= a, e‘x1-wr;)
(4)
where x1 is the path length for arm number one
in the interferometer, t, is the time of the mea-
surement, k and w are the wave number and
angular frequency and a, is a normalization fac-
tor. If ($,|+2) and (+2 |+1) are averaged over
complete cycles of x1, x2, t1 and 12, these terms
will vanish. With equivalent paths for the two
arms of the interferometer, |B|2 = |B2/2 = B2 so
that we can simply define po = 282.
4. Michelson interferometer test of the
Schrodinger paradox
Now let us look at the the complete problem
as shown in fig. 1 in which the state of the
quantum mechanical system depends on the cou-
pled gamma decay-photon system. The gates,
G, are functions of a parameter B of the gamma
decay and of the arm of the interferometer i
which the gate is located, while the photon re
presentation as before depends on the arm of ...:
interferometer, position and time t. We have
general |¥) =(G) @|+). This gives us
(¥)=G,(B, arm 1)|¢, (x1, t))
+ G2(B, arm 2)|¢2(x2, t)) ..
(5
The parameter B has two states which we de e
nate "on" (or "+") and "off" (or "-", for art.
number one of the interferometer and for th
second arm, "off" (or "-") and "on" for "
respectively, as determined by the logis of
switching circuit. Eq. (5) becomes
1
(4)=G(1)+ G2|02) + Gi(1 ) + GP
-
As before we write A(x)(1) = Blø,). etc. ?
therefore have
AV} =G+ Blø, > + G2 B2|02> + G; E. |0,>
+ G2 B2(2).
The detection probability function p1 is then
PI= (YAAY1)
={(G;B,¢,+G2B2+2+ G]ß„¢,
+G±B2¢2)(G;Bø,+GB2¢2
+ GTB1+1 + GB2+2)),
which gives
:
+\B1|2G ;* G]+₿ß2G ;* G*(¢;\02)
+₿ß,GĘ*G*(¢2|¢1) +|B2|2|G]2
+B¿ß1G2*G;(¢2|Ø1)+|B2|2G2ªG±
+|B,|2G ;* G++₿ß2G ;* GĘ(ø‚|02)
+B2B,G2*G*(2)+||2|2G2*G2
+B&B,G2*G;(02|0}} +|2|2|G=12. (
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Since the component states such as d, and $2 in
the linear superposition are the same functions
as for the single states alone, we have simply
that GT = GT = G; * = G: * = 0, and |G+|2 =
[G]2 = 1. Eq. (9) reduces to
P1=|B|2 + |2|2+B;B2(0: 02)
+ B2B, (0,0).
(10)
which is the same result as in eq. (3) for the
Michelson (or Mach-Zehnder) interferometer
result without AO cells.
5. Representation of the photon
Since the laser is not pulsed and since we can
assume the switching rate of the AO cells to be
much lower than the frequency of the photon,
we can write simply
A$1 = B,c, e(kx1-w)
(11)
and
A$2= B2ª2 e1(kx2-wI)
-
(12)
where we have introduced the factors a, and @2
as normalization factors for the particular condi-
tions of the experimental arrangement and de-
tection interval. For essentially identical arms in
the interferometer, B,c1 = B202, so that we can
write
P=¥|AA|¥>'
= x2 2Ax +
1
11+Ar
e
ik(12 -* il dxí
*
!
X2+Ax
.
!
+
1
X2
eik(x)-x) dx;].
(13)
where Ax is the thickness of the photographic
film layer and where we have incorporated the
time interval of the measurement in our normali-
zation factor a. The primes indicate that the
probabilities represent a measurement ove: a
time that is long with respect to the photon
frequency. Of course, for thin films we have
simply
Pó= a2(2+1(x2 -* 1)+ eik(x)-×2)].
(:4)
Therefore, in the absence of any formalism that
would prescribe state vector collapse below the
macroscopic level, our calculation predicts the
presence of interference fringes in the present
experiment despite its counterintuitiveness.
Therefore, a failure to detect a robust interier-
ence pattem will show that the experimental
results. are in disagreement with our theoretical
prediction.
The converse outcome holds equal !; remark-
able significance. The occurrence of interference
fringes would mean that the linear superposition
of state holds before observation even on the
macroscopic scale.
6. The apparatus
The apparatus consists of a simple Michelson
interferometer with optical switches in the relay
arms. A schematic diagram of the arrangement is
shown in fig. 1.
The polarized output beam from a 6:28 Å CW
helium-neon single mode laser is attenuated by
a factor of 10-9 so as to produce a beam of
1.3 x 10-14 W, approximately 4.17 x 10' photons
per second intensity. The attenuation is achieved
by a combination of the deflected beam intensity
reduction, neutral density filters and a polarizer.
The light incident on the beam splitting is polar-
ized with the electric vector perpendicular to the
plane of fig. 1.
The light is passed to a beam splitter which
produces beams of nearly equal intensity. Each
arm of the interferometer contains an acous:o-
optical modulator consisting of a TeO2 crystal
coupled to an ultrasonic piezoelectric transducer.
When no input voltage is applied to the trans-
ducer, light travels through the crystal unde-
viated. With an 80 MHz rf signal applied to the
transducer, the resulting acoustic waves in the
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E.H. Walker et al. / Testing Schrodinger's paradox with Michelson interferometer
crystal diffract the light beam by twice the Bragg
angle, which is 5.9 mrad for the devices used. It
is this diffracted beam that is used to obtain
interference in the interferometer. Turning the
transducer off turns the AO cell off. These
acousto-optical devices exhibit a rise and fall
time of 120 ns when switching a beam of
0.75 mm diameter. Most of the power (80%)
goes into the first-order diffracted beam, which
leaves the device at an angle of 11.8 mrad to the
zero-order undiffracted beam, while smaller
amounts of power are deposited into the higher
orders. As stated, it is the first-order diffracted
beams that are reflected off the interferometer
mirrors and back through the modulators where
a second diffraction occurs. Only the first-order
beams are shown in fig. 1 for clarity. The zero-
order and higher-order diffacted light is absor-
bed by various beam stops. Thus the acousto-
optical modulators act to chop the light in the
interferometer
arms with
a contrast ratio
adequate to assure that none of the photons
reaching the film will have passed through an
"off" shutter.
The switched beams from the interierometer
arms are recombinated in the beam splitter and
are deposited on a high speed photographic
emulsion. The beam divergence of the laser and
the geometry of the apparatus are chosen so as
to result in a 2 mm diameter image on the film
with approximately four linear fringes visible in
this area.
The acousto-optical modulators are driven by
switched 80 MHz oscillators which are in turn
gated on and off by the outputs of a bistable
multivibrator, or flip-flop, so that one modulator
is on while the other is of .. A delay of 150 ns is
introduced into the gating signals applied to the
rf drivers so that one shutter does not start to
open until the other has closed, thus ensuring
that at no time are both interferometer arms
open. The flip-flop is clocked by pulses from a
photomultiplier, which have been suitably am-
plified, shaped and discriminated. The photo-
multiplier looks into a sodium iodide scintillator
crystal. With a cesium 137 source of approxi-
mately 30 uCi placed 2 cm from the scintillator,
the pulses which clock the flip-flop have a mean
repetition rate of 118 kHz.
With an average photon rate of 4.17 x 104 s-1
emerging from the attenuator, there is an aver-
age of less than one photon in each arm of the
1
-
Fig. 4. Photograph of the laboratory layout.
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E.H. Walker et al. ! Testing Schrodinger's paradox with Michelson interferometer
interferometer during each period for which the
acousto-optic modulator in the arm is open. The
resulting low intensity image is recorded on
Kodak 2415 technical pan film hypersensitised in
forming gas prior to exposure. A high speed
Polaroid film has also been used. A photograph
of the laboratory setup is shown in fig. 4.
7. Test runs
In order to verify that the apparatus properly
discriminates between the two possible 'ex-
perimental outcomes, test runs were made with
the logic circuit connected so that both shutters
would either be on or off to make certain that
the apparatus could give interference patterns.
This run gives us a reference interference pattern
that we can use to judge the results of our
experimental run. The average shutter rate in
this case was the same as for the final experimen-
tal run. The resulting photograph is shown in
Fig. 5.
8. Experimental results and conclusions
Fig. 6 shows the experimental outcome fo: :
photon rate of 4.17 x 104 s"1. The figure speaks
for itself. Thee is no interference pattern prese -:
in the figure. The figure clearly shows the at :-
ence of the interference fringes predicted by o.
formalism.
This absence of interference fringes in th:
experimental run is a result that, although expe :-
ted on the basis of commonsense, we neverth :.
less interpret as a prima facie case that quanter
theory may be violated. The result is importa ::
because it provides a starting point for us in o .:
search for the cause and experimental meaning
of state vector collapse. These results are als:
important because they are related to questio ::
about the Schrödinger paradox.
We do not yet know just how and where stars
vector collapse occurs - nor do we know why:
this even means. Our experiment does not sove
or remove the measurement problem. If any-
thing, it deepens the problem. We must find o ::
.
Fig. 5. Test run in which both shutters are either open or closed at the same time to assure a conventional interference patten
Photon rate was 4.17 x 10's"", less than one photon in each arm of the apparatus at any moment.
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E.H. Walker et al. / Testing Schrodinger's paradox with Michelson interferometer
Fig. 6. Final experimental run. No interference pattern was obtained. This Egure clearly shows the absence of interference.
the mechanics of state vector collapse. The pre-
sent experiment provides a basic plan for future
experiments to search out how state vector col-
lapse occurs and to give us a clear understanding
of just what state vector collapse entails. It gives
us the tool we need to find just where to cut von
Neumann's chain.
Acknowledgements
We wish to acknowledge the helpful discus-
sions about this experiment held with C.O.
Alley, Y.H. Shih, and George Hinds of the
Department of Physics of the University of
Maryland.
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15
Parapsychological Research: A Tutorial
Review and Critical Appraisal
RAY HYMAN
Invited Paper
Beginning in the 1850: some eminent scientists such as Robert
Hare, Alfred Russel Wallace, and Sir William Crookes investigated
the claims of spiritualis: mediums and believed that they had
demonstrated scientifically the existence of psychic phenomena.
Critics, without examining the evidence, dismissed the claims out
of hand and charged the offending scientists with gross incom-
petence or with fraud. Encouraged by the work of these early
psychical researchers, a group of scholars founded the Society for
Psychical Research in London in 1882. In spite of this beginning,
psychical research remained an amateur and uncoordinated set of
activities until the publication of Rhine's Extra-Sensory Perception
in 1934. The card-guessing experiments featured in Rhine's book
became the model for experimental parapsychology for the next 40
years. Since the 1970s Thine's paradigm has been replaced by a
number of research programs such as remote viewing, the
Ganzfield experiment, and psychokinetic investigations using Ran-
dom Event Generators. The present paper examines examples of
what were considered. ir their time, the best examples of scientific
evidence for paranormal phenomena. Each generation of para-
psychologists has set aside the work of earlier generations and
offered up as sufficient scientific evidence the best work of its own
day. As a result, parapsychology lacks not only lawful and repli-
cable phenomena, but also a tradition of cumulative evidence. Two
systematic evaluations of the best contemporary research programs
in parapsychology revealed that the experiments departed from the
minimal standards of adequate randomization of targets, ap-
propriate use of statistical inference, and controls against sensory
leakage. The historical survey in this paper suggests that the same
themes and inadequacies that haunted the very earliest investiga-
tions still characterize contemporary parapsychological research.
Both proponents and critics throughout the 130 years of the con-
troversy over psychical research, have deviated greatly from those
standards of fair-play and rationality that we would like to believe
characterizes the best scientific arguments. Some encouraging signs
for progress towards resolving some of the issues raised by the
controversy have recently appeared. The criticism of the para-
psychological claims is becoming more informed and constructive.
Many younger parapsychologists have been working for higher
standards within their field. The best lines of systematic research in
parapsychology are not of sufficient quality to be put before the
scrutiny of the rest of the scientific community. However, with the
recent increase in constructive criticism and with the growing
awareness within the parapsychological community that it needs to
specify minimal standards and set its own house in order, there is
hope that in the near future either the parapsychologists will fail to
find evidence for psi or will be ready to challenge the scientific
community with the son of evidence that it cannot ignore.
Manuscript received January 25, 1985; revised August 21, 1985.
The author is with the Psychology Department, University of
Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403, USA.
INTRODUCTION
Robert Jahn, Dean of the School of Engineering and
Applied Science at Princeton University, can be taken as a
representative example of what happens when an eminen:
and established scientist takes the time to carefully examine
the evidence for paranormal phenomena. About seven year:
ago, an undergraduate requested him to supervise her in-
vestigation of psychic phenomena [1].
Although I had to previous experience, professional or
personal, with this subject, for a variety of pedag:gica
reasons I agreed, and together we mapped a tentative schol-
arly path, involving a literature search, visits to appropriate
laboratories and professional meetings, and the design con-
struction, and operation of simple experiments. My nitia
oversight role in this project led to a degree of persona:
involvement with it, and that to a growing intellectua:
bemusement, to the extent that by the time this studen:
graduated. I was persuaded that this, was a legitimate field
for a high techrologist to study and that I would enjoy
doing so.
As a result of his own survey of the field as well as t. :
own initial experiments in parapsychology, Jahn conclude:
that [1]:
once the illegitimate research and invalid criticism have
been set aside, the remaining accumulated evidence of
psychic phenomena comprises an array of experimental ob-
servations, obtained under reasonable protocols in a variety
of scholarly disciplines, which compound to a philoscohical
dilemma. On the one hand, effects inexplicable in terms of
established scientific theory, yet having numerous common
characteristics, are frequently and widely observed; on the
other hand, these effects have so far proven qualitatively
and quantitatively irreplicable, in the strict scientific sense.
and appear to be sensitive to a variety of psychological and
environmental factors that are difficult to specify, let alone
control.
Jahn, like many of his predecessors who took a serious
look at the evidence for the paranormal, finds the phenor-
ena to be erratic, evasive, and ephemeral. Indeed, he admit
that when judged according to strict scientific standards
the evidence for the actual existence of the phenomena E
not "fully persuasive." But he is intrigued. Like his prede
cessors, he is optimistic that with the right application or
technology and scientific ingenuity the phenomera can be
captured and made lawful.
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This is one of a number of justifiable reactions one can
have as a result of fairly examining the case for psychical
research. JaApprovedgFor Release 2003/94Ron
the possibility that careful and diligent investigation will
bring some lawfulness to this unruly area of inquiry. Jahn's
research into anomalous phenomena began over seven
years ago, but it will be several more years before we know
whether it has managed to progress much beyond previous
attempts to bring scientific order into the field.
..
During the 130 year history of psychical research many
other scholars and scientists initiated investigations of psy-
chic phenomena with equally high hopes of taming the
phenomena. One was the philosopher Henry Sidgwick who
was the first president of the Society of Psychical Research
founded in 1882. According to William James, Sidgwick and
tis colleagues "hoped that if the material were treated
i gorously and, as far as possible, experimentally, objective
truth would be elicited, and the subject rescued from
sentimentalism on the one side and dogmatizing ignorance
on the other. Like all founders, Sidgwick hoped for a certain
promptitude of result; and I heard him sav, the year before
his death, that if anyone had told him at the outset that
after twenty years he would be in the same identical state
of doubt and balance that he started with, he would have
ceemed the prophecy incredible. It appeared impossible
that the amount of handling evidence should bring so little
inality of decision" [2].
James, who made this observation in his last article on
psychical research in 1909, continued as follows [2]:
My own experience has been similar to Sidgwick's. For
twenty-five years I have been in touch with the literature of
psychical research, and have had acquaintance with numer-
ous "researchers." I have also spent a good many hours
(though far fewer than I ought to have spent) in witnessing
(or trying to witness) phenomena. Yet I am theoretically no
"further" than I was at the beginning; and I confess that at
times I have been tempted to believe that the Creator has
eternally intended this department of nature to remain baf-
fling, to prompt our curiosities and hopes and suspicions all
in equal measure, so that, although ghosts and clairvoyances,
and raps and messages from spirits, are always seeming to
exist and can never be fully explained away, they also can
never be susceptible of full corroboration.
The peculiarity of the case is just that there are so many
sources of possible deception in most of the observations
that the whole lot of them may be worthless, and yet that in
comparatively few cases can aught more fatal than this
vague general possibility of error be pleaded against the
record. Science, meanwhile needs something more than
bare possibilities to build upon; so your genuinely scientific
inquirer-I don't mean your ignoramous "scientist"-has to
remain unsatisfied.
Some 67 years after James' final word on the matter, the
philosopher Antony Flew summed up his 25 years of inter-
est in parapsychology with remarkably similar sentiments
[3]:
My long-out-of-print first book was entitled, perhaps too
rashly, A New Approach to Psychical Research ... . When I
reviewed the evidential situation at that time it seemed to
me that there was too much evidence for one to dismiss.
Honesty required some sort of continuing interest, even if a
distant interest. On the other hand, it seemed to me then
that there was no such thing as a reliably repeatable phe-
nomenon in the area of parapsychology and that there was
really almost nothing positive that could be pointed to with
assurance. The really definite and decisive pieces of work
seemed to be uniformly negative in their outcome.
It is most depressing to have to say that the general situation
a quarter of a cf
n' later still seems to me to be very much
: CIA-RDP96-200789R003100030801- fumer work has been
done. Perhaps more has been done in this latest period than
in the whole previous history of the subject .. Nevertheless,
there is still no reliably repeatable phenomenon no particu-
lar solid-rock positive cases. And yet there still is clearly too
much there for us to dismiss the whole Business
Sidgwick was assessing the first St years of psychical
research. James was evaluating the same period with another
ten years or so added. Flew based hs assessment on an
additional 67 years of inquiry. Yet, all three agree that they
could detect no progress. In each case afte: : quarter of a
century of personal involvement, the investigator found the
evidence for the paranormal just as inconclusive as it had
been at the beginning. James openly concedes that all the
claimed phenomena might be the result of self-deception
or fraud. Yet he, and the other two philosophers, cannot
quite shake the conviction that, despite all this inconclu-
siveness, "there might be something there .. "
Over this same span of history, the critics have con-
sistently insisted that "there is nothing there." All the
alleged phenomena of telepathy, clainoyance psychokine-
sis, levitation, spirit materialization, and premonitions can
be accounted for in terms of frauc self-celusion, and
simple gullibility. The proponents have naturally resented
such dismissals of their claims. They tave argued that the
critics have not fairly examined the evidence. They have
accused the critics of attacking the weakes: evidence and
of ignoring the stronger and better supportes evidence in
favor of the paranormal.
Unfortunately, as any reading of the histon of psychical
research quickly reveals, the psychical researchers are cor-
rect in their appraisal of their critics. Too often, the major
critics have attacked strawmen and have not cealt with the
actual claims and evidence put forth sy the more serious
. researchers. The fact that most of the criticism of the
psychical research has been irrelevant and unfair, however,
does not necessarily mean that the psychical researchers
have a convincing case.
Indeed, the message that we get from Sidgwick, James,
Flew, and Jahn is that the evidential base for psychic claims
is very shaky at best. At most, these scholars, after carefully
weighing all the evidence available to them, are claiming
only that they cannot help feeling that, despite the incon-
sistencies and nonlawfulness of the data, tha: "there must
be something there."
As will be discussed later in this paper, both the critics
and the proponents subscribe to what : refer to as the False
Dichotomy. When a scientist or scholar, after investigating
possible psychic phenomena, concludes that the phenom-
ena are real, the assumption is that either this conclusion is
justified or he is delinquent in some serious way-being
either incompetent or subject to some pathology. When
the critic denies that the claim is justified, the proponent
feels that his integrity or competence is being challenged.
And the critic, sharing in this assumption, feels that he must
show that the claimant is incompetent, gullible, or deficient
in some serious way [4].
I consider this a False Dichotomy because competent and
honest investigators can make serious judgmental errors
when investigating new phenomena. Competence and ex-
pertise in any given field of endeavor is bounded. Cognitive
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how thinking is guided by conceptual frameworks and
paradigms within which the thinker operates. Successful
scientific thinking, for example, is not successful because it
operates according to abstract, formal rules of evidence.
Rather, it succeeds because the thinker is guided by the
often implicit rules and procedures inherent within the
specific content and practices of the narrow field of special-
ization within which the problem is being pursued. These
"heuristics" or guidelines for successful thinking are not
foolproof and under changed circumstances they can trap
the thinker into erroneous convictions. In other words,
competence in a given scholarly or scientific discipline and
high intelligence are no barriers to becoming trapped into
asse:ting and defending erroneous positions.
In this paper, I agree with Sidgwick, James, Flew, and
Jahn in the most general sense that "something" is indeed
going on. However, I do not see any need to assume that
this "something" has anything to do with the paranormal.
I think we should not lightly dismiss the fact that for 130
years some of our best scholars and scientists have seriously
carried out psychical research and have become convinced
that they have demonstrated the existence of a "psychic
force" or a supernatural realm occupied by intelligent and
superior beings. As far as I can tell, these proponents were
competent scholars, sane, and highly intelligent. They made
every apparent effort to employ what they believed to be
objective and scientific standards in observing, recording,
and reporting their findings.
Yet, as I will argue, contrary to Jahn's assessment, the
total accumulation of 130 year's worth of psychical investi-
gation has not produced any consistent evidence for
paranormality that can withstand acceptable scientific
scrutiny. What should be interesting for the scientific estab-
lishment is not that there is a case to be made for psychic
phenomena, but rather that the majority of scientists who
decided to seriously investigate believed that they had
made such a case. How can it be that so many outstanding
scientists, including several Nobel Prize winners, have con-
vinced themselves that they have obtained solid, scientific
evidence for paranormal phenomena?
If they are wrong, what has made them wrong? Does this
suggest weaknesses or limitations of scientific method and
training? And if these investigators have not actually en-
countered psychic phenomena, what is it that they have
discovered?
I am not sure that I can provide satisfactory answers to
these questions. But I believe that it will help to look at
some selected cases in which investigators believed that
they had obtained adequate scientific evidence for the
reality of psychic phenomena. I will start at the beginning
by describing the sort of evidence that convinced the first
scientists who took psychical claims seriously. Even some
contemporary parapsychologists believe these early scien-
tists may have been wrong, but their cases are still worth
examining because in them we will find many of the same
issues and problems that characterize contemporary para-
psychological research. These early psychic investigators
tested spiritualistic mediums who were noted for their
ability to produce powerful psychic phenomena such as
levitations, materializations, and other physical feats.
Psychical research became transformed into what is now
psychologists, historians of science, and sociologists of
knowledge haveApproved For Release 2003904/18 : CIA RISP96 00789R003 f8db3600" shifted, after the fast
half century of investigation, to the study of extrasensory
perception and psychokinesis in ordinary individuals by
means of standardized testing materials and procedures. 1
will examine what was, at the time, considered to be ne
most rigorous and successful application of this form of
parapsychological research-the now notorious investiga-
tions by Soal on Shackleton and Mrs. Stewart. Again, 17e
purpose is not to beat a dead horse but to abstract cu:
principles and issues that still haunt contemporary para-
psychology.
The card-guessing experiments begun by Rhine in :ne
1930s established the paradigm which dominated para-
psychology for the next 40 years. New technology and
interest in altered states resulted in departures from Rhine's
paradigm beginning about 1970. Experiments with Random
Event Generators, Remote Viewing, and the Ganzfeld tech-
nique have been the strongest contenders for providing
parapsychology with its long-sought-for repeatable experi-
ment. I will argue that a fair and objective assessment o:
this latest work strongly suggests that, like its predecessors.
it still does not stand up to critical scrutiny.
SCIENTISTS AND PSYCHICS
The first major scientist to test experimentally a psychic
.
claim was Michael Faraday in 1853. As will be describec :r.
more detail in the next section, Faraday concluded that "ne
phenomena he had investigated, table-turning. had a ror-
mal explanation. Robert Hare, a major American chemis: 2:
first agreed with Faraday's conclusion. But, then, after per-
sonal investigations of his own, changed his mind, inc
openly supported the claims of spiritualistic mediums A
decade later, Alfred Russel Wallace, the cofounder with
Darwin of the theory of evolution by natural selection, inc
Sir William Crookes, the discoverer of thallium, astounsec
their scientific colleagues by openly endorsing paranorma
claims. Wallace and Crookes, as had Hare, believed :ha:
their own inquiries had established scientific proof to sco-
port their paranormal claims.
Hare, Wallace, and Crookes were the first of a contir Ja
succession of eminent scientists who have endossec
paranormal claims as a result of their experimental tests of
alleged psychics. These scientists have established a tradi-
tion which has played a major role in the development of
psychical research. The first half-century of psychical re-
search consisted mainly of testing paranormal claims within
this tradition. Beginning in the 1930s a second approach
experimental investigations according to standard protocols
and using unselected subjects, became the dominant ap-
proach under the name of parapsychology. Today para-
psychology includes both approaches.
In the first half of the present paper, I will focus on the
first approach. The research of Sir William Crookes wil be
used as an example of this approach. In the second half of
the paper, I will deal with the second approach. Again, I
will use the research of a single investigator to bring out the
more general issues and problems with the field of para-
psychology. In both parts of the paper I will also brefl.
mention other investigators and lines of research which
also bring out the same themes illustrated by the more
detailed examples. Finally, I will briefly look at the contem-
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HYMAN: PARAPSYCHOLOGICAL RESEARCH
825

porary situation in parapsychology to argue that the con-
it to move to the left. "But when expectation was allowed
haunted the earlier investigation RDP60078938003008_direction of the probable
still persist. A
TABLE-TURNING AND PSYCHICAL RESEARCH
Modern spiritualism began when unaccountable raps
were heard in the presence of two teen-age girls, Margaret
and Kate Fox, in 1848. By using a code, the girls' mother
was able 10 converse with the raps and concluded that they
originated from the spirit of a peddler who had been
murdered in the very house in which the fox family then
lived. Word of this miraculous communication spread
quickly and soon a variety of means for communicating
with the unseen spirits via "the spiritual telegraph" were
developed in the United States and then spread to Europe.
The individuals through whom the spirits produced their
phenomena and communicated with mortals were called
mediums. The mediums, at first, displayed phenomena such
as rapping sounds, movements of tables and objects, play-
ing of musical instruments by unseen agencies, and the oc-
currence of strange lights in the dark. Later, more elaborate
phenomena were produced such as the levitation of ob-
jects or the medium; the disappearance or appearance of
objects; the materialization of hands, faces, or even of
complete spirit forms; spirit paintings and photographs; and
written communications from the spirit world [5], [6].
By the early 1850s, table-turning (also called table-tilting
or table-rapping) had become the rage both in the United
States and in Europe. A group of individuals, usually called
"sitters," would arrange themselves around a table with
their hands resting flat upon the table-top. After an ex-
tended period of waiting a rap would be heard or the table
would tilt up on one leg. Sometimes the table would sway
and begin moving about the room, dragging the sitters
along. On some occasions, sitters would .claim that the
table actually levitated off the floor under the conditions in
which all hands were above the table. Reports even cir-
culated that sometimes the table levitated when no hands
were touching it. Table-turning was especially popular be-
cause it could occur with or without the presence of an
acknowledged medium. Any group of individuals could get
together and attempt to produce the phenomenon in the
privacy of their own living room.
Table-turning plays an important role in the history of
psychical research because it was what first attracted the
attention of serious scientists to alleged paranormal phe-
nomena [6]. The phenomenon had become so widespread
in England by the summer of 1853 that several scientists
decided to look into it. Although the prevailing explanation
for the table's movements favored the agency of spirits,
other explanations at the time were electricity, magnetism,
"attraction," Reichenbach's Odyllic Force, and the rotation
of the earth. Electricity, which in the public mind was then
considered to be an occult and mystical force, was espe-
cially popular. Indeed, many spiritualists probably thought
that the spirits operated by electricity.
In June 1853, a committee of four medical men held
seances to investigate table-turning. They found that the
table did not move at all when the sitters' attention was
diverted and they had not formed common expectations
about how the table should move. In another condition
they found that the table would not move if half the sitters
expected it to move to the right and the other half expected
Was Thaicated beforeRand, the table began to
movement
rotate after a few minutes, although no one of the sitters
was conscious of exercising any effort at all. The conclusion
formed was that the motion was due to muscular action,
mostly exercised unconsciously" [6]. Other investigators
came to similar conclusions.
But, by far, the most publicized and influentee investiga-
tion was that by England's most renowned scentis: the
physicist Michael Faraday. Faraday obtained subjects who
were "very honorable" and who were also successful
table-movers" [7]. Faraday found that he could obtain
movements of the table in a given direction with just one
subject sitting at his table in the laboratory. H's first tests
were designed to eliminated as explanations well-known
forces such as magnetism and electricity. He demonstrated
that substances such as sand-paper, millboard glue, glass,
moist clay, tinfoil, cardboard, vulcanized rubbe: and wood
did not interfere with the table-turning. He could find no
traces of electrical or magnetic effects. "No form of experi-
ment or mode of observation that I could devise gave me
the slightest indication of any peculiar force. No attra ctions,
or repulsion, ... nor anything which could be referred to
other than the mere mechanical pressure exened inad-
vertently by the turner."
Although Faraday suspected that the sitter was uncon-
sciously pushing the table in the desired direction. the sitter
adamantly insisted that he was not the agency tu :. instead,
was pulled in the expected direction by some force within
the table. Faraday created some ingenious arrangements to
see if the sitter's claim was true. He placed four of five
pieces of slippery cardboard, one over the other. on the
table top. The pieces were attached to one another by little
pellets of a soft cement. The lowest piece was attached to a
piece of sandpaper which rested on the table top. The
edges of the sheets overlapped slightly, and on the under
surface, Faraday drew a pencil line to indicate the position.
The table-turner then placed his hands upon the upper card
and waited for the table to move in the previously agreed
upon direction (to the left). Faraday then examined the
packet. It was easy to see by displacement of the pans of
the line, that the hand had moved further than the table,
and that the latter had lagged behind ;- that the hand. in
fact had pushed the upper card to the left and that the
under cards and the table had followed and been dragged
by it" [7].
In another arrangement, Faraday fixed an indicator to two
boards on the table top such that if the sitter was pulled by
the table the indicator would slope to the righ: but if the
sitter pushed the table, the indicator would slope to the
left. The table moved as before as long as the sitter could
not see the indicator. But as soon as the sitter was able to
watch the indicator, which gave him immediate feedback
when his hands pushed in the expected direction, all move-
ments of the table ceased. "But the most valuable effect of
this test-apparatus
.. is the corrective power it possesses
over the mind of the table-turner. As soon as the index is
placed before the most earnest, and they perceive-as in
my presence they have always done-that it tells truly
whether they are pressing downwards only or obliquely;
then all effects of table-turning cease, even though the
parties persevere, earnestly desiring motion, till they be-
come weary and worn out. No prompting or checking of
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..
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the hands is needed-Abproved Fos Releaset 2003/04/18 -01A-RDP96-00789R003100030001-4Y paranormal
because the parties are made conscious of what they are
phenomena.
really doing mechanically, and so are unable unwittingly to
deceive themselves" [7].
Faraday's investigation convinced several scientists that
table-turning was the result of self-deception resulting from
unconscious motor movements guided by expectation. His
report is even credited with dampening the enthusiasm, for
a few years, for spiritualism in England [6]. But several
spiritualists and table-turners were not convinced by
faraday's arguments. And this brings up another issue that
invariably accompanies the controversy over paranormal
claims. Whenever a skeptic demonstrates how an alleged
psychic phenomenon can be duplicated by mundane means,
the cla mant usually responds, "It's not the same thing!"
To many spiritualists and those who had witnessed
table-turning, Faraday's explanation appeared hopelessly in-
adequate. Professional mediums, for example, while sitting
at the table could provide meaningful answers by means of
iable-rapping to questions that sitters put to their assumed
spirit communicators. In addition, the table often moved in
¿ variety of ways which seemingly could not be explained
by simple muscular pressure applied by the sitters. For
example, the table often levitated above the floor with all
the sitters' hands resting on the top surface. And some
reports claimed that the table moved and levitated when
no human was in contact with it.
Faraday's explanation dealt with only one important cause
of the table-turning. He did not attempt to account for the
various ways in which the table could be moved and
levitated by trickery. Nor did he deal with the problem of
the notorious unreliability of eyewitness testimony. Nor did
he and his fellow skeptics realize that an abstract, even if
correct. explanation of table-turning was impotent when
matched against the personal and powerfully emotional
experience of a sitter who has been converted during an
actual table-turning session. These same limitations on any
attemp: to "explain away" an alleged paranormal event by
¿ muncane account continue to provide loopholes whereby
the proponent can maintain the reality of a paranormal
claim.
Two striking illustrations of the power of the experience
that "it is not the same thing," can be found in the
conversions to spiritualism of the next two major scientists
to investigate psychic phenomena. Both Robert Hare and
Alfred Russel Wallace were familiar with Faraday's research
and explanation when they first investigated spiritualistic
phenomena by means of table-turning. And both were
immediated convinced that their personal experiences could
not be accounted for by Faraday's theory. In these in-
stances, the forewarning, rather than serving to forearm,
actually disarmed. And this, too, is a recurring theme in the
history of psychical research.
SIR WILLIAM CROOKES
Faraday, the first major scientist to seriously investigate
spiritualistic phenomena, concluded that self-deception was
sufficient to explain what he observed. As a result, he
remained skeptical and critical of all further claims of
paranormal phenomena. Faraday's scientific colleagues were
obviously grateful for his investigation and conclusions. But
within the next two decades three other major scientists
also investigated paranormal claims and concluded, con-
Robert Hare, the eminent American chemst, began this
inquiry into spiritualistic phenomena in 185: immediately
after Faraday's investigation. Alfred Russel Wallace, the
cofounder with Darwin of the theory of evolution ty natu-
ral selection, initiated his investigations in *365. And Sir
William Crookes, the discoverer of thallium, began his
investigations in 1869. Al three had already achieve: repu-
tations as outstanding scientists before they surprised their
scientific colleagues with their assertions of having wit-
nessed psychic phenomena. Their colleagues were dis-
turbed and puzzled by such assertions from coviousy com-
petent scientists. Their reactions, unfortunately, were not
always rational and tended to make a confusing situation
worse.
I believe it is important to try to understand how these
otherwise competent scientists became convinced thit they
had acquired evidence sufficient to justify the bief in
paranormal phenomena. The investigations c' these scien-
tists can be credited with the initiation of psychcal re-
search as a field with scientific aspirations. And man of the
same issues of scientific justification of caims bor the
paranormal that we find in their work are still with us
today.
Robert Hare was Professor Emeritus of Chemistry at the
University of Pennsylvania and 72 years of age wten cir-
cumstances conspired te launch him on a new career as a
psychic investigator in "353 [8]. Hare, the author c' more
than 150 scientific papers, had invented the oxy-hverogen
blowpipe which was the predecessor of today's velding
torches [9]. According to Asimov, Hare was "ore of :re few
strictly American products who in those cavs could be
considered within hailing distance of the great European
chemists" [10].
Both Hare and his critics took it for granted that a
competent scientist coud carry out observations ind ex-
periments on a variety of phenomena and, as : resu : come
to trustworthy and sound conclusions. Until -e announced
his conversion to the spiritualistic hypothess Hare's col-
leagues did not doubt his competence as ar obsener and
experimenter. When he announced that he -ad nit only
experimentally verified paranormal phenomena, but had
been communicating with the spirits of his ceparted rela-
tives and also with George Washington, john Quincy
Adams, Henry Clay, Benjamin Franklin, Byron, and Isaac
Newton, this placed his incredulous coleague: in a
quandary [8].
For half a century, the scientific world -ad accepted
Hare's scientific papers and conclusions wit- respect and
admiration. His scientific accomplishments were wizely re-
cognized and honored. But now this respected fellow sci-
entist, by using apparently the same observational and
experimental skills that had earned him his renown, was
claiming to have demonstrated the reality c' pheromena
that scientists felt were just too preposterous to te true.
Instead of examining Hare's arguments and evidence, this
colleagues reacted emotionally and rejectes his conclu-
sions out of hand. Furthermore, they treated him as i traitor
to the scientific enterprise and refused to allow him to
present his case in the regular scientific forum.
From Hare's perspective this reaction was both unfair and
unscientific. His arguments were being rejected without
even being given a hearing. In his last few years he turned
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away from his scientific colleagues and confined his social
interactions entirely to his spiritualistic associates. From the
perspectiva Bbloved For Release 2003/04/18 CIA-RDP96-00789R008100030001-4ties with the field. In his
denly gone insane or had suffered some other form of
pathology. Here we see the False Dichotomy in action. And
this same False Dichotomy will be found throughout the
story of psychical research right up to the present.
Alfred Russel Wallace's conversion to spiritualism began
in the same way that Hare's did-sitting at an animated
table during a seance. Wallace's experience, just as Hare's
did, convinced him that Faraday's explanation of the table's
antics would not do. Unlike Hare, however, Wallace was
not 72 and at the end of his career. Instead he was 42 years
old and in the middle of a long and productive career. It
had only been seven years earlier that Wallace had inde-
pendently conceived the theory of evolution by natural
selection, the very same theory that Darwin had been
secretly working on for many years [11]-[13].
Critics have found it easy to dismiss the psychical evi-
dence of Hare on the basis of old age and of Wallace on
the assertion that, while he was a great naturalist and
observer, he was not an experimenter [11]. Neither criticism
can be applied, however, to William Crookes, who was the
next great scientist to investigate and endorse the reality of
paranormal phenomena. Crookes was generally acknowl-
edged, even by many who opposed his psychic beliefs, as
one of the preeminent chemists and physicists of his day.
Crookes-the discoverer of thallium, inventor of the radi-
ometer, developer of the Crookes tube, pioneer investigator
of radiation effects, and a contributor to photography and
other fields-was elected a Fellow of the Royal Society at
age 31, was later knighted, and received just about every
honor available to a scientist of his time.
When Crookes began attending seances with Mrs.
Marshall (the same medium who helped convert Wallace)
and J. J. Morse in 1869, he was 37 years of age. He bad been
very upset by the death of his youngest brother and ap-
parently believed he had received spirit communications
from him through the services of these mediums. In July
1870 Crookes announced his intention to conduct a scien-
tific inquiry into spiritualistic phenomena. He wrote, "I
prefer to enter upon the inquiry with no preconceived
notions whatever as to what can or cannot be, but with all
my senses alert and ready to convey information to the
brain; believing, as I do, that we have by no means ex-
hausted all human knowledge or fathomed the depths of
all physical forces" [15].
Although most of the scientific community assumed that
Crookes was undertaking the investigation as a skeptic, his
biographer wrote, "But it is certain, at all events, that when
in July 1870 Crookes, at the request, it is said of a London
daily paper, announced his intention of 'investigating spiri-
tualism, so-called,' he was already much inclined towards
spiritualism. What he really intended to do was to furnish,
if possible, a rigid scientific proof of the objectivity and
genuineness of the 'physical phenomena of spiritualism,' so
as to convert the scientific world at large and open a new
era of human advancement" [16].
Crookes packed almost all his research into psychical
phenomena into the four-year period 1870-1874 [17]. When
he failed to sway his scientific colleagues-and as a result
of bitter attacks by his critics, Crookes quietly dropped this
work and devoted his scientific efforts from 1875 onwards
to more mainstream subjects. But he rever gave up his
final years, he began attending seances again and believed.
near the end, that he had finally found proof of sunwal
when he obtained a spirit photograph of his dead wife [:5].
By today's standards, the investigations that come closest
to being "scientific" were those that Crookes carried out
with the celebrated medium Daniel Dunglas Home. Home
is probably the most colorful and enigmatic psychic in the
history of spiritualism [6], [9]. In one session, which took
place at Crooke's home on May 31, 187, Home held an
accordian (which had just been purchased by Crookes 'or
this occasion) by one end so that the end with the keys
hung down towards the floor. The accorc an was placed in
a special cage under the table which jus: allowed Horre's
hand to be inserted to hold the accordian. Home's other
hand was visible above the table. The ind viduals sitting on
either side of Home could see his hand as well as the
accordian in the wire cage. "Very soon the accordian wes
seen by those on
each side to be moving about in a
somewhat curious
manner, but no sound was neard ... "
After putting the accordian down, Home picked i: up again.
This time several
notes were heard. Crookes' assistent
crawled under the table and said that he saw the accord an
expanding and contracting, but Home's hand was quite still
[15].
At the same session Crookes reported a- experiment tret
he regarded as even "more striking, if possible, than :- e
one with the accordian." A mahogany board, 3 ft long, with
one end resting on a table and other end supported b. a
spring balance, was in a horizontal position. Home, while
"sitting in a low easy-chair" placed the tps of his fingers
lightly on the extreme end of the board which was resting
on the table. "Almost immediately the pointer of the bel-
ance was seen to descend. After a few seconds it rose
again. This movement was repeated several times, as if oy
successive waves of the Psychic Force. The end of the
board was observed to oscillate slowly up and down during
the experiment" [15].
To see if were possible to produce an effect on the spring
balance by ordinary pressure, Crookes stood on the table
and pressed one foot on the end of the board where Home
had placed his fingers. By using the entire weight of his
body (140 lb), Crookes was able to get the index to register
at most 2 lb. Home had apparently achieved a maximum
displacement of 6 lb.
Because of such results Crookes concluded that, "These
experiments appear conclusively to establish the existence
of a new force, in some unknown manne: connected with
the human organisation which for convenience may be
called the Psychic Force" [15]. The skeptics were not con-
vinced. They raised a variety of objections to the experi-
ment measuring the movement of the board. Crookes
thought some of the criticisms were unfair and irrelevant.
But others he felt were reasonable and could be answered.
He repeated the experiment with additional controls. To
avoid direct contact with the board, he altered the appara-
tus slightly in a manner that had previously been used by
Robert Hare in some of his experiments. A bowl of water
was placed on the end of the board not supported by the
spring scale. Inside the bowl of water was lowered a "hemi-
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spherical copper vessel perforated with several holes at the
bottom." The copper vessel was suspended from a large
iron stand which vApproved fFor Release 2008/04/18 : CIA-RDP96 00789R00310003 00014material:, but ci
tus. Home placed his fingers lightly in the water in the
copper bowl. Presumably, this prevented him from having
direct contact with the board. Yet, under these conditions
Home managed to cause the other end of the board to
sway up and down.
Finally, Home was removed a few feet away from the
apparatus and his hands and legs were held. Even under
these conditions, Crookes was able to record movements of
the board, although the displacement was less the farther
Home was from the apparatus. In further answer to critics,
Crookes describes similar experiments carried out success-
fully by other researchers including Robert Hare. Crookes
also got similar results using a lady who was not a profes-
sional medium in place of Home.
This series of experiments is by far the most impressive,
from a scientific viewpoint, of any that Crookes conducted.
Indeed, so far as I can tel., although these were among the
very first serious attempts by a scientist to test a psychic,
they have not been exceeded in degree of documentation
and experimental sophistication during the subsequent 114
years. This is despite the fact that following Crookes' exam-
ple, eminen: scientists during almost every decade since
Crookes' experiments have conducted tests of famous psy-
chics.
The comments in the preceding paragraph should not be
taken as an endorsement of Crookes' results. His experi-
ments on the "Psychic Force" are superior relative to what
has been reported by other scientists, including contem-
porary ones in their tests of psychic superstars. On an
absolute scale of judgment the experiments still leave much
to be desired. A major problem is documentation. Crookes
omits many details which, from today's perspective at least,
seem important in assessing what might have taken place.
Responding to the accusation that his witnesses were not
reliable, Crookes wrote, "Accustomed as I am to have my
word believed without witnesses, this is an argument which
I cannot condescend to answer. All who know me and read
my articles will, I hope, take it for granted that the facts 1
lay before them are correct, and that the experiments were
honestly performed, with the single object of eliciting the
truth" [15].
Here Crookes raises an important issue. When he re-
ported finding a green line in a spectrum where one had
never been reported, and followed this up with various
analyses and controls to support the assertion that he must
have discovered a new element (thallium), his scientific
colleagues did not insist that he import skeptical witnesses,
nor did they question his observations. The reported ob-
servation was made by using standard apparatus and re-
cording procedures. The necessary controls and possibilities
of error in such a context were well-known to workers in
the field and it could be safely assumed that any trained
chemist in this situation would behave according to both
implicit and explicit rules.
But Crookes and his critics seriously err when they as-
sume that similar confidence and trust can be placed in
observations made in a field outside the investigator's train-
ing and one in which no standardization exists for instru-
mentation, making observations, instituting controls, re-
cording the data, and reporting the results. The dificulties
are compounded further when the observations are made.
events involving humans who have a capacity to anticipate
the experimenter's objectives and alter their behavior
accordingly. .
I recently discovered that Podmore, back in 19:2, amti :-
ipated most of my reservations about Crookes' experime-(
on the movements of the balance [6]:
The experiment as it stands, even without the modifications
introduced later by Mr Crookes in deference to his scier-
tific critics, seems, indeed, conclusive against the possibility
of Home's affecting the balance by any pressure on his erid
of the board. But, tested by the canons laid down =y Vhr
Crookes himself at the outset of his investigations, we shall
find the conditions of the experiment defective . one
important particular. M: Crookes had shown that it is the
province of scientific investigation not merely to astertaun
the reality of the alleged movements and measure their
extent, but to establist their occurrence under conditions
which render fraud impossible. In the passage quoted cin
page 183 it is implicitly recognised that such conditions are
to be secured by eliminating the necessity for continuous
observation on the pan of the investigator. The proof of the
thing done should depend upon something else thin the
mere observation of the experimenters, however skilled.
Now in the experimen: quoted these conditions were not
fulfilled. On the contrary, we are expressly told that all
present guarded Home's feet and hands. It is pertirent 30
point out that a duty for which the whole compan. were
collectively responsible may well at times have beer inter-
mitted. Moreover, Dr. Huggins and Mr. Crookes -ad no
watch the balance also, and M'. Crookes had to take noless.
Again, the experiment described was not the first of the
kind; it occurred in the middle of a long series. It is Indeed
stated that Home was not familiar with the apparatus emi-
ployed. But as similar apparatus had been employed proto-
ably at previous trials ty Mr. Crookes himself, certainly by
earlier investigators-amongst them Dr. Hare, with whose
published writings on Spiritualism we cannot assume Home
was unacquainted-the statement carries little weight. Fur-
ther, a point of capita. importance, there had apparently
been many previous trials with various modifications of the
apparatus and many failures; in Mr. Crookes' own wordis,
"the experiments I have tried have been very numero.s, but
owing to our imperfect knowledge of the conditions which
favour or oppose the manifestations of this force, to the
apparently capricious manner in which it is exerted, ind 0
the fact that Mr. Home himself is subject to unaccountabile
ebbs and flows of the force, it has but seldom happened
that a result obtained on one occasion could be subse-
quently confirmed and tested with apparatus specialy com-
trived for the purpose."
The real significance of this statement is that Home-a
practised conjurer, as we are entitled to assume-was in a
position to dictate the conditions of the experiment. 3y the
simple device of doing nothing when the condition: werre
unfavourable he could ensure that the light (gas in the
present instance) was such and so placed, the apparatus so
contrived, and the sitters so disposed, as to suit his purpose,
and that in the actual experiment the attention of the
investigators would necessarily be concentrated on the
wrong points. Under such conditions, as ordinary experience
shows, and as the experiments described in the last chapter
have abundantly demonstrated, five untrained observers arre
no match for one cleve: conjurer.
Podmore is referring, in the last sentence, to the dramatc
experiments on eye-witness testimony conducted by S. .
Davey [18]. Davey had been converted to a belief in
spiritualistic phenomena by the slate-writing demomstri-
tions of the medium Henry Slade. Subsequently, Dave!
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accidently discovered that Slade had employed trickery to
produce so Approved ForRelease 2003/04/18GIA-RDP96-00789003100030001-4
felt he could accomplish all of Slade's feats by trickery and
misdirection. He then conducted his well-rehearsed seance
for several groups of sitters, including many who had wit-
nessed and testified to the reality of spiritualistic phenom-
ena. Immediately after each seance, Davey had the sitters
write out in detail all that they could remember having
happened during his seance. The findings were striking and
very disturbing to believers. None of the sitters had sus-
pected Davey of using trickery. Sitters consistently omitted
crucial details, added others, changed the order of events,
and otherwise supplied reports which would make it im-
possible for any reader to account for what was described
by normal means.
Podmore has much more to say about this experiment.
His reference to "untrained" observers is not meant to
question Crookes' scientific competence. "But his previous
training did not necessarily render him better qualified to
deal with problems differing widely from those presented
in the laboratory. To put it bluntly, if Home was a conjurer,
Mr. Crookes was probably in no better position for detect-
ing the sleight-of-hand than any other man his equal in
intelligence and native acuteness of sense. Possibly even in
a worse position; for it may be argued that his previous
training would prepare the way for Home's efforts to con-
centrate attention on the mechanical apparatus, and thus
divert it from the seemingly irrelevant movements by which
it may be conjectured the conjurer's end was attained."
Finally, Podmore points out ways in which the report is
incomplete. He then speculates about. one possible way
Home might have tricked Crookes. He describes a scenario
in which Home could have employed a thread which he
attached to the apparatus, probably the hook of the scale.
Some further points could be mentioned such as the fact
that Crooke's unpublished notes suggest that the experi-
ment was much more informal and involved many more
distractions than the published version indicates [15].
..
Crookes held many seances not only with Home but with
almost every major spiritualistic medium who was in En-
gland during the years 1869 through 1875. He reported
having observed a variety of phenomena which he argued
could not have been produced by normal means: move-
ment of heavy bodies with contact but without mechanical
exertion; raps and other sounds; the alteration of weights of
bodies; movements of heavy substances at a distance from
the medium; the rising of tables and chairs off the ground,
without contact of any person; the levitation of human
beings; the appearance of hands, either self-luminous or
visible by ordinary light; direct writing; and phantom forms
and faces [18]. His documentation for such phenomena,
however, falls far short of what he has supplied us for the
movements of the balance.
As was the case with Hare and Wallace, Crookes was
bitterly attacked for his views: The eminent physiologist,
William Carpenter, lead the opposition. Carpenter openly
questioned Crookes' competence as a scientist, wrongly
stated that Crookes' election to the Royal Society had been
questionable, and made several other unwarranted insults
[16], [17]. Like Wallace, Crookes tried to get his scientific
colleagues and critics to witness his experiments with Home
and other psychics. But none of them accepted his invita-
tions.
DIFFICULTIES IN TESTING ALLEGED PSYCHICS
Hare, Wallace, and Crookes were the first of many emi-
nent scientists who have investigated and endorsed psy-
chics. Their work inspired many later scientists to also take
time away from their regular scientific activities to investi-
gate the paranormal claims of mediums or self-professed
psychics [4], [19]-[29]. Yet, I suspect that many parapsychol-
ogists will object to using the work of these psychic investi-
gators as part of a general evaluation and critique of para-
psychology. The
objection would be based on two
arguments.
Today, most parapsychologists would rot include the
reports of Hare. Wallace, and Crookes in their case for the
reality of psi (the current term to refer to extrasensory
perception and psychokinesis). And, secondly, even the
reports by more recent scientists on psych cs do not form
part of the primary database of parapsychology. Instead,
today's parapsychologists want to base their argument on
evidence emerging from laboratory experiments with un-
selected subjects and which use standardized tasks.
However, I believe there are good reasons for focussing
on these early investigators:
1) At the time they were reported, these investigations
were considered to be the strongest evidence for the
paranormal. From 1850 to 1866 Hare's research constituted
practically the entire "scientific" case upon which propo-
nents could base their claims. From 1870 until the founding
of the Society of Psychical Research in 1882 it was the work
of Crookes and Wallace that proponents put forth as the
best scientific justification for their paranormal claims.
2) The psychical research of these three eminent scien-
tists served as the model for all later investigations of
psychics by scientists. Although sometimes the latest tech-
nological developments are brought into the investigations,
no change in approach or improvements in methodology
for such investigations has occurred during the 130 years
since Hare first reported his findings [23]. In terms of
adequacy of documentation, for example, it is difficult to
find any improvement over Crookes' reports on his experi-
ments with Home in the subsequent accounts by such
psychic investigators as Richet, Barrett, Lodge, Lombroso,
Zoellner, Eisenbud, Targ, Puthoff, Hasted, and the many
others.
3) The work of this early trio served as an important
impetus for the subsequent founding of the Society for
Psychical Research in 1882. In his presidential address to the
first general meeting of The Society for Psychical Research
on July 17, 1882, Henry Sidgwick went out of his way to
acknowledge the importance and evidential value of the
work of these pioneer researchers [30]:
I say that important evidence has been accumulated; and
here I should like to answer a criticism that I have privately
heard which tends to place the work of our Society in a
rather invidious aspect. It is supposed that we throw aside
en bloc the results of previous inquiries as untrustworthy.
and arrogate to ourselves a superior knowledge of scientific
method or intrinsically greater trustworthiness-that we
hope to be believed, whatever conclusions we may come to,
by the scientific world, though previous inquirers have been
uniformly distrusted. Certainly I am conscious of making no
assumption of this kind. I do not presume to suppose that !
could produce evidence better in quality than much that has
been laid before the world by writers of indubitable scien-
tific repute-men like Mr. Crookes, Mr. Wallace, and the
late Professor de Morgan. But it is clear that from what I
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have defined as the aim of the Society, however good some
of its evidence may be in quality, we require a great deal
-with any individcar
who have looked carefully into the evidence that has been
so far obtained, ought to be convinced by that evidence; but
the educated world, including many who have given much
time and thought to this subject, are not yet convinced, and
therefore we want more evidence.
Sidgwick makes it clear that he and the other founders of
the Society for Psychical Research consider the findings of
Wallace and Crookes as scientifically sound. Sidgwick has
no doubt that Wallace's and Crookes' reports should con-
vince reasonable members of the scientific community. But
he pragmatically makes the distinction between what should
and what will convince the critics. "What I mean by suf-
ficient evidence is evidence that will convince the scientific
world, and for that we obviously require a good deal more
than we have so far obtained" [30]. In other words,
Sidgwick does not aspire to improve the quality of the
preceding scientific investigators. Rather he wants to acquire
more of the same quality.
4) The investigations of these original psychical research-
ers bring out many of the same issues of evidence,
testimony, and proof that still characterize current con-
troversies in parapsychology. Unfortunately, not much in
the way of further clarification or resolution of these issues
has occurred since their efforts first stimulated the debate. I
have already mentioned some of these issues in my discus-
sions of the individual cases.
Many of the issues involve the problem of competency.
To what extent, for example, does competency in one
branch of inquiry transfer, if at all, to a different branch?
Can a scientist, no matter how competent and well-inten-
tioned, initiate an inquiry into a previously unstructured
and unstandardized area and single-handedly produce re-
sults which bear the same scientific status as the results he
has produced in his original area of expertise? Elsewhere, 1
have given by reasons for answering this question in the
negative [23].
One important issue is perhaps worth bringing up at this
point. The scientists who have defended the trustworthi-
ness of their psychical research have typically insisted that
the observations and evidence of their reports of psychic
happenings do not differ in quality from that which char-
acterizes their more orthodox investigations.
Yet, at the same time, these same investigators acknowl-
edge an important difference between their inquiries into
physics and biology and their investigations of psychics.
Hare, Wallace, and Crookes, as well as the later psychical
researchers insisted that the psychics being .tested must be
treated with proper respect and concern for their feelings. If
the investigator is overly skeptical or otherwise betrays
distrust of the alleged psychic this could adversely affect
. the paranormal performance. Thus these scientists try to
convey the impression that they conduct their tests using
every precaution against fraud and deception, but at the
same time making sure not to take any step or include any
condition that meets with the disapproval of the alleged
psychic. Skeptics such as myself, who have both experience
in conducting experiments with humans and have been
trained in conjuring, believe this is an impossible task. The
twin goals of preventing trickery on the part of the alleged
psychic and of ensuring that this same person will be sat-
isfied with all the experimenta arrangements are mutuall.
incompatible.
more of it. I do Approved For Release 2003/04/18 : CIA-RDP96-00789R0039000300612 paranormal powers
of their subjects confidently insist they have simultaneousl.
achieved both goals. A contemporary version of this theme
has been eloquently put forma by a group of scientists.
including two of England's cutstanding physicists. in de-
scribing their experiments on the psychokinetic powers c:
Uri Geller [31]:
We have come to realize that i- certain ways the traditional
ideal of the completely impersonal approach of the natural
sciences to experimentation will not be adequate in this
domain. Rather, there is a personal aspect that has to be
taken into account in a way the is somewhat similar to that
needed in the disciplines of psychology and medicine. This
does not mean, of course, the is not possible to establish
facts on which we can count securely. Rather, it means that
we have to be sensitive and otservant. to discover what is a
right approach, which will properly allow for the subjective
element and yet perm't us 10 traw reliable inferences. One
of the first things that reveals :self as one observes is that
psychokinetic phenomena carnot in general be produced
unless all who participate are :- a relaxed state. A feeling of
tension, fear, or hostility on the part of any of those present
generally communicates itself : the whole group. The en-
tire process goes most easily when all those present actively
want things to work well. In addition, matters seem to be
greatly facilitated when the experimental arrangement is
aesthetically or imaginatively appealing to the person with
apparent psychokinetic powers
We have found also that it is generally difficult to produce a
predetermined set of phenomena. Although this may some-
times be done, what happens s often surprising and unex-
pected. We have observed the the attempt to concentrate
strongly in order to obtain a desired result (e.g., the bending
of a piece of metal) tends to interfere with the relaxed state
of mind needed to produce sich phenomena ... . Indeed,
we have sometimes found it useful at this stage to talk of, or
think about, something not cosely related to what is hap-
pening, so as to decrease the tendency to excessive
conscious concentration on the intended aim of the
experiment ... .
In the study of psychokinetic phenomena, such conditions
are much more important than in the natural sciences,
because the person who proovces these phenomena is not
an instrument or a machine. Any attempt to treat him as
such will almost certainly leac :o failure. Rather, he must be
considered to be one of the group, actively cooperating in
the experiment, and not a "subject" whose behavior is to be
observed "from the outside' in as cold and impersonal
manner as possible ...
In such research an attitude of mutual trust and confidence
is needed; we should not treat the person with psycho-
kinetic powers as an "object' to be observed with suspi-
cion. Instead, as indicated earler, we have to look on him as
one who is working with us. Consider how difficult it would
be to do a physical experiment if each person were con-
stantly watching his colleagues to be sure that they did not
trick him. How, then, are we to avoid the possibility of
being tricked? It should be possible to design experimental
arrangements that are beyonc any reasonable possibility of
trickery, and that magicians will generally acknowledge to
be so. In the first stages of our work we did, in fact, present
Mr. Geller with several such arrangements, but these proved
to be aesthetically unappeaing to him. From our early
failures, we learned that Mr. Geller worked best when
presented with many possitie objects, all together on a
metal surface; at least one of these objects might appeal to
him sufficiently to stimulate tis energies . . .
Nevertheless, we realize the: conditions such as we have
described in this paper are just those in which a conjuring
trick may easily be carried out. We understand also that we
are not conjuring experts, so f there should be an intention
to deceive, we may be as readily fooled as any person.
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4
Moreover, there has been a great deal of public criticism, in
gested. For this reason it has often been proposed that a
skilled magician should be present to help to see that there
will be no possibility of deception. It is in the nature of the
case, however, that no such assurance can actually be given.
For a skilled magician is able to exploit each new situa-
tion as it arises in a different and generally unpredictable
way ... . In principle, we would welcome help of this kind
in decreasing the possibility of deception. It has been our
observation, however, that magicians are often hostile to the
whole purpose of this sort of investigation, so they tend to
bring about an atmosphere of tension in which little or
nothing can be dore. Indeed, even if some magicians who
were found who were not disposed in this way, it does not
follow that their testimony will convince those who are
hostile, since the latter can always suppose that new tricks
were involved, beyond the capacity of those particular ma-
gicians to see through them. Because of all of this, it seems
unlikely that significant progress towards clearing up this
particular question could be made by actually having ma-
gicians present at the sessions, though we have found it
useful to have their help in a consultative capacity ... . We
recognize that there is a genuine difficulty in obtaining an
adequate answer to criticisms concerning the possibility of
tricks, and that a certain healthy skepticism or doubt on the
part of the reader may be appropriate at this point ... .
However, we believe that our approach can adequately
meet this situation,
These investigators close this discussion of the difficulties
of carrying out such research with an optimistic prognosis,
"We feel that if similar sessions continue to be held,
instances of this kind might accumulate, and there will be
no room for reasonable doubt that some new process is
involved here, which cannot be accounted for, or ex-
plained, in terms of the laws of physics at present known.
Indeed, we already feel that we have very nearly reached
this point." These hopeful words were written in 1975.
Neither they nor other scientists have yet managed to
present scientific evidence that Uri Geller or his many
imitators can bend metal paranormally. Although at least.
one major physicist continues his investigations of para-
normal metal bending [20], a decade of research on Uri
Geller by scientists who adhered to the advice of treating
the metal-bender as a respected colleague and catering to
his aesthetic sensibilities has only succeeded to demon-
·strate that Geller can bend metal under conditions which
allow him to do it by cheating [21].
Hare, Wallace, and Crookes, as well as subsequent psy-
chic researchers, insisted they had guarded against the
possibility of trickery while, at the same time, acknowledg-
ing the necessity to treat their subjects in the special way
described by Hasted et al. Unfortunately, as Hasted et al.
concede, this special treatment increases the. difficulties of
preventing deception. But, like their predecessors in psychi-
cal research, they express confidence that their scientific
skills can overcome the difficulty. In fact, the suggested
procedure gives the alleged psychic veto power over any
arrangement that impedes trickery and also supplies a ready
excuse for not producing phenomena when the dangers of
detection suddenly seem too high. The conditions which
the scientists report as ideal for the production of psychical
phenomena are just those that are also ideal for the produc-
tion of the same phenomena by trickery.
...
5) As already discussed, Hare, Wallace, and Crookes were
bitterly attacked by their skeptical scientific colleagues. And
the same sorts of attacks and defenses have characterized
subsequent cases. Both critics and defenders still implicitly
which the Bossibied For Release 2003/04$18 CIA-RDP96-00789R003100030001-4chotomy. And both the
critics and the defenders, in different ways, do not emerge
as rational, objective, scientific or otherwise admirable in
their exchanges. Worse, no lessons from the past seem to
have either been learned or carried over to the current
controversies. If the critical exchanges had been more con-
structive and rational at the time of Hare, Wallace, and
Crookes, today we might be closer to understanding what
was really going on to make such eminent scientists put
forth such seemingly outrageous claims.
Hare, Wallace, and Crookes had no success in inducing
their critics to come and examine the evidence for them-
selves. It is possible that if Huxley and Carpenter had
accepted Wallace's invitation to attend at least six seances,
no phenomena would have taken place. On the other
hand, it would be useful to have the accounts of such
skeptical observers before us if, say, Miss Nichol did pro-
duce the flowers in their presence. And it certainly would
have helped if Carpenter and Stokes had accepted Crookes'
invitation to watch his experiments with .Home and the
balance.
THE CREERY SISTERS
For its first 30 years, psychical research consisted of
individual and uncoordinated investigations by scholars or
scientists such as Hare, Wallace, and Crookes. During this
period some feeble and unsuccessful attempts were made
to form research societies and coordinate the research [32].
The first successful attempt to institutionalize psychical
research was the founding of the Society for Psychical
Research in London in 1882. Four of the principal leaders of
this society-the philosopher Henry Sidgwick, the physicist
William Barrett, the literary scholar Edmund Gurney, and
the classicist Frederic Myers-had been encouraged, in
addition to their own investigations of telepathy and
mediums, by the research of such scientists as Wallace and
Crookes. The founders of the Society clearly believed that
they possessed solid scientific evidence for the reality of
thought-transference. At the first general meeting of the
Society in London on July 17, 1882, Henry Sidgwick ended
his presidential address with the following words [30]:
We must drive the objector into the position of being forced
either to admit the phenomena as inexplicable, at least by
him, or to accuse the investigators either of lying or cheating
or a blindness or forgetfulness incompatible with any intel-
lectual condition except absolute idiocy. I am glad to say
that this result, in my opinion, has been satisfactorily at-
tained in the investigation of thought-reading. Professor
Barrett will now bring before you a report which I hope will
be only the first of a long series of similar reports which may
have reached the same point of conclusiveness.
Before looking at the experimental results whose "con-
clusiveness" Sidgwick believes is beyond reasonable doubt,
I would like to call the reader's attention to the use of the
False Dichotomy im Sidgwick's strategy. The goal is to
report evidence that is so compelling that the critic either
has to admit that psychic phenomena have been demon-
strated or that the investigator is deliberately lying, afflicted
with a pathological condition, or incredibly incompetent.
Sidgwick does not allow for the possibility that an investi-
gator could be competent, honest, sane, and intelligent,
and still wrongly report what he believes to be "conclusive"
832
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evidence for the pannormal. Unfortunately, as seen in the
cases of Hare, Wald For Release 2003/04/18 : CIA-RDP96-00789800310003000 vaguelyabout;
ceeding the cases, the critics, in responding to paranormal
sometimes she moves to the right part of the room and does
the thing, or something like the thing, which she has been
willed to do. Nothing could at first sight look less like a
promising starting-point for a new branch of scientific in-
quiry.
claims, have implicitly accepted the False Dichotomy. When
confronted with paranormal claims by otherwise com-
petent investigators, many critics have taken the bait and
have tried to discredit the offending investigator by ques-
tioning his competence, insinuating fraud, or suggesting
pathology.
The "conclusive" evidence with which Sidgwick wanted
to confront the objector came from a series of experiments
on through-transference conducted by his colleagues Wil-
liam Barrett, Edmund Gurney, and Frederic Myers [33]. The
investigators introduced this series as follows [33]:
In the correspondence we have received there were two
cases which seemed, upon inquiry. to be free from any
prima facie objections, and apparently indicative of true
thought-reading. Ore of these cases is given in the Appen-
dix ... but as we carnot from personal observation testify to
the conditions under which the trials were made, we simply
leave it aside. The other case was that of a family in
Derbyshire, with whom we have had the opportunity of
frequent and prolonged trials.
Our informant was Mr. Creery, a clergyman of unblemished
character, and whose integrity indeed has, it so happens,
been exceptionally tested. He has a family of five girls,
ranging now between the ages of ten and seventeen, all
thoroughly healthy. as free as possible from morbid or
hysterical symptomi, and in manner perfectly simple and
childlike. The fathe stated that any one of these children
(except the younger), as well as a young servant-girl who
had lived with the family for two years, was frequently able
to designate correcly, without contact or sign, a card or
other object fixed on in the child's absence. During the year
which has e apsed since we first heard of this family, seven
visits, mostly of several days' duration, have been paid to the
town where they I've, by ourselves and several scientific
friends, and on these occasions daily experiments have been
made.
.
The preceding quotation was taken from the "First Re-
port on Thought-Reading" which was read at the first
meeting of the Society. Several more experiments were
conducted with the Creery sisters and the results included
in the second and third reports [34], [35]. Notice the empha-
sis placed upon Reverend Creery's "unblemished character"
and integrity. Within the Victorian society of Sidgwick and
his colleagues this emphasis on character had a special
significance. According to Nicol, many flaws in the investi-
gative reports of the Society were due to "a double stan-
dard of evidence."
The Society's doub'e standard of evidence arose in the
following way. The Society's leaders were members of the
middle and upper riddle strata of society. When faced with
the problem of estimating the value of evidence, they di-
vided the world into two classes: (a) Members of their own
class (Ladies and Gentlemen in the Victorian sense) whom
they tended to treat trustingly; (b) Members of the lower
classes, whom for trevity we may call the Peasants: them
they treated with suspicion [36].
The experiments with the Creery sisters were all variants
of the popular Victorian pastime known as the "willing
game" [37].
The game admits of many variations, but is usually played
somewhat as follows. One of the party, generally a lady,
leaves the room, and the rest determine on something
which she is able to do on her return-as to take a flower
from some specified vase, or to strike some specified note
on the piano. She is then recalled, and one or more of the
'willers' place their hands lightly on her shoulders. Some-
Barrett, Gurney, and Myers go to great lengths to assure
their readers that they are aware of the many non-
paranormal ways in which information from the senders
can be communicated to the percipient. Subtle uncon-
scious pushes by the "willer," for example, can guide the
percipient to the correct place. And there is always the
possibility of secret codes being employed [33]. [37]. Never-
theless, they relate incidents from their own experience
with the game which they believe cannot be handled by
such obvious explanations.
In their typical experimental procedure, one child would
be selected to leave the room. When she was out of the
room, the remaining participants would select a playing
card or write down a number or name. "On re-entering she
stood-sometimes turned by us with her face to the wall,
oftener with her eyes directed towards the ground, and
usually close to us and remote from her family-for a
period of silence varying from a few seconds to a minute,
till she called out to us some number, card, or whatever it
might be" [33]. Before leaving the room, the child was
always informed of the general category, such as playing
cards, from which the target item was to be chosen.
The authors obviously felt that their knowledge of the
various ways that inadvertent and deliberate signaling of
the percipient could occur somehow made them immune
from such errors. As an added precaution, however, they
conducted several trials either in which members of the
family were absent or in which only the experimenters
knew the chosen object (unfortunately they do not dis-
tinguish among trials on which only the experimenters
were informed of the target but the family was present and
trials on which only the experimenters were present). The
investigators claim that keeping the family uninformed did
not appreciably lower the proportion of above-chance cor-
rect guesses.
The results were quite striking. Looking only at the re-
sults of those trials on which members of the Committee
alone knew the card or number selected, the investigators
summarize their findings as follows [35]:
260 Experiments made with playing cards; the first responses
gave 1 quite right in 9 trials; whereas the responses, if pure
chance, would be 1 quite right in 52 trials. 79 Experiments
made with numbers of two figures; the first responses gave 1
quite right in 9 trials; whereas the responses, if pure chance,
would be 1 quite right in 90 trials.
The experimenters also summarize the results of the
much larger number of trials in which the family members
were not excluded. Two points are worth noting about the
results reported above. By ordinary statistical criteria the .
odds against such an outcome being due just to chance are
enormous. But the calculation of such odds assumes, that in
the absence of telepathy, we know the expected value and
distribution of hits. The way experimenters can ensure the
appropriate conditions for the application of the statistical
tests is to include careful procedures for randomizing the
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targets on each trial such that each target has an equal
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nowhere in the three reports do we find any mention of
how the playing card or number was chosen on each trial.
We do not know if the deck was shuffled even once, let
alone between trials. The number selection is even more
disturbing because if, as seems to be the case, a committee
member simply thought of any two digit number that came
to mind, we know that some numbers are much more likely
than others. And the same few numbers that are favored by
the sender are likely to be those that come to the mind of
the percipient. These most probable numbers, known as
"mental habits" in the older literature, are called "popula-
tion stereotypes" by Marks and Kammann [25].
The second peculiarity, which was noted by Coover, is
that the proportion of successful hits in these experiments
seems to be independent of the chance probability [38].
Thus the hit rate is 1 out 9 trials regardless of whether cards
or numbers are being guessed. To Coover this suggest the
use of a code rather than the imperfect transmission of
psychic signals.
As already indicated, the founders of the Society for
Psychical Research believed that, with the experimental
results on the Creery sisters, they had finally succeeded in
scientifically establishing telepathy as a valid phenomenon.
As just one example of the importance attached to these
experiments, Gurney's statement in the Society's first major
monograph, Phantasms of the Living [39] can be cited:
I have dwelt at some length on our series of trials with the
members of the Creery family, as it is to those trials that we
owe our own conviction of the possibility of genuine
thought-transference between persons in a normal state.
Despite this confidence in the conclusiveness of the
Creery experiments, critics quickly pointed out perceived
flaws [38], [40], [41]. It was charged that the authors grossly
underestimated the extent to which sophisticated coding
could transpire between the girls in the experimental situa-
tion. The critics also suggested that the experimenters were
naive in assuming that they could prevent inadvertent cue-
ing just by being aware of the possibility.
Concerning the trials in which only the investigators
knew the chosen object, the critics complained about inad-
equate documentation. The experimenters never state how
the card or object was chosen; whether the members of the
family were present during the selection (even though they
were presumably kept ignorant of the choice); whose deck
of playing cards was used; and so forth.
As can be seen, even on this brief account, we encounter
a number of the issues that characterized earlier psychical
research. The investigators assume that to be forewarned is
to be forearmed. For example, they devote six pages of their
first report to a discussion of the various types of errors,
which if not excluded, could invalidate their research [33].
The purpose is to assure the reader that because they are
keenly aware of the possibilities of such errors they could
not have occurred. As previously mentioned, one way the
investigators tried to preclude giving the girl any involun-
tary muscular cue was simply for the investigator to be
consciously aware of such a possibility and consciously
prevent himself from displaying such cues. Not only is such
a precaution useless [42], but it was unnecessary since one
could more directly prevent unwitting bodily cues by sim-
ply screening those who know the target from the percipi-
tor) reasons for discounting a possible source of error for
actual experimental controls to guard against the error
characterizes psychical research from its inception to the
present.
A second theme is that prior experience in investigating
paranormal claims automatically qualifies one as an expert
who can be trusted not to make mistakes or be susceptible
to trickery in future situations. This theme is closely related
to the False Dichotomy issue.
The report on the Creery sisters also illustrates another
recurring theme in psychical research-the Patchwork Quilt
Fallacy. As Giere points out, the "patchwork quilt fallacy"
gets its name because, 'The hypothesis. initial conditions,
and auxiliary assumptions are pieced together in such a way
that they logically imply the known facts" [43]. Telepathy or
psi always seems to be just that mysterious phenomenon
that produced all the peculiar patterns that we happened to
observe in our data. On some days the Creery sisters per-
formed no better than chance. This variability among days
became, in the minds of the investigators, a property of the
phenomenon [35]:
It may be noted that the power of these children, collec.
tively or separately, gradually diminished during these
months, so that at the end of 1882 they could not do, under
the easiest conditions, what they could do under the mos:
stringent in 1861. This gradual decline of power seemed
quite independent of the tests applied, and resembled ine
disappearance of a transitory pathological condition, being
the very opposite of what might have been expected from a
growing proficiency in code-communication.
The fact that alleged psychics inevitably seem to lose
their powers under continued investigation has become
known as the "decline effect," which can occur in a variety
of patterns and guises. Gurney and his colleagues propose
the decline as additional support for the genuineness of the
telepathy because it is not what might be expected if the
girls were becoming more proficient in using a code. The
cynic, of course, views this decline in the just the opposite
way. Presumably the investigators are also becoming more
proficient in knowing what to look for, especially in the
face of continuing criticism, and, as a result, they have
made it more difficult for the girls to get away with their
tricks.
As it turns out the investigators later caught the girls
cheating. The girls, at least on this occasion, had used a
simple code. This brings up an additional theme in psychi-
cal research which we might, for short, label the Problem of
the Dirty Test Tube. Gurney revealed the deception in a
brief note which appeared in the Proceedings of the Society
for Psychical Research in 1888 [44]. Hall thinks it is very
significant that Gurney's fellow investigators did not sign
this revelation [41].
In the note, Gurney reminds his readers "that the earliest
experiments in Thought-transference described in the
Society's Proceedings were made with some sisters of the
name of Creery. The important experiments were, of course,
those in which the fagency' was confined to one or more of
the investigating Committee .... But though stress was
never laid on any trials where a chance of collusion was
afforded by one or more of the sisters sharing in the
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834

