CIA-RDP96-00789R003000350001-0

Research of Anomalous Mental Phenomena
Proof-of-Principle and Protocols
by
Edwin C. May, Ph.D.
Science Application International Corporation
Cognitive Sciences Laboratory
Menlo Park, California
30 March 1993
M
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BRIEFING OBJECTIVE
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·
PROVIDE RETROSPECTIVE VIEW OF EVIDENCE
FOR PROOF-OF-PRINCIPLE
.
PROVIDE DETAILED PROTOCOL FOR REPLICATION
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BRIEFING OUTLINE - I
· DEFINITION OF TERMS
· SCHEMATIC PROTOCOL FOR A SINGLE TRIAL
- Three Examples of Data
· ANALYSIS
- Rank-order Tests
- Fuzzy Sets
· RETROSPECTIVE VIEW
- Statistical Criteria
- Literature Reviews
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BRIEFING OUTLINE - II
REQUIREMENTS FOR REPLICATION
- Power Analysis
- Personnel Selection
- Target Pool Selection
- Trial Protocol
- Analysis/Control
- Criteria for "Success"
- Estimated Person-Hours
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,
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J
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ANOMALOUS MENTAL PHENOMENA
Phenomena
Information Acquisition
Anomalous Cognition
Interaction With
Environment
Anomalous Perturbation
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ANOMALOUS COGNITION - A DEFINITION
· ANOMALOUS COGNITION. A form of information transfer
in which all known sensorial stimuli are absent. That is,
some individuals are able to gain access, by an as yet
unknown process, to information that is not available to
the known sensorial channels.
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RESEARCH MATERIALS - SINGLE TRIAL
· TARGET
- Outdoor Scene
(e.g.,
Golden Gate Bridge)
- Photographs
(e.g., Paris)
- Physical Object
(e.g., Feather)
- Geometric Shape
(e.g.,
Star)
- Symbol
(e.g., 7, H)
· RESPONSE
- Written/Drawn
- Audio/Video Tape
· ANALYSIS
- Fuzzy Sets
- Rank Order
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SINGLE-TRIAL SESSION PROTOCOL (Schematic)
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TIME
EVENT
10:00
Monitor and Receiver are Sequestered
10:05
Assistant Randomly Selects One Photograph From a Set of 100
10:10
Session Begins
10:25
Session Ends
10:30
Raw Data is Copied and Secured: Target is Obtained
10:35
Response and Intended Target are Discussed with Receiver
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4.
NOVICE RECEIVER (R177) - RESPONSE
taget
target
Guys and dowa
@ broader of the
bottom
- Tall come shaped
- fuzzy
- tree
- Stendal
- Smooth /rounded
break
break
end?
50-3 Sia
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. VERY OPEN
( VERY AIRY TOT .
ORIENTAL/ VERY
CURVED EDGE ROOF
LOTS OF .
POLES IN
CONSTRUCTION.
STAND ALONE
STRUCTURE
- ISOLATED.
NOTE: SOMETHING
LIKE A FENCE
PRESENT BUT NOT
LA FRANCE- LIKE
ROWS OF VERTICAL
LINES W/A
HORIZONTALS.
SOME KIND OF
ROUND OBJECTS
BOTH SIDES .
1
LIKE LOOKING
AT SOMETHING
THAT NARROWS AS
IT GOES AWAY FROM
WHERE YOU STAND.
(PERSPECTIVE)
FLAT WATER-NATURAL WATER
AT SITE .
LOCATED AT EDGE OF WATER.
· QUIET
. SOLITUDE
. SET ASIDE
0
·
ED
· TALLER OBJECTS
IN BACKGROUND.
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1
PARKING.
HIGH
1
S
1
.
UW
HIGH 1
· SINGLE STRUCTURE
- BLDG .
. DARK BROWNS.
. NEXT TO EDGE OF
WATER
.
BOATS
·
LARGE PARKING AREA .
-
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RANK-ORDER ANALYSIS OF A SINGLE AC RESPONSE
. THE TARGET WAS SELECTED RANDOMLY FROM 100
-20 Packs of 5 Targets Each - Pack Chosen First
-Given the Pack, the Target is Randomly Chosen
o This particular pack contains the target and 4 non-targets (Decoys).
. ANALYST'S TASK
- Rank-order the 5 Photographs in the pack from the Best to the
Worst Match to the Given Response
Original Order
Rank Order Match Number
Target
1
Target
3
1st
Place
Target
2
Target
4
2nd
Place 11
Target
3
-
Response
Target
2
3rd
Place
Target
4
Target
1
4th
Place
Target
5
Target
5
5th
Place
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FUZZY SET ANALYSIS OF A SINGLE AC RESPONSE
· 100 TARGETS PREVIOUSLY CODED AS FUZZY SETS
OF VISUAL ELEMENTS
-Intended Target is Selected Randomly
· RESPONSE IS CODED AGAINST THE SAME UNIVERSAL SET
· COMPUTATIONS (i.e., Normalized Fuzzy Intersections)
- Accuracy: The Percent of the Target which is Described Correctly
- Reliability: The Percent of the Response which is Correct
- Figure-of-Merit (FM): Accuracy > Reliability
· FMs ARE COMPUTED FOR ALL 100 TARGETS AND ORDERED
. PROBABILITY VALUES ARE DETERMINED BY LOCATION OF
THE INTENDED TARGET'S FM IN THE LIST
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RETROSPECTIVE: STATISTICAL CRITERIA - I
. CONSIDER THE FOLLOWING TWO EXPERIMENTS
- Coin Flips(1): n=500, Heads=275
In
= 2.24, p ≤ 0.01
Z =
2 (Heads -5)
-Coin Flips(2): n=250, Heads=138
Z = 1.58, p ≤ 0.06
· COMBINED RESULTS
-n=750, Heads=413
Z = 2.78, p ≤ 0.003
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RETROSPECTIVE: STATISTICAL CRITERIA - II
· EFFECT SIZE (ES)
- Coin Flips(1): n=500, Heads=275, Z=2.24, p≤ 0.01
ES = 2 = 0.10
-Coin Flips(2): n=250, Heads=138, Z=1.58, p ≤ 0.06
ES = 0.10
- Combined Results: n=750, Heads=413, Z=2.78, p ≤ 0.003
ES = 0.10
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LITERATURE REVIEWS (META-ANALYSIS)
. ANOMALOUS COGNITION - COMPLEX TARGETS
-H. E. Puthoff and R. Targ, Proceedings of the IEEE, 1976
o n=39, ES=1.13±0.16, Z=7.06, p ≤ 8.5 x 10-13
-I. L. Child, American Psychologist, 1985
o n=83, ES=0.51±0.11, Z=4.61, p ≤ 2.0 x 10-6
-D. J. Bem and C. Honorton, Psychological Bulletin, 1993
J. M. Utts, Statistical Sciences, 1991
o n=355, ES=0.20±0.05, Z=3.73, p≤9.6 × 10-5
· ANOMALOUS COGNITION - SYMBOL TARGETS
-C. Honorton and D. C. Ferrari, Journal of Parapsychology, 1989
o n~2 × 106, ES=0.020+0.002, Z=10, p<8 x 10-24
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