CIA-RDP96-00789R003000230002-2

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STATES GOVERNMENT
memorandum
S-490/DT
DATE:
12 December 1990
REPLY TO
ATTN OF :
DT
SUBJECT:
Project SUN STREAK (U)
TO:
1. (S/NF) The attached assessments focus on both the DB and DT-S responses
to questions posed by the DD; the DB assessment of the DT-S responses;
the overall assessment; and actions required to more fully evaluate the
DB/DT-S inputs (enclosures 1 - 8). This process was designed to maximize
objectivity and reduce/eliminate subjectivity.
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2. (S/NF) Overall, the evaluation of the data presented is mixed. The
accuracy of the assessment and the value assigned to the DT-S responses
are, in some cases, inconsistent. In order to more fully evaluate the
DT-S response, recommendations, where necessary, have been made at each
enclosure for DB/DT-S follow-on action.
SG1J
9 Enclosures:
1 .- 8. Assessments (S/NF),1 Cy
9. Evaluation Summary
(S/NF), 1 Cy
Project Officer
Directorate for Scientific
and Technical Intelligence
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multiple Sources
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OPTIONAL FORM NO. 10
(REV. 1-80)
GSA FPMR (41 CFR) 101-11.6
5010-114
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KEY INTELLIGENCE ASSUMPTION (KIA)
1. (S/NF) KIA: An Iraqi preemptive attack is not anticipated in the near
future (next 3-4 weeks).
A. Is the assessment accurate? (Circle response. )
(1) Yes
(2) No
X(3) \Unsure
B. What is the value of the KIA? (Circle response. )
(1) Major Significance
(2) High Value
(3) Of Value
(4) Low Value
(5) No Value
C. Provide additional comments/rationale, if desired. (Optional)
I roy might preemptively attache allied forces - a spaiting attack if Baghdad felt on the
offensive were immoment.
D.
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2. . (S/NF) KIA: Terrorist activity against U.S. and coalition forces is
not anticipated for the near future.
A. Is the assessment accurate? (Circle response. )
(1) Yes
(2))No
(3) Unsure
B. What is the value of the KIA? (Circle response.)
(1) Major Significance
(2) High Value
(3) Of Value
(4) Low Value
(5) No Value
C. Provide additional comments/rationale, if desired. (Optional)
TERRORIST Activity is A tool used by many players in the middle East
Some of these players including Saddam Hussein and the PLC may be looking
for the opportunity to strake at any time.
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D.
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3. (S/NF) KIA: There may be terrorist support/development
activity, or possibly some type of future staging in vicinity of Biji -
Tikrit - Al Fatha (NW of Baghdad). Activity has:
- chemical association
- cylindrical objects/equipment involved
- sensing/detection equipment involved.
A. Is this assessment accurate? (Circle response.)
(1) Yes
(2) No
(3)
Unsure
.
.B.
Are the activities listed above accurate?
(Circle response. )
(1) Yes
(2) No
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((3)/Unsure
C. What is the value of the KIA? (Circle response. )
(1) Major Significance
(2) High Value
(3) Of Value
(4) Low Value
(5) No Value
D. Provide additional comments/rationale, if desired.
(Optional)
E.
NAME
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appena
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4. (S/NF) KIA: Use of chemical weapons by Iraq against U.S. and coalition
forces in Saudi Arabia will NOT OCCUR in the near future (3-4 weeks).
A.
Is the assessment accurate? (Circle response. )
(1) Yes
(2) No
(3) Unsure
B.
What is the value of the KIA? (Circle response. )
(1) Major Significance
(2) High Value
(3) Of Value
(4) Low Value
(5) No Value
for the mess daten
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/
C. Provide additional comments/rationale, if desired.
(Optional)
Whereas Iraq is probably not planning a major offensive they certainly
are planning a strong defense which would vicente the use of CW. Hufone
any significant conbut will likely experience Cw usage by Iraq
D.
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OFFICE
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8.
(S/NF) KIA: Hostages have been neither tortured nor well-treated.