'agency,' nevertheless some results contair
'inder such
gave her the opportunity. Despite this record of cheatir
conditApprovedFordRelease 2003/04/18 : CIARDP96-00789R0031000300014 including some of toda
therefore, to state that in a series of experim?
!: with cards,
recently made at Cambridge, two of the s
leaders in the field. have no doubt that on many ott
acting as
occasions she displayed true paranormal powers [19]. (
'agent' and 'percipient,' were detected in th #
of a code
of signals; and a third has confessed to a ce
mount of
signalling in the earlier series to which refr .
has been
made" [44]. Gurney then describes both
visual and
auditory codes used by the girls. He conti.
is follows
[44]:
the contemporary scene, parapsychologists are willing
admit that the controversial metal-bender Uri Geller oft
cheats, but that, on occasion, he exhibits real paranorn
powers [45]. And parapsychologists blamec me, rather th
Geller, for the fact that Geller cheated in my presen
because, as they put it, I did not impose suff ciently str
gent conditions to prevent him from cheating [22.
The use of the visual code was very gratuitous
.. . the part of
that we did
the sisters, since it had been explained to the
not attach any scientific value to the experin.
"i5 in which
1, other, the
they acted as agent and bercipient in sight of :
possibility of success under these condition. 'ving been
abundantly proved. The object of our experii.
nts at Cam-
ngthen the
members of
bridge on this occasion was, if possible, to :
evidence for Thought-transference (1) when r.
the family were aware of the thing to be gu . ... d, and (2)
when the sister acting as agent was in a differ.
room from
the one acting as percipient. The experiment, i which the
codes were used were intended merely as an isement and
encouragement with a view to increase the cha. . e of success
in the more difficult ones-which were all con .Jete failures.
The account which was given as to the earlier experiments,
conducted under similar conditions, is that sig: . Is were very
rarely used; and not on specially successful or casions, but
on occasions of failure. when it was feared that visitors
would be disappointed. But of course the rec. at detection
must throw discredit or the results of all previous trials in
which one or more of the sisters shared in the agency. How
far the proved willingness to deceive can be held to affect
the experiments on which we relied, where collision was
excluded, must of course depend on the degree of strin-
gency of the precautions taken against trickery of other sorts
-as to which every reacer will form his own opinion.
This manner of treating the discovery of cheating il-
lustrates a number of interwoven themes. The finding of a
"dirty test tube" ordinarily implies that all the results of the
experiment are brought into question. Gurney argues that
only those results clearly attached to the "dirty test tube"
should be discarded. Since the girls could not have used
their code, in his judgment, in those trials in which only
investigators knew the chosen object, those trials still retain
their evidential value. Related to this is what the early
psychical researchers called the problem of "mixed
mediumship." Psychics and mediums are under constant
pressure to produce results, yet they have little direct con-
trol over their fickle powers. Therefore, in order not to
disappoint their followers or from fear of losing the atten-
tion that goes with mediumship, they learn to supplement
their real powers with tricks to simulate the phenomena.
Still another variant of this exploits the apparent fact that
many mediums and psychics are apparently in a trance or
altered state when performing. In such a state they are
highly suggestible and behave in ways expected of them. If
skeptics are among the onlookers, they will sometimes
cheat because this is what is expected of them. The onus
for the consequent cheating is by this means placed upon
the skeptic rather than the cheater.
The dirty test tube problem has been with psychical
research from its beginning and, as we will see, is still very
much a part of the contemporary scene. The medium
Eusapia Palladino's long career was noteworthy for the
number of times she was caught cheating. She readily
acknowledged that she would cheat if the investigators
Despite this attempt to save some of the evidence fre
the Creery experiments, the leaders of the Societ. for P
chical Research quietly removed the exper ment from thi
evidential database. But Sir William Barre :: refused to
along with this demoting of the experiment. According
Gauld, this incident sparked dissension between Barr
and the other founders [32].
Barrett had been the first to experiment with these g."s, and
they were his special proteges ... Batter: would never
agree that the later and crude cheating invalidated all the
earlier results; he considered that his 1875 experiments,
together with his experiments with the Creerys had estab-
lished his claim to be the discoverer of though :- trans-
ference, and he remained bitter towards the Sicgwasks for
the rest of his life.
Not only did Barrett continue to defend the evide:
value of the Creery experiments, but so dic later
:
1
psychologists. In his classic monograph of 1934 on
Sensory Perception, J. B. Rhine included this expe.m.
among the most evidential of the early research. "
whole the early experiments in E.S.P. were admirab:
ducted ... as one would expect from the array of
impressive names connected with them. The exper
with the Creery sisters, for instance, were conduc
Professors William Barrett, Henry Sidgwick and .
Stewart, by Mrs. Henry. Sidgwick, Frederic Myers, Ec
Gurney and Frank Podmore ... . In all this work the
were sufficiently striking to leave no doubt as to the
sion of the hypothesis of chance" [46].
Despite these attempts to salvage something fron
Creery experiments, I believe it is fair to say that today
experiments are not part of the case that parapsycholog
would make in support of psi. Indeed, my perusal of sev:
contemporary books and histories of parapsychology
dicates that the experiments are rarely, if ever, mention
The same fate befell the very next majo: experiment
telepathy conducted by the same investigators. In th
"Second Report on Thought-Transference," Gurney and
colleagues describe the first of their experimental findi!
in which two young men, Smith and Blackburn, were
parently able to communicate telepathically under cor
tions that prevented normal communication. If anythi
the investigators placed even more reliance upon th
later experiments than in those with the Creery sisters.
As was the case with the Creery sisters, Smith and Bla
burn soon lost their powers. Smith was then hired by
Society to assist in the conduct of several successful te
pathic experiments. In 1908, Blackburn, thinking that Smr
was dead, publicly confessed as to how he and Smith I
tricked the investigators during the experiments. Sm
who was very much alive and still employed by the Soci
denied the charges. In the ensuing debate, the Socie
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HYMAN. PARAPSYCHOLOGICAL RESEARCH

leaders defended Smith. Good accounts of this amazing
put under the rubric of extra-sensory perception (ESP). EP
became defined as "Knowledge of or response to an exiar-
incident can be found in [38] and [41]. Today, the Smith-
Blackburn eApproved For Release 2003/04/48of CIA-RDP96-00789R0031000300014hended through known
parapsychological case for psi.
J. B. RHINE
The founding of the Society for Psychical Research in
1882 was an attempt to organize and professionalize psychi-
cal research. Other societies, such as the American Society
for Psychical Research quickly followed. Journals and pro-
ceedings were published and international congresses were
held. Despite these steps towards institutionalization, psy-
chical research continued for the next 50 years to be an
uncoordinated activity of amateurs. No agreed upon pro-
gram or central body of concepts characterized the field.
During this period, psychic researchers disagreed among
themselves on issues involving subject matter, method-
ology, and theory: On one side were those, perhaps the
majority, who supported the spiritist hypothesis that psy-
chic phenomena reflected the activity of departed spirits or
superintelligent beings. Opposed to these were psychic
researchers like Nobel Laureate Charles Richet who
defended the position that the phenomena could be ex-
plained in terms of a "psychic force" without assuming
survival of spirits [47].
Another division was between those who felt that psychi-
cal research should confine itself to mental phenomena
such as telepathy, premonitions, and clairvoyance. Op-
posed to these were those who felt that the physical
phenomena such as levitation, materialization, poltergeist
events, and psychokinesis should be the focus of inquiry.
The majority of psychical researchers believed in telepathy
but were dubious about clairvoyance. But a strong minority,
lead by Richet, believed that clairvoyance not only existed
but was the basic phenomenon underlying telepathy.
Possibly the most divisive issue of all was the question of
what sort of a research program was appropriate for psychi-
cal investigation. A small, but vocal minority wanted psychi-
cal research to become a rigorous experimental science. A
larger group felt that the natural-historical method was
more appropriate because so many of the important phe-
nomena were spontaneous and not observable in the
laboratory. Opposed to both these groups were members
of the societies who felt that the quantification and rigor of
the natural sciences were irrelevant to the study of psychi-
cal phenomena.
.
The event that is credited with providing psychical re-
search with a common focus and a coherent research
program was the publication in 1934 of J. B. Rhine's mon-
graph Extra-Sensory Perception [46]. . Mauskopf and
McVaugh [47] provide an excellent survey of the period
from 1915 to 1940, which they treat as the period when
psychical research made the transition from a pre-paradig-
matic to a paradigmatic research program.
Rhine pulled together the various strands already existing
in psychical research and coordinated them into a coherent
program. He also coined the terms "parapsychology" to
refer to the new experimental science which descended
from psychical research and "extra-sensory perception" to
refer to the basic phenomenon which was to be studied. In
agreement with Richet, and in disagreement with the British
parapsychologists, Rhine viewed clairvoyance as on the
same footing with telepathy. Later, precognition was also
sensory channels" [48]. This included telepathy, clar-
voyance, precognition, and retrocognition. The psychic
phenomena not involving reception of information were
included under the term "psychokinesis" (PK) which s
defined as "The influence of mind on external objects or
processes without the mediation of known physical en-
ergies or forces" [48]. Today both ESP and PK are incluord
under the more general term "psi" which is "A general
term to identify a person's extrasensorimoter communi:1-
tion with the environment" [48].
Rhine's 1934 mongraph deals only with clairvoyance and
telepathy. In 1934 he also began research programs in
precognition and psychokinesis. Apparently, he was ?-
luctant to publicize these latter programs too soon for fur
of making parapsychology too controversial and unaccent-
able to mainstream science [48]. He waited until 1938 se-
fore he published anything on precognition and until 15-3
for the first reports on his PK results.
The major innovation introduced by Rhine was the use of
the five target designs: circle, cross, wavy lines, square, a'd
star. These patterns were printed on cards and the standard
ESP deck consisted of 5 cards of each symbol for a total of
25 cards. Rhine also introduced standard procedures or
using these target materials. The two most common were
the Basic Technique and the Down Through Technique n
the Basic Technique (B.T.), the deck is shuffled and placed
face down, the percipient guesses the value of the top car :;
this is then removed and laid aside and the percipient
guesses the value of the second card; the second care s
then removed and laid on top of the first and the percipient
now guesses the third card; etc. This procedure is con-
tinued until al: 25 cards have been used. At the end of such
a "run," a check is made to see how many guesses wee
hits. If the procedure was supposed to test telepathy then
an agent would look at each card at the time the percipient
was trying to guess its symbol. If clairvoyance was berg
tested, no one would look at each card as it was placed
aside. The Down Through Technique (D.T.) tested
clairvoyance by having the percipient guess the symb:is
from top to bottom before any of them were removed or
checking against the call. The D.T. technique is considered
to be superio: methodologically in that it better protests
against inadvertent sensory cues from the backs of ne
cards.
Extra-Sensory Perception attracted the attention of bath
the psychical researchers and the skeptics for two reasons.
Rhine's database consisted of 91174 separate trials or
guesses over a three-year period using a number of nonpo-
fessional individuals as percipients. More important was ne
unprecedented level of success which he reported. Of he
85 724 guesses recorded using the five-symbol ESP deces,
24 364 were "hits.'
This was 7219 more hits than the 17-45
that would be expected just by chance. The odds against
this being just an accident are calculated as being praxi-
cally infinite. His subjects averaged 7.1 hits per run of 25 as
against the chance expectation of 5. Although this is on! 2
extra hits per 25, such consistency over this huge number of
trials and different subjects had no precedent in the pror
history of psychical research.
Rhine's best subject, Hubert Pearce averaged 8 hits cer
run over a total of 17 250 guesses. As Rhine notes [46]:
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Most people are more impressed by a spectacular series of
successive hits than by lower but cumulative scoring. Pearce's
scoring 25 straightApproved.For.Release 2003/04/18 : CIAFRDP96-00789R003100030001-4
presence, and Zirkle's 26 straight hits in pure telepathy with
my assistant, Miss Ownbey, are the best instances of these.
Other subjects have approached these. Linzmayer scored 21
in 25 clairvoyance, in my presence; Miss Ownbey herself,
unwitnessed, scored 23, pure clairvoyance. Miss Turner's
score of 19 in distance P.T. [pure telepathy] work stands out
because of the 250 miles between her and the agent. Miss
Bailey scored 19 in P.T. in the same room with the agent, as
did also Cooper. The odds against getting one series of 25
straight hits by mere chance would be 525 which is nearly
300 quadrillions -- just one score of 25! A small part of our
90 000 trials.
Rhine's work provided the model for most parapsycho-
logical work from 1934 to around 1970. Using card-guessing
with the five ESP symbols, an astonishing variety of ques-
tions about ESP were investigated [48]. Because of its huge
database, its claims to statistical and experimental sophisti-
cation, and its unprecedented rate of success Rhine's re-
search gained the attention of scientific and popular audi-
ences [47]. At first scientists were at a loss about how to
react. Many scientists, as a result of reading Rhine's work,
were encouraged to try to replicate the results. A few got
encouraging results, but most failed.
The first attacks by the critics were aimed at Rhine's
statistical procedures. As it turned out, some of Rhine's
statistical procedures were technically incorrect, but, for the
most part, his results could not be explained away as due to
inappropriate statistical procedures. The critics turned out
to be wide off the mark in many of their accusations. On the
whole, however, the statistical debate led to constructive
developments and improved clarification about the proper
use of statistical procedures in such experiments [47].
Having essentially lost the statistical battle, the critics
then turned to Rhine's experimental controls. Here, he was
much more vulnerable. And, ironically, it was the British
psychical research community that had anticipated the
critics and which provided the sharpest critiques of Rhine's
methods [47]. The British parapsychologists were astonished
both by Rhine's apparent ease in finding successful percipi-
ents as well as his claims that clairvoyance worked as well
as telepathy. With only a few exceptions, they had found
only evidence for telepathy. And their experience had con-
vinced them that telepathic powers were very rare. While
they welcomed Rhine's contribution, they were quick to
point out many of its defects, especially Rhine's inadequate
description of his procedures and the seeming casualness
of his experiments.
During the 1930s, nevertheless, Rhine's work as reported
in Extra-Sensory Perception, was hailed by parapsycholo-
gists as the best scientific case for ESP ever put before the
world. Today, as I understand it, most parapsychologists,
although they acknowledge its seminal influence on the
development of the field, dismiss much of Rhine's earlier
work as nonevidential because of its loose controls, poorly
made target materials, and inadequate documentation.
S. G. SOAL
Rhine's strongest critic among the British parapsycholo-
gists was the mathematician S. G. Soal. just prior to the
appearance of Rhine's monograph, Soal had conducted a
huge series of card-guessing experiments with only chance
results. But the experiments for which Soal became most
renowned began as a direct response to Rhine's mono-
After five years of heroic research, Soal was sure that he
had succeeded only in demonstrating the laws of chance. A
colleague, however, persuaded him to check for a certain
trend in his data. And this resulted in a new series of
experiments that for almost 25 years were hailed as the
most convincing and fraud-proof demonstration of ESP ever
achieved. Because the experiment and results seemed so
impressive, some critics, in a way reminiscent of Carpenter's
attacks upon Wallace and Crookes and within the spirit of
Sidgwick's False D chotomy, openly accused Soal of fraud
on no other basis than that his results were too good. Other
critics attacked hir: on grounds that were irrelevant. As it
turns out the critics were right, but for the wrong reasons!
As soon as Soal heard about Rhine's successful American
research, he began an ambitious program to replicate
Rhine's findings ir England. Soal started late in 1934 and
continued his experiments for five years. At the end he had
accumulated 128350 guesses for 160 percipients. This is
almost 30 percer: more guesses than Rhine had ac-
Cumulated for his *934 monograph. Soal was sure that he
had removed all'the flaws and weaknesses that had
characterized Rhine's work. Unfortunately, Soal found that
this enormous effort yielded "little evidence of a direct
kind that the persons tested, whether considered as individ-
uals or in the mass, possessed any faculty for either
clairvoyance or telepathy" (quoted in [49]).
Soal reported these results to a stunned parapsychologi-
cal world in 1940. At the same time another British para-
psycholgist, Whately Carington, reported the results of
telepathy experiments which seemed to show a "displace-
ment effect." Instead of achieving hits on the target, his
subjects seemed to achieve above chance matches when
their guesses were matched with either the immediately
preceding or the next target in the series. Carington asked
Soal to check his data to see whether he, too, might find
such a displacement effect [49].
Soal was reluctant to do so. He told Goldney that he
thought Carington's request was preposterous and he wasn't
going to waste his time going through his huge batch of
records. But Carington persisted and Soal finally agreed.
Soal found, among the records of his 160 percipients, two
who seemed to show Carington's displacement effect. Al-
though this finding was published, presumably Soal real-
ized that such a post hoc finding had to be replicated [49].
Fortunately, one of his two percipients, Basil Shackleton,
was available for testing during the years 1941 through
1943. With the collaboration of K. M. Goldney, 40 sittings
which yielded a total of 11 378 guesses were obtained with
Shackleton during this difficult period when England was at
war. As had been the case with the original testing,
Shackleton's guesses were at chance level when compared
with the actual target, but when compared with the symbol
coming up immediately after the target (precognitive hit-
ting), Shackleton's guesses yielded 2890 successes as com-
pared with the 2308 expected by chance. The odds against
this being a chance occurrence were calculated to be more
than 1035 to 1 [50].
In 1945 Soal was able to begin experimenting on the
second percipient who had displayed the displacement
effect in the original data, Mrs. Gloria Stewart. He was able
to accumulate a total of 37 100 guesses during 130 separate
sittings. Unlike Shackleton's or her own previous perfor-
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837

mance, her hitting this time was on the actual target rather
than on the Approved For Release 2003/04/18 50IA-RDP96-00789R0031000300014ine's severest critics, :
managed to achieve 9410 hits which were 1990 more hits
than would be expected by chance. The odds against such
a result were calculated as 100 to 1 [50].
Soal's stated objective was to make these experiments
completely error-free and fraudproof. The basic procedure,
which was varied slightly on occasion, was as follows. The
percipient-Basil Shackleton or Gloria Stewart-sat in one
room monitored by one of the experimenters (EP). In an
adjoining room, the sender or agent sat at table opposite
the second experimenter (EA). The door between the rooms
was slightly open so that the percipient could hear EA's call
as to when to make his or her guess. The percipient, of
course, could see neither the agent or EA. A screen, with a
small aperture separated the agent and EA. For each block
of 50 trials EA had before him a list of randomized numbers
which determined the target for each trial. Each number
could range from 1 to 5. If the target number for the first
trial was, say, 3, EA would hold up a card with the number. 3
on it so that it could be seen by the agent through the
aperture. The agent had lying before him in a row, five
cards. Each card had a different drawing of an animal on it:
elephant, giraffe, lion, pelican, and zebra. Before each block
of trials, the agent shuffled the order of the picture cards. If
EA held up a card with 3 on it, the agent would turn up the
third card and concentrate upon the animal depicted on it.
The percipient would then try to guess which animal was
being "sent" and write his guess for that trial in the corre-
sponding place on the response sheet. After every block of
50 trials, the agent reshuffled the target cards so that, for
that block, only the agent knew which animal corre-
sponded with which number.
In addition to this rather elaborate arrangement, indepen-
dent observers were invited to attend many of the sittings.
Several professors and a member of parliament were among
the observers. On some blocks of trials, unknown to the
percipient, the agent did not look at the symbols. This was
a test for clairvoyance. Other variations were introduced
from time to time. The experiments with Gloria Stewart,
while following the same pattern, were admittedly not as
_carefully controlled. Special precautions were also intro-
duced to ensure that the prepared target sequences could
not be known to agent or percipient in advance. And
careful safeguards were introduced during the recording of
the results and the matching of the targets against the
guesses. Duplicates of all records were made and posted
immediately after each session to a well-known academic.
Never before had so many safeguards been introduced
into an ESP experiment. With so many individuals involved,
and with prominent observers freely observing, any form of
either unwitting cueing or deliberate trickery would seem
to be just about impossible. If fraud of any sort were to be
suspected, it would seemingly require, under the stated
conditions, the active collusion of several prominent in-
dividuals. Beyond these safeguards, Soal randomized his
targets, instituted sophisticated checks for randomness, and
used the most appropriate statistical procedures. Despite
these elaborate precautions, the two subjects managed to
consistently score above chance over a number of years.
Soal's findings were hailed as definitive by the para-
psychological community and were so good that the rest of
the scientific community, including the skeptics, could not
man who had spent many years meticulously conducting
enormous card-guessing experiments with only chance re-
sults, a man who was by profession a mathematician. ang
an experimenter who had seemingly taken even know-
precaution to guard against every loophole and possibili :.
of error, who suddenly demonstrated highly successful tele-
pathic and precognitive results over sustained periods c
time with two percipients.
Whately Carington, the parapsychologist who convince:
Soal to re-examine his seemingly unsuccessful results, ISTO:
(as quoted in [51]):
Mr. Soal is a most remarkable man, or whose work . have
the highest possible admiration. Possessed of a more than
Jobian patience, and a conscientiousness, thoroughiness
which I can only describe as almost pathological, he worked
in various branches of the subject for many years with
nothing but a succession of null results to show for it .. .
Hoping to repeat Rhine's experiments in England. he tested
160 persons, collecting 128350 Zener card guesses single-
handed, and using the most elaborate precautions against
every possible source of error ... If I had to choose one
single investigation on which to pin my whole faith in the
reality of paranormal phenomena, or with which to con-
vince a hardened skeptic (if this be not a contradiction in
terms), I should unhesitatingly choose this series of experi-
ments, which is the most cast-iron piece of work I know, 25
well as having yielded the most remarkable results.
Similar sentiments were expressed by virtualy eve-
parapsychologist who commented on this work. As just one
illustration, R. A. McConnell [52] phrased it as follows:
As a report to scientists this is the most important book on
parapsychology since the 1940 publication of Extra-Sensory
Perception After Sixty Years. If scientists will read it care-
fully, the 'ESP controversy' will be ended.
G. R. PRICE'S CRITIQUE
Ironically, some critical scientists did read it carefull:
but, contrary to McConnell's prognosis, the controversy di:
not end. Indeed, one of the first major reviews in a scier -
tific journal raised the controversy to new heights. A -
though the Shackleton experiments had originally bee-
reported by Soal and Goldney in the Proceedings of the
Society for Psychical Research in 1943, the scientific worl
did not become aware of those experiments until they were
reported along with the later experiments with Glorie
Stewart in the 1954 book Modern Experiments in Telepath?
by Soal and Bateman [50].
What fueled the controversy was an unprecedented re-
view article, nine pages in length, appearing in Science, the
prestigious journal of the American Association for the
Advancement of Science. On August 26, 1955 George F.
Price's article on "Science and the Supernatural" was the
only feature article for that issue. Price, who as far as I car
tell had never before written on parapsychology, was de-
scribed as being a research associate in the Department of
Medicine at the University of Minnesota.
Price began his controversial article by stating that, "Be-
lievers in psychic phenomena-such as telepathy, clai :-
voyance, precognition, and psychokinesis-appear to have
won a decisive victory and virtually silenced opposition'
[53]. Price writes that such a victory has seemed close in the
past, but always critics have managed to find flaws. Bur.
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Price sees the time at which he is writing as unique because
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during the preceding 15 years [53].
The victory is the result of an impressive amount of careful
experimentation and intelligent argumentation. The best of
the card-guessing experiments of Rhine and Soal show enor-
mous odds against chance occurrence, while the possibility
of sensory clues is often eliminated by placing cards and
percipient in separate buildings far apart. Dozens of experi-
menters have obtained positive results in ESP experiments,
and the mathematical procedures have been approved by
leading statisticians.
I suspect that most scientists who have studied the work
of Rhine (especially as i: is presented in Extra-Sensory Per-
ception After Sixty Years .... and Soal (described in Modern
Experiments in Telepathy) .... have found it necessary to
accept their findings
Against all this evidence, almost
the only defense remaining to the skeptical scientist is
ignorance, ignorance concerning the work itself and con-
cerning its implications. The typical scientist contents him-
self with retaining in his memory some crit cism that at most
applies to a small fraction of the published studies. But
these findings (which challenge our very concepts of space
and time) are-if valid-of enormous importance, both
philosophically and practically, so they ought not to be
ignored.
Price then elaborates upon a suggested scheme, using
redundancy coding, which would make ESP useful, even if
it is a very weak and erratic form of communication. He
then presents his version of Hume's argument against
miracles. He quotes Tom Paine's more succinct version of
the same argument, " ... is it more probable that nature
should go out of her course, or that a man should tell a lie?"
To justify using Hume's argument as his only grounds for
accusing the parapsychologists of cheating, Price first tries
to show that if ESP were real it would violate a number of
fundamental principles underlying all the sciences. Some of
these principles are that the cause must precede the effect,
signals are attenuated by distance, signals are blocked by
appropriate shielding, and so forth. ESP, according to Price,
if it exists, violates all these principles. Then Price puts forth
reasons why he considers ESP to be a principle of magic
rather than merely a previously undiscovered new law of
nature. "The essential characteristic of magic is that phe-
nomena occur that can most easily be explained in terms of
action by invisible intelligent beings ... The essence of
science is mechanism."
These lengthy considerations back up Price's solution to
coping with the challenge of parapsychological claims [53]:
My opinion concerning the findings of the parapsychologists
is that many of them are dependent on clerical and statis-
tical errors and unintentional use of sensory clues, and that
all extrachance results not so explicable are dependent on
deliberate fraud or mildly abnormal mental conditions.
Actually, nothing is novel or startling about Price's opin-
ion. The same opinion, stated in just about the same words,
probably is held by all skeptics. Price has carried his opin-
ion beyond skepticism, however. The thrust of his article is
that the best research in parapsychology as exemplified in
the work of Rhine and Soal cannot be dismissed on the
basis of "clerical and statistical error and unintentional use
of sensory clues." Therefore, he concludes that the results
of this otherwise exemplary research must be due to fraud.
He does not feel that he requires any evidence of fraud.
Hume's argument against miracles gives him sufficient
license. Price's position, of course, no longer belongs to
is that no research, no matter how well done, can convince
him of ESP.
But Price does not want to go to quite that extreme. He
says that he still car be convinced provided that the
parapsychologists can supph him with just one successfu
outcome from a tru !: fraucproof experiment. "What is
needed is one completely co-vincing experiment - ust one
experiment that does not have to be accepted simply or
the basis of faith in -umar. honesty. We should require
evidence of such nature the: it would convince us even i.
we knew that the chief experimenter was a stage conjure.
or a confidence man.'
But does not the Scal experimen: with Shackleton anc
Stewart meet this criterion? !. o, says Price, because he car
imagine scenarios in which cheating could have taker
place. Price then presents a number of possible ways tha:
he feels cheating cous have occurred in the Soa: experi-
ments [53].
I do not claim that I know how Soal created if he did cheat.
but if I were myself to attempt to dup. cate his results. this is
how I would proceed .. First of all. : would seek a few
collaborators, preferatw people with good memories. The
more collaborators I ted, the easier it would be to perform
the experiments, but ine greiter would be the risk ci dis-
closure. Weighing these two considerations together. I'd
want four confederates to imitate the Shackleton experi-
ments. For imitating .e. Stewart seres, I'd probably war:
three or four-although it is impossible to be certain, be-
cause the Stewart sitt ags have not been reported in much
detail. In recruiting. I would aspeal nc: to desire for fame or
material gain but to the noblest motives, arguing that much
good to humanity could result from a small deception
designed to strengther religious belief.
After providing a sampling of scenarios in which cheating
could have occurred, al involving the collusion of three of
more investigators, participarts and onlookers, Price sup-
plies some designs of what he would consider to be a
satisfactory test. The key to al his designs involves a com-
mittee. "Let us somewhat arbitrarily think of a committee
of 12 and design tests such that the presence of a single
honest man on the 'jury' wil ensure validity of the test.
even if the other 11 member's should cooperate in frauc
either to prove or disprove occurrence of psi phenomena."
Perhaps if some enterprising group of scientists col-
laborated and conducted an ESP experiment with positive
results according to one of Price's approved designs, the
outcome might very well convince him. But I do not think
it would, nor should it, convince the majority of skeptical
scientists. Without going into all its other faults, a single
experiment-no matter how elaborate or allegedly
fraudproof-is simply a unique event. Scientific evidence is
based on cumulative and rep'icable events across laborato-
ries and investigators. The rubbish heap of scientific history
contains many examples of seemingly air-tight experiments
whose results have been discarded because later scientists
could not replicate the results. The experiments on mito-
genetic radiation would be just one example. No one has
found fault with the original experiments. But since later
experimenters could not replicate the results, the original
experiments have been cast aside. Can anyone doubt that
this would not also happen to a successful, but nonrep-
licable, ESP outcome from one of Price's "satisfactory tests?"
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Price tells us, "that I myself believed in ESP about 15
Years, but I changed my mind when I became acquainted
with the argument presented by David Hume in his chapter
'Of miracles' in An Enquiry Concerning Human Under-
starding." So Hume supplies him with his escape hatch.
But all this seems unnecessarily dramatic. Price has fallen
into a particularly stark version of the False Dichotomy. He
has been forced into the very position that Henry Sidgwick
warted for the critics. The best ESP evidence is so good that
either the critic must admit the reality of psi or accuse the
prozonents of lying and fraud. In falling into this trap, one
tha: critics from the days of Hare and Crookes right up to
the present keep falling into, Price has needlessly attributed
to the Rhine and Soal results a level of evidential value
which they cannot carry. At the same time, Price has im-
plies that he is sufficiently expert in parapsychological
research that he can infallibly judge when a given outcome
unquestionably supports the conclusions of the experi-
merters. In fact, I doubt that even the parapsychologists are
reac. to give such power to a single experiment, even one
so seemingly well-conducted as Soa''s.
Price writes as if, when confronted with experimental
evicence for psi, such as can be obtained by reading Extra-
Sensory Perception After Sixty Years or Modern Experiments
in Telepathy, he must immediately a) find ways to reject
the findings on the basis of possible sensory leakage, statis-
tica artifacts, or loose experimenta' controls; or b) accept
the outcome as proof of psi; or c) accuse the investigators
of :aud if he can imagine some scenario, no matter how
corrolex and unlikely, under which fraud could have oc-
curred. Price just does not understand either parapsycho-
logical research or scientific research in general if he truly
believes these are the only alternatives open to him. Unfor-
tunately, Price is behaving like many of the other out-
sporen critics of psychical research. To Price's credit, he has
at least tried to make his basis for action explicit.
Both Rhine and Soal, in their responses to Price's critique,
eagerly accepted Price's implicit endorsement of their ex-
perimental procedures. Soal commented that, "It is very
significant and somewhat comforting to learn that Price
adrrits that 'most of Soal's work' cannot be accounted for
by any combination of statistical artifact and sensory
leakage" [54]. Soal also examined in detail Price's various
proposed schemes for faking the experiments [54]:
Frice goes to great length in devising variations on this
theme, but they all depend on the Agent being in collusion
with the chief Experimenter or with the Percipient. Now
four of the Agents with whom Mrs. Stewart was highly
successful were lecturers of high academic standing at Queen
Mary College in the University of London. Two were senior
lecturers and the other two were mathematicians who had
cone distinguished creative work. A fifth Agent who was
trilliantly successful over a long period was a senior civil
servant, in fact an assistant director of mathematical ex-
aminations in the Civil Service. Now is it plausible to sup-
pose that I, as chief Experimenter, could persuade any of
these men to enter into a stupid and pointless collusion to
fake the experiments over a period of years? What had any
of them to gain from such deplorable conduct? If I had gone
to any of them and suggested (as Price recommends) that in
¿ good cause a little deception would do no harm, I know
quite plainly that the result would have been a first-class
scandal in university circles.
Rhine found even more solace in Price's attack. "Strange
though it may seem, the publication of the George Price
paper ... is, on the whole. a good event for parapsychology
tion on parapsychology before the scientific community
Rhine also felt Price's vivid portrayal of the potential impor-
tance of ESP was valuable. He welcomed Price's effective
rebuttal against the standard criticisms against ESP. An:
Rhine especially liked the fact that Price focusses on the
point that psi was incompatible with the materalism c.
science [55]:
[Price) even more than any other critical reviewer gives
indication of having telt the force of the evidence var ESP.
When he turns then-albeit a bit too emotionally -and sa-s
that, according to the current concept of nature. ESP is
impossible and therefore the parapsychologists must all be
fakers, he at least draws the issue where it can be stuare.tv
met. The answer of the parapsychologist is: "Yes. either the
presen: mechanistic theory of man is wrong-that is runde-
mentally incomplete-or, of course, the parapsychologists
are all utterly mistake -. " One of these opponents is wrong.
take it. now, from the pages of Science! This recogn "on of
the issue gives point to the findings of parapsycholor. in a
way none can easily miss.
Notice that Rhineland Price agree on some aspects of this
controversy. Both Rhire and Price believe that if tre claims
of parapsychology are correct the foundations of science
are seriously threatened. Rhine welcomes such a destrus-
tion of what he calls materialism. Price seems willing :
take the most drastic measures to avoid this overthrow :"
what he calls the basic limiting principles. (Not all para-
psychologists agree with Rhine that the acceptance ci ps
need be inconsistent with scientific materialism.) One issue
involves what it means for contemporary science o acces:
the reality of psi. This concerns matters that are current"
controversial among philosophers of science. An: so. it s
probably not fruitful to attempt to deal with them here.
Rhine and Price also agree that the standard argument
against parapsychological evidence do not hold up Accors-
ing to reasonable scientific criteria, the evidence for psi s
more than adequate. And so it is at this point that bo ::
Rhine and Price want to have the showdown. Price, as :
defende: of the materialistic faith, puts all his money on the
hope that the parapsychologists have faked the data. he
has no evidence to back this claim. But if he can invert
possible scenarios wherebye trickery might have been cor-
mitted in a given experiment, then he believe: he ca -.
under license from David Hume, assume that fraud mus.
have taken place. He is not completely dogmatic about the.
If the parapsychologist can come up with positive results n
at least one experiment conducted under what Frice co --
siders to be fraudproof conditions, then Price nas cor-
mitted himself to accept the consequences.
Many issues are raised by Price's dramatic confrontational
posturing. At this point, I will just mention one. Frice goss
beyond conventional scientific practice when he Empowers
a given experiment with the ability to prove the existen :=
of psi. Once we realize that no experiment by itself dei-
nitely establishes or disproves a scientific claim, then Prices
extreme remedies to save his image of science become
unnecessary. No matter how well-designed and seemingy
flawless a given experiment, there is always the possibile,
that future considerations will reveal previously unforseen
loopholes and weaknesses.
Indeed, a careful analysis of the Soal experiment wil
reveal a variety of weaknesses. For example, in spite of tre
number of observers and experimenters, Soal always had
control over the prepared target sequences or over the
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little weight in the face of the evcence. We can rarely
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basic recording. And hoth Shackleton and Stewart only
produced successful results when
occasion, without informing Soal, his co-investigator Mrs.
Goldney conducted a sitting with Shackleton. The outcome
was unsuccessful. The American parapsychologist J. G. Pratt
ran a series of experiments with Mrs. Stewart without Soal's
presence. No evidence for psi was found. And whereas all
Rhine's results showed no difference between telepathic
and clairvoyance trials, both Shackleton and Mrs. Stewart
produced successful results only on telepathic trials. Fur-
thermore, in spite of the much vaunted measures to guard
against sensory leakage, the actual experimental setup, when
carefully considered, offered a variety of possibilities for
just such unwitting communication.
None of the foregoing considerations, in themselves,
account for Soal's findings. But they make superflous, I
would argue, the hasty assumption that the findings can
only be explained either by psi or some elaborate form of
dishonest collusion.
THE DISCREDITING OF SOAL
As it turns out, if Soal did cheat-and it now seems
almost certain that he did, he almost certainly did so in
ways not envisaged by either Price or Hansel. The scenarios
generated by these two critics involved collusion among
several of the principals. Soal apparently managed the fraud
entirely on his own, or, at most, with the collusion of one
other person. Furthermore, he probably used a variety of
different ways to accomplish his goals.
If it had not been for a series of seemingly fortuitous
events, Soal's experiment might still occupy the honored
place in the parapsychologists' exhibits of evidence for psi
[56]-[60]. The discrediting of Soal's data occurred through a
number of revelations during the period from 1955 through
1978. Up until 1978 the accumulation of evidence sug-
gested that something was highly suspicious about the
records in the Shakleton experiments. The case was strong
enough to discredit Soals' results in the judgment of some
leading parapsychologists, but many others still defended
Soal's findings.
The final blow to the credibility of Soal's results came in
1978 when Betty Markwick published her article "The
Soal-Goldney experiments with Basil Shackleton: New evi-
dence of data manipulation" [60]. As with the previous
revelations of peculiarities in the data, Markwick's stunning
findings arose out of a series of fortuitious incidents.
The story is much too complicated to relate here. Essen-
tially, Markwick had begun a rather elaborate project to
clear Soal of the accumulating charges that he had tampered
with the data. Her plan involved searching the records with
the aid of a computer to find subtle patterns which, if they
existed, would account for the anomalies found by the
critics and would vindicate Soal. Markwick did not find
such patterns. Instead, she discovered previously unnoticed
patterns that could be accounted for if one assumed that
Soal had used a sophisticated plan for inserting "hits" into
the records while he was apparently summarizing and
checking the results. Reluctantly, she was forced to con-
clude that only the hypothesis of deliberate tampering with
the data could explain her findings [60].
Protestations to the effect that Soal, a respected scientist,
would not have cheated in his own experiments-and
that anyway the rigorous experimental conditions in the
Shackleton series precluded fraud-seem to me to carry
was as clever. It is futile to argue Mit the prison cell is
escape-proof when the inmate has clearly gone.
Markwick, obviously dismayed at having discovered that
Soal almost certainly faked his data suggests two possible
explanations for why he might have done so. One of her
hypotheses made use of the well-known fact that Soal
sometimes did automatic writing ? a dissociated state
Markwick suggested the possibility that Soal may have had
a split personality and that the cheating was done by his
other self.
Markwick's second hypothesis involved data massage and
has more universal psychological passibility (although it is
not necessarily inconsistent with the first hypothesis). She
assumes that Soal's enormous accumulation of negative ES?
findings were obtained legit matel: She also assumes that
his post hoc finding of consistent displacement effects in
the data of Basil Shackletor and Coria Stewart was also
legitimate [60].
Having embarked upon the Shack eton series, one may
imagine the scoring rate begins to ide (as ESP scores are
wont to do after the initial flush of success). Soal, seeing the
chance slipping away of ganing s: entific recognition for
Parapsychology, a cause in which te passionately believes.
succumbs to the temptation of "'re: fying" a "temporary"
deficiency.
Markwick's second scenario is consistent with known
patterns in which scientists have tampered with their data
[61], [62]. The components appear :5 be: 1) the investigator
believes, on the basis of previous experience, that the
phenomenon under investigation is "real"; 2) for some
unknown reason his current research fails to reveal the
phenomenon; 3) if he reports megative results his readers
might wrongly believe that the phenomenon does not exist:
4) as a result, the "truth" and assumed positive conse-
quences of the phenomenon might be lost to humanity.
Given these ingredients, it takes a very small step for the
investigator to convince himself that he is helping both the
truth and a good cause along by doctoring his data.
William James, with reference to his experiences in psy-
chical research, suggested that cheating in order to con-
vince others of the "reality" you know to be the case might
be defensible. James discussed this matter in his last essay
on psychical research. He referred to the policy of English
investigators to consider a medium who has been caught
cheating as one who always cheats. He indicated that he
thought this had generally been a wise policy [2].
But, however wise as a policy the S.P.R.'s maxim may have
been, as a test of truth I believe it 15 be almost irrelevant. In
most things human the accusation of deliberate fraud and
falsehood is grossly superficial. Man's character is too so-
phistically mixed for the alternative of "honest or dishonest"
to be a sharp one. Scientific men themselves will cheat-at
public lectures-rather than liet experiments obey their
well-known tendency towards failure.
James gave two examples of such cheating. And then
revealed the following about his own behavior [2]:
To compare small men with great, I have myself cheated
shamelessly. In the early days of the Sanders Theater at
Harvard, I once had charge of a heart on the physiology of
which Professor Newell Martin was giving a popular lecture.
This heart, which belonged to a turtle, supported an index-
straw which threw a moving shadow, greatly enlarged, upon
the screen, while the heart pulsated. When certain nerves
were stimulated, the lecturer said, the heart would act in
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certain ways Apportovest For Release 2003/04/18 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003/100030091-4aningless and uninter-
far gone and, although it stopped duly when the nerve of
arrest was excited, that was the final end of its life's tether.
Presiding over the performance, I was terrifed at the fiasco,
and found myself suddenly acting like one of those military
geniuses who on the field of battle convert disaster into
victory. There was no time for deliberation; so, with my
forefinger under a part of the straw that cast no shadow, I
found myself impulsively and automatically imitating the
rhythmical movements which my colleague had prophesied
the heart would undergo. I kept the experiment from failing;
and not only saved my colleague (and the turtle) from
humiliation that but for my presence of mind would have
been their lot, but I established in the audience the true
view of the subject. The lecturer was stating this; and the
misconduct of one half-dead specimen of heart ought not to
destroy the impression of his words. "There is no worse lie
than a truth misunderstood," is a maxim which I have heard
ascribed to a former venerated President of Harvard. The
heart's failure would have been misunderstood by the audi-
ence and given the lie to the lecturer. It was hard enough to
make them understand the subject anyhow; so that even
now as I write in cool blood I am tempted to think that I
acted quite correctly. I was acting for the larger truth, at any
rate, however automatically ... To this day the memory of
that critical emergency has made me feel charitable towards
all mediums who make phenomena come in one way when
they won't come easily in another. On the principles of the
S.P.R., my conduct on that one occasion ought to discredit
everything I ever do, everything, for example, I may write in
this article-a manifestly unjust conclusion.
I wonder if James would have approved of the way
William Crookes covered up the cheating of the medium
Mary Showers in behalf of "the larger truth?" Mary Showers,
a young medium, conducted at least one joint seance with
Florence Cook in Crookes' home. Apparently Crookes had
several other sittings with Mary. Daniel Home presumably
heard rumors that Crookes might be having an affair with
the young Mary Showers. Crookes wrote a letter to Home
explaining how the scandal had originated [63].
According to Crookes he had obtained a complete confes-
sion from Mary Showers in her own handwriting that her
phenomena were wholly dependent upon trickery and the
ocassional use of an accomplice. Crookes said, however,
that he had undertaken not to reveal the fact that Mary was
fraudulent even to her own mother, because of "the very
great injury which the cause of truth would suffer if so
impudent a fraud were to be publicly exposed."
THE POST-RHINE ERA
Rhine's card-guessing paradigm dominated experimental
parapsychology from 1934 to at least the 1960s. Since the
1960s card-guessing experiments have played a minor role.
Contemporary parapsychologists have deviated from Rhine's
paradigm in a variety of ways. In Rhine's paradigm both the
possible targets and the possible responses are severely
restricted. The targets consist of five, deliberately neutral
and simple, symbols. And, on each trial, the percipient is
restricted to calling out the name of one of these possible
five symbols. From a strictly methodological viewpoint these
restrictions have several advantages. Most percipients have
no strong preferences for any of the symbols; randomizing
of targets is straightforward; scoring of hits and misses is
unambiguous; and the statistical calculations are fairly
standard.
But these same features have been blamed by contem-
porary investigators for the lack of impressive findings since
the spectacular scoring reported by Rhine in 1934 [46].
esting, the repetitive guessing over many trials is boring
and, according to the parapsychologists, contributes to both
a lack of motivation and emotional involvement which
might be needed for the effective functioning of psi.
As a result, one break with the past is the increased use
of more complex and meaningful targets such as reproduc-
tions of paintings, travel slides, geographical locations, and
emotionally laden photographs. In addition, instead of the
forced-choice procedure of the card-guessing, most experi-
menters allow free-responding on the part of their percipi-
ents. Percipients are encouraged, on a given trial, to free-
associate and describe, both in words and in drawings,
whatever comes to mind. The use of free responses com-
plicates enormously the problems of scoring and statistical
analysis. But parapsychologists believe the added complica-
tions are a small pride to pay if the newer procedures
produce better psychic functioning.
Along with the free-response designs, parapsychologists
have renewed their interest in the possibility that psychic
functioning may be enhanced in altered states such as
dreaming, hypnosis, meditation, sensory-deprived states,
and progressive relaxation. The basic idea is that these
altered states greatly reduce or block attention to external
sensory information while, at the same time, increasing
attention to internal mentation. Under such conditions it is
hypothesized that the psi signal is easier for the percipient
to detect because it has less competition from sensory
inputs [64]. One survey of 87 experiments in which percipi-
ents were in an altered state found that 56 percent reported
significant hitting of targets [65].
Another departure from the Rhine paradigm was stimu-
lated by developments in electronic technology. Psi experi-
ments employing Random Event Generators began in the
1970s. Electronic equipment could be used to generate
random targets as well as automatically record the percipi-
ent's responses and keep running tallies of the hits. Al-
though such equipment has been used to test ESP, the most
widespread use has been in the study of psychokinesis. In
such experiments an operator or "psychic" attempts to bias
the output of a random event generator by mental means
alone. In 1980, May, Humphrey, and Hubbard found reports
of 214 such experiments, "74 of which show statistical
evidence for an anomalous perturbation-a factor of nearly
seven times chance expectation" [66].
A third major departure has been the so-called "Remote
Viewing" paradigm [22], [24], [28], [67], [68]. The claims
made for the ability of this procedure to consistently dem-
onstrate ESP with a variety of percipients are perhaps the
strongest ever put forth by parapsychologists [28].
Our laboratory experiments suggest to us that anyone who
feels comfortable with the idea of having paranormal ability
can have it ... . In our experiments, we have never found
anyone who could not learn to perceive scenes, including
buildings, roads, and people, even those at great distances
and blocked from ordinary perception ... . We have, as of
this writing, carried out successful remote viewing experi-
ments with about twenty participants, almost all of whom
came to us without any prior experience, and in some cases,
with little interest in psychic functioning. So far, we cannot
identify a single individual who has not succeeded in a
remote viewing task to his own satisfaction.
In a more recent assessement of remote viewing, Targ
and Harary assert, "In laboratories across this country, and
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have investigated remote viewing. Twenty-three of these
investigations have reported successful results and pro-
duced statistically significant data, where three would be
expected" [68].
A fourth emphasis has been the study of personality
correlates of the alleged psi ability [46].
In addition to the experimental programs on altered
states, random event generators, remote viewing, and per-
sona ity correlates contemporary parapsychologists have
been actively doing research in other areas. The various
chapters in the Handbook of Parapsychology provide a
good idea of the range of topics [48]. The research on
reincarnation, survival after death, paranormal photography,
psychic metal bending, poltergeist phenomena, hauntings,
and faith healing, while admittedly colorful, does not de-
serve the serious attention of scientists-at least not in its
current state. I suspect that most serious parapsychologists
would also not want to rest their case on such research.
Today the parapsychologists who want the scientific
establishment to take their work seriously do not offer for
inspection the evidence that previous generations of psy-
chic researchers believed was sufficient-the findings of
Hare. Wallace, Crookes, Gurney, Rhine, or Soal. Nor do
they offer up the reports on reincaration, psychic healing,
pararormal photography, spoon bending, psychic detec-
tion, and the related phenomena which so readily appeals
to the media and the public. Instead, they ask us to look at
the trends and patterns which they find in research pro-
grams carried out in a variety of different parapsychological
laboratories.
Two aspects of this new type of claim are worth noting.
One is the admission that a single investigation, no matter
how seemingly rigorous and fraud-proof, cannot be accept-
able as scientific evidence. The idea of a single "critical
experiment" is a myth. The second, and related, aspect is
that replicability is now accepted as the critical requirement
for admission into the scientific marketplace.
Both proponents and critics have previously assumed,
eithe- tacitly or explicitly, that the outcome of a single
investigation could be critical. Sidgwick believed that the
results of the investigation of the Creery sisters were of this
nature. The evidence was so strong, he argued, that the
critics either had to now either accept the reality of telepa-
thy or accuse the investigators of fraud [30]. Carpenter,
rather than withhold judgment until independent investiga-
tors had either succeeded or failed in attempts to replicate
Crookes' experiments with Home, acted as if he either had
to agree to Crookes' claim or prove that Crookes had been
duped. Both Price and Hansel insisted that it would be
sufficient for Rhine and Soal to convince them of ESP if a
parapsychology could perform successfully a single "fraud-
proof" experiment.
The myth of the single, crucial experiment has resulted in
needless controversy and has contributed to the False Di-
chotomy. Flew is just one who has argued convincingly that
a single, unreplicated event which allegedly attests to a
miracle, is simply a historical oddity which cannot be part
of a scientific argument [3].
Apparently not all parapsychologists are convinced that
the achievement of a repeatable psi experiment is either
necessary or desirable for the advancement of parapsychol-
ogy. The late J. G. Pratt argued that, "Psi is a spontaneous
when it is going to occur in our carefully planned and
rigorously controlled experiments than we can in everyday
life psychic experiences
Predictable repeatability is
unattainable because of the nature of the phenomena" [69].
Pratt argued that parapsychology should give up the
quest for the replicable experiment-an impossible goal in
his opinion-and concentrate upon accumulating enough
data on anomalous happenings to convince scientists and
the public that psi is real. Other parapsychologists; how-
ever, realize that scientists are not going to be convinced
until some semblance of replicability has been achieved.
The late Gardner Murphy, while noting that replicability
was not necessary for scientific acceptability in some areas
of science, argued that for supporting claims for such irra-
tional phenomena as psi, replicability was necessary. And,
speaking as one of the dominant figures in parapsychology
in 1971, he made it clear that he felt that parapsychology
had a long way to go before it achieved replicable results
[70].
Perhaps Honorton's position represents the contem-
porary position of the major parapsychologists [71}:
Parapsychology will stand or fall on its ability to demon-
strate replicable and conceptually meaningful findings. Fu-
ture critics who are interested in the resolution rather than
the perpetuation of the psi controversy are advised to focus
their attention on systematic lines of research which are
capable of producing such findings.
PSI AND REPEATABILITY
As the preceding quotation indicates, Honorton believes
that critics should focus on "systematic lines of research"
which apparently display replicable and/or "conceptually
meaningful" findings. And, as we have seen, contemporary
parapsychologists have offered us a number of such sys-
tematic lines to demonstrate that they have, in fact, already
achieved the goals of repeatability and conceptual mean-
ingfulness. The claims put forth in behalf of the altered
state, random event generator, and remote viewing para-
digms have already been cited. Similar claims have been
made for work on correlates of psi such as attitudes and
personality [72].
What can we expect if a critic, in an effort to be open-
minded and responsible, accepts the challenge of Honorton
and his fellow parapsychologists to examine the accu-
mulated evidence from one or more of the "systematic
lines" of inquiry? This challenge opens up a variety of
possibilities. Which experiments should be included in the
evaluation? It is impractical to consider all the experiments
in parapsychology because even in this relatively sparsley
populated area the number is by now enormous. In just
considering a subset of experiments in the ESP area, Palmer,
for example, covered approximately 700 experimental re-
ports [72]. Including PK as well as ESP, I would estimate
that, today, a determined critic, who wants to evaluate
exhaustively all available experimental reports, might have
to cope with upwards of 3000 experiments. Given my
recent experience in trying to do justice to just 42 experi-
ments on the Ganzfeld psi phenomenon [73], I would
estimate that it could take a responsible critic over five
years of almost full-time effort to properly evaluate this
material.
Another problem facing both the proponent and critic is,
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.
met standards of scientific acceptability, but rather, he was
assigning flaApproved For Release 2003/04/18 CIA-RDP96-00789R0038000300014 close each of the iters
to have accounted for the results. And, finally, Akers did
in the pool are to the impressions that occurred to him or
her during the Ganzfeld session. The most typical scoring
procedure classifies the outcome as a "hit" if the percipierr
correctly judges the actual target as closest to the Ganzfed
impressions.
not consider the possibility that combinations of deficien-
cies, each in themselves being insufficient, might have
been more than enough to account for the reported find-
ings.
HYMAN'S CRITIQUE OF THE GANZFELD EXPERIMENTS
Although Akers' and my critiques were conducted inde-
pendently, and although our samples and procedures dif-
fered in many important ways, we came to essentially the
same conclusion. Ir. spite of claims for both scientific con-
firmation of psi and repeatibility within certain systematic
lines of research, both Akers and I concluded that the best
contemporary research in parapsychology does not survive
serious and careful scientific scrutiny. Parapsychology is not
yet ready to bring its case before the general scientific
public.
My approach was to look for a research program in
parapsychology tha: consisted of a series of experiments by
a variety of investigators and that was considered by para-
psychologists as especially promising. I quickly discovered a
systematic body of research which many of the leading
parapsychologists considered to be the most promising one
on the contemporary scene. This research program was
based on the Ganzield/psi paradigm.
The word "Ganzield" is German for total field. It is used
to describe a technique in the study of perception which
creates a visual field with no inhomogeneities. The motiva-
tion for creating such a visual field stems from certain
theoretical predictions of Gestalt psychology. A recently
developed and simple procedure for creating such a
Ganzfeld is to tape halves of ping pong balls over the eyes
of subjects. A bright light is then directed to the covered
eyes. The percipient experiences a visual field with no
discontinuities and describes the perceptual effect as like
being in a fog.
The parapsychologists became interested in the Ganzfeld
when it was reported that subjects who experience the
Ganzfeld quickly enter into a pleasant, altered state. They
adopted it as a quick and easy way to place percipients into
a state that they felt would be conducive to the reception
of psi signals. In a typical Ganzfeld/psi experiment, the
percipient has the pin pong balls taped over his eyes and
then is placed in a comfortable chair or reclines on a bed.
In addition to a bright light shining on the halved ping
pong balls, white noise or the sound of ocean surf is fed
into the percipient's ears through earphones."
After 15 min or so in this situation, the percipient is
presumed ready to receive the psi signal. An agent, in
another room or building, is given a target which is ran-
domly selected from a small pool, say, of four pictures (the
pool of pictures has been selected, in turn, by random
means from a large collection of such pools). The agent
concentrates or studies the target during a predetermined
time interval. At the same time the percipient, isolated in a
relatively sound-proofed chamber, freely describes all the
associations and impressions that occur to him during the
sending interval.
At the end of the session the halved ping pong balls are
removed. The pool of pictures for that trial, including the
target, are brought to the percipient. The percipient the-
In the typical experiment a pool of four target candidates
is used on each trial. Over a number of trials, the percip-
ents would be expected to achieve hits on 25 percent ti
the trials just by chance. If the actual rate of hitting s
significantly above this chance level, then it is assume:
given that proper
experimental controls have been er-
ployed, that ESP has probably operated.
Charles Honorton, the parapsychologist who first pu :-
lished a Ganzfeld/psi experiment [76] and who also his
strongly defended the paradigm as "psi conducive," re-
sponded to my request for cooperation by undertaking 1:
supply me with copies of every relevant report betwee-
1974-the date of the first published Ganzfeld/psi expe :-
ment-and the end of 1981-the year I made the reques.
In January 1982 I received a package containing 600 pages
of reports on the Ganzfeld/psi experiment.
The experiments in the database given to me for e :-
amination were extracted from 34 separate reports writte-
or published from 1974 through 1981. By Honorton's cour.
these 34 reports described 42 separate experiments. C-
these, he classified 23 as having achieved overall signi :-
cance on the primary measure of psi at the 0.05 level. Ths
successful replication rate of 55 percent is consistent wi :-
earlier estimates of success for this paradigm which range:
from 50 to 58 percent [73]. Approximately half of these
experiments had been published in refereed journals Er
monographs. The remainder had appeared only as abstracs
or papers delivered at meetings of the Parapsychologicii
Association. The studies had been authored by 47 different
investigators, many
of them prominent members of the
Parpsychological Association.
The details of my analysis and my conclusions have been
published in the Journal of Parapsychology [73]. The same
issue of that journal contains Honorton's detailed rebuttal
to my critique [77]. Here I will merely supply the barebones
of my critique.
1) I first examined the claim that the proportion of su :-
cessful replications of the Ganzfeld/psi experiment was 55
percent. This estimate, it turned out, was based upon a
number of questionable assumptions. Much ambiguity et-
ists as to what the unit of analysis should be. In some cases,
the individual experimental conditions within a single cor-
plicated experiment were each counted as separate "expe --
ments." In other cases, the pooled data over a number of
separate experimental conditions were counted as a singe
unit. That this can make a difference is shown by the fact
that when I tried to apply a consistent criterion to tre
database for determining individual units, I came up with a
success rate closer to 30 than to 50 percent. Other consider-
ations such as unknown experiments lead me to conclute
that the actual success rate, defining "success" according to
Honorton's criterion, was probably around 30 percent.
2) But even a success rate of 30 percent is impressive if
the actual rate of success to be expected by chance was the
assumed 5 percent. I pointed to a variety of examples in
which multiple tests were applied to the same data in such
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a way as to inflate the actual probability for success just by
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number of factors, I estimated that the actual chance level
could easily be 25 percent or higher.
3) In addition to analyses that inadvertently inflated the
significance levels, I noted a number of other departures
from optimal experimental procedure that could have artifi-
cially contributed to the outcomes. These flaws could be
clustered into three categories: Security, Statistical, and Pro-
cedural. Security flaws included failure to preclude sensory
cues as well as loose monitoring of critical aspects in the
experiment. Statistical flaws consisted of wrong use of
statistical procedures. Procedural flaws consisted of inade-
quate randomization of targets, incomplete documentation,
and possible problems at feedback. What was both surpris-
ing and dismaying to me was that not a single experiment
in the database was free from at least one of these defects.
These defects were chosen to be those that I assume most
parapsychologists would agree should not be part of a
well-conducted experiment.
4) 1 tried to make it clear that I was not assuming that
these flaws were the cause of the observed results. Rather, I
assumed that the presence of such defects could be taken
as a symptom that the experiment had not been conducted
with adequate care. Indeed, it was clear that at least some
of the experiments in the database had been intended to
serve only as pilot or preliminary experiments. Neverthe-
less, I did look at the correlation between the three clusters
and success of the experiment. Although the Security and
the Statistical clusters did not correlate with outcome, the
Procedural cluster did correlate with the probability of
obtaining a significant outcome. Honorton strongly dis-
agrees with this conclusion [77].
As a result of my detailed examination of the claims for
the Ganzfeld/psi findings, I concluded my long report as
follows [73]:
In conclusion, the current data base has too many problems
to be seriously put before outsiders as evidence for psi. The
types of problems exhibited by this data base, however,
suggest interesting challenges for the parapsychological
community. I would hope that both parapsychologists and
critics would wish to have parapsychological experiments
conducted according to highest standards possible. If one
goal is to convince the rest of the scientific community that
the parapsychologists can produce data of the highest qual-
ity, then it would be a terrible mistake to employ the current
Ganzfeld/psi data base for this purpose. Perhaps the Para-
psychological Association can lead the way by setting down
guidelines as to what should constitute an adequate con-
firmatory experiment. And, then, when a sufficient number
of studies have accumulated which meet these guidelines,
they can be presented to the rest of the scientific commun-
ity as an example of what parapsychology, at its best, can
achieve. If studies carried out according to these guidelines
also continue to yield results suggestive of psi, then the
outside scientific community should be obliged to take
notice.
Honorton, not surprisingly, disagrees with my conclu-
sions [77]. After my critique was completed, Honorton car-
ried out a revised and different analysis of the database. He
claims his new analysis eliminates my criticisms about in-
flated significance levels. Honorton also developed his own
scale for evaluating the methodological quality of each
experiment. According to his ratings, there is no correlation
between quality of the experiment and its outcome.
The problem that both of us face when judging the
this after the fact. Although we agree on several of our
ratings, we tend to disagree in ways which suggest our
presumed biases. Honorton tends to find more defects in
the unsuccessful experiments than I do. On the other hand,
I tend to find more defects in the successful experiments
than Honorton does. In the absence of double-blind :3 :-
ings, this aspect of our disagreement represents a stalemate.
However, whether one uses Honorton's or my ratings.
the number of departures from accepted mettodolog :al
procedure is unacceptably high for this database Although
Honorton and I disagree on whether the observed flaws
weaken the case for psi, we do not disagree that they ex st.
So far as I can tell, no parapsychologis: has provided an
explanation of why almost all of the experiments in :- 's
database have at least one of these flaws
CONCLUSIONS
With the exception of the contemporary parapsychologi-
cal literature, the evidence for psi reviewed in this paper
comes from investigations which today's parapsicholog s:s
would not put before us as part of their strongest case for
psi. Many of these parapsychologists might be eve I was
being unfair in dwelling upon these castoffs from the past.
But it is just this fact that the cases I have examined are
now castoffs which brings up important questions about
how to approach the contemporary evidence.
Each of the cases from the past which I mave discussed
were, in their own time, considered to be by the para-
psychologists of that day examples of scientifically sound
evidence for psi. It is only subsequent generations, for :ne
most part, who have set the preceding exempla's aside. in
some cases the reasons for the abandonment of what was
once a foundation stone in the case for psi are clear.
Subsequent investigators or critics found previously ure-
cognized defects in the studies or strong suspicions of
fraud had been generated. Other experimental paradigms
have disappeared from the database for less obvious rea-
sons.
Some previously successful paradigms have disappeared
because they no longer seem to yield significant results.
Others such as the sheep-goats design seem to tave simply
gone out of fashion. One major parapsychologis: once told
me that it seems to be the ultimate fate of ewvery successful
paradigm to eventually lose its ability to yield significant
results. He believed this was related to the fact that psi
depends both upon the novelty of the design and the
motivations of the experimenter. At first a new paradigm
generates excitement and optimism. But after i: has been
around for a while, the initial excitement and enthusiasm
abates and the experimenter no longer communicates the
original emotions that accompanied the paradigm when it
was still relatively new.
But, whatever the reason, each generation's best case for
psi is cast aside by subsequent generations of parapsycholo-
gists and are replaced with newer, more up-to-date best
cases. Not only does the evidence for psi lack replicability,
but, unlike the evidence from other sciences, it is non-
cumulative. It is as if each new generation wipes the slate
clean and begins all over again. Consequently, the eviden-
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tial database for psi is always shifting. Earlier cases are
dropped and replaced with newer and seemingly more
these paradigms.
promising HARPBOYSdaFR! Release 2003/04 18 : CIA-RDP96-007895003
paper argues that it is only partially true that parapsycho-
logical research is noncumulative. Although his argument
might have some validity, I do not think it changes the
point I am making here.]
The late J. G. Pratt, in challenging his parapsychological
colleagues' hopes for a repeatable experiment, wrote [69]:
Ore could almost pick a date at random since 1882 and find
in the literature that someone somewhere had recently
obtained results described in terms implying that others
should be able to confirm the findings. Among those per-
sons or groups reflecting such enthusiasm are the S.P.R.
Committee on Thought-Transference; Richard Hogson (in
his investigation of Mrs. Piper): Feilding, Baggally, and
Carrington (in their Palladino investigations); J. B. Rhine
(work reported in Extra-Sensory Perception); Whately
Carington (in his work on paranormal cognition of drawings);
Gertrude Schmedler (in her sheep-goat work); Van
Bussbach, and Anderson and White (in their research on
teacher-pupil attitudes); the Maimonedes dream studies; the
Stepanek investigators; the investigators of Kulagina's
directly-observable PK effects; research using the ganzfeld
technique; and the SRI investigators ("remote viewing").
One after another, however, the specific ways of working
used in these initially successful psi projects have fallen out
of favor and faded from the research scene-except for the
latest investigations which, one may reasonably suppose,
have not yet had enough time to falter and fade away as
others before them have done.
:
When Pratt wrote those words in 1978, the "latest investi-
gations" included the Ganzfeld/psi experiments, the Re-
mote Viewing investigations, and the PK research using
Random Event Generators. These would have been among
the contemporary investigations which, given Pratt's pessi-
mistic extrapolations, "one may reasonably suppose, have
not yet had enough time to falter and fade away as others
before them have done." Today, signs do seem to indicate
that these seemingly "successful" lines of research may be
much weaker than had been previously advertised [24], [74],
[75]
However, as always, new and more promising lines of
work seem to be ready to take their place. Honorton and
his colleagues at the Psychophysical Research Laboratories
in Princeton, NJ, seem to be developing a number of very
promising lines of research [78]. They have been developing
a completely automated version of the Ganzfeld experi-
ment which eliminates many of the problems raised by my
critique. They have also been perfecting a "transportable"
experiment-one that can be carried out by any investi-
gator who has access to an Apple personal computer. The
experiment, also completely automated, is a variation of the
Random Event Generator paradigm but with a variety of
built-in safeguards which apparently eliminate almost all
the options for multiple testing.
Nearby, but completely independent of the work going
on at the Psychophysical Laboratories, is the research on
anomalous phenomena being carried out by Robert Jahn
and his associates in the School of Engineering and Applied
Science at Princeton University [1], [79], [80]. For more than
five years Jahn and his associates have been perfecting the
instrumentation and experimental designs for conducting
sophisticated variations of both the remote viewing para-
digm and the PK work with random event generators.
Although they have collected large databases for each of
st of the work has been reported ony
1000309A1-4indings do seem impres-
sive, but they have yet to be described in sufficient dettil
for a full-scale evaluation. And. given both the scale of the
effort and the sophistication of the methodology and -
strumentation, it will be many years before adequate rep .-
cations in independent laboratories will be possible.
As promising as this most recent work by Honorton and
Jahn might seem to be, none of it has reached a stage
where it is ready for a full-scale critical evaluation. Alreac ..
the sharp-eyed critic can detect both inconsistencies w .:
previous findings in the same lines of research and depr-
tures from ideal practice. As the history of parapsycholog.
teaches us, we will have to wait for several more yer's
before we can adequately judge if somehow these lates:
efforts can avoid the fate that all their promising predeces-
sors have suffered.
Perhaps, however, history does not have to repeat itse .:
in all its depressing aspects. And I can see some encourts-
ing signs of breaks with previous patterns in the way
proponents carry out and defend their findings and the way
critics respond.
Since its inception as an institutionalized undertaking.
psychical research has suffered from the lack of releva -:.
informed, and constructive criticism. This particular ce-
ficiency seems to be changing. For one thing, the young ::
generation of parapsychologists have produced some inter-
nal critics who are both knowledgeable and effective. -
addition to Akers, there are others such as Susan Black-
more, Adrian Parker, Gerd Hovelmann, and J. E. Kennes.
who have recognized the current deficiencies ::
parapsychological research and have a strong committment
to raising the standards. Although it is still difficult to fi-d
external critics who are both informed and constructie.
one can see some Indications that this situation may also
improve.
Another positive sign is the attempt to replace subjective.
impressionistic evaluations of the parapsychological liter-
ature with more systematic, explicit assessments. Boch
Honorton [77] and ] [73] have used "meta-analysis" in cur
dispute over the adequacy of the Ganzfeld/psi database.
"Meta-analysis" is a term coined to describe the approach
to reviewing a body of research which makes the various
phases as explicit and quantitative as feasible [81], [82].
The approach to research integration referred to as "meta-
analysis" is nothing more than the attitude of data analysis
applied to quantitative summaries of individual experiments.
By recording the properties of studies and their findings in
quantitative terms, the meta-analysis of research invites one
who would integrate numerous and diverse findings to
apply the full power of statistical methods to the task. Thus
it is not a technique; rather it is a perspective that uses many
techniques of measurement and statistical analysis.
(From [81].)
Meta-analysis is by no means a panacea. Much subjectv-
ity remains on such matters as which studies to include and
exclude from the sample, how to score the "effect size" or
degree of success of a study, what variables to include, how
to assign studies values on the variables, and what should
be the sampling unit. In addition, many serious problems
have to be resolved about how to cope with the fact that
individual studies are not independent and the analyses are
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once à suitable sample of experiments has been selected,
Akers then screened all his 54 studies sequentially through
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trends, strengths, and weaknesses characterize the sample.
Up until recently, such a review of a body of literature has
been an unstructured and highly subjective affair. Under-
standably, two individuals surveying the same body of
literature could, and did, often come up with diametrically
opposed conclusions.
As cognitive psychologists have emphasized, the capacity
of humans to handle mentally a number of items is severely
limited. What constitutes an "item" varies greatly with the
structure of the material and the individual's previous
familiarity and expertise in a given field of knowledge. Even
within his field of speciality, a scientist would have great
difficulty in trying to comprehend patterns in over a dozen
or so reports without external aids and a systematic proce-
dure.
When the nonparapsychologist critic tries to make sense
of a large body of parapsychological literature, he is at a
great disadvantage. His critical capacities have not been
trained to pick out relevant from irrelevant details in seek-
ing interrelationships. Lacking concrete experience with
many of the experimental designs, he is at a decided dis-
advantage in knowing what things could go wrong and
which sorts of controls would be critical. And when the
number of separate reports is more than a dozen or so, he
cannot be expected to be able to grasp the total picture
without help from systematic and quantitative summariza-
tion procedures.
Yet, so far as I can tell, only two critical evaluations of
"systematic lines" of parapsychological research have ever
been carried out with any procedure approximating sys-
tematic, explicit, and quantitative guidelines. Both of these
were carried out fairly recently. One was by Charles Akers,
a former parapsychologist with both experience and pub-
lications in the field [74]. The other was by myself, acting as
an external critic who accepted the parapsychologists' chal-
lenge to fairly evaluate a systematic line of research which
they feel represents their strongest case for the repeatable
experiment [73], [75].
AKERS' METHODOLOGICAL CRITICISMS OF PARAPSYCHOLOGY
Akers' methodological evaluation of contemporary para-
psychological research represents a landmark in para-
psychological criticism. Akers, who holds a Ph.D. degree in
Social Psychology, has worked as a parapsychologist in
Rhine's laboratory and knows the contemporary scene from
the inside.
After a careful selection procedure, .Akers arrived at a
sample of 54 ESP experiments. These experiments had all
been cited in the Handbook of Parapsychology or other
parapsychological literature as exemplars of the evidential
database. The selection was restricted to studies in which
significant results had been claimed for a sample of rela-
tively unselected percipients. He excluded unpublished re-
ports, studies which were reported only as abstracts or
convention reports, and studies which were exploratory or
preliminary to a stronger replication. He also excluded
experiments which produced scores in the wrong direction
("psi missing") [74].
The final sample of 54 experiments is fairly complete. If it is
not inclusive, it is at least representative of findings in
altered state and personality research.
through all of them. He first looked at how many of the
studies used inadequate randomization of the targets. Al-
though he found almost half of the studies used inferior
methods to randomize targets he considered this to be a
"minor cortaminant." In his opinion, such randomization
failures as te observed would not be sufficient to account
for the above chance results which each of these studies
obtained.
Next he looked at the possibility of sensory leakage. For
example. in severa of the Ganzfeld experiments the agent
handled the slide or picture which served as the target.
Later the percipiert was given that very same target along
with some oils and asked to select which item had been
the target. In such a situation either inadvertent or de-
liberate cueing is clearly a possibility. A parapsychologist
should not be entitled to claim ESP as the explanation for a
successful selection by the percipient under such cir-
cumstances Akers assigned a flaw to any experiment which
had this or one of his other categories of possibilities for
sensory leallage. As many as 22 of the 54 experiments were
cited for having at least one flaw of the sensory leakage
kind (some nad more thar. one kind).
In a similar fashion, Akers checked for security problems.
recording erors, optional stopping, data selection, inade-
quate documentation, multiple testing, and some ad-
ditional flaws of a technical nature. On each criterion.
Akers assigred a flaw only if, in his opinion, the defect was
sufficient to account for the above chance hitting actually
reported [74.
Results from the 54-experiment survey have demonstrated
that there are many alternative explanations for ESP phe-
nomena; tte choice is not simply between psi and experi-
menter fraud .... The numbers of experiments flawed on
various grounds were as follows: randomization failures (13),
sensory lezkage (22), subject cheating (12), recording errors
(10), classification or scoring errors (9), statistical errors (12),
reporting failures (10) ... . All told, 85 percent of the experi-
ments were considered flawed (46/54).
In other words, only 8 of the 54 experiments-all of
which were selected to be best cases-were free of at least
one serious flaw on Akers' criteria. But Akers points out a
number of reasons to be concerned about the adequacy of
even these "flawless" studies [74].
In conclusion, there were eight experiments conducted with
reasonable care, but none of these could be considered as
methodologically strong. When all 54 experiments are con-
sidered, it can be stated that the research methods are too
weak to establish the existence of a paranormal phenome-
non.
Akers' conclusion is especially damaging to the case for
psi because he leaned over backwards to give the benefit of
doubt to the experimenters. In some cases where the docu-
mentation was incomplete, Akers assumed that the investi-
gator had taken the proper precautions against sensory
leakage. And Akers did not assign flaws to experiments if
their randomization procedures were less than optimal (he
considered this to be only a "minor contaminant"). Experi-
ments that were deficient on his other criteria such as
optional stopping and others were not assigned flaws if, on
Akers' judgment, the deficiency on that criterion was insuf-
ficient to have caused the total number of hits. In other
words, Akers was not judging whether the experiment had
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previously unstructured and subjective assessments. The
reviewer is forced to make many more of his or her stan-
dards and procedures explicit. The resulting debate can be
more focussed and the specific areas of disagreement can
be pinpointed more accurately. In addition, the use of
quantitative summaries often brings out patterns and rela-
tionships that would ordinarily escape the unaided re-
viewer's cognitive limits.
Along with an increase in more informed and construc-
tive criticism there are signs that the parapsychological
community is responsive and willing to change both its
procedures and claims in line with some of the criticisms.
Although we still disagree strongly on many of the issues,
Honorton has made many changes in his claims and proce-
dures in a sincere effort to take some of my criticisms into
account [73], [77]. At its 1984 annual meetings in Dallas, TX,
the Parapsychological Association established a committee
which will attempt to establish guidelines for the perfor-
mance of acceptable experiments in various lines of para-
psychological research. Along with some major para-
psychologists such as Honorton, the committee includes
both internal critics such as Akers and external ones such as
myself.
My survey of psychical research from the time of Hare
and Crookes to the present has suggested that, although
the specific evidence put forth to support the existence of
psi changes over time, many of the key issues and con-
troversies have remained unchanged. The parapsychologists
still employ similar strategems to seemingly enable them to
stick to their claims in the face of various incosistencies.
And the critics, sharing many assumptions with the propo-
nents, still behave in rather emotional and irrational ways.
Indeed, the level of the debate during the preceding 130
years has been an embarrassment for anyone who would
like to believe that scholars and scientists adhere to stan-
dards of rationality and fair play.
I suspect it is because the quality of the criticism has
been so poor and its content so obviously irrelevant that
parapsychologists have managed to live so long with the
illusion that the quality of their evidence was so much
better than it really was. Both Akers and I were surprised to
find how defective, in terms of the most elementary stan-
dards, the best of the contemporary parapsychological re-
search really was. I know that some parapsychologists have
been surprised to realize how far the current status of psi
research departs from the professed standards of their field.
And I would not be surprised that most of the rest of the
parapsychological community, in the absence of systematic
and critical surveys, had assumed that their database was of
a much higher quality than it, in fact, is.
All this suggests, as I have already indicated, that the
parapsychological evidence, despite a history of more than
130 years of inquiry, is not ready to be placed before the
scientific community for judgment. The parapsychologists'
first order of business should be to get their own house in
order. They no longer can safely assume that the typical
parapsychologist has the competence to correctly use sta-
tistical tools, design appropriate investigations, carry out
these investigations correctly, or to write them up properly.
Indeed, the evidence suggests the opposite. Both the
Parapsychological Association and the parapsychological
establish explicit guidelines and minimal
standards. Then they have to make sure that members of
their profession become fully aware of these standards and
recognize the necessity for living up to them.
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IV ANOMALOUS-MENTAL-PHENOMENA JOURNAL
PUBLICATIONS
The publications in the specialized journals for anomalous mental phenomena date back to the late
1800's and are too numerous to include here. The papers in this section, however, were selected from a
large number of excellent papers in the reviewed literature as representative of some of the directions
for current research.
The number that appears in the upper right-hand corner of the first page for each publication is keyed
to the following descriptions:
16. Ryzl, M., "A Model of Parapsychological Communication," Journal of Parapsychology, Vol. 30, pp.
18-30, (1966). If anomalous cognition can increase an individual's chances of correctly guessing
the toss of a coin, then by using a redundant coding technique, a communications system can be
constructed that is 100% accurate. Ryzl describes one such successful application in this paper.
17. Honorton, C., "Precognition and Real-Time ESP Performance in a Computer Task with an
Exceptional Subject," Journal of Parapsychology, Vol. 51, pp. 291-319, (December, 1987).
Honorton describes a series of experiments with a single subject spanning over 20 years. In this
rare circumstance, Honorton finds robust, statistical evidence for precognition that remains stable
over that time period.
18. May, E. C., Utts, J. M., Humphrey, B. S., Luke, W. L. W., Frivold, T. J., and Trask, V. V., "Advances
in Remote-Viewing Analysis," Journal of Parapsychology, Vol. 54, pp. 194-228, (September, 1990).
This paper describes an application of fuzzy set theory to the analysis of subjective data. It includes
examples of remote viewing and a comparison with "ground" truth.
19. May, E. C., Luke, W. L. W., Trask, V. V., and Frivold, T. J., "Observation of Neuromagnetic Fields
in Response to Remote Stimuli," Proceedings of Presented Papers for the 33rd Annual Convention of
the Parapsychological Association, National 4-H Center, Chevy Chase, MD, pp. 168-135, (August,
1990). This paper is a progress report on the use of magnetoencephalography to investigate the
brain's response to anomalous-cognition stimuli. Following techniques commonly used in the
research of visual evoked responses of the brain, the authors report a statistically significant effect.
The paper includes discussion about possible artifacts.
20. Braud, W., Shafer, D., and Andrews, S., "Electrodermal Correlates of Remote Attention:
Autonomic Reactions to an Unseen Gaze," Proceedings of Presented Papers for the 33rd Annual
Convention of the Parapsychological Association, National 4-H Center, Chevy Chase, MD, pp.
14-28, (August, 1990). Continuing a popular research line at the Mind Science Foundation in San
Antonio, Braud et. al. describe a careful experiments that appears to confirm statistically that one
can "tell," without looking, when someone is staring.
21. Lantz, N. D., May, E. C., and Piantanida, T., "Remote Viewing: From what TIme Frame Does the
Information Originate?" Proceedings of Presented Papers for the 33rd Annual Convention of the
Parapsychological Association, National 4-H Center, Chevy Chase, MD, pp. 138-150, (August,
1990). In this paper, Lantz et. al. describe a technically complex experiment to determine the
temporal source of anomalous-cognition information. While there was statistically robust
evidence for an effect, no temporal dependence was found.
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19
A MODEL OF PARAPSYCHOLOGICAL
COMMUNICATION'
By MILAN RYZL
R
ECENTLY the application of extrasensory perception (ESP) as a
meansof communication has been discussed more and more. How-
I
ever, the numerous popular articles have not been counterbalanced
by angequal number of scientific publications, and it is impossible to
decidewhether the reason is the sensational exaggeration of rela-
tivelyOscarce material, or whether, for strategic reasons, some of
the more recent scientific findings have been suppressed.
Because of the potential importance of the problem it will be
interesting to see how the question is being solved in the scientific
literature which is accessible. The characteristics of ESP are such
that the faculty is predestined to serve as a device for gaining in-
formation which is normally inaccessible (6, 17, 18)-whether
simplythat of objective events in the outer world in general or the
interception of coded messages in particular. However, the absolute
reliab@ity of ESP has not yet been achieved experimentally; the
experimenter cannot as yet rely absolutely on the correctness of the
responses secured in experiments.
To appraise the degree of reliability of ESP for obtaining in-
formation in practice, it is not its occasional spontaneous manifesta-
tions That must be examined, but results of controlled experimenta-
tion. "The latter do not give such dramatically striking results, it is
true; But they are more suitable for the exact evaluation necessary
for the application of ESP in conveying information. For this,
it wo@d be necessary to be able to tell before the check-up of results,
and maybe even without it, whether the ESP response was correct.
Ugfortunately, experimental results in ESP tests have not been
nearly as reliable as sensory perception. The eye or the camera
very quickly picks up a great deal of information, and radio and TV
' This paper is an adaptation of an article by Dr. Ryzl which appeared in a
Czechoslovakian technical journal, Sdelovaci Technika (Communication Tech-
nique), Vol. 12 (1964), No. 8, pp. 299-302.
A Model of Parapsychological Communication
signals will transmit a considerable amount in a short time unit.
Errors and inaccuracies in these areas have been reduced to such
an extent that they can be disregarded in this comparison.
On the other hand, ESP in simple card-calling tests is so much
less reliable that it results in only a slight deviation from mean
chance expectation. More than that, subjects prove to be very un-
stable in their ability to demonstrate ESP, their performance being
subject to considerable fluctuation-even to the temporary disap-
pearance of ESP, or to its manifestation as psi-missing. If ESP
were a technical contrivance for getting information, it would have
to be regarded today as very inefficient.
And yet, even a slight deviation above chance does represent
the acquisition of information. In order to make practical applica-
tion of it, it is necessary only :
(1) To secure stable performance in a subject, or to be able to
recognize those times when he is actually using his ESP ability.
(2) To so concentrate the amount of information picked up in
ESP tests that the knowledge looked for can be deduced with a
degree of reliability fixed in advance.
A third condition should be that this be possible without undue
cost. In the present study, however, economic aspects will not be
taken into account, but only the possible practical application of
ESP.
HISTORICAL SURVEY
The first accessible published report of an experiment in which
the method employed made it possible to gain an item of informa-
tion that could be used practically is the report by Foster (4). In.
this experiment a question was asked which could be answered either
by yes or no. The subjects were given a mixed pack of black
(meaning yes) and red (meaning no) cards in opaque envelopes,
and were asked to sort them onto black or red "target areas," the
black area indicating true and the red area false. When the correct
answer to a given question (which the subject was to discover by
ESP) was yes, black cards should have been found on the black
area and red cards on the red area. If the correct answer to the
question was no, an association of unlike colors would be the
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20
The Journal of Parapsychology
proper response. Unfortunately, in this experiment (in which the
subjects were Indian children ), no ESP was shown.
In most laboratory tests so far, card-calling or card-matching
tests (with cards enclosed in opaque covers) have been used. In
order to employ this method to gain specific information, it is neces-
sarg first to work out a code arrangement for translating the de-
sirea information into a certain sequence of cards. The ESP result
(if ESP occurred) must then be decoded to obtain the desired
knowledge.
:
Such a procedure was the basis for a suggestion made by W. H.
Class (2) to forecast the temperature. Clark suggested that the
subject call the order of a pack of ESP cards which would be cut on
a fufure day according to the temperature reading in a given news-
papel on that day. By a method Clark suggested, high scoring on
targ@ series assigned to a certain temperature could be used as a
basis for prediction.
Since ESP, as so far observed in the laboratory, has been too
impefect, it would be necessary for practical usage somehow to
concentrate the information carried in every call. To do this, there
wou have to be a large number of independent calls on every
targe. These results could then be statistically evaluated, and the
unrequability of individual calls thus compensated for.
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W. Fisk and D. J. West (3) used this procedure in an ex-
perirgent in which different subjects called the same card and the
majority call was considered the call for that target. They failed
in their objective, however, for insufficient evidence of ESP was
secured.
Bis "repeated-guessing" technique was also used by R. H.
Thou ess (16). In addition to checking the "majority vote," as
Fiskand West had done, Thouless introduced what he called an
"ind@ of preference," by which he proposed to compensate for
the fact that subjects prefer certain symbols and have unequal
numbers of calls for the various targets. In another article, C.
Scott (12) solved some statistical problems raised by Thouless'
method.
The repeated-guessing technique was also used by me in ex-
periments with Miss J. K. (8). It proved to yield an increase
21
A Model of Parapsychological Communication
in the reliability of ESP calls. However, since the work with this
subject was interrupted (for family reasons), it was impossible to
develop the method further and to prove that the successful result
was repeatable.
Because of the instability of ESP performance, it is necessary
to find a way to determine in advance whether ESP is occurring
in a given experiment and also to what extent. The subject's in-
trospective statements have not proven to be reliable (7). The first
experimenter who was concerned with finding a way to estimate
the degree of reliability of ESP responses prior to the check-up
was C. E. Stuart (13). Later, R. J. Cadoret (1) adapted a motor
form of expressing ESP somewhat similar to that of dowsing.
He tried to measure the reliability of ESP responses by having the
subject make two parallel sets of calls, using one of them as an
"index series" to be checked in advance. It was assumed that the
level of scoring on the unchecked series would be similar to that
on the checked. The subject was unaware which series would be
used as the index. Slightly significant scores were obtained.
Another method for the same purpose was designed by R.
Taetzsch (14), who proposed the use of dual-aspect targets; for
instance, playing cards, both value and color (5). In such tests,
one aspect would be evaluated as an index series, the other as the
experimental series. Dual-aspect targets have also been used in a
recent experiment by Dr. Schmeidler (11), who also has aimed at
finding out the most reliable forms of ESP manifestation. She
emphasizes the comparison of various methods of evaluation, either
by appraising both aspects together or either aspect separately.
An original contribution is a psi communication system designed
(but never put into practice) by Taetzsch (15). It is a device to
convey information between two points in space or time with a
degree of reliability fixed in advance. As corroborated in a paper
including the relevant calculations, it is possible to use even an im-
perfect ESP faculty to deduce reliable information by the selection
of one of two possibilities (white-black, yes-no, etc.). The subject
is to make his call by pressing down on one of two buttons. The
repeated-guessing technique is used and the result is worked out
by a computer on the basis of a program put into it previously.
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This program ensures the required reliability of information ob-
tained. The machine thus determines the number of calls necessary
to arrive at a reliable result according to the degree of ESP shown.
It does not give an answer until this degree of reliability has been
attained. The proposed system also allows for psi-missing by the
randem insertion of index calls between the regular calls. The in-
dex Calls are to serve as an empirical check as to whether, in the
giver series, ESP is being expressed in a positive or a negative
manger.
6"can be seen, then, that parapsychologists have given consider-
able attention to the problem of finding a way to make ESP practi-
calle applicable. It seems that the difficulty has mainly been the
fact that no way has been found to make the ESP performance so
perfect and constant that lawful control can be obtained. This is
the Impression one would get from the studies generally accessible
in the scientific press. It has been only in the experiments with
the subject P.S., concerning whose ESP faculties the author re-
pored previously (9, 10), that a sufficiently stable ESP response
was) attained to warrant an attempt at the reliable conveyance of
information by ESP with a real hope of success.
EXPERIMENTAL SET-UP
FOR SUBJECT P.S.
The general objective of the experiment, carried out in 1962,
W
's the identification by ESP of five numbers of three digits each.
Each of these numbers was to be transmitted as an independent
coperimental unit. However, the object of the experiment was not
aQually to attain a practically applicable use of ESP to convey
information ( this could not yet be done, given the present state of
affairs) but to furnish experimental proof that such application of
PSP' is possible in principle that information can be conveyed
by ESP with the required degree of exactness and reliability. At
the time of planning this experimental series, P.S. was giving re-
liable results in distinguishing two colors (white-green) on cards
enclosed in opaque covers, and therefore this technique was adapted
to the task of identifying a number by ESP.
23
A Model of Purupsychological Communication
By means of an arbitrary system, the designated number was
coded into a certain sequence of the colors of cards. The covers,
with the cards inside, were submitted to the subject for identifica-
tion repeatedly until an adequate number of calls were accumulated.
The data, treated analytically, gave a reliable indication of the color
of the uppermost side of the card before actual checking. By
means of the code, the number could be identified.
More specifically, the experiment proper was carried out thus :
First of all, a code was worked out by which a certain sequence
of 10 (white or green) colors was allotted to each one of the three-
digit numbers ranging from 000 up to 999. Then an assistant drew
a number by lot. By means of the code, he then transformed it into
a sequence of 10 colors. He next took 10 opaque covers made of
stiff cardboard and marked on the reverse side with capital letters
A, B. . ... K; and into these he put the white-green cards (mea-
suring 105 x 150 mm.) in such a way that the sequence of colors
indicated by the target number were uppermost in the cover. The
covers, or "envelopes," were then sealed shut.
To these 10 covers the assistant then added another 10 sealed
covers marked on the back with small letters a, b .. .... k, which
contained cards placed just the opposite to those marked with
capital letters. The purpose of this second set was a double one.
First, it represented a parallel, independent test of the same fact as
the basic set and could thus be a check on its correctness. Second,
this set ensured an equal distribution of target cards. In point of
fact, the chosen code for some numbers resulted in an unequally
balanced sequence of colors so that if the subject should show a
preference for calling one color over the other, a distortion could
have resulted.
After taking from the assistant the 20 envelopes representingg
the selected number, the experimentes added to them another 10
envelopes of the same appearance, marked on the back 1, 2. . . . . 10,
These contained randomly selected white green cards prepared by
the experimenter, who kept a record of their order. They were te
be checked after the cards had all been called the required number
of times, and presumably would indicate the quality of ESP which
had operated in the series.
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All 30 of the envelopes were of the same external appearance;
they differed only in the markings on the back, and these were
hidden from the subject's sight throughout the experiment. It was
decided beforchand that if the cards with the numbers should show
insufficient evidence of ESP, the entire series would be cancelled.
It proved unnecessary to do this, for the ESP result was sufficiently
stalge throughout the experiment to give the desired reliability.
After preparing the targets, the experimenter thoroughly shuffled
all the envelopes and gave them to the subject to identify the color
uppermost in them. The subject did so, the conditions excluding
all known possibility of sensory perception. The experimenter kept
a record of the subject's call on each individual card as it was pre-
send to him. Then the experimenter again shuffled the envelopes
thoughly and again handed them to the subject to be identified.
Thingprocedure was repeated 50 times so that a total of 50 calls was
mad on each envelope. Thorough shuffling between series ensured
that there was a different order each time and that the index targets
were randomly mixed with the experimental ones.
These 50 individual calls on each of the 30 covers gave 1500
callsaltogether. The 500 index calls were checked first to get an
ideasof the amount of ESP to be expected on the others. When
this@proved to be sufficient, the evaluation of the experiment proper
was made.
he evaluation of the two sets of experimental calls of 500
each was based on a method which had been worked out earlier in
connection with previous experiments with the same subject. The
critegia were so chosen that if they were met they would give
strong promise that the content of the envelopes could be reliably
foregld. The procedure was as follows :
The total of 50 calls on envelopes with capital letters and 50 on
corresponding envelopes marked with small letters were evaluated
separately from two points of view. First, the ratio of white to
green calls on each envelope was computed. This was called "Total
Score" (See Fig. 1. The total number of white calls is always given
on the left and the total green calls on the right of the column.)
Then the consistency of the preference for one color or the other on
a certain envelope was checked. The 50 calls on each card were
Total
Jtatle al
Total
"Tatal
Outstanding
Score
W-G
ul
State- |Target
No.
Basic Ferina
lat Revision
2nd Revision
3ed Revizion
I
33-17
1-0
2
15-35
0-2
a
23-27
1-1
18 -- 34
0 -- 1
T
27 -23
27 .- 23
0-0
32 -- IH
0 -0
10
22-28
0-0
20-24
1-0
76
31 -- 19
1-0
20 21
31 -19
19-31
26-24
0-0
32 -18
1 .- 0
8a
27-23
1-0
33-17
20
1b
26-24
16-35
12-38
4b
10 31
0-1
la
20
30
14-36
19-31
37-13
0-2
0 -- 0
3 0
18 -- 32
34-16
0-1
3-1
19-31
31-19
0-1
1-0
18-32
0-1
14-36
0-2
G
35-15
2-0
40-10
3- 0
36
14
31
30
48-7
48- 5
5-0
27 .- 13
0-0
8 --- 42
*
4 -- 0
W
H
15-36
0-2
0
21-20
0-2
K
30-11
3-0
20-21
2-0
22-28
0-1
17-23
1-0
17-33
0 -- 1
7-43
0-3
0
32-18
2-0
31-19
1-0
27-23
0 0
24 -- 26
I -- 1
30-20
1-0
39-11
3-0
34-16
1-0
40-10
2 0
W
26-24
0-1
28. 23
0 0
45 - 6
6 0
28 -- 22
0 0
37-13
18-32
2-0
23-27
0 0
Fig. 1. An example of the data from which one of the three-digit numbers (in
this case 242) was identified. Under the heading "Basic Series" is the ratio of
colors (or "total score") guessed for each envelope, and beside it, the results of
the five 10-number groups (called "Ratio of Outstanding Scores" in the text).
In the "Conclusion" columns, a capital letter means that the criteria for indica-
tion were met; a small letter, that they were nearly met. The revision columns
from left to right show the gradual elimination of those cards which have met
the specified criteria, of certitude until, at the bottom of tic Final Statement
column, all ten large lettered envelopes are seen to match the correct target
arrangement which represents the selected three-digit number.
divided into five consecutive groups of 10.calls each. The ratio of
white and green calls was evaluated in each of these five groups
separately. But only those groups were counted in which the calls
of one color predominated considerably over those of the other, at
least to the extent of 8-2, 9-1, or 10-0. These were called "Out-
standing Scores." (See "Ratio of Outstanding Scores" in Fig. 1.
25
A Model of Parapsychological Communication
I'mmela
Cover
Score
Outstanding
Score
W-G
Hoorn
W-0
W-G
W-0
w-C
receber !!
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Book
2b
3b
33-17
2-1
33-17
20
Q
29-21
1-0
34-16
2-0
8-42
36-14
0-4
3-0
28-22
16 34
21
0-0
0-2
0-0
22-28
25 -- 25
0-0
0-1
CIA-RDP96 00789RG03100030001-4-
W-G
tomabed)
Outstanding
Score
Itatm nf
Uutstanding
meat
25-26
00
1-0
0-2
0-3
27-23
00

