CIA-RDP96-00789R002100260043-4

Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002100260043-4
SPECIAL ACCESS PROGRAM
SECRET
SPECIAL REPORT
SUN STREAK EVALUATION
WARNING NOTICE: THIS MATERIAL IS
RESTRICTED TO THOSE WITH VERIFIED
ACCESS TO SUN STREAK LEVEL 3 (SS-3) .
CLASSIFIED BY: DIA/ST
DECLASSIFY BY: OADR
SECRET/NOFORN
SPECIAL ACCESS PROGRAM
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002100260043-4

Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002100260043-4
UNCLASSIFIED
CONTENTS
PURPOSE
1
I BACKGROUND
-
1
= II EVALUATION
-2
1. data base
2.
evaluation techniques
3. evaluation results
-
III FINDINGS
-- 3
APPENDIX
I.
PROJECT RECORD DETAILS
II.
DETAILED INSTRUCTIONS TO ANALYSTS/DATA REVIEWERS
UNCLASSIFIED
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002100260043-4

Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002100260043-4
LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURE 1.
Number of projects as a function of type
FIGURE 2.
Data Categories
FIGURE 3.
evaluation scales
FIGURE 4.
summary data evaluation SHEET --- Example
FIGURE 5.
Overall data correlations
FIGURE 6.
Overall averages for all project types
FIGURE 7.
Expected results for approximately 70% data
accuracy --- selected personnel
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002100260043-4

Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002100260043-4
SECRET
SUN STREAK EVALUATION
PURPOSE: (S/NF/SS-2)
Purpose of this report is to provide an
evaluation of the SUN STREAK operational projects conducted
since 1986.
I
BACKGROUND: (U)
SECRET
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002100260043-4

Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002100260043-4
SECRET
I BACKGROUND (U)
(S/SF/SS-2) SUN STREAK is an in-house DIA project for developing
an operational psychoenergetics (i.e., remote viewing) capability
for the Intelligence Community. Twelve GDIP billets were
authorized for DIA in 1986 for this activity. Personnel from the
army INSCOM CENTER LANE Project also had been examining similar
phenomenon were transferred to DIA to form the SUN STREAK core
group.
DIA had earlier (1985) received operational control from
the DA for this 6 person army unit.
(S/NF/SS-2)
In 1985, the DIA SUN STREAK program manager prepared
an action plan that: (1) detailed the steps necessary to
transition the CENTER LANE unit to DIA; (2) identified SUN STREAK
staffing and support needs; and (3) set forth key programmatic
requirements for the SUN STREAK activity. The action plan
anticipated that time required for achieving a prototype
operational capability would be approximately 3 years.
Key aspects of this action plan along with additional
procedural information, were sent to congressional committees in
1986. The IC staff was also briefed at this time on the action
plan and an anticipated SUN STREAK operational development and
data evaluation procedures.
(S/NF/SS-2)
Programmatic and operational requirements identified
in the action plan were to: (1) fain special access program (SAP)
status (accomplished in March 1985); (2) gain human use approval
(granted in March 1985); (3) set up a senior oversight and a task
coordinating committee (accomplished -- though not currently
activated); (4) establish tight project controls along with an
automated data base management and records system (accomplished) ;
and (5) to establish an R/D link for supporting operational
capability development (accomplished via HQ SGRD funding and a
DARPA MIPR).
(S/NF/SS-2) The R/D link, via SRI International, has yielded
improved data evaluation procedures, has identified potential
personnel selection techniques, and has contributed to
training/development methods that are currently in project use.
The activity at SRI has undergone extensive review by a 9-member
peer review panel to insure that scientific rigor is maintained.
(S/NF/SS-2) Basic approach employed by SUN STREAK toward
developing a prototype operational remote viewing (RV) capability
is to located personnel with potential RV capability and to
develop these abilities via appropriate training/development
procedures. Once satisfactory progress is noted on single-to-
verify training tasks, those individuals are presented advanced
training and operational simulation targets. Operational
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002100260043-4

Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002100260043-4
simulation targets are usually US military or scientific targets
where ground truth is totally known or can be readily determined.
Satisfactory performance on these tasks would qualify an
individual for operational projects of interest to the
intelligence community. In way of the operational projects,
however, ground truth is usually not known (or is only partially
known). Consequently, complete evaluation of the viewer's data
cannot be made until a later time when ground truth does become
available. In the interim, reasonable estimates of the overall
validity of the viewer's data can be made for many of the
operational projects worked, based on what is generally known or
suspected about the target. These interim evaluation results
would be updated whenever new ground truth is received.
(S/NF/SS-2)
The operational projects pursued by SUN STREAK are
* approved by the program manager and are, in part, based on the
program manager's familarity with IC needs and on solicitation
from others within the IC who have been briefed into the SUN
STREAK program.
(S/NF/SS-2)
The evaluation performed for this report covers all
the operational and operational simulation projects
(approximately 200) that have been worked by SUN STREAK personnel
since 1986.
However, a few special operations also involved use
of consultants from the SRI talent pool. These were only a few
of the total projects worked, and their results do not alter the
overall evaluation presented in this report.
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002100260043-4

Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002100260043-4
II
EVALUATION
(U)
1.
DATA BASE
(U)
(S/NF/SS-2)
The SUN STREAK project maintains an extensive
record of all project activity. Details include project
timing, people involved i.e., viewers, interviewers, and
possibly observers), and a variety of other data considered
essential for good record keeping and for evaluating project
results.
This data, along with project summaries, are
maintained in an automated data base for convenient
retrieval.
Copies of project summaries are also sent to the
program manager for his review.
In addition, all raw data
(i. e., sketches, viewer's notes) are maintained in a
separate file that is available for review and analysis
(Additional project record details are in appendix I) .
(S/NF/SS-2)
Evaluation conducted for this report involved a
complete reexamination of the entire SUN STREAK operational
data base. Many of the earlier projects had only been
partially evaluated, or not evaluated at all, due to lack of
suitable ground truth. All projects were reevaluated at
this time to adjust for new intelligence data that has
recently become available for some of the projects.
(S/NF/SS-2)
For this evaluation, the data base was
subdivided into 6 main project types: (1) scientific and
technological (S/T); (2) counterterrorist (CT) ; (3)
counternarcotics (CN); (4) counterintelligence (CI); (5)
document contents (Doc Cont); and (6) predictive (pred) .
Total projects worked for these categories are shown in
figure 1.
(S/NF/SS-2)
Of the nearly 200 projects worked,
approximately one-half cannot be evaluated since ground
truth is not sufficiently known at this time. For
approximately one-fourth of the projects, ground truth is
totally known (or highly certain), and for the other one-
fourth, ground truth is only partially known but considered
sufficient for making a reasonable interim evaluation.
(S/NF/SS-2) Some of these categories can overlap.
For
example, prediction data is also an aspect of most of the
CN, many of the CT and a few of the S/T projects.
The
prediction category in figure 1 refers mostly to predictions
of a political/military nature. Future analysis predictive
data will be evaluated as a separate aspect of the various
categories.
2.
EVALUATION TECHNIQUES
(U)
(S/NF/SS-2)
Techniques used for evaluating the SUN STREAK
operational and simulated operational data base depend on
the nature of the task and type of project. S/T projects
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002100260043-4
1.

Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002100260043-4
are the most difficult to evaluate.
£
This difficulty arises
from the general complexity existing at most S/T target
sites, Iran possible ambiguous aspects of known ground truth
about the target site, from the nature of the information
desired, and in a few cases, possibly from the RV targeting
method employed. It is easier to evaluate data or S/T
targets if only a single issue, such as presence or absence
(of a particular system, for example) is desired, then it is
to evaluate how well a viewers' detailed but possibly
fragmentary description correlates with aspects of a complex
site.
In this case a considerable amount of subjectivity
can be involved in evaluating the degree of data /target
correlation.
(S/NF/SS-2)
To assist in reducing overall subjectivity of
evaluating complex S/T targets, the viewers' data is
examined and compared to ground truth with several data
categories in mind. These categories are shown in figure 2,
and include geographic descriptions, large and small scale
objects, large and small scale functions, personality data,
and predictive data. Not all these categories may be
relevant to a specific project, and in some cases may even
be part of the RV targeting procedure (e. g., when a photo of
target building is used as an RV targeting reference for
accessing its unknown contents).
(S/NF/SS-2)
After identifying the appropriate data
category, the next step is to examine the viewers' raw (or
summarized) data for comparison to known or estimated ground
truth and to make a best judgement on what approximate
degree of data correlation actually exists.
Figure 3
defines the scale ratings used along with their approximate
degree of data correlation.
(Appendix II contains detailed
instructions for analyst consideration when reviewing the
data).
(S/NF/SS-2) Final evaluations and summaries are prepared by
the program manager and his project representative ( (who is
not part of SUN STREAK staff) in conjunction with the
responsible area analyst or Intelligence community point-of-
contact. Latest intelligence data and reports on that
target site are also reviewed during this process.
In some
cases, area analysts and the IC points-of-contact provide
written appraisals to assist in the final evaluation
process.
These evaluations are recorded on summary forms
and are maintained in the program manager's files.
(S/NF/SS-2)
An example of an S/T target evaluation is in
figure 4.
In this case the target site was the
SG1B
SG1B
SG1BD
The project was completed in June 1987 and involved
four viewers (2 proven and 2 novice). In this example, the
bracket ( ) indicates a best estimate was made since ground
truth is not yet totally known. A /
/ dash means that data
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002100260043-4

Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002100260043-4
SG1A
category was not present in the viewers' data. One of the
viewers (101) attempted to describe the site 6 months in the
future.
Some
SG1A
of the data categories (i. e., geographic features, large
scale objects) are not important since they are known.
However, they are included in the data evaluation for this
project since they tend to provide confidence that other (as
yet unknown) details in the data may be correct.
(S/NF/SS-2) A more sophisticated analysis methodology has
been recently developed by SRI for use in evaluating complex
projects.
This methods' main advantage is that it allows
quantified estimates to be made for each and every data
element with respect to both actual target existence and
importance. This technique is currently being examined for
use in the SUN STREAK program and has been applied to a few
projects.
However, it is a labor intensive technique that
will probably be used only for select high interest projects
in the future.
(S/NF/SS-2)
Most of the other SUN STREAK project types do
not require a complex analysis methodology. For example,
due to the nature of what type of data is desired (and
availability of collection assets that can be cued), most of
the CT; CN or predictive projects where ground truth is
known can be evaluated in a "black or white" manner.
The
data even if not acted upon, either correlated with the
subsequent location of the fugitive or ship, or it did not.
The event predicted did, or did not, happen. Thus, overall
results for many of these projects are simply a matter of
counting hits and misses.
Hit ratios or percentages of
hits/misses form the basis of overall data correlations made
in this report for these type of projects.
Additional data
analysis is of course performed to determine how close to
ground truth the data actually was.
This may be of value in
understanding how to conduct future search or prediction
projects.
3.
EVALUATION RESULTS (U)
(S/NF/SS-3) Overall data correlations for all SUN STREAK
operational and operational simulation projects performed
since 1986 are shown in figure 5. These results were
obtained by averaging the data entered on the summary data
evaluation sheets for each project primarily for two data
categories (i.e. large scale and small scale). The top
lines on the bar charts reflect data averages obtained from
the proven or experienced viewer. For some projects,
especially some of the CN and CI projects, the distinction
between large scale and small scale is not clearcut and this
differentiation may not be too important. For the
predictive category and most of the CN data, data
correlations were based on a hit/miss calculation.
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002100260043-4
6

Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002100260043-4
(S/NF/SS-3)
Figure 5 indicates that, on the average, data
from proven SUN STREAK viewers for S/T projects will tend to
have a 20 percent to 30 percent correlation with ground
truth for small scale targets, and a 30 percent to 50
percent correlation with ground truth for large scale target
features.
Likewise, for CT or CN projects, about 20 percent
to 50 percent of SUN STREAK data would be expected to
correlate with ground truth. Caution must be exercised in
interpreting this data, however, since the data base with
many ground truth is quite low. Even though the data base
is also small for CI and document reading projects, SUN
STREAK data shows a 40 percent to 60 percent correlation
level with ground truth for these projects.
The document
reading projects were, however, carefully isolated and is a
known or designated location.
Predictive data of the
complex event type (e. g. , political/military situations or
long term) shows a low data correlation (i. e., reliability)
of about 10 percent or less.
(S/NF/SS-3)
If all SUN STREAK projects are averaged
together, as shown in figure 6, data correlation would range
from about 20 percent for small scale aspects to about 40
percent for large scale aspects. While "averaging" such
data may indicate overall results in the long run, such
averaging tends to washout those results that have singular
high merit, such as the identification several months in
advance of a specific area in the U. S. where a fugitive was
later found.
In this case, SUN STREAK data was not acted
upon; fortunately, the fugitive was abducted through other
means.
(S/NF/SS-3)
Another way of considering overall SUN STREAK
project data correlation is to consider only the proven
viewers.
This data is shown in figure 7, for times when
these experienced viewers received a 2 or 2+ in the
numerical ratings assigned to their data correlations.
two types of data are presented here; S/T and personality
data is obtained from the various CT, CN and CI projects.
For S/T projects, proven viewers would be expected to
receive a high (i.e. approx. 70 percent) rating on about 20
percent of the S/T projects attempted. For personality data
(i. e. , background, state-of-the-health, specific
Only
activities) , around 50 percent to 60 percent of the projects
would yield high results.
Essentially, this chart indicates
certain strengths/weaknesses of the present SUN STREAK staff
and suggests more projects involved in foreign or CI target
personalities are warranted.
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002100260043-4

Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002100260043-4
III FINDINGS (U)
(S/NF/SS-3)
The overall data correlations provided in the
previous section, although in some instances have a low
overall average, are unique enough to warrant further
attention and continuous SUN STREAK activity. Even in the
lowest reliability case (i.e., predictive) , identification
of even one important future event out of ten could in fact
be highly significant in cost or life saving. There
averages also do not do justice for the single unique cases
that cost little to act upon, as in the case of the fugitive
location cited in section 3.
(S/NF/SS-3)
Specific findings that resulted from in-depth
review of the entire SUN STREAK data base include:
0
some individuals performance correlates with project
type. This observation has already assisted in better
task/person matching, and overall data correlations would be
expected to improve in the future.
o SUN STREAK has a distinct potential for direct
contribution to certain CI, CN and CT cases, as born out by
specific instances over the past two years.
0
Predictive data is promising under certain conditions,
such as near term events or situations that do not involve
complex interactions.
o S/T data, though having promise for select tasks, does
not yield parametric data.
o SUN STREAK viewers work well under operational stress.
It may be that an environment of operational stress with a
clear and immediate need has a crucial focusing effect that
enables RV to function better.
o Obtaining highly reliable RV data and then applying it to
real operational projects is difficult. However, it is
evident that continued work with RV data does result in
greater insight on how best to use RV data and on how best
to utilize RV talent available. Thus, it is anticipated
that RV data utility will increase as experience of the SUN
STREAK team grows.
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002100260043-4

Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002100260043-4
APPENDIX I
PROJECT RECORD DETAILS
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002100260043-4

Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002100260043-4
APPENDIX II
DETAILED INSTRUCTIONS TO ANALYST/DATA REVIEWERS
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002100260043-4