A. Is the assessment accurate? (Circle response.)
(1) Yes
(2) No
(3) Unsure
B. What is the value of the KIA? (Circle response. )
(1) Major Significance
(2) High Value
(3) Of Value
(4) Low Value
(5) No Value
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C. Provide additional comments/rationale, if desired.
(Optional)
D.
NAME
OFFICE
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13. (S/NF) KIA: Fuel-air explosives will not be used in the near future
(i.e., next 3-4 weeks).
A. Is the assessment accurate? (Circle response. )
(1) Yes
(2)) No
(3) Unsure
B. What is the value of the KIA? (Circle response. )
(1) Major Significance
(2) High Value
(3) Of Value
.
(4) Low Value
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(5) No Value
C. Provide additional comments/rationale, if desired. (Optional)
troy can be presumed to use FAE as well as the advance as soon as hostilities comune
D.
NAME
OFFICE
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14.' (S/NF) KIA: There are indications that the Iraqis will possibly use
fuel-air explosives in the 8 November 1990 time frame.
A. Is the assessment accurate? (Circle response. )
(1) Yes
(2) No
(3) Unsure
B. What is the value of the KIA? (Circle response. )
(1) Major Significance
(2) High Value
(3) Of Value
(4) Low Value
(5) No Value
:
C. Provide additional comments/rationale, if desired. (Optional)
It is now 9 Nov
D.
NAME
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OTHER TASK RESPONSES
By
DT-S
(S/NF) Other Data:
On 22 October 1990, the following information was provided
that may be of interest, although not directly related to tasking:
a.
Egypt will play a significant role in future peace negotiations.
b. The U.N. will continue to increase its role in negotiations.
c.
A name "Camaru/Kamaru" is important (presumably in regard to peace
negotiations).
d. More hostages will be released during November 1990.
(U) DB Assessment and DT-3 Evaluation Response:
(Appendices A thru D. )
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16. (S/NF) KIA: Egypt will play a significant role in future peace negotiations.
A. Is the assessment accurate? (Circle response. )
(1))
Yes
(2) No
(3) Unsure
B. What is the value of the KIA?
(Circle response. )
(1) Major Significance
(2) High Value
(3) Of Value
4) Low Value
(5) No Value
C. Provide additional comments/rationale, if desired.
(Optional)
Should be obvious to observers of the Micheast situation
D.
NAME
OFFICE
(U) Evaluation: Confirmed.
(U) Follow-on Action: None.
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17. (S/NF) KIA: The UN will continue to increase its role in negotiations.
A.
Is the assessment accurate? (Circle response. )
(1) Yes
(2) No
(3)) Unsure
B.
What is the value of the KIA? (Circle response. )
(1) Major Significance
(2) High Value
(3) Of Value
(4) Low Value
(5) No Value
c.
Provide additional comments/rationale, if desired.
(Optional)
D.
NAME
OFFICE
(U) Evaluation:
Confirmed.
(U) Follow-on Action:
None.
.
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18. . (S/NF) KIA: A name "Camaru/Kamaru" is important (presumably in regard
to peace negotiations).
A. Is the assessment accurate? (Circle response. )
(1) Yes
(2) No
(3) Unsure
B.
What is the value of the KIA? (Circle response. )
(1) Major Significance
(2) High Value
(3) Of Value
(4) Low Value
(5) No Value Whatsoever
C.
Provide additional comments/rationale, if desired.
(Optional)
D.
NAME
OFFICE
(U) Evaluation:
Unconfirmed.
(U) Follow-on Action: None.
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19. ' (S/NF) KIA: More hostages will be released during November 1990.
A. Is the assessment accurate? (Circle response. )
(1))
Yes
(2) No
(3) Unsure
B.
What is the value of the KIA? (Circle response. )
(1) Major Significance
(2) High Value
(3) Of Value
(4) Low Value
.
(5) No Value
C. Provide additional comments/rationale, if desired. (Optional)
*
D.
NAME
OFFICE
(U) Evaluation: Confirmed.
(S/NF) Follow-on Action: DT-S should be requested to update and to focus on the
release of U.S. hostages prior to 15 January 1991 deadline for Iraq to leave
Kuwait.
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