26
The Journal of Parapsychology
On the left is the number of outstanding scores in which white calls
predominated, and on the right, the number in which green calls
predominated.) The judgment as to the actual color of the card in
the envelope was drawn after the results on the envelopes marked
with capitals had been compared with their opposites marked with
small letters.
The definite conclusion as to the color of the card in an envelope
was not drawn until all of the following conditions had been ful-
fillei at the same time. These criteria were:
9. The ratio of colors guessed on a given (capital or small let-
tered) envelope was 35-15 or greater. (Ratios closer to the chance
expectation of 25-25 were considered undecided. )
2. The ratio of "outstanding scores" (8-2 and better in each
group of 10 calls) pointed clearly in the same direction. Hence
the preponderance was on the same side as the majority data, name-
ly, ct least 3-0 (or better still 4-1, 4-0, or 5-0). That is, out of
five groups of ten calls a ratio of 8-2 or 9-1 or 10-0 appeared at
least three times (3-0).
003. The results of Points 1 and 2 were borne out by the agree-
met of the opposite cards (small or capital lettered, depending on
Point 1) on which there had to be a majority score no lower than
30-20 and a simultaneous indication in the same direction based on
theratios of "outstanding scores" at a rate of at least 1-0, or better
(220, 3-1, etc.).
94. In case Point 3 was not fulfilled, as when the result on the
opposite card was not sufficiently convincing, it was decided to re-
Be a more decisive result in the main set of calls to offset this:
q
wa. On Point 1 there must be a score of at least 40-10 or better.
b. On Point 2 there must be a ratio of "outstanding scores" of
the order of either 4-0 or 5-0.
6-00789R003100030007-4
When the first basic series of 50 calls on each envelope had been
luated, those envelopes which met the above criteria were re-
moved from the pack. The remaining ones which did not meet the
criteria were mixed with a corresponding number of numbered
index envelopes. They were thoroughly shuffled and given the
subject again as in a new experiment.
At each similar repetition series, 50 calls were made on cach
27
A Model of Parapsychological Communication
envelope and the result evaluated as before. Those envelopes which
again did not meet the criteria were put through the same process
until they did reach the criteria.
When all 10 colors indicating the given number had thus been
reliably identified, the number was deduced by the original code.
Then the result was compared with the assistant's record of the
target number.
Altogether, five independent series were carried out in this
manner and five three-digit numbers were thus identified withoup
a single mistake. Figure 1 shows an example of the result frong
which one of these three-digit numbers was identified. It shows
also the way in which the information about the content of the indig
vidual envelopes was determined in the successive experimental
series until all could be correctly identified.
DISCUSSION
The basic objective of the experiment was to show the posse
bility of identifying targets by ESP with a precision which could be
specified before the check-up. The objective was attained.
A problem remains concerning the efficiency of the method
For the time being, the procedure is uneconomical and cumbersong
as compared with other means of communication. Altogether, five
three-digit numbers were transmitted; but to do this, it was neces
sary to make 19,350 single color-calls (of which 11,978 were hios
and 7,372 were misses). The average speed on the whole was abog
400 calls per hour so that the mere accumulation of the data took
some 50 hours (with two persons participating). To this we must
also add the time necessary for evaluation of results.
It must be admitted, however, that this great consumption
experimental time was due partly to the fact that the empiricag
chosen criteria were very strict so as to meet the requirement
extreme reliability in the identifications. But in some cases of @-
plication it would be sufficient to use a statistically expressed relk-
bility of identification, which would make the criteria less stringent
and reduce the number of necessary calls (given the same level of
ESP performance of the subject). Numerous ways of saving us
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from making superfluous calls and of attaining the required relia-
bility of identification more economically are afforded by applying
communication theory.
The application of some method of automatically recognizing
the point at which identification could be possible would also con-
sìderably reduce the time involved. It can be seen from Figure 1
that the calls on quite a number of envelopes exceeded what was
necessary to identify them (e.g., targets H, h in the Basic Series, or
targets F, f in the First Revision Series).
To find a way to determine the point when further calls would
'unnecessary, as Taetzsch has suggested for his case, would save
atleast several scores of calls.
CONCLUSION
This experiment is proof that ESP as a means of communica-
tig can be practically applied. The present technique may not be
sugtable, for it was carried out only as a short-distance experiment.
InLactual usage, long-distance communication would be called for,
especially in situations in which radio communication is impossible.
Fos long distances, of course, further research aimed at securing
a sufficient stability of ESP performance under long-distance con-
ditons will be necessary.
This experiment had several useful features: First was the re-
peated-guessing technique for concentrating information. By this
meSiod the necessary data could be accumulated by only one sub-
jecto rather than many.
Un addition to this, the use of the index trials served as an indi-
cat@ of ESP. Exclusive of them, the two parallel series, which
checked and complemented each other, added another advantage.
Because of them it was possible to get a good idea in the course of
the@experiment of the extent to which the majority votes on cor-
resending covers tended to favor opposite sides.
Even though the technique permitted this preliminary estima-
tion of trends, it did not open any avenues by which the subject
could have gotten sensory cues. The index cards and the test cards
were so randomized that no reasoning on his part could have been
of benefit.
29
A Model of Parapsychological Communication
Finally, not the simple majority vote but an outstanding ma-
jority was used; and in cases when such a majority was not secured,
the calling was repeated until it was. Consistency of calling in
addition to an adequate majority was a useful auxiliary criterion.
The criteria were set empirically, and these were reached in
the experiment. It well may be that economy of procedure can ge
improved with the addition of revisions in line with the theory Of
probability and of information theory.
REFERENCES
1. CADORET, R. J. The reliable application of ESP. J. Parapsycho
1955, 19, 203-27.
2. CLARK, W. H. A practical application of precognition. J. Para
psychol., 1958, 22, 216-17.
3. FISK, G. W., AND WEST, D. J. Towards accurate predictions frog
ESP data. J. Soc. psych. Res., 1957, 39, 157-62.
4. FOSTER, A. A. ESP tests with American Indian children. J. Parg
psychol., 1943, 7, 94-103.
5. FOSTER, ESTHER B. Multiple aspect targets in tests of ESP.
Parapsychol., 1952, 16, 11-22.
6. KAZHINSKY, B. B. Biologicheskaya radiosvyaz (Biological Radis
Communication). Kiev : Publishing House of the Ukrainian Acada
my of Science, 1962.
7. RHINE, J. B. On the nature and consequences of the unconscious
ness of psi. J. Parapsychol., 1958, 22, 175-86.
8. RYZL, M. Training the psi faculty by hypnosis. J. Soc. psyc
Res., 1962, 41, 234-52.
9. RYZL, M., AND PRATT, J. G. A further confirmation of stabilize
ESP performance in a selected subject. J. Parapsychol., 1963, 28
73-83.
10. RYZL, M., AND RYZLOVA, J. A case of high-scoring ESP pef
formance in the hypnotic state. J. Parapsychol., 1962, 26, 153-79
11. SCHMEIDLER, GERTRUDE R. The accuracy of parapsychological ing
formation. Indian J. Parapsychol., 1960, 2, 169-73.
12. SCOTT, C. An appendix to "The repeated guessing technique .;
Int. J. Parapsychol., 1960, 2 (No. 3), 37-46.
13. STUART, C. E. An analysis to determine a test predictive of extra-
chance scoring in card-calling tests. J. Parapsychol., 1941, 5, 99-
137.
14. TAETZSCH, R. Application of statistical quality control techniques
to statistical psi control problems. (Abstract.) J. Parapsychol.,
1958, 22, 304.
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15.
Design of a psi communication system. Int. J. Para-
psychol., 1962, 4, 35-70.
16. THOULESS, R. H. The repeated guessing technique. Int. J. Para.
psychol., 1960, 2 (No. 3), 21-36.
17. VASILIEV, L. L. Experimentalnye issledovanya myslennevo vnu-
shenya (Experimental Research into Mental Suggestion). Lenin-
grad : Publishing House of the Leningrad University, 1962.
18.
-. Vnushenye na rasstoyanii (Long Distance Suggestion).
Moscow : Gospolitizdat, 1962.
RyBalkova 4
Prona 2, Czechoslovakia
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Journal of Parapsychology, Vol. 51, December 1987
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PRECOGNITION AND REAL-TIME ESP
PERFORMANCE IN A COMPUTER TASK
WITH AN EXCEPTIONAL SUBJECT
BY CHARLES HONORTON
ABSTRACT: An individual participant, Malcolm Bessent, with a history of success
in laboratory precognitive psi tasks, completed 1,000 trials in a computer-based
experiment comparing precognition and real-time target modes. A diode-based
electronic random number generator (RNG) served as the target source. Target
mode was randomly selected at the outset of each 10-trial run and was unknown
to Bessent until the completion of each run. Bessent's task was to identify the ac-
tual target from a judging pool of four graphic "card" images presented on a com-
puter graphics display.
Based on Bessent's prior research history, two formal hypotheses were tested: (a)
Bessent would demonstrate statistically significant hitting in the precognitive target
mode, and (b) his precognitive performance would be significantly superior to his
performance on real-time targets. Series sample size, methods of analysis, and sig-
nificance criteria were specified in advance. Both hypotheses were confirmed. Bes-
sent's success rate in the precognitive target mode was 30.4% (n = 490, p = . 0039).
This is reliably above the 25% chance level on an estimate of the 95% confidence
level, which gives 27.2% as the approximate lower bound. Real-time performance
did not exceed chance expectation (25.9% hits; n = 510, p = . 34). The difference
between the precognitive and real-time modes was significant (p = . 045). Explor-
atory analyses suggest that performance was related to response mode and latency:
Significant hitting occurred when Bessent's responses were based on cognitive
impressions but not when they were based on feelings or guesses, and he was more
accurate on trials in which he took more time to make his response.
Extensive randomness tests document the adequacy of the RNG. The tests in-
clude global RNG certification runs testing uniform distribution of RNG byte val-
ues (n = 6 × 106 bytes) and sequential biases (n = 8 x 106 bits), as well as tests
of the actual target sequence. An empirical cross-check control, recently advocated
by the critic Ray Hyman, in which Bessent's responses for one run were deliber-
ately mismatched against targets intended for another run, also yielded results
close to chance expectation.
Various rival hypotheses including sensory cues, faulty randomization, data-han-
dling errors, data-selection bias, multiple analysis, and deception are assessed and
found to be inadequate. This is the fourth precognition experiment with Bessent,
each involving a different methodology and each yielding a statistically significant
outcome. The combined result is highly significant (z = 5.47, p = 2.26 x 10-8).
It is concluded that the results provide evidence for a communications anomaly
involving noninferential precognition.
I am extremely grateful to Malcolm Bessent for once again making his remarkable
talents available for this study, and to the late James S. McDonnell, Michael Witunski,
and the James S. McDonnell Foundation for their generous financial support of my
research over the past 12 years. I also wish to thank George Hansen, Norman Herz-
berg. and Donald McCarthy for valuable comments on an earlier draft of this paper.
.
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The Journal of Parapsychology
This report describes an automated, computer-based experiment
with an exceptional subject whose prior laboratory testing history
indicates superior performance in precognitive as opposed to con-
temporaneous ("real-time") psi tasks. The present experiment was
designed to further assess this participant's precognitive ability and
to systematically compare his performance in precognitive and real-
time target modes on a blind basis.
Research Participant
The participant in this study was Mr. Malcolm Bessent. Bessent,
who resides with his family near London, England, is a businessman
who first came to our attention in the late 1960s as a result of a
series of ostensibly precognitive dreams. Bessent came to the United
States in 1969 to participate in experimental studies of his apparent
psi abilities at Maimonides Medical Center.
During the 1969 visit, Bessent was the percipient in two precog-
nitive dream experiments involving the use of EEG-REM monitor-
ing techniques (Krippner, Ullman, & Honorton, 1971; Krippner,
Honorton, & Ullman, 1972). Both studies involved eight precogni-
tive dream sessions in which Bessent attempted to dream about sa-
lient aspects of target material that would be randomly selected
sometime after the nocturnal dream session by Maimonides staff
personnel who were blind to Bessent's dream content.
In the first study (Krippner et al., 1971), target experiences con-
sisting of multisensory stimuli were created on the basis of a ran-
domly selected word in Hall and Van de Castle's (1966) book, The
Content Analysis of Dreams, which contains specific content items and
frequencies for 500 male dream reports. The target episode was
generated and presented to Bessent upon his final awakening in the
morning. Correspondences between dream transcripts for each of
the eight nights and the eight target episodes were rated on a blind
basis by three independent judges who had no other contact with
the study. By chance alone, one would expect that the mean of the
judges' ratings would result in one correct target-transcript pairing.
The mean of the judges' ratings for the correct target-transcript
pairs were higher than those for the incorrect (decoy) ratings for
five of the eight nights, a statistically significant result.
The second precognitive dream study (Krippner et al., 1972)
also involved eight precognitive dream sessions. The procedure dif-
fered from the first study in the following respects: (a) the targets
Precognition and Real-Time Performance
293
were predefined audio-visual episodes involving thematically related
slides and sound effects (e.g., slides of birds accompanied by an au-
diotape of bird calls); (b) a complex randomization procedure was
used to select an entry point into a random number table to deter-
mine the target episode; (c) the target that served as a precognitive
influence on Bessent's dreams on odd-numbered nights served also
as a presleep influence on the subsequent even-numbered nights,
allowing comparison of precognitive and presleep sensory influences
on Bessent's dream content; and (d) the target was selected and pre-
sented to Bessent approximately 24 hours after commencement of
the precognitive session. The judging procedure was similar to that
used in the first study. The mean of the three judges' ratings for
the precognitive nights again yielded a significant result with five
direct hits. Interestingly, the results for the presleep sensory expo-
sures yielded chance results.
In a third precognition experiment involving a binary random
number generator (Honorton, 1971), Bessent attempted to predict
which of two colored lamps would light after he pressed the button
associated with his choice. The RNG automatically registered the
number of hits in each 16-trial run on a digital counter. In 15,360
trials, Bessent obtained a statistically significant success rate of
51.2%.
In addition to the precognition studies, Bessent was the percip-
ient in two studies involving contemporaneous ("real-time") ESP.
These included a long-distance real-time dream study (Krippner,
Honorton, & Ullman, 1973) and a study of "psychic" readings (Stan-
ford & Palmer, 1973). In the 1973 Krippner et al. study, Bessent,
sleeping in the Maimonides Dream Laboratory, attempted to dream
about randomly selected target slides that were projected to audi-
ences at concerts by the rock group "The Grateful Dead," held over
a six-night period in Port Chester, NY, approximately 45 miles from
the Maimonides Laboratory. The results were statistically significant,
with four of the six sessions yielding direct hits. In the Stanford and
Palmer study, Bessent attempted to provide "psychic" readings for
20 absentee target persons whose hair samples were used as token
objects. Blind ratings of the readings intended for each target per-
son were compared with the mean ratings of readings intended for
three other target persons. Although an interesting post hoc finding
relating to EEG alpha frequency was reported, Bessent's overall suc-
cess rate was nonsignificant.
Table I summarizes Bessent's ESP testing history. Column 1
gives the study reference. Column 2 indicates the apparent psi
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TABLE 1
SUMMARY OF PREVIOUS ESP EXPERIMENTS WITH MALCOLM BESSENT
Prop. hits
Reference
Mode
Description Trials
MCE Obs.
2
Krippner et
Precog.
REM
8
.125
.625
2.70
.0035
al., 1971
dream
Krippner et
Precog.
REM
8
.125
.625
2.70
.0035
al., 1972
dream
Honorton,
Precog.
Binary
15,360
.500
.512
2.89
.0020
1971
RNG
Krippner et
Real-time
REM
6
.167
.667
2.01
.0222
al., 1973
dream
Stanford &
Real-time "Psychic
20
1.03
.6321
Palmer, 1973
readings"
z (overall) = 4.15, p = 1.68 x 10-5, "fail-safe" n = 27 studies
z (precognition) = 4.79, p = 8 x 10-7 "fail-safe" n = 22 studies
z (real-time) = 0.69, p = . 244
Zuun (precognition vs. real-time) = 2.45, p = . 014, two-tailed
Note. Probability estimates for the REM dream studies are exact o's based on the
matching distribution. The results for the Stanford/Palmer study were based on a
Wilcoxon matched-pairs signed-ranks test comparing the rating assigned to the cor-
rect reading to the mean of three control readings. The resulting z score was not
reported in the abstract. The author thanks Dr. Rex G. Stanford for providing this
information.
mode (precognition or real-time ESP), and Column 3 gives a brief
description of the study. The number of trials and the expected and
observed proportion of hits are given in Columns 4-6. Columns 7
and 8 report the z score and one-tailed probability values associated
with the observed success rate. An overall estimate of Bessent's suc-
cess rate was obtained by computing Stouffer z's (Mosteller & Bush,
1954; Rosenthal, 1984) across all of the experiments, and separately
for precognition and real-time experiments. The "fail-safe n's" esti-
mate the number of unreported studies with z scores averaging zero
that would be required to reduce the reported z scores to nonsig-
nificance (Rosenthal, 1984).
Bessent's overall record of achievement is an impressive one:
Statistically significant outcomes were obtained in four of the five
experiments, and he was more successful in precognitive than in
real-time ESP tasks. All three precognition experiments were signif-
icant, and they yielded significantly higher overall z scores than did
the experiments with contemporaneously existing targets. It is note-
Precognition and Real-Time Performance
295
worthy that the three precognition experiments used very different
procedures and methods. The two precognitive dream studies in-
volved different target situations and randomization methods, and
the precognitive guessing experiment was radically different from
the dream studies. Across the three experiments, the latency be-
tween Bessent's response and the generation of the target ranged
from a few hundred milliseconds in the RNG study to over 24 hours
in the second dream study. That all three experiments yielded sim-
ilarly significant outcomes provides converging evidence (Lykken,
1968) that Bessent was demonstrating precognition.
Bessent went into business after returning to England. Although
he maintained occasional contact with me, he had no further in-
volvement in parapsychological research until the summer of 1987
when a business trip to the United States provided an opportunity
for a brief visit to the Psychophysical Research Laboratories (PRL).
When asked why he has not been an active participant in psi re-
search in the U.K., Bessent responded, "No one ever asked me."
Bessent was 43 years of age at the time of his visit to PRL in July
1987. Prior to the experiment, he completed a 55-item personal his-
tory survey, the Participant Information Form (Psychophysical Re-
search Laboratories, 1983), as well as Form F of the Myers-Briggs
Type Indicator (Briggs & Myers, 1957; Myers, 1962) and the Per-
sonality Assessment System (Saunders, 1986). The report on Bes-
sent's performance on the Personality Assessment System was not
available at the time of this report.
Participant Information Form (PIF). Bessent believes very strongly
in the reality of psi and reports personal psi experiences in all four
of the traditional categories (telepathy, clairvoyance, precognition,
and PK). He has had extensive experience with various mental dis-
ciplines including hypnosis, relaxation exercises, EEG and EMG bio-
feedback training, and meditation. Although he describes his cur-
rent practice of meditation as sporadic, at various times he has
practiced meditation intensively. Bessent reports recalling specific
dream content, including lucid dreams, almost every day. He enjoys
activities requiring an involvement in fantasy and reports that he
frequently loses awareness of his surroundings when he becomes in-
volved in an activity. Bessent rates himself as outgoing and moder-
ately competitive.
Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI). In Myers-Briggs typology,
Bessent is classified as an Extraverted, Intuitive, Thinking, Judging
type (ENTJ). The continuous scores for the four scales were: EI =
77, SN = 139, TF = 95, and JP = 99. Because the cutoff for each
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scale is 100 with standard deviations of approximately 20, the "TJ"
classification is equivocal and Bessent could as easily be classified as
reflecting the "Feeling/Perceptive" temperament as "Thinking/Judg-
ing." Strong extraversion and intuition scores are interpreted as in-
dicating a general orientation toward the external world and a pref-
erence toward attending to possibilities over actualities (Myers,
1980). Myers describes intuitives as being "comparatively uninter-
ested in sensory reports of things as they are. Instead, [they] listen
for the intuitions that come up from their unconscious with enticing
visions of possibilities" (Myers, 1980, p. 57).
In addition to the experiment reported in this paper, Bessent
participated in two ongoing group experiments and served as the
single subject in an RNG-PK experiment. These experiments will be
reported elsewhere. The present experiment was conducted be-
tween July 14 and 17, 1987.
METHOD
Hardware and Software System
Computer System
The experiment was run on an Apple ][ Plus computer equipped
with 64 kilobytes of random access memory and two disk drives.
The computer is connected to an Okidata Microline u82A printer
through a parallel interface and to a 19-inch Toshiba color TV
through an RF modulator. The game controller, which provides the
participant's sole mode of interaction with the computer, is an Ap-
ple game paddie.
Random Number Generator
A PsiLab ][ random number generator (RNG) served as the ran-
domness source for this experiment (Psychophysical Research Lab-
oratories, 1985a). The RNG is a "Bierman-RIPP"-type RNG that has
been component tested and modified to PRL specifications. The
RNG circuitry is contained on a component board, which plugs into
a peripheral expansion slot in the Apple II computer. The board
converts the analog noise voltage from two independent avalanche
noise diodes into two digitized data bitstreams. The high frequency
Precognition and Real-Time Performance
noise components from each diode are coupled into LM311 com-
parators, which perform the digitization of the random analog input
noise voltages. The outputs of the comparators are 'LS/TTL. com-
patible, and their risetimes are further improved by two successive
'LS/TTL buffers. The bitstreams are latched during periods free of
computer-generated EMI and fed into binary dividers to reduce
first-order effects (unbalance of l's or 0's). The two data streams are
then combined in an exclusive-or (half-adder) circuit to further re-
duce first-order effects. The combined random digital data stream
is clocked into an eight-bit shift register at a bit rate given by the
Apple clock divided by 32. Eight new data bits (a fresh data output
byte) are accumulated at a rate of approximately 4 kHz (4,000/sec).
Independent bits are available at approximately 32 kHz (32,000/sec).
Appropriate filtering, decoupling, and shielding are included on the
RNG board. Documentation of the adequacy of the RNG as a source
of random numbers is presented below in the Results section.
ESPerciser
General description. ESPerciser™ is an ESP testing system designed
as a hybrid between conventional forced-choice and free-response
ESP tasks. It combines the simplicity of evaluation associated with
forced-choice card-calling ESP tasks with the diversity of target ma-
terial, emphasis on the individual trial, and deployment of cognitive
strategies such as imagery usually found only in free-response psi
tasks. The program enables systematic comparison of target mode
(clairvoyance and precognition) and response mode (guessing, feel-
ing, impressions).
The participant's task on each trial is to identify a randomly se-
lected target from a "pack" containing the target and three decoys.
There are 24 packs each consisting of four "cards" bearinga wide
variety of graphic images including ESP card symbols and other
geometric forms, line drawings of people, animals, etc., and image-
evoking words. A target pack is selected randomly on each trial
without replacement; that is, a different target pack is used for each
trial within the run. The order of presentation of the four card-
images is randomly determined. At the beginning of each trial, the
participant sees the ESPerciser "Impression Period Screen" shown in
Figure 1.
The participant is free to take as much time as desired to form
impressions' of the target. When he is ready to view the target pack,
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ESPerciser
I
PRESS BUTTON WHEN READY.
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Figure 1. The computer screen during the "impression period."
the participant presses a button on a game controller. The amount
of time taken prior to presentation of the target pack (Impression
Period Latency) is measured by the computer for each trial. Figure
2 shows the Response Screen and a target pack.
The participant uses a dial on the game controller to point to
the card he believes is the target. A button-press then registers his
response. The amount of time taken prior to registration of a re-
sponse (Response Latency) is also measured for each trial. Prior to
receiving feedback to the correct target, the participant uses the
game controller to indicate whether his response was based on an
impression, a feeling, or a guess, defined for the participant as fol-
lows:
Impression: Your choice was based on a distinct cognitive impression such
as an image or verbal association.
Feeling: You had no cognitive impression, but felt drawn to your choice.
Guess: Your choice was based neither on an impression nor a feeling.
You cannot identify any specific reason for your choice.
Upon registering the type of response, the participant receives
feedback to the correct target. Hits are rewarded with the word
ESPerciser
#
D
USE PADDLE TO POINT,
PRESS BUTTON TO SELECT.
Figure 2. The computer screen during the response period, in which four
targets are presented.
"HIT" displayed prominently at the bottom, the screen flashes, and
appropriate sound effects are produced.
The above process is repeated for each trial in a run. At the end
of each run, the data are saved to disk and the participant is shown
a Results Screen indicating the target mode (clairvoyance or precog-
nition), the total number of hits, and a breakdown of trials and hits
involving each of the three response types. The participant is then
free to initiate another run by using the game controller to respond
"Yes" to the prompt "Play again (Y/N)?"
.
RNG usage. The RNG is used by ESPerciser to select the target
mode (clairvoyance or precognition) at the beginning of each run.
The target pack, pack presentation order, and the actual target are
selected through RNG calls on a trial-by-trial basis. Each RNG call
is based on a single BASIC PEEK to the RNG slot address. Within
the run, ESPerciser keeps track of which packs have already been
used to insure that a different pack is used on every trial in the run.
To reduce positional response biases, the targets are presented in
one of four randomly selected orders. In clairvoyance runs, the ac- .
tual target is selected during the Impression Period, prior to pre-
sentation of the four target possibilities. In precognition runs, the
target is selected after the participant makes his response and has
indicated his basis for the response (guess, feeling, impression). .
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Security. There is only one legitimate way to exit ESPerciser and
that is by using the game controller to respond "No" to the prompt
"Play again (Y/N)?" (When a participant has completed the maxi-
mum number of games specified in the Design module of the Series
Manager, described below, the prompt "You have completed the se-
ries" is displayed and program control is returned to the Series
Manager.) Safeguards built into the program control for the possi-
bility that a participant might accidentally or otherwise illegally ter-
minate execution of the ESPerciser program. A flag set at the begin-
ning of each run is written to a special disk file and, upon normal
completion of the run, is reset. Any error condition, including an
illegal attempt to terminate the program by pressing control-C or
control-RESET, or removing the data disk before the data are
stored, will cause the computer to "lock up" and trigger a security
alarm that can only be deactivated by physically turning off the
power to the computer. Any of the above maneuvers leave the error
flag set and will cause the Series Manager, when next booted and
accessed via the experimenter's private password, to display the
message, "THERE IS A DISCREPANCY IN THE SYSTEM! [PAR-
TICIPANT'S NAME] STARTED A GAME OF ESPERCISER AND
DID NOT FINISH IT!" This procedure effectively eliminates the
S following possibilities: (a) that an incomplete run could be termi-
U nated without detection, (b) that program execution could be inter-
rupted to list or alter the program code, (c) that someone could pre-
vent data from being properly recorded by either hitting reset at the
end of the game or by removing the data disk before data are re-
corded. If someone replaces the data disk with another to avoid sav-
ging "bad" data, that run's data will be missing from the official data
disk and their absence will be readily detected. Computer "lock up"
Balso occurs from within the Series Manager if an unauthorized pass-
word is entered and fails three times.
File format. The data for each run are saved in a standard ASCII
format sequential disk file. The file name is concatenated from the
series name, participant ID, run number, and series type. (See fol-
lowing section on Series Manager for description of series type.)
Each file includes a header section consisting of the series name,
series type, experimenter, participant identification number, partici-
pant name, date, run number, target mode, trials per run, total hits,
number of trials involving guessing response mode, guessing hits,
feeling trials and hits, and impression trials and hits. The individual
trial-by-trial data follow the header and include for each trial the
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trial number, participant's response, target, judging sequence, re-
sponse mode, impression latency, and response latency. After the
file is written to disk, it is locked to prevent accidental deletion.
ESPerciser was designed by me and coded in Applesoft® BASIC
by Hansen and me. Hansen was also responsible for the develop-
ment and coding of several 6502 assembler routines, including a bi-
nary data compression routine that allows the 96 graphics target
card images to be stored compactly on disk.
Series Manager
General description. Series Manager is a password-protected, menu-
driven control program that provides the only means through which
an experimenter may validly specify parameters for the series de-
sign, register new participants in the series, set up a session, and run
ESPerciser. The Series Manager menu is accessed through entry of
a private (and nonechoing) password. As described above, the com-
puter "locks up" and must be rebooted if an unauthorized password
is entered and fails three times. The ESPerciser Series Manager is an
adaptation of Series Manager programs used in the PRL PsiLab ][
and autoganzfeld experiments (Honorton & Schechter, 1987; Psy-
chophysical Research Laboratories, 1985a).
Design. The Design module prompts the experimenter to specify
(a) the type of series (Pilot, Screening, or Formal); (b) the maximum
number of runs per participant; (c) the maximum number of par-
ticipants in the series; (d) the number of trials per run; and (e) the
series name. No provision is made for changing the Series Design
once accepted by the experimenter, and any subsequent alteration
in the design specifications would constitute a deliberate violation of
protocol. The design parameters are saved in a disk file and are
passed to the ESPerciser program at the beginning of each -session.
Participant registration. This module prompts the experimenter to
input the participant's last name, first initial, and participant iden -.
tification number. This module verifies that the maximum number
of participants specified in Design is not exceeded. (A "SERIES
FULL" message appears if an attempt is made to register partici-
pants exceeding the Design specification, and control is then re-
turned to the Series Manager menu.)
Directory. The Directory maintains a log of the number of runs
completed by each participant and the date of their last session.
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303
Session setup. The Setup module is entered when the experiment-
er is ready to initiate a session. The participant's name is input by
the experimenter, and the module verifies that the participant has
been properly registered and has not already completed the maxi-
mum number of runs specified by the Series Design.
Run ESPerciser. This module runs an assembly language RNG
verification routine to certify the presence of a PsiLab ][ RNG in the
Apple computer. (Failure of the RNG verification test results in the
"message "NO RNG FOUND" and causes the computer to "lock
oup.") ESPerciser is loaded upon verification of the presence of a
PsiLab I[ RNG.
The Series Manager was designed by me and was coded in Ap-
oplesoft BASIC and 6502 assembly language by Rick E. Berger and
@me. ESPerciser-specific adaptations were made by Hansen.
Ressent Design Specifications
The design of this experiment called for Bessent to complete 50
ESPerciser runs in each series. The run size was set to 10 trials, and
the number of participants per series was set to one. Thus, each
series consisted of 500 trials with an expected chance probability on
each trial = . 25. The series were defined as Formal. Two series
(MB) and MB2) were completed prior to Bessent's return to Lon-
don. The above design specifications were input by me for each se-
ries while Bessent was in another room.
Procedure
Prior to beginning MB1, Bessent was shown ESPerciser and was
allowed to do several preliminary runs in an informal PRL DEMO
series to familiarize himself with the experimental task, use of the
game controller to register his responses and response type, the type
of feedback provided for hits and misses, and the end-of-run feed-
back. As with the DEMO series for other PRL computer experi-
ments, the DEMO series was defined as a Screening type series and
was used exclusively for the purpose of showing the experiment to
prospective new participants and PRL visitors.
Bessent was informed that the target for each trial would be se-
lected by an electronic device in the computer and that his task
would sometimes involve "real-time" ESP (i.e., clairvoyance) and at
..
other times would involve precognition. He was given a printed
sheet defining the criteria to be used in labeling his responses as
Guesses, Feelings, or Impressions. Bessent was informed that mean
chance expectation (MCE) was 2.5 hits per run and that his goal was
to obtain as many hits as possible on each run. He was encouraged
to take as much time as desired on each trial. He was further en-
couraged to take coffee or cigarette breaks whenever he wished and
not to do too many runs at any one time.
Bessent received no technical information concerning the ESPer-
ciser or Series Manager programs or the hardware RNG, nor did he
at any time ask questions about or otherwise express interest in such
matters. He was not informed of the security measures described
above, nor was he informed concerning the manner in which data
were saved, the type or number of data files, the file formats, and
so on. At the time of this experiment, the only written description
of ESPerciser was a one-page, nontechnical account in the 1985 PRL
Annual Report (Psychophysical Research Laboratories, 1985b), which
Bessent had not seen.
Session Procedures
The experiment was conducted in an experimental room, adja-
cent to the main PRL conference area. There are no windows in the
experimental room and only one exit, which opens to the confer-
ence area. Bessent sat in a comfortable reclining chair in front of
the Apple computer and color TV monitor. At the beginning of
cach session, the overhead fluorescent lights were turned off and
the room was illuminated by a desk lamp adjusted to avoid screen
glare.
Bessent got coffee or engaged in conversation with PRL staff in
another room while I set up the session. When ESPerciser was
loaded and ready to run, I escorted Bessent to the experimental
room. Bessent and I typically engaged in conversation for a few
minutes at the beginning of the session. When Bessent indicated his
readiness to begin, I sat silently to his left for the first run or two,
occasionally offering words of encouragement. I then left the room
while Bessent proceeded with the session. Either I or PRL staff per-
sonnel Marta Quant and Linda Moore occasionally came into the
room to see how Bessent was doing and to offer encouragement.
Such visits were frequent and unannounced. When Bessent was
ready to quit for the day, he would come and get me, if I was not
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already present. I retrieved the ESPerciser system disk and the data
disk and returned them to my office. Bessent and I then discussed
the session and how Bessent thought he had done that day.
Chronology
MB1. The first series was completed in the three-day period be-
tween July 14 and 16, 1987. The results were analyzed on the after-
noon of July 16.
MB2. The second series was completed in a single two-hour ses-
sion on Friday, July 17, 1987. Prior to beginning MB2, and while
Bessent was out of the experimental room, I changed my password
and made two modifications in the ESPerciser program. The first
modification, made at Bessent's request, caused the program to
print a hardcopy of the number of hits at the end of each run. Bes-
sent requested this change so that he could keep track of his per-
formance from run to run. Following initial analysis of MB1, Bes-
sent knew that his precognition performance had been just one hit
shy of statistical significance and that his overall success rate was just
three hits shy of significance. This was the only request for proce-
dural modification made by Bessent during the course of the ex-
periment. The second program modification changed the file-nam-
ing protocol so that shorter filenames (MB01, MB02, ... MB50)
would be used. This replaced the rather awkward file-naming con-
vention involving concatenation of series name, participant identifi-
cation number, run number, and series type and was done to ex-
pedite transfer of the files from the Apple to an MS-DOS computer
at the end of the series. Bessent was not informed of the changes
in password and file-naming convention.
Data Handting
Data handling was automated to eliminate any possibility of hu-
man recording errors and to facilitate analysis. At the end of each
series, the individual data files were transferred from the Apple H
to a Leading Edge Model D MS-DOS computer using the Kermit
protocol and a serial link between the two computers. A Microsoft
Quick Basic program translated the summary header data of the in -
dividual run files into records that could be read into a dBASE III
Plus database file (BESSENT). A similar program translated the in-
dividual trial-by-trial data into a second dBASE file (MBTRIAL), al-
lowing analysis of the target sequence, response mode, success rate
Precognition and Real-Time Performance
by target pack, impression period, and response period delays.
Overall hit rate and hit rate by target and response type were ana-
lyzed separately for the summary header and trial-by-trial data, and
no discrepancies were found to exist between the two files. ($
should also be noted that there were no discrepancies in hit coutg
between the disk files and printouts in MB2.)
Statistical Analysis
Sample Size
As stated above, the experimental design called for Bessent to
complete 50 runs of 10 trials (i.c., a total of 500 trials) in cach seriesN
Two series were completed prior to Bessent's return to London on
July 19. There was absolutely no data selection, and the number of
series was dependent solely on Bessent's flight schedule, which had
been arranged prior to beginning the experiment.
Predictions and Planned Analyses
On the basis of Bessent's prior experimental history, it was pre-
dicted that he would demonstrate significant above-chance hitting in
the precognitive target mode and that his precognition performance
would be significantly superior to his performance in the clairvoy-
ance condition.
The planned analyses were limited to (a) exact one-tailed bino-
mial probabilities (with p = . 25 and q = . 75) to test overall hitting
by target mode, and (b) an independent groups i test to evaluate the
difference between the mean run scores of the two target modes.
The alpha level was set to p = . 05, one-tailed.
Exploratory Analyses
In addition to the formal planned analyses, a number of explor-
atory analyses were anticipated. I was particularly interested in the
relationship between Bessent's success rate and his mode of re-
sponse. Because of Bessent's earlier success in the free-response
dream studies, I expected that he might be particularly successful
in responses based on imagery (i.e., cognitive impressions), but since
he had also succeeded in a binary guessing task, there was really no
adequate basis for formulating a prediction. I also expected that
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Bessent's performance would fluctuate with respect to the varying
content and discriminability of the target packs. Once again, there
was no specific basis for predictions prior to the experiment.
RESULTS
Randomness Tests
Global RNG Certification Runs
The RNG used in this experiment is PRL PsiLab ][ RNG #36.
BNG #36 has undergone extensive global certification runs using
ghe PRL PsiLab ][ Random Analysis Protocol (Psychophysical Re-
Search Laboratories, 1985a, pp. 3-43) both prior to and following
ge present experiment. The certification runs include both fre-
quency and serial analysis of RNG output generated automatically
Rith no one present. The programs used for this purpose were writ-
gen in Applesoft BASIC and 6502 assembly language by Donald J.
.McCarthy, Dept. of Mathematics and Computer Science, St. John's
University, and were run on the Apple ][ Plus computer with the
PsiLab RNG board mounted in peripheral expansion slot #4.
Frequency analysis. FREQUENCY ANALYZER measures the de-
gree to which the byte values produced by the RNG match the ex-
pected distribution wherein each value (0-255) is equiprobable. In
addition to the full breakdown using all 256 values individually,
FREQUENCY ANALYZER examines the effect of grouping adja-
ent values into 2, 4, and 16 cells. (The present experiment, for ex-
Ample, produced target values between 1 and 4 by dividing the byte
ento four equiprobable parts.) Chi-square and Kolmogorov-Smirnov
K-S) tests are calculated for each of the four cell breakdowns. The
chi-square test examines the extent to which the RNG has produced
an equal distribution of values for each cell breakdown. The K-S
test (Knuth, 1981) is a "goodness of fit" test and measures the de-
gree to which the observed distribution of chi-square samples for
each cell breakdown deviates from the theoretical distribution. A to-
tal of 300 samples each consisting of 20,000 FREQUENCY ANA-
LYZER trials (i.e., a grand total of 6 x 106 bytes) have been col-
lected on RNG #36. Neither the overall chi-square nor the sample-
based K-S tests revealed any consistent departures from the ex-
pected distributions.
Precognition and Real-Time Performance
307
Serial analysis. SERIALYZER performs a generalized Serial test
(Good, 1953, 1957) on the RNG bitstream. This test assesses the ex-
tent to which successive bits produced by the RNG are independent,
that is, devoid of predictable patterns. This type of analysis is par-
ticularly important in experiments such as the present one, in which
participants receive trial-by-trial feedback. It is possible that a target
generator could appear quite random by the simpler tests for equi-
probable frequency of targets yet produce sequential dependencies
(e.g., a tendency for 3's to follow 1's) that might lead a participant
unconsciously or otherwise to a spuriously significant success rate.
SERIALYZER examines the RNG bitstream for serial patterns to a
depth of 8 bits. The output of the analysis is a chi-square test for
each of the three serial depths examined (2, 4, and 8 bits). As with
the frequency analysis, the results are summarized by a Kolmogo-
rov-Smirnov test that assesses their "goodness of fit" to the expected
distribution of chi-square values. A Runs Test is also produced for
cach sample and summarized by a K-S analysis. A total of 400 sam-
ples each consisting of 20,000 SERIALYZER trials (i.e., a grand total
of 8 × 106 bits) have been collected on RNG #36. Neither the over-
all chi-square tests nor the sample-based K-S tests revealed any con-
sistent departures from the expected distributions.
Tests of the Experimental Target Sequence
In addition to the global RNG certification runs, the actual target
sequence for the Bessent experiment was subjected to a number of
randomness tests to insure proper functioning of the RNG during
the experiment.
Distribution of targets. A chi-square test of the distribution of tar-
gets indicates that the target values (1-1) were uniformly distrib-o
uted. The x2 with 3 df is 3.68, p = . 298.
Tests for sequential dependency. As indicated in the discussion of the
global RNG certification runs, the assessment of potential sequential
dependencies is particularly important in ESP experiments where
participants receive trial-by-trial feedback. The 1,000-trial target se-
quence was subjected to an autocorrelation analysis using Version
3.0 of the SYSTAT statistics package (Wilkinson, 1986). The auto-
correlation analysis was performed with lags from I to 9 trials. The
analysis (Table 2) revealed no evidence of sequential dependencies.
Empirical cross-check control. Hyman has recently advocated em-
pirical cross-checks as a method for assessing target randomness in
ESP experiments (Hyman & Honorton, 1986). Such analyses were
:
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TABLE 2
AUTOCORRELATION OF 1,000-TRIAL TARGET SEQUENCE
Lag
Correlation
Standard error
1
.026
.032
2
-. 032
.032
3
-. 021
.032
4
044
.032
5
-. 041
.032
6
-. 026
.032
7
.051
.032
8
.014
032
9
-. 054
.032
frequently performed in conjunction with the early card-guessing
yexperiments (Pratt et al., 1940/1966). The cross-check control was
performed by matching Bessent's responses on run n against targets
Sfor run n + 1. This yielded a nonsignificant hit rate of .260 (z =
0.70, p = . 243, one-tailed). The associated effect size (Cohen's h;
"Cohen, 1977, pp. 179-213) is 0.02. Figure 3 shows the outcome of
the cross-check control in the form of a cumulative deviation graph
with trend lines indicating the .05, .01, and .0013 alpha levels (i.e.,
scores of 1.65, 2.33, and 3.00, respectively).
Summary
The randomness tests and empirical cross-check control indicate
hat the target generator used in this experiment provides an ade-
نـ
.0013
T
.01
Cumulative deviation
.05
MCE
Run
Figure 3. Empirical cross-check control.
Precognition and Real-Time Performance
.0013
.01
Cumulative deviation
.05
Run
Figure 4. Precognition mode results.
quate source of random numbers and was functioning properly
during the experiment.
Experimental Results
Planned Analyses
Precognitive target mode. As predicted, Bessent's precognition per-
formance was statistically significant. Forty-nine runs (490 trials) in-
volved the precognitive target mode where the actual target for each
trial was randomly selected after registration of Bessent's response.
The observed proportion of hits was .304 and is associated with a
one-tailed exact binomial p = . 0039. This outcome is reliably above
the expected chance rate of .25 on a one-tailed 95% confidence in-
terval, which gives .272 as an estimate of the lower limit of the true
population mean. The associated effect size is 0.12. Figure 4 shows
the outcome of the precognition runs in the form of a cumulative
deviation graph.
Clairvoyance target mode. Fifty-one runs (510 trials) involved the
clairvoyance target mode in which the target for each trial was ran-
domly selected prior to Bessent's response. They yielded a nonsig-
nificant success rate of .259 (exact binomial p = . 34. z = . 42). The
effect size is .02. Figure 5 shows the outcome of the clairvoyance runs
in the form of a cumulative deviation graph.
Table 3 summarizes the results of this experiment by series and
target mode.
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.0013
T
.01
Cumulative deviation
.05
MCE
Run
Figure 5. Clairvoyance mode results.
Precognition vs. clairvoyance. Bessent's success rate in the precog-
nition runs was, as predicted, significantly higher than in the clair-
voyance runs: { (98) = 1.71,p = . 045, one-tailed. The mean run score
for the precognition runs was 3.041 (SD = 1.353), and the mean run
score for the clairvoyance runs was 2.588 (SD = 1.299). The effect
size index (r) associated with this difference is .17.
*
Exploratory Analyses
Overall results. As shown in the last row of Table 3, the overall
results of the 1,000-trial experiment, combining the precognition and
TABLE 3
OVERALL RESULTS
Target mode
Trials
Hits
Prop.
hits
Run SD
Z
p
Effect
size (h)
Precognition
Series 1
270
79
.293
1.49
1.53
.063
.10
Series 2
220
70
.318
1.18
2.21
.013
.15
Total
490
149
.30.1
1.35
2.66
.0039
.12
Clairvoyance
Series 1
230
60
.261
1.34
.32
.38
.02
Series 2
280
72
.257
1.29
.23
.41
.02
Total
510
132
.259
1.30
.42
.34
.02
Grand total
1,000
281
.281
1.34
2.20
.014
.07
Note. All p values are exact one-tailed binomial probabilities with p = . 25 and q = . 75.
z scores are based on the exact p's.
Precognition and Real-Time Performance
311
.0013
1
.01
Cumulative deviation
.05
N
MCE
Run
Figure 6. Overall results.
clairvoyance runs, were statistically significant (exact binomial p =
.014, one-tailed). The overall proportion of hits, .281, is reliably above
the expected chance rate of .25 on a one-tailed 95% confidence in-
terval, which gives .258 as an estimate of the lower limit-of the truee
population mean. Figure 6 shows the overall results in the form of a
cumulative deviation graph. The distribution of scores is presented
in Table 4.
Response mode. As shown in Table 5, Bessent's successful precog
nitive performance occurred largely on trials in which his responses
were labeled as cognitive impressions rather than feelings or guesses;
The impression response effect size is approximately double that as-
sociated with feeling and guessing responses. Bessent characterized
his impression responses as involving fleeting images of shapes. H
made responses based on impressions in all of the runs, and they
account for approximately two thirds of his responses. Responses
based on feelings occurred in 88 of the 100 runs and account for 27%
of the total trials. Only 28 runs included responses labeled as guesses
and they account for less than 7% of the trials. Bessent chose "1" a
TABLE 4
RUN SCORE DISTRIBUTION
Run score
Target
mode
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Total
Precognition
1
4
14
13
8
8
1
149
Clairvoyance
2
10
12
13
11
3
0
132
Total
3
14
.26
26
19
11
281
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TABLE. 5
RESULTS BY TARGET AND RESPONSE MODE
Target
response modes
Trials
Hits
Prop.
hits
SD
Z
Effect
size (h)
For precognition
Guess
32
9
.281
.457
.24
.405
.07
Feeling
136
39
.287
.454
.89
.187
.08
Impression
322
101
.314
.465
2.52
.0059
.14
or clairvoyance
Guess
34
7
.206
.410
-. 78
.782
-. 11
Feeling
134
37
.276
.449
.61
.271
.06
Impression
342
88
.257
.438
.26
.397
.02
Note. All p values are exact one-tailed binomial probablities with p = . 25 and
= . 75. The z scores are based on the exact.p's.
is response in all 66 of the trials labeled as guesses, indicating that
used the guess category as a null response or "pass" option.
Impression latency. Bessent formed impressions and made his re-
sponses quickly. Impression latency, the period from the beginning
of the trial to presentation of the target pack, displayed strong vari-
bility, and four trials that were extreme outliers were eliminated for
de following analyses. Impression latency averaged 5.46 sec/trial (SD
3.67 sec). Trials involving impression responses were associated
Ath significantly shorter impression periods than trials involving feel-
igg or guess responses (Mann-Whitney U Test, z = 2.08, p = . 038,
two-tailed). Bessent showed a general tendency toward shorter
impression periods as the experiment progressed. This is reflected
both at the level of the run (Kruskal-Wallis one-way ANOVA by
Ranks, x2[9] = 256.4. > < . 001) and within the run at the trial level
(Bruskal-Wallis one-way ANOVA by Ranks, x"[9] = 16.8, p = . 052).
Impression latency did not vary significantly in relation to hitting or
target mode.
96-60789R003100030001-4
Response latency. Bessent's response latency, the period between his
ingrial exposure to the target pack and registration of a response, also
showed considerable variability, and the six trials representing the
most extreme outliers were removed for the following analyses. Re-
sponse latency averaged 5.50 sec/trial (SD) = . 81). In the precognitive
target mode, Bessent took significantly longer to make his response
on trials resulting in hits than on trials resulting in misses (Mann-
Whitney U Test, z = 2.58, p = . 01, two-tailed). In the clairvoyance
target mode, Bessent took slightly more time to make responses re-
313
target mode, Bessent took slightly more time to make responses re-
sulting in misses than hits (Mann-Whitney U Test, z = - 0.27, p =
.787, two-tailed). The correlation between response latency and
impression latency was close to zero (r = - . 017, [[992] = -. 54, p =
.589, two-tailed).
Targets. A chi-square test of the distribution of target packs indi-
cates that the packs (1-24) were uniformly distributed: x2(23) =
15.10, p = . 891. As described carlier, the 24 target packs contain a
wide variety of images ranging from geometric forms such as the
standard ESP card symbols to complex drawings of the type commonly
used in free-response experiments. Although a one-way ANOVA on
the proportion of hits per pack was nonsignificant (F [1,23] = 1.39,
p = . 251), Bessent's scoring rate ranged from a low of .07 to a high
of .43, and the variability of scoring across the 24 packs was sugges-
tively high (Bartlett's Test for Homogeneity of Group Variances,
yielding x"[23] = 32.44, p = . 091). To assess Bessent's scoring con-
sistency in the two target modes, a Pearson correlation was calculated
between the effect size (h) for each pack in the two target modes. The
resulting r = . 342 ({[22] = 1.71, p = . 051, one-tailed) indicates that
Bessent exhibited similar scoring patterns on the packs in the two
target modes.
Stability of performance. Bessent's precognition mode performance
was stable across the two experimental series, and there is no evidence
supporting either learning or decline effects. Although inspection of
the first two rows of Table 3 indicates that Bessent improved slightly
from Series 1 to Series 2, with a 2.5 percent gain in mean hit rate
and a suggestive, though nonsignificant, decrease in run score vari-
ability (F [26,21] = 1.59, p = . 141), the correlation between precog-
nitive run score and run number is close to zero: r = . 0496, ( (47) =
.340, p - . 735, two-tailed.
DISCUSSION
Two formal predictions were made prior to beginning the data
collection phase of this experiment: (a) Bessent would demonstrate
statistically significant above chance scoring in the precognition target
mode; and (b) his precognitive mode performance would be signifi-
cantly superior to his performance in the clairvoyance target mode.
Both predictions were confirmed.
In this section, I consider various rival hypotheses that might ac-
count for the experimental outcome, the degree to which the present
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experiment viewed in conjunction with the earlier Bessent studies
constitutes evidence for noninferential precognition, and directions
for future research suggested by the exploratory analyses.
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Rival Hypotheses
Sensory Cues
Targets in the real-time clairvoyance mode are stored in computer
memory, resulting in a small change in the electromagnetic field.
Although it is highly unlikely that the human organism is sensitive to
such minute fluctuations, this possibility cannot at present be com-
pletely excluded. Sensory leakage is completely ruled out as an ex-
planation for Bessent's precognitive mode performance, however, be-
cause he could hardly gain sensory cues from targets that were selected
only after he registered his response.
Faulty Randomization
Five different tests have been presented to document both the
general adequacy of the RNG and its proper functioning during the
experiment. Extensive global certification runs performed both prior
to and following the present experiment indicate that the RNG fre-
quency distribution is well within chance limits and provides no evi-
dence of sequential dependencies. 'Tests of the target sequence used
in the experiment demonstrate that the actual targets were uniformly
distributed and revealed no evidence of sequential dependencies. The
empirical cross-check control, advocated by Hyman, failed to reveal
any tendency for Bessent's responses to coincide with targets for which
they were not intended. We conclude that the observed experimental
outcome cannot be attributed to faulty randomization.
Data Handling Errors
Automated registration of targets, responses, the checking of hits,
and data handling eliminates motivated human checking and record-
ing errors as a basis for explaining the observed experimental out-
come. Independent reanalysis of the trial-by-trial target and response
data confirmed the summary run hit counts, thus rendering untenable
the possibility of machine counting errors.
:
Precognition and Real-Time Performance
315
Data Selection Bias and Multiple Analysis
The sample size parameters (number of participants, runs, and
run size) for each series, as well as the Formal status of the series,
were specified in advance and stored in a computer disk file as re-
quired by the Series Manager protocol. Program error-checking rou-
tines insured that these parameters were not exceeded. The number
of series, although not specified in advance, was dictated solely on the
basis of Bessent's travel plans, which were made prior to the exper-
iment. The second and final series was completed on a Friday morn-
ing, and that afternoon was taken up with a visit from the author
Arthur M. Young and members of the Princeton University Engi-
neering Anomalies group.
Advance specification of formal predictions and methods of analy-
sis obviates problems involving multiple statistical analyses or multiple
indices.
Deception
It is unfortunately true that psi researchers have been occasionally
deceived by dishonest participants. Experiments involving a small
number of selected individuals are particularly vulnerable to the pos-
sibility of subject deception, and when such experiments are successful
and are relatively free of more prosaic threats to validity, suspicion of
subject deception is probably inevitable. For these reasons, I believe
this report would be incomplete without some explicit assessment of
the likelihood of subject deception.
Even though computer-based experiments 'such as ESPerciser
eliminate many known sources of human error, they provide no guar-o
antee against the possibility of deliberate deception. The many media
accounts of computer crime and of hackers breaking into supposedly
secure government computers attest to this fact. Deception in exper-
iments of this type does, however, require specialized expertise
knowledge of the particular hardware and software systems used, and
access to those systems.
In assessing the likelihood of deception, one must consider a num
ber of issues. These include the participant's prior history, motivation,
and technical expertise; opportunities for advance or in situ prepa-
ration; the' availability of accomplices; likely methods for deception
within a specific research context; and whether there is any positive
evidence consistent with actual or attempted deception.
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In the 18 years since Bessent first became a research participant
in parapsychology, no doubt has ever been raised concerning his
integrity. No investigator who has worked with Bessent has ever ques-
tioned his reliability or trustworthiness. In working with me, Bessent
has always been cooperative and has never attempted to dictate or
otherwise exert an influence on experimental protocol; indeed, I can-
not recall Bessent ever expressing interest in details of experimental
protocol. Bessent is humanistically rather than technically inclined
and is rather easily bored by details. According to his own testimony,
he has no training or expertise in engineering, computer program-
ming, statistics, or conjuring. I am not aware of anything that would
contradict this, and neither I nor other members of the PRL staff
observed anything during Bessent's visit that would suggest otherwise.
Bessent visited PRL at his own expense and was not paid for his
participation in this experiment. Bessent's best guess, prior to arriving
at PRL, was that he would participate in psi ganzfeld experiments and
psi experiments "involving computers." He did not receive any de-
Railed information from me prior to his visit regarding current PRL
Experiments, and, as stated earlier, no detailed description of the
"ESPerciser program existed prior to this report. Besides PRL, Bessent
Chas not visited any other psi research centers that have PRL's PsiLab
>[ testing package and might have provided a basis for advance in-
Formation concerning the RNG or Series Manager program.
During his visit, Bessent was my house guest and had access to
RL only through me. I did not have an Apple computer, PsiLab ][,
Or ESPerciser software or documentation at home during Bessent's
Stay. The program and data disks were kept in my PRL office between
sessions. Bessent occupied an empty office at PRL and spent his time
@ading or in conversation with staff when not engaged in the ex-
Periment. No experiment-related materials were in the office. At no
Eme was Bessent observed in areas of the laboratory where he had
Bo reason to be.
Opportunities for consorting with potential accomplices were ex-
Bemely limited. With one exception, Bessent took his meals with me
every day during his visit and depended on me for transportation.
The exception was July 15, when Bessent went to New York to visit
Eileen and Lisette Coly at the Parapsychology Foundation. Bessent
had no guests or other visitors during his stay in the Princeton area.
Examination of the PRL and my own residence telephone bills during
Bessent's visit reveals no out-going calls that are not fully accounted
for, and no one at PRL recalls any incoming phone calls for Bessent
that were not accounted for. (I have a telephone by my bed and would
317
Precognition and Real-Time Performance
have been aroused had any calls come at home while I was sleeping.)
Bessent did not send or receive any mail that could have contained
computer diskettes, program listings, or documentation.
To account for the observed experimental results on the basis of
deception, it would be necessary to assume that either Bessent or an
accomplice had extensive knowledge of Applesoft BASIC (and for
certain scenarios, 6502 assembly language), access to the ESPerciser
system disk, and time to learn the code and try different possibilities.
That the experiment was conducted over a four-day period constrains
the time potentially available for extended tinkering.
The results of the randomness tests conducted on the actual target
sequence eliminates any method based on physical intervention with
the RNG, for example, forcing the nonrandom occurrence of certain
target values or pairings that could later be matched by appropriate
responses. If additional data disks with files containing "good" runs
had somehow been prepared in advance and later substituted for or
copied onto the official data disk, the culprit would have encountered
the unexpected change in filenaming format introduced by me with-
out Bessent's knowledge immediately prior to the two-hour session
that comprised series MB2. Upon discovery of this change, the culprit
would have had to individually unlock, rename, and relock the copied
or substituted files. He or she would then have to resort the disk
directory so that the files would appear in chronological order, and
this would require a special disk utility. To successfully modify data
files, a text editor would have been necessary and changes would have
had to be made in three separate places for each modified hit count:
(a) summary hit count, (b) summary hits by response type count, and
(c) the trial-by-trial target or response data. Any substitutions, copying
or editing of files, or other attempted manipulations during the ex-
perimental session would have had to occur with the knowledge that
I or other members of the PRL staff could walk in at any time. Of
the 12 experimental runs yielding 5 or more hits, 4 were observed by
me and 3 by Quant (including the single run of 6 hits). I was present
at the beginning of both series, and Quant was present when Bessent
finished series MB2. The ESPerciser/Series Manager security system,
about which Bessent had not been informed, was not activated at any
time, and no procedural irregularities were observed during the
course of the experiment.
Precognition
The experimental results provide further support for the exis-
tence of a communications anomaly involving noninferential precog-
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Precognition and Real-Time Performance
319
nition. This is the fourth experiment involving precognition tasks with
Bessent. Each experiment has had a different methodology: Four
distinct methods of randomization have been used, including two
different, complex procedures for gaining entry points in random
number tables and two automated procedures involving different
hardware random number generators; the tasks have varied from
dream-generated free-response imagery matched against multi-sen-
sory target ensembles by independent blind judges to forced-choice
matching of waking state guesses or impressions against machine-
selected random numbers represented by lights or images; the latency
between response and target selection has varied from a few hundred
TImilliseconds to over 24 hours. All four experiments have yielded
statistically significant outcomes, and the combined result is associated
with a z score of 5.47 (p) = 2.26 x 10-").
Precognition vs. Real-Time Psi Performance
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Bessent was not informed of my prediction that he would display
Ssuperior performance in the precognition mode, but he was certainly
aware of his own prior research history. Nevertheless, Bessent strongly
believes his abilities include contemporaneous psi functioning as well
as precognition, and his superior performance in precognitive psi
tasks is not likely to be based on any conscious bias toward precog-
nition. Such bias could not, in any case, account for his differential
performance in the present experiment because the target mode was
selected randomly on a run-by-run basis and he was blind to the target
mode until the end of each run. It is unclear whether the systematic
difference observed between precognitive and clairvoyance tasks re-
flects a fundamental difference in psi modalities or is linked to in-
dividual differences in cognitive style as suggested in Isabelle Myers's
(1980, p. 57) discussion of the tendency for MBTI-defined intuitives
to be more strongly oriented toward possibilities rather than actual-
ities. Certainly the present study, along with Bessent's prior experi-
mental history, calls into question the generalizability of Tart's (1983)
conclusion that precognition does not work as well as real-time ESP
and suggests the need for further systematic comparisons of different
psi modalities.
Performance and Cognitive Strategies
Bessent was most successful in trials involving cognitive impres-
sions. The effect size achieved on precognitive impression trials was
nearly double that obtained on trials based on feelings. (As indicated
earlier, Bessent chose to use the "guess" category essentially as a no-
response "pass option.") This result is consistent with earlier work
involving confidence calls and suggests that participants can to some
extent discriminate between internal cues associated with hits and
misses (e.g., McCollum & Honorton, 1973). Future research will be
necessary to determine whether impressions are generally more ac-
curate than other types of responses or, as seems more likely, that
optimal response modalities are related to individual differences irg
cognitive style.
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SAUNDERS, D. R. (1986). Predicting psi performance with the Personality
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Psychophysical Research Laboratories
301 College Rd., East
Princeton, NJ 08540
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1

Journal of Parapsychology, Vol. 54, September 1990
ADVANCES IN REMOTE-VIEWING
ANALYSIS
BY EDWIN C. MAY, JESSICA M. UTTS, BEVERLY S. HUMPHREY,
WANDA L. W. LUKE, THANE J. FRIVOLD, AND VIRGINIA V. TRASK
ABSTRACT: Fuzzy set technology is applied to the ongoing research question of
how to automate the analysis of remote-viewing data. Fuzzy sets were invented to
describe, in a formal way, the subjectivity inherent in human reasoning. Applied
to remote-viewing analysis, the technique involves a quantitative encoding of target
and response material and provides a formal comparison. In this progress report,
the accuracy of a response is defined as the percent of the intended target material
that is described correctly. The reliability is defined as the percent of the response
that was correct. The assessment of the remote-viewing quality is defined as the
product of accuracy and reliability, called the figure of merit. The procedure is
applied to a test set of six remote-viewing trials. A comparison of the figures of
merit with the subjective assessments of 37 independent analysts shows good
agreement. The fuzzy set technology is also used to provide a quantitative defini-
tion of target orthogonality.
Human analysts are commonly used to evaluate free-response
data. Although there are many variations, the basic idea is that an
analyst, who is blind to the actual result, is presented with a re-
sponse and a number of target possibilities, one of which is the in-
tended target. The analyst's task is to decide what is the best re-
sponse/target match, and frequently includes rank-ordering the
targets from best to worst correspondence with the response. It is
beyond the scope of this report to provide a critical review of the
extensive literature on this topic.
One aspect, however, of this type of evaluation is that analysts
are required to make global judgments about the overall match be-
tween a complex target (e.g., a photograph of a natural scene) and
an equally complex response (e.g., written words and drawings). In
a recent book, Dawes (1988) has discussed various decision algo-
rithms in general and the difficulty with global techniques, such as
those used in rank-order evaluation, in particular.1 According to
Dawes, the research results suggest that global decisions of this type
are not as good as those based on smaller subelements that are later
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' We are indebted to Professor D. Bem, Cornell University, for directing us to
this valuable source of information.
18
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1
...... . .. . ....
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The Journal of Parapsychology
combined. (See Dawes, 1988, chap. 10, for references to the re-
search.) Humans appear to be capable of deciding what the appro-
priate variables should be in complex decision processes, but they
have proved to be unreliable at combining these variables to arrive
at a single decision. Linear algorithms are consistently better at this
latter task. Therefore, it seems prudent to develop evaluation tech-
niques that are less sensitive to global decision processes and rely on
combinations of more restrictive decisions.
Honorton (1975) has pointed out an additional difficulty inher-
ent in a global rank-order approach. Asking an analyst to rank-
order a small set of target possibilities converts the free-response
experiment into a forced-choice one, at least on the part of the an-
alyst. It is obvious that in doing so, much quantitative information
is lost. For example, a near perfect correspondence between re-
sponse and target will receive only as much "credit" as one that just
barely allowed an analyst to discriminate among the possibilities.
If multiple analysts are used, addition problems arise concerning
interanalyst reliability. If an individual analyst judges a number of
responses in a series, within-analyst consistency becomes an individ-
ual problem.
To address these difficulties, various computer-automated pro-
cedures have been suggested in an attempt to reduce the inter-
analyst reliability while increasing within-analyst consistency. For ex-
amples, see Honorton (1975), Humphrey, May, Trask, and
Thomson (1986), Humphrey, May, and Utts (1988), Jahn, Dunne,
and Jahn (1980), May (1983), May, Humphrey, and Mathews
(1985), and Targ, Puthoff, and May (1977).
In this paper we present the current status of an ongoing re-
search topic. We are not yet ready to propose that the techniques
described here be used for free-response analysis; however, we hope
to inspire the community to develop a proper set of subvariables so
that the problems inherent in global decision processes can be
avoided.
Finally, we present a successful application of the mathematical
techniques for quantifying target orthogonality for a complex target
pool.
Background
Substantial progress has been made in methods for evaluating
remote-viewing experiments since the publication of the initial re-
mote-viewing (RV) effort at SRI International (Puthoff & Targ,
Advances in Remote-Viewing Analysis
1976). This paper outlines some of the progress and presents the
details for one particular method."
Two basic questions are inherent in the analysis of any remote-
viewing data, namely, how is the target defined, and how is the re-
sponse defined.
In a typical outbound RV experiment, definitions of target and
response are particularly difficult to achieve. The protocol for such
an experiment dictates that an experimenter travel to some ran-
domly chosen location at a prearranged time; a viewer's task is to
describe that location. One method of trying to assess the quality of
the RV descriptions in a series of trials is to require that an analyst
visit each of the sites and attempt to match responses to them. While
standing at a site, the analyst has to determine not only the bounds
of the site, but also the site details that are to be included in the
analysis. For example, if the target location was the Golden Gate
Bridge, the analyst would have to determine whether the buildings
of downtown San Francisco, which are clearly and prominently vis-
ible from the bridge, were to be considered part of the target. The
RV response to the Golden Gate Bridge target could be equally
troublesome, because responses of this sort are typically 15 pages of
dream-like free associations. A reasonable description of the bridge
might be contained in the response; it might be obfuscated, how-
ever, by a large amount of unrelated material. How is an analyst to
approach this problem of response definition?
The first attempt at SRI at quantitatively defining an RV re-
sponse involved reducing the raw transcript to a series of declarative
statements called concepts (Targ et al., 1977). Initially, it was de-
cided that a coherent concept should not be reduced to its compo-
nent parts. For example, a small red VW car would be considered a
single concept rather than four separate concepts, small, red, VW,
and car. Once a transcript had been "conceptualized," the list of
concepts constituted, by definition, the RV response. The analyst
rated the concept lists against the sites. Although the response was
well defined by this method, no attempt was made to define the tar-
get site.
In 1982, a procedure was developed to define both the target
and response material (May, 1983). It became evident that before a
site can be qualified, the overall remote-viewing goal must be clearly
defined. If the goal is simply to demonstrate the existence of the
195
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" Although the term remote viewing is used throughout this paper, the analysis
techniques can easily be applied to any free-response data.
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Advances in Remote-Viewing Analysis
197
TEST CITY
Membership Value
1.0
0.8
0.5 0.3 0.2
0.1
0.01
0.0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
15
...
30
Population in 100 Thousands
Figure 1. The fuzzy set "kind-of-small" cities.
In traditional set theory (i.e., crisp sets), an element, either is or
is not a member of a set. For example, the crisp set of cities with
population equal to or greater than 1,000,000 includes New York
City, but not San Francisco. This set would also not include a city
with a population of 999,999. The problem is obvious. There is no
real difference between cities with populations of 1,000,000 and
999,999, yet one is in the set and the other is not. Humans do not
reason this way; therefore, something other than crisp sets is re-
quired to capture the subjectivity inherent in RV analysis.
Fuzzy set theory introduces the concept of degree of membership.
Herein lies the essence of its applicability to the modeling of impre-
cise concepts. For example, if we consider the size of a city, we
might define certain fuzzy sets, such as very small cities or kind-of-small
cities. Using kind-of-small cities as a fuzzy set example, we might sub-
jectively assert that a city with a population of 100,000 is definitely
such a city, but a city with a population of 400,000 is only a little bit
like a kind-of-small city. As depicted in Figure 1, fuzzy set theory al-
lows us to assign a membership value between 0. and 1 that repre-
sents our best subjective estimate as to how much each of the pos-
sible city populations embodies the concept kind-of-small. In this
example, a population of 700,000 assigned a membership value of
0.3.
Clearly, a different set of membership values would be assigned
to the populations for the fuzzy sets very small cities, medium cities,
large cities, and so forth; a population of 100,000 might receive a
value of 0.2 for very small cities, but a value for 1.0 for kind-of-
small cities, depending on context, consensus, and the particular
" We wish to thank S. James P. Spottiswoode and D. Graff, CE, for directing us
to the fuzzy set literature and for many helpful discussions.
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RV phenomenon, then anything that is perceived at the site is im-
portant. But if the goal is to gain specific information about the RV
process, then possibly specific items at the site are important
whereas others remain insignificant.
In 1984, work began on a computerized evaluation procedure
(May et al., 1985), which underwent significant expansion and re-
finement during 1986 (Humphrey et al., 1986). The mathematical
Formalism underlying this procedure is known as the "figure of
gerit" (FM) analysis. This method is predicated on descriptor list
Technology, which represented a significant improvement over ear-
ffer "conceptual analysis" techniques, both in terms of "objectifying"
che analysis of RV data and in increasing the speed and efficiency
with which evaluation can be accomplished. Humphrey's technique,
Which was based on the pioneering work of Honorton (1975) and
&ts expansion by Jahn, Dunne, and Jahn (1980), was to encode tar-
get and response material in accordance with the presence or ab-
Igence of specific elements.
It became increasingly evident, however, that this particular ap-
Plication of descriptor lists was inadequate in providing discrimina-
tors that were "fine" enough to describe a complex target accurately,
cand unable to exploit fully the more subtle or abstract information
"Content of the RV response. To decrease the granularity of the RV
evaluation system, therefore, a new technology would have to allow
the analyst a gradation of judgment about target and response fea-
Cures rather than the hard-edged (and rather imprecise) all-or-noth-
căng binary determinations. Requiring an analyst to restrict subjective
"judgment to single elements rather than to complete responses is
consistent with the research reported by Dawes (1988).
.
.
A preliminary survey of various disciplines and their evaluation
methods (spanning such diverse fields as artificial intelligence, lin-
guistics, and environmental psychology) revealed a branch of math-
Vematics, known as "fuzzy set theory."
Fuzzy Set Concepts
Fuzzy set theory was chosen as the focal point of the RV analyt-
ical techniques because it provides a mathematical framework for
modeling situations that are inherently imprecise. Because it is such
an important component in the analysis, a brief tutorial will be pre-
sented to highlight its major concepts.
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application. These membership values can be obtained through con-
sensus opinion, a mathematical formula, or by several other means.
Crisp sets are special cases of fuzzy sets, in which all membership
values are either zero or one. By using membership values, we are
able to provide manipulatable numerical values for imprecise natu-
ral language expressions; in addition, we are no longer forced into
making inaccurate binary decisions such as, "Is the city of San Fran-
cisco large-yes or no?"
In this example, the crisp set of all cities defines the universal set
of elements (USE). The crisp set of cities with populations of one :
million or more is a subset of USE. The fuzzy sets very small, kind-
of-small, medium, and large cities are fuzzy subsets of USE.
Universal Set of Elements
Since targets and the responses will be defined as fuzzy sets, we
must specify a USE. The universal set of elements can be quite gen-
eral and include all aspects of a given target pool, or it can be tai-
lored to a specific experiment to test a given concept (e.g., include
only geometric shapes). Since the method of fuzzy set analysis crit-
ically depends on the choice of USE, we provide one example that
was derived from a target pool used in earlier experiments. What
follows is only an example of how one might construct a USE. The
one we use is not generally applicable to other target pools or other
experiments.
We constructed our USE by including a list of features present
in photographs from the National Geographic magazine with ele-
ments obtained from the RV responses in earlier experiments. This
USE is presented in Appendix A as the actual coding forms. For
the target features, we focused on direct visual elements. (In the
general case, other perceptual dimensions can be considered.) In
the case of the RV response-derived elements, an effort was made
to preserve the vocabulary used by the viewers. Some of the ele-
ments, therefore, are either response-dependent or target-depen-
dent or both, whereas others, particularly at the more abstract lev-
els, appear to be more universal across possible USEs.
This universal set of elements is structured in levels, ranging
from the relatively abstract, information poor (such as vertical lines),
to the relatively complex, information rich (such as churches). The
current system is structured into seven primary and three secondary
levels of elements; the main intent of this structure is to serve as a
heuristic device for guiding the analyst into making judicious con-
Advances in Remote-Viewing Analysis
crete element assignments based on rather abstract commentary.
The use of levels is advantageous in that each element level can be
weighted separately and used or not, as the case may be. This ena-
: bles various combinations of levels to be deployed to identify the
optimal mix of concrete versus abstract elements. Of course, any
such weighting scheme must be determined in advance of any ex-
periment.
The determination as to which elements belonged on which level
was made after consideration of two primary factors: (1) the appar-
ent ability of the viewers to be able to resolve certain features, cou-
pled with (2) the amount of pure information thought to be con-
tained in any given element. Some of these "factor one"
determinations were based on the combined anecdotal experience
of analysts and monitors in the course of either analyzing or con-
ducting numerous RV experiments; some were determined empir-
ically from post hoc analyses of viewers' abilities to perceive various
elements in previous experiments.
The "factor two" determinations were made primarily by arrang-
ing the elements such that an element at any given level represents
the sum of its constituent elements at lower levels. For example, a
port element (Level 7) could be considered to include canal (Level 6)
and partially bounded expanse of water (Level 5). The world is not a
very crisp place and not all its elements are amenable to hierarchical
structuring. Certain violations of the "factor two" rule appear,
therefore, throughout the USE example. It should be noted, how-
ever, that some of the more glaring violations were largely driven
by the "factor one" determinations (i.e., the viewers' abilities to dis-
cern certain elements) enumerated above.
To emphasize once again, it is very important to realize that this
universal set of elements was constructed to match our particular
special targets, viewers, and requirements. They are shown here to
illustrate the procedure. Any particular application of fuzzy set tech-
nology to the analysis of free-response material requires an a priori
construction of an individualized, and improved, USE specific to the
target pool and the goals of the experiment.
Target Fuzzy Sets
Each target is defined as a fuzzy set constructed by assigning a
membership value to each of the elements in the USE (see Appen-
dix A). In general, membership values can vary continuously on the
interval [0,1]. In this application they represent human judgment
.3
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I ne journal of Parapsychology
and, thus, were constrained to vary in steps of 0.1. In addition, they
must represent the perceptual dimension used to construct the USE.
In our example, membership values were assigned to each element
for each of the targets, according to a consensus (on an element-by-
element basis) reached by three analysts. This approach was used to
mitigate the potential influence of any single coder's biases and idio-
syncrasies. A numerical assignment, u (0 ≤ ≤ 1, in steps of 0.1),
was made for each element in response to the following question:
How visually important is this element to this photograph?
Encoded by this method, the fuzzy sets served as a formal defi-
nition of the targets for the analysis. It should be noted that our
USE defined targets in terms of visual importance.4 If other dimen-
sions are of interest (e.g., conceptual, functional, allegorical), the
USE would have to be revised to incorporate them.
In an actual experimental series, it is critical that the target fuzzy
sets be defined by analysts before the series begins. Because of the
potential information leakage owing to bias on the part of the ana-
lyst, it is an obvious mistake to attempt to define the target fuzzy set
Son a target-by-target basis in real time or post hoc.
Response Fuzzy Sets
To define RV response fuzzy sets, membership values u are as-
signed for each element in the USE by asking: To what degree am
I (the analyst) convinced that this element is represented in this re-
Osponse? For example, if a response explicitly states "water," then the
membership value for the water-element should be 1. If, however,
Sthe response is a rough sketch of what might be waves, then the
membership value for the water-element might be only 0.3, depend-
Ning on the specificity of the drawing. This definition of membership
value is quite general and can be used in most applications.
In our example, responses were coded according to this defini-
otion (but still using the USE in Appendix A). The assigned p's for
Sthe targets and responses were one-digit fuzzy numbers on the in-
terval [0,1] (e.g., 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, etc.). In some rare cases, two-digit
assignments (e.g., 0.05, 0.15, 0.25, 0.35, etc.) were made; any finer
assignments, however, were deemed to be meaningless. Thus, the
response was defined as its fuzzy subset of the USE.
4 Implied visual importance was ignored. For example, in a photograph of the
Grand Canyon that did not show the Colorado River, water, river, and so on would
be scored as zero. By definition the target was only what was visible in the photo-
graph.
Advances in Remote-Viewing Analysis
201
In an actual experimental series, each response fuzzy set is cre-
ated by analysts who are blind to the intended target.
Fuzzy Set Definition of Figure of Merit
Once the fuzzy sets that define the target and the response have
been specified, the comparison between them to provide a figure of
merit (FM) is straightforward. In previous work (Humphrey et al,
1986), we have defined accuracy as the percent of the target material
that was described correctly by a response. Likewise, we have de-
fined reliability (of the viewer) as the percent of the response that
was correct. The FM is the product of the two; to obtain a high FM,
a response must be a comprehensive description of the target and
be devoid of inaccuracies. The mathematical definitions for accuracy
and reliability for the jth target/response pair are as follows. Let
Hx(R;) and p.(T;) be the membership values for the kth element @
USE for the ith response and the jth target, respectively. Then the
accuracy and reliability for the ith response applied to the jth target
are given by:
Ew min{u, (R.),μ.(T;)}
accuracy;j = @j =
*
EWAHLA(T)
Ew min{μ, (R;),μ. (Τ;)}
reliabilityij = Tij =
*
W+
where the sum over k is called the sigma count in fuzzy set terminol
ogy, and is defined as the sum of the membership values. We have
allowed for the possibility of weighting the membership values with
weights W, in order to examine various level/element contributions
to the FM. The index, k, ranges over the entire USE.
For the above calculation to be meaningful, the p's for the tar
gets must be similar in meaning to the p's for the responses. As w
noted above, in our definition of the membership values, this is no
the case. The target u's represent the visual importance of the ele
ment relative to the scene, and the response p's represent the de
gree to which an analyst is convinced that the element is repres
sented in the response regardless of its relevance to that response.
With advanced viewers it might be possible to change the defi-
nition of the response u's to match the definition of the target 's.
In that case, the viewer must not only recognize that an element is
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The Journal of Parapsychology
present in the target, but must also provide information as to how
visually important it is. This ability is currently beyond the skill of
most novice viewers. Alternatively, we have opted to modify the tar-
get u definition by using the fuzzy set technique of a-cuts. In our
example, an -cut is a way to set a threshold for visual importance.
All target elements possessing that threshold value or higher are
considered to be full members of the target set. In fuzzy set par-
lance, an a-cut converts a fuzzy set to a crisp one. The result is that
the target set is now devoid of detailed visual information: a poten-
tial target element is either present or absent in the target set, re-
gardless of its actual visual importance. Even with this conceptual
change in the target definition, the FM formalism described above
remains applicable, because a crisp set can be considered as a fuzzy
set with all membership values equal to 0 or 1. It is important to
recognize that the a-cut is only applied to the target set; the re-
sponse set remains fuzzy.
Assessment of Quality of the Remote Viewing
It is difficult to arrive at a general assessment of how well a given
·response matches a specified target. The ideal situation is to obtain
some absolute measure of goodness of match. Although the FM is
ian approximation to this measure, it is impossible to assess the like-
Gihood of a particular FM value because it requires knowledge of the
Jiewer's specific response bias for the session. It is possible to deter-
inine general response biases (May et al., 1985), but that knowledge
only useful on the average. For example, a viewer may love rock
climbing and may spend most of his free time involved in that ac-
vity. Thus, the general response bias would probably entail aspects
Ef mountains, rocks, ropes, and so forth. Suppose, however, that the
Wewer spent the evening previous to a given RV session on a ro-
Santic moonlight sail on San Francisco Bay. For this specific RV
session, the response bias might include romantic images of the
Boonlit water, lights of the city, and bridges.
The current solution to the problem is to provide a relative as-
sessment of FM likelihood. A relative assessment addresses the fol-
lowing question: "How good is the response matched against its in-
tended target, when compared to all possible targets that could have
been chosen for the session?" This is not ideal, since the answer de-
pends on the nature of the remaining targets in the pool. An ex-
ample of the worst-case scenario illustrates the problem. Suppose
...
Advances in Remote-Viewing Analysis
203
that the target pool consisted of 100 photographs of waterfalls, and
the viewer gave a near-perfect description of a waterfall. (We as-
sume that this description is not fortuitous.) An absolute assessment
of the resulting FM should be good, whereas a relative assessment
will be low. The worst-case scenario can be avoided, to a large de
gree, by carefully selecting the target pool. (See the later section "AS
Quantitative Definition of Target Orthogonality.")
To provide a relative assessment of the likelihood of a given FM,
we define the score for one session to be the number of targets, n, T
out of a total, N, that have an FM equal to or higher than the FM
achieved by the correct match." The answer to the question: "Given
this response, what is the probability of selecting a target that would
match it as well as or better than the target selected?" is n/N.
Consecutive RV responses by the same viewer are not statistically
independent, nor can the responses be considered to be random in
any sense. The statistically independent random element in the ses-
sion is the target. Since targets are selected with replacement, under
the null hypothesis of no psi, the collection of scores derived over a
series of m trials constitutes a set of independent random variables,
each with a discrete uniform distribution. Under the null hypothe-
sis, the mean chance expectation for the score in each session is
given by (N + 1)/2 and the variance is given by (N2 - 1)/12. If K
is the sum of scores from a series of remote viewings, then the prob-
ability of K, under the null hypothesis, can be obtained from the
exact distribution for the sum of ranks given by Solfvin, Kelly, and
Burdick (1978):
p(K or less) = - Σ Σ (-1)" (")
N
m - 1
a - bŅ - 1)
(1)
If m is large, then the sum-of-ranks distribution is approximately
normal and K/m has a mean of (N + 1)/2 and a variance of
(N2 - 1)/12m. Thus, a z score can be computed from:
0.5(N + 1) -
K
m
z(K or less) =
V
N2 - 1
12m
(2)
.
5 N must be the size of the target pool from which each target was randomly
selected, and for this theoretical discussion, we assume no ties.
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Ground Truth
To determine whether the new analytical approach was effective,
a standard had to be developed against which it could be measured.
It was determined that this standard-known as "ground truth"-
should consist of a "real-world" normalized consensus about the de-
gree of correspondence between RV responses and their intended
ctargets.
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To achieve this objective, we presented analysts (chosen from the
@general SRI staff) with the same test case of six remote-viewing re-
Sponses and their associated targets. The test case was the data from
Ça single viewer (177) taken from an experimental series in a 1986
zphotomultiplier tube experiment (Hubbard, May, & Frivold, 1987).
"The responses (i.e., two to five pages of rudimentary drawings with
"some associated descriptive words) were fairly typical of novice
@viewer output and represented a broad range of response quality.
SThe targets consisted of six photographs of outdoor scenes selected
from a National Geographic magazine target pool of 200. Thus, this
Adata set was ideally suited for an analysis testbed. Appendix B con-
Stains the "best" and "worst" trials (Sessions 9005 and 9004, respec-
"tively) from this series in the form of their responses, their intended
Qtargets, and their fuzzy set encodings (see the next section).
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Each analyst was asked individually for his subjective judgment
about the degree of correspondence between the remote-viewing re-
usponses and their respective intended targets. The "degree of cor-
"respondence" was purposely undefined; the analysts had to formu-
Plate their own criteria. The only information provided was that
Iresponses typically begin with small bits of information and even-
otually culminate in a composite drawing at the end. Appendix C
contains the coding form that was used to obtain "ground truth."
Each analyst was instructed to examine all of the responses and
their intended targets. Then, on a session-by-session basis, he was
asked: (1) to assess the degree of correspondence between the
remote-viewing response and its intended target, and (2) to register
this correspondence assessment by making a vertical hash mark
across a 10-cm scale ranging from "none" to "complete."
To perform the ground truth analysis, distance measurements
were taken from the left end point of each scale to the vertical slash
mark for each assessment. Let the distance obtained for the kth ses-
Advances in Remote-Viewing Analysis
205
sion from the jth analyst be given by x ;... To account for analysts'
biases, the xx, were normalized by a z transformation,
-
where p; and o, are the mean and standard deviation of the jth an-
alyst's distance scores, xj ... The effect of this transformation is to
convert an analyst's absolute subjective opinion to a relative one. For
the jth analyst, the largest zj, indicates that the degree of corre-
spondence for response/target k is higher than any other pair in the
series. It does not indicate overall quality. This type of transforma-
tion was necessary since we wished to combine the assessments from
a number of different analysts.
To combine the assessments across analysts, we computed the
mean z score for each response/target pair, k, as:
1
2
Na j= 1
where Na is the number of analysts. The number of analysts was
determined by the data. For the best response/target pair (i.e .; ses-
sion 9005, k = 5) we computed the percent change of z, for every
additional analyst. When the addition of two new analysts produced
consecutive changes of less than 2%, the process was considered
complete. For this data set, 37 analysts were required before this
condition was met. Figure 2 shows the normalized mean for each
target/response pair, and represents a relative assessment of remote-
viewing quality. These means constitute the basis for the ground
truth against which the fuzzy set technique was measured. We re-
cognize that this definition of ground truth is based on global deci-
sions and may not be most optimal (Dawes, 1988).
Results of the Fuzzy Set Analysis
To effect a meaningful comparison between ground truth and
the figure of merit analysis, we also analyzed the same RV series
that served as the ground truth set by the fuzzy set figure of merit
method. The fuzzy set membership values (p's) for the six targets
and six responses were consensus coded by five analysts ranging
from expert to novice. A typical spread of u assignments was ± 0.1
with an occasional outlier. Some of the elements were vigorously de-
bated until a consensus was reached. Accuracies, reliabilities, and
:
.
*
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1.5
Normalized Mean
0.5
-0.5
-1.5
9001
9002
9003
9004
9005
9006
Session Number
Figure 2. Normalized mean for each target/response pair.
figures of merit were calculated for each target/response pair (Table
1). It should be noted that the encoding was a post hoc exercise, but
because the assignment for each element in the USE had to be de-
fended before a consensus was reached, the FMs shown in Table 1
constitute reasonable estimates of their "blind" equivalents. Appen-
dix B shows the target and response elements that were scored from
the universal set (see Appendix A) for Sessions 9004 and 9005. As
an example of the fuzzy calculation, Appendix B also shows the re-
0.500
Fuzzy Sets
Ground Truth
0.375
Figure of Merit
0.250
0.125
0
9001
9002
9003
9004
9005
9006
Session Number
Figure 3. Comparison with ground truth.
TABLE 1
FUZZY SET QUANTITIES FOR "GROUND TRUTH" SERIES
Session
Accuracy
Reliability
Figure of
merit
Rank
Fractional
rank
9001
.317
.484
.153
80
.403
9002
.273
.477
.130
103
.515
9003
.358
.571
.205
31
.155
9004
.212
.379
.080
142
.713
9005
.573
.594
.340
3
.015
9006
.298
.555
.165
13
.068
sults of the target a-cut, the fuzzy intersection, and the accuracy,
reliability, and figure of merit for Session 9005. Table I also shows
the absolute and relative ranks from a target pool of 200. To deter-
mine the absolute rank for each session, we calculated figures of
merit for all 200 targets in the pool and placed them in numerical
order from the largest to the smallest. The absolute rank is just the
position (from the top) of the FM corresponding to the intended
target. Ties were resolved by choosing the next larger integer rank
number to the centroid of the ties. The fractional rank number can
be considered a p value for an individual session and is equal to the
absolute rank/200. Using Equation 1, the overall p value for the
combined six trials is .052 (N = 200, K = 372, m = 6). Using the
approximation (Equation 2), we compute z = 1.633, p ≤ .05, to
demonstrate that for six trials, the approximation in reasonable. For
completeness, we compute the effect size (r = 0.67).
To compare the results of the fuzzy set analysis with those of the
ground truth, we linearly renormalized the ground truth figures to
be within the interval [0,1] and to possess the same maximum and
minimum. As can be seen from Figure 3, the results from the fuzzy
set analysis system parallel those obtained by a consensus of the 37
analysts each making a subjective assessment of the matches,
These results imply that the combination of (1) the structure of
the USE (i.e., the linguistic hierarchical structure), (2) the fuzzy set
mathematics, and (3) a consensus approach to assessing the fuzzy
sets themselves provided a reasonable representation of the subjec-
tive scoring of the same data by a large number of individuals.
A Quantitative Definition of Target Orthogonality
It is often of interest to define how similar or dissimilar targets
are to each other. For example, free-response experiments like the
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TABLE 2
NAMES OF THE 19 CLUSTERS
No.
Name
No
Name
1
Flat towns
11
Cities with prominent geometries
2
Waterfalls
12
Snowy mountains
3
Mountain towns
13
Valleys with rivers
4
Cities with prominent structure
14
Meandering rivers
6
Desert/water interfaces
16
Outposts in snowy mountains
7 Deserts
17
Islands
8 Dry ruins
18
Verdant ruins
9 Towns on water
19
Agricultural scenes
detail. A much more complex-and visually difficult to under-
stand-graph is generated for the full cluster analysis and is not
included here; this smaller subset, therefore, has been chosen to be
illustrative of the whole analysis. All targets in this particular sample
cluster are islands; the island in each photograph is visible in its en-
tirety. Except for one outlier (i.e., a hexagonal building covering an;
island), the islands fall into two main groups (i.e., with and without
Linear Geometries
(e.g., Runways)
1198
Target 1xxx
Number
1138
1128
1186
Many Structures
1179
(c.g., Town)
1177
Ruins -
=> 1083
1185
Flat And Verdant
1139
1140-
Sand Bars
1088
1161
Mountains
1049
1038
Hexagonal Building Covering Island
-- > 1003
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1 - Sij
Figure 4. Cluster analysis of island targets.
...
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ganzfeld often use target packets, with the unselected targets in a
packet serving as decoys for judging. Assigning potential targets to
packets would be easier with some measure of target orthogonality.
Target definition for the purposes of this mode of analysis is ex-
actly the same as the one described (i.e., a given target is defined by
its fuzzy subset of the USE, which has been coded to reflect the vis-
Mal importance of each target element). The average number of ele-
ments, of the total of 131, that was assigned a nonzero value for the
Stargets in our pool of 200 was approximately 37, indicating that the
fuzzy set representation of the target pool is rich in visual infor-
'mation. We used this information to determine the degree to which
the target set contains visually similar targets.
It is beyond the scope of this paper to describe the extensive
@work in the literature seeking to find algorithmic techniques that
mimic human assessments of visual similarity. One recent article de-
D scribes techniques similar to the one we used (Zick, Carlstein, & Bu-
ydescu, 1987).
We begin by defining the simlarity between target i and target j
to be a normalized fuzzy set intersection between the two target sets:
2
-
*
EW min{μ.(T;), μα (Γ;)}
Sj = -
EW.P.(T) ΣWHAT;)
-
where the index k ranges over the entire USE. We have allowed for
the possibility of weighting the membership values with weights W.
to examine various level/element contributions to the target similar-
ities.
For N targets, there are N(N- 1)/2 unique values (19,900 for N
= 200) of Saj. The values i and j that correspond to the largest value
of Sy represent the two targets that "look" most similar. Suppose
another target m is chosen and Smi and Smj are computed. If both of
these values are larger than Sm,n (for all n not equal to i or j), then
target m is assessed to be most similar to the pair ij. The process of
grouping targets based on these similarities is called cluster analysis.
Using this process, 200 targets were grouped into 19 clusters,
such that the targets are similar within a cluster, and dissimilar be-
tween clusters. Table 2 provides an overview of the 19 clusters
found from the total analysis of the 200 targets. Some of the names
appear to be quite similar, but, in fact, these sets are visually quite
distinctive. Figure 4 shows the graphic output of a single cluster in
:
A
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10 Outposts on water
15
Alpine scenes
5
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The Journal of Parapsychology
manmade elements). The natural islands include three similar
mountain islands, two sandbars, and two flat verdant islands.
Using cluster analysis in conjunction with fuzzy set analysis pro-
vides for a quantitative definition of sets of targets that are similar
to each other within a cluster, but visually different across clusters.
Orthogonal clusters can be used to provide visual decoy targets for
traditional rank-order judging.
Recommendations and Conclusions
To apply the analysis in its present form to a long RV series is
@quite labor intensive and, from the results shown in Figure 3, is
"most likely not justified since this fuzzy set technique approximates
phuman assessment. As we stated in the introduction, however, we
are providing only a progress report of ongoing research. Because
Cof the decision concepts described in Dawes (1988) and the obvious
benefits of an automated evaluation system, the effort to improve
what was described in this paper is certainly justified. The proce-
oure can be used "as is" to improve and quantify target orthogo-
pality.
Several future research areas are suggested to improve the tech-
¿iques described in this paper. The use of both inter- and intra-level
Eweighting factors needs to be examined systematically. In the analy-
is described above, all levels and elements were accorded equal
aveight. The ideal goal would be to determine the optimal weighted
Six of abstract versus concrete elements, as a means to achieving
The following objectives:
1. Refinement of the cluster analysis for targets, in an effort to
simulate, as closely as possible, what is meant by "visual simi-
larities" between targets.
2. Refinement of the analysis of responses, in an effort to
achieve even greater correlations between the fuzzy set figure
of merit analysis and various forms of ground truth.
Another area that requires examination in some detail is the
USE and the hierarchical nature of its structure. It is probable that
some elements are more appropriate than others; furthermore, they
might be more effectively structured in a semantic network as op-
posed to a true hierarchy. If a hierarchical structure is retained,
then some attention must be paid to the formulation of logical con-
sistency rules that govern element use. This would include numeri-
Advances in Remote-Viewing Analysis
211
cal relationships governing the membership values (p's) of higher-
order elements (e.g., port) vis-à-vis the combined value of their con-
stituent parts (e.g., city, river, boats, jetties, commercial).
One inadequacy of the system is that it atomizes conceptual
"units." For example, if the response element is red box, information
is lost in separating red from box. Current research in fuzzy set the-
ory indicates that fuzzy aggregates of fuzzy elements-"fuzzy sets of
fuzzy sets"-are mathematically complex but possible. Some effort
should be made to determine whether this technology could be im-
plemented as a means to capturing the information content of the
RV response with greater accuracy.
For the visual analysis, research into visual similarities between
pictures of natural scenes may serve as a potential refinement tool.
The aim here would be to enhance the visual orthogonality of rank-
order analysis decoy targets as much as possible. Experiments in
normal perception of similarities would assist in determining
whether scenes are perceived as similar because of their low-level
geometries, concrete elements, or some combination of factors. The
ultimate aim would be to refine the target cluster analysis such that
it closely simulates ground truth representations of orthogonality.
APPENDIX A
CODING FORMS FOR THE UNIVERSAL SET OF ELEMENTS
The following coding forms illustrate the use of a universal set of elements
(USE) that matched our particular special targets, viewers, and requirements.
We constructed our USE by including a list of features present in photographs
from the National Geographic with elements obtained from the remote-
viewing responses in earlier experiments.
..
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Figure A2. Coding form.
CONCRETE DESCRIPTOR LEVELS II
Experiment:
THal:
Resp./Targ:
Coder:
Viewer:
LEVEL
SETTLEMENT
ELEVATION
LAND/WATER
INTERFACE
NO
WATER OR
VEGETATION
VEGETATION
AMBIENCE/
FUNCTION
21
port {harbor)
23
agricultural
fields
24
industrial
22
[oasis]
(orchards)
25
recreational
26
religious
27
mechanical
7
20
technical
29
agricultural
ruins
(incomplete
buildings)
35
mesa
[plateau)
watertak
desert
forest
31
wilderness
37
glacier
41
jungle
32
urban
34
canal (channel,
42
(marsh)
(pastoral)
131
(archaeological)
:
unbounded large
expanse of water
8
vegetation
(treos)
44
town (village)
47
bumps, humps,
55
expanse of water
45
city
45
mountains
partially bounded
5
cliff(s)
expanse of water (bay)
50
[plain, delta]
57
Island
valley (cient.
56
61
gully, kreg.
50
coastline
52
canyon
53
shape, regular
depression]
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CONCRETE DESCRIPTOR LEVELS I
Experiment:
THại:
Resp./Targ:
Coder:
Viewer:
SUBSTRUCTURES
LEVEL
SINGLE STRUCTURES
fort
-
castle
palace
4
church (other religious buildings, monastery)
19
mosque
.
pagoda
1
coliseum (stadlum,
amphitheater, arena)
10
boats (berges)
·
bridge
11
pier (jetty)
.
[dam (lock, spillway)]
12
(cars, trucks, trains))
13
column
1ª
spire (minaret, lower)
15
fountain
10
lence
17
arch
18
wal (e g . the Great Wall)
monument
roads
B
8
commercial
6
manmade
waterway)
historical
Isolated
settlement
40
single peak
(ocean, sea)
hills (slopes,
completely bounded
mounds)
(lake, pool, pond)
swamp
rural
river (stream, creek)
depression)
[crater, bowl-
Figure Al. Coding form.
[motorized vehicles

Figure A3. Coding form.
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ABSTRACT DESCRIPTOR LEVELS I
Experiment:
Trial:
Resp./Targ:
Coder:
Vlewer:
QUALITIES
LEVEL
COLOR
OTHER
VISUAL
IMPLIED
TEXTURE
IMPLIED
TEMPERATURE
IMPLIED
MOVEMENT
AMBIENCE
yellow
71
shiny (reflective)
80
smooth
45
hot
89
flowing
01
congested (clutered.
dense, busy)
02
orange |72
[gold]
8
fuzzy
8
cold (snow, Ice) 90
other
implied
movement 92
serene (peacet).
unhurried.
untrenebc)
63
red
73
[silver]
82
grany (sandy.
crumbly)
87
humid
blue
74
[chrome]
88
dry (arid)
85
green
75
[copper]
8
stated
(pink)
brown
77
(beige)
misty)
black
78
old
8 2
70
grey
Incomplete)
ARCHETYPES
STRUCTURE
ELEVATION
INTERFACE
UNIQUENESS
AMBIENCE
97
building(s)
{structure(s))
rise (vertical nsa
as well as slope)
100
lightdark areas
(bg swaths)
104
single (or centra!)
predominant feature
100
manmade
(or altered)
10
boundaries
odd (or surprising)
107
natural
102
land water
interface
103
interlace (horizon)
Figure A4. Coding form.
ABSTRACT DESCRIPTOR LEVELS II
Experiment:
Trial:
.Resp./Targ:
Coder:
Viewer:
2-D & 3-D GEOMETRIES
LEVEL
RECTILINEAR
FORMS
CUAVILINEAR
FORMS
MIXED
FORMS
IRREGULAR
FORMS
REPEAT
MOTIF
100
rectangle
(squat.
box)
112
circle (oval.
sphere)
114
cylinder
117
irregular
forms
(irregular
features)
118
repeat motif
trianglie
100
(trapezoid.
pyramia)
116
(hemisphere,
dome)
110
other polygonal
(> 4 sces: hexagon.
octagon., etc.)
E
cross-tatch
(grid)
1-D GEOMETRY
119
stopped
-
127
arc (curve)
130
meandering curve
120
parallel ines
120
wave form Inpples)
121
vertical ines
129
spiral
122
horizontal lines
-
1
123
diagona' ines
124
V-shape
125
inverted V-shape
120
other angies
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3
8
flat
105
juxtaposition of
elements
vast, expansive,
05
ordered (aligned)
disordered fjumroled.
unaligned}
white
weathered
(eroded,
83
rocky (ragged.
rugged, jagged,
nooled, rough)
closed in
(claustrophobic)
open {spacious.
purple
obscured (fuzzy,
dim, smoky)
cloudy ftoggy.
98
113
[lorus ]
115
cone
sernicircle
lang sky

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APPENDIX B
FUZZY SET ANALYSIS TESTBED
The following pages show the targets, responses, and analysis for two
remote-viewing trials.
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OFigure B1. Target for Session 9004.
Task is to identify slide
in PMT halde
Target
tall-vertical feature
break
Figure B2. Page one of the response (Session 9004, Target 1094)
"
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Target
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Target
rising in bach ground
boundary
1
-
vertical
feature
smooth
texture
0
4
structures
D
D
smooth- fine graininess
openings
flat
FLAT
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rectangular opening
-
flat
Playa-like
break
Figure B3. Page two of the response (Session 9004, Target 1094).
END of Less-ON
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TABLE BI
TARGET-RESPONSE 9004
Element
Name
Target
Response
20
Roads
0.30
0.00
23
Agricultural fields
0.05
0.00
32
Urban
0.00
0.50
33
Rural, pastoral
0.60
0.50
44
Town, village
0.00
0.40
46
Single peak
0.70
0.00
47
Hills, slopes, bumps, mounds
0.10
0.40
48
Mountains
0.00
0.60
49
Cliffs
0.00
0.10
60
Vegetation, trees
0.30
0.00
64
Blue
0.50
0.00
65
Green
0.30
0.00
69
White
0.10
0.00
70
Grey
0.20
0.00
76
Obscured, fuzzy, dim, smoky
.0.20
0.00
77
Cloudy, foggy, misty
0.20
0.00
79
Weathered, eroded, incomplete
0.00
0.10
80
Smooth
0.00
1.00
81
Fuzzy
0.20
0.00
82
Grainy, sandy, crumbly
0.20
1.00
90
Other implied movement
0.20
0.00
91
Congested, cluttered, busy
0.10
0.30
92
Serene, peaceful, unhurried
0.40
0.00
93
Closed in, claustrophobic
0.00
0.10
94
Open, spacious, vast
0.60
0.00
95
Ordered, aligned
0.00
0.40
Buildings, structures
0.00
1.00
Rise, vertical rise, slope
0.60
1.00
99
Flat
0.30
1.00
100
Light/dark areas
0.10
0.00
101
Boundaries
0.30
1.00
103
Land/sky interface
0.50
0.00
104
Single predominant feature
0.60
0.00
105
Odd juxtaposition, surprising
0.30
0.00
106
Manmade, altered
0.20
0.80
107
Natural
0.70
0.20
108
Rectangle, square, box
0.00
1.00
109
Triangle, pyramid, trapezoid
0.60
0.00
115
Cone
0.60
0.00
Irregular forms
0.00
0.20
Repeat motif
0.10
0.60
Stepped
0.10
0.70
120
Parallel lines
0.10
0.00
121
Vertical lines
0.10
1.00
122
Horizontal lines
0.10
0.00
123
Diagonal lines
0.40
0.00
125
Inverted V-shape
0.70
0.00
126
Other angles
0.00
0.10
Figure B6. Page one of response (Session 9005, Target 1005).
1
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Figure B5. Target for Session 9005.
Task is to descubre slide
Target in PS 345
Target
interface.
curing
Land
water
break
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4.
0.00
0.50
City
45
97
98
117
118
119

222
Touget
Target
8- step vertical
rise
- step retal
1 mound-like
- curved
squasfeatures
-ridge
- stepped
break
Target
steep
Rising
very shop
Jop 088
break
Figure B7. Page two of response (Session 9005, Target 1005).
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break
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Target
open
ragged boundary
fine-grained
1textwe
water
is
up close to
stepped feature
53)
-
freak
Figure B9. Page four of response (Session 9005, Target 1005).
Target
openin distance
Land
- Flat
steep
incline
water boundary
Land
stepped
features
-
steep
drop
feels
* funny
stepped feature
curve
around
Figure B10. Page five of response (Session 9005, Target 1005).
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TABLE B2
TARGET-RESPONSE 9005
Element Name
Target
Response To - 02
TOR
14
Spire, minaret, tower
0.00
0.20
0
0.00
20
Roads
0.10
0.10
0
0.00
32
Urban
0.80
0.70
1
0.70
38
Canal, manmade waterway
0.00
0.10
0
0.00
44
Town, village
0.90
0.70
1
0.70
45
City
0.00
0.20
0
0.00
46
Hills, slopes, bumps, mounds
0.00
0.10
()
0.00
47
Unbounded large expanse water
0.30
0.30
1
0.30
56
Partially bounded water
0.00
0.40
0
0.00
58
River, stream, creek
0.00
0.20
0
0.00
59
Coastline
60
Vegetation, trees
0,25
0.00
1
0.00
64
Blue
0.20
0.00
I
0.00
65
Green
0.50
0.00
1
0.00
67
Brown, beige
0,10
0.00
0)
0.00
White
0.10
0.00
0
0.00
Grey
0.10
0.00
0
0.00
80
Smooth
0.00
1.00
0
0.00
81
Fuzzy
0.00
1.00
0
0.00
82
Grainy, sandy, crumbly
0.00
1.00
0
0.00
91
Congested, cluttered, busy
0.10
1.00
0
0.00
96
Disordered, jumbled, unaligned
0.30
0.00
1
0.00
97
Buildings, structures
0.00
1.00
0
0.00
98
Rise, vertical rise, slope
0.50
1.00
1
1.00
99
Flat
0.10
0.00
0
0.00
100
Light/dark areas
0.20
1.00
1
1.00
101
Boundaries
0.30
1.00
1
1.00
102
Land/water interface
0.10
0.10
0
0.00
103
Land/sky interface
104
Single predominant feature
0.10
0.40
0
0.00
106
Manmade, altered
0.80
0.80
1
0.80
107
Natural
0.20
0.20
1
0.20
108
Rectangle, square, box
0.70
1.00
1
1.00
111
Cross-hatch, grid
0.30
0.00
1
0.00
112
Circle, oval, sphere
0.10
0.00
0
0.00
116
Semicircle, dome, hemisphere
0.10
0.30
0
0.00
1034-
9002
1042
9003
1065
9004
1094
125
Inverted V-shape
0.00
0.20
0
0.00
127
Arc, curve
0.30
1.00
1
1.00
128
Wave form
0.00
0.10
0
0.00
Totals
21.20
22.00
12.60
.
Advances in Remote-Viewing Analysis
227
APPENDIX C
"GROUND TRUTH" INSTRUCTION AND CODING FORM
Analysts' Instructions for Remote-Viewing Series 900X
Thank you for helping us perform a post hoc assessment of a series of
remote viewings. The targets were actually 35-mm slides that were attacked
to a photomultiplier, a device to measure small amounts of light. We wgye
searching for possible physical correlates to remote viewing.
You will find in your packet 6 remote viewing responses labeled 9005-
9006 respectively. Also shown is the target number of the intended photo-
graph. We have supplied the original, rather than the 35-mm slide.
Approved For Release
We would like you to make a subjective judgment as to the degree &f
correspondence between the remote viewing response and its associated to-
get. Familiarize yourself with the task by first looking at all the responses
and their intended targets. Then, on a session-by-session basis, rate your
assessments. You are completely free to define what is meant by "Degree.of
Correspondence." Indicate your judgment by marking one line. across tor
appropriate continuous scale shown below. A vertical line near the "None'
end of the scale will indicate that you feel there is very little correspondenyo
between that response-target pair. Likewise a vertical line near the "Con
plete" end of the scale will indicate that you feel that there is a significam
degree of correspondence.
Many of the responses begin with a little information and build towar
a composite drawing at the end. Please assess the response in its entirety @
best you can. Thank you again.
SESSION
DEGREE OF CORRESPONDENCE
TARGET
None
Complete
9001
1
0.80
118
Repeat motif
0.20
1.00
1
1.00
119
Stepped
0.30
0.30
1
0.30
120
Parallel lines
0.50
1.00
1
1.00
121
Vertical lines
0.10
0.00
0
0.00
122
Horizontal lines
0.10
0.20
0
0.00
123
Diagonal lines
9005
1005
9006
1024
1
0.20
0.20
0.20
69
83
Rocky, ragged, rubbled, rough
0.70
0.70
1
0.70
94
Open, spacious, vast
0.00
0.30
95
Ordered, aligned
0.80
0.90
1
0.90
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Accuracy = 0.573
Reliability = 0.594
Figure of merit = 0.340
0.30
0.00
Single peak
0.00
0.40
0.00
54
0.00
0.40
0.80
0.00
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228
The Journal of Parapsychology
REFERENCES
DAWES, R. M. (1988). Rational choice in an uncertain world. New York: Har-
court, Brace, Jovanovich.
HONORTON, C. (1975). Objective determination of information rate in psi
tasks with pictorial stimuli. Journal of the American Society for Psychical
Research, 69, 353-359.
HUBBARD, G. S., MAY, E. C., & FRIVOLD, T. J. (1987). Possible photon pro-
duction during a remote viewing task: A replication experiment. Final
Report, SRI Project 1291, SRI International, Menlo Park, California.
HUMPHREY, B. S., MAY, E. C., TRASK, V. V., & THOMSON, M. J. (1986).
Remote viewing evaluation techniques. Final Report, SRI Project 1291,
SRI International, Menlo Park, California.
HUMPHREY, B. S., MAY, E. C., & UTIS, J. M. (1988). Fuzzy set technology
in the analysis of remote viewing. Proceedings of the 31st Annual Conven-
tion of the Parapsychological Association (pp. 378-394).
JAHN, R. G., DUNNE, B. J., & JAHN, E. G. (1980). Analytical judging pro-
cedure for remote perception experiments. Journal of Parapsychology,
44, 207-231.
MAY, E. C. (1983). A remote viewing evaluation protocol. Final Report (re-
vised), SRI Project 4028, SRI International, Menlo Park, California.
MAY, E. C., HUMPHREY, B. S., & MATHEWS, C. (1985). A figure of merit
analysis for free-response material. Proceedings of the 28th Annual Con-
vention of the Parapsychological Association, (pp. 343-354).
PUTHOFF, H. E., & TARG, R. (1976). A perceptual channel for information
transfer over kilometer distances: Historical perspective and recent re-
search. Proceedings of the IEEE, 64(3), 329-354.
SOLFVIN, G. F., KELLY, E. F., & BURDICK, D. S. (1978). Some new methods
of analysis for preferential-ranking data. Journal of the American Society
for Psychical Research, 72(2), 93-110.
TARG, R., PUTHOFF, H. E., & MAY, E. C. (1977). State of the art in remote
viewing studies at SRI. 1977 Proceedings of the International Conference of
Cybernetics and Society (pp. 519-529).
ZICK, R., CARLSTEIN, E., & BUDESCU, D. V. (1987). Measures of similarity
among fuzzy concepts: A comparative analysis. International Journal of
Approximate Reasoning, 1(2), 221-242.
SRI International
333 Ravenswood Av.
Menlo Park, CA 94025
Division of Statistics
University of California, Davis
Davis, CA 95616
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OBSERVATION OF NEUROMAGNETIC FIELDS IN RESPONSE TO
REMOTE STIMULI
by
Edwin C. May, Wanda W. Luke, Virginia V. Trask, and Thane J. Frivold
SRI International, Menlo Park, California
ABSTRACT
We have conducted a conceptual replication of an SRI/Langley Porter study in which a single subject's
central nervous system (CNS) responded to a remote, and isolated flashing light. The CNS activity of
eight remote viewers was monitored by a seven-channel magnetoencephalograph (MEG). Visual stimu-
li were randomly presented to an isolated individual who acted as a "sender" while MEG data were col-
lected from a viewer (receiver). The stimuli were 5-cm square, linear, vertical, sinusoidal gratings lasting
100 ms (remote stimuli). Time markers were randomly inserted into the data stream as control points
(pseudo stimuli). The dependent variable was the root-mean-square (RMS) average phase shift of the
dominant alpha frequency. Using a Monte Carlo technique to estimate p-values, we observed signifi-
cant (combined across all viewers) RMS phase shifts resulting from the remote stimuli (Z, = 1.99, p ≤
0.024, effect size = 0.599). Similarly, the combined statistic for the pseudo stimuli was also significant (Z,
= 2.92, p < 0.002, effect size = 0.924). The phase shifts from the remote and the pseudo stimuli are
independently not characteristic of the data at large. This result was unexpected, and suggests that we
may have observed a CNS response to an unintended stimulus (i.e., electromagnetic interference, EMI,
from the computing hardware). However, in the SRI/Langley Porter study, EMI had been eliminated,
thus, it remains possible that the CNS changes resulted from an anomalous form of information transfer.
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I INTRODUCTION
1. Physiological Correlates to
Psychoenergetic Function-
Ing: A Brief History
Evidence from several laboratories has indicated
the possible existence of an as-yet-unidentified
channel wherein information is coupled from re-
mote electromagnetic stimuli to the human nerv-
ous system. Usually, the coupling has been
indicated by physiological responses, even though
there was no evidence of cognitive awareness of
these stimuli. Physiological measures have in-
cluded a plethysmographic response1" and elec-
troencephalogram (EEG) activity.2,3 Kamiya,
Lindsley, Pribram, Silverman, Walter, and others
have suggested that the whole range of EEG ac-
tivity, including evoked potentials, spontaneous
EEG, and the contingent negative variation
(CNV) might be sensitive indicators of responses
to any remote stimuli.4
In 1974, SRI International conducted a pilot study
that investigated a single remote viewer's central
nervous system (CNS) response to a remote light
stimulus.5 In this experiment, the viewer was
asked to focus attention on a remote flashing
(16-hertz [Hz]) light. Control periods (no light
flashing) were randomly mixed with effort periods
(light flashing). The viewer was further asked to
register when het perceived the flashing light by
pressing a button.
During this pilot experiment, the viewer showed a
significant* decrease in alpha production when
the remote light was flashing, compared with
when the light was off. His button presses were
random, however, indicating he was not cogni-
tively aware of the flashing light. Two replications
of this experiment were conducted with the same
viewer at Langley Porter Neuropsychiatric Insti-
tute in San Francisco by Drs. David Galin and
Robert Ornstein.6 In the first of two experiments,
the viewer continued to show a significant de-
crease of occipital alpha production only under
the remote flashing light condition. In a second
experiment conducted 3 months later, however,
the viewer demonstrated a significant increas
occipital alpha production.
Although we found that significant correlati
appear to exist between the times of light flas.
and CNS activity, we considered this result to
only suggestive, with a definitive conclusion
quiring further experimentation.
With the advent of more sensitive CNS monitori
equipment, known as magnetoencephalograp
(MEG), and with an additional 15 years of remo
viewing experience, SRI conducted an experime.
to explore possible correlations between CNS acti
ity and remote stimuli. This experiment is the sul
ject of this report.
2. Technological Background
Magnetoencephalography is a noninvasive tech
nique used to measure, in three-dimensional space
magnetic fields produced by neuronal electric cur
rents in the cortex of the brain. A magnetoen-
cephalography device (MEG) can determine the
spatial distributions of specific groups of neurons
participating in a given activity and their patterns of
activity over time: This technology has been used in
research ranging from evaluating how normal
brains process information to diagnosing clinical
conditions such as epilepsy and dementias.7
Neurons that participate in a given functional ac-
tivity communicate between themselves and ulti-
mately other parts of the body by a complex
combination of electrical signals and chemical in-
teractions. It is beyond the scope of this report to
describe the cellular physiology involved, but is
sufficient to say that this activity produces mag-
netic fields (predominantly dipole) that can be
sensed externally.
The sensing device of a MEG is a cryogenic super-
conducting quantum
interference
device
(SQUID) coupled with a gradiometer. SQUIDs
currently being used are cooled by liquid helium.
At a few degrees above absolute zero, an electri-
cal current can flow through a superconductor
with no applied voltage. The material of the
SQUID consists of superconducting loops with
two sections of thin insulating material connect-
ing them (Josephson Junctions). This configura-
tion is referred to as a DC SQUID. Some
electrons can tunnel through this insulation. The
* References are at the end of this report.
t To keep the identity of the viewers confidential, we use the pronouns he and his throughout this report, regardless of the view-
er's gender.
# Throughout this report, the word "significant" conforms to the standard definition; p ≤ 0.05.
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presence of a weak magnetic field produces a
phase difference for the wave function of the
magnetic field [and] produces a phase difference
for the wave function of the electrons across this
barrier. The resulting interference pattern pro-
duced by the two different wave functions on each
side of the barrier can be used to indicate the
strength of these extremely weak magnetic fields.
The neuronal magnetic fields from the human
brain are only about 10-13 tesla, while the earth's
magnetic field is 10-4 tesla and normal urban
noise is about 10-7 tesla. Care must be taken,
therefore, to assure that the signal-to-noise ratio
is favorable. This has been taken into considera-
tion by the manufacturer of MEG equipment
(BTi of San Diego, California), who has designed
highly shielded sensors that use a second-order
coupled gradiometer to reduce the environ-
mental noise by about 106. The use of an alumi-
num and p-metal magnetically shielded room can
further reduce the noise by a factor of 103. If used
together, these two precautionary measures can
reduce the ambient noise by a factor of about
109 -equivalent to the internal SQUID noise.
Because a MEG responds best to neuronal cur-
rents that are parallel to the skull (i.e., currents
producing magnetic fields oriented tangentially to
the skull), neuronal currents perpendicular to the
skull may be missed. In reality, however, few
neuronal electrical currents are exactly perpen-
dicular to the skull, so some tangential compo-
nent is almost always available to the SQUID.
Searching for a closely packed group of neurons
can be a slow and tedious process. Due to techno-
logical restraints, a maximum of seven sensors can
be used simultaneously to gather MEG measure-
ments. Sensors on a seven-channel MEG are lo-
cated on a 2-cm equilateral triangular grid
forming the center and vertices of a regular hexa-
gon. A subject wears a spandex cap with grid
marks lined up with his nasion, inion, and earlobes
to serve as a head-centered coordinate system. To
identify the location of a neuronal-equivalent
current dipole, many measurements have to be
taken. Isocontour maps of field strength are used
to represent the amplitude and polarity distribu-
tion of the magnetic fields. A least-squares proce-
dure is applied to the observed fields to estimate
the location of neuronal sources and orientation
of the equivalent current dipole.8 The estimated
location of the neuronal source can then be iden-
tified anatomically with a magnetic resonance im-
age scan of the head. Developments in technology
may soon allow for enough channels to cover the
whole head at once, thereby reducing data collec-
tion time and increasing precision.
MEG technology is based on a cryogenic SQUID
operating in liquid helium. Because the Dewar
flask cannot exceed a 45-degree angle, subjects
must lie prone beneath the apparatus. MEG sen-
sors are not attached to the head. but are lowered
into position over the skull; the subject cannot
move his head during monitoring without disturb-
ing the measurement. For these two reasons,
MEG equipment is not suited for long-term
monitoring of a subject. These problems may be
solved in the near future as new technology. such
as high-temperature SQUIDs, develops.
A response from the MEG is a complex waveform
consisting of a series of negative and positive
peaks or components. Specific components of this
waveform can be correlated with perceptual and
cognitive processes. The most commonly ob-
served response to a visual or auditory stimulus,
for example, is a large component occurring ap-
proximately 100 ms after the onset of the stimu-
lus. One hundred milliseconds appears to be the
average latency period between stimulus and the
first correlated neuronal activation in the brain.8
The earlier EEG technology measures electric
potential, or event-related potentials (ERPs) pro-
duced by the electrical activity of the brain. A
MEG measures the magnetic fields, or event-re:
lated fields (ERFs) produced by the electrical ac-
tivity of specific groups of active neurons in the
cortex. An EEG and a MEG, therefore, reveal
different aspects of the electrical activity of the
brain and are often used as complementary tech-
nologies. In some areas, however, the MEG tech-
nique has definite advantages over the EEG:
(1) ERPs taken from the scalp provide little in-
formation regarding the precise three-
dimensional distribution of the neuronal sites
producing the electrical activity. Brain tissues
of unknown electrical conductivity and thick-
ness, individual variations in skull thickness
and geometry, and proximity to openings in
the skull all make obtaining such detailed in-
formation difficult. The same is not true
when using a MEG. Neuronal magnetic fields
can travel through brain tissues without being
significantly altered; this property, coupled
with the dipole model, results in high spatial
resolution of the neuronal activity.
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(2) EEG procedures are occasionally costly and
can be invasive: EEG electrodes must be at-
tached directly to the skull or to the brain of
the subject, whereas MEG sensors are ex-
tracranial and are simply lowered into posi-
tion against the skull.
(3) There is much controversy over the appropri-
ate reference electrode in EEG work (a ref-
erende electrode is required with electric
potential measurements, because only differ-
ences in electric potential are measured).
There is no such problem with a MEG, be-
cause the measurement of magnetic fields is
absolute.
Il METHODS OF APPROACH
Our goal was to conduct a conceptual replication
of the earlier SRI/Langley Porter experiments.
Our basic hypothesis is that a viewer's CNS would
respond to a remote light stimulus.
1. General Description
Using a seven-sensor MEG in a shielded room,
we investigated the occipital-cortex neuronal
magnetic activity that might occur in response to a
remote "visual" stimulus.
The following definitions may be helpful:
· Viewer-An individual who attempts extrasen-
sorimotor communication with the environ-
ment (e.g., the perception of remote stimuli).
· Direct Stimuli (DS)-Visual stimuli occurring
within the normal visual sensory channels.
· Sender-An individual who, while receiving di-
rect stimuli, acts as a putative transmitter to a
remote individual (i.e., viewer) who is attempt-
ing to receive the same information via ex-
trasensorimotor communication.
· Remote Stimuli (RS)- Visual stimuli occurring
outside the normal range of known sensory
channels.
· Pseudo Stimuli (PS)-A time marker in the
data stream with no associated stimuli.
In this report, a direct stimulus to the sender is
also considered as a remote stimulus to the view-
er.
2. Protocol
2.1 General Considerations
To begin a session, a sender is isolated in a room
while a viewer is monitored by a MEG in a
shielded room about 40 m away. Only the sender
is presented with a number of direct visual stimuli
at random intervals within a 120-second period,
the length of one run. One session usually consists
of 10 runs.
2.1.1 Viewers
Eight viewers were selected for this experiment.
Four were known to be good remote viewers, and
four were staff members with unknown viewing
ability. Each viewer contributed a minimum of
one and a maximum of three independent ses-
sions.
2.1.2 Senders
The senders in all sessions were either various
staff members who were well known to the view-
ers or they were spouses.
2.1.3 Dependent Variable
The dependent variable is the root-mean-square
(RMS) phase shift of the primary alpha activity as
a result averaged over all RS.
2.2 Specific Protocol Details
2.2.1 Stimull
Remote stimuli consisted of a standard video en-
coded blank screen with a 5-cm square, linear,
vertical, sinusoidal grating lasting about 100 ms.
These stimuli (DS to the sender) subtended 2 de-
grees in the lower left visual field of the sender.
This was maintained by asking the sender to focus
his visual attention on a permanent mark on the
monitor. During the experiments described in
this report, no attempt was made to monitor the
sender in any way. Pseudo stimuli consisted of the
blank screen without the superimposed grating,
and were included as a putative within-run con-
trol.
2.2.2 Run Timing
Figure 1 shows a schematic timing diagram for
one run. No two stimuli of any type were allowed
to occur within a 3-second period of each other.
A stimulus may occur, however, any time within a
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4.5-second window thereafter. The sender was
presented with a minimum of 9 and a maximum of
15 DS occurring at random intervals within a
120-second period. In all but the first session, a
random number of pseudo stimuli (i.e., random
time markers with no concomitant stimuli-PS)
were added as a within-run control. A viewer was
never presented with direct stimuli except in lo-
cating the maximal response to the visual areas
(see Section II.2.2.4).
Pseudo Stimuli
-
0
Remote Stimuli
120 sec
Figure 1 Schematic Timing Protocol-Single
Run
2.2.3 Instructions to Viewers
In all sessions, the viewers were completely in-
formed about the details of the experiments.
Prior to their placement on the MEG table, they
were shown the location of the RS display moni-
tor, and were instructed to place their attention
upon it or the sender during the session.
For some sessions, the viewer was instructed to
press a fiber-optic-coupled button when he felt
that he perceived stimuli. Each button press was
marked in the data record. Button pressing was
retained in this protocol as part of the conceptual
replication.
2.2.4 Sensor-array Placement and Callbra-
tion
We selected the location for the sensor array by
optimizing the viewer's response to direct visual
stimuli. Inherent in this choice is an assumption
that may not be valid: namely, that neurons par-
ticipating in a reaction to RS are the same as those
that respond to DS. The sensor locations were
then marked on an acetate transparency to allow
for accurate repositioning of the sensors in later
sessions. One such placement (right occipital-
minus centimeters from the inion indicate the
right hemisphere) is shown for viewer 002 in Fig-
ure 2. It should be noted that MEG sensor place-
ments do not necessarily correspond to
conventional EEG electrode placement.
For a calibration, the viewer was fitted with a
spandex cap with grid marks aligned with his in-
ion, nasion, and earlobes (i.e, head-centered co-
ordinate system). The viewer was then placed as
comfortably as possible on an observation table
beneath the MEG. He must lie face down and
look though a hole in the table to view the DS via a
system of mirrors. These stimuli were displayed by
a projector located outside the entrance to the
shielded room. The sensors of the MEG were
lowered from above to touch his head over the
right occipital lobe. In this configuration, the sen-
sor array was moved at the end of 30 DS to a posi-
tion that optimized his response to the DS. Once
found, the array position was marked on the cap
for subsequent repositioning.
4
6
5
3
2
İ
4
1
2
Distance
(cm)
0
3
-1
-2
-1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10
Distance (cm)
Figure 2 Sensor Position Relative to the Inion
(0,0) for Viewer 002
2.2.5 Sequence of Events for a Session
The following is the schedule of events for a ses-
sion:
. Collect approximately 10 minutes of back-
ground data with no viewer or sender present
and the MEG in full operation.
· Isolate the sender with the stimulus display de-
vice.
. With the viewer on the table, position the sen-
sor array at the calibration point.
· At time = 0, start the monitoring of data with
computer-generated trigger. Data are col-
lected the entire 120 seconds at a rate of 200
samples per second.
· At time < 120 seconds, present 9 to 15 remote
and 9 to 15 PS to the sender.
· At time > 120 seconds, allow the viewer to re-
lax for about 2 to 5 minutes without leaving the
table. This break generally consists of the send-
er entering the shielded room to engage the
viewer in conversation.
. Collect nine additional runs with the same pro-
cedure while the viewer remains positioned on
the table under the MEG.
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3. Data Analyses
If our initial assumption about sensor positioning
is true, and if the earlier results are replicated, we
expect to see a change in alpha production as a re-
sult of the RS. We might also expect an evoked re-
sponse similar to visual ERFs. Figure 3 is an
idealized illustration of these expected results in
the time-series data. Times less than zero are
prestimulus; times greater than zero are poststi-
mulus. The stimulus lasts 100 ms.
Evoked Response
Decreased
Alpha
Amplitude
1000
07
-1000
-500
0
500
Time (ms)
Figure 3
Idealized Results for a Single
Stimulus
For each session, the following was computed for
each RS and PS, respectively:
(1) Five hundred ms of pre- and post-stimulus
time-series data were separately detrended
and filtered (40 Hz lowpass).
(2) The power spectrum was computed for each
500-ms pre- and post-stimulus period.
(3) The relative phase change of the dominant
alpha frequency from pre- to post-stimulus
period was computed as the arctangent of the
ratio of the imaginary and real component of
the transfer function. The transfer function
is defined as the ratio of the FFT of the post-
stimulus period divided by the FFT of the
pre-stimulus period.
(4) One thousand ms of time-series data (i.e.,
500 ms pre- and post-stimulus) was sepa-
rately detrended and filtered (40 Hz lowpass).
In addition, the following averages were com-
puted across all RS and PS, respectively:
(5) The average power pre- and post-stimulus.
(6) The root-mean-square (RMS) average
phase shift.
(7) The 1000-ms time average of the pre- and
post-stimulus periods taken as a single re-
cord.
(8) The "power spectra" of the pre- and post-
stimulus time averages were computed. (We
recognize that a power spectrum of a time av-
erage is not an accurate representation of the
average power spectrum, however it is an in-
dicator of phase shift.)
4. Monte Carlo Calculations
The analysis of CNS activity has always been prob-
lematic, because alpha bursts lasting from 0.1 to a
few seconds occur at random intervals. From a
statistical point of view, the data fail to satisfy at
least two underlying assumptions of the usual sta-
tistical methods (e.g., ANOVA and MANOVA).
Most standard statistical tests assume that all
samples of the data are independent. MANOVA
can be configured to remove this particular as-
sumption, nonetheless, it and the other tests as-
sume that the process under study is stationary;
that is, whatever the statistical properties are,
they remain constant over time. In other words,
the measured properties should not depend upon
when the activity is sampled. CNS time series data
do not satisfy either of these assumptions.
To avoid these difficulties, and to obtain probabil-
ity estimates of the observed RMS phase shifts,
we adopted a simple Monte Carlo approach. In
the usual statistical analysis, the phase shift is
compared to an ideal distribution, or its likelihood
of occurrence is computed using some nonpara-
metric technique. Both techniques attempt to de-
termine the degree to which the observed phase
shift is exceptional, given the universal set of all
possible data. The Monte Carlo method that we
used, however, can only determine the degree to
which the observed phase shift is exceptional,
given the available data sample. Thus, a new
Monte Carlo estimate must be computed for each
individual data set.
The general Monte Carlo procedure is as follows:
(1) Using the same timing algorithm to create
the original RS, generate N sets of M stimuli,
where M is the number of original RS.
(2) For each pass
(1 ... N), compute the RMS
phase shift averaged over M remote stimuli.
(3) Sort the resulting N values to form the RMS
phase shift distribution in the given data sam-
ple.
(4) Compute the probability that the observed
value would be as large (or larger), given a re-
peated random sample of the data. Note that
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this p-value is not the probability that the
measure is as large, given a different data
sample.
We have used this technique to compute p-values
for the RMS phase shifts throughout this report.
III
RESULTS
Eight viewers (002, 007, 009, 372, 374, 389, 454,
and 531) from SRI International participated in
the effort. Viewers 002, 009, 372, and 389 were ex-
perienced, with strong track records. Viewers
007, 374, and 531, had not previously participated
in remote viewing experiments. Viewer 454 had
participated in novice remote viewing training
and has produced significant evidence of remote
viewing ability.
1. Calculations
To illustrate the reduction of the raw data, we use
the 25 September 1988 session from viewer 002.
Figure 4 shows the time average over all RS of the
amplitude (femto Tesla) of the magnetic CNS ac-
tivity of viewer 002's response to RS. The data
from all seven sensors are displayed in a pattern
that is similar to the physical sensor array. Each
sensor is labeled in a highlighted box. The number
of stimuli comprising the average (118) is shown in
the key. The onset of the 100-ms stimulus is rep-
resented at time = 0, so negative time represents
the pre-stimulus period and positive time repre-
sents the post-stimulus period. The total time pe-
riod shown is 1 second. Because the stimuli are at
random times relative to any uncorrelated CNS
activity, averaging has reduced random single-sti-
mulus amplitudes by Vn where n is the number of
stimuli. Sensor 7 shows a clear change from a
slow, regular alpha rhythm during the pre-stimu-
lus period, to one of higher frequency. post-
stimulus.
Figure 5 shows this change of alpha in the fre-
quency domain. For each sensor, the power spec-
trum of its corresponding time series is displayed
from 0 to 40 Hz. The power spectra are shown in-
dependently for the pre- and post-stimulus peri-
ods (separated by a dashed vertical line). Sensor 7
shows a strong 10-Hz peak pre-stimulus that van-
ishes post-stimulus Similar alpha reductions can
be seen in all of the other six sensors.
The power spectrum of a time series average is not
an indicator of the average power spectrum of the
CNS activity, because time averages are phase
sensitive and power spectra are not. Figure 6 illus-
trates this by showing the average power spectra
(i.e., calculated on a stimulus-by-stimulus basis
and then averaged) for the pre- and post-stimu-
lus periods. There was little change of CNS
power across the stimulus boundary throughout
the frequency range.
Because a time average is sensitive to relative
phase and a power spectrum is not, these data sug-
gest that a relative phase shift occurs between
pre- and post-stimulus periods. Figure 7 shows
this relative RMS phase shift computed from 0 to
40 Hz for all sensors. As was the case for the time-
series data, the RMS average was computed over
n = 118 RS. In accordance with the protocol (Sec-
tion II.3), the dependent variable was the RMS
phase only at the dominant @-frequency.
At this point we are unable to determine if the
variations seen in Figures 4 through 7 are mean-
ingful. Toward that end, the identical quantities
for the PS are shown in Figures 8 through 11. The
"power" of the time averages for the remote stim-
uli differ markedly from those of the PS spectra
(Figures 5 and 9).
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Remote Stimuli
118
150
-
75
Apllitude (IT)
0
-75
-150
-600
-300
0
300
600
Time (ms)
Figure 4 Viewer 2: Date 8/25/88: Session 1: Time Average
Remote Stimuli
118
9.01
Power ([T2) x 102
4.5
0.0
G
6
V
0 10 20 30 40
Frequency (1Iz)
Figure 5 Viewer 2: Date 8/25/88: Session 1: Power of Time Average
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12
Remote Stimuli
118
6
Power (fT2) x 104
3
0
0 10 20 30 40
Frequency (Hz)
Figure 6 Viewer 2: Date 8/25/88: Session 1: Average Power
:
2
3
Remote Stimuli
118
200
4
RMS Phase (deg)
150
100
50
1
6
0
10
20
30
40
Frequency (Hz)
Figure 7 Viewer 2: Date 8/25/88: Session 1: RMS Phase
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Pseudo Stimuli
74
150
Amplitude (IT)
757
0
-7.5+
-1501
16
-600
-300
0
300
600
Time (ms)
Figure 8 Viewer 2: Date 8/25/88: Session 1: Time Average
13
Pseudo Stimuli
74
1.0T
4
Power ((T2) x 102
0.5
0.0 7
6
0 10 20 30 40
Frequency (Hz)
Figure 9 Viewer 2: Date 8/25/88: Session 1: Power of Time Average
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Pseudo Stimuli
74
6
-
Power ([T2) x 104
3
0
6
0 10 20 30 40
Frequency (Hz)
Figure 10 Viewer 2: Date 8/25/88: Session 1: Average Power
3
Pseudo Stimuli
74
-
200
4
RMS Phase (deg)
150
100
50
0
10
20
30
40
Frequency (Hz)
Figure 11 Viewer 2: Date 8/25/88: Session 1: RMS Phase
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2. Monte Carlo Estimates of
Significance
To determine if the changes that are seen qualita-
tively are exceptional, we analyzed the data by the
Monte Carlo procedure outlined in Section II.4.
We simulated the RS by generating 500 sets of
Monte Carlo stimuli using the same random tim-
ing algorithm and number as in the original data.
For each set, the RMS phase was calculated as de-
scribed in Section II.3. The resulting 500 Monte
Carlo RMS phases were sorted as a descending
array, and the fraction of phases equal to or larger
than the observed RS value was represented as a
p-value. (The p-value is bounded on the low end
by 1/500.) Figure 12 shows a histogram of one such
Monte Carlo run, again using the data from
viewer 002 as an example. The values of the RMS
phase for the remote and pseudo stimuli are
marked by vertical lines (see the key in Figure 12).
In accordance with the earlier study6 in which we
observed changes in alpha power, we established
a single criterion for the selection of a sensor for
analysis: the pre-stimulus average alpha power
above background is larger than it is in any other
sensor. Table 1 shows the viewer identification,
date, sensor chosen for analysis, and the p-value
(as defined above) for the RMS phase shift for the
remote and pseudo stimuli, respectively.
The p-values shown in Table 1 are all single tailed
(i.e., the area in the upper tail). Because the distri-
bution of means is approximately normal, we have
converted the empirical p-values to their respec-
tive two-tailed z-scores. If the p-value was less
than 0.5, the z-score shown in Table 1 was com-
puted from the inverse normal distribution as-
suming a p-value twice the one shown. If the
p-value was more than 0.5, we subtracted it from
1.0, doubled the result, and computed the z-score
as above. To test the null hypothesis that the com-
bined RS phase shifts are characteristic of the
data, we computed a standard Stouffer's Z (Z;)for
the 11 sessions shown in Table 1. There is statisti-
cal evidence that the data within ± 0.5 seconds of
the R$ are not characteristic of the data at large
(Zs = 1.99, p ≤ 0.024, effect size = 0.599). Simi-
larly, the combined statistic for the PS indicates
that these data are also not characteristic (Z, =
2.92, p < 0.002, effect size = 0.924). Therefore,
there appears to be some statistical anomaly asso-
ciated with the RMS phase shifts for both stimuli
types.
0.50
Key
Passes:
500
P-Values
Real:
0.002
Pseudo: 0.846
0.40
0.30|
Density
ITT
0.20
T
T
TT
0.10
TTT
0.00
40
64
88
112
136
160
RMS Phase (deg)
Figure 12 Viewer 2: Date 8/25/88: Session 1: RM$ Phase: Sensor: 2: RS = 118
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Table 1
Results of Monte Carlo Calculation for RMS Phase
I.D.
Date
Sensor
Remote
Pseudo
Remote
Pseudo
009
06/24/88
0.650
-0.524
002
08/25/88
2
0.002
0.848
2.653
0.513
08/26/88
6
0.904
0.966
.0.871
1.491
372
10/19/88
7
0.094
0.168
0.885
0.423
374
03/29/89
6
0.154
0.810
0.501
0.305
007
03/29/89
7
0.970
0.180
1.555
0.358
389
05/23/89
4
0.288
0.040
-0.191
1.405
05/24/89
5
0.260
0.016
-0.050
1.852
05/25/89
4
0.120
0.922
0.706
1.011
531
05/24/89
4
0.814
0.134
0.274
0.619
454
05/25/89
4
0.732
0.052
-0.090
1.259
3. Results: Button Presses
In the early SRI study6, significant changes in al-
pha production were observed in response to an
RS. The statistical evidence, however, did not in-
dicate that the viewer was able to recognize an RS
cognitively (i.e., the viewer's button presses rela-
tive to the RS did not exceed mean chance expec-
tation).
In the current experiment, viewers 002, 009, and
372 were asked to press a button whenever they
"perceived" an RS. The total number of stimuli
during a session of 10 runs was not known in ad-
vance because of the randomization procedure.
The null hypothesis is that the probability of a
time interval having a stimulus is the same for
those intervals with a button press as for those
without a button press. In other words, the pres-
ence or absence of a stimulus is independent of
the presence or absence of a button press. We
tested this null hypothesis to determine if a viewer
is cognitively aware of the RS.
In Table 2, the fractional hitting rate is pi
A/(A+ B), and the fractional missing rate is p2 =
C/(C+D). The total number of 1-second inter-
vals is N = (A+B+C+D), and the total stimulus
rate is po = (A+ C)/N.
Table 2
Data Schema for Interval Conditions
Stimulus
Yes
No
Response
Yes
A
B
No
C
D
Then, under the null hypothesis, the following
statistic is approximately normally distributed
with a mean of 0 and a variance of 1:
(P1-F2)
2 = -
po ( 1 - po) ( - ) + (C+D)
2
Table 3 shows N, Po. P1, P2, z, p-value, and the effect
size, r, for the three sessions for which button-
press data were collected. As in the earlier SRI
study, there is no indication that the viewers were
cognitively aware of the RS.
Table 3
Button Pressing Results
Viewer.
N
Po
P1
P2
Z
p
I
002
1210
0.167
0.198
0.164
0.951
0.163
0.027
009
1280
0.091
0.068
0.094
-0.978
0.836
-0.027
372
1089
0.157
0.119
0.160
-0.996
0.840
-0.030
.
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P-Value (1-tail)
Z-Score (2-tail)

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IV DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS
We have found statistical evidence that the rela-
tive phase shift from -0.5 to 0.5 seconds of an RS
are not characteristic of the data at large (Z, =
1.99, p < 0.024, effect size = 0.599). The com-
bined statistic for the PS indicates that the relative
phase shift from -0.5 to 0.5 seconds of a PS are
also not characteristic of the data at large (Zs =
2.92, p < 0.002, effect size = 0.924). Averaged
across all viewers, the magnitude of the results, as
indicated by their effect sizes of 0.599 and 0.924,
respectively, is considered robust by accepted be-
havioral criteria defined by Cohen.9
1. Root-Mean-Square Phase
Searching for a change of phase as a result of an
RS is a natural extension of results quoted in the
literature. For example, Rebert and Turners re-
port an example of photic driving (i.e., an extreme
example of phase locking) at 16 Hz. In their work,
a subject was exposed to a 16-Hz visual DS ran-
domly balanced with no stimulus during 4-second
epochs. The average power spectra showed ap-
proximately 10-Hz alpha activity during the no-
light epochs, and a strong 16-Hz and no 10-Hz
peak during the 16-Hz epochs.
One interpretation of their result is that the alpha
rhythm was blocked, and the CNS "locked" on to
the flashing stimulus. Eason, Oden, White and
White, 10 report a phase-shift phenomenon when
a rare stimulus, which is random relative to the in-
ternal alpha activity, is presented as a DS:
" ... when a stimulus flash is presented, the
resulting primary evoked response acts as a trigger
stimulus which temporarily synchronized a
certain percentage of the neural elements
normally under the influence of an internal
pacemaker. ... Desynchronization of the elements
participating in the evoked response would occur
as the elements are brought back under the
influence of an internal pacemaker or are affected
by neurons not involved in the response."
In other words, the internal alpha is momentarily
interrupted by an external stimulus, and, in the
absence of continuing external stimuli, returns
back to its original frequency, but at a random
phase relative to its pre-stimulus state.
To understand what would be expected in our ex-
periment for the distribution of RMS phases dur-
ing the Monte Carlo simulations, we examine a
hypothetical case. Suppose that the viewer's alpha
activity was a continuous wave at a single fre-
quency. A phase change is computed between 500
ms before and 500 ms after each Monte Carlo
"stimulus." Therefore, regardless of the entry
point, the relative phase change would be zero,
and the RMS phase over many such "stimuli"
would also be zero.
Real alpha activity, however, is not continuous,
Rather, it appears in bursts lasting from 100 to
5000 ms. Random Monte Carlo "stimuli" would
sometimes occur within such bursts and some-
times near the edges. Thus, we would expect a
nonzero RMS phase over many such "stimuli,"
but the individual relative phases would not be
uniformly distributed. Depending upon the view-
ers' alpha characteristics, the distributions would
be enhanced near zero RMS phase.
If we assume that Eason, et al., are correct, and
that a phase shift is expected as a result of an RS,
then the expected distribution of RMS phases is
uniformly distributed on [-TT, T]. In this case, the
phase change is related to the relative timing be-
tween the external stimulus and the internal al-
pha-a completely random relationship. Thus,
the variance of the RMS phases in the experimen-
tal condition should be larger than those com-
puted during the Monte Carlo runs. Figure 13 is a
schematic representation of these models.
Continuous Alpha
Remote Stimulus
Monte Carlo
-TT
d
TT
Phase (radians)
Figure 13 Idealized Distributions for Relative
Phase Shifts
· Values of 0.1, 0.3, and 0.5 correspond to small, medium, and large effects, respectively.
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As a first step in testing these models, we com-
puted the expected variance for the RMS phase,
given that the individual phases are uniformly dis-
tributed on [™, TT]. Using a Taylor Series expan-
sion for RMS phase, the variance is given by:11*
02 = 45 72
n
1 -
1
30n
(rad2) , or
where n is the number of individual phases.
Table 4 shows the viewer identification, the two-
tailed z-score from Table 1, the number of RS, the
theoretical variance for the RMS phase, the ob-
served variance from the Monte Carlo runs of 500
passes each, and the X2 and its associated p-value
for a variance-ratio test.
Combining the X2 across all 11 sessions gives an
overall significant result (X2 - 5121.5, df = 5489.
p ≤ 0.0002). This indicates that the Monte-
Carlo-derived variances are significantly smaller
than the theoretical variances based on uniformly
distributed phases. The two viewers who demon-
strated the largest z-scores (002 and 007) also
show sharply reduced Monte Carlo variances.
Table 4
Comparison Between Monte Carlo Phases and Theory
I.D.
Z-Score
(RS)
Number of
RS
Theoretical
Observed
x2
df = 499
P-Value
009
-0.524
96
22.50
25.46
564.6
0.978
002
2.653
118
18.31
13.63
371.5
4.9x10-6
0.871
76
28.42
24.43
428.1
0.010
372
0.885
90
24.00
23.25
483.4
0.316
374
0.501
102
21.18
18.64
439.2
0.025
007
1.555
93
23.23
18.66
400.8
4.6×10-
389
-0.191
97
22.27
23.35
523.2
0.780
-0.050
92
23.48
22.29
473/7
0.214
0.706
98
22.04
20.22
457.8
0.093
531
0.274
101
21.39
21.05
491.1
0.408
454
-0.090
52
41.54
40.48
487.3
0.363
We must conclude that a uniform distribution for
the phase is not a good assumption. To determine
what the phase distribution was for the RS, we
constructed histograms from the raw data.
Figure 14 shows the distribution of phases for the
RS and Monte Carlo stimuli for viewer 002.
While the RS distribution is enhanced near ±180
degrees and suppressed near 0 degrees compared
to the Monte Carlo distribution, the differences
are small (X2 = 10.62, df = 8, p < 0.224) and,
therefore, the random-phase model does not ap-
pear to be a good fit to the data for viewer 002 on
his 25 September session.
Figure 15 shows the same distributions for viewer
007. In this case, the RS distribution is nearly uni-
form on [-180,180] degrees, but it differs only
slightly from the Monte Carlo distribution
(×2 = 9.47, df = 8, p ≤ 0.304).
From the data shown in Table 4, we see that the X2
indicates significant overall differences between
the theoretical and observed phase distributions.
However, Figures 14 and 15 show that the differ-
ences between RS and Monte Carlo distributions
are small. It is most probable, therefore, that the
RS coupling to the CNS is weak, in general, and
that the position of the sensor array is not neces-
sarily optimized to sense the phase changes.
2. Viewer Dependencies
Viewers 002, 009, and 372 have produced consis-
tent remote viewing results for many years-since
1972 for viewers 002 and 009, and since 1979 for
viewer 372. Viewer 389 is a recent addition, and
has produced examples of excellent remote view-
ing in the only experiment in which he has partici-
pated; however, he has produced significant
results in another laboratory. Whereas viewer 002
. We thank Professor Jessica M. Ults, Statistics Department, University of California, Davis, California, for suggesting this
approach.
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produced the largest z-score (Z, = 2.653), viewer
009 produced the smallest (Z) = - 0.524). The
combined effect size for the experienced viewers
is 0.621, and is 0.559 for the inexperienced view-
ers. The difference is not significant.
There are two considerations that prevent draw-
ing conclusions about the viewer dependence of
the data. The number of independent samples is
small, but the most compelling argument against
drawing conclusions is that placement of the sen-
sor array is a seriously confounding factor. As
stated in Section II.2, we positioned the array in a
location that maximized the response to a DS.
This may not be the appropriate positioning for
everyone. Indeed, it might not be optimal for any-
one.
To determine if there were any "obvious" spatial
dependencies that might indicate a more optimal
array placement, we computed a complete set (all
sensors) of Monte Carlo distributions for one ses-
sion for viewer 002. Figure 16 shows the single-
tailed p-values for the RMS phases for the RS
and PS. They are displayed in the standard sen-
sor-array configuration. The pattern for the RS
suggests that a more optimal positioning of the ar-
ray would be in the sensor 2-7 direction as indi-
cated by an arrow in Figure 16.
30
Remote Stimuli
25
Monte Carlo Stimuli
20
Density
15
10
5
0
-160-120-80 -40 0 40 80 120 160
Relative Phase Shift (deg)
Figure 14 Phase Distributions for Viewer 002:
8/25/88
30
Remote Stimuli
25
Monte Carlo Stimuli
20
Density
15
10
5
0
-160-120-80 -40 0 40 80 120 160
Relative Phase Shift (deg)
Figure 15 Phase Distributions for Viewer 007:
3/29/89
Remote Stimuli
Pseudo Stimuli
0.002
0.126
0.848
0.710
0.036
0.128
0.184
0.924
0.854
0.668
6
5
6
5
0.572
0.238
0.684
0.700
1
Figure 16 Phase p-values for Viewer 002: 8/25/88
3. Pseudo Stimuli
It was initially thought that the PS would act as a
within-run control. The results indicate, how-
ever, that there was, on the average, a larger re-
sponse to the PS than to the RS. While the
difference was not significant, it is important to
note that both of the responses are considered
statistically robust (effect sizes of 0.599 and 0.924
for the RS and PS, respectively). A number of
viewers' responses appear to produce phases on
opposite sides of the Monte Carlo distributions
(e.g., viewers 002 and 007), but there is no overall
correlation between the RS and PS p-values.
A brief description of the hardware and software
that is responsible for stimulus generation may
help in understanding this outcome. The stimuli
and their timing are imitated by an HP computer,
but are controlled by an IBM PC. Each stimulus
type has its own frame buffer within the PC. Our
RS consists of a pattern of 1s and Os that represent
a sinusoidal grating in the center of an otherwise
blank field. The PS pattern, a blank field that con-
sists of all Os, resides in a separate buffer. An in-
terface board between the PC and a standard
video monitor has its own internal frame buffer,
which is automatically and continuously scanned
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at 30 Hz to provide a standard interleaved vidco
signal. See Figure 17.
When the HP computer signals the PC to provide
the appropriate stimulus, the following sequence
of events are followed (see Figure 17):
(1) Phase locked to 60 Hz, the interface frame
buffer is loaded with a copy of the appropriate
stimulus frame buffer (either RS or PS).
(2) The interface board automatically sends this
pattern interleaved at 30-Hz.
(3) After a preset time, approximately 100-ms in
our experiment, the PC resets the interface
frame buffer to zero (blank screen), and waits
until another stimulus signal is received.
At the video monitor, the PS are indistinguishable
from the between-stimuli blank screens. At the
PC, however, the PS are distinguishable from the
blank screen background, because the PC must
copy a frame buffer (albeit all Os) into the output
frame buffer.
In our experiment, the RS and PS results were
statistically identical, and independently, both
were significantly different from the Monte Carlo
distributions. This raises the question as to what
constitutes the target stimulus. Our result is un-
expected given the target was considered to be
what was displayed on the remote monitor.
Main HP
IBM PC
Monitor
Stimulus
Type RS/PS
Stimulus Initiation
RS
Frame
Buffer
30 Hz Inter-
leaved Video
Output
Frame
Buffer
PS Frame
Buffer
Figure 17 Sequence of Events for Stimuli Generation
It is conceivable that the internal activity of the
PC, or its companion computer, was acting as an
unintended target. If this were true, then there
might be an electromagnetic (EM) coupling be-
tween the viewer's CNS and the internal elec-
tronic activity of the computers. It is well known
that computers radiate EM energies at relatively
high frequencies; for frequencies above 100 Hz,
the shielded room is transparent. Analysis of the
background runs (i.e., data collected in the ab-
sence of a sender or viewer) showed no EM cou-
pling into the MEG electronics; therefore, it
remains possible that the statistical effects we
have seen are due to CNS responses to remote
bursts of EM energy.
Let us assume that the overall RS and PS effects
are meaningful. Since the PSs are indistin-
guishable at the monitor from the between-stim-
uli background but are distinguishable at the IBM
PC, then the present experiment demonstrates
that the source of stimuli is the IBM PC.
During the SRI/Langley Porter study in 1977, SRI
developed an entirely battery operated stimulus
generator as a special precaution against the pos-
sibility of system artifacts in the form of EM
pickup. They reported significant CNS responses
to remote stimuli, nonetheless.6 Therefore, it re-
mains possible that we have observed an anoma-
lous information transfer.
Before further research is conducted, it is impor-
tant to measure the EM radiation, and to see if it
is of sufficient strength to be detected (by the ap-
propriate hardware) in the shielded room.
By adjusting the PC program, the PS internal ac-
tivity can be eliminated. It would be interesting to
see if the similarity between the RS and PS results
persists.
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REFERENCES
1. Dean, E. D., International Journal of
Neuropsychiatry, Vol. 2, p 439, 1966.
2. Tart, C. T., International Journal of
Parapsychology, Vol. 5, p 375, 1963.
3. Duane, T. D., and Behrendt, T., Science, Vol.
150, p. 367, 1965.
4. Cavanna, R., Ed., Psi Favorable States of
Consciousness, Parapsychology Foundation,
New York, 1970.
5. Rebert, C. S., and Turner, A., "EEG
Spectrum Analysis Techniques Applied to
the Problem of Psi Phenomena," Physician's
Drug Manual, Vol. 6, Nos. 1-8, pp 82-88,
1974.
6. Targ, R., May, E. C., Puthoff, H. E., Galin,
D., and Ornstein, R., "Sensing of Remote
EM Sources (Physiological Correlates),"
Final Report,
Project . 4540,
SRI
International, Menlo Park, CA, 1977.
7. Sutherling, W. W., Crandall, P. H., Cahan, L.
D., and Barth, D. S., "The Magnetic Field of
Epileptic Spikes Agrees with Intracranial
Localizations in Complex Partial Epilepsy,"
Neurology, Vol. 38, No. 5, pp 778-786, May
1988.
8. Aine, C. J., George, J. S., Medvick, P. A.,
Oakley, M. T., and Flynn, E. R., "Source"
Localization of Components of the
Visual-Evoked Neuromagnetic Response,"
Neuromagnetism Laboratory, Life Sciences
and Physics Divisions, Los Alamos National
Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM.
9. Cohen, J., Statistical Power Analysis for the
Behavioral Sciences (rev. ed.), Academic
Press, New York, 1977.
10. Eason, R. G., Oden, D., White, B. A., and
White, C. T., "Visually Evoked Cortical
Potentials and Reaction Time in Relation to
Site
of
Retinal
Stimulation,"
Electroencephalography
and
Clinical
Neurophysiology, Vol. 22, pp 313-324, 1967.
11. Rice, J. A., Mathematical Statistics and Data
Analysis,
Wadsworth
& Brooks/Cole
Advanced Books & Software, Pacific Grove,
p 143, 1988.
. .
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Electrodermal Correlates of Remote Attention:
Autonomic Reactions to an Unseen Gaze
William Braud, Donna Shafer, and Sperry Andrews
Mind Science Foundation
ABSTRACT
Anecdotal
reports and a small number of prior laboratory studies suggest that
persons
are
able to become aware of being stared at by another person, even in
cases
that
preclude conventional sensory mediation. Previous studies assessed
deliberate, conscious detection of staring by asking subjects to make verbal or
motor
"guesses" whenever
they felt stared at by another, sensorily isolated,
person.
Such
guesses were consistently accurate, but the effects
were
relatively
weak.
We
hypothesized
that stronger effects might be obtained if
"unconscious" autonomic
nervous system activity were used as the
relatively
indicator
of
staring
detection, rather than conscious guessing. We seasoned
that autonomic reactions might be less distorted by higher cognitive processes
and might therefore provide a "purer" and more sensitive indicator. two sets
of sessions were conducted in which sympathetic nervous system activation was
assessed by means of electrodermal monitoring during randomly interspersed
remote staring and nonstaring (control) periods. The monitored subject vas, of
course, unaware of the number, timing, or pattern of these two types of
periods.
The possibility of sensory cueing was eliminated through the use of a
closed-circuit television system for staring.
Sixteen
untrained subjects
evidenced
significant autonomic discrimination, becoming more activated during
staring
than
during
nonstaring periods.
Sixteen subjects who had been
extensively
trained
to become more aware of their interconnections with other
people and less defensive about their connectedness also evidenced significant
autonomic discrimination, but became more calm during staring than during
nonstaring periods.
Unconscious autonomic detection did indeed appear to yield
stronger effects
than
did
previous
conscious verbal (or =otoric) detection
assessments.
-
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INTRODUCTION
Have you ever had the feeling that someone was staring at you from behind and,
upon turning
around,
found you were correct?
From time to time, most of us
have
had
such
a
feeling, which appears
to be
a common part of the human
experience.
The feeling of "being stared at" is treated as a matter of course
in countless novels by Tolstoy, Dostoyevsky, Hugo, Lawrence, Huxley, and many
others.
In
surveys conducted in California (Coover, 1913) as early as 1913,
68-86
percent of respondents reported having had the experience on at least one
occasion, and a more recent Australian survey (Williams, 1983) placed the
figure at 74 percent.
In a
survey
of
San Antonio respondents recently
completed
as part
of
the
present project, the figure was found
to be
approximately 94 percent.
Despite its widespread occurrence and familiarity, the staring experience has
been
subjected to surprisingly
little scientific scrutiny.
Is the presumed
ability to detect an unseen gaze merely a superstition, a cultural myth without
real substance, an over-inflation of coincidental occurrences, a response to
subtle sensory cues, or could the experience have a paranormal component?
In
1898,
Cornell University psychologist E. B. Titchener published a short
article
in Science
in which he
addressed the "feeling of being stared at. "
Titchener
mentioned that he had conducted a series of laboratory experiments on
this
topic and that the experiments had yielded negative results; he reported
no
details whatsoever regarding those experiments.
Titchener indicated that
such
experiments
"have their justification
in the breaking down
of a
superstition
which
has deep and widespread roots in the popular consciousness"
(p.
897).
He
attempted to provide
a psychological
interpretation of the
prevalence
of
the "staring" belief .based on nervousness in social situations, ..
attracting
the
attention
of the starer,
turning, and noticing the starer's
gaze.
In
1912-1913,
experimental
research
on staring detection was carried out by
Stanford psychologist J. Edgar Coover. This was the first project that Coover
undertook in
his post as Fellow of Psychical Research -- a position endowed (at
$50,000
in
1911,
then at $526, 000 in 1918) by Thomas Welton Stanford, younger
brother
of the
founder of the California school.
In a paper published in the
American Journal of Psychology (Coover, 1913), Coover reported the results of a
study in which each of 10 subjects made 100 guesses of whether he or she was
being stared at by an experimenter seated behind the subject in the same room;
the subject
kept
his
or
her eyes closed and "shaded with one hand." The
staring
versus
nonstaring
schedule was determined by tossing a die. The
duration
of
a
staring or nonstaring trial was 15-20 seconds; the 100 trials
were distributed over 3 to 4 hourly sessions that were spaced one week apart.
Overall,
the subjects'
accuracy of guessing did not depart significantly from
chance.
Coover discussed qualitative differences in the subjects' imagery and
subjective
impressions that he
thought
were correlated with the degree of
confidence
or certainty of their guesses, but did not substantiate his
conclusions
with quantitative data. He interpreted his findings as support for
Titchener's
claim
that
the
belief
in
staring detection
was
empirically
groundless.
In
1959, J. J.
Poortman of
Leyden
University (Netherlands)
a
preliminary staring detection study in the Journal of the (British) Society for
Psychical
Research.
Poortman
himself
served
as a
subject
for
89 trials
reported
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(distributed
over
a 13 month period) in which he attempted to guess whether or
not he was
being stared at by another experimenter; the same person served as
experimenter
throughout the tests.
Poortman was seated in a separate room
adjoining
that of
the
starer, with his back to the starer. Staring and
nonstaring
trials
were of 2-5 minutes duration and were randomly scheduled by
means of card shuffles. Portman achieved a 59.55 percent accuracy rate which
he called "suggestive and highly promising" although not significant.
(A re-
analysis of Poortman's data by
the present authors yields a one-tailed p =
.04), Poortman also provided several interesting observations of psychological
conditions
that appeared,
in
his own experience, to facilitate or to impede
accurate staring detection.
In
the
Coover
and
Poortman experiments,
test
were
conditions
poorly
controlled.
The
subject
and
the starer
were
in
the same room or in open
adjoining
rooms
and the subject could have discriminated staring from
nonstaring
periods
by
means
of subtle,
unintentional
auditory cues. This
cueing possibility
was eliminated in two recent studies by Peterson (1978) and
Williams (1983) .
Donald
Peterson conducted
two
preliminary pilot studies and a third formal
experiment
a8
part
of
a
final
year project for his M.A.
degree in the
Psychology Department
44
the University of Edinburgh; these experiments are
pilot
studies
were relatively
informal
and were
still
unpublished.
The
conducted
in
order
to ascertain effective procedures that would later be used
in the
formal
experiment. That formal experiment involved nine starer-staree
pairs of
participants.
The
starer and staree occupied separate, adjacent,
closed
cubicles.
Special
lighting and the use of one-way mirrors permitted
be
visual
access
in one direction only -- i.e., the starer could see but could not
seen by the staree. Isolation was increased further by requiring the staree
to listen to sound-masking white noise through headphones. The staree pressed
a
pushbutton whenever he or she felt "stared at"; the button presses marked a
chart recorder and provided
"time
on
target"
measures.
The staring and
nonstaring periods were scheduled randomly by means of special equipment. The
actual test trials were preceded by brief training periods in which the staree
received feedback in
an
that might be associated
with staring detection. The members of each dyad
attempt to develop an appreciation
of internal cues
reversed
roles during the experiment so that each person had an opportunity to
serve as both starer and staree. There were 36 experimental sessions overall,
each of six minutes duration; each session contained three 30-second staring
periods.
Analysis of results
indicated significantly accurate detection of
staring (p = . 012, two-tailed) .
The experimental
design
was
improved even further by
Linda Williams, who
conducted
her
studies
in
the
Psychology Department
of
the
University of
Adelaide
( South Australia)
as. part of her B. A. honors thesis work. Williams
at
a 1983 conference.
Williams
presented
portions
of
this
still
unpublished
work
(1983) provided excellent sensory isolation of her starers and starees
by stationing them in separate, closed rooms 60 feet apart. Rather than using
a one-way mirror,
the starer watched the subject by means of a closed-circuit
video camera/monitor arrangement.
Twenty-eight starees participated in the
staring detection guesses
by
means
button
study
and indicated their
presses .
Each
staree experienced 52 12-second staring trials and 52 12-second
nonstaring
trials;
the two trial types were scheduled randomly by means of
signalling
tapes created on the basis of random numbers. Conventional measures
accuracy, as well as sensitivity measures (d' ) derived from signal detection
of
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theory, yielded significant results (p = . 04, one-tailed) .
Table 1
Summary of Previous Staring Detection Experiments
Scoring
Effect
Investigator
Affiliation
Design Features
Rate
size
E.B. Titchener (1898)
Cornell University
no data reported
---
J. E. Coover (1913)
Stanford University
same room
50.20%
.004
J. J. Poortman (1959)
Leyden University
adjoining rooms
59.55%
.18
D.M. Peterson (1978)
Edinburgh University
one-way mirrors
54.86%
.42
L. Williams (1983)
Adelaide University
closed-circuit TV
51.31%
.32
Three of the four empirical studies reviewed above yielded suggestive evidence .
that persons are able to consciously discriminate periods of staring from those
of nonstaring, even in the two cases in which the possibility of subtle sensory
cues
was
eliminated.
In fact, an examination of the tabulated results ( see
Table 1) reveals that scoring actually improved as test conditions were made
more stringent, especially
success is measured in terms of effect size
(defined
as z-score or equivalent z-score divided by the square root of the
number of contributing score units; see Rosenthal, 1984).
The effect, however,
although consistent, was not particularly striking.
A
plausible reason for this is that the testing method used in these studies was
not the most
appropriate one.
The laboratory experiments were designed to
encourage deliberate conscious guessing in order to identify staring periods.
Such a procedure would be expected to maximize possible cognitive interferences
and distortions of subtle internal staring-related cues; it would be difficult
or
impossible for the staree to avoid the use of guessing strategies, response
biases,
intellectual analysis and interpretation, etc. In the everyday life
context, on
the other
hand,
staring
detection frequently takes the form of
spontaneous unconscious behavioral and bodily changes. Often, such changes are
reported to be rich in physiological content (e.g., tingling of the skin,
prickling of neck hairs)
and
automatic movements (e.g., spontaneous head-
turning,
unplanned glances) .
Higher cognitive functions seem to play minor
roles in these staring detection contexts.
On the basis of these considerations, it was hypothesized that an experimental
design based upon more unconscious autonomic nervous system reactions might be
more sensitive to staring detection than would one based upon conscious motor
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guessing.
Therefore,
we
designed an experiment in which we would be ale 1
monitor
sympathetic autonomic nervous system activity (using electroderma.
recording
techniques)
in the
staree during staring and nonstaring periods tc
determine whether
those periods could be unconsciously differentiated. As i
the Williams
study, separate closed rooms
and a closed circuit televisic
system would be used to eliminate conventional communication channels between
starer
and
staree.
We also sought to compare the autonomic staring detection
ability
of
two groups of subjects. One group
(tested in Phase 1) consisted o
-
untrained subjects.
Another group (tested in Phase 2) consisted of subject
who had undergone special training designed to increase their understanding and
experience of human
interconnectedness
and to help them deal
with their
psychological resistances to feeling interconnected with others.
METHOD
Subjects
Thirty-two subjects participated as starees in
this experiment. The subjects
were unselected (perhaps a better description would be "self-selected" ) persons
from the local community who were interested in our experiments and who had
become aware of the Mind Science Foundation's work through media information.
(local radio, newspaper, and newsletter descriptions) and information from
previous
subjects.
The participants ranged in age from 22 to 71 years; sere
were
24 females and 8 males. The 32 subjects were tested in two phases. Fase
1
involved 16 subjects who were "untrained." Phase 2 involved 16 subjects whe
had been ("self-") selected from the same general subject pool; these subjects,
however,
were
tested following their participation in a "connectechess
training"
program (see below) conducted by the third author (S. A. ). The second
author (D.S. ) played the role of both experimenter and starer throughout the
experiment ;
she, too, participated in the connectedness training following
Phase 1 but before Phase 2.
Apparatus
The experimental
apparatus
consisted
of silver/silver chloride palmar
electrodes, a skin-resistance amplifier, and an analog-to-digital converter
interfaced
with a microcomputer.
This
equipment was identical to that
described
in previous reports (Braud & Schlitz, 1983; Schlitz & Brand, 1985) .
A
closed
circuit television
system was added,
so that the staree could be
viewed by a distant starer
without sensory
queing.
A color video camera
(Hitachi camcorder VM-2250)
was set up on a tripod in the staree's room. che
camera's radio frequency (RF) output was boosted by a 10 dB amplifier then
conveyed via heavy duty 300-ohm impedance twin-lead cable to a 19-inch color TV
monitor (Sony Trinitron KV-1114) situated in the starer's room.
Procedure
The experimenter
; met with the subject in the Foundation's library, where the
subject completed
the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (Form F: see Briggs & Myers,
1957), a 55-item personal history survey (Participant Information Form { PIF] )
developed at the Psychophysical Research Laboratories ( Psychophysical Research
Laboratories,
1983),
and
a
brief staring
questionnaire.
The staring
questionnaire asked whether the subject had ever felt an unseen person staring
at
him
or her and whether such an experience took the form of a physical
sensation or a conscious thought; the questionnaire also asked that the subject
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describe
the experience.
After completing these assessments, the subject was
taken
to the starer's room, shown the television monitor, and informed of the
details of the procedure.
Next, the experimenter led the subject to the staree's room, which was located
in an entirely different suite area across an outside corridor.
The two rooms
were separated
from each other by two inner hallways, an outer corridor, and
four
closed doors. Conventional sensorimotor communication between these two
rooms,
under the conditions of the experiment, was not possible.
The staree's
room
was
brightly
illuminated by means of overhead fluorescent lights. The
camera
was mounted on a tripod six feet away from the subject's chair, at eye
level,
and at
an
angle of approximately 45 degrees left of center (from the
subject's point of view). The camera's zoom lens was set so that the subject's
shoulders, neck, and head would be visible on the monitor in the starer's room.
The subject was
seated in a comfortable recliner chair (which remained in an
upright position
throughout the experiment), and the experimenter attached two
silver/silver
chloride electrodes
(7 mm diameter)
filled with partially
conductive electrode gel to the subject's left palm by means of adhesive
electrode
collars.
The subject was asked to sit quietly for the next 20
minutes, to refrain from unnecessary movements (especially of the left hand and
arm),
and to think about whatever he or she wished during the experiment.
The
subject
was
told that the camera would be on throughout the 20-minute session,
but
that
the
experimenter would watch the monitor only at certain randomly
determined times during the experiment; at those times, the experimenter would
stare intently at the subject's image on the distant monitor and would attempt
to gain the subject's attention. The subject was asked to "keep in the back of
your
mind
gentle wish
that the experiment will be successful. "
The
experimenter then left the subject alone in the staree room and went to the
distant starer's room, closing all doors behind her.
In
the
starer's
room,
the experimenter recorded the subject's basal skin
resistance,
then
retrieved from
a hidden location a sealed, opaque envelope
that
contained
the random staring/nonstaring periods
sequence for
that
session.
Thirty-two such envelopes had been prepared previously by W. B. , who
had used the random algorithm of G W - BASIC to generate the random sequence of
the
10 staring
and
10 nonstaring periods for each session. In a hidden
to him, W.B. kept his own copies of the 32 random
location known . only
The experimenter started the microcomputer program that controlled
sequences.
the
timing of the various events of the experiment and recorded the subject's
electrodermal activity during each of 20 30-second recording periods. Each of
the 20 recording ' periods was signalled by a low-pitched tone (audible only to
the experimenter,
through headphones); a 30-second rest period followed each
recording period.
The experimenter consulted the contents of the session
envelope to learn which of the 20 recording periods were to be devoted to
staring
and
which
were to serve as the nonstaring, control periods.
If the
random
sequence indicated a staring period, the experimenter swiveled her chair
around
80
that it faced the TV monitor; she stared intently at the subject's
monitor image throughout the 30-second recording period. During nonstaring
periods, the `experimenter kept her chair turned away from the monitor, so that
she could not
see the monitor's screen;
she busied her mind with things
unrelated to the experiment.
All
reflective
surfaces had been carefully
covered so that
inadvertent glimpses of the monitor screen were not possible.
The experimenter
did not receive electrodermal feedback of any type during any
phase of the experiment.
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At
the end of the experimental session, the computer printed the electroderma"
results
for each
of
the
20 recording periods.
These scores represented thi
integrated
then
averaged
values
of all spontaneous skin resistance reactione
that occured
during
each
recording period
( see
Braud & Schlitz, 1983, for
details) .
The
experimenter
carefully tore off the paper printout, folded if
without
looking
at
the electrodermal scores,
and filed it away in a specia:
location.
Then,
she went to the staree's room and discussed the experiment
with
the
subject in general terms. Neither experimenter nor subject had any
==
knowledge
of the numerical results for the session. Only after all 32 sessione
had
been
completed did W.B. analyze the results and give the experimentei
feedback.
The experimenter
later
provided feedback to those subjects who
requested it.
The first
16
subjects who participated in Phase 1 of the study had no special
preparation.
The 16 starees of Phase 2, however, had received "preparation" in
the
form
of
participation in "connectedness training" workshops conducted at.
Mind
Science
Foundation by the third author (S. A. ). Workshop participants hac
spent
approximately
20
hours
engaging
in intellectual
and
experiential
exercises
involving
feelings of interconnectedness with other
people
and
dealing with
their
own psychological resistances to merging with others.
The
workshop
began
with
a
group viewing of a videotape based on Peter Russell's
book,
The Global
Brain
(Russell, 1983) . This was followed by discussions of
the
videotape,
lectures
by S. A., and experiential exercises in which
participants became
increasingly
comfortable
and
adept at "connecting" with
each other.
The latter took the form of staring into another person's eyes for
long
periods
of
time,
becoming
comfortable
with
this, observing how one's
physiological
reactions came to more closely resemble those of the other, and
conversing and retrieving information while maintaining eye contact (rather
than averting the gaze upward or sideward, as would usually occur during memory
retrieval and cognitive processing; see Bakan, 1980). Individual and group
discussions
were
devoted to learning about and
dealing with psychological
resistances that
interfered with the process of connectedness or with feelings
of merging with another person. The experimenter/starer for the present study
(D.S. )
actively
participated
in
all workshop
sessions.
All workshop
participants
were
aware that the workshop would be followed by an experiment
involving physiological
detection of staring, but were not aware of any more
details of the study than were the 16 untrained subjects of Phase 1.
In
the present study, we simply explored the possible effects of connectedness
training.
We did not make any predictions about scoring direction in the two
phases, and therefore planned to use two-tailed tests in their evaluations.
It
could be argued that the training may have increased the sensitivity of Phase 2
subjects to whatever effects occurred in Phase 1.
Alternatively, the training
may have resulted in a qualitatively different reaction pattern in Phase 2.
RESULTS
For each of the 32 sessions, a total score was calculated for all 20 recording
periods
(10
staring and 10 nonstaring). This total score was divided into the
sum
of
the
electrodermal
activity scores for the 10 staring (S) periods; the
process
was
repeated for
the 10 nonstaring (N) periods. In the absence of a
remote staring
effect,
these
two
ratios
[ S/ IS
+ N), N/ (S + N)
should
approximate
50
percent.
A
remote staring effect would be indicated by a
significant
departure
of
the scores
from
the 50 percent mean chance.
expectation.
Single-mean tests were used to assess the departure of the ratios
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from
M. C.E.
(50
percent ) .
This iB
equivalent to calculating dependent
(matched) : tests to compare the raw scores for each subject for staring versus
nonstaring periods. We have consistently used ratio scores in our various
projects
as a method of "standardizing" scoring so that scoring magnitude could
be
more
meaningfully compared for the different response systems that we
measure.
First, an analysis was performed on the staring/total activity ratios of the 16
untrained
subjects
of Phase 1.
A single mean t test indicated that the 16
untrained
starees exhibited significantly greater spontaneous electrodermal
activity during
staring periods than during nonstaring, control periods. The
mean percent electrodermal activity for staring periods was 59.38%, rather than
the 50.00% expected by chance. The single mean t test comparing the 16 staring
period percent scores
with
50% M.C.E.
was 2.66 which, with 15 degrees of
freedom,
has an associated two-tailed p = . 018, and a calculated effect size =
.59; the 95% confidence interval is bounded by the values 51.86% and 66.90%.
Thus, these subjects
were significantly activated (in terms of sympathetic
autonomic
activity)
by
remote
staring, compared to the nonstaring, control
periods.
Next, a
parallel analysis was
performed on the scores for the 16 Phase 2
subjects
who had experienced connectednese training prior to their experimental
sessions.
A single mean t test indicated that the 16 trained starees exhibited
significantly less spontaneous electrodermal activity during staring periods
than during nonstaring, control periods.
The mean percent electrodermal
activity
for
staring periods was
45.45%, rather than the 50.00% expected by
with
chance.
The
single mean t test comparing the 16 staring period percent scores
50% M.C.E. was 2.15 which, with 15 degrees of freedom, has an associated
two-tailed
p
= . 048, and a calculated effect size of .50; the 95% confidence
interval
bounded by
the values
40.94% and 49.95%. Thus, these trained
subjects
were significantly calmed ( in terms of sympathetic autonomic activity)
by remote staring, compared to the nonstaring, control periods.
If the scores for the subjects of the two Phases are directly compared by means
of an independent groups t test, a significant difference is found between the
untrained and the trained subjects (t = 3.39, df = 30, p = . 002, two-tailed) .
Secondary
analyses
were
performed
to test the equivalence of the Phase 1 and
Phase
2
subjects
in terms
of their personality (MBTI) and physiological
(electrodermal activity)
characteristics;
a summary of these analyses is
presented in Table
2.
For the MBTI scores, group means are presented for the
continuous
scores
of
the
extraversion/introversion, sensing/intuition,
thinking/feeling,
and judging/perceiving dimensions. A score of 100 represents
the
midpoint of
each continuum.
Scores
less than 100 indicate tendencies
toward
extraversion,
sensing,
thinking
and
judging; scores greater than 100
indicate
tendencies toward
For electrodermal activity scores,
introversion, intuition,
feeling and perceiving.
group means are given for the sum of
spontaneous skin
resistance
responses integrated over all 20 recording epochs
(total SRR) and for the subjects' initial basal skin resistance (BSR) in ohms.
High total
SRR scores
and low BSR
scores are
associated with increased
sympathetic autonomic arousal, whereas low total SSR scores and high BSR scores
are associated with decreased sympathetic arousal. Analyses indicated that the
Phase
1
and Phase 2 , groups did not differ significantly on any of these six
measures.
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Table 2
Group Means and Statistical Comparisons of Personality and
Physiological Characteristics of Phase 1 and Phase 2 Subjects
MBTI Continuous Scores
Electrodermal Activity
E I
S N
TF
J P
Total SRR
BSR
Phase 1 (Untrained)
87.12
123.00
106:75
117.00
605.19
343,506
Phase 2 (Trained)
98.75
133.69
98.06
103.50
656.06
289,047
t
1.49
1.44
1.23
1.52
0.54
0.82
p (2t)
.15
.16
.28
. 14
.60
. 42
We
are
now
able to supplement the findings previously summarized in Table 1
with the results of the present investigation (see Table 3) .
Table 3
Summary of Present Autonomic Staring Detection Experiments
Scoring
Effect
Investigator
Affiliation
Design Features
Rate
Size
Present study (1990)
Mind Science
Foundation
closed circuit TV
autonomic measures
untrained subjects
59.38%
.59
trained subjects
54.55%
.50
A more detailed statistical summary of all relevant
is presented in Table 4. If effect size is taken
staring detection research
to be the most appropriate
measure. of the strength of an obtained outcome, it appears that the autonomic
recording method
of the present study does indeed yield stronger results than
do
the conscious guessing measures
staring
of
detection used in previous
studies.
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Table 4
Statistical Summary of All Staring Detection Experiments
Effect
Study
test
p (1-t)
Z
n
Size
Coover (1913)
z = 0.126
. 4499
0.126
1000
.004
Poortman (1959)
z = 1.70
.044
1.70
89
.18
Peterson (1978)
t = 2.648
.006
2.51
36
.42
Williams (1983)
t = 1.77
.044
1.70
28
.32
Present: untrained subjects
t = 2.66
.009
2.37
16
.59
Present: trained subjects
t =- 2.15
.976
-1.98
16
-. 50
The
statistical values of Table 4 may be used in a preliminary meta-analysis of
all
staring
detection studies reported to date.
The. table
lists the
statistical
test
presented in the original report,
the one-tailed p value
associated
with
that test, the z-score equivalent of that one-tailed p value,
the
number
of
units
contributing to
the
analysis, and the effect size
(calculated
by
dividing
the
equivalent
2
score by
the square root of n) .
Combining all six tabulated entries yields a mean z = 1.07, a Stouffer z = 2.62
(with
associated
one-tailed
p =
.0044), and a mean effect size = . 17. The
Stouffer
z procedure, a preferred method for combining probabilities of several
studies
testing
essentially the same hypothesis,
is described by Rosenthal
(1984) ;
this
source
also
provides an excellent discussion of various effect
size measures.
A
comment is
necessary
regarding
the last entry of Table 4. In the present
research,
we
sought to
determine
whether the subjects would autonomically
discriminate
the staring
from
the nonstaring ( control) periods; indeed, they
were able
to
do this
in both Phases. No prediction was made regarding the
direction
of
their differential
autonomic response, i.e., whether their
electrodermal
activity
would be
greater
or less during staring periods
(compared with
nonstaring periods) .
For this reason, two-tailed tests were
used for
each
Phase, and results for both Phases were "successful." However,
for purposes of meta-analysis, it is customary to use only one-tailed teste and
p-values in the tabulations. It is also customary to use a negative sign for a
result
that
is inconsistent with the bulk of the results (see Rosenthal, 1984,
P.
95).
trained
subjects
( Phase 2)
of
this
study.
This
provides a conservative
estimate
of overall
results,
because the autonomic discrimination of the
trained,
Phase 2 subjects was just as effective as that of the untrained, Phase
-
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have followed
this convention when entering the results for the

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Autonomic Staring Detection
1
subjects,
but
happened to
be
in the
"calm"
as opposed to the "active"
direction.
This "reversal" of direction becomes understandable when considered
in relation
to
the
nature of the training experienced by these subjects ( see
below) .
It
should
also be pointed out that the units of analysis for the effect sizes
reported
in
Table 4 are not comparable for all studies. Effect sizes for the
first
two studies (those of Coover and of Poortman) are based upon trial units,
whereas
those of
the remaining studies are based upon subject units.
These
differences should be borne in mind when evaluating these effect sizes.
DISCUSSION
Prior
research had yielded suggestive evidence that persons were able to
discriminate staring and nonstaring periods by means of deliberate, conscious
guesses.
The aim of the present project was to determine whether staring and
nonstaring
periods could be differentiated by means of more "unconscious"
physiological
reactions.
The
electrodermal
activity differences between
staring and nonstaring periods indicated that such differentiation could indeed
occur.
We
chose to measure
spontaneous
electrodermal
fluctuations (i.e.,
changes
ín
skin resistance reactions) because such measurements are easy to
make,
are sensitive indicators, and are known to be useful peripheral measures
of
the activity of the sympathetic branch of the autonomic nervous system. The
occurrence
of
many
or of high amplitude skin resistance reactions (SRRs) is
symptomatic
of
increased sympathetic activation or arousal, which may in turn
reflect
increased emotionality (see Braud,
1981;
Edelberg, 1972; Prokasy &
Raskin,
1973).
On the other hand, the occurrence of few or of low amplitude
SRRs
indicates decreased sympathetic activation or arousal, which may in turn
reflect decreased emotionality
and,
therefore, a greater degree of emotional
and mental quietude or calmness.
The
results
of
both phases of
this
study indicate reliable autonomic
discrimination of
staring
and nonstaring
periods, and the relatively large
effect sizes suggest that autonomic detection may be a more powerful method
than conscious guessing for the detection of staring effects. Phase 1 findings
suggest that the starees were more activated during the staring than during the
nonstaring epochs.
Phase 2 findings suggest that those starees were more calm
during staring than
during nonstaring periods.
This latter finding does in
fact make
sense
in
view of the training experienced by the Phase 2 subjects.
That training was designed to allow persons to become more comfortable with
staring and with "connecting" with other people, and permitted the trainees to
reduce at least some of their defenses or resistances to staring, being stared
at,
and "merging" with another person. In the course of their training, many
trainees reported that their staring
encounters became quite positive and
pleasant interactions, and they expressed disappointment when the encounters
ended.
We speculate that similar processes may have occurred during remote
staring:
The trained subjects of Phase 2 may have "missed" contact with and the
attention of the starer (with whom they had become increasingly familiar during
the course
of the training), and may have become more relaxed and calm when
that attention
was
provided, albeit in remote form, during the ataring epochs
of
the
experiment.
A useful
analogy for the reader might be the alarm and
distress
that
occur upon the removal of
an imprinted object
from
the
environment of an imprinted precocial fowl or other organiem, and the distress-
reduction that
occurs when the imprinted object is re-introduced ( see Bateson,
1966;
Johnson,
1989;
Peoch,
1988; Ratner
& Denny, 1964). For the Phase 1
.
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starees, who did not have the benefit of the connectedness training, being
stared at (even in its remote form) may have been experienced in a more typical
way,
i.e., as threatening
( see Argyle, 1975) and sympathetically activating
( rather than calming) .
The
above comments apply
not only
to
the starees, but also to the starer.
Although
she attempted to behave identically and maintain identical attitudes
in the
two
phases, when she began Phase 2, the starer (D. S. ) had, of course,
participated actively in the connectedness training and may well have been more
comfortable and relaxed about merging with her subjects in Phase 2 than she had
been.
in
Phase
1.
This
increased comfort and relaxation
could have been
reflected in the "calming" direction of the Phase 2 results.
It
is
possible, of course, that the different patterns of findings for Phase 1
and
Phase
2
are
manifestations of a differential effect contributed by the
experimenter/starer's
experience
of
two
juxtaposed sets of experimental
sessions
( see Rao,
1965,
1985).
Alternatively, it
is
possible that the
different
patterns are contributed by a nonequivalence of characteristics of
the subjects in the two
phases. This latter hypothesis is not a convincing
one, since the subjects for the two phases
came from the same general
participant pool and
characteristics, MBTI
did
not appear to differ importantly in terms of PIF
profiles, or overall electrodermal reactions (either
basal
skin resistance or total electrodermal activity for the session, both of
which reflect general arousal level, nervousness, etc. ). It would appear that
the
participants in the two phases were sufficiently similar in their initial
characteristics
to rule out differences attributable to those factors alone.
The participants' training (that of the starees and of the starer in Phase 2)
appears to have been more critical
in determining the results.
Further
research will clarify these issues.
In addition
to
its relevance to staring detection, the present findings
contribute to our understanding of processes involved in our ongoing series of
"biological
psychokinesis"
(bio-PK) or "remote mental influence" experiments.
In
those
experiments, we have found that "influencers" can produce directional
changes
in
electrodermal
activity and other reactions in spatially distant
living target
systems through the use of intentional and imagery strategies
( see Braud
&
Schlitz, 1989, and Braud, Schlitz & Schmidt, 1989, for summaries
of
these
findings) .
The
findings
of the present
staring-detection study
indicate that the mere focusing of attention or awareness upon a remote living
system
may
perturb
that system in a nontrivial manner, even in the absence of
deliberate
attempts
to influence a specific aspect of the system in a
particular
direction.
Īt
is significant that such attention-mediated effects
can
occur
(as they did in the present research) without the provision of real
time sensory
feedback to
the attention source.
Our
bio-PK experiments,
therefore,
would
appear to include two important components: (a) a specific,
influence (determined by the experiment's protocol), as well as (b)
directional
a
more general, nonspecific effect contributed by the deployment of the
influencer's pure attention
or awareness upon the
target system.
Similar
effects of attention per se have been reported in other experiments with living
systems
(e.g.,
Pleass & Dey,
1985) .
The effects of components (a) and (b)
would, of
course, be expected to be modulated by the predispositions of the
systems
or persons being influenced in these experiments, and the "influencees"
could
provide additional
components
that
could
combine additively
or
multiplicatively with influences (a) and (b) .
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-
It
would
be
great
interest to repeat
the
present
of
experiments using
instrumentation
that
permitted
real-time monitoring
of
brain electrical or
magnetic
activity, instead of or in addition to
the peripheral autonomic
measures used here.
Such
a project, involving five independent, cooperating
brain research laboratories, has been designed by S.A. and is currently being
pursued
as a collaborative research effort. Spatio-temporal topographical maps
of
electroencephalographic
or
magnetoencephalographic
activity,
recorded
simultaneously
in
starer
and staree,
could reveal
subtle and complex
interactions
that
have heretofore evaded detection.
Several suggestive
investigations
of
this type have already been reported (Grinberg-Zylberbaum &
& . Sanchez-Arellano, 1990;
Orme-
Ramos,
1987;
Grinberg-Zylberbaum, Delafor
Johnson,
Dillbeck,
Wallace
Landrith,
1982).
The newly developed brain
electrical
activity mapping
( BEAM)
technology, which employs traditional EEG
scalp electrodes and amplification, but intensive real time computer processing
(fast Fourier transformations and extensive high resolution color topographical
displays) ,
promises to be
the
instrumentation of choice
for such future
investigations.
BEAM technology allows
the display of brain maps that rival
those produced by computerized axial
tomography
(CAT
scans)
or
positron
emission
tomography
(PET scans) ,
but
without the discomfort, invasiveness,
potential risks, or expense of the latter two methods.
The present
finding of a correlation between the attentional processes of one
person
and
the
physiological activity of another, spatially separated, person
(along with
the
findings of numerous "bio-PK" investigations and, indeed, of
the
entire
body of evidence from parapsychology and psychical research) is
consistent
with a conceptualization in which people are viewed as sharing a
special interconnectedness.
Such an interpretation is also consistent with a
view of mind
as unitary and nonlocal (see Dossey, 1989, for the most recent,
and perhaps the single most satisfactory, exposition of this theme) .
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REFERENCES
Argyle, M. (1975) . Bodily Communication.
New York: International
Universities Press. Pp. 229-250.
Bakan, P. (1980). Imagery, raw and cooked: A hemispheric recipe. In J. Short,
G. Sobel, P. Robin & J. Connella (Eds. ), Imagery: Its Many Dimensions and
Applications. New York: Plenum. Pp. 35-53.
Bateson, P. P. G. (1966). The characteristics and context of imprinting.
Biological Review, 41, 177-220.
Braud, W. G. (1981). Psi performance and autonomic nervous system activity.
Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research, 75, 1-35.
Braud, W. G. & Schlitz, M. J. (1983). Psychokinetic influence on electrodermal
activity. Journal of Parapsychology, 47, 95-119.
Braud, W. G. & Schlitz, M. J. (1989). A methodology for the objective study of
transpersonal imagery. Journal of Scientific Exploration, 3, 43-63.
Braud, W. G., Schlitz, M. 'J. & Schmidt, H. (1989). Remote mental influence
of animate and inanimate target systems: A method of comparison and
preliminary findings. Proceedings of Presented Papers: The 32nd Annual
Parapsychological Association Convention, San Diego, CA, pp. 12-25.
Briggs, K. C. & Myers, I. B. (1957) . Myers-Briggs Type Indicator Form F.
Palo Alto, CA: Consulting Psychologists Press.
Coover, J. E. (1913). The feeling of being stared at. American Journal of
Psychology, 24, 57-575.
Dossey, L. (1989). Recovering the Soul: A Scientific and Spiritual Search.
New York: Bantam.
Edelberg, R. (1972). Electrical activity of the skin: Its measurement and uses
in psychophysiology. In N. Greenfield & R. Sternbach ( Eds. ), Handbook of
Psychophysiology. New York: Holt, Rinehart & Winston. Pp. 367-418.
Grinberg-Zylberbaum, J., Dalafor, M. & Sanchez-Arellano, M. E. (1990). The
"transferred" potential in the human brain. International Journal of
Neuroscience, in press.
Grinberg-Zylberbaum, J. & Ramos, J. (1987). Patterns of interhemispheric
correlation during .human communication.
International Journal of
Neuroscience, 36, 41-55.
Johnson, M. H. (1989). Imprinting and anpsi: An attempt to replicate Peoch,
1988. Journal of the Society for Psychical Research, 55, 417-419.
Orme-Johnson, D., Dillbeck, M. C., Wallace, R. K. & Lindrith, G. S. (1982) .
Intersubject EEG coherence: Is consciousness a field?
International
Journal of Neuroscience, 16, 203-209.
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Peoch, R. (1988). Chicken imprinting and the tychoscope: Anpsi experiment.
Journal of the Society for Psychical Research, 55, 1-9.
Peterson, D. M. (1978). Through the looking-glass: An investigation of the
faculty of extra-sensory detection of being stared at. Unpublished M.A.
thesis, University of Edinburgh, Scotland.
Pleass, C. M. & Dey, N. D. (1985). Using the Doppler effect to study
behavioral responses of motile algae to psi stimulus. Proceedings of
Presented Papers, Volume 1: The 28th Annual Parapsychological Association
Convention, Tufts University, Medford, MA, pp. 373-405.
Poortman, J. J. (1959). The feeling of being stared at. Journal of the
Society for Psychical Research, 40, 4-12.
Prokasy, W. F. & Raskin, D. C. (1973). Electrodermal Activity in Psychological
Research. New York: Academic Press.
Psychophysical Research Laboratories (1983). 1983 PRL Annual Report.
Princeton, NJ: Psychophysical Research Laboratories.
Rao, K. R. (1965). The bidirectionality of psi. Journal of Parapsychology,
29, 230-250.
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Unpublished manuscript, Institute for Parapsychology, Durham, NC.
Ratner, S. C. & Denny, M. R. (1964). Comparative Psychology: Research in
Animal Behavior. Homewood, IL: Dorsey Press. Pp. 351-368.
Rosenthal, R. (1984). Meta-analytic Procedures for Social Research.
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Russell, P. (1983). The Global Brain. Los Angeles, CA: J. P. Tarcher.
Schlitz, M. J. & Braud, W. G. (1985) .
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Williams, L. (1983). Minimal cue perception of the regard of others: The
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[ See also Williams, L. The
feeling of being stared at: A parapsychological investigation.
Unpublished manuscript, n.d. ]
Mind Science Foundation
8301 Broadway, Suite 100
San Antonio, Texas 78209
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1
REMOTE VIEWING: FROM WHAT TIME FRAME DOES THE
INFORMATION ORIGINATE?
by
Nevin D. Lantz, Edwin C. May, and Thomas Piantanida
SRI International, Menlo Park, California
ABSTRACT
In order to determine from what time frame remote viewing information originates, we have examined
the role of precognition and feedback on remote viewing quality. We displayed the feedback tachistos-
copically at the end of an otherwise standard remote viewing protocol. The cognitive awareness of the
feedback experience was minimal, and 2 of the 8 intensities used for visual display of the feedback were
below subliminal threshold. We hypothesized a number of possible relationships between feedback in-
tensity and remote viewing quality, including one based on precognition (i.e., the remote viewing data
originated from the future feedback). Four viewers contributed 40 trials each (5 at 8 different intensity
bands). Using a sum-of-ranks statistic, two viewers produced independently significant evidence of re-
mote viewing (p≤3.5 x 10-6, effect size = 0.711, andp ≤ 0.012, effect size = 0.357, respectively). None
of the data showed significant correlation of feedback intensity with remote viewing quality. This result
is discussed with regard to precognition in general and the troublesome unfalsifiablity aspect of truly
goal-oriented precognition.
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I INTRODUCTION
One model of remote viewing , which is based on precognition, is that the data originate from the future
feedback to the viewer. If we are to understand the process of remote viewing, we must examine and
understand the process of precognition. Unfortunately, precognition itself is not understood. For some
experimenters, it is simply a "clean" methodology for conducting frec-response experiments, while oth-
ers have attempted to understand its mechanisms. Our interest was to explore the properties of precog-
nition by examining the relationship between feedback and remote viewing quality.
For the purposes of this paper we have assumed that precognition is real. While there are many exam-
ples in the parapsychological literature, we cite Honorton and Farrari's meta-analysis of the forced-
choice experiments from 1935 to 1987 as convincing evidence for the phenomenon.1 Using 309 studies,
they found overall significance (Z = 11.41, p ≤1.8 x 10-30). In their analysis, they examined a variety of
variables, including file-drawer and quality considerations.
Given that precognition is real, it appears that we have little understanding about its physical process.
One approach to understanding precognition, has been to examine quantum mechanics. De Beauregard
has explored the inherent time symmetries at the microscopic scale and the correlations implied by the
Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen paradox. He found that precognition is consistent with fully relativistic quan-
tum mechanics.2,3 Schmidt has suggested that retro causal interactions (i.e., PK effects propagating
backward in time) is also not inconsistent with quantum theory.4,5
More recently, E. Targ and R. Targ conducted an experiment to explore the structure of precognition.6
Namely, do individuals have access to actualized or probable futures? Their evidence suggests that pre-
cognition is independent of a priori target probabilities. However, in a similar experiment, Radin found
significant evidence contradicting their result.7
In a carefully constructed experiment, Vassy found that a goal-oriented model of precognition did not fit
his cata.8 His result was at least superficially inconsistent with Schmidt's finding that RNG results were
independent of the internal complexity of the hardware.9
One of us (May) has been exploring the nature of precognition and suggests that precognition experi-
ments are relatively easy to construct and nearly impossible to understand. For example, if precognition
is goal-oriented (i.e., individuals can "peek" into the answer book), then process-oriented experiments
are difficult, if not impossible, to interpret. It is always possible to include all the complexity of any given
experiment into a "black box" and consider the final result as the "answer book." Thus the intervening
complexities are simply not apropos.
One obvious problem with this perspective is that goal-oriented precognition is not falsifiable-an unac-
ceptable circumstance in science. For any experiment to be valid, there must be a result. No matter how
Remote Viewing: From What Time Frame Does the Information Originate?
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II METHOD OF APPROACH
1. Conceptual Description
In a typical remote viewing (RV) trial, a viewer and monitor are sequestered in a laboratory. An assistant
randomly selects the target from a pre-defined set (i.e., target pool). At a pre-determined time, the
viewer attempts to describe the target. At the end of the session, the data are secured, and the intended
target is shown to the viewer as feedback. Normally the feedback includes a presentation of the target
and a complete debriefing of the RV experience.
In this experiment, we eliminated all debriefing of the RV experience, and presented the feedback
tachistoscopically. The display intensities varied from zero to a level that just exceeded the visual recog-
nition threshold (i.e., that intensity where the target could be easily seen and described in detail). Ex-
treme care was taken in order to insure that the viewer was the only individual who was simultaneously
aware of both the target and the response.
Figure 1 shows four hypothesized feedback dependencies:
(1) Precognition-The information originates from the future feedback experience.
(2) Real-time-The information originates from the target during the remote viewing.
(3) Mixture-At low feedback intensities, the information originates from the target, but at higher in-
tensities, it originates from the feedback.
(4) Null Hypothesis-No evidence of remote viewing is observed.
High
Real-time and
Precognition
(3)
Precognition
(1)
RV Quality
1
'Real-time
(2)
Low
Null Hypothesis (4)
Subliminal
Threshold
Intensity of Feedback
-
Recognition
Threshold
Figure 1 Idealized Relationships Between RV Quality and Intensity of Feedback
. Assuming, of course, that precognition is not exclusively goal oriented.
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One important implicit assumption must be true before the various hypothetical models shown in Fig-
ure 1 can be valid. Namely, the feedback experience is assumed to be proportional to the cognitive aware-
ness of the visual feedback. Based on this assumption, the amount of information available as feedback
constitutes the independent variable.
2. Detalled Description
2.1 Calibration of the Tachistoscopic Intensities
We assume that the magnitude of the feedback is directly proportional to the duration of the viewer's
exposure for a given level of luminance, or (because of Bloch's Law) proportional to the luminance at a
fixed exposure time." A tachistoscope was loaded with 80 color photographic 35 mm slides (5 opaque and
75 having various luminance contrasts) of natural and man-made scenes (photographs from National
Geographic) randomly chosen from a larger pool of 200.+
Figure 2 shows an ideal relationship between visual detectability and luminance for this experiment. To
lessen the sensitivity to individual differences in perceiving the feedback, we required that the psycho-
metric curve rise rapidly through the 50% detection level. We identified eight levels of feedback intensi-
ty that would be used as the values of the independent variable in the experiment. Two were below
subliminal threshold (i.e., 0.0 detection probability), and one of these was completely opaque. Three
were at 25, 50, and 75 percent detection threshold, respectively, and two were above recognition thresh-
old (i.e., > 100 percent). These points are shown as arrows in Figure 2.
1.00
Detection Probability
0.75-
0.50
0.25
1
0.00
Subliminal
Threshold
Luminance
Figure 2 Ideal Psychometric Function
Visual detection, however, is not related to luminance alone. For a fixed luminance, scenes with differ-
ing contrasts will be detected with differing probabilities. At the same luminance, for example, a photo-
graph of a checkerboard will be casier to detect than a photograph of a mountain cabin in a snow storm.
Thus, each of the candidate target slides had to be calibrated with human observers in order to determine
the empirical relationship between detectability and luminance.
* For presentation times shorter than about 100ms, the product of time and intensity is a constant.10
t The opaque slides were also photographs from the National Geographic magazine, but they were covered with opaque black
tape.
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To accomplish this, we varied the luminance contrast of the slides over an intensity range of 212 by dupli-
cating them at one of 12 f-stops (including 0 luminance).
The 80 target slides were back-projected by a Gerbrands G1170 two-field projection tachistoscope onto a
14-inch-square frosted glass window. The tachistoscope was programmed to present each slide in nu-
merical order for 50 ms, followed by a five-second pause during which the next slide was cycled into posi-
tion. Slides were attenuated by projecting them through a pair of plane polarizers: one fixed and the
other variable. The luminance of the projected image could be adjusted by rotating one of the polarizers.
Two females participated in the calibration." A complete data set was obtained from one, and data trends
were confirmed by the other.
The calibration procedures were as follows. The subject was seated approximately 1 m from the projec-
tion screen, which was positioned at eye level in the wall between the room which housed the apparatus
and the experiment room. The subject was permitted to view the screen and the other contents of the
room freely for several minutes to ensure that she adapted to the ambient illumination level. To mask the
sounds of the tachistoscope, the subject listened to white noise through earphones. The response was
registered by a foot switch that the subject pressed to indicate detection of the target.
In a typical calibration session, the variable polarizer was set at a predetermined value, and each of the 80
slides was presented five times. Two sessions were conducted at each polarizer setting, providing 10 data
points per slide per polarizer setting. An alternative procedure was used when the variable polarizer was
set near one of the extremes of the experimental range. (By "extreme" we mean that the subject saw
nearly all slides or very few of them.) To reduce the tedium, only those slides near the detection thresh-
old were presented.
Figure 3 shows a sample of the psychometric curves generated from these data. Six of the 80 slides are
shown by plotting the probability of detecting a given slide as a function of the variable polarizer setting.
The following example illustrates the procedure that was used for all target slides to select those that
met the criteria shown in Figure 2. Using the data shown in Figure 3:
(1) Fix the variable polarizer at 50 degrees.
(2) Observe that slide s1 is detected with 0.5 probability (i.e., one of the requirements shown in Figure 2).
Suppose that we wish to include slide s6 in the 0.5 detection group. It was detected, however, 50 percent
of the time when the polarizer was set at 87.5 degrees-a change of 37.5 degrees from 50 to 87.5 degrees.
To account for this difference:
(3) Compute the cosine of the angle difference and square it [i.e., cos2(37.5) = 0.629].
(4) Decrease the exposure of slide só until the luminance is reduced by 0.629.
Now slide so will also be detected only 50 percent of the time when the polarizer is set at 50 degrees.
In actual practice, we could only change exposure by an integral number of f-stops, so changes of intensi-
ty were always by factors of 2. Working backward, however, the position of all the target slides on the
curve shown in Figure 2 could be determined. Furthermore, all the slides were grouped into bands near
the arrows shown in Figure 2.
. They did not participate in the remote viewing portion of the experiment.
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- s1 -s2 - s3 - $4
-- 55
s6 - Slide Number
100
80
Percent Detected
60
40
20
0
45
50
60 70 76 80 83 85
87
88
89
Relative Degrees
Figure 3 Degrees of Polarizer Rotation (Scaled for Equal Luminance Intervals)
Normally, data would be collected from a larger sample of individuals in order to arrive at an average
function, but in this experiment, data from two persons were sufficient for several reasons. First, pilot
studies indicated that interpersonal variability of target slide detection was quite low. Second, to collapse
interpersonal variability even further, we generated a steep psychometric curve by sampling the
abscissae coarsely. For example, if we sampled target slide contrast at only two values-0 and 100 percent
contrast-all observers would respond identically, thus eliminating interpersonal variation. In this study,
we sampled target contrasts at intervals that were found in pilot studies to produce low interpersonal
variability. Finally, for the purposes of this study, interpersonal variability was not significant because it
only shifts the psychometric function along the abscissa by some unknown amount without changing the
shape of the function. Thus, interpersonal variability could only result in an erroneous estimate of the
absolute magnitude of the feedback, but the relative magnitude of the feedback is independent of these
errors.
2.2 Experiment Protocol
Forty targets (selected from the original 80) were prepared into eight intensity groups of five targets each
using the calibration data described above. Each intensity group represented the cognitive awareness
that each viewer would experience (on the average) from the feedback. The top two intensities were
sufficient to experience nearly complete cognitive awareness of the feedback. By definition, those below
subliminal threshold could not be cognitively sensed.
To attempt to maintain some control over precognitively available "answers," we arranged that at no
future time would a response be cognitively compared to its intended target. Three pieces of information
are needed to provide complete knowledge of a session: (1) the target, (2) the response, and (3) the com-
parison between them. The target system was prepared by individuals who had no access to the re-
sponses. Furthermore, the RV monitor, the assistant, and the viewers had no access to the targets.
Finally, the analysts were never informed which were the correct results on a trial-by-trial basis.
The slide tray in the tachistoscope was controlled by a computer (Sun Microsystem 3-160) in such a way
that everyone was blind to target selection during a trial. To avoid cuing, for example, the tray always
began and ended in the zero position. When the computer moved the tray, an independent electrical
unit, which could be accessed by the computer, counted the tray steps to assure that the intended target
was displayed at the correct time.
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Three experienced viewers (Viewers 009, 105, and 177) and one novice (Viewer 137) each contributed 40
trials (five at each of the eight intensity levels). Each viewer averaged about 5 trials per week.
A random order of intensities of feedback was determined (by computer) once (and differently) for each
viewer prior to the start of the viewer's first trial. Once the order had been set, the trials cycled through the
list of intensities until the 40 trials were complete. The sequence of events for each trial was as follows:
(1) A monitor and a viewer entered a laboratory that contained a table, two chairs, a computer terminal,
and a covered 14-inch-square frosted glass window. The window served as a projection screen for
the tachistoscope in the adjacent laboratory.
(2) When the viewer was ready for the session, the monitor initiated an automatic target selection pro-
gram on the terminal.
(3) Using a standard feedback shift-register algorithm, which was seeded from the system clock, the
computer randomly selected (with replacement) a target from within the set of five for the given
intensity, stepped the slide tray to that target, and notified the monitor that the trial could begin.
Because of the closed tachistoscope shutters, no illumination of the slide was present on the frosted
screen.
(4) The monitor indicated that the trial should begin. For the next 10-15 minutes, the viewer drew and/
or wrote responses to the intended target.
(5) At the conclusion of the session, the monitor collected the response, and the viewer opened the
screen cover in such a way to shield the monitor from the feedback material.
(6) When the viewer was ready, he or she pressed a button that initiated a single tachistoscope display of
the target. One, and only one, 50-ms display appeared on the translucent window screen. (Electron-
ics prevented the viewer from receiving more feedback after the first button press.) The monitor
was instructed not to discuss the experience with the viewer in any way at any time.
(7) The monitor ended the session, and notified the control program from the computer terminal. After
the computer had returned the slide tray to zero, then, and only then, did the monitor and viewer
leave the room. All target data were preserved in a computer file.
2.3 Data Analysis
The rank-order analysis used in this experiment has been described elsewhere, so only an overview is
presented here.11 Using cluster analysis, all 200 targets had previously been assigned to orthogonal clus-
ters of similar targets (i.e., every cluster of similar targets differed from every other cluster). An assistant
prepared packages (one for each viewer) consisting of all the responses randomly ordered. Next, the
assistant computer-generated a list (ordered by target number) of seven targets for each response con-
sisting of the actual target and six decoys (a different set of seven for cach response). The decoys were
chosen from clusters different from each other and different from the target cluster. The decoy clusters
were chosen randomly from a set of 18, weighted by the number of targets in each cluster. Once a cluster
was selected, the decoy was randomly selected from within the cluster.
The response material and the target/decoys set of seven photographs (i.e., one target, six decoys) were
presented to two analysts for judging. The analysts arrived at a consensus to rank order each set of seven
targets for each response in accordance with the best to the worst response/target match. For each view-
er, a sum-of-ranks statistic was computed for the sessions. In addition, the data were plotted as RV qual-
ity (i.e, one minus the assigned rank) versus feedback intensity.
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III RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Table 1 shows the sum of ranks, associated p-value, and effect size for each viewer in this experiment.
Table 1
Results of the Tachistoscope Feedback Experiment
Results
Viewer
Sum of Ranks
p-value
Effect Size (r)
009
131
0.012
0.357
105
182
0.962
-0.281
137
159
0.484
0.006
177
104
3.5 × 10-6
0.711
Viewers 009 and 177 produced independently significant results (1-tailed). We can combine the data for
all viewers in many ways, but the most conservative is a binomial calculation assuming an event probabil-
ity of 0.05. Two successes in four trials corresponds to an exact p-value of 0.014. A more realistic estimate
is provided by a minimum p-value technique12 which yields 1.4 x 10-4. The important point, however, is
that this experiment produced strong evidence for an information-transfer anomaly."
Figures 4 through 7 show RV quality plotted against intensity of the feedback for the four viewers. The
lowest possible quality was zero and the maximum was seven. Shown also is a regression line and its
associated linear correlation coefficient for cach viewer. These figures should be compared to Figure 1,
the hypothetical expectations.
The relationship that is easiest to understand is hypothesis 1 in Figure 1 (i.e., increased RV performance
with increased feedback intensity). We did not observe any such correlation with either of the significant
viewers. In fact, the linear correlation coefficients were not significantly different from zero.
This lack of positive correlation, in conjunction with significant evidence of RV, complicates the interpre-
tation considerably. The most obvious conclusion is that the viewers obtained their data in real time and
not from the feedback. However, because of the conceptual difficulties outlined in the introduction of this
paper, alternative explanations must be considered.
* As an aside, we note that all viewers complained about the lack of "experiential" feedback.
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10
r = - 0.230 df = 38
8
. ..
6
RV Quality
·
.
2
0
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
Intensity (arbitrary units)
Figure 4 RV Quality as a Function of Feedback Intensity: Viewer 009
10
F
r = 0.102 df = 38
8
.
6
RV Quality
.
·
4
.
2
.
0
0
1000
.
2000
3000
4000
Intensity (arbitrary units)
Figure 5 RV Quality as a Function of Feedback Intensity: Viewer 177
. .
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. ... ..
4
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F
r = - 0.045 df = 38
8
-
RV Quality
6
·
.
4
2
-
.
.
0
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
Intensity (arbitrary units)
Figure 6 RV Quality as a Function of Feedback Intensity: Viewer 137
10
r = 0.155 df = 38
8
6
·
·
4
.
2
·
·
. ..
·
0
10
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
Intensity (arbitrary units)
Figure 7 RV Quality as a Function of Feedback Intensity: Viewer 105
Onc alternative is that the absolute position of the psychometric curve is important. Feedback might be
related to the cognitive experience but only at large values of luminance contrast. If this is true, then we
might not expect functional dependence of remote viewing quality on the feedback in this particular
experiment.
The most important alternative, however, is that precognition may be exclusively goal oriented, and
thus, we are faced with the unfalsifiablity issue. We might not ever be able to interpret process-oriented
experiments if this aspect of precognition is true. Therefore, the question of from what time frame does
RV data originate remains unanswered at the present.
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
We would like to thank Beverly Humphrey for her valuable contribution as an analyst and Thane Frivold
for creating the tricky computer control code. Thanks also to the tireless effort of the remainder of the
Cognitive Sciences Program for target selection and technical administration.
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REFERENCES
1. Honorton, C. and Ferrari, D. C., "'Future Telling:' A Meta-analysis of Forced-choice Precognition
Experiments, 1935-1987," Journal of Parapsychology, Vol. 53 (December 1989).
2. De Beauregard, O. C., "Time Symmetry and the Einstein Paradox," Il Nuovo Cimento, Vol. 42B.
No. 1 (November 1977).
3. De Beauregard, O. C., "On Some Frequent but Controversial Statements Concerning the
Einstein -- Podolsky-Rosen Correlations," Foundations of Physics, Vol. 15, No. 8 (August 1985).
4. Schmidt, H., "A Logically Consistent Model of a World with Psi Interaction," Proceedings of an
International Conference on Quantum Physics and Parapsychology (1974), pp. 205-228,
Parapsychology Foundation, Inc., New York (1975).
5. Schmidt, H., "Toward a Mathematical Theory of Psi," The Journal of the American Society for
Psychical Research, Vol. 69, No. 4, pp. 301-320 (October 1975).
6. Targ, E. and Targ, R., "Paranormal Perception as a Function of Target Probabilities," Journal of
Parapsychology, Vol. 50, No. 1, pp.17-28 (March 1986).
7. Radin, D. I., "Effects of a Priori Probability on Psi Perception: Does Precognition Predict Actual or
Probable Futures?" Journal of Parapsychology, Vol. 52, No. 3, pp. 187-212 (September 1988).
8. Vassy, Z., "Complexity Dependence in Precognition," Journal of Parapsychology, Vol. 50, No. 3,
pp. 235-270 (September 1986).
9. Schmidt, H., "Comparison of PK Action on Two Different Random Number Generators," Journal
of Parapsychology, Vol. 38, No. 1, pp. 47-55 (March 1974).
10. Marks, L. E., Sensory Processes: The New Psychophysics, Academic Press, New York and London
(1975).
11. Humphrey, B. S., E. C. May, and J. M. Utts, "Fuzzy Set Technology in the Analysis of Remote
Viewing," Proceedings of the Parapsychological Association 31st Annual Convention, pp. 378-394,
Montreal, Canada (August 1988).
12. Hedges, L. V. and J. Olkin, Statistical Methods for Meta-Analysis, p. 34, Academic Press, Orlando,
Florida (1985).
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V MAGNETOENCEPHALOGRAPHY
The papers in this section primarily support the anomalous cognition neuromagnetic experiments.
The number that appears in the upper right-hand corner of the first page for each publication is keyed
to the following descriptions:
22. Biotechnologies, Inc., "Identification of Sources of Brain Activity Using Magnetic Source
Localization and Magnetic Resonance Imaging," Research Review. Biotechnologies, Inc.,
publishes a number of very brief research reviews. This one discusses the potential for localizing
the response to a 1000 Hz audio stimulus.
23. Sato, S., Balish, M., and Muratore, R., "Principles of Magnetoencephalography," Journal of
Clinical Neurophysiology, Vol. 8, No. 2, pp. D1-D13, (1991). This paper is a technical tutorial for
magnetoencephalography. Although it is clinically oriented, the discussion is broad enough to
cover matters of interest to the research community (e.g., evoked responses).
24. Lehmann, D., Ozaki, H., and Pal, I., "EEG Alpha Map Series: Brain Micro-states by
Space-oriented Adaptive Segmentation," Electroencephalography and Clinical Neurophysiology,
Vol. 67, pp. 271-288, (1987). This technical research paper is included because it is a primary
reference for paper number 19. Among other technical issues, it describes the phase shift of alpha
activity as a result of external stimuli.
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22
MAGNETIC SOURCE IMAGING
RESEARCH REVIEW
Identification Of Sources Of Brain Activity
Using Magnetic Source Localization And
Magnetic Resonance Imaging
..
Pantev, C., Hoke, M., Lehnertz, K., Lutkenhoner, B., Fahrendorf, G .. Stober, U.
Identification of sources of brain neuronal activity with high spatiotem-
poral resolution through combination of neuromagnetic source localization
(NMSL) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Electroencephalography
and clinical Neurophysiology, 1990; 75: 173-184.
In this study, the locations of the origin of
the M100 wave of the auditory evoked
magnetic field in response to tone bursts of
different frequencies, obtained through
dipole localization methods, were related to
cerebral structures by comparison with
coronal MRI tomograms of each subject.
Four normal subjects were presented with
contralateral tone burst stimuli of 250, 500,
1000, 2000, and 4000 Hz, and average
evoked magnetic fields were recorded over
a matrix of positions covering one
hemisphere. The waveform data for one
subject at 60 recording positions are shown
in Figure 1, as is an equi-contour map of the
magnetic field values at the instant of time
where the M100 peak reaches its maximum
value for the 1000 Hz stimulus.
The dipole localizations for the M100 peak
for stimulation with tone frequencies from
250 Hz to 4000 Hz confirmed previous
results showing a linear increase in the
depth of the dipole source with the
logarithm of tone frequency. Moreover, all
source localizations corresponded to the
primary auditory cortex located on the
surface of Heschl's gyrus. A comparison of
the dipole localizations for one subject with
the subject's MRI tomogram is shown in
Figure 2.
The results highlight the exceptional
capabilities of a combination of these two
non-invasive, high-resolution techniques for
functional diagnosis.
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C. PANTEV ET AL.
1:250 Hz
2. 500 Hz
3'1000 Hz
4: 2000 Hz
1
5 cm
5:4000Hz
1
5 cm
Fig. 2. Comparison of the results of functional localization obtained for one subject (Fig. 2) with anatomical structures obtained from
the same subject through magnetic resonance imaging. ECD locations are marked by black dots at the tips of white arrow's
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176
C. PANTEV ET AL.
SUBJ. : HW
RECORDING SIDE: RC
60 MEASUREMENT POSITIONS
96 SWEEPS
DATA TYPE: MEAN AMPLITUDE
SCALING :
-600.00 -
600.00 fT
TIME : - 200 -
600 mẹ
0
0
0
0
OT4
e
O
0
Fig. 1. Top: synopsis of averaged response wave forms measured from 60 positions over the right cerebral hemisphere (stimulus
frequency 1000 Hz). Bottom: distribution of the auditory evoked field at that instant of time when wave M100 assumes its maximum,
projected onto the rough outline of the supralateral surface of the brain. Circles: measurement positions; arrow: calculated position
and direction of the ECD (taken from Hoke 1988).
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23
Journal of Clinical N
8(2):DI-D13. R.Approved For Release 2003/04/18 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100030001-4
€ 1991 American Electroencephalographic Society
Principles of Magnetoencephalography
Susumu Sato, Marshall Balish, and Robert Muratore
Neurophysiology Unit. Medical Neurology Branch, National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke. National Institutes
of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, U.S.A.
Summary: Magnetoencephalography (MEG) is a new, noninvasive functional
test equivalent to EEG. It has been used to localize the sources of evoked re-
sponses and interictal and ictal epileptiform discharges and to study patients
with psychiatric illnesses, cerebrovascular accidents, and migraine. In epilepsy
research. it is hoped that MEG will provide information similar to that yielded
by depth or subdural electrode recording, or that the combination of these meth-
ods will provide more information than either one alone. The application of
MEG appears to be widening, although it is not yet a routine clinical diagnostic
tool. The utility of MEG is limited by technological problems. but new and more
efficient systems are becoming available. Within several years, advances in the
technology and understanding of MEG may modify the course of its application.
Key Words: Magnetoencephalography-Instrumentation-EEG-Evoked re-
sponses-Epilepsy.
Magnetoencephalography (MEG) is a new, non-
invasive functional test equivalent to EEG. MEG
has been used to localize the sources of evoked re-
sponses and interictal and ictal epileptiform dis -.
charges and to study patients with psychiatric ill-
nesses. cerebrovascular accidents, and migraine. In
epilepsy research. it is hoped that MEG will provide
"information similar to that yielded by depth or sub-
dural electrode recording. or that the combination of
these methods will provide more information than
either one alone (Wood et al., 1985).
PHYSICS OF MEG
Generation of Biomagnetic Fields
The decrease in force with increasing distance of
both the magnetic and electric forces suggests that
electricity and magnetism are related. The relation
between a magnetic field and its associated current
was empirically defined by Jean Patiste Biot and
Felix Savart. Biot-Savart's law states that the mag-
netic field due to a small current element varies as the
inverse square of the distance of the current element,
varies directly with the current, and varies with the
sine of the angle between the directions of the current
and of the leading to it. In modern notation.
vector
dB =
Ho idl X ^
4TT
where dB is the differential magnetic field in tesla,
Ho is the magnetic permeability of free space and is
assigned the value of 4T × 10-7 Tm/A. i is the current
in amperes, di the length of the current element in
meters, f is the unit vector pointing from the location
in space at which the magnetic field is evaluated to
the location of the current element, and r is the dis-
tance between those two locations in meters. The
cross-product can be interpreted by the right hand
rule: dB is mutually perpendicular to both dl and f.
This relation is understood by placing the right hand
in space at the location at which the magnetic field is
Address correspondence and reprint requests to Dr. S. Sato at
Building 10. Room SC101. National Institute of Neurological Dis-
orders and Stroke. National Institutes of Health. Bethesda. MD
20892. U.S.A.
DI
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to be evaluated. Point the hand parallel to the cur-
rent element idl. Excepting the thumb, point the fin-
gers parallel to f. Extend the thumb, and it will point
along the direction of d'B. A bit of finger play shows
that a magnetic field encircles a straight wire carry-
ing current and forms a dipolar (donut-shaped) re-
gion around a loop 'of current. The superposition
principle, which states that the field produced by a
sum of sources is equal to the sum of the fields of the
individual sources, allows the total magnetic field B
to be calculated by summing up the contributions
from the individual current elements. In this way,
the magnetic field for a particular source model can
be determined. Williamson and Kaufman (1990)
have reviewed this subject in detail.
Instrumentation
.
The measurability of the neuromagnetic field pro-
duced by the flow of electric current in cerebral neu-
rons is made more likely by the columnar arrange-
ment of the cortical neurons, which leads to the
summation and re-enforcement of the field of each
of the firing neurons. Nonetheless. a typical neuro-
magnetic field is on the order of 10-12 T, several
orders of magnitude less than the magnetic field of
the earth. The measurability of the magnetic field is
made successful by shielding the subject and the
measuring instrument from extrinsic noise, and by
the exquisite sensitivity of the measuring instru-
ments. ...
Measuring Devices
If an electric current can give rise to a magnetic
field, it is natural to ask if a magnetic field can give
rise to an electric current. A magnetic field can give
rise to an electric current as long as the magnetic field
is changing. This effect is called induction and is the
basis for the detection of magnetic fields. If a coil of
wire is placed in a changing magnetic field, an elec-
tric current is generated in the coil. This current then
becomes the signal of the field. Reorienting the coil
and changing the number and distribution of wire
turns in the coil change the signal.
One device has become standard in neuromagnetic
measurements. the superconducting quantum inter-
ference device (SQUID), which allows very sensitive
measurements.of the magnetic field.
A SQUID is
made of a metal ring with a weak link, an extremely
across.
thin gap, which
K
tunneling occurs .
There are two types of SQUID: rf-SQUID,'
.
which has a weak link and is biased with radiofre-
quency current, and DC-SQUID, which has two
weak links and is biased by DC current. The latter is
less noisy
than the former and therefore
has been used in most of the recent magnetometers.
The SQUID itself can be used as a magnetometer,
but its combination with detection coils of various
configurations allows a flexible design of measuring
devices.
Erne (1983) has reviewed SQUIDs as
used in biomagnetism.
Detection coil configurations can be classified by
the aspect of the magnetic field to which they are
most responsive. In this system, a magnetometer is a
zeroth-order gradiometer. A first-order gradiometer
is sensitive to the first spatial derivative of the field,
and so on. Coils aligned axially are sensitive to the
derivatives along their axis, and coils aligned in a
plane are sensitive to the derivatives in that plane.
The most common design is a second-order axial
gradiometer with its axis approximately perpendicu-
lar to the head. However, this configuration intro-
duces the possibility of signal loss or reduction of
sensitivity by virtue of layers of coils (the distance
between adjacent coils is a baseline). The recent
trend is to utilize the first-order gradiometer config-
uration. In fact, the first-order gradiometer is already
used in the recent larger neuromagnetometers (Bio-
magnetic Technologies, 1989; Gudden et al. 1989).
In a typical arrangement, detection coils are in-
ductively coupled to a SQUID. Associated circuitry
provides an electrical potential that is proportional
to the magnetic field near the detection coils. The
detection coils and SQUID are cooled to supercon-
ducting temperatures by a liquid helium bath in a
dewar. Although its primary purpose is the opera-
tion of the SQUID, the cold bath provides some
benefits and inconveniences. The chief advantage of
the cold bath is the great reduction in noise. Among
the inconveniences are the need to maintain the
liquid helium and the necessity for dewar insulation,
which inhibits the mechanical positioning of the de-
vice beyond a 45° itt. These problems hamper ef-
forts to incorporate large numbers of sensors into the
dewar. A cryocooler system with multiple stages of
gaseous cooling was developed to try to overcome
this inconvenience. The prototype was used at New
York University, with some success; however the
number of SQUID coils is limited and there are
noise sources in produced.
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Increasing the number of sensors in the dewar pro-
vides the ability to take simultaneous recordings
across large areas of the head, as in EEG. Early
MEG systems used a single channel. As the arrays
grew, a hexagonal arrangement became popular,
and the next largest size was the 7-channel machine.
Currently, 2 more ring of coils have been successfully
added, producing 37-channel machines that cover
an area of 14.4 or 20 cm in diameter for the Biomag-
netic Technologies system and Siemens' system, re-
spectively. Machines with as many as 100 channels
for full head coverage are being designed.
The use of high-temperature superconducting ma-
terial is well in line with technology advancement in
biomagnetism but preliminary experiments suggest
that a SQUID made with such materials is too noisy
to be of practical use (Clarke and Koch, 1988).
Shielding
Magnetic shielding is typically provided by build-
ing a smaller room inside a larger one. The smaller
room houses the dewar with the SQUID, associated
circuitry, a gantry for movement of the dewar, and a
chair or bed for a human subject. The inner room is
called the shielded room, and its walls are usually
made of several layers of a conductor such as alum-
inum or copper, which provides eddy current shield-
ing of higher frequency noise, and several layers of
mu-metal or other highly magnetically permeable
material, which provide shielding of lower frequen-
cy noise. Erne and Romani (1990) have reviewed
magnetically shielded rooms.
In some measuring environments, gradiometer
coil designs provide spatial filtering of magnetic
fields, which might obviate the need for extensive
and expensive shielding. In the hospital environ-
ment, however, with many medical machines
and numerous other
sources of interference, a
magnetically shielded room is mandatory.
COMPARISON OF MEG AND EEG
There are some important differences between
EEG and MEG. The electrical potentials measured
by EEG are field potentials. or so-called volume cur-
M
MAGNETIC FIELD
EEG
EEG
SCALP
SKULL
E
E
8
DURA
D
MAGNETIC FIELD
D
.
E
.
-
BRAIN
E
EXTRACELLULAR CURRENT_
E
E
FIG. 1. EEG is recorded between two electrodes (a and b) placed over the scalp, whereas MEG records the magnetic fields emanating from
a tangential source (A). The magnetic field (C) is not distorted by the scalp. skull, and dura, but the EEG signal is dispersed. attenuated, and
distorted by them (E). A radial dipole (B) generates magnetic fields (D) parallel to the detection coil (M). and they may not be detected.
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rents; they are easily attenuated, diverted, and dis-
torted by the dura, skull, and scalp, whereas the mag-
netic fields are not affected by these structures (Fig.
1). However, it is well known that the magnitude of
the magnetic fields decays at a rate of 1/72 to 1/~
(where r = distance from the source). Therefore,
there is some concern about the ability of MEG to
detect deeper sources (Cuffin and Cohen, 1977a).
Electrodes and conductive gel are used in EEG, but
not in MEG. The quantity measured by EEG is a
relative value, namely, a potential difference be-
tween two electrode positions, whereas MEG mea-
sures an absolute value when the distance of a source
is within the baseline of the detection coil (Wikswo
and Roth. 1988) and a relative value when a source is
deeper than the baseline distance. The EEG contour
maps are often monopolar and occasionally dipolar.
The MEG maps are usually dipolar or multipolar
and rarely monopolar. The MEG pattern is rotated
by 90° from the EEG pattern, and the MEG maps are
about one-third tighter that the EEG maps (Cohen
and Cuffin, 1983). EEG is known to measure the
field potentials of current sources oriented in all
directions, with radially oriented current sources
measured somewhat preferentially. MEG measures
chiefly the radial component of the magnetic fields,
because of the rough sphericity of the head and the
configuration of the magnetometer. This peculiarity
of MEG has been interpreted to mean that MEG
measures tangential current sources located in
sulci; because about two-thirds of the cortex is in"
sulci, it is thought that loss of information due to
MEG's inability to measure current sources in the
gyri is minimal (Hari and Kaukoranta, 1985).
Calculation of three-dimensional coordinates
from EEG data requires six parameters: three for
-- -- location: one for magnitude; one for orientation, and
one for conductivity. whereas MEG does not require
a parameter for conductivity (Stok, 1986).
Because of the tissue-induced attenuation and dif-
fusion of the EEG, the dipole depth calculated by
EEG mapping may turn out to be deeper than the
actual depth. The direction of current flow estimated
by evoked magnetic fields is opposite the direction
estimated by evoked potentials, suggesting that the
magnetic fields are generated by high-density intra-
cellular current, whereas the electrical potentials are
produced by volume current (Kaufman and Wil-
liamson, 1982).
These comparisons suggest that MEG may have a
somewhat better spatial resolution than EEG (Co-
hen and Cuffin, 1983).
MODELING IN MEG
A knowledge of the so-called forward and inverse
problems is essential for understanding biomagnet-
ism and its analysis, but there is no unique solution
to the inverse problem. For MEG analysis, informa-
tion concerning the geometry of the head and the
current source or sources must be obtained. Asimple
spherical model with a single current dipole has
been used most commonly, although other models
may be more appropriate in some situations. These
subjects have been reviewed by Nunez (198'i), Ilmo-
niemi et al. (1985), Hari and Ilmoniemi (1986), Stok et
al., (1986, 1987), Sarvas (1987). and Williamson and
Kaufman (1987).
Head Geometry
The simplest model of the head is the homoge-
neous half-space model with a single dipole (Wil-
liamson and Kaufman, 1987), in which the magnetic
field at any point is easily predicted by Biot-Savart's
law, allowing estimation of the location and direc-
tion of such a dipole from the magnetic field map
and the interextrema distance. In practice, the head
.is most commonly modeled as a uniform conducting
sphere. in which radial current dipoles are assumed
to have no measurable external magnetic field (Co-
hen and Hosaka, 1976; Cuffin and Cohen, 1977b). In
this model, it is also assumed that volume currents
" make no contribution to the field and that simple
relations exist between field maxima and the dipole
location and depth.
This is probably the most fre-
quently used model in MEG: however, there are
important problems with this model. Such a simple
model does not represent the temporal lobe well ;-
causing an angulation problem between the sensors
and the inner surface of the skull, and the results are
susceptible to the effects of volume currents (Barth et
al., 1986; Rose et al.,
1987b, 1989a).
More precise models based on the actual skull
shape obtained by
magnetic resonance imaging
(MRI) have been suggested (Meijs et al., 1987; Meijs
and Peters, 1987) and give more accurate localiza-
tion in in vitro models, although at some computa-
tional expense. Such a model was recently applied to
localization of scalp-recorded spike discharges in
the temporal region and appeared to give reasonable
accuracy of discharge localization compared with
that obtained by subdural electrodes (Ducla-Soares
et al .. 1989).
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Source Models
Modeling spike foci as a current dipole source is
simplistic; the foci are probably more distributed.
Nunez (1986) discussed possible effects of multiple
dipole sources, and Barth et al. (1989) attempted to
solve the sources of interictal activity with multiple
current dipoles, each with its own temporal proper-
ties. A more complicated distributed current source
is probably more representative of the epileptogenic
focus, and work is underway on the interpretation of
MEG sources with respect to such a model (Clarke et
al., 1989; Ioannides et al., 1989; Kado et al., 1989),
although this has not yet been applied to the field of
epilepsy.
SPONTANEOUS ACTIVITY
Alpha Rhythm
In 1968, alpha rhythm was magnetically measured
with an induction coil for the first time (Cohen, 1968).
There is a good correlation between MEG and EEG
alpha rhythm (Hughes et al., 1976; Cohen, 1979:
Cohen and Cuffin, 1979; Modena et al., 1982). The
amplitude of alpha rhythm is largest over the parieto-
occipital regions (Reite et al., 1976), and the largest
magnetic flux of alpha rhythm occurs over the longi-
tudinal midline (Cohen, 1979). The maximum am-
plitude of the magnetic alpha rhythm is 2.5 pT peak
to peak (Carelli et al., 1983). Many investigators have
attempted to localize the sources of alpha activity,
and some have suggested that the alpha activity has
multiple sources in or near the visual cortex (Vveden-
sky et al., 1986; Carelli et al., 1989). Recent work sug-
gests that magnetic alpha rhythm arises from many
discrete sources. oscillating one after another and
occasionally overlapping temporally. These sources
are clustered near the midline, extending to a depth
of several centimeters (Williamson et al .. 1989).
Sleep Spindles
Sleep spindles were initially difficult to record
with MEG (Hughes et al., 1976; Freedman, 1981).
With a laboratory-built single-channel magnetome-
ter, however, sleep spindles (12.5-16 Hz) were recent-
ly detected at the central vertex, predominantly as a
radial magnetic component, in three normal volun-
teers (Nakasato et al., 1990).
Epileptiform Activity
The use of MEG in epilepsy research has been re-
viewed by Rose et al. (1987c). A worldwide surge of
interest in MEG occurred when investigators from
the United States and Italy published their results on
localization of epileptiform discharges in 1982 and
1984 (Barth et al., 1982, 1984a; Modena et al., 1982;
Ricci et al., 1984). MEG is used to study interictal and
ictal discharges and also background activity, be-
cause all of them are important for localization of the
seizure origin.
Interictal Activity
Hughes et al. (1977), followed later by Modena et
al. (1982), first reported that the spike component of
epileptiform discharges was well defined magneti-
cally, but the slow-wave component was not. Simul-
taneous MEG and EEG recordings showed that
EEG slow waves and MEG multiple spikes often oc-
curred together or that EEG changes occurred with-
out accompanying MEG signals or vice versa (Ricci
et al., 1983; Sutherling et al., 1988a).
Spike averaging. At each sensor position, as many
as 10-20 similar EEG spikes are sampled, and their
magnetic signals are averaged using an EEG chan-
nel as a trigger. Then a map of the magnetic field is
constructed and used for calculation of equivalent
current dipole sources for spike discharges. The pur-
pose of spike averaging is to improve the signal-to-
noise ratio, and the eventual localization is usually
expressed as a point or central point (centroid) (Suth-
erling et al., 1988a). Even though the epileptogenic
focus is physiologically not a point, dipole source
modeling is an important step toward further under-
standing of a complex problem such as epileptic sei-
zures (Barth et al., 1982, 1984a,b: Sutherling et al.,
1988a). Unfortunately, spike-averaging methods
may result in loss of spatial and temporal informa-
tion and of details concerning individual spike types.
The template method (Salustri and Chapman. 1989)
can be used to find similar spikes for averaging.
With a larger MEG system, such as a 37-channel
machine, this process becomes easier or unnecessary
because the magnetometer does not have to be
moved around to scan the patient's head.
Single-spike analysis. Individual spikes can be
mapped and their location estimated without aver-
aging (Sato et al., 1985; Rose et al., 1987a). With this
method, important information riding on "waves"
will not be "averaged out." Although individual
EEG spikes appear somewhat dissimilar in mor-
phology, amplitude, and distribution, it nonetheless
seemed possible to group spikes according to their
similarities, thereby yielding several different types
of spikes (Rose et al., 1987a). With a single-channel
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or seven-channel system, the entire head cannot be
measured simultaneously, causing difficulties in
combining events dispersed in time. Therefore, the
selection of signals with a good signal-to-noise ratio
becomes essential but is tedious. The method of
identifying spike types is typically visual, although
other methods are available (Salustri and Chap-
man, 1989). Nevertheless, less information may be
lost with single-spike analysis than with averaging
techniques. With a 37-channel magnetometer, con-
secutive spikes can be analyzed with good results on
localization (Sato et al., 1990).
Relative covariance method. MEG and EEG are
recorded simultaneously, the EEG activity of interest
(frequency band) is identified by Fourier transform
techniques, and then MEG and EEG are digitally fil-
tered to a narrow band surrounding the frequencies
of interest. The covariance of the filtered MEG and
EEG signals at each sensor site is calculated and
divided by the variance of the filtered EEG, giving
the "relative covariance." This calculation is per-
formed at all MEG locations, and the EEG channel
or channels used are consistent for all MEG loca-
tions, although different EEG channels may be com-
pared (Ricci et al .. 1984, 1985, 1987; Romani and
Leoni, 1985; Chapman. 1989). It is claimed that the
relative covariance is proportional to the value of the
magnetic field perpendicular to the head at a given
location (Ricci et al., 1985). A contour map of the
relative covariance is constructed, and an equivalent
dipole current source may be localized. The locali-
zation step is typically based on a spherical model
assuming that only radial magnetic components are
measured (Ricci et al., 1985).
The relative covariance method is important, be-
cause it allows analysis of background activity and
localization in the absence of a spike focus if there is
detectable abnormal rhythmic activity. In principle,
a similar analysis could be applied to stereotyped
seizures with rhythmic activity.
Ictal Activity
The capturing of an ictal event with MEG is diffi-
cult, particularly with the single-channel and seven-
channel systems. Nevertheless, ictal recording is not
entirely precluded, because the patient usually does
not move for 5-10 s during the initial phase of the sei-
zure (Sutherling et al., 1987) or during simple partial
seizures (Rose et al., 1989b). Simple recordings of
ictal events such as 3/s spike-and-wave discharges
were done early in the development of MEG (Modena
et al., 1982), but detailed studies to determine spatial
localization of sources are difficult inasmuch as
events would have to be recorded at many locations
(in the absence of large multichannel magnetome-
ters) and the information from different seizures
combined. In patients with jacksonian seizures,
MEG was thoughtto provide localizing information
despite the absence of abnormal EEG findings (Mo-
dena et al., 1982; Ricci, 1983).
Migraine
Spreading cortical depression, which is a slowly
changing potential, has been implicated in migraine
to explain the evolution of the clinical manifesta-
tions associated with the disorder. Although spread-
ing cortical depression has never been observed
spontaneously in humans, biphasic waves lasting for
less than 10 s with amplitudes ranging from 800 fT to
13 pT were recorded with MEG in patients with
migraine (Tepley et al., 1989). This area of research
requires further investigation and confirmation of
results.
EVOKED RESPONSES
While studies of evoked magnetic responses have
not yet provided unique clinical information, they do
provide information on cerebral functional proc-
essing and, when combined with imaging informa-
tion, establish interesting functional-anatomical
correlations. The information provided by MEG
complements and in some cases resolves ambigui-
ties remaining in
comparable studies of evoked
potentials. All modalities may be studied by MEG,
but stimuli must not generate significant magnetic
fields.
Auditory Evoked Responses
Short-Latency Evoked Responses
The detection of brainstem-evoked fields is tech-
nically quite difficult. When signals somewhat above
background noise were recorded in a shielded room,
using a magnetometer (not a gradiometer) and aver-
aging from 12,000 to 96,000 sweeps (Erne et al., 1988),
waveforms corresponding to brainstem-evoked po-
tential waves V and VI could be recorded, and their
amplitudes were different at different recording lo-
cations.
Middle- and Long-Latency Evoked Responses
The auditory stimulus is generally led by plastic
tube to the patient to avoid interference from the
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TABLE 1. Auditory evoked responses
Reference
Acquisition
[Freq (Hz). time (s))
Final
bandpass (Hz)
Repetitions
Number of
positions
Magnetometer
(channels)
Design
(order)
Stimulation"
Shielding
Reite et al. (1978)
?. 0.2
5.0-15.0
516
5
1
2nd
Clicks: ISI. 0.25
Clicks: ISI. 0.7
Aluminum
Aluminum
Reite et al. (1981)
7. 0.5
0.1-30
128
-
Ist
Elberling et al. (1982)
320. 0.8
DC-18
60
24
1
Ist
Tones (1 kHz), 0.5; ISI. 1.5~4.5
No
Romani et al. (1982a,b)
32
1,000
40
1
2nd
AM tones (200-5,000 Hz)
No
Pantev et al. (1988)
250, 1.024
0.1-30
96
50-60
-
2nd
Tones (250-4,000 Hz). 0.5: ISI. 4
No
Papanicolaou et al.
(1990)
?
?
100
56
7
2nd
Yes
Hari et al. (1980)
?
0.03-15
>300
30
-
0
Tone (1 kHz). 0.05: ISI. 0.4
Tone (1 kHz). 0.8: ISI. 4
No
"Type of stimulus (frequency), length in seconds, interstimulus interval (ISI) in seconds.
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· PRINCIPLES OF MEG
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magnetic field generated by the usual transducers or
headphones. Table 1 shows recording parameters
and details of stimuli from a sample of studies. Re-
sponses to approximately 100 stimuli are usually re-
corded at each magnetometer position. The mag-
netometer is moved (by some investigators randomly)
over the region of interest in order to avoid system-
atic bias resulting from a change in state, which has a
significant effect on responses. Filter settings given
in Table 1 reflect the final bandpass; the signals
typically are recorded through analog filters with a
wider bandpass and are subsequently filtered dig-
itally.
:
Reite et al. (1978) demonstrated the feasibility of
recording magnetic fields to auditory stimuli. Hari et
al. (1980) described the time course and spatial dis-
tribution of auditory evoked responses. In particu-
lar, major peaks at a latency of 100 ms (N100) and 200
ms (P200) were described in addition to a subsequent
slow sustained field. For the most part, when source
localization has been attempted, simple models such
as a single equivalent dipole in half space (Pantev et
al., 1988) or a single equivalent dipole in a spherical
conductor (Papanicolaou et al., 1990) have been
used.
Early work (Hari et al., 1980; Elberling et al., 1982)
suggested that the generators of the N100 were prob-
ably located on or near the planum temporale. More
recent studies with gross anatomical correlation
(Pantev et al., 1988) or MRI correlation (Pantev et al ..
1990; Papanicolaou et al., 1990) have largely con-
firmed this localization. The generators of a peak at
50 ms (Reite et al., 1988) are also near the planum
temporale.
Reite et al. (1981) showed that the amplitude of the
N100 peak is larger when the stimulus is from the
contralateral side. Papanicolaou et al. (1990) found
that the equivalent dipole for the N100 was located
more posteriorly and medially when stimuli were
contralateral. Rogers et al. (1989, 1990) suggested
that successive time points in the N100 peak had
generators that moved anteriorly, and this was clear
when stimulation was contralateral, not ipsilateral.
These and other studies, then, suggest the possibility
that somewhat different cortical areas are activated
by contralateral and ipsilateral stimulation.
Elberling et al. (1982), on the basis of the N100
response, suggested that equivalent dipoles over the
left hemisphere are posterior to those over the right.
Reite et al. (1988) made similar observations on the
50-ms response, although MRI correlation allowed
localization of the equivalent dipole near the plan-
um temporale.
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S. SATO ET AL.
Early studies using a steady-state technique (Ro-
mani et al., 1982a,b). suggested a tonotopic arrange-
ment of the responses, and more recent work (Pantev
et al., 1988, 1990) is in basic agreement; the depth of
the equivalent dipole generating the N100 increases
with the logarithm of the stimulus frequency. The
mapping is not clear for the later waves at 160 ms.
Various paradigms involving speech elements as
stimuli, or so-called oddball paradigms, have been
used in studies attempting to elucidate cerebral proc-
esses underlying attention and speech perception
(Sams et al., 1985; Makela et al., 1988; Hari, 1989a,b;
Hari and Lounasmaa. 1989). This work is beyond the
scope of the present review, but such studies, when
combined with MRI findings. for example, should
provide impressive functional-anatomical infor-
mation.
Somatosensory Evoked Responses
The basic stimulation paradigms for somatosen-
sory evoked responses are not greatly different from
those used in recording somatosensory evoked po-
tentials (SSEPs). Recordings may be successfully
performed even without a shielded room (Sutherling
et al., 1988b). The current pulse is brief enough not to
interfere with subsequent recordings. An overview
of methodology is given by Hari and Kaukoranta
(1985); they also briefly discuss fields evoked by
noxious stimuli. Huttunen (1986) has described
methodology for recordings of fields evoked by tac-
tile stimulation. The recording bandpass and sam-
pling rate determine to a large extent whether or not
early peaks corresponding to the "cortical" com-
ponents of SSEPs are emphasized.
Several investigators have reliably recorded com-
·ponents corresponding to cortical SSEPs (Rossini et
al., 1988; Sutherling et al., 19886: Tiihonen et al.,
1989). Tiihonen et al. (1989) found that the equiva-
lent dipole for the 27-ms peak (P27m) was located on
the average 1 cm anteromedially to sources for the 20-
ms peak (N20m). Their findings were consistent with
a tangential source (posterior bank of central sulcus)
as the generator of the N20m. Sutherling et al. (1988b)
compared localization of somatosensory evoked re-
sponses based on MEG, EEG, and electrocorticog-
raphy (ECOG). The average distance of localiza-
tion from the central fissure was 4 mm in EEG and
MEG and 3 mm in ECOG. Averaging MEG and
EEG distances yielded localizations comparable to
those of ECOG. These results. although from only
three patients, suggest that MEG and EEG may re-
liably and noninvasively localize somatosensory
cortex. Suk et al. (1989) attempted to correlate local-
izations from stimulation of different fingers with
MRI-based structural information. Their studies
suggest that such noninvasive mapping of the sen-
sory homunculus is possible.
Visual Evoked Responses
Teyler et al. (1975) were among the first to report on
studies of visual evoked magnetic responses and
described a method based on brief flashes. Because
cathode-ray tubes generate large magnetic fields,
more sophisticated stimuli (i.e .. patterns or gratings)
require the use of projection equipment and mirrors.
Kouizjer et al. (198$) and Aine et al. (1989) described
their techniques for stimulation and recording of
visual evoked responses. As in other modalities, in
the absence of large multiarray systems. obtaining
field patterns requires repeating the averages at dif-
ferent locations. Filter settings and sampling are
otherwise similar to recording visual evoked poten-
tials. The appropriate treatment of field maps. even
if apparently dipolar, is controversial. Stok et al.
(1986) argued that the inverse problem should prob-
ably take into account a realistic head shape, rather
than relying on spherical models. In spite of this
objection, George et al. (1989), using sinusoidal grat-
ing stimuli, localized apparent equivalent dipoles
that, when projected on MRI scans, were near cal-
carine cortex and appeared to evolve temporally.
Under some conditions of stimulation and at some
time points, two different dipoles appear necessary to
explain the evoked fields (Aine et al., 1989).
Premotor Fields
Premotor fields are studied by recording magnetic
activity preceding self-paced or triggered movements
(Mizutani et al., 1989). Table 2 shows selected param-
;eters used by several investigators. The electromyo-
graphic (EMG) burst is frequently used as the trigger
to average the preceding magnetic activity. The pro-
cedure must be repeated at each magnetometer posi-
tion, and the time transients then can be used to form
contour maps. Depending on the resulting contours,
an appropriate model can be used (i.e., dipole in a
sphere) to make inferences about source localiza-
tion. Great care must be taken to eliminate epochs
with a large amount of eye or head movement (An-
tervo et al., 1983).
Slow changes in the magnetic field with topo-
graphic variation have been recorded as much as
I s before foot (Antervo et al .. 1983) and complex
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Shielding
Yes
Yes
No
No
Stimulation or trigger
EMG. foot
EMG. foot. hand. finger. face
EMG. fingers
Keypress
Design
(order)
Ist
2nd
3rd
2nd
Magnetometer
(channels)
TABLE 2. Premotor fields
Number of
positions
15
30-90
=
7
Repetitions
70
?
>80
>64
Final
bandpass ( Hz)
0.03-30
0.1-10
0.03-15
0.1-20
Acquisition
ĮFreq (Hz), time (s)|
175.4
?. 2
85.3
7.5
Reference
Antervo et al. (1983)
Cheyne et al. (1989)
· Deecke et al. (1985)
Mizutani et al. (1989)
hand (Deecke et al., 1985) movements. The slow-
changing field preceding movement is designated
the "readiness field" (RF) or "bereitschaftsmagnet-
feld" (Deecke et al., 1985). There is also a large move-
ment-related response 90-130 ms after EMG onset
designated the "movement-evoked field" (MEF).
Cheyne et al. (1989) found systematic variations in
the location of the equivalent current dipole gen-
erators for both the RF and the MEF when face,
hand, index finger, and thumb movements were
studied. Their data are consistent with the motor
homunculus, although explicit MRI correlation is
lacking.
Advances in Evoked Magnetic Responses
Studies of evoked magnetic fields hold promise for
increasing our knowledge of cerebral sensorimotor,
and possibly cognitive, processes. Localization of
sources by MEG is probably less affected by volume
currents than localization based on EEG. In some
cases, underlying ambiguity of sources and their
orientation may be better evinced with MEG be-
cause of its sensitivity to tangentially (as opposed to
radially) oriented current sources. A problem with
many of the studies is that responses are sensitive to
changing cognitive states. The present direction of
these studies includes the measurement of responses
to more complex stimuli (i.e., oddball paradigms),
the comparison of evoked response information
with that obtained by imaging modalities, and the
incorporation of greater sophistication in source
modeling, as in modeling spatiotemporal sources, as
described by Scherg et al. (1989) and Baumgartner et
al. (1989). Future directions that seem appropriate
include (1) the development of larger. multiarray sys-
tems so that responses can be recorded simultane-
ously over the entire head, thus avoiding the unwant-
ed variation in cognitive state; (2) the development of
algorithms to utilize EEG and MEG information for
source localization; and (3) the use of more realistic
source and volume conductor models (i.e., based on
MRI data). The clinical utility of these advances
remains to be determined, but they clearly are of
importance in our understanding of the mechanisms
of brain function.
PRESURGICAL EVALUATION OF
EPILEPTIC PATIENTS
Although MEG has been used to study a rather
large number of epileptic patients worldwide, it is not
an established diagnostic tool. Furthermore, MEG
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currently does not influence the decision-making for
the surgical treatment of epilepsy. When larger sys-
tems with faster and more realistic methods of analy-
sis become available. the value of MEG may change
significantly in this respect.
VALIDATION OF MEG
The point localization of sources predicted by
MEG is unphysiological, so that the results cannot
be compared with the widespread discharging re-
gion identified on ECOG recording. Invasive tech-
niques such as depth or subdural electrode record-
ings are often used to validate the MEG and EEG
findings (Sato et al .. 1989). but spikes recorded with
these methods are different from the scalp-recorded
spikes in terms of amplitude, waveform, and distri-
bution, and they cannot be compared on a one-to-
one basis. Many small, independent spikes detected
by depth or subdural recording may not be detected
with the scalp-recorded EEG or MEG unless a wide
area of the cortex fires synchronously.
An alternative way of comparing these three meth-
ods is to compare the areas explored by each method.
ECOG delineates regions of epileptiform discharges
on the cortical surface (Ajmone-Marsan. 1986; Rose
et al., 1987a), whereas EEG and MEG may not easily
provide regional information. Assuming that each
spike represents a slightly different discharging re-
gion, analysis of many spikes will lead to an aggre-
gate of many points. which in turn leads to a region
(Sato et al., 1990). In this way. the discharging region
identified with ECOG can be compared with that
predicted by MEG.
FUTURE PERSPECTIVES IN
MEG RESEARCH
Although the MEG localization of sources. espe-
cially deep beneath the skull surface, is not as affected
by volume currents as a similar localization based on
EEG mapping, MEG may have some difficulty in
detecting deeper sources because of the quick decay
of magnetic fields. MEG studies need to be com-
pared with detailed EEG studies to assess the utility
of each. Validation of each of the techniques must be
performed in larger groups of patients treated sur-
gically or studied with invasive techniques to assess
the true utility of MEG.
A severe limitation of the currently available MEG
systems in their inability to record events over the
entire head simultaneously. This deficiency may
introduce additional error, because nonsimultane-
ous events must be combined for analysis.
Without doubt, MEG is an excellent experimental
tool but has yet to be proved a reliable clinical diag-
nostic methodology. Simultaneous EEG and MEG
recording is always done to ensure that comparable
signals at different locations are being compared;
however, this also precludes the optimal use of MEG
as an independent measurement. MEG technology
is evolving, however, and a recent report from Fin-
land (Tiihonen et al., 1990) describes a magnetometer
that has seven sensors and a scanning area 93 mm in
diameter. Furthermore, two 37-channel systems are
now commercially available, and many other re-
search institutes and commercial firms have ex-
pressed interest in producing even larger units to
scan the entire heald at once. It will be several more
years until the routine clinical utility of MEG is es-
tablished. Meanwhile, MEG and EEG will continue
to complement each other, and both together will
provide more information than either one alone.
Acknowledgment: The authors thank B. J. Hessie for edi-
torial assistance.
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Electroencephalography and clinical Neurophysiology, 1987, 67: 271-288
livevier Scientific Publishers Ireland, Ltd.
271
BEG 01898
EEG alpha map series: brain micro-states by space-oriented adaptive
segmentation 1
D. Lehmann, H. Ozaki 2 and I. Pal 3
Department of Neurology, University Hospital, 8091 Zurich (Switzerland)
(Accepted for publication: 18 December, 1986)
Summary
The spontaneous EEG, viewed as a series of momentary scalp field maps, shows stable map configurations (of
periodically reversed polarity) for varying durations, and discontinuous changes of the configurations. For adaptive segmentation of
map series into spatially stationary epochs, the maps at the times of maximal map relief are selected and spatially described by the
two locations of maximal and minimal (extreme) potentials: a segment ends if over time an extreme leaves its pre-sel spatial window.
Over 6 subjects, the resting alpha EEG showed 210 msec mean segment duration; segments longer than 323 msec covered 50% of the
total time; the most prominent segment class (1.5% of all classes) covered 20% of total time (prominence varied strongly over classes;
not all possible classes occurred). Spectral power and phase of averages of adaptive and pre-determined segments demonstrated the
adequacy of the strategy, and the homogeneity of adaptive segment classes by their reduced within-class variance. It is suggested that
different segment classes manifest different brain functional states exerting different effects on information processing. The spatially
stationary segments might be basic building blocks of brain information processing, possibly operationalizing consciousness time and
offering a common phenomenology for spontaneous activity and event-related potentials. The functional significance of segments
might be modes or steps of information processing or performance, tested, e.g., as reaction time.
Key words: Adaptive EEG segmentation; Spatial characteristics; Multichannel EEG segmentation: Alpha EEG momentary maps;
Spectral analysis Nyquist diagrams
The functional state of the brain as manifested
in the EEG determines the fate of information
which is processed while the state exists, for exam-
ple in wakefulness and sleep (see Koukkou and
Lehmann 1983). The functional state is con-
strained by several factors (Koukkou et al. 1980);
Supported in part by the Swiss National Science Foundation,
the Hartmann-Mueller Foundation and the EMDO Founda-
tion, Zurich.
2 Supported by Fellowships from the Swiss National Science
Foundation, the Hoffmann LaRoche Research Foundation,
Basel, and the Sleep and Dream Laboratory, Klinik am Zürich-
herg. Zurich. Home institution: Laboratory of Physiology for
the Handicapped, Ibaraki University. Mito 310, Japan.
'Supported by a Fellowship from the Swiss National Science
Foundation. Home institution: Computing Group, Sem-
melweis University, Budapest, Hungary.
Correspondence to: Dr. D. Lehmann, Neurology. University
Hospital, 8091 Zurich (Switzerland).
gross constraints are maturational stages (EEG:
Katada et al. 1981), periodic circadian and ultra-
dian processes (reaction time: Williams et al. 1966;
brain electrical responses: Halász et al. 1985), and
metabolic, drug. and disease conditions. The func-
tional state is re-adjusted continuously within the
constrained range in much shorter intervals for
optimal processing of the information which is
momentarily being treated (basically via the ori-
enting response, see Ohman 1979; Rohrbaugh
1984), and the functional state varies as sponta-
neous short-term fluctuations (see 'fluctuations of
attention' in Woodworth and Schlosberg 1954) in
the realm of seconds or less. Various relationships
between EEG data and short-term fluctuations of
perception, vigilance and brain electrical re-
sponses have been shown using single-channel
EEG data assessment (e.g., Lehmann et al. 1965;
Keesey and Nichols 1967; Bohdanecky et al. 1984)
0013.4649/X7/$03.50 ") 1987 filsevier'Scientific Publishers Ireland, Ltd.
Summary: P272 Good reference about extrema representing
different sources
Best of Article to much into Alphan but
Shows extrema
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272
and adaptive segmentation of single channel ELGs
(Gath et al. 1983, 1985).
The information in one EEG channel is a small
fraction of the entire EEG scalp field data. Data
from N electrodes can be combined into
1
N * (N - 1)/2
different EEG derivations (recording channels).
i.e. 120 different wave shapes can be produced
with 16 electrodes (Lehmann 1984; Lehmann et
al. 1986). Adaptive time segmentation of the EEG
into stationary epochs in the range of seconds has
used time-oriented approaches and typically
analyses data in one channel (Barlow et al. 1981;
Lopes da Silva 1981; Gath et al. 1983). Different
channels yield different segment boundaries. For
more than one channel, a combination of the
informations from the individually treated chan-
nels is proposed; up to 4 channels have been used
(Jansen et al. 1982; Barlow 4985; Creutzfeldt et al.
1985).
Conceptualizing functional states as global con-
ditions which involve the entire brain (Ashby 1960;
Koukkou and Lehmann 1983; Wright et al. 1985),
the scalp field ought to be considered as a whole.
Accordingly. for the identification of different
states, information from all locations ought to be
used with equal weight without pre-selecting a
sub-set of the available data. This can be achieved
by using the spatial configurations of the series of
momentary EEG field maps as unbiased informa-
tion for adaptive time segmentation of global brain
'states. The underlying rationale is as follows: dif-
ferent spatial configurations of the scalp field
maps must have been produced by the activity of
different neural generator populations (Sidman et
al. 1978; Grandori 1984), hence they are candi-
( dates for functionally different brain states. Iden-
tical field configurations, on the other hand. might
reflect the activity of the same neural generators
and therefore, of functionally similar states. Hence.
the task is to determine epochs of variable length
during which the configuration of the scalp field
maps is stationary. Given the periodic nature of
the spontaneous activity of neural populations
with their repetitive polarity reversals, only the
maps spatial configuration, not their polarity.
should be used as descriptor of the states.
D. LEHMANN ET A
To study the functional states in detail. the
present paper uses a method of adaptively seg.
menting EEG map series into time segments of
variable length and stationary spatial characteris.
tics. Since there is virtually no literature on the
micro-phenomenology of spontaneous alpha EEG
map series, the following section reviews some of
their basic properties which are the basis of seg.
mentation approaches.
Characteristics of alpha EEG map series. Fig. 1
shows an example of such a map series during two
alpha cycles. The maps are basically simple (Leh-
mann 1971, 1975) and tend to be concentric around
two extreme potential values, a maximal and_a
minimal, in some cases around 3 extrema. The
configuration of momentary maps is not depen-
dent on the chosen reference, only the voltage
values of the contour lines or colours of the con-
tour intervals depend on it. Aiming at spatial data
reduction and feature extraction, a map's basic
spatial characteristics can be given by the loca-
tions of the peak and trough potentials (the ex-
trema locations) as shown in Fig. 2. This 2-point
characterization of a map can be used with any
number of electrodes and is analogous to describ-
ing a potential field by one equivalent model
dipole. The characterization of a map by its ex-
trema locations implies that all recording points
are considered with equal weight, and that the
extracted descriptors do not depend on the choice
of the reference.
The accumulated extrema locations from a time
series of successive alpha EEG maps exhibit a
distinct spatial distribution (example Fig. 4B): the
extrema occur frequently in restricted scalp areas
at few electrodes, and infrequently at many other
electrodes (see also Fig. 9 in Lehmann 1971 and
Figs. 15 and 18 in Lehmann 1981). This map of
the occurrence of field extrema over time is, as
expected (Lehmann 1984; Lehmann et al. 1986).
very similar to the map of spectral power of the
EEG wave forms during the same analysis epoch
if the average reference is
used (Fig. 4C). The
unequal spatial distribution of the extrema loca-
tions over time is the consequence of the tendency
of extreme values, and thus of map configurations.
to change quickly in a non-continuous, jump-like
manner to different configurations (Lehmann
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Spatial
fritt migo
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ADAPTIVE MULTICHANNEL EEG SEGMENTS VIA MAP CRITERIA
171
1208
1290
129,*
1294
1205
1297
1290
1000
1301
1302
*
1301
1304
: 305
1305
--
: 307
1305
1 309
13:0
*
1311
1312
1313
Fig. 1. Series of momentary isopotential tontour maps of the scalp field distributions recorded from 16 electrodes during two cycles
of alpha activity (epoch 'A' in Fig. 7) covering 211 msec. Maps at intervals of 7.8 msec (128 maps/sec), numbered consecutively.
White positive, hatched negative relative to average reference; isopotential contour lines in steps of 10 AV; head seen from rear. left
ear left, electrode array see schematic; most anterior electrode at Cz, most posterior 0.5 cm above inion at about equidistances.
Asterisks mark the 4 maps of maximal relief (maximal global field power); see also Fig. 3. Note that polarity reverses for successive
maps of maximal global field power, but that their spatial configuration remains stable. Fig. 2 (below) displays the major spatial
characteristics of this map series.
Fig. 2. Feature extraction of the major spatial characteristics of
the map series in Fig. 1. The configuration of each map is
characterized by the location's of the positive and negative
extreme potential values which are indicated by dots and
connected by a line. Maps at times of maximal global field
power marked by asterisks. Note that the configurations of the
maps remain stable for several successive maps around the
times of maximal global field power (see also Fig. 3). and
change stepwise during times of low field power.
1971, 1981, 1984). The momentary maps show no
wave fronts and their major characteristics do not
propagate or travel continuously over large field
distances (Lehmann 1971, 1981).
The series of maps in Fig. 1 illustrates that
twice during a spontaneous alpha cycle there are
large differences between the potentials at the
most positive and the most negative locations. as
indicated by a larger number of isopotential lines;
and that at two other times, the maps tend to be
flat with few isopotential lines (Lehmann 1971).
Using the values at all electrodes, the degree of
relief or hilliness in a map can be assessed numeri-
cally by the 'hilliness index' (Lehmann 1971) or
the directly related measure 'global field power'
(Lehmann and Skrandies 1980); these are refer-
ence-independent.
Global field power (formula 1 in Appendix) of
the data shown in Fig. 1 is plotted as a function of
time in Fig. 3. For the alpha band, global field
power typically shows maximal values about every
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D. LEHMANN ET AL
GLOBAL FIELD POWER
¥
*
2
1
1 -
0
GLOBAL DISSIMILARITY
6
4
2 -
-
0
1286
1293
1300
1307 MAP NO
-O
100
MSEC 200
Fig. 3. Global field power per map and global dissimilarity of
successive maps of the 211 msec map series of two cycles of
alpha activity shown in Figs. 1 and 2. Times of maximal global
field power marked by asterisks. Note longer periods of low
dissimilarity, i.e., stability of the spatial configurations of the
maps during times of high global field power, and shorter
periods of changes of map configurations during low field
power. Vertical scales in arbitrary units. Map numbering corre-
sponds to Fig. 1.
50 msec (Fig. 3; see also Fig. 7, bottom). The time
between two maxima of global field power corre-
>ponds to a half-wave of conventional voltage
wave form records (see also Fig. 1), since there is
one maximal and one minimal value of global
field power for each half cycle of a rhythmic brain
activity (Lehmann 1971). Global field power is a
one-number statement for all electrodes, and the
actual location of the map's peak or trough is
unimportant for the detection of the 20/sec max-
ima of global field power during 10/sec alpha
activity.
In the most basic case the maps at successive
times of maximal field power during an alpha
cycle are similar in configuration, but reversed in
polarity (cf., the maps marked with asterisks in
Fig. 1). It will be seen that in other cases there is a
change of map configuration between two succes-
sive times of maximal field power.
The difference in spatial configuration between
maps can be assessed by the one-number measure
(formula 2 in Appendix) of 'global dissimilarity"
(Lehmann and Skrandies 1980). Used on succes-
sive pairs of maps, global dissimilarity as a func-
tion of time indicates periods of stability and
instability of map configurations.
Fig. 4A and B illustrate that the map configura-
tions do not change continuously from map to
map, but rather change stepwise, being stable for
relatively long times. Figs. 1 and 3 illustrate that
stable configurations are typically seen during
times of high global field power, and that changes
to new map configurations, which are manifest as
high values of global dissimilarity, occur quickly.
typically during times of low global field power
(Lehmann 1971, 1981; Lehmann et al. 1986).
Accordingly, exclusive sampling of extrema lo-
cations (data reduction in space via feature extrac-
A
B
<
*
C
Fig. 4. Mapping of digitally band passed 8-12 Hz alpha activity
during an epoch of 24 sec duration. A: (map of the spatial
distribution of the extrema locations (positive and negative in
each map) accumulated from the 461 maps at the times of
maximal global field power during the epoch. B: map of the
spatial distribution of the extreme potential locations accu-
mulated from all momentary maps (128/sec: 3072 maps) dur-
ing the epoch. C: map of the spatial distribution of the spectral
hand power density of the ERG wave forms vs. the average
reference during the epoch. High values black, medium values
hatched, low values white. Contour lines connect interpolated
equal values of occurrence frequency or spectral band power.
Crosses tire electrixle locations. Note the similarity of the three
maps.
1
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ADAPTIVE MULTICHANNEL BEG SEGMENTS VIA MAP CRITERIA
275
tion) only at the moments of maximal global field
power (data reduction in time) is expected to be
representative of the entire epoch under study.
This is supported by the similarity of the maps
obtained with extrema locations from all sampling
times, with extrema locations from only the times
of maximal global field power, and with values
from all locations at all times, as shown in Fig.
4A,B and C (see also later Fig. 11). Exclusive
sampling at times of maximal field power has the
additional advantage that extrema determination
in these maps with high relief will be less vulner-
able to noise than in maps with low relief.
The example of Fig. 5 shows a series of mo-
mentary maps selected at successive times of max-
imal global field power during spontaneous activ-
ity. In each map, the locations of the most positive
and most negative potentials are marked. Obvi-
ously, these locations remain in restricted areas for
several reversals of field polarity. This illustrates
how the maps at times of maximal global field
power tend to spatially stable configurations over
successive alpha half cycles: after a quick change
to a new map configuration, the maps again tend
to be stable for several half cycles (see also Leh-
mann 1971, 1984). The segmentation procedure
1270
1275
1283
1289
1296
:302
53
1310
1317
1324
1331
:337
: 345
1351
: : 60
:356
1372
:376
: 385
........
54
1394
INC2
1409
1416
1422
1929
55
1437
1451
1458
1456
1:73
56
57
Fig. 5. Adaptive segmentation of a series of momentary scalp field maps covering 1585 msec of alpha activity (epoch 'B' of Fig. 7)
recorded from 16 electrodes. The maps at successive times of maximal global field power are used. Average time between maps is 54.7
msec; numbers identify original sampling time points (128/sec): white positive, hatched negative relative to average reference;
isopotential contour lines in steps of 10 pV. In each map. the locations of the maximal and minimal potentials are marked by dots
and connected by a line. A 4-electrode square window is used for segmentation (see text). Segment terminations are marked by
vertical arrows and the segment numbers correspond to those in Fig. 7. See Fig. 8 for maps of the segment classes.
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276
used in this paper is designed to identify these
brief epochs of stability. It is hoped that the
results clarify the micro-phenomenology of the
EEG.
Methods
EEG data were obtained as 16-channel records
from 6 normal, unselected, right-handed. male
volunteers between 25 and 35 years of age. Grass
gold cup electrodes were placed with Grass EC-2
cream at about equidistant spacing over an area
between the vertex and 0.5 cm above the inion,
using the array schematic shown in Fig. 6. Using
one of the electrodes as common reference, the
spontaneous EEG was recorded from the comfort-
ably seated subjects in a sound-shielded chamber.
After 5-8 min of adaptation to the recording
surrounds. ADC started 30 sec after the request to
close the eyes. After anti-alias filtering. the data
were sampled for 2 min at 128 samples/sec, and
digitally filtered off-line using a finite impulse-re-
sponse linear phase filter (McClellan et al. 1973)
with a bandpass of 8.6-11.6 Hz (3 dB points; 20
dB down at 7 and 13 Hz). The data were refor-
matted into series of momentary voltage maps for
further analysis. For display and comparisons, the
maps were recomputed vs. the average reference.
Segmentation
Global field power was computed for each map
and examined over time. The maps at all time
points of maximal global field power were selected
and only these were used for segmentation. In
these maps the locations of the positive and the
negative field extreme potentials were determined.
A segment was accepted to continue as long as the
A
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8 1
1
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Fig. 6. Schematic of the array of electrodes (numbered). Head
seen from rear, most anterior electrode at Cz, most posterior
0.5 cm above inion, about equal inter-electrode distances.
D. LEHMANN ET AL.
extrema of successive maps remained in the two
spatial window areas which are defined by the
locations of the extrema in the first maps of the
segment. We used spatial windows consisting of a
square array of 4 electrodes (but a segment might
terminate without extrema having occurred at all 4
electrodes). The electrode where the extreme oc-
curred in the first map of a segment is the initial
location. If. in a subsequent map, an extreme
occurs at a neighbor electrode in the transverse or
sagittal direction, the window is defined in the
respective direction, and if it occurs at a diagonal
neighbor electrode, the window is defined in both
directions. If an extreme occurs outside of the
window, or farther away from the initial location
than one electrode distance, the segment is
terminated, and both windows are reset for the
next segment. It is possible that the two windows
of a segment overlap partially.
As an example, let one extreme in the first map
occur at electrode 10 in Fig. 6. If in a subsequent
map an extreme occurs at electrode 4 (or 6; or 15),
the square window is completely defined. com-
prising electrodes 4, 5, 9 and 10 (or 5, 6, 10 and
11; or 10, 11, 14 and 15). If, after the initial
location, the extreme occurs at electrodes 5 or 9 or
11 or 14, the window is defined in only one
direction, and complete definition requires an ad-
ditional occurrence location (if the extreme oc-
curred at electrode 9 and 14,
the window would
consist of only 3 electrodes)
As long as subse-
quent extremes occur within the set window, the
segment continues, unless the other extreme left
its window. An example of
the application of
these rules to a sequence of momentary maps at
successive times of maximal global field power is
shown in Fig. 5.
The class to which a segment belongs is defined
by the two electrode locations (one in each spatial
window) with the highest occurrence frequencies
of extrema over all analyzed maps of the segment.
Following the above-described window definition.
120 different segment classes ate theoretically pos-
sible for our 16-electrode array. If a tie of occur-
rence frequencies existed between electrodes within
a window area, i.e., if 2 or even 3 electrodes in the
window had the same frequency of extreme occur-
rence during the segment's duration, then the
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ADAPTIVE MULTICHANNEL EEG SEGMENTS VIA MAP CRITERIA
higher sum of the global field power values of the
momentary maps out of which the extrema were
collected would decide the electrode which de-
fined the segment class.
Results
A sample of adaptive segmentation of an alpha
bandpassed recording of several seconds is il-
lustrated in Fig. 7, where the segment boundaries
are drawn into the EEG wave shapes (recomputed
vs. the average reference) during the first 8 sec of
the recording of one of the subjects. The unequal
durations of the segments are evident. The seg-
ments which were found during the 4.7 sec epoch
'C' of the wave shapes of Fig. 7 are illustrated in
Fig. 8. This figure gives for each segment an
interpolated map of the accumulated extrema of
all momentary maps at maximal field power times
during the segment (these maps of extrema occur-
rence are of the same type as those in Fig. 4A and
B). Fig. 8 shows that, in most segments, there is a
very clear preponderance of the extreme occur-
rence at one of the 3 or 4 electrodes in the spatial
C
8
1
V
2
V
w-
1
3
vi-
A
M
€
10
5
6
V
8
V
9
win 10
N
w 12
V
11, 13
VI
1.15
16
A
GLOBAL FIELD POWER
.
43
44
49 50
53
54
55 56
58 59 60 61 63 64
65
66 6B
70
72
SEGMENT Nr. -
I SEC
-
Fig. 7. Wave shapes vs. the average reference recorded during 8 sec in 16 channels (electrode array of Fig. 6) and digitally filtered to
8-12 Hz. Vertical distance between zero lines of successive channels is 90 uV. Bottom trace shows global field power. Vertical lines
show the adaptively determined segment boundaries; segment numbers at bottom correspond to the numbers in Figs. 5 and 8. Epoch
'A' was used for Figs. 1, 2 and 3, 'B' for Fig. 5, and 'C' for Fig. 8.
4
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4
7
V
1
#

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D). LEHMANN ET AL.
3
45
.
4 6
47
48
49
7
2
3
10
6
50
51
52
53
54
-
5
4
3
4
5
---
55
56
57
58
59
6
4
2
5
12
-
60
61
62
63
64
Fig. 8. Maps of occurrence of extreme potential values during the successive segments of the 4.7 sec epoch
¡C' in Fig. 7. During each
adaptively determined segment. the momentary maps at all times of maximal global field power were searched for the locations of the
two extreme potentials; these locations were accumulated and linearly interpolated between electrodes to construct the present maps.
(The number of iso-frequency-of-occurrence lines therefore is related to the number of times of maximal global field power.) The
figure to the left below each map is the segment number used in Fig. 7. The figure to the right above each map is the number of times
of maximal global field power during the segment; since maximal global field power occurs at about 50 msec intervals, the upper
right figure multiplied by 50 indicates segment duration in msec.
window, even for relatively long segments. Only
segments 49. 51 and 62 showed equal occurrence
at 2 electrodes within a window, and had to be
classed considering the summed field power val-
ues. There is no obvious rule of sequence for the
different segment classes in Fig. 8. The successive
segment classes are very different in spatial char-
acteristics, e.g. the series of 10 'anterior left to
posterior right' oriented map configurations of
segment 53 in Fig. 8 is followed by the 6 'anterior
right to posterior left' configurations of the next
segment, which is followed by the 'anterior mid-
line to posterior right' segment 55 and then by the
`posterior temporal right to posterior left' oriented
segment 56.
Table I gives an overview of the major features
of the segments for the individual subjects and the
means for the sample population. On the average
over subjects the segments' mean duration was
210 msec. The distribution of total time covered
by segments of increasing duration was strongl;
skewed (Fig. 9): over subjects, about 70% of the
total time was covered by segments of 210 msec
duration or longer. 50% of total time by segments
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.
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TABLE I
Numerical characteristics of alpha band segments of 2 min analysis epochs in each of 6 subjects. Entries for individual subjects were
rounded if greater than 3; means and standard deviations over subjects were computed before rounding.
Subject no.
Mcan (n = 6)
S.D.
1
2
3
4
5
6
(A) All segments during the analysed epoch of 2 min
Duration of segments.
mean (msec)
238
201
225
259
223
117
210
50
50% of total time was
covered by segments
longer than (msec)
389
310
336
387
360
155
323
88
25% of total time was
covered by segments
longer than (msec)
610
487
$38
619
$55
237
508
141
Number of segment
classes in 2 min
52
65
60
45
53
85
60
14
Number of segments/min
252
298
268
232
270
516
305
104
Number of segments/
class/min
5
5
4
5
5
6
5.0
0.6
(B) Segments of the class which covered maximal total time of all classes
Duration, mean (msec)
471
329
337
403
377
152
345
108
% time covered
28
16
15
26
28
8
20.2
8.4
% of all segments
14
10
10
17
16
7
12.3
3.9
Number of segments/min
36
29
28
39
44
34
34.6
6.2
(C) Segments of the class covering second to maximal total time of all classes
Duration, mean (msec)
307
243
265
258
331
192
266
49
% time covered
9
12
13
16
7
11,3
3.1
% of all segments
7
10
11
11
11
4
9.0
2.9
Number of segments/min
17
30
31
26
29
21
25.7
5.6
(D) Segments which lasted longer than 600 msec
Duration, mean (msec)
852
834
831
848
..
933
609
817
109
% time covered
27
19
19
26
19
0.5
18.4
9.5
% of all segments
8
5
5
8
5
0.1
5.2
2.9
Number of segments/min
19
14
14
19
13
0.5
12.9
6.7
Number of segments/
class/min
1.7
1.5
1.2
1.6
2.1
0.5
1.4
0.5
The segments belonged
to how many classes
11
9
11
11
6
1
8.2
4.0
or, % of all classes
11
14
18
24
11
1.2
13.2
7.6
Of these segments over
600 msec, how many were
over 1000 msec?/min
4
3
2
3
2
0
2.2
1.2
Longest segment (msec)
1910
1328
1638
1492
2656
609
1 605
675
longer than 323 msec, and 25% by those longer
than 508 msec. In all 6 subjects, only about 50% of
the theoretically possible 120 different segment
classes were actually found during the analyzed 2
min records. (With increased analysis time there is
an expected, but levelling-off, increase in the num-
ber of classes, e.g., in subject no. 1: 28 classes in
30 sec, 47 in 60 sec and 52 in 120 sec.) In addition.
the different segment classes showed very differ-
ent frequencies of occurrence. On average, there
were 5 segments/class/min, but the frequencies
varied greatly: the segment class which covered
most total time per subject ('most prominent'
class, Table IB) occurred about 35 times/min, and
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10
5 -
0
0
500
1000
msec 1500
Fig. 9 Total & time (vertical) covered by segments of different
durations ( horizontal). Mean and S.E. over the 6 subjects.
the class which covered the next most time (Table
IC) occurred about 26 times/min. These two most
prominent classes also had significantly increased
mean segment durations over subjects (paired
Wilcoxon P smaller than 0.025). longer by more
than 50% and 25%, respectively. than the average
segment duration. However, long segments over
600 msec. which constituted only 5% of all seg-
ments. belonged to many different classes (Table
ID) and showed an average occurrence per class
of only 1.5 segments/class/min.
The most prominent segment class on the aver-
age over subjects covered about 20% of the total
time with only about 12% of all segments, and the
two most prominent classes together covered over
30% of the time with 21% of all segments. The
classes which covered most time (Fig. 10) in sub-
jects 1 through 5 were quite similar, belonging to
the 'anterior left (or midline) to posterior right'
type. which reflects the frequent right hemisphere
alpha dominance: only subject 6 and a most
prominent class of the 'anterior midline to pos-
terior left' type. Fig. 10 shows also that the classes
which covered the second most total time differed
more between subjects. In all but subject 4. the
longest segment belonged to one of the two most
prominent classes.
Our segment class definition makes it possible
that successive segments might belong to the same
class. This, however, occurred only 28 times
(0.05%) among the 3666 segment boundaries found
in the present entire material.
The segment boundaries in our procedure might
depend on the starting point of the analysis, since
SEGMENT CLASS WHICH COVERTO MAMMAL TOTAL TIME
SEGMENT CLASS WHICH COVERED SECOND LO VALIMAL TOTAL TILE
1
SUBJECT 1
Fig. 10. Schematic of segment classes which covered most time
(upper row) and second most time (lower row) in the record of
each subject.
the first occurrence of an extreme outside the
initial location decides the location of the window.
This problem is not serious, since the segmenta-
tion becomes unambiguous after the first boundary
which is caused by a change of an extreme loca-
tion by more than one electrode, an event which
occurs very frequently, in the present material in
nearly 40% of the segments.
Validation
For feature extraction and segmentation, we
applied a data reduction in time by selecting the
maps at the times of maximal global field power,
and in space by selecting the two extrema loca-
tions in each map as crucial features. This char-
acterization of the segments by two extrema omits
map characteristics of secondary strength. We ex-
amined the possible importance of the omitted
information by comparing the two-extrema de-
scription of adaptively determined segments with
power maps of the same segments computed from
all originally available data. We also tested whether
adaptive segmentation which is based on the re-
duced data set successfully leads to reduced vari-
ance over time and increased variance over space.
i.e., to more stationary and more pronounced
average map relief than pre-determined segmenta-
tion.
Fourier transforms of the complete data sets of
adaptively determined segments were computed.
Epoch length for transformation was 594 msec,
covering 76 data points; a 1/10 cosine taper
window preceded FFT, and the spectra were 3-
point-smoothed (1/4, 1/2, 1/4). Power was com-
puted vs. the average reference, i.e .. using spatial
DC rejection, a meaningful and physiologically
interpretable way to examine local variance of
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field potentials over time (Fig. 4B; see also Leh-
mann 1971. 1984; Walter et al. 1984; Bertrand et
al. 1985; Lehmann et al. 1986). Fig. 11 shows
maps of the 10.1 Hz spectral power of the wave
shapes of the adaptively determined segments.
These power maps of the complete data set are
compared with our 2-location descriptions of the
same data.
The power maps vs. the average reference of
the individual adaptively determined segments are
very similar within a given class and reflect their
respective classes well (Fig. 11A and B), while
those of the pre-determined fixed-length consecu-
tive segments (Fig. 11C) differ considerably one
from another. However, even though mean maps
of spectral band power of wave shapes of longer
data epochs (example Fig. 4C) almost always show
3 spatial peaks of power, very short, pre-de-
termined segments such as in Fig. 11C sometimes
have only two spatial peaks of power, probably
because much of the short analysis epoch is
covered by one class of adaptively determined
segments. The example of averaged sine-cosine
vector diagrams (Lehmann et al. 1986) in Fig. 12
illustrates that the variance of phase angles he-
tween different electrodes over segments is much
smaller (size of circles around electrode entries)
for adaptively determined than for pre-determined
segments. The adaptively segmented data in these
vector diagrams also show a more distinct config-
uration of the entries, with two electrodes clearly
at the extreme positions (in Fig. 12A: electrodes
16 and 4. and Fig. 12B: electrodes 16 and 2) and
thus showing maximal power of the wave shapes
over time, whereas in the pre-determined segment
averages, several electrodes are close to the ex-
treme positions and show overlapping standard
deviations, indicating a less distinct spatial distri-
bution of spectral power computed over time.
When comparing adaptively determined seg-
ments (Table IIA) and predetermined segments
(Table IIB and C). there are 3 expectations if one
A
1
A
1
1
.
B
A
A
A
1
C
1
A
<
A
1
Fig. 11. Iso-power contour maps of the 10.1 Hz point of the Fourier-transformed wave shapes vs. the average reference of data
segments of 594 msec duration, from one subject. A: power maps of 5 adaptively determined segments of class 'a' (schematic on the
right). B: power maps of 5 adaptively determined segments of class " b. C: power maps of the first 5 successive pre-determined
segments of the epoch used in Table NIC. High power stippled, low power white; iso-power contours in equal steps. Note consistency
of spatial configuration of power maps of adaptively determined segments and their agreement with the schematic (segment class).
and inconsistency between pre-determined segments.
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D. LEHMANN ET AL.
A
B
16:
16
N - 5
N-6
C
D
14
..
:
N- 6
N-58
Fig. 12. Sine-cosine vector diagrams (Nyquist diagrams) of the 10.1 Hz point of 16-channel wave shapes. Fourier-transformed in
segments of 594 msec duration and averaged over N epochs using the best fit rotation method (Lehmann et al. 1986). Cosine
coefficient horizontal, sine coefficient vertical. Numbers of entries indicate electrode positions (see Fig. 6); heavy numbers mark
electrodes with maximal power in A and B. Circles give the standard deviation of the entries. The center of the diagram is the average
reference point, the mean of all entries. A: 5 adaptively determined segments of class 'a' were averaged. B: 6| adaptively determined
segments of class 'b' averaged. C: 6 successive, pre-determined segments were averaged. D: average of the first 58 successive
pre-determined segments of a continuous recording. Note larger standard deviations around average values of pre-determined
segments than adaptively determined segments.
considers all sampling points in time and space:
(1) Within a given class of adaptively determined
segments, the variance of the configuration of
maps of spectral band power of EEG wave shapes
(Table II. column 5) should be minimal over seg-
ments (even though they occur non-consecutively).
and it should be smaller than the variance of
power map configurations over successive, pre-de-
termined segments. (2) It follows from this that
the relief of the mean power map over the power
maps of several segments (Table II, column 3)
should be more pronounced for adaptively de-
termined segments of a given class than for pre-
determined segments. (3) It also follows that for
adaptively determined segments the mean value of
relief of the power maps of all segments of a class
(Table II, column 4) ideally should be similar to
the relief value of the mean power map of the
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TABLE IL
Characteristics of configurations of maps of the 10.1 Hz spectral power of the wave shapes of data epoche (segments of $99 meer
duration, from the 2 min recording of one subject. The maps were normalized for unity relief magnitude in order to Excus on map
configuration. (A) Mean power maps of all adaptively determined segments which belonged to the 4 classes of segments with three or
more segments of 594 or more msee duration during the recording time. (B) Mean power maps of 4 groups (No choses to match NS
in A) of segments which were randomly selected from the 58 consecutive, pre-determined segments in C. (C) Mean power nap of the
first 58 pre-determined segments of the recording. The computation of map relief and dissimilarity was done after formule (1) and
(2) in the text.
(1) Class/group
of segments
(2) Segments (N)
(3) Relief
(4) Mean relief
(5) Dissimilarity
between the individual
of the mean map
of the reliefs
of the N maps
of the N maps
maps which contributed
to the mear. map
(A) Mean 10.1 H: power maps of 4 different classes of adaptively determined segments
1.
N = 5
0.259
0.262
0.108
2.
N = 6
0,249
0.262
0.105
3.
N= 3
0.232
0.236
0.04S
4.
N= 3
0,282
0.299
0.087
Average
(N = 4)
0.256 * * *
0.265 + ++
0.087
(S.D.)
(0.0209)
(0.0259)
(0.0276)
(B) Mean 10.1 He power maps of - groups (Ns matched to data in A) of pre-determined segments which were rundordy selected from C
1.
N = 5
0,165
0.250
0.206
2.
N = 6
0.196
0.272
0.19)
3.
N = 3
0.187
0.229
0.139
4.
N = 3
0.168
0.258
0.171
Average
(N = 4)
0.179 * * *
0.252 +++
0.177 ***
(S.D.)
(0.0149)
(0.0179)
(0.0288)
(C) Mean 10.1 H= power map of 58 consecutive, pre-determined segments
1.
N = 58
0.159
0.258 ***
0.201
(S.D.)
(N=1)
0.159 * * *
0.201 * * *
(S.D.)
(0)
(0)
The average relief and dissimilarity values of class mean maps of adaptively determined segments (A) are significantly different
from the corresponding values of the randomly selected pre-determined segments (B) and from those of all S& pre-determined
segments (C). with all { test P levels smaller than 0.005 (non-pooled variances, df = 6 and df = 3. respectively ).
The difference between the relief of the mean map (column 3) and the mean relief of all N maps (column 4) is significantly
smaller for the adaptively determined segments (A) than for the pre-determined segments (B) and (C); both / test P values (A vs. B
and A vs. C) were smaller than 0.005 (non-pooled variances, df = 6 and df = 3. respectively).
class, while for pre-determined segments, value
differences are expected, since the mean map will
be averaged from individual maps with different
configurations and hence is expected to tend to a
flatter 'landscape.' The data in Table II include all
adaptively determined segments, from one arbi-
trarily selected subject, which were 594 msec or
longer and belonged to segment classes which
occurred at least 3 times; also included in Table II
are size-matched sets of pre-determined segments
as controls. Table Il shows that all 3 expectations
are met. In summary, the maps of adaptively
determined segments show significantly more dis-
tinct spatial characteristics than those of pre-de-
termined segments.
The results in Table Il were computed from the
complete data sets. i.e., from all sampling time
points and from all locations, but used the rarified
data set as criterion for adaptive segmentation.
Therefore, these results support the notion that
the description of the maps at maximal field power
times by the peak and trough locations permits
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recognition of the boundaries of spatially sta-
tionary data epochs.
. Even though conventional averaging of pre-de-
termined segments results in flattened average
maps of power, it obviously does not produce
structureless power maps. There is still apprecia-
ble variance of band power over space (Table NIC)
as can also be seen in the now popular power-
mapping systems. This is explained by the relative
preponderance of occurrence of few preferred field
classes: most frequent are right-posterior-to-ante-
rior types, to a lesser degree left-posterior-to-ante-
rior types (Figs. 4 and 10; see also Lehmann 1971
Fig. 9, 1981 Fig. 18).
Using alpha bandpassed white noise (random
over space and time) as input to the segmentation,
the mean segment duration (109 msec, S.D. = 76
msec, 1098 segments/2 min) was significantly
shorter ({ test, P < 0.005) than the mean segment
duration obtained in our subjects (210 msec). The
white noise segments were even significantly
shorter (P < 0.025) than those of subject 6 who
showed the shortest mean duration. Contrary to
the real data, all possible 120 classes occurred in
the white noise segmentation and. as expected. the
white noise data showed a uniform distribution of
extrema over space.
Discussion
The adaptively determined segments of the map
series belong to different classes as defined by
their spatial characteristics ('landscapes'). There
appears to be no obvious, simple rule for the
succession of the different segment classes in the
results in Fig. 8 and in other examined examples
of segment sequences, but comprehensive studies
still need to be done. However, from a psycho-
physiological viewpoint we do not expect sys-
tematic sequences since we hypothesize that the
different micro states or segment classes are in-
stalled by the brain as a consequence of the type
and content of the information which is momen-
tarily treated (see Koukkou and Lehmann 1983).
From this viewpoint, a crucial factor for the pre-
diction of the next state is the individual-specific
importance of the momentarily treated informa-
tion.
Interesting formal aspects of state changes are
offered by Wright et al. (1985) who discuss non-
linear transitions between linear states, and by
Haken's (1983, p. 264) approach of synergetics.
which shows that changing a control parameter
causes self-organizing systems to pass through
several instabilities, i.e. to form a hierarchy of
spatial patterns, and that different patterns occur
after each identical parameter change. suggesting
that different sequences of brain micro states are
triggered by identical single input events.
We used time- and spade-reduced data for the
segmentation of the EEG map series. Segment
boundaries of spatially reduced (feature-extracted)
and non-reduced data can be compared systemati-
cally by using global dissimilarity (formula 2 in
Appendix) on segment series of complete maps.
employing voltage ranks instead of absolute volt-
ages to concentrate on configuration and to avoid
effects of magnitude: global dissimilarity is com-
puted for successive pairs of maps at times of
maximal field power: each dissimilarity computa-
tion is done twice, using the two maps as they are.
and using one map reversed in polarity (equivalent
to rectification); the lower of the two dissimilarity
values is accepted, since no assumptions are made
about the succession of configurations; after 3-
point smoothing to repress spurious effects, time
points of maximal values in the curve of dissimi-
larity between successive maps are accepted as
segment boundaries. Agreement between this
global dissimilarity procedure and our extrema-lo-
cation method can be tested with the chi-square
statistic for comparing two!
simultaneous neural
spike trains (Gerstein et al. 1978). For instance.
the data in Fig. 8 which consist of 90 maps at
maximal global field power
times yielded 17 seg-
ment boundaries with the dissimilarity procedure
and 19 boundaries with the extrema-location
method: 9 coincided at identical time points:
goodness of correspondence of the segment
boundaries was significant with x = = 12.75. df = 1.
P < 0.001.
Non-linearly interpolated map values (e.g.
Ashida et al. 1979: Coppola et al. 1982) would
offer the possibility to use locations of extrema
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285
which are not restricted to electrode positions; in
this case, circular spatial windows of finely graded
magnitude could be used, but a very large number
of possible segment classes would result, which
would require clustering procedures even for a
first survey of results. Physiologically meaningful
sizes of the spatial windows might be derived from
knowledge about the spatial frequencies which
exist in momentary maps (but at present no such
systematic knowledge is available).
In our spatial approach to adaptive segmenta-
tion as well as in other, time-oriented, approaches.
the periodic polarity reversals of the electrical
fields are accepted as a basic property of a stable
brain state. The functional significance of these
EEG polarity reversals is still unclear; only a
small effect on reaction time is known (Callaway
1962; Dustman and Beck 1965). It might neverthe-
less be hypothesized that similar brain field con-
figurations of reversed polarity are produced by
spatially different neural populations, and hence
might show unequal spatial voltage gradients. We
tested this in one of our subjects, examining the
maps at the times of maximal global field power
of the 6 segment classes which each had more than
13 such maps: the segment class with the largest
number of cases had 93 maps. There was no
significant difference of the gradient magnitude
between maps of opposite polarity in any of the 6
classes. This supports the concept that a segment
is represented by a spatially stable generator pro-
cess of periodically reversing polarity.
This paper reports alpha bandpassed data from
awake subjects who showed appreciable alpha
power during the analysis time. Full band adap-
tive segmentation produced related but, ex-
pectedly, not identical results. Global field power
curves for full band are somewhat more noisy,
with occasional dominant waves slower than
20/sec (examples in Lehmann 1971). For adaptive
segmentation of full band multichannel EEG data
from grossly different states such as sleep and
wakefulness one might employ a two step ap-
proach: first, a time-oriented procedure to seg-
ment adaptively the single, global field power
curve of the multichannel data into temporally
stationary segments in the range of seconds; and
secondly. our space-oriented procedure for adap-
tive segmentation of these larger *frequency-de-
fined' segments into spatially defined micro states.
The minimal segment duration in our space-
based procedure is about a half wave of dominant
temporal frequency of the conventional wave
shapes (about 50 msec for alpha rhythm) and thus
is considerably shorter than in time-oriented adap-
tive segmentations where minimal times of about
a second or more are required (e.g., Creutzfeldt et
al. 1985). In addition, and contrary to time-ori-
ented segmentations, the space-oriented procedure
can classify a momentary single-map state. (Either
the momentary map or the map at the time of the
closest maximal value of the global field power
curve might be used.) This possibility to classify
momentary single maps might permit the recogni-
tion of brief state discontinuities such as epileptic
events whose momentary spatial maps (Lehmann
1972) differ greatly from normal map configura-
tions.
The functional significance of the segment
classes cannot be deduced from their formal
aspects. Viewing a segment as a manifestation of
an ongoing brain processing step or processing
mode, one might speculate that the duration of
individual 'thought packages' or 'atoms of mind'
are indicated by segment durations. Possibly. the
putative time for conscious experience (Libet 1982)
may be operationalized for spontaneous thoughts ..
by EEG segmentation. It is conceptually im-
portant that about 25% of the analysis time in our
data was covered by segments which lasted longer
than 500 msec; this is the minimal duration of
stimulation for conscious experience if stimuli are
applied at an intensity. below which no sensation
at all is possible (Libet 1982). Related time spans
have been reported for switching of attention
(Reeves and Sperling 1986: 400 msec). for effec-
tive times of leading visual masks (DiLollo 1980.
Fig. 7: over 160 msec), and for maximal inter-
stimulus intervals compatible with continuous
stereo percepts (W. Skrandies, pers. commun .: 250
msec) and with backward masking of visual targets
(Michaels and Turvey 1979, Fig. 13: over 200
msec). This also suggests that functions which are
manifest in early components of evoked potentials
might not qualify for conscious experience be-
cause of their short durations.
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The idealistic goal of adaptive time segmen-
tation of brain electrical fields is the recognition
of homogeneous basic building blocks of brain
information processing. the micro states which
constitute the 'atoms' of brain activity. The mo-
mentary brain micro state as global entity is con-
ceived to consist of the states of the numerous
parallel, automatic brain processes and of the
state of the brain's limited capacity channel of
controlled processing (consciousness). Mode of in-
formation processing (possibly related to 'carrier'
and including 'housekeeping' conditions), step of
information processing and information content.
however. have to be considered in such concepts.
since expectedly all of these are manifest in the
momentary brain electrical field. This expectation
can be extrapolated from studies which examined
EEG epochs in the range of a few seconds and
reported different EEG characteristics for many
psychological measures (e.g., Berkhout et al. 1969:
Koukkou and Lehmann 1976: Antrobus 1978:
Ehrlichman and Wiener 1980: Lehmann et al.
1981). even though very few measures were ex-
amined in any one given study.
We would like to propose the adaptively de-
termined segments of stationary spatial character
as a unifying concept for event-related and spon-
taneous EEG analysis. Space-oriented adaptive
segmentation of event-related potential data as a
polarity-considering version (Lehmann and
Skrandies 1984) of the present strategy has been
applied successfully to questions in cognitive psy-
chophysiology (Brandeis and Lehmann 1986).
Certain classes of spontaneously occurring seg-
ments might have a map configuration which is
similar to that of event-related segments ('compo-
nents') of known significance (example Fig. 16 in
Lehmann and Skrandies 1984) and thus might be
ascribed a putative. testable functional signifi-
cance during ongoing EEG activity. In addition.
we expect that the study of micro states leads to a
deepened understanding of HEG phenomenology.
More information on the functional signifi-
cance of the different micro states which are
manifest as classes of EEG segments can be ex-
pected from various types of experiments. Possible
physiological variables include event-related
potential data whose differing configurations in
response to repetitive stimuli
even during short
recording epochs (Zerlin and)
Davis 1967) might
depend on the momentary map-defined micro state
at stimulus arrival, as suggested by single-channel
results of time series-defined segments (e.g .. Gath
et al. 1985: Halász et al. 1985). As to micro
state-related behavioral variables, we found in a
recent (unpublished) study on 8 normal subjects
significant differences in selective motor reaction
time depending on the momentary segment class
at stimulus delivery: the subjects had to respond
to the rare, high pitch tone stimuli which at ran-
dom replaced some of the lower pitch tone stimuli
which were presented in a regular series ( oddball
paradigm'), during spontaneously varying segment
classes; each subject responsed to 337 rare stimuli:
over subjects, there were similar differences in
reaction time for the 26 different segment classes
which occurred in all subjects (Friedman ANOVA
x2 40.6. df = 25. P < 0.025). Another behavioral
variable might be different types of private. spon-
taneous experiences, which trained subjects can
report as brief statements upon a signai presented
in different micro states. The speculation be per-
mitted that psychotic disturbances of brain func-
tioning might be manifest as an aberrant mosaic
of the micro states. i.c., as aberrant occurrence
frequency or sequence or duration of the different
segment classes.
Appendix
Global field power of a map
Compute the N-weighted standard deviation of
the voltages measured at all electrodes vs. one of
the N electrodes (Lehmann and Skrandies 1980):
HE ( , -UP"
705
global field power =
-1 =
(formula 1)
where n is the number of electrodes on the sealp.
u, is the voltage at electrode i, and u is the mean
voltage of the n electrodes (this mean voltage is
the virtual, so-called average reference).
The value is zero for a completely flat field, and
rises with increasing hilliness of relief of the field.
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ADAPTIVE MULTICHANNEL EEG SEGMENTS VIA MAP CRITERIA
287
Global dissimilarity of maps
Compute the standard deviation of the voltages
at each electrode over all maps ( = compute mean
map and the S.D.s at. all electrodes) using the
average reference; sum the standard deviations
over all electrodes; divide by the number of elec-
trodes (Lehmann and Skrandies 1980):
global dissimilarity =
1
Σ
₼
i= 1
EW.
70.5
(formula 2)
where n = the number of electrodes, m = the num-
ber of maps. vij is the voltage at electrode i vs. the
average reference in map j, and v; = " Ej, Výj
(the mean voltage over all m maps at electrode i
vs. the average reference).
(For m = 2 maps, simply compute the root of
the sum (divided by 2) of the squared voltage
differences (using the average reference) over all
electrodes; divide by the number of electrodes):
If dissimilarity of configuration between maps
is to be assessed excluding influences of relief
magnitude, the maps must first be scaled to unity
global field.power, or ranks of voltages must be
used.
The value is zero for completely identical maps,
and rises with increasing dissimilarity between
maps.
The authors wish to thank D. Brandeis. M. Koukkou. G.
Ponte. W. Skrandies and two anonymous reviewers for helpful
criticism. G. Simon for advice on digital filtering. and R.
Müller for collaboration during the data collection.
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VI PHYSICS
The papers in this section provide plausibility arguments for a number of potential theoretical models
of anomalous mental phenomena.
The number that appears in the upper right-hand corner of the first page for each publication is keyed
to the following descriptions:
25. Tipler, F. J., "Rotating Cylinders and the Possibility of Global Causality Violation," Physical
Review D, Vol. 9, No. 8, pp. 2203-2206, (April, 1974). The precognition data suggests that causality
must be stochastic to avoid the classic problems such as redundant histories. This paper is a
technical general relativity argument that shows that under extreme circumstances, causality may
be violated.
26. Morris, M. S., Thorne, K. S., and Yurtsever, U., "Wormholes, TIme Machines, and the Weak
Energy Condition," Physical Review Letters, Vol. 61, No. 13, pp. 1446-1449, (September, 1988).
Whereas paper number 25 suggests extreme conditions for possible causality violation, this one
demonstrates that time travel may be possible under relatively normal conditions. Morris et. al.
find they must allow casualty to be stochastic to maintain the validity of the Einstein field
equations.
27. Redmount, I., "Wormholes, Time Travel and Quantum Gravity," New Scientist, p. 57, (April,
1990). In a non-technical article, Redmount describes how current relativity models might allow
for realizable time travel. He, too, must invoke a statistical nature for causality.
28. Misra, B. and Sudarshan, E. C. G., "The Zeno's Paradox in Quantum Theory," Journal of
Mathematical Physics, Vol. 18, No. 4, pp.756-763, (April, 1977). In an important paper in the
modern development of quantum theory, Misra and Sudarshan point out that under certain
circumstances, physical systems might behave considerable different under "observation" than
they do when unobserved. This physics speculation contains implications for anomalous
perturbation.
29. Aharonov, Y. and Vardi, M., "Meaning of an Individual 'Feynman Path," Physical Review D, Vol.
21, No. 8, pp. 2235-2240, (April, 1980). This theoretical paper extends the concepts from Misra
and Sudarshan by showing that under continuous observations a physical system conforms to the
implications of the measuring system rather than to the physical laws usually governing its
behavior.
30. Aharonov, Y. and Bohm, D., "Significance of Electromagnetic Potentials in the Quantum
Theory," The Physical Review, Second Series, Vol. 115, No. 3, pp. 485-491, (August, 1959). One
promising possible approach to understanding the transmission characteristics of anomalous
mental phenomena is the vector and scalar potentials of the standard electromagnetic theory.
This is the initial paper that theoretically showed that these special potentials are not just
mathematical improvements, but rather are physically measurable.
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PHYSICAL REVIEW D
VOLUME 9, NUMBER 8
.
15 APRIL 1974
Rotating cylinders and the possibility of global causality violation *
Frank J. Tipler
Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland 20742
(Received 6 November 1973)
In 1936 van Stockum solved the Einstein equations Guy = - 8. Tuy for the gravitational field of a
rapidly rotating infinite cylinder. It is shown that such a field violates causality, in the sense
that it allows a closed timelike line to connect any two events in spacetime. This suggests that
a finite rotating cylinder would also act as a time machine.
Since the work of Hawking and Penrose,1 it has
become accepted that classical general relativity
predicts some sort of pathological behavior. " How-
ever, the exact nature.of the pathology is under
intense debate at present, primarily because so-
lutions to the field equations can be found which ex-
hibit virtually any type of bizarre behavior.2,3 It
is thus of utmost importance to know what types of:
pathologies might be expected to occur in actual :
physical situations. One of these pathologies is
causality violation, and in this paper I shall argue
that if we make Le assumptions concerning the be-
havior of matter and manifold usual in general rel-
ativity, then it should be possible in principle to
set up an experiment in which this particular pa-
thology could be observed,
Because general relativity is a local theory with
no a priori restrictions on the global topology,
causality violation can be introduced into solutions .
quite easily by injudicious choices of topology; for.
example, we could assume that the timelike coor -.
dinate in the Minkowski metric is periodic, or we
could make wormhole identifications in Reissner-' :
Nordstrom space.4 In both of these cases the cau-
sality violation takes the form of closed timelike
lines (CTL) which are not homotopic to zero, and. :
these need cause no worries since they can be re-
moved by reinterpreting the metric in a covering
space (following Carter,. CTL removable by such
means will be called.trivial "other's will be called
nontrivial) .;
In 1949, however, Godele discovered a solution
to the field equations with nonzero cosmological
constant that contained nontrivial CTL: Still, it
could he argued that the Godel solution is without
physical significance, since it corresponds to a
rotating, stationary cosmology, whereas the actual
universe is expanding and apparently nonrotating.
The low-angular-momentum Kerr field, on the
other hand, cannot be claimed to be without physi-
cal relevance: It appears to be the unique final
state of gravitational collapse,7 and so Kerr black
holes probably exist somewhere, possibly in the
center of our galaxy.8 This field also contains
nontrivial CTL. though the region of causality vi-
olation is confined within an event horizon; causal-
ity violation from this source could never be ob-
. served by terrestrial physicists.9 In addition,
since the CTL must thread their way through a re-
gion near the singularity, it is quite possible that
matter of a collapsing star will replace this re-
gion, as matter replaces the past horizon in the
case of spherical collapse.1º The final Kerr field
with collapsed star could be causally well behaved,
so the CTL pathology might still be eliminated
from general relativity's physical solutions.
:I doubt this, because nontrivial causality vicla-
tion also occurs in the field generated by a rapidly
rotating infinite cylinder.
The field of such a cylinder in which the centrif-
ugal forces are balanced by gravitational attraction
was discovered by van Stockum in 1936.11 The
' 'metric is expressed in Weyl-Papapetrou form:
. ds2 = H (dr2 +dz2) + Ld2 +2Mdodt - Fdt2, (1)
"" where z measures distance along the cylinder axis,
. . r is the radial distance from the axis, o is the an-
gle coordinate, and t is required to be timelike at
r=0. (-> << 0, 0<><Do, 0 << 2, -> << 0.)
The metric tensor is a function of r alone, and the
coordinate condition FL + M2 =>' has been imposed
(units G =c =1).
It is clear that since g = detg =- >2/12 is nega-
tive, the metric signature is (+++ -) for all r>0,
provided H#0. van Stockum assumes the Einstein
equations
G", == 8TT",
-amp de dix,
where p is the particle mass density. Also
dr =dz =0,
ds " ds
de /dt =constant,
as /
T =TV =- D
9
2203
Copyright @ 1974 by The American Physical Society.
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FRANK J. TIPLER
2204
(particle paths required to be timelike).
In a frame in which the matter is at rest, the
equations give for the interior field
H === +2+2, L=>2(1-a2+2), p=4ªeª2}}
-
M =ar2, F=1,
(2)
where a is the angular velocity of the cylinder.
For r> 1/a, the lines r = constant, t = constant,
z = constant are CTL (in fact, by a theorem due to
Carter,5 nontrivial CTL can be found which inter-
sect any two events in the manifold), but one could
hope that the causality violation could be elimi-
nated by requiring the boundary of the cylinder to
be at r = R<1/a. Here the interior solution would
be joined to an exterior solution which would be
(hopefully) causally well behaved; indeed, the re-
sulting upper bound to the "velocity" aR would
equal 1, the speed of light in our units (though the
orbits of the particles creating the field are time-
like for all ?).
van Stockum has developed a procedure which
generates an exterior solution for all aR>0. When
0<aR<3, the exterior solution is
H =e-42R2(r/R)-202R2
-
L =
Rr sinh(3€ + 0)
2 sinh 2E coshe '
M = " sinh(€ +0)
sinh2€
1
F=
r sinh(€ - 0)
R sinhe
"
(3a)
with
0 = (1 - 4a2 R2)1/2 In(r:/R),
E =tanh-1(1 - 4a2 R2)1/2 .
For aR =2,
H = e-1/4(r/R)-1/2,
.L={Rr[ 3 +In(r/R)],
M ={r[1+1n(r/R)],
F=(r/R)[ 1-In(r/R)].
For aR>},
(3b)
H=€™ªRª(r/R)-2ªR2
Rr sin(33 +Y)
L =
2 sin28 cosß
,
M =
+ sin(8+Y)
(3c)
sin28
,
F =Y sin(B-r)
R sinß
-
with
y = (4a2 R2 - 1)1/2 In(r/R),
B=tan -1(4a2 R2 - 1)1/2
[as in the interior solution, FL + M2 =>2, so the
metric signature is (+++-) for R < > <).
We see that causality violation is avoided for
aR ≤3, but Carter's theorem tells us that it is
possible to connect any two events by nontrivial
CTL when aR > 2.
There are several objections to be met before
this result can be interpreted physically. First c
all, Eds. (3), which van Stockum derived by as-
suming a special functional form for the guy,
might not be the only candidates for the exterior
field; i: is known, for instance, that the gravita-
tional field (3a) is static12 in the sense that a
"transformation" of the form
t'= At +Bo , A, B, C, D constants
q'=Ct + Do
(
will eliminate the go, component. [Transformati
is placed in quotes since t' is a periodic coordi-
nate: |t'=t' +B27. Interpreted globally, the new
metric covers a manifold with topology
S2 x (half plane) .
We can return to the original topology by taking
covering space, an operation which is not equiva
lent to changing a coordinate system.]
Fortunately, it is easy to prove that (3) are the
only possible exterior fields for a rotating infini
cylinder. Levy and Robinson13 have shown that i
this case, the Weyl-Papapetrou metric can be
written [modulo (4)] in the form
ds2 =- e2x (dt +adq)2 +2(k-vì(drª+dz2)
+r2e-2ªdoª,
where u, a, k are functions of r only. A procedur
developed by Davies and Caplan14 and myself al-
lows the equations Ruv = 0 to be integrated; the s
lution's are equivalent to (3). (Details of the
uniqueness proof can be found in the Appendix.)
Since the causality problems come from the si
nusoid factors of (3c), we might hope to avoid
these factors by "transforming" (3a) via (4) and
then attempting to join the interior field to the
"new" (topologically distinct) field. But the
"transformation" (4) will not change the exponer
of r, which for aR > } become imaginary-in fac
for aR>}, (3a) is (3c) with the substitutions E =1
and 0=iy.
Thus we expect causality violation to occur in
the matter-free space surrounding a rapidly rot
ing infinite cylinder. As Thorne15 has emphasiz
however, it is risky to claim that the properties
of such a cylinder also hold for realistic cylinde
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ROTATING CYLINDERS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF GLOBAL
...
2205
In addition to the already mentioned static nature
of the field, there is the fact that it is not even
asymptotically Minkowskian (especially when aR
> ¿). Still, the gravitational potential of the cylin-
der's Newtonian analog also diverges at radial in-
finity, yet this potential is a good approximation
near the surface in the middle of a long but finite
cylinder, and if we shrink the rotating cylinder
down to a "ring" singularity, we end up with the
Kerr field, which also has CTL. These facts sug-
gest that there is a region near the surface of a
finite cylinder where go, becomes negative, im-
plying causality violation.
Since H+0 for y #0, there are no event horizons
around the infinite cylinder. By analogy with the
static case, 16 I expect this to be true for a finite .
cylinder; if so, then a timelike line from any
event in the universe could enter the region where
guy is negative and return to any other event.17
In short, general relativity suggests that if we
construct a sufficiently large rotating cylinder,
we create a time machine.
I would like to thank Dr. D. Schmidt for helpful
discussions, and Professor D. R. Brill for reading
the manuscript.
APPENDIX: PROOF THAT VAN STOCKUM'S EXTERIOR
SOLUTIONS (3) ARE THE ONLY POSSIBLE
.
EXTERIOR FIELDS FOR AN INFINITE
ROTATING CYLINDER
-
Davies and Caplan have shown14 that the field
equations Ruv = 0 for the Levy-Robinson metric
[Eq. (5)] reduce to
d2+ I LL + 2 (않음) =0,
(A1)
dªa
da - 1 da + 4 ar ar = 0 ,
.
dr. 2 -r dr
dr
.
(A2)
dx -2(du ) + 22xe1% ( da ) =0.
(A3)
We have three coupled equations for three func-
tions: second order in u, second order in a, first
order in k. Thus we expect five arbitrary con-
stants. A general physical solution to the above
system will be defined to be a set of functions
a, u, k in which the five constants are allowed to
assume all real values from - to co. I will show
that this general solution is given by Eqs. (3a)-
(3c).
Equation (A2) can be written
Thus (1/r)e4" da/dr = 2w (where w is a constant).
Substituting this into (A1), we obtain
d " + 1 du + 2w3 e -4 = 0.
.
Suppose first that w = 0. Then a little manipulation
yields
u = A(Inr) +B, k = A2(Inr) +C, a=D,
where A, B, C, D are constants.
By the transformation t = t' - ao, y =0', z =z',
Y =>', we discover that except for global topology
this solution is just the Weyl solution (3a).
Suppose now that w # 0. It is at this point that
Davies and Caplan err; their "general" solution in
fact places implicit restrictions on the value of
their constant A. The complete general solution is
obtained via the following procedure. Let v = e-",
p=(wr)2, so that u = - In(v), and d/dr
= 2w2y(d/dp), which gives
dr -1 db 2 2 .
4v dp
Equation (A4) becomes
1 d (r du ) + 2w2 -4
r dr
= 202%
d
2w2x2
do
do 1 - 20 AV
du
do
+ 2 w2 V =0
1
or
d /p du
dp v dp
-2v =0.
(A5)
Let w=pv, giving dv/dp=v'=w'/p- w/p2. (A5) be-
comes
d (Dw') - 200 = 0.
(A6)
Let t=In(p), d/dp=(1/p)d/dt. (A6) becomes
d
w
-2w= 0.
(A7)
dt
W
Let Q = w=dw /dt, d/dt = (Q)d/dw. (A7) becomes
.
Q-du (2)-2w=0'
or
aw (2) - 2 0 = 0.
Thus
& d (2) =2dw
or
(Q/w}=4wŁA2,
which can be written
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(A4)
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FRANK J. TIPLER
w= w(4w ± A2)1/2.
(A8)
.The next integral depends on the sign choice in
(A8). First choose the + sign. Then performing
the integration, we obtain
# In {
(4 w + A2)1/2 - A 7
(4 w + A2)1/2 + A
= Inp + - in B .
[The constant of integration (1/A) In B has values
from - to , though 0 < B > .. ] This can be in-
verted (after the appropriate substitutions are
made) to give
"= in[
A2 (r) 21-2B
(1-w212-24B)2]
which is identical to Eq. (2.3) of Davies and Caplan
(in Ref. 14). The computation proceeds as they
outline to obtain k and a. Frehland14 has shown
that this solution is the same as the Weyl solution
(3a)
Suppose now that A =0. We get
844 = gTr = Fr-1/2,
86; = ~ (1 - Ewinw2r2D2),
81 =wr In(w2r2D2),
800 =- YE(2 +Ew lnw2r2D2),
+
where E, D, F are constants. These solutions ar
identical to (3b), with a suitable choice of con-
stants. Suppose now that the integration constar
is -Af. We obtain
81 = zur cos[In(w^^)+C],
8x = gry= Fr-(1+2)/2
,
g+= { sin[in(w^^^)+C]
+ D cos[In(w^^^)+c]}.
(A)
guy is determined by the relation FL + M2 =72,
where A, C, D, F are constants.
Thus the general exterior field is given by (3).
*Work supported in part by the National Science Foun-
dation under Grant No. GP-25548.
1S. W. Hawking and R. Penrose, Proc. R. Soc, Lond.
. A 314, 529 (1970).
2C. W. Misner, in Relativity Theory and Astrophysics:
Relativity and Cosmology, edited by J. Ehlers (Ameri-
can Mathematical Society, Providence, R.I., 1967),
Vol. 8, p. 160.
3R. Geroch, Ann. Phys. (N.Y.) 48, 526 (1968).
‘B. Carter, Phys, Lett. 21, 423 (1966).
5B. Carter, Phys, Rev. 174, 1559 (1968). Carter's
causality theorem can be stated as follows: A nec-
essary and sufficient condition for nontrivial causality
violation in a connected, time-oriented spacetime with
a timewise orthogonally transitive Abelian isometry
group is the nonexistence of a covariant vector in the
Lie algebra such that the corresponding differential
form in the surface of transitivity is everywhere well
behaved and everywhere timelike. If the above criterion
is satisfied, then there exist both future- and past-
directed timelike lines between any two points of the
spacetime. For the van Stockum metrics (2) and
(3a)-(3b), the group generated by the Killing vectors
(8/ 8 z, a/ at, a/ a y) is timewise orthogonally transitive
and Abelian. It is easily checked that for > >1/a in (2)
and aR>} in (3), there is no linear combination $= At
+ By+ Cz (where A, B, C are constants) such that the
form de is everywhere timelike.
6K. Gödel; Rev. Mod. Phys. 21, 447 (1949).
"R. M. Wald, Phys. Rev. Lett. 26, 1653 (1971).
&C. W. Misner, Phys. Rev. Lett. 28, 994 (1972).
'For a2 + et >>2 there are no event horizons and so
causality violation is global, but it is not clear that a
star with such high values of angular momentum and/or
charge would collapse sufficiently far to uncover the
region where goo changes sign (see Ref. 7). Penrose
has argued (in Proceedings of the Sixth Texas Sym-
posium on Relativistic Astrophysics, 1972 (unpub-
lished)] that a naked Kerr singularity would be a good
model for a rapidly rotating star which has collapsed
into a disk. CTL would be expected when e = 0, but
one might contend that these occur so close to the
singularity (and hence in regions where we expect
general relativity to break down anyway) that they are
without physical significance. van Stockum's work
Shows, however, that CTL are not necessarily associ
ated with extreme curvature in physically significant
situations.
1ºC. W. Misner, in Astrophysics and General Relativity
edited by M. Chretien, S. Deser, and J. Goldstein
(Gordon and Breach, New York, 1969), Vol. 1.
11w. J. van Stockum, Proc. R. Soc. Edinb. 57, 135 (193
Other authors, such as S. C. Maitra [J. Math. Phys.
7, 1025 (1966)] have noted that the van Stockum interi
solution possesses CTL.
12J. Ehlers and W. Kundt, in Gravitation: An Introduc-
tion to Current Research, edited by L. Witten (Wiley,
New York, 1962), p. 84.
13 H. Levy and W. J. Robinson, Proc. Camb. Philos.
Soc. 60, 279 (1964).
14H. Davies and T. A. Caplan, Proc. Camb. Philos. Soc.
69, 325 (1971); E. Frehland, Commun. Math. Phys.
23, 127 (1971).
15K. S. Thorne, Comments Astrophys. Space Phys. 2,
191 (1970).
16W. Israel, Nature 216, 148 (1967); 216, 312 (1967).
ITAssuming, of course, that the cylinder has existed
for all time. If it is created, then this statement will
have to be qualified somewhat. but observable causali
violation will still occur.
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Wormholes, Time Machines, and the Weak Energy Condition
26
Michael S. Morris, Kip S. Thorne, and Ulvi Yurtsever
Theoretical Astrophysics, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California 91125
(Received 21 June 1988)
It is argued that, if the laws of physics permit an advanced civilization to create and maintain a
wormhole in space for interstellar travel, then that wormhole can be converted into a time machine with
which causality might be violatable. Whether wormholes can be created and maintained entails deep,
ill-understood issues about cosmic censorship, quantum gravity, and quantum field theory, including the
question of whether field theory enforces an averaged version of the weak energy condition.
PACS numbers: 04.60.+n, 03.70.+k, 04.20.Cv
Normally theoretical physicists ask, "What are the
laws of physics?" and/or, "What do those laws predict
about the Universe?" In this Letter we ask, instead,
"What constraints do the laws of physics place on the ac-
tivities of an arbitrarily advanced civilization?" This
will lead to some intriguing queries about the laws them-
selves.
We begin by asking whether the laws of physics per-
mit an arbitrarily advanced civilization to construct and
maintain wormholes for interstellar travel. Such a
wormhole is a short "handle" in the topology of space,
which links widely separated regions of the Universe
(Fig. 1). The Schwarzschild metric, with an appropriate
choice of topology, describes such a wormhole. 1,2 How-
ever, the Schwarzschild wormhole's horizon prevents
two-way travel, and its throat pinches off so quickly that
it cannot be traversed in even one direction. 2,3 To
prevent pinchoff (singularities) and horizons, one must
thread the throat with nonzero stress and energy.4 One
then faces two questions: (i) Does quantum field theory
permit the kind of stress-energy tensor that is required to
maintain a two-way-traversible wormhole? (ii) Do the
laws of physics permit the creation of wormholes in a
universe whose spatial sections initially are simply con-
nected? These questions take on added importance when
one recognizes (see below) that, if the laws of physics
permit traversible wormholes, then they probably also
permit such a wormhole to be transformed into a "time
machine" with which causality might be violatable. In
the remainder of this Letter we discuss in turn the
creation of wormholes, their maintenance by quantum-
field-theoretic stress-energy tensors, and their conversion
-
FIG. 1. A wormhole and the external universe at a specific
moment of time, embedded in a fictitious higher-dimensional
space.
into time machines.
Wormhole creation .- Wormhole creation, with such
mild spacetime curvature that classical general relativity
is everywhere valid, must be accompanied by closed
timelike curves and/or a noncontinuous choice of the fu-
ture light cone, and also by a violation of the "weak en-
ergy condition."6 Specific spacetimes with such worm-
hole creation are known.7 However, it is not known
whether the stress-energy tensors required by the Ein-
stein equations in those spacetimes are permitted by
quantum field theory.
Wormhole creation accompanied by extremely large
spacetime curvatures would be governed by the laws of
quantum gravity. A seemingly plausible scenario entails
quantum foam1,8 [finite probability amplitudes for a
variety of topologies on length scales of order of the
Planck-Wheeler length, (Gh/c3) 1/2=1.3×10-3 cm]:
One can imagine an advanced civilization pulling a
wormhole out of the quantum foam and enlarging it to
classical size. This might be analyzable by techniques
now being developed for computation of spontaneous
wormhole production by quantum tunneling. 9
Wormhole maintenance .- For any traversible worm-
hole a two-sphere surrounding one mouth (but well out-
side it where spacetime is nearly flat), as seen through
the wormhole from the other mouth, is an outer trapped
surface. This implies 10 (since there is no event horizon)
that the wormhole's stress-energy tensor Tap must violate
the averaged weak energy condition 11- (AWEC); i.c.,
. passing through the wormhole there must be null geo-
desics, with tangent vectors k"=dx"/dl, along which
So TuBk"kedy <0. (Our conventions are those of Ref.
2.) Thus, if one could show that quantum field theory
forbids violations of AWEC, one could rule out advanced
civilizations maintaining traversible wormholes.
Specialize to a static, spherical wormhole, with space-
time metric4
ds2 - - e20 dt2+dl2+r2(de2+sin20do2),
where + and r are functions of proper radial distance I.
Set /-0 at the throat (/ <0 on the "left" side of the
throat and /> 0 on the "right" side). Far from the
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throat,
-Min ( [ { \/ro)
and 02-2M/\/\.
where M is the wormhole's mass, As / increases from
- co to 0, r decreases monotonically to a minimum value
ro, the throat's "radius"; and as / increases onward to
+co, r increases monotonically. Ø is everywhere finite
(no horizons). For such a wormhole, AWEC is violated
on radial null geodesics, and its violation can be ex-
pressed as fi (T-p)e-dl > 0 for any / <0. Here p
and t are the energy density and radial tension, p=e29
XT", T- - T", and the affine parameter is (- fedl.
The following model explores the use of the "Casimir
vacuum"12 (a quantum state of the electromagnetic field
that violates the unaveraged weak energy condition11) to
support.a wormhole: At /= ±s/2, we place two identi-
cal, perfectly conducting spherical plates with equal elec-
tric charges Q; we require s Kro; and we carry out our
analysis only up to fractional errors of order s/ro. Be-
tween the plates the electromagnetic field is in the
Casimir vacuum state for which p, t, and the lateral
pressure p=Te-T, are 13
T=3p =- 3p=(3m2/720) (h/s4) =Tc.
Outside the plates is a classical, radial Coulomb field
with t=p=p=Q2/8,nr4, which produces a Reissner-
Nordstrom spacetime geometry.2 Force balance at the
plates requires Q= (8TrÔTC) 1/2. The Einstein field equa-
tions can then be satisfied throughout if4 (i) TC
=(8gr8)-1, so that s = (~3/30) 1/4(rov/h ) 1/2 [s ~10-10
cm for ro - (distance from Sun to Earth)]; (ii) the
wormhole's charge Q and mass M, as measured by dis-
tant observers, are both equal to ro (aside from fraction-
al corrections Ss/ro); and (iii) the energy per unit area
o of each plate is such as to violate AWEC: 20 < Tes,
or more precisely TCS-20> 0(TCS 2/10).
This violation of AWEC is compatible with a total
nonnegative energy of plates plus Casimir field, 2o+ps
-20- f ics 2 0. However, if quantum field theory re-
quires that the plates' mass-to-charge ratios exceed that
of an electron, 4nrbq/Q> m/e, then 20 < + tes corre-
sponds to a plate separation smaller than the electron
Compton wavelength,
s < [(x3/270)e2/h]1/2h/m =0.029h/m,
which might well be forbidden. To determine whether
o< fics is allowed would require explicit study of
quantum-field-theory models for the plates (a task we
have not attempted) or a general theorem that quantum
field theory forbids violations of AWEC.
Conversion of wormhole into time machine .- Figure
2 is a spacetime diagram for the conversion of a spheri-
cal, traversible wormhole into a time machine, Shown
unstippled is the nearly flat spacetime outside the worm-
hole, with Lorentz coordinates T,Z (shown) and X,Y
(suppressed). Shown stippled is the wormhole interior,
i.e., the region of large spacetime curvature. The central
lines of the stippled strips are the wormhole throat,
T
12
11
16
110
14
13
C
12.
Caustic-
7
30
9
6
8
5
7
6
4
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
=0 ~
L
0=İR
FIG. 2. Spacetime diagram for conversion of a wormhole
into a time machine.
parametrized by a time coordinate : introduced below.
At T=0, the wormhole's mouths are at rest near each
other. Subsequently, the left mouth remains at rest
while the right mouth accelerates to near-light speed,
then reverses its motion and returns to its original loca-
tion. The advanced beings can produce this motion by
pulling on the right mouth gravitationally or electrically.
This motion causes the right mouth to "age" less than
the left as seen from the exterior. Consequently, at late
times by traversing the wormhole from right mouth to
left, one can travel backward in time (i.e., one can
traverse a closed timelike curve) and thereby, perhaps,
violate causality.
The metric inside the accelerating wormhole and out-
side but near its mouths is
ds2- - (1+glF cos0)2e 20 dt2+dl2+r2(de2+sin20d(2).
Here +=+(/) and r=r (/) are the same functions as for
the original, static wormhole; F=F(/) is a form factor
that vanishes in the left half of the wormhole / < 0, and
rises smoothly from 0 to 1 as one moves rightward from
the throat to the right mouth; and g=g(r) is the ac-
celeration of the right mouth as measured in its own
asymptotic rest frame. Just outside the right and left
mouths the transformation from wormhole coordinates
to external, Lorentz coordinates (with ds2 -dT2
+dx2+dy2+dZ2) is T-TRtuylcose, Z-ZR+y!
x cose, X=Isinecose, Y-Isinesino; T=1, Z-Z_+l
xcose, X-Isinecoso, Y=Isinesind. Here Zz is the
time-independent 2 location of the left mouth's center;
Z-ZR(I), T-TR() is the world line of the right
mouth's center with dt2 =dTR -dZ}; v(t) =dZR/dTR is
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the velocity of the right mouth; and y(() = (1 - 2) -1/2.
The acceleration appearing in the wormhole metric is
g(1) = >2du/dt. The right mouth's maximum accelera-
tion g max and the distance S through the wormhole from
left mouth. to right must satisfy gmaxS<1, gmax dg/
di ->S. This guarantees that with tiny fractional
changes of Taf, the wormhole's size and shape are held
nearly constant throughout the acceleration.
.
The region of spacetime containing closed timelike
curves is separated from that without such curves by a
Cauchy horizon. One might have expected this Cauchy
horizon to be unstable (in accord with strong cosmic cen-
sorship14). Indeed, in the analogous two-dimensional
(2D) Misner space15 [obtainable from 2D Minkowskii
spacetime by identification of (T,Z) - (5,0) with (T,Z)
-(75,L-yu5), where L > 0, v> 0, y=(1-v2) -1/2
and & runs from -o to L/yv] the Cauchy horizon H
[located at T-Z=L/(B-1) where B= (1+ v) 1/2/
(1 -v) 1/2] is unstable. Rightward-propagating waves in
Misner space get boosted in frequency by a factor B with
each passage through the identification world line, and
they pass through it infinitely many times as they ap-
proach the Cauchy horizon, H. As a result, the stress-
energy tensor of such waves diverges at H-presumably
thereby preventing the spacetime from evolving the
closed timelike curves that it otherwise would have
beyond H. [This is the same instability as occurs at the
Misner hypersurface in Taub-NUT (Newman-Unti-
Tamburino) space. 10,16]
In our 4D wormhole spacetime the Cauchy horizon H
seems not to suffer this particular instability. There H
possesses precisely one closed null generator17: the curve
C in Fig. 2, which runs along the Z axis from left mouth
to right mouth, through the throat, then along the Z axis
again. The remainder of H consists of null geodesics
(very thin lines in Fig. 2) which peel off C to form a fu-
ture light cone of the wormhole's left mouth (with caus-
tics, where future-directed generators leave the horizon,
along the Z axis to the left mouth and right of the right
mouth). The most likely place for the Misner-type insta-
bility is on C. Indeed, a light ray (dashed curve of Fig.
2), running along the Z axis before horizon formation,
gets Doppler shifted by the factor B with each traversal
through the wormhole; and it traverses the wormhole
infinitely many times as it asymptotes to C. However,
the wormhole's AWEC violation causes the throat to act
like a diverging lens with focal length f=ro/2. Corre-
spondingly, if D is the Z distance between wormhole
mouths as measured along C, waves propagating along
the dashed curve get reduced in amplitude by f/D
=ro/2D with each round trip from left mouth to right
and through the wormhole. If the advanced beings ar-
range that (f/D)B <1, the reduction in amplitude will
dominate over the boost in frequency, thereby reducing
the wave energy with each round trip and leaving the
Cauchy horizon immune to this instability. We suspect,
in fact, that the Cauchy horizon is fully stable and thus
constitutes a counterexample to the conjecture of strong
cosmic censorship. 14
For Misner space 15 (as also for Taub-NUT space 10.16)
the. extension of spacetime through the Cauchy horizon
H is not unique: In one extension all "leftward" causal
geodesics (those with initial rightward velocities less
than a critical value) are well behaved, while all "right-
ward" causal geodesics terminate at H after finite affine
parameter; in another extension the rightward geodesics
are well behaved and the leftward terminate. By analo-
gy, one might expect there to exist other extensions (be-
sides Fig. 2) of the 4D wormhole spacetime beyond H;
one might even hope that in the real universe such a
wormhole would actually find and evolve into an exten-
sion (possibly nonanalytic) with no closed timelike
curves. However, because the set of spacetime geodesics
that terminate on H is of "measure zero" (it is a four-
parameter set compared to six parameters for generic
geodisics), we suspect (provided H is indeed stable) that
the extension beyond H is uniquely that of Fig. 2. More
generally, we speculate that whenever a spacetime has a
fully stable Cauchy horizon, its evolution through that
horizon is unique. Similarly, we speculate (as has been
suggested to us by Friedman7) that in such a spacetime
physical fields, both quantum and classical, evolve
through and beyond H in unique ways.18 For example, if
initial data for a classical scalar field y are specified at
T=0 in the spacetime of Fig. 2, the resulting evolution
via Dy =0 beyond H will exist and be unique. This is be-
cause the set of causal geodesics to the future of H,
which do not extend back through T=0, is of measure
zero (is only a four-parameter set); and such geodesics
experience an infinity of "diverging-lens" wormhole
traversals as one follows them backward in local time to
points from which they could carry unspecified initial
data. This makes us doubt that any "new " field w can
propagate into the spacetime along them.
This wormhole spacetime may serve as a useful test
bed for ideas about causality, "free will," and the quan-
tum theory of measurement. As an infamous example,
can an advanced being measure Schrödinger's cat to be
alive at an event P (thereby "collapsing its wave func-
tion" onto a "live" state), then go backward in time via
. the wormhole and kill the cat (collapse its wave function
onto a "dead" state) before it reaches P?
For helpful discussions or correspondence, we thank
Bruce Allen, Phillip Candelas, S. Chandrasekhar, Bryce
De Witt, Sam Finn, John Friedman, Robert Geroch, Leo-
nard Parker, Don Page, Nicolas Papastamatiou, Thomas
Roman, Carl Sagan, and Robert Wald. One of us
(K.S.T.) thanks the Departments of Physics and Astron-
omy and the Phenomenology Group of the University of
Wisconsin at Madison for hospitality during this
research. This work was supported in part by National
Science Foundation Grant No. AST85-14911.
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U. A. ApprovedFaFodynamics (Academic, New York,
1962).
2C. W. Misner, K. S. Thorne, and J. A. Wheeler, Gravita-
rion (Freeman, San Francisco, 1973).
3M. D. Kruskal, Phys. Rev. 119, 1743 (1960).
4M. S. Morris, and K. S. Thorne, Am. J. Phys. (to be pub-
lished).
$Theorem 2 of R. P. Geroch, J. Math. Phys. 8, 782 (1967);
for further discussion, see R. P. Geroch, Ph.D. thesis, Princeton
University, 1967 (unpublished).
6F. J. Tipler, Phys. Rev. Lett. 37, 879 (1976); Sec. 5 of F. J.
Tipler, Ann. Phys. (N.Y.) 108, 1 (1977).
"The method for mathematical construction of such space-
times is given by P. Yodzis, Commun. Math. Phys. 26, 39
(1972). John Friedman and Zhang Huai (private communica-
tion) have given a lovely explicit example in which two
wormholes are created in a compact region of spacetime.
8S. W. Hawking, Phys. Rev. D 37, 904 (1988).
9H. Kandrup and P. Mazur, "Particle Creation and Topolo-
gy Change in Quantum Cosmology" (unpublished).
10Proposition 9.2.8 of S. W. Hawking and G. F. R. Ellis, The
Large Scale Structure of Space-Time (Cambridge Univ.
Press, Cambridge, 1973), as adapted to the wormhole topology
and as modified by replacement of the weak energy condition
by the AWEC with an argument from D. Deutsch and P. Can-
delas, Phys. Rev. D 20, 3063 (1980), and references therein.
We thank Don Page for pointing out a variant of this argu-
ment.
IF. J. Tipler, Phys. Rev. D 17, 2521 (1978); T. A. Roman.
Phys. Rev. D 33, 3526 (1986), and 37, 546 (1988).
12 Deutsch and Candelas, in Ref. 10.
13These renormalized stresses and energy density are the
same as for flat plates in flat spacetime. The wormhole's
spacetime geometry will modify them by fractional amounts
Ss/ro, which we ignore. The nonzero extrinsic curvature of
the plates, which is of order s/ry, will give rise to renormalized
stresses and energy density of order (hs/ro) (/ + s/2) -3 which
diverge at the plates: but these can be made negligible by giv.
ing the plates a finite skin depth 8~(s/ro) "/> <ro; see Ref.
12.
14F. J. Tipler, C. J. S. Clarke, and G. F. R. Ellis, in Einstein
Centenary Volume, edited by A. Held and P. Bergman (Pie-
num, New York, 1979).
ISC. W. Misner, in Relativity Theory and Astrophysics I:
Relativity and Cosmology, edited by J. Ehlers (American
Mathematical Society, Providence, RI, 1967), p. 160; also Sec.
5.8 of Ref. 10.
16C. W. Misner and A. H. Taub, Zh. Eksp. Teor. Fiz. 55, 233
(1968) [Sov. Phys. JETP 28, 122 (1969)].
17For a discussion of Cauchy horizons with structures similar
to this, see F. J. Tipler, Ph. D. thesis, University of Maryland.
1976 (unpublished), Chap. 4.
18For a discussion of uniqueness of evolution of nonglobally
hyperbolic spacetimes from a somewhat different viewpoint, see
R. M. Wald, J. Mat .. Phys. 21, 2802 (1980).
.-
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New Scientist 28 April 1990
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Wormholes, time travel and quantum gravity
"Wormholes" in space and time have suddenly become a focus of attention. Large ones might be
used as time machines; small ones may determine the values of all the constants of nature
Ian Redmount
T
HE PAST few years
have seen an explosion
of interest in what
theoretical physicists call
"wormholes". These are tun-
nels in the geometry of space
and time, connecting other-
wise distant or completely
disconnected regions of the
Universe. In fact, there have
been two explosions in two
almost unrelated subjects.
One is macroscopic worm-
holes, the kind that science
fiction writers or sufficiently
advanced civilisations might
use for space travel across
cosmic distances. The other is
microscopic wormholes, on a
scale 20 orders of magnitude
smaller than an atomic nu-
cleus. At this scale, space and
time should obey the rules of
quantum physics rather than
classical laws.
Neither type of wormhole
is a new idea. Theorists have
known about large-scale
wormholes for more than 70
years-since shortly after Albert Einstein put forward the
general theory of relativity, which relates gravity to the
geometry of space and time. For 30 years, physicists have
conjectured that microscopic wormholes might play a crucial
role in understanding the structure of elementary particles or
in developing a quantum theory of gravity. Recently, however,
researchers have found that both types of objects may have
some remarkable, previously unsuspected properties. Large-
scale wormholes could provide a relatively easy means of
travelling backwards in time, with all the potential complica-
tions that entails. Microscopic wormholes might, through their
contribution to the quantum mechanics of the Universe, deter-
mine the values of all the constants in all the laws of physics.
Much of this wormhole work is speculative and some very
controversial, but that is why these subjects have generated
such excitement lately.
Michael Morris and Ulvi Yurtsever, and their PHD thesis
adviser Kip Thorne of the California Institute of Technology,
began discovering new features of large-scale wormholes in
1985. They were trying to flesh out the idea of using wormholes
for interstellar space travel, as described in Carl Sagan's novel
Contact. What, they asked, do the known laws of physics
require for such a thing to work?
A classical, large-scale wormhole is a solution of the field
equations of Einstein's general theory of relativity, a geometry
of space and time, or "space-time", in which two regions of the
Universe are connected by a short, narrow "throat". The best-
known such geometry is the spherically symmetrical, matter-
free solution discovered by Karl Schwarzschild in 1916. A
portion of this solution, omitting one of the exterior regions
and the christ cerune to describe the space-time around a
spherical, non-rotating star,
planet, or other object. A
slightly larger portion de-
scribes a non-rotating, elec-
trically neutral black hole.
But neither of these objects
connects distant regions of
the Universe. Only the full
wormhole geometry does
that (see Figure 1).
Figure 1 is deceiving, how-
ever. The wormhole shown is
not a static structure; it repre-
sents the shape of space at the
single instant of maximum
expansion of the throat. The
Schwarzschild wormhole ac-
tually expands from zero
throat radius to the maximum
shown in Figure 1, then
shrinks back to zero. It does
this so quickly that no trav-
eller, even one moving at the
speed of light, can ever pass
from one mouth of the hole to
the other. Such a wormhole
is not "traversable". Any
matter falling into the worm-
hole from the surrounding
space hastens the contraction, so that the traveller cannot even
Andrew Kulman
come close to making a safe passage.
Other wormhole solutions to Einstein's equations-for an
electrically charged or a rotating black hole, for example-
while they are ostensibly traversable, suffer from the same
problem. Any matter that falls in, or any radiation, is so
concentrated and amplified by the gravitational fields of the
hole that its own gravity alters the spacetime and closes off the
hole. Moreover, all these wormholes exert tidal gravitational
forces as strong as those of a black hole of the same size; a hole
that is metres or kilometres in size would shred travellers
of human dimensions long before they even got near it. Clearly
a hole suitable for space travel requires some novel
modifications.
What the team from Caltech did was to construct mathemat-
ically wormhole geometries that would allow passage, with
throats that stayed open and gravitational fields such that
travellers encountered only modest accelerations and tidal
forces. The equations of general relativity then told them what
kinds of matter and energy were needed to make up the holes.
They found that the throats of their holes had to be threaded by
matter or fields with enormous negative pressure, in other
words, the matter would have to have a tension, rather like a
stretched spring.
For a hole a kilometre or so across, the size of this tension is
similar to the pressure at the centre of a neutron star (a star
with about the same mass as our Sun, occupying the volume of
a large mountain on Earth). For a smaller hole, the tension
would be greater. Most crucially, the magnitude of the tension
must be greater than the energy per unit volume (the energy
densitv) of the matter itself
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=
. Matter with this property is called "exotic". In familiar
Washington University, St Louis, has found a kind of
matter, tensione ned For Release 2003/04/18 !/CIA-RDP96-00789R00810006000ft-4can pass through it without
energy density: the breaking tension of steel, for example, is
some 12 orders of magnitude (1012 times) smaller than its
energy density. A tension larger than the energy density
implies that some observers-moving rapidly with respect to
the wormhole-will observe the matter to have negative
energy density. Einstein's general theory of relativity relates
the density and pressure, or tension, measured by one set of
observers to those of another. The relationship guarantees
a positive energy density for all observers if pressure or
tension is smaller than energy density for any one observer,
but not otherwise. Einstein's field equations imply that
any traversable wormhole must contain some form of this
exotic matter.
We do not know whether this requirement rules out the
possibility of traversable wormholes or not. Physicists usually
assume that matter obeys certain energy conditions, among
which is the requirement that all observers measure positive
energy densities. Situations exist, however, in which these
conditions are known to be false.
The electromagnetic field between two metal plates can, for
example,, give rise to a negative energy density. Because,
according to quantum mechanics, the electric and magnetic
fields obey Heisenberg's uncertainty principle, they fluctuate
minutely, rather than holding precise, classical values. Even
the vacuum contains these field fluctuations. The energy of the
fluctuations in the field between conducting plates is actually
less than that in the free vacuum; that is, it is negative. This
effect is named after the Dutch physicist Hendrik Casimir,
who calculated it in 1948, and it has since been confirmed in
the laboratory.
The evaporation of black holes. discovered by Stephen
Hawking at the University of Cambridge in 1974, also involves
negative energy densities.
No one knows whether exotic matter of the density and
extent required to make a traversable wormhole can exist or
not. If it can, and if it interacts weakly enough with other
matter to avoid harming the traveller, or can be confined
within the wormhole away from the traveller's path, then
traversable wormholes remain a physical possibility.
The results of other theorists support this. Matt Visser of
(a)
(b)
Figure 1 A wormhole can connect two regions, as in a, or two points .
of a single region as in b
encountering any matter, exotic or otherwise, and without
feeling any forces at all. He takes two copies of what is called
Minkowski space-time-this is infinite, empty space-time with
no matter or gravitational fields-and excises an identical
region from each, and joins them at the boundaries of the
excised regions. The energy densities and pressures on the
boundary surface, now the throat of the wormhole, are
specified by Einstein's field equations. If, for example, the
junction surface is a cube, then all the exotic matter is confined
to "struts" on the edges of the cube. A traveller can pass from
one Minkowski region to the other through a face of the cube,
untouched by any matter or force. Visser's work also suggests
that wormholes like this could be made stable-they would
neither collapse nor explode, clearly another requirement for
holes usable for travel.
In a similar vein, recent work by lan Moss, Felicity
Mellor, and Paul Davies at the University of Newcastle upon
Tyne indicates that in our expanding Universe, some worm-
holes may not be forced to collapse by the effects of infalling
matter and radiation. So this may not be the problem
for wormholes in our expanding Universe that it is for holes in
hypothetical flat space time.
Wormholes as time machines
The biggest surprise in all this is that if the laws of physics do
permit wormholes suitable for space travel, then they provide
a simple means of time travel as well. A wormhole may be
turned into a time machine by keeping one mouth of the hole
fixed with respect to the distant stars, while moving the other.
(From outside, a wormhole mouth is an ordinary gravitating
body. You could move it using the gravitational attraction of
another body, or by giving it an electric charge and moving it
with electric fields. ) Clocks fixed to the moving mouth advance
more slowly than those at the stationary mouth; they undergo
"time dilation" with respect to distant clocks, a well-known
effect predicted by the special theory of relativity. However,
they remain linked to clocks at the stationary mouth through
the wormhole.
Enter the wormhole at the moving mouth when clocks there
read 12:00 and you will emerge from the stationary mouth with
the clocks there reading just after 12:00. The accumulated time
dilation of the moving mouth, then, makes backward time
travel possible. Eventually, you can travel from the stationary
mouth to the moving one, through the intervening space, and
reach the moving mouth when clocks there read an earlier
value than those at the stationary mouth did when you left.
Travel back through the hole, and you arrive at your starting
point at an earlier time than you left (see Figure 2). You have
made a journey, through the wormhole, back in time.
This is not the unrestricted time-travel of science fiction.
There is a surface in the wormhole space-time, defined, as
shown in Figure 2, by the first cyclic journey when no time has
elapsed, before which no backward time-travel can take place.
But in the space-time beyond this boundary cyclic trips
through lime are possible. Hence we must face all the
paradoxes associated with time-travel, or re-evaluate our
familiar ideas of causality and time evolution.
Notions of causality-that causes precede effects, that the
past determines the present and the future, and so on-are
deeply ingrained in scientific thought. The team from Caltech,
in collaboration with Igor Novikov of the Space Research
Institute, Moscow, and other physicists, are examining the
implications for these ideas of wormhole time machines. They
supplement causality with the principle of consistency: the
evolution of a physical system should be self-consistent, even
when you include influences from the future acting back in
time. This means that if you travel back in time and attempt to
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1
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16
15
5
14
13
12
11
10
9
3
Backward
8
time
Figure 2 A wormhole time machine. You travel from the stationary
mouth S to the moving mouth M through the intervening space at
speeds up to that of light c. You return immediately through the
wormhole to the point where t, equals tm where you entered M. After
the boundary shown, such journeys can take you back in time.
shoot your parents before your birth, your gun misfires or you
miss; the sequence of events already includes the effects of
your attempt.
The researchers find that a simple "free" field in space-time
with a wormhole evolves in a consistent and well-determined
way from any initial conditions specified well before the
wormhole's time-travel boundary. Obtaining consistent evolu-
tion from conditions specified after that boundary is more of a
problem; the initial conditions may have to be restricted or
specified at various times.
Interacting systems present further complications, as illus-
trated by the problem of colliding "billiard balls" in a
S
. M
S
. :
C
d
1
S
. M
S
Figure 3 Consistency with a wormhole time machine. For the right
initial velocity as in a, the billiard ball emerges from the stationary
mouth S, after backward time travel, just in time to knock itself back
into the moving mouth M. Solution b is inconsistent: the billiard ball
fails to enter M to produce the earlier collision. More than one
consistent outcome is possible for the same initial conditions. Inc, the
ball passes between the wormhole mouths without interaction; in d, it
emerges from S after backward time travel to knock itself into M
wormhole space-time. Consistency restricts the range"of
possible initial conditions (see Figure 3 a and b). With the right
initial velocity, a ball can be knocked into the wormhole and
travel back in time to knock itself into the hole, in a consistent
way. With the wrong velocity, the ball emerging from the time
machine fails to knock itself into the hole; this is excluded by
the principle of consistency. But more is needed. Some initial
conditions imply more than one distinct, consistent solution, as
in Figure 3 c and d. A ball can pass undisturbed between the
wormhole mouths, or it can be deflected into the hole, travel
back in time, and emerge to cause the deflection. Both are
consistent outcomes of the same initial conditions. The
researchers from Caltech and Moscow resolve this paradox by
treating the balls according to the laws of quantum mechanics.
In this light, both outcomes occur with some probability, but
the probability distribution for the balls evolves in a unique
and consistent way. While much more remains to be under-
stood, it appears that time travel may be more physically
reasonable than everyone had thought.
New space-time geometries for quantum gravity
T
"HE DESCRIPTION of quantum grav-
ity in which wormholes appear to play
so large a role is a generalisation of the
formulation devised by Richard Feynman
in 1948 for ordinary quantum mechanics.
This is called the "sum-over-histories"
approach. For example, a classical particle
travels from one position to another along a
particular path, or "history". According to
quantum mechanics, however, the particle
has no definite path; the uncertainty prin- problems that have occupied theorists for
decades, and still are not well understood .;
. Hawking and Coleman, among others,
one such instant to another, in other words, is the only way to obtain a sensible sum-
it is the four-dimensional geometry of
over-histories . for quantum gravity-
though not everyone agrees with him-and
has used this approach to evaluate the sum
for very simple models of the Universe.
space-time between the instants. In quan-
tum gravity, a sum over such four-dimen-
sional histories should give some measure
of the probability for space to evolve from
one three-dimensional geometry to an-
other, Of course this is a rough, general
description. Both the precise construction
of such a sum and its interpretation are
The theorems that forbid the creation
of a wormhole in a smooth, classical
space-time, as mentioned in the main text,
do not apply to these four-dimensional
spatial - geometrics. Thus : wormholes
branching off and fejoining the larger space
contribute to the sum over histories in this
approach to produce the effects claimed bj
Hawking and Coleman
ether the same
:formulated
ciple forbids it. All that can be determined
is the probability for the particle to go from
one position to the otheri: This can bere for a variety of technical reasons, 'do not
calculated by adding up contributions from wasconstructs theu/ sum over-histories, from
all paths between the two positions.
For gravity, the interesting quantity
- Instead, they"
corresponding to the particle's position, is
the geometry of space,"
hensional
space time geometries connecting two;
"instants
geometries with four dimensions which are y
space at some Linstant of time
make up't
ndaries of the
Is the ev
You
all spatial, and
free-dimensional
effects arch
differently
geometrics
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undary

.......
... ...
.
> One problem that remains
unsolvedApproved For Rele
ing a wormhole in the first
place. Theory shows, for
example, that you cannot
create a wormhole in a.
smooth, classical space-time,
with well-defined time direc-
tions everywhere, unless the
space-time geometry already
allows travel in time. Most
theorists conjecture that on
very small scales the geome-
try of space-time fluctuates in
accord with the quantum un-
certainty principle, giving rise
to a "foam" of tiny worm-
holes. Perhaps a macroscopic
wormhole could be obtained
by enlarging one of these in
some way. Only here does the
matter of traversable worm-
holes and
time-machines
touch upon the physics of the
other sort of wormhole-the
microscopic wormhole.
In the late 1950s, John
Wheeler, then at Princeton
University,
was
already
proposing that elementary
particles might consist of
microscopic
wormholes
threaded by electric or other
field lines. This did not prove
a useful description, but,
since then, theorists have
held that space-time should
be permeated by wormholes
on scales at which quantum
mechanics affects gravity. This happens near the "Planck
scale", around 10-35 metres. These wormholes should play an
important role in any quantum theory of gravity.
In 1987, Stephen Hawking derived some concrete con-
sequences of this; his results indicated that such wormholes
modify quantum mechanics and alter the constants of nature in
unpredictable ways. In 1988, Sidney Coleman of Harvard
University contested Hawking's conclusions, though not his
calculations, claiming instead that quantum wormholes ac-
tually fixed the values of certain physical constants in a
Figure 4 A quantum wormhole geometry. The interior of the
wormhole is a "baby universe" separated from a larger space
dramatic fashion. Other theorists quickly joined .in, some
supporting Coleman's conclusions, some denying them.
Hawking judged that a proper quantum-mechanical treat-
ment of gravity (see Box on previous page) should include the
effects of microscopic wormhole geometries such as the one
shown in Figure 4. Such a geometry represents a "baby
universe" (the interior of the wormhole) branching off and
rejoining the larger Universe. He calculated that the contribu-
tion of these to physical processes was equivalent to a simple
interaction between elementary particles and baby universes.
He concluded that such an interaction would cause a loss of
information (down the wormholes) from quantum systems in
`the larger Universe! The interaction would also shift the values
of the constants in the original theory describing the ele-
mentary particles, by amounts that depended on the internal
states of all possible baby universes. This means that even if we
had a comprehensive "theory of everything", it would be
useless. Nothing could be calculated from it without first
making an infinite number of measurements to determine all
the shifts caused by the baby universes.
Coleman's camp disputed this. They argued that Hawking's
"loss of information" would not be observable. They went on
to a much more startling conclusion: that the shifting of
physical constants by baby universes could solve the long-
standing "cosmological constant problem", and more.
The cosmological constant is the coefficient of a term in
Einstein's gravitational field equations. It can be interpreted as
an "energy density of the vacuum", a density that remains
' constant as the Universe expands or contracts. (Unlike matter
or radiation, the vacuum does not become more or less dense
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.

. Androw Kulman
The wormholes contribute
to what is called "sum-over-histories" in a quantum descrip-
tion of gravity. This gives the probability of a physical process
in terms of a sum over all possible "paths" that the process can
take. Coleman argued that if you take into account the
contributions of microscopic wormholes in the "sum-over-
histories" (see Box) for quantum gravity, it is completely
dominated by histories in which the cosmological constant, in
large regions of the Universe like our own, is zero. Any
physical observation that we make to measure the constant
must, therefore, give a zero result. Moreover, the completely
dominant histories are also those for which Newton's gravita-
tional constant, and other physical quantities appearing in the
sum, take their minimum values. These requirements should
determine all the internal states of the baby universes-all of
Hawking's shifts in the physical constants-hence all the
values of all those constants of nature. No wonder Coleman
calls this "the big fix".
The possibility that quantum gravity could have such
dramatic effects, and that they might be calculated, has drawn
many theorists to the subject. It has become a hotbed of
activity in the past two years. Many variations on the original
calculations, and new calculations, have been published-to
test the validity of the assumptions that were made, to examine
in full detail particular models of wormholes, or to search for
particular observable effects.
The arguments of Coleman and others have flaws, however,
that may invalidate all their conclusions. Some careful
calculations of the "sum-over-histories" that Coleman uses
indicate that the histories with zero cosmological constant do
not dominate as he claims, but are actually suppressed. It is not
as the volume of the Universe
even certain that the whole approach to quantum gravity used
or Release 2003/04/18 :CIA-RDP96-09789R0031000300014well defined. William
vacuum.) Einstein put the
constant into his equations in :
Unruhi of the University of British Columbia has found
particularly devastating results along these lines. He claims
order to obtain a solution . that Coleman and Hawking omit a whole class of histories from
describing the Universe as it
was believed to be prior to the
their sum; when these are included the sum fails to give a finite
prediction for any physical process. If Unruh is correct, then
microscopic wormholes become a reductio ad absurdum for
this approach. (That would be nearly as significant as solving
the cosmological constant problem, but it is not a result most
physicists would like.)
Even if Coleman's calculations are correct, the theory could
still founder when compared with observations. If the theory
forces Newton's constant to a minimum value that turns out to
be zero or negative, it is undone. Recent results also suggest
that the theory may predict masses for elementary particles in
flagrant disagreement with their measured values, or a density
of wormholes in space-time large enough to conflict with well-
known particle physics.
The controversy is far from over? Microscopic wormholes
may provide a breakthrough in our understanding of quantum
gravity, or they may completely invalidate our present models,
or they may yet prove to be a dead end .:
`No one has ever observed a wormhole, large or small. All
the ideas that I have described are extensions of theory,
reasonably well-founded in the classical case, but less so in the
quantum case. It is the hope of every physicist working on
either subject to come up with physical effects resulting from
these speculations that will bring them within reach of the
experimenter or the observer.
lan Redmount is a research associate in physics at Washington University, St
Louis, Missouri. He was formerly a PHD student of Kip Thorne at Caltech.
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late
1920s-filled . with
matter, but static. Einstein's
motives for using the constant
have since vanished-we
know the Universe is expand-
ing-and observations show
it to be very small or zero, but
theorists are still having trou-
ble getting rid of it.
Elementary particle phys
ics predicts vacuum energies
arising
from. quantum
fluctuations, like the Casiml
energy mentioned earlier.
The total energy density is
typically 120 orders of mag-
nitude larger than is consis-
tent with the observations.
To reconcile this, the theo-
rists need to arrange for the
contributions from different "
types of particles to cancel
each other to 120 decimal
places (unlikely) or to find
some other way to get rid of
the constant. Hawking sug-
gested in 1984 that quantum
gravity might do this; Cole-
man placed the idea on a
firmer footing by invoking
the effects of wormholes.

28
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The Zeno's paradox in quantum theory
B. Misra and E. C. G. Sudarshan*
Center for Particle Theory, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas 78712
(Received 24 February 1976)
We seek a quantum-theoretic expression for the probability that an unstable particle prepared initially in a
well defined state p will be found to decay sometime during a given interval. It is argued that probabilities
like this which pertain to continuous monitoring possess operational meaning. A simple natural approach
to this problem leads to the conclusion that an unstable particle which is continuously observed to see
whether it decays will never be found to deca,! Since recording the track of an unstable particle (which
can be distinguished from its decay products) approximately realizes such continuous observations, the
above conclusion seems to pose a paradox which we call Zeno's paradox in quantum theory. The relation
of this result to that of some previous works and its implications and possible resolutions are briefly
discussed. The mathematical transcription of the above-mentioned conclusion is a structure theorem
concerning semigroups. Although special cases of this theorem are known. the general formulation and
the proof given here are believed to be new. We also note that the known "no-go" theorem concerning
the semigroup law for the reduced evolution of any physical system (including decaying systems) is
subsumed under our theorem as a direct corollary.
1. INTRODUCTION
The object of this paper is to discuss a seemingly
paradoxical result in quantum theory concerning tem-
poral evolution of a dynamical system under continuous
observation during a period of time. For reasons that
will become clear shortly we call this complex of de-
ductions Zeno's paradox in quantum theory.
Let us consider schematically the theory of an un-
stable quantum system. Naturally the states corre-
sponding to the decay products also should be included
in the space of all states which we take to be a Hilbert
space //. Let us denote the (orthogonal) projection onto
the subspace spanned by the undecayed (unstable) states
of the system by E. This projection E thus represents
the observable that corresponds to the "yes-no experi-
ment" for determining whether the system is in an un-
decayed state or in a decayed state. The evolution in
· time of the states of the total system will be described
by a unitary group U(t) = exp(- iHt) labeled by the real
time parameter t. In this setting the quantity
q(t)=Tr[pU*(t) EU(t)]
(1)
is interpreted as the probability, at the instant t, for
finding the system undecayed when at time 0 it was pre-
pared in the state p. Correspondingly, the probability
that, at the instant t, the system will be found to have
decayed is the complementary quantity
p(t)=1-q(t)=Tr[pU*(t) E+U(t)],
E'=I-E.
(2)
All these are, of course, standard.
Quantum theory, in fact, provides an unambiguous
algorithm for computing the probability distributions
of time, given the knowledge of the initial state of the
of) time, given the knowledge of the initial state of the
same system and its law of time evolution. Expressions
(1) and (2) are only'particular instances of this well-
known algorithm.
.
In contrast to the above-mentioned probabilities
which refer to a specified instant of time we may con-
sider the following probabilities for which quantum
theory has no ready expressions:
(1) The probability that the system prepared in the
undecayed state p at time 0 is found to decay sometime
during the interval A = [0, t]. We denote this by P(0, t; p.
(2) The probability Q(0, t; p) that no decay is found
throughout the interval A when the initial state of the
system was known to be p.
(3) The probability that the system prepared initially
in the state p will be found to be undecayed throughout
[0,t,]=A, but found to decay sometime during the sub-
sequent period [t1, t] =42, 0<t ;< t. We denote this by
R(0, t1, t; p).
It is important to distinguish the probabilities
Q(0, t;p) from q(t) since there is the temptation to iden-
tify them [and hence also P(0, t; p) with p(t)]. 1 The prob.
ability q(t), however, refers to outcomes of measure-
ment of E at the time t, the system being left unobservi
after the initial state preparation until t.
The operational meaning (if any!) of the probabilities
P, Q, R on the other hand is to be found in terms of the
outcomes of continuously ongoing measurement of E
during the entire interval of time 4. The notion of such
continuously ongoing observations (or, equivalently,
measurements) is obviously an idealization.
We may consider the process of continuing observa-
tion as the limiting case of successions of (practically)
instantaneous measurements (of E) as the intervals be-
tween successive measurements approach zero. Since
there does not seem to be any principle, internal to
quantum theory, that forbids the duration of a single
measurement or the dead time between successive
measurements from being arbitrarily small, the pro-
cess of continuous observation seems to be an admissi-
ble process in quantum theory.
It may be argued, however, that what are measurable
or not are governed not only by the fundamental princi-
ples of quantum theory but also by the actual constituen.
of the real world and their interactions.
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The Approved FonRelease 2003/04/18 - GIA-RDP96-00789R003
ve bereft of any physical meaning if it could be estab-
lished that the fundamental constituents of the real world
and the interaction between them are such as to exclude
the possibility of arbitrarily frequent observations, But,
on the one hand, we cannot claim as final our present
knowledge of the constituents and interactions of the
real world. On the other hand, to agree that there is a
limitation on the frequency of observation amounts to
claiming the existence of an elementary and indivisible
unit of time. Though the existence of an elementary
interval of time is an exciting possibility, it is not part
of the currently accepted and tested physical theories.
We, thus, feel that the notion of continuous observa-
tion should be accepted, at least for the present, as
physically meaningful and quantum theory should be
pressed to yield an answer to questions relating the
probabilities pertaining to such observations.
Continuous observation processes seem to be realized
in practice also, at least approximately, by the tracks of
unstable charged particles in bubble chambers and other
detecting media. The observation of the track amounts
practically to a more or less continuous monitoring of
the existence of the unstable particle and thus a mea-
surement of E during the period of the particle's flight
through the detection chamber. We are therefore led to
accept as operationally meaningful the P(0, t;p), Q(0, t;p),
and R(0, t1, t;p). To be a complete theory, quantum
theory must provide an algorithm for computing these
probabilities.
In the next section we describe what appears to be
the natural approach to determining quantum-theoretic
expressions for these probabilities. Our investigation
leads to the paradoxical result mentioned at the begin-
ning of this section: An unstable particle observed con-
tinuously whether it has decayed or not will never be
found to decay! Since this evokes the famous paradox of
Zeno denying the possibility of motion to a flying arrow,
we call this result the Zeno's paradox in quantum theory
In fact, if E is taken to be the projection to the set
of localized states of a particle (or, a quantum arrow)
in a given region D of space, then one concludes that
the particle will never be found to arrive in a disjoint
region D' provided it is continuously observed whether
it has entered D' or not: The "arrow" cannot move to
where it is not!
This result acquires an even more picturesque and
' paradoxical formulation when it is applied to the "hell-
ish contraption" considered in the Schrodinger's cat
paradox. 2 It may be recalled that the contraption con-
'sists of an unstable (quantum) particle placed in a box
·equipped with an efficient counter and a cat inside a
steel chamber. If the particle decays, the counter
triggers and, in its turn, activates a tiny hammer which
breaks a container of cyanide in the steel chamber.
Monitoring the vital functions of the cat amounts to ob-
serving if the particle has decayed or not. In view of
the Zeno's paradox formulated above, should we con-
clude that the particle will never decay? Will the cat
escape the cruel death awaiting it, against which it has
no defense, provided its vital signs are constantly
watched with loving care?
Hautcal transcription of Zeno's paradox is
a structure theorem concerning a class of strongly con-
tinuous semigroups. This theorem is formulated and
proved in Sec. 3 of this paper and may possess some in-
trinsic interest apart from its application in the present
context of a theory of continuous observation. As a by-
product of this investigation we find that the known re-
sult' concerning the incompatibility of the semibounded-
ness of the Hamiltonian H with the requirement tha:
E exp(iHt) E form a strictly contractive semigroup can
be subsumed under the above-mentioned theorem as
one of its direct corollaries.
Some of the implications and possible resolutions of
the quantum Zeno's paradox will be briefly discussed in
the concluding section of the paper.
Finally it may be mentioned that the conclusion called
here the Zeno's paradox in quantum theory has been.
noted in some previous works, 4-6 but the present
analysis of the problem is carried out in a more general
and mathematically rigorous setting than the previous
works. This, we feel, is not merely a dispensable
luxury, but is necessary to locate the precise assump-
tions on which the "Zeno's paradox" rests.
2. QUANTUM THEORETICAL EXPRESSIONS FOR
P(0, t;o) AND RELATED PROBABILITIES
The three probability functions P, Q, R introduced
in the previous section relate to the results of continu-
ous observation throughout an interval of time. By
their very definitions they must obey the relations
P(0,t; p) + Q(0, t; p) =1
and
R(0, {}, {;p) = Q(0, t;p) P(0, 1 -t;P1),
where p; is the state in which the system (prepared
initially in the state p) finds itself at t, after being con-
tinuously observed and found to be undecayed throughout
[0, t]]. We may therefore concentrate our attention on
calculating Q and P1.
We start with the system in the state p and make a
series of n + 1 measurements, which are idealized to be
instantaneous, at times 0, t/n, 2t/n, ... , (n-1)t/n, and
[. We seek the probability Q(4, n;p) that it be found
undecayed in each of these measurements. It is natural
to assume that Q(4; p) = Q(0, t; p) can be evaluated as
the limit of Q(A, h; p) when n - . , provided the limit
exists.
Let us denote by p(n, t) the state in which the system
finds itself after the (n + 1) measurements at 0, {/n,
2t/n, ... ,t and being found to be undecayed in each of
these measurements. Now, according to the orthodox
theory of measurement, if a measurement of E on the
system is carried out yielding the result "yes" (that is,
"undecayed"), then the state of the system collapses to
a new (unnormalized!) state p' of the form
p'=> AjpA,
(3)
with
Ç AJA,=E.
(4)
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The collapsed state p' given by (3) is, in general, not
uniquely determined by the measured observable E and
the observed outcome but depends also on the details of
the measuring apparatus. This circumstance is re-
flected in the nonuniqueness of the operators A, satis-
fying (4).
The mapping (3) of the density matrices is very
closely related to the "completely positive maps" de-
fined by
p-E VaPV= = A(Va)P,
2 VỊVa=1.
The "state collapse" caused by "nonselective" measure-
ments of E is described by such maps. They will be
considered in a future publication in the context of re-
peated and continuous nonselective measurements.
Quantum theory envisages also the possibility of
ideal measurements under which the collapse of the
state proceeds according to the simple law
ρ-ρ'=ΕρΕ
(5)
when the measurement of E on the state p yields the
result "undecayed. "
The considerations of this paper will be restricted
to such ideal measurements only, since in such cases
we can exploit the positive definiteness of the
Hamiltonian in a direct manner. If we were to consider
the more general collapses (3) we would have to pro-
ceed more indirectly using the von Neumann-Liouville
generator which is however not positive definite. The
study of the probabilities Q(A, p), etc. would then in-
volve new technical problems obscuring the essentials
of Zeno's paradox. We plan to present the study of the
more general situation in a subsequent paper. 1
Accordingly, to determine p(n, t) we allow the system
to collapse at each measurement according to (5) but at
the intervening time intervals it undergoes the usual
Schrödinger time development. The (unnormalized)
state p(n, t) is then easily seen to be
p(n, t)= T„(t) PT;(t),
(6)
where
T,(t) =[EU(t/n) E]"
# [E exp(- iHt/n) E]".
(7)
Moreover, it is also easy to show that the standard
interpretation of the quantum theoretical formalism
entails the formula
Q(n, 4;p)=Tr[T.(t) pT#(t)].
(8)
Returning to ideal measurements we have to proceed
to the limit for n-«. We define
p(t) = s-lim p(n, t),
(9)
Q(4;p) = lim Q(4, n; p),
(10)
provided the limits on the right-hand side exist. Hence,
if the limit
S-lim T,(t) = s-lim [EU(t/n) E] " = T(t)
exists for t ≥ 0, then we may make the identification
p(t) ={Tr[T(t)pT*(+)]}-1. T(t) pT*(t)
(11)
for the resultant (normalized) state obtained as a result
of continuous observation and verification that the sys-
tem remained undecayed throughout the interval. The
probability Q(4; p) for this outcome is given by
Q(A;p) = lim Tr[T](1) PT; (+)]
=Tr[pT*(t) T(t)].
(12)
Once Q(A; p) is obtained in this manner we may calcu-
late P(A;p) to be
P(A;p) =Tr[p(I - T*(t) T(f)].
(13)
For a given group U(t) of time-evolution the existence
of the operator T(t) for t ≥ 0 imposes a nontrivial
restriction on the projection E. This restriction may be
viewed as a necessary condition in order that the ob-
servable represented by E admits a continuous ideal
measurement.
It is known that the operators T(t) (if they exist) form
a strongly continuous semigroup for t > 0. The continuity
of T(t) at t = 0 does not generally follow from the
existence of T(t), but on physical grounds, we shall as-
sume it;
S-lim T(t) = E.
(14)
t- 0.
This condition expresses the essentially desirable re-
quirement that the probability Q(A; p) given by (12) ap-
proaches the probability Tr(pE) as ( - 0. that the sys-
tem is undecayed initially.
To prove the existence of T(t) and its continuity at
the origin, (14), in specific examples of physical inter-
est poses nontrivial mathematical problems. We hope
to consider these in a subsequent paper.
3. ZENO'S PARADOX IN QUANTUM THEORY
In the preceding section we arrived at formula (13)
for the probability P(A; p) that the system prepared
initially in the undecayed state p will be observed to
decay sometime during the interval A = [0, t]. Despite
the natural derivation of (13) we now show that the
probability P(4; p) vanishes for all finite intervals A
provided that the initial state was undecayed,
Tr(pE)=1.
(15)
In fact, (8) is a special case of a more general formula
for the probability connections between several succes-
sive observations. ª It is important, however, to bear
in mind that the general formula discussed in' [and, a
fortiori, formula (8)] holds only under the assumption
that the successive measurements under consideration
are ideal in the sense described above. For nonideal
We are thus led to the paradoxical conclusion that an
unstable particle will not decay as long as it is kept
successive measurements these formulas do not yield
correct probability BarevedsFor Release 2003/04/18 : GIA.RDR96-00789R003100030001+4er it decays
.

... .. . . . ..... .....
or no
.ment is the following theorem.
Theorem 1: Let U(t) = exp(- iHt), t real, designate a
strongly continuous one-parameter group of unitary
operators in the (separable) Hilbert space //. Let E
denote an orthogonal projection in //. Assume that:
(i) The self-adjoint generator H of the group U(t) is
semibounded.
(ii) There exists an (antiunitary) operator @ such that
BE0-1 = E,
BU(t) 8-1=U(-t) for all t.
(iii) s-lim_ _ [EU(t/n) E]" = T(t) exists for all > 0.
(iv) s-lim, .o. T(t) = E.
Then s-lim __ [EU(t/n) E]" = T(t) exists for all real !
and possesses the following properties:
(a) The function ( - T(t) is strongly continuous and
for all real t and s satisfies the semigroup law:
T(t) T(s)=T(t+s),
(b) and
T*(t) = T(-t).
Remarks: (1) The conclusions of the theorem imply
-the relation:
T+(t) T(t) = E for all real t
(16)
so that P(4; p) = Tr[ p(I - E)] = 0 for all p satisfying (15).
(2) With @ interpreted as the time-reversal (or CPT)
operation, the assumption (ii) of the theorem turns out
to be only a weak version of T or CPT invariance of the
theory. Moreover it should be noted that assumption
(iii) is used only once in the proof for concluding the
existence of the strong limit (iii) for t < 0 as well.
(3) It is easy to give a relatively elementary proof
of the theorem under the additional assumption that E
is a one-dimensional projection onto a vector in the
domain of H. The theorem is also known to hold in the
special case that H = - v2 and E is given by
(Et)(x)=x(x)+(x), 4EL2(R3),
where X is the characteristic function of a (suitably
smooth) region of R3. 10 Theorem 1 generalizes this re-
sult to arbitrary semibounded H and arbitrary
projection E.
(4) The semiboundedness of H is necessary: Consider
the following counterexample. Let V(t) be the operator
family
(V(t) $) =+(x-1), $E L2(R).
Let E be defined by.
(Ev)(x) =)
()={ 6
(x)
x ≤0,
x>0.
It is then easy to verify that
· EV(!) EV(s) E = EV( + s) E
for all t, s≥ 0, so that
for all t≥ 0, but
T*(t) T(t) = EV((*) EV(t) E
= V* (t) EV(t) * E for all (>0.
Thus the conclusion of the theorem is violated, though
the assumptions in its formulation except the semi-
boundedness of the self-adjoint generator V(?) are met.
[Strictly speaking, assumption (ii) about the existence
of 8 is also not satisfied, but it was necessary only to
prove the existence of T(- t) and T(- t) is trivially veri-
fied to exist in the present example. ]
We now turn to the
Proof of Theorem 1: The existence of
T() = s-lim [CU(+/n) E]"
(17)
for all real t follows immediately from the assumed
existence of T(t) for positive fand assumption (ii). In
fact for t≥0
T(-t) = s-lim|[EU(- t/n) E]"
= s-lime[EU (t/n) E]" 0-1
= BT(t) 8-1.
(18)
To prove assertion (b) we observe that
[EU(-t/n) E] = {EU(+/n) E]"}*
- T*(t) weakly as n-0.
On the other hand,
[EU(-t/n) E]" - T(- t) strongly as n-%.
The assertion (b) follows immediately.
It remains to prove (a), especially assertion (16).
Let us make a slight notational change and write
W(t) = T(-t) =s-lim [E exp(iHt/n) E]".
(19)
The statement (a) can be transcribed into a correspond-
ing statement on W(t). We shall also assume, without
loss of generality, that H is self-adjoint and positive.
For convenience in exposition we shall break up the
proof of statement (a) into the following three lemmas:
Lemma 1: Let H be a positive self-adjoint operator
of the Hilbert space // and let F.(2) be the operator-
valued function defined by
F.(z) = [E exp(iHz/n) E]".
(20)
Then
(1) F,(z) is defined and continuous (in the strong
operator topology) for all complex z with Imz ≥ 0 and it
is holomorphic in the open upper half-plane Imz > 0.
(2) The function F.(z) has the integral representation
F(z)= (2+1)}
F.(t)
2TỈ
(1+i) (1-2)
dt, Imz> 0.
(21)
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(3)
1
2Ti
1.
-
F,(t) dt
(++ i) (1-2) = 0, Imz < 0.
(22)
Proof of Lemma 1: The assertion (1) follows from
the positive self-adjointness of H and its proof is
standard. To prove assertion (2) we start with Cauchy's
integral formula for the function F,(z)/ (z + i)2 which is
holomorphic in the open upper half-plane,
F (2)
(2 + i)2 - 2mi
C
F. (z)
1
(z' +i)}(z' - z)
dz', Imz > 0,
where C is any simple closed rectifiable contour en-
closing the point z and contained entirely in the open
upper half-plane. A similar integral representation
holds of course for the holomorphic function F,(z) itself.
But with the choice we have made the integrand vanishes
faster than Iz' |-1 as Iz'l - . Hence if we choose the
closed contour C to be the axis running from - « +ie
to + % +ie and an infinite semicircle we could rewrite
the contour integral as an open line integral
Fn(z) = (2+i)
5.
(t + i + ie)2 (t- z +ie) '
(21')
Imz > < > 0.
The (operator) norm of this integrand is dominated by
the integrable function
(1+2)-1. (Imz-E0)-1
for all e with 0 << << < Imz. Moreover,
s-lim F.(t + ie) = F,(t).
€-0.
Hence the conditions for the application of Lebesgue's
dominated convergence theorem for operator-valued
integrals11 are met and (21') goes over to the desired
representation (21) in the limit € - 0 .. The relation (22)
is similarly obtained from the vanishing of the contour
integral
.
1
2TTi
(z' + i)} (z' - z)
F.(z')
dz' for Imz < 0.
Lemma 2: With the same notation as in Lemma 1 let
us assume that
W(t) = s-lim F.(t) = s-lim [E exp(iHt/n) E]"
exists for all real (. Then:
(1) W(z) = s-lim, __ F,(z) exists for all z with Imz > 0.
(2) The function W(z) is holomorphic in the open upper
half-plane and satisfies the semigroup composition law
W(z1) W(z2) = W(z1+z2).
(23)
(3) There exists a nonnegative and self-adjoint opera-
tor B and a projection G such that
GB = BG= B,
and
Proof of Lemma 2: To prove (1) we start with the
representation (21) for F.(z). By assumption, W(t)
= s-lim, __ F,(t) for all real t and
F.(t)
(++ i)'(( - z)
€
IImz l
(1+(2)-1
for all n.
We can therefore apply again the Lebesgue theorem on
dominated convergence and conclude that
W(z) = s-lim F„(z)
exists and has the representation
W(2)=(2+1) }
W(t)
(1+i) (1-2) dt, Imz > 0.
(25)
From the well known Vitali's theorem11 we can conclude
that W(z) is holomorphic in the open upper half-plane.
To prove the semigroup property of W(z) we show
first that this law holds for pure imaginary values,
W(is) W(it) = W(i(t +s))
for all positive t and s.
To this end, first consider the case where t and s are
rationally related so that there exist positive integers
p, q for which
str ====
r(p+q)
for all integers r. For such s, t we can deduce
t+ s
E exp (-Hr(+9) E
- H
-
1
= E exp
-
T
+(1+)
$
rp
E
Eexp (- Hra ) E]
which, in the limit ? - . yields
W(i(t + s)) = W(is) W(it).
Once this is established for rationally related positive
s and t by continuity it can be extended to all positive s
and t. Since W(is) is holomorphic it is, a fortiori, con-
tinuous for s > 0.
To prove assertion (3) we observe that the operators
W(is) = s-lim [E exp(- Hs/n) E]"
---
form a semigroup of self-adjoint operators for s > 0.
According to a well known structure theorem for such
semigroups12 there exists a self-adjoint nonnegative
operator B and a projection G such that
BG=GB =B
and
W(is) = Gexp(- Bs) G, s>0.
The function z - Gexp(iBz) G is holomorphic in the open
upper half-plane and assumes the same values W(is) as
the holomorphic function W(z) for z = is (s> 0). The
uniqueness of holomorphic functions, then, immediate-
ly establishes the representation (24). The semigroup
property (23) for z , z, in the open upper half- plane
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have the weak limit for operators along the real axis
w-lim W(s + in) = W(s) for almost all real s.
7-0.
(26)
Proof of Lemma 3: To obtain this weak limit let us
start from the integral representation (25) rewritten in
the form
W(s +in) =
(s +i + in)2
2mi
5
(++i) (t-s-in)
W(t)
dt, n> 0.
On the other hand, from (22) and the Lesbegue domi-
nated convergence theorem
W(t)
0 =
(s + i + in)2
2mi
-
((+i)'(t- s + in)
5 dt, n> 0.
Therefore,
W(s + in) =
(s + i + in)2
W(t )
(+i) (1-s)2 +m2 dt.
For any two vectors $, $ in // we may write
(¢, W(s + in) +)
5.
= 15 +]
(s+i+in)2
IT
(+, W(t) ¢)
(t+i)2 (t-s)' +'
dt.
Since the quantity (¢, W(t) $)/(t + i)2 considered as a
¿ function of t is integrable, it follows that
Jim (₺, W(s + in) $) = (+, W(s) ¢)
(27)
for almost all s.
To complete the assertion of Lemma 3 a technical
difficulty is to be resolved. For a given pair $, ¢ of
vectors, the assertion (29) has been shown to hold for
almost all s. The exceptional set (of measure zero)
where this result may not hold may appear to depend on
the pair +, o chosen. To show that there is at most a
single null set outside which (27) holds for all pairs
4, ¢ we proceed as follows: Let D be a countable dense
subset of the separable Hilbert space // and let /V be
the union of the countable family of exceptional null
sets corresponding to all pairs $, ¢ with dED, deD.
This set W is a set of measure zero and the weak
limit (26) holds everywhere outside this set for $, ¢ in
D, but then (27) will hold in the complement of / for
all pairs $, $ not necessarily in D. In fact, writing
A(s, n) = W(s +in) - W(s)
we may obtain
(ψ,Α(s, η) φ)= (+-+β, Α(s, η) φ) + (Ψ,, Α (s, n) (Φ-Φ,))
+ (+., A(s, 7) +.).
We see that for s outside the exceptional set / the first
two terms on the right-hand side tend to zero as n-",
since we may choose
s-lim #, =$, s-lim ¢, =¢.
The third term, by hypothesis, goes to zero as n- 0.
. since y;, o, are chosen to lie in D. [The proof of this
lemma incorporates a suggestion due to K. Sinha. ]
easily completed by combining the conclusions of the
preceding lemmas,
W(s) =w-lim W(s +in) = w-lim G expliB(s + in)] G
1-0.
= Gexp(iB$) G for almost all real s.
(24')
Thus W'(s) W (s) = C for almost all real s. According to
assumption (iv) in the statement of Theorem 1,
w-lim W(s) W* (s) = w-lim T(- s) T*(- s)
:- 0.
1-0.
= w-lim T* (s) T(s) = E.
(28)
Thus G = E and we may rewrite (24) in the form
W(s) = E exp(iBs) E for almost all s,
EB = BE =B.
(29)
But we can now strengthen this relation for W(s) to read
W(s) = E exp(iBs) E for all s
(30)
in view of the strong continuity of W(s). Combining (29)
and (30) we immediately deduce the validity of
assertion (a).
Although not of primary interest for the discussion
in this paper, we recall the known result' that if H is
semibounded, the operators EU(t) E cannot form a
semigroup for t ≥ 0 except in the event of E commuting
with U(t) for all real t. We may subsume this result
as a corollary to Theorem 1.
Corollary: Let the self-adjoint operator H be semi-
bounded, let E be ah orthogonal projection and let U(t)
stand for exp(- iHt), If {EU(t) Elt > 0} form a semigroup,
then
EU(t) = U(t) E for all real t.
(31)
Proof: The semigroup property for EU(t) E, i. e., the
relation
EU(t) EU(s) E = EU(t + s) E for all real s, t
(32)
will imply
EU(t) EU* (t) E = E for all real t
(32')
and hence
E <U(t) EU*(t) for all real t.
Multiplying this equation from the left by U(- t) and the
right by U*(- t) will yield
U(- t) EU*(- t) ≤E for all real t.
Together these two inequalities imply
E=U(t) EU*(!) for all real !
or, equivalently,
EU(t) = U(t) E for all real t.
The proof of the corollary is thus reduced to the
proof of (32) or (32').
Since the operators EU(!) E are assumed to form
a semigroup for f ≥ 0 and [ EU(() E] = EU(- t) E, for all
positive integers n and all real t we have
[EU(t/n) E]"= EU(!) E.
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Hence
s-lim[EU(t/n) E]" = EU(t) E = T(t)
exists for all real t and all the assumptions of Theorem
1 are verified, except for (ii). But as we have pointed
out, this assumption itself was needed for the sole
purpose of guaranteeing the existence of T(t) for all
real t. Thus we can safely conclude that Theorem 1 ap-
plies in this case also and hence (32) holds for all real
t and.s.
4. CONCLUDING DISCUSSION
What conclusions must we draw from Zeno's paradox
in quantum theory? Is it a curious but innocent mathe-
matical result or does it have something to say about
the foundation of quantum theory? Does it, for exam-
ple, urge us to have a principle in the formulation of
quantum theory that forbids the continuous observation
of an observable that is not a constant of motion?
The answer to the first two questions appears to de-
pend on whether it is operationally meaningful to seek
the probability that the particle makes a transition from
a preassigned subspace of states E// to the orthogonal
subspace E'H sometime during a given period of time.
We have endeavored to present arguments that such
probabilities possess operational meaning in terms of
the outcome of successive (in the limit, continuous)
measurements of an appropriate quantum mechanical
observable. If this is accepted, it follows that to be a
complete theory quantum mechanics must provide an
algorithm for computing these probabilities. The quan-
tum Zeno's paradox shows that the seemingly natural
approach to this problem discussed in the preceding
sections leads to bizarre and physically unacceptable
answers. We thus lack a trustworthy quantum-theoretic
algorithm for computing such probabilities. Until such
a trustworthy algorithm is developed the completeness
of quantum theory must remain in doubt.
The lack of a trustworthy quantum-theoretic algorithm
for probabilities like P(0, t; p) is intimately connected
with the difficulties involved in defining an operator of
"arrival time" (or, more generally, "time of transi-
tion") in quantum theory. ' Let us briefly discuss this
problem in the context of the "time of decay" of an un-
stable particle.
From the definition of P(0, t; p) it must have the
following properties:
(i) P(0, t; p) ≥ 0 for all t≥ 0
(ii) P(0, t; p) ≥ P(0, s;p) for t≥s
(iii) P(0, t; p) -1 for ! -
(33)
(iv) P(0, t; p) - Tr[ pE+] for. t-0 ..
In addition, P(0, t; p) may be assumed to be continuous
as a function of t. If we were to succeed in finding a
formula
P(0, t;p) =Tr[pB(0, t)],
(34)
then the operator B(0, t) would have the following
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(1) B(0, 1) ≥ 0,
(ii) B(0, () = B(0, s) t≥ s,
(iii) B(0, t) - I (strongly), t-,
(iv) B(0, t) - E' (strongly), t-0.,
(v) B(0, t) is a strongly continuous function of t.
The family B'(0, t) = EB(0, t) E restricted to the sub-
space E// of the (unstable) undecayed states will then
form a "generalized resolution of the identity" (GRI).
Unlike the more familiar (projection-valued) resolution
of the identity, a GRI does not necessarily determine
a densely defined operator, but under some mild addi-
tional assumptions (which we need not specify explicitly
here) the GRI B'(0, t) will determine a Hermitian (though
not necessarily self-adjoint) operator T so that
(ø, Tự) = f td(0, B'(0, t) $) for all JED(T) .
(35)
The operator T thus defined may then be interpreted
as the operator of "time of decay."
Conversely, if there exists a positive Hermitian
"time of decay" operator T associated with the subspace
EH of undecayed states and B'(0, t) denotes a GRI asso-
ciated with it, then through (33) we may define the prob-
ability P(0, t; p) which may be interpreted as the prob-
ability that the system prepared initially in the (unde-
cayed) state p will be found to decay sometime during
the interval [0, t].
Looked at from this point of view, the Zeno's paradox
thus strengthens and sharpens the pessimistic conclu-
sion of Allcock' and others concerning the possibility
of introducing an observable of "arrival time" in quan-
tum theory. We must emphasize that in our study here,
the conclusion is not based on certain a priori, but
questionable, assumptions about 7; such, for instance,
as the assumption that T-be "canonically conjugate" to
the Hamiltonian, or that 7 be a self-adjoint operator in
the Hilbert space. In the literature such requirements
were implicitly or explicitly placed on T.
We have so far supposed that it is operationally mean-
ingiul to ask about probabilities such as P(0, t; p) and
Q(0, t; p). We have also taken the stance that the ob-
served tracks of unstable particles in a bubble chamber
or photographic emulsion is in contradiction with the
conclusion we have called Zeno's paradox in quantum
theory. It is, however, possible to adopt one of the
following attitudes:
(1) Probabilities such as P(0, t; p) have no operational
meaning: There is a fundamental principle in quantum
theory that denies the possibility of continuous
observation.
Since so far no such principle has been derived from
or incorporated into quantum theory, this is not a
satisfactory way of resolving the paradox at the present
time.
(2) Zeno's paradox is based on the assumption that the
continuous measurements are ideal measurements. But
measurements (or, observations) involved in the re-
cording of the track of an unstable particle in a detect-
ing medfur afe nonideal in the sense of (3).
762
I Math Phys Vol. 18. No. 4. April 1977
A Miers and ENG Condanna

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1
of Theorem 1 as stated and proved in this paper. It has
the somewhat unsettling side effect that P(0, t; p) and
hence the "observed lifetime" of an unstable particle
is not a property of the particle (and its Hamiltonian)
only, but depends on the details of the observation
process. At the present time we have no indication that
this is so.
(3) The record of the track of a particle is not a con-
tinuous observation that the particle has not decayed,
but only a discrete sequence of such observations; while
Zeno's paradox obtains only in the limit of continuous
observations.
While this is tenable, the sufficiently repeated moni-
toring of the particle should again lengthen the life-
time. There is, however, no indication that the life-
time of a (charged) unstable particle (say, a muon) is
appreciably increased in the process of its track forma-
tion through bubble chamber. To shed additional light
on this question a quantitative investigation of the effect
of repeated monitoring on the lifetime of particles (in
specific models) is in progress. 13
(4) Natural though it seems, it is wrong to assume
that the temporal evolution of a quantum system under
.continuing observation can be described by a linear
operator of time-evolution such as T(t). It can be de-
scribed only in terms of a persistent interaction between
the quantum system and the classical measuring ap-
paratus. When this is done the quantum Zeno's paradox
will either disappear or if it survives, at least, it will
be understandable as the drastic change in the behavior
of the quantum system caused by its continuous inter-
action with a classical measuring apparatus.
This point of view is at present only a program since
there is no standard and detailed theory for the actual
coupling between quantum systems with classical mea-
suring apparatus. A beginning in this direction is made
in a forthcoming paper, 14
. Having been forced into such unusual points of view
by the quantum Zeno's paradox one is prompted to draw
also some parallels between it and certain empirical
findings in the study of human awareness. We shall
present such close parallels between the quantum Zeno's
paradox and the findings of sensory deprivation and
other experiments pertaining to the study of conscious-
ness in a separate publication.
In conclusion, it seems to us that the problems posed
by Zeno's paradox have no clean cut resolution at the
present time and deserve further discussions. It may
Q(A; n, p) [or Q(A; p)] that pertain to the outcomes of
successive measurements (or continuous measure-
ments) depend on the law according to which "state
collapses" occur at the time of measurements. Thus
one may say that the "collapse of state vector" caused
by measurement, which has haunted the foundation of
quantum mechanics like an invisible ghost becomes visi-
ble through probabilities such as Q(4; n, p), etc. The
probabilities pertaining to the outcomes of several suc-
cessive (as well as continuous) measurements there-
fore deserve further theoretical as well as experimental
study than they have received so far.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
It is a pleasure to thank Professors C. Chiu, M.
Guenin, K. Gustafson, Ph. Martin, C Piron, and
K. Sinha for their critical comments as well as con-
structive suggestions, We are also grateful to the
referee for some useful comments, in particular, for
bringing to our notice Refs. 5 and 6. One of us (B. M. )
was partially supported by Swiss NSF during summer
1975,
"Work supported in part by Energy Research and Development
Administration Contract E(40-1)3992.
' Another possible suggestion is to interpret
TripU+ (s)EU(s)] ds
as the desired probability Q(0, t;p). Apart from the fact that
there is really no convincing reason for this interpretation
this expression is not generally a monotone (decreasing)
function of time t, a property which Q(0, t;p) should possess.
2E. Schrödinger, Naturwissenschaften 23, 807 (1935).
`D. Williams, Commun. Math. Phys. 21, 314 (1971); L.
Horwitz, J. P. Marchand, and J. Lavita, Rocky Mount. J.
Math. 1, 225 (1975).
G. R. Allcock, Ann. Phys. (N. Y.) 53, 251-348 (1969).
5W. Yorgrau in Problems in Philosophy in Science, edited by
I. Lakatos and A. Musgrave (North-Holland, Amsterdam,
1968), pp. 191-92.
‘H. Ekstein and A. Seigert, Ann. Phys, (N. Y.) 68, 509 (1971),
1B. Misra and E. C.G. Sudarshan, in preparation.
'E. P. Wigner, in Foundations of Quantum Mechanics, edited
by B. d'Espgnat (Academic, New York, 1971), especially
formulas 14 and 14 (a), p. 16.
'P.R. Chernoff, Mem. Am. Math. Soc. 140 (1974).
"C.N. Friedman, Indiana Univ. Math. J. 21, 1001-11 (1972).
11E. Hille and R. Phillips, Functional Analysis and Semigroups
(Am, Math. Soc. Colloq. Publ., Providence, R.I., 1957).
12Ref, 11, Sec. 22.3.
13C. Chiu, B. Misra, and E. C.G. Sudarshan, in preparation.
"E. C. G. Sudarshan and B. Misra, in preparation.
783
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PHYSICAL REVIEW D
VOLUME 21, NUMBER 8
15 APRIL 1980
Meaning of an individual "Feynman path"
~ Y. Aharonov
Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of South Carolina, Columbia, South Carolina 29208
and Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Tel-Aviv, Ramat Aviv, Israel
M. Vardi
Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of South Carolina, Columbia, South Carolina 29208
(Received 24 September 1979; revised manuscript received 6 February 1980)
In this article we give an operational meaning to an individual "Feynman path." In other words, we
describe a process of dense measurements, made in temporal sequence, which check whether the particle
moves along any given trajectory in space-time. We show that in this process the two assumptions of the
space-time formulation of quantum mechanics, are realized: (a) The weight that the particle moves along a
trajectory that has been checked by this process is the same for all trajectories, and in fact, we show that
the particle follows, with probability 1, the trajectory that is being checked. (5) .4 phase is systematically
accumulated, so that, at the end of this process, the state is multiplied by the familiar factor
exp[(i/f) [ L dt]. As an immediate extension of the above formalism, we suggest a setup that measures the
relative phase between any two trajectories. Finally, our approach points toward the possibility of extending
the Feynman formalism in order to cover more general Hamiltonians.
INTRODUCTION
In 1948 Feynman published what is essentially a
third formulation of quantum mechanics.1 As is
well known, the main idea in this formulation is to
associate a probability amplitude, exp (/A) { [ at],
with each possible classical trajectory that con-
nects two space-time points [L is the classical
Lagrangian, and the integral is evaluated along the
path X(t)]. Each possible trajectory is assigned
the same weight, and the sum (integral) over the
contributions from all possible trajectories has to
be carried out in order to get the transition am-
plitude between these two space-time points.
-
The concept of a trajectory in quantum mechanics
is not a straightforward one because of the uncer-
tainty principle involved.2 Therefore, attempts
have been made to apply the notion of continual ob-
servation3 (which was mentioned by Feynman1,
p. 370) in order to investigate the operational
meaning of the trajectories, which are the building
blocks of this formalism.
This notion of continuous observations (or mea-
surements) in quantum mechanics has recently
attracted some attention,17 because of the in-
teresting features that were revealed. In particu-
lar, the following paradoxical property of such
measurements was found: Consider the case where
repeated observations are carried out in order to
find the exact moment at which a transition from
some initial state takes place. It turns out that,
because of these observations, the transition never
occurs. A particular example is the decay of an
unstable system1: If the system is continuously
observed, then it will never decay. Another ex-
ample is the one of continuously observing a sys-
tem that is initially confined to a finite space re-
gion,5 and because of these observations it remains
confined there. In this paper, we first show that the
above paradoxical situation is a special case of a
more general property of continuous measure-
ments. Namely, if one checks by continuous bb -
servations if a given quantum system evolves
from some initial state, to some other final state,
along a specific trajectory in Hilbert space, the
result is always positive, whether or not the sys-
tem would have done so on its own accord.
When the above result is applied to the evolution
of a state along a trajectory considered by Feyn-
man, we find that the particle follows, with cer-
tainty, the trajectory that is being checked. There-
fore, it is now meaningful to consider measure-
ments of individual trajectories in space-time and
their properties. In particular, the phase associ-
ated with the probability amplitude for motion
along a given trajectory can be evaluated.
When this calculation is carried out, the phase
turns out to be the one assumed by Feynman,
(within a constant independent of the trajectory).
The possibility is therefore open to consider
setups that measure directly the relative phase of
any two individual trajectories (which have com-
mon end points); we describe in detail such a
setup.
Finally, we point out that our analysis can be
applied to more general trajectories in Hilbert
space than those corresponding to the classical
trajectories. We discuss briefly the relevance of
this to the question of extending the Feynman form -
alism in order to cover arbitrary Hamiltonians.
2235
.
@ 1980 The American Physical Society
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Y. AHARONOY AND M. VARDI
21
CONTINUOUS MEASUREMENTS ON A SPIN-HALF SYSTEM
Consider a spin-half particle placed in a con-
stant magnetic field pointing in the z direction with
the initial direction of the spin in the +x direction.
The time evolution in this case is simply a rotation
in the xy plane with the Larmor frequency (de-
fined by H= p . B = ghiwo,). If we now want to check
when the spin moves out of its initial orientation
by performing a dense set of measurements (in
time) of ô,, we find that it does not move out at all
(in analogy to the results discussed in the litera -
ture3-7). This can be seen as follows: In the in-
finitesimal time ot the free Hamiltonian rotates
the direction of the spin, or equivalently changes
the state by
| 0(ot) =exp-Îot) | 0=+1)
= exp
(-2 wô,ot ) | 0}=+1)
1
12
,
e
1
-iwốt
1
[q= + 1) =
1
where
| a(ot)) is the eigenstate of the operator,
ô(ot)=ỡ2(0)coswot+ô,(0)sinwot ,
with the eigenvalue plus one.
If we now measure o2, the probability that the
state collapses to jo ;= +1) is
P,(0}=+1)= {0}=+ 1 |o(bt)}|2
= COS2 001 = 1 (wot)?
(for wot << 1).
If we repeat the same measurement at intervals of
ot the probability that all of them will give the
same result is obviously [1 - (wot)2/4]". We now
note that if of = T/N, where T is the total period of
observation, and we approach the limit of very
dense measurements (N - ), we end up freezing
the state in its initial value | o2 =+ 1), since
lim(1 -1/N2)" = lim exp(-1/N) =1.
For future reference we refer to this as case a.
.Case b. Still with the same system as before,
we show how it is possible to bypass the feature of
freezing while insisting on continuous observa-
tions. To achieve this we use the so-called "de -
terministic observations,"" namely, we measure
the dense set of operators defined as follows:
â„=`2cosa„+ô,sina,,
where a = wnot , w is the Larmor frequency , and
n=1, ... , N. We then obviously find o,= 1 for
n=1, ... , N. Thus it seems that we have found a
way to monitor the time evolution of a system
without freezing it in its initial state.º
Case c.
In this case we show that the seemingly
E
innocent deterministic observations described
above have unsuspected features. Consider again
the spin-half particle, initially with o, =+ 1, but
without a magnetic field. If we measure the same
dense set of operators as in case b, we find the
following
The conditional probability to get o, = 1 if
0,1 =+ 1 is
P,(n)= |(o,=+1 |ơ,) =+ 1) |2
1 + coswot
2
-= cos2 (wot /2),
=
where we have used the eigenvector of o. (that
belongs to.c. = + 1), namely
Thus, for sufficiently large N, the probability G.
finding q =+1 in all the measurements is essential-
ly one. This is so even though no magnetic field w
present; therefore, the only reasons for the spin
rotation are those measurements. This result is
quite surprising because of the accepted assump-
tion that if the outcome of a measurement of son
dynamical variable is certain (i.e., with probabi.
one), then the state of the system was not dis-
turbed.
The above conclusion can also be derived by tl
following simple argument: If we analyze case a
from a rotating-frame-of-reference point of view
so that in the new frame the inertial field exact
cancels the original constant magnetic field,1º w
end up in the same situation as in case c (in which
the continuous measurements were made at the
rate dictated by the Larmor frequency). There
fore, if we accepted that the measurements in
case a froze the system in the state |o, =+1), we
end up with the result of case c as a necessary
consequence.
THE PARTICLE FOLLOWS A TRAJECTORY
IN PHASE SPACE
We have shown in a simple example that it is
possible to define a set of operators that repre-
sent a dense sequence of measurements, so thi
the initial state of the system evolves along th
eigenstates of these operators, and the probabili
to get each of the corresponding eigenvalues i
one. This idea can be generalized to more co
plicated systems, and we now apply it to obtain :
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MEANING OF AN INDIVIDUAL "FEYNMAN PATH"
2237
operational definition of a "Feynman path." We
recall that in Feynman's formulation of quantum
mechanics,' trajectories in space-time are as-
signed equal weights, and each trajectory is mul -
tiplied by the factor exp [(i/h) _ Ldt], L is the
Lagrangian of the system, and the integral is along
the trajectory. The sum (integral) of the contribu-
tions of all trajectories gives the transition am -
plitude between the two end points.
As in the case of the spin-half system, we can
define a dense sequence of measurements which
check whether the particle moves along any given
. trajectory in space-time. This will lead to a posi -
tive answer, i.e., the particle moves along any
chosen trajectory with probability one.
Consider the set of projection operators
în= [nXn \, for n= 1, ... , N,
where |n) (in the x representation) is given by
(n) =C exp{- [x -X(+]2/(2AX)} } exp
P(t )X
.
X(t.), P(tn) are evaluated along a particular clas -
sical trajectory, at a sequence of times t. = not, the
total period of observation is T and ot = T/N, C is
a normalizing factor, and AX is the uncertainty.
Note that since the classical trajectory is smooth,
X((„) and P((,) are well defined and so are oX,
= X (t )of and OP .= P(tn)ot.
We shall now prove that if the initial state is a
localized wave packet around X(t.) =X0, and we
measure the set of operators h, (while letting
N- w), the initial state will evolve along the eigen-
states of fl, with probability one. We will also
show that the change of the phase associated with
the evolving state is well defined in terms of the
sequence of operations; this change will be evalu-
ated and shown to be equal essentially to the clas-
sical action (divided by h).
We first note that in the infinitesimal time of
between any two measurements, the state evolves
according to the Schrodinger equation and we can
write the following general expression11:
14(1+8℃) = (n) exp --< n\n \n)st)
+6|4;)+0(0(2),
(1)
where | 4') is a state orthogonal to (n) and b is
proportional to ot. If we now measure II .. , and get
a positive answer (which is indeed the case12), we
end up in the state |n+1), and the probability am-
plitude for this transition is
(n+1|4 („+82)} =(n+ 1 |n} exp
-- (n/A|not
-
+ 0 (0%).
(2)
It then follows that
.
|+(final)) = |N ) exp
IK(n+1|n)
א
+ O (ot).
(3)
For a particle described by a Hamiltonian13
H=p2/2m+ V(X), the expression (n|H|n) turns out
to be
(n|În) = (n|p2/2m+V(X)\n)
-
0
11
2m
+ V(2 -x(+)0 )
=P(2+V(X)+(X2)+ (0/2"(0).
(4)
In the limit in which AX - 0,14 the above expres-
sion will simply be the classical Hamiltonian eval -
uated along the classical trajectory X(t) plus a
constant term independent of the trajectory.
The scalar product of two adjacent eigenstates
in Eq. (2), gives the following contribution to the
phase:
-wik
+
[P(t,)X(t,) -P(tm)X(tm))).
(5)
Using expressions (3)-(5), and going to the limit
N-% (E- ]), we find that the accumulated phase
associated with the probability amplitude for mo-
tion along the trajectory is the sum of the familiar
(i/h) { Ldt, the end terms in Eq. (5), and a term
independent of the trajectory {0}p2/2m 0)T); note
that the terms proportional to (ot)2 are negligible
because N- as 1/bt and therefore Nx O(62)- 0.
SETUPS THAT MEASURE THE RELATIVE PHASE OF ANY
TWO TRAJECTORIES
No physical meaning can be attached to the phase
assigned to an individual trajectory. However, our
approach opens up the possibility of considering
experimental arrangements that can measure in
principle, the relative phase between any two tra-
jectories.
We shall now write the Hamiltonian describing
such a setup. This Hamiltonian has to include the
degrees of freedom of the measuring device (MD)
(following the well-known approach introduced by
Von Neumann15), in order to have a full description
.
-
.
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Y. AHARONOY AND M. VARDI
of the process as well as to prove that, indeed, the
particle follows the observed trajectory with
probability one:
=A+(1+2) [8(+-+2)[1-$(1)](n)
(1+0,10)
+
(1- 2 (0)
2
Es(+-+)[1]-[2](" ) + AMD, (6)
where is the projection operator (n)(n) , with
the state [n) parametrized with the coordinates of
the first trajectory, and ft,(2) is similarly defined.
The measuring device is described by the o (m)
(n=1,2, ... , N), such that initially they are, say,
in the spin-up state, and by a proper choice of the
function g(t) (as given afterwards), a registration
(a positive result in the measurement of the pro-
jection operator
(n)(n ) att=, =not will be in-
ferred from the fact that the nth spin did not flip.
The function g(t) is defined as follows:
g(t)=
for Ost <<
otherwise
and we eventually go to the limit € - 0, go -
while keeping g.€ =T. This is an impulsive mea-
surement and therefore < << ot. Ho is the Hamil-
tonian describing the particle and Hup is the
Hamiltonian of the apparatus not including the
interaction term, (we obviously demand
(n), HAD ]= 0 and [o [0), HxD ]=0, i=x,y, z).
@ is the operator describing the spin of a par -
ticle in the measuring device that, according to
its initial value, the process of dense measure-
ments will evolve, i.e., if o (0)=+ 1 the process will"
evolve along trajectory one, if (0)= - 1, along tra-
jectory two, and if in a superposition of the two
state, the process of measurements will also be a
superposition of two processes, in the sense de-
scribed below. We will show that if the initial
state of the whole system is given by
[4(0)=exp[-(x-x%)2/(2Ax)}]|exp(Expo|0(0)=+1) exp (Po)
+exp (Exp6)(0(0) =- 1) exp (top )|I ()=+1)
א
X
(0)=+ 1) [[ [c] ">=+ 1)
(7a)-
[the last (approximate) equality is due to Ax- 0; remember that we always go to this limit14], then the final
state will be
(final)=+2 expl-(x-x(+2)}/(2x)2}[0(0)=+1)+exp(a)|0,0) =- 1)] [{">=+1),
(7b
where am j, Ldt - j2 Ldt; this means that the direction of the zeroth spin is sensitive to a.
Let us outline the steps that lead to the above result: First, assume that the initial state (of the whole
system) is the one corresponding to the measurement of the first trajectory; then we find that the state
evolves as follows:
(a) In the infinitesimal time ot before the first measurement we end up with [see Eq. (1)]
(t)= 10) exp(- < 이 피 |0)8t-2%oPo ) +b/4%)+0(02) | MD(1)
where | MD(0)) means no spins have been flipped in the measuring device, etc.
(b) At t = ot we have an impulsive measurement (i.e., only the interaction with the MD is relevant''). This
changes ( $(t) into
10(=8 )=(10) exp (10|| 0)or -x-Po) +(+2)][1)/MD(0)
+ [45 0> exp( -< 이| H O3ot-xo Po) +0(or) |42) MD a),
...
where ( ot) is a state orthogonal to [ 1).
This procedure can be repeated, i.e., the free Hamiltonian acts on the state (in between measurement
and then 'the interaction term (which is impulsive) takes over, etc., N times.
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MEANING OF AN INDIVIDUAL "FEYNMAN PATH"
2239
Letting N- " and of - 0 while keeping Not =T we realize that the probability that one of the spins had
been flipped (in the measuring device) is a sum of N terms each proportional to (ot)2 (and higher orders),
so that N(ot)~ ~~~~ 0. This is so because of the fact that terms in the amplitude that are proportional to
ot are multiplied by orthogonal states of the measuring device. Then, using Eqs. (3)-(5) we can write the
final state as follows:
(4(final)=\N)|o(0)=+1)exp [ Lat)exp(xxPx)exp({0|22/2m|0)T)
[ n]=+1).
N
If we superpose two such states coming from dif-
ferent trajectories and recall that AX - 0 (which
will make the end term disappear), we end up with
the final state given by Eq. (7b), which means we
also observe the relative phase between any two
trajectories.
CONCLUSIONS
In this paper we have shown that it is possible to
define trajectories in Hilbert space connecting
any two states. If one measures successively a
dense set of projection operators corresponding to
the states that define a trajectory,16 one moves with
probability one from the initial state to the final
state through the whole set.
We pointed out that the problem of freezing a
state as a result of continuous observations is a
particular case of this more general notion of tra-
jectory. We have applied the above notion to give
an observable meaning to an individual Feynman
path, and we have shown that a phase is systemat -
ically accumulated during this process of observa-
tion.
An experimental arrangement was suggested in
order to measure the relative phase between any
two trajectories; this phase was shown to agree
with the one postulated by Feynman. The concepts
of trajectories and their associated phases can
serve as the starting point for an extension of the
Feynman formalism to include more general Ham-
iltonians (see the Appendix). These ideas will be
further discussed in a future publication.
We thank Professor E. Lerner for helpful com-
ments.
APPENDIX
Consider, for example, the following trajectory
that does not have a classical counterpart. We use
the eigenoperators of the two-slit experiment8 .
which are defined as follows:
sin(2/1)
sin(TR /1) ,
₸3= 1
o, = cos(pl/h) - sin(pl/h)ỡ3,
õ2= sin(pl/h)+icos(pl/h)õ3,
where x is the position operator along the line con-
necting any two given points in space, and the ori-
gin (x = 0) is in the middle of the two.
Assuming that the initial state [ 0) and final state
(N) of the previous example are localized wave
packets with negligible overlap, we can define a
trajectory connecting them, as follows:
Let us call | 0) and |N) the "spin-up" and "spin-
down" states of o3, respectively. Then, if we per-
form the sequence of measurements o., = ỡ, cosa,
+ 02 sinan, n= 0,1, ... , N, where a =nw/N and let
N- , we find that the initial state ( 0) will evolve
along the trajectory defined by the eigenoperators
of Fan, finally reaching the state (N).17 The proof
goes in complete analogy to the one we gave for the
spin-half system. Note that in this last example
the Hamiltonian includes a nonlocal term.18
'R. P. Feynman, Rev. Mod. Phys. 20, 367 (1948).
2L. D. Landau and E. M. Lifschitz, Quantum Mechanics
(Pergamon, New York, 1974), p. 7.
Ch. N. Friedman, Ann. Phys. (N.Y.) 98, 87 (1976).
B. Mirsa and E. C. G. Sudarshan, J: Math. Phys. 18,
756 (1977).
I. Bloch and D. A. Burba, Phys. Rev. D 10, 3206 (1974)
‘G. R. Allcock, Ann. Phys. (N.Y.) 53, 253 (1969).
1 (a) E. Eberle, Lett. Nuovo Cimento 20, 272 (1971); (b)
H. Elstein and A. J. F. Segerert, Ann. Phys. (N.Y.)
68, 508 (1971). More relevant references can be found
in the above-mentioned articles (Refs. 3-6) ..
'Y. Aharonov et al., Int. J. Theor. Phys. 3, 443 (1970).
'Note that in the case of the decaying system, the de-
terministic measurements have to involve also the field
degrees of freedom.
" This is equivalent to the unitary transformation
U = exp [{/*)(wto/2)] where H = P . B = Kuo/2.
11This is evident from the following relations:
$()= ¥(0) + ¥ (0)8++ O(ôt2),
+(0) = (1/x)+(0) (Schrödinger equation at += 0); by in-
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Y. AHARONOV AND M. VARDI
1
21
serting (b) into (a) we get
*()= $(0) + (1/*)H +(0)öt+ O (öt2),
(+(0)|> = 1+ (1/h)(@1d öt+ O(öt2)
= exp [- (/F)(0|A|[ ot]+ O(ot2).
Now we write an alternative identity for | $(), namely,
*() = ay(0)+b1 4),
where a = exp [{/*){[H|0> &t ]+ O (ôt2) and (4) is an
orthogonal state to $(0). Finally we note that b ~ ot
since
and because ((0)|¢(0)} =1 and {{}|1) =1,
1812=1 - |a|2= 0(82).
12See a detailed analysis of the measurement in the last
section of the paper, but note that a straightforward
proof can be given in analogy to the spin case, where
the only differences are the following: (a) Instead of
the magnetic field we now have a more general Hamil-
tonian, but still the probability that the state escapes
from the original one is of the order (ot)2 (more exact-
ly, [(mt) |2=1- [(ôt)2 [2] (A E)2 + 0(6(3), where A E is
the uncertainty of the energy in the state | >) and | t>
is the state between t, and t"#). (b) Instead of measur-
ing the same projection operator at intervals ot, we
now measure projection operators of states that are
"slightly" shifted, namely, | (n + 1|n) |2 ~ (ot)2. It is
easy to show now that |
| (+1 | t) | 2 ~ (6f)2, and from
this point the argument follows the one given in the spi
case.
13It can be generalized straightforwardly to the three di ..
mensional case including a vector potential.
14Recall that we demanded IM, ;| (+ 1| n) 2 - 1 as N -- ,
which is satisfied if ((ox)max /Ax}'N- 0 as N --- (be-
cause | (n+ 1|> |2 ~ exp (- (6x/Ax)}] and (ox )max is the
maximum distance between the centers of two adjacen
Gaussians along the trajectory), then using the face:
that N= T/St and (6x)max= x max ot we get
TOOmax of
(at)2
ót -- 0- 0.
This means that we first have to go to the limit &; - C
and then to choose Ax arbitrarily small.
15See, for example, Y. Abaronov and J. L. Safko, Ann.
Phys. (N. Y. ) 91, 279 (1975).
16In the sense that if a total of N measurements are me
(in some given period of time T) then the probability
of success in each measurement has to be at least of
the order (1 - 1/N2), and N >> 1.
11The particle makes quantum jumps from its initie pr
sition to the final position without going through ister
· mediate ones.
1 The realization of these types of Hamiltonians is con-
sidered in a recent paper by Y. Aharonov and E. Ver-
er, Phys. Rev. D 20, 1877 (1979).
1
+
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PHYSICAL REVIEW
A journal of experimental and theoretical physics established by E. L. Nichols in 1893
SECOND SERIES, VOL. 115, No. 3
AUGUST 1, 1959
Significance of Electromagnetic Potentials in the Quantum Theory
Y. AMARONOV AND D. BONV
H. II. Wills Physics Laboratory, University of Bristol, Bristol, England
(Received May 28, 1959; revised manuscript received June 16, 1959)
In this paper, we discuss some interesting properties of the electromagnetic potentials in the quantum
domain. We shall show that, contrary to the conclusions of classical mechanics, there exist effects of poten-
tials on charged particles, even in the region where all the fields (and therefore the forces on the particles)
vanish. We shall then discuss possible experiments to test these conclusions; and, finally, we shall suggest
further possible developments in the interpretation of the potentials.
1. INTRODUCTION
TN classical electrodynamics, the vector and scalar
potentials were first introduced as a convenient
mathematical aid for calculating the fields. It is true
that in order to obtain a classical canonical formalism,
the potentials are needed. Nevertheless, the funda-
mental equations of motion can always be expressed
directly in terms of the fields alone.
In the quantum mechanics, however, the canonical
formalism is necessary, and as a result, the potentials
cannot be eliminated from the basic equations. Never-
theless, these equations, as well as the physical quan-
tities, are all gauge invariant; so that it may seem that
even in quantum mechanics, the potentials themselves
have no independent significance.
In this paper, we shall show that the above conclu-
sions are not correct and that a further interpretation
of the potentials is needed in the quantum mechanics.
2. POSSIBLE EXPERIMENTS DEMONSTRATING
THE ROLE OF POTENTIALS IN THE
QUANTUM THEORY
In this section, we shall discuss several possible ex-
periments which demonstrate the significance of poten-
tials in the quantum theory. We shall begin with a
simple example.
Suppose we have a charged particle inside a "Faraday
rage" connected to an external generator which causes
the potential on the cage to alternate in time. This will
add to the Hamiltonian of the particle a term l' (a:,()
which is, for the region inside the cage, a function of
time only. In the nonrelativistic limit (and we shall
assume this almost everywhere in the following dis-
cussions) we have, for the region inside the cage,
I[= II(+V(() where Ho is the Hamiltonian when the
generator is not. functioning, and \'(()=co((). If
Vo(x,() is a solution of the Hamuitonian Ho, then the
solution for II will be
Y=que-ist, S= [V (1)di,
which follows from
ih -=
at
-
2
a.S
e-isIn = [H.+V(O)]=HŲ.
The new solution differs from the old one just by a
phase factor and this corresponds, of course, to no
change in any physical result.
Now consider a more complex experiment in which a
single coherent electron beam is split into two parts and
each part is then allowed to enter a long cylindrical
metal tube, as shown in Fig. 1.
After the beams pass through the tubes, they are
combined to interfere coherently at F. By means of
time-determining electrical "shutters" the beam is
chopped into wave packets that are long compared
with the wavelength A, but short compared with the
length of the tubes. The potential in cach tube is deter-
mined by a time delay mechanism in such a way that
the potential is zero in region I (until cach packet is
well inside its tube). The potential then grows as a
function of time, but differently in cach tube. Finally,
it falls back to zero, before the electron comes near the
485
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Y. AHARONOV AND D. BOHM
8
00
M.
D
C
Orbit of
F
Electron Brom
C
FIG. 1: Schematic experiment to demonstrate interference with
time-dependent scalar potential. A, B, C, D, E: suitable devices
to separate and divert beams. W., W,: wave packets. M1, M .:
cylindrical metal tubes. F: interference region.
other edge of the tube. Thus the potential is nonzero
only while the electrons are well inside the tube (region
II). When the electron is in region III, there is again no
potential. The purpose of this arrangement is to ensure
that the electron is in a time-varying potential without
ever being in a field (because the field does not penetrate
far from the edges of the tubes, and is nonzero only at
times when the electron is far from these edges).
Now let f(x,t) =+1°(x,l)++2(x,t) be the wave func-
tion when the potential is absent (+1º and 420 repre-
senting the parts that pass through tubes 1 and 2,
respectively). But since V is a function only of t
wherever v is appreciable, the problem for each tube
is essentially the same as that of the Faraday cage. The
solution is then
V=Vie- issa+vie isala,
where
-
S1=c fordi, S == fordi.
It is evident that the interference of the two parts at
F will depend on the phase difference (S1-S2)/h. Thus,
there is a physical effect of the potentials even though
no force is ever actually exerted on the electron. The
effect is evidently essentially quantum-mechanical in
nature because it comes in the phenomenon of inter-
ference. We are therefore not surprised that it does not
appear in classical mechanics.
From relativistic considerations, it is easily seen that
the covariance of the above conclusion demands that
there should be similar results involving the vector
potential, A.
The phase difference, (S1-S2)/h, can also be ex-
pressed as the integral (c/h)godt around a closed
circuit in space-time, where y is evaluated at the place
of the center of the wave packet. The relativistic gener-
alization of the above integral is
if (edi- (x)
where the path of integration now goes over any closed
circuit in space-time.
As another special case, let us now consider a path
in space only ((= constant). The above argument
8
solendd
Electron
shoda
F Interference
region
beam
Melol
Toil
Fic. 2. Schematic experiment to demonstrate interference
with time-independent vector potential.
suggests that the associated phase shift of the electron
wave function ought to be
AS/h =- A.dx,
ch
where $A.dx= SH.ds=o (the total magnetic flux
inside the circuit).
This corresponds to another experimental situation.
By means of a current flowing through a very closely
wound cylindrical solenoid of radius R, center at the
origin and axis in the z direction, we create a magnetic
field, H, which is essentially confined within the sole-
noid. However, the vector potential, A, evidently,
cannot be zero everywhere outside the solenoid, because
the total flux through every circuit containing the
origin is equal to a constant
00= [H·ds=]
A . d.x.
To demonstrate the effects of the total flux, we begin,
as before, with a coherent beam of electrons. (But now
there is no need to make wave packets.) The beam is
split into two parts, each going on opposite sides of the
solenoid, but avoiding it. (The solenoid can be shielded
from the electron beam by a thin plate which casts a
shadow.) As in the former example, the beams are
brought together at F (Fig. 2).
The Hamiltonian for this case is
H:
[P- (c/c) A]2
2m
-
In singly connected regions, where H=VXA=0, we
can always obtain a solution for the above Hamiltonian
by taking y=vor isla, where to is the solution when
A=0 and where VS/h = (c/c)A. But, in the experiment
discussed above, in which we have a multiply connected
region (the region outside the solenoid), yo is/A is a
non-single-valued function' and therefore, in general,
not a permissible solution of Schrodinger's equation.
Nevertheless, in our problem it is still possible to use
such solutions because the wave function splits into
two parts V= fit+2, where to represents the beam on
} Unless os = nhc/e, where » is an integer.
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ELECTROMAGNETIC POTENTIALS IN QUANTUM THEORY
487
one side of the solenoid and w: the beam on the opposite magnitude has to be of the order of do=2xch/c~4×10-7
side. Each of these beams stays in a simply connected
region. We therefore can write
gauss cm2) by means of fine permanently magnetized
"whiskers".' The solenoid can be used in Marton's
device,' while the whisker is suitable for another experi-
mental setup' where the separation is of the order of
microns and the whiskers are even smaller than this.
where S1 and S2 are equal to (e/c) / A.dx along the
paths of the first and second beams, respectively. (In
Sec. 4, an exact solution for this Hamiltonian will be
given, and it will confirm the above results.)
The interference between the two beams will evi-
dently depend on the phase difference,
(S1-S2)/h= (c/c) [ A- dx= (c/hc)po
This effect will exist, even though there are no magnetic
forces acting in the places where the electron beam
passes.
In order to avoid fully any possible question of
contact of the electron with the magnetic field we note
that our result would not be changed if we surrounded
the solenoid by a potential barrier that reflects the
electrons perfectly. (This, too, is confirmed in Sec. 4.)
It is easy to devise hypothetical experiments in which
the vector potential may influence not only the inter-
ference pattern but also the momentum. To see this,
consider a periodic array of solenoids, each of which is
shielded from direct contact with the beam by a small
plate. This will be essentially :a grating. Consider first
the diffraction pattern without the magnetic field, which
will have a discrete set of directions of strong con-
structive interference. The effect of the vector potential
will be to produce a shift of the relative phase of the
wave function in different elements of the gratings. A
corresponding shift will take place in the directions,
and therefore the momentum of the diffracted beam.
3. A PRACTICABLE EXPERIMENT TO TEST FOR
THE EFFECTS OF A POTENTIAL WHERE
THERE ARE NO FIELDS
As yet no direct experiments have been carried out
which confirm the effect of potentials where there is no
field. It would be interesting therefore to test whether
such effects actually exist. Such a test is, in fact, within
the range of present possibilities.2 Recent experiments1.4
have succeeded in obtaining interference from electron
beams that have been separated in one case by as much
as 0.8 mm.3 It is quite possible to wind solenoids which
are smaller than this, and therefore to place them
between the separate beams. Alternatively, we may
obtain localized lines of flux of the right magnitude (the
In principle, we could do the experiment by observing
the interference pattern with and without the magnetic
flux. But since the main effect of the flux is only to
displace the line pattern without changing the interval
structure, this would not be a convenient experiment
to do. Instead, it would be easier to vary the magnetic
flux within the same exposure for the detection of the
interference patterns. Such a variation would, according
to our previous discussion, alter the sharpness and the
general form of the interference bands. This alteration
would then constitute a verification of the predicted
phenomena.
When the magnetic flux is altered, there will, of
course, be an induced electric field outside the solenoid,
but the effects of this field can be made negligible. For
example, suppose the magnetic flux were suddenly
altered in the middle of an exposure. The electric feld
would then exist only for a very short time, so that only
a small part of the beam would be affected by it.
4. EXACT SOLUTION FOR SCATTERING PROBLEMS
We shall now obtain an exact solution for the problem
of the scattering of an electron beam by a magnetic
field in the limit where the magnetic field region tends
to a zero radius, while the total flux remains fixed. This
corresponds to the setup described in Sec. 2 and shown
in Fig. 2. Only this time we do not split the plane wave
into two parts. The wave equation outside the magnetic
field region is, in cylindrical coordinates,
a+ + ( otix) + 2 = 0,
(1)
ar' r ar
where k is the wave vector of the incident particle and
a= - co/ch. We have again chosen the gauge in which
A,=0 and A,=¢/2Tr.
The general solution of the above equation is
V= = cimo [amJm+a(kr)+bmJ-(mta)(kr)], (2)
**
where a, and bm are arbitrary constants and Jma (kr)
is a Bessel function, in general of fractional order
(dependent on $). The above solution holds only for
">": WFr<R (inside the magnetic field) the solution
has beer. worked out.' By matching the solutions at
r= R it is easily shown that only Bessel functions of
positive order will remain, when R approaches zero.
* Dr. Chambers is now making a preliminary experimental
study of this question at Bristol.
'L. Marton, Phys. Rev. 85, 1057 (1952); 90, 490 (1953).
Marton, Simpson, and Suddeth, Rev. Sci. Instr. 25, 1099 (1954).
'G. Mollenstedt, Naturwissenschaften \ 42, 41 (1955); G.
Mollenstedt and H. Duker, Z. Physik 145, 377 (1956).
'Sce, for example, Sidney S. Brenner, Acta Met. 4, 62 (1956).
' L. Page, Phys. Rev. 36, 444 (1930).
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Y. AHARONOV AND D. BOHM
This means that the probability of finding the particle
inside the magnetic field region approaches zero with R.
It follows that the wave function would not be changed
if the electron were kept away from the field by a barrier
whose radius also went to zero with R.
The general solution in the limit of R tending to zero
is therefore
8
= amJImtaltime.
(3)
We must then choose am so that y represents a beam
of electrons that is incident from the right (0=0). It is
important, however, to satisfy the initial condition that
the current density,
j=
h (++++-++++)
2im
e
mc
Av*y,
(4)
shall be constant and in the x direction. In the gauge
that we are using, we easily see that the correct incident
wave is fine=ikze-ias. Of course, this wave function
holds only to the right of the origin, so that no problem
of multiple-valuedness arises.
We shall show in the course of this calculation that
the above conditions will be satisfied by choosing
am=(-1) Imtal, in which case, we shall have
4= = (-1)IntalJimtaleims.
It is convenient to split y into the following three parts :
V=Vit+2++3, where
00
V1= E (-i)mtaJmaeims
#-1
+2= = (- 1 ) mta J mtacima,
= [ (-1)m-aJm-atims, (5)
+3=(-1) la1][a].
Now y1 satisfies the simple differential equation
= [ (-1) m+a Inta'sims
#-1
= = (-1) + m+0-1- Jmtot!
-- 1
2
-cime, '=kr (6)
where we have used the well-known formula for Bessel
functions :'
d.J, (r)/dr=$(J ;_;- ),+1).
As a result, we obtain
-
- 2 (-1) ='+++1 Jm'+acism'+1)
11
ar' 2 m' -0
1
-- E (-1)meta-1 Jm'tal 1( m'-10
8
2 m'-2
(7)
1
-- Σ
(-i)m'ta Jn'tacim' (-ie"+1-1- it)
2 m'~1
So
- -
This differential equation can be easily integrated to
give
VI=AS
cir cad[Jati-iJaeit]dr',
(8)
where
A ={(-1) ae- in' cod.
The lower limit of the integration is determined by the
requirement that when r' goes to zero, 41 also goes to
to zero because, as we have seen, vi includes Bessel
functions of positive order only. ..
In order to discuss the asymptotic behavior of ¥1,
let us write it as v1=4[I]-1}], where
I= 5
-
gir com[Ja+1-ie " Ja]dr',
Is=5 0 0
cir conf[Ja+1- ie it J a ]dr'.
(9)
The first of these integrals is known7:
1 danh 4 -
cilaare sin (3/2)]
(k2-B2)}
-, 0<3<k, -2<a.
In our cases, B= cose, k =1, so that
I ( "-e
| sin?]
[era(fr -!!! )
| sin8]
(a+1) (\x-10 1)]
(10)
Because the integrand is even in 0, we have written the
final expression for the above integral as a function of
[0] and of | sine] . Hence
I1= cia (ir-11)
rie-ill-ieit.
| sin0 |
=0 for ê <0,
= = idzie for 0> 0,
(11)
where we have taken 8 as going from -T to r.
" See, for example, W. Grobner and N. Hofreiter, Integraltafel
(Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 1949).
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We shall see presently that I represents the largest
term in the asymptotic expansion of y1. The fact that
it is zero for 0<0 shows that this part of y, passes
(asymptotically) only on the upper side of the singu-
larity. To explain this, we note that gi contains only
positive values of m, and therefore of the angular
momentum. It is quite natural then that this part of y;
goes on the upper side of the singularity. Similarly,
since according to (5)
V2(,0,a)=VI(r', -0,-a),
it follows that y: will behave oppositely to yh in this
regard, so that together they will make up the correct
incident wave.
Now, in the limit of r' -> co we are allowed to take
in the integrand of Ie the first asymptotic term of Ja, 8
namely Ja> (2/mr)} cos( ~~~~ {"). We obtain
I2= [ ci- 201 (JaHl-ici J )d'-C+D, (12)
9
where
2
C= " a
dr
-
2
1=
(13)
D= " d'une
-(m) ,(2)
(-i)pis.
Then
$
r
dr'
+c-ils'-1(0+1) =- 1=1]
(2Tr')'
:
( - 1) + 1
exp(+is2)ds
=
(1+cost) (+'(1+como)
(2)
2
+
-
(1-cos0)}
tr'(-case)}
C
exp(-iz2)dz, (14)
where we have put
z=[(1+cos0)]' and z=['(1-cost)]},
respectively.
Using now the well-known asymptotic behavior of
the error function,'
ĐC
exp(iz2)dc->
a .
i exp(ia2)
2
c
,
exp(-is2)d's->
2
-i exp(-ia2)
(15)
E. Jahnke and F. Emde, Tables of Functions (Dover l'ab-
lications, Inc., New York, 1943), fourth edition, p. 13S.
' Reference 8, p: 24.
we finally obtain
C-) )
(2Tr)!
['(1+cose)?]
eir
" ir
م
leir :0-6, (16)
[(-i)o-)
D=
(2)! ['(1+cos0)}]!
c- ir'
لـ
+ ;
circon (-1)29. (17)
(2)} ['(1-cost)?]}.
Now adding (16) and (17) together and using (13) and
(9), we find that the term of 1/(r')' in the asymptotic
expansion of y1 is
1
(-i)'[
2(27):L
(+): 1+cos0
1+c*
ti-
Eir 1-eis 7
(+) 1-cose ]
-0 7
(18)
Using again the relation between ty and gave obtain
for the corresponding term in y.
(-1)}[
2(2=) : L
(7)} 1+cost
-Li-
-
cir 1+e-19
e-i' 1-ci
(,'): 1-cosa]
1.
(19)
Adding (18) and (19) and using (11), we finally get
Vity - (- ) .
(-i)[ici ei cos(aa-]0)]
(2) [ (r) (+) cos(10)
7
te-(' cost ="). (20)
There remains the contribution of Va, whose asymptotic
behavior is [sce Eq. (12)]
2
(-1) la! Jjal (') ->(-1) la !!
cos(+'-'T-Ma T).
Collecting all terms, we find
4=Vi+++++3-ei(ustr'cost) +
sinTa-
(2mir')!
eir
e-08/2
cos(0/2)
(21)
where the + sign is chosen according to the sign of a.
The first term in equation (21) represents the incident
wave, and the second the scattered wave." The scat-
tering cross section is therefore
sin'za
0
1
2 -: CUS2(0/2)
(22)
10 In this way, we verify, of course, that our choice of the a,, for
Eq. (3) satisfies the correct boundary conditions.
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Y. AHARONOV AND D. BOHM
When a=n, where n is an integer, then o vanishes.
This is analogous to the Ramsauer effect." o has a
maximum when a="+}.
The asymptotic formula (21) holds only when we are
not on the line 8= x. The exact solution, which is needed
on this line, would show that the second term will
combine with the first to make a single-valued wave
function, despite the non-single-valued character of the
two parts, in the neighborhood of 0=x. We shall see
this in more detail presently for the special case a="+}.
In the interference experiment discussed in Sec. 2,
diffraction effects, represented in Eq. (21) by the scat-
tered wave, have been neglected. Therefore, in this
problem, it is adequate to use the first term of Eq. (21).
Here, we see that the phase of the wave function has a
different value depending on whether we approach the
line 8= =* from positive or negative angles, i.e., from
the upper or lower side. This confirms the conclusions
obtained in the approximate treatment of Sec. 2.
We shall discuss now the two special cases that can
be solved exactly. The first is the case where a = 11. Here,
the wave function is y=erikseiat, which is evidently
single-valued when a is an integer. (It can be seen by
direct differentiation that this is a solution.)
The second case is that of a= "+}. Because ] (n+) (+)
is a closed trigonometric function, the integrals for v
can be carried out exactly.
The result is
y =- Ei(++++' cost)
{}
V2
[' (1+ cost)] }
exp(ic2)dc.
(23)
0
This function vanishes on the line 8=7. It can be seen
that its asymptotic behavior is the same as that of Eq.
(2) with a set equal to ++1. In this case, the single-
valuedness of v is evident. In general, however, the
behavior of v is not so simple, since y does not become
zero on the line 0=".
5. DISCUSSION OF SIGNIFICANCE OF RESULTS
The essential result of the previous discussion is that
in quantum theory, an electron (for example) can be
influenced by the potentials even if all the field regions
are excluded from it. In other words, in a field-free
multiply-connected region of space, the physical proper-
ties of the system still depend on the potentials.
It is true that all these effects of the potentials depend
only on the gauge-invariant quantity fA.dx = SH.ds,
so that in reality they can be expressed in terms of the
fields inside the circuit. Howr. . . according to current
relativistic notions, all fields m .. . interact only locally.
And since the electrons cannot reach the regions where
the fields are, we cannot interpret such effects as due
to the fields themselves.
11 Sec, for example, D. Bobm, Quantum Theory ( Prentice-Hall,
Inc., Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, 1951).
In classical mechanics, we
recall that potentials
cannot have such significance because the equation of
motion involves only the field
quantities themselves.
For this reason, the potentials have been regarded as
purely mathematical auxiliaries, while only the field
quantities were thought to have a direct physical
meaning.
In quantum mechanics, the essential difference is that
the equations of motion of a particle are replaced by the
Schrödinger equation for a wave. This Schrodinger
equation is obtained from a canonical formalism, which
cannot be expressed in terms of the fields alone, but
which also requires the potentials. Indeed, the poten-
tials play a role, in Schrodinger's equation, which is
analogous to that of the index of refration in optics,
The Lorentz force [eE+(c/c) FXH] does not appear
anywhere in the fundamental theory, but appears only
as an approximation holding in the classical limit. It
would therefore seem natural at this point to propose
that, in quantum mechanics, the fundamental physical
entities are the potentials, while the fields are derived
from them by differentiations.
The main objection that could be raised against the
above suggestion is grounded in the gauge invariance
of the theory. In other words, if the potentials are
subject to the transformation A, - A,'= A,+dy/ax.,
where y is a continuous scalar function, then all the
known physical quantities are left unchanged. As a
result, the same physical behavior is obtained from any
two potentials, A,(x) and A,' (x), related by the above
transformation. This means that insofar as the poten-
tials are richer in properties than the fields, there is no
way to reveal this additional richness. It was therefore
concluded that the potentials cannot have any meaning.
except insofar as they are used mathematically, to
calculate the fields.
We have seen from the examples described in this
paper that the above point of view cannot be main-
tained for the general case. Of course, our discussion
does not bring into question the gauge invariance of
the theory. But it does show that in a theory involving
only local interactions (e.g., Schrodinger's or Dirac's
equation, and current quantum-mechanical field the-
ories), the potentials must, in certain cases, be con-
sidered as physically effective, even when there are no
fields acting on the charged particles.
The above discussion suggests that some further
development of the theory is needed. Two possible
directions are clear. First, we may try to formulate a
nonlocal theory in which, for example, the electron
could interact with a field that was a finite distance
away. Then there would be no trouble in interpreting
these results, but, as is well known, there are severe
difficulties in the way of doing this. Secondly, we may
retain the present local theory and, instead, we may
try to give a further new interpretation to the poten-
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ELECTROMAGNETIC POTENTIALS IN QUANTUM THEORY
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491
Lials. In other words, we are led to regard A,(x) as a
physical variable. This means that we must be able to
define the physical difference between two quantum
states which differ only by gauge transformation. It will
be shown in a future paper that in a system containing
an undefined number of charged particles (i.e., a super-
position of states of different total charge), a new
Hermitian operator, essentially an angle variable, can
be introduced, which is conjugate to the charge density
and which may give a meaning to the gauge. Such
states have actually been used in connection with
recent theories of superconductivity and superfluidity12
and we shall show their relation to this problem in more
detail.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
We are indebted to Professor M. H. L. Pryce for
many helpful discussions. We wish to thank Dr.
Chambers for many discussions connected with the
experimental side of the problem.
" See, for example, C. G. Kuper, Advances in Physics, edited
by N. F. Mott (Taylor and Francis, Ltd., London, 1959), Vol. 8,
p. 25, Sec. 3, Par. 3.
.
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