CIA-RDP96-00789R000800070002-5

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Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R000800070002-5
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WARNING NOTICE: INTELLIGENCE SOURCES AND METHODS INVOLVED
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PROJECT NUMBER:
90104-B
SESSION NUMBER:
1
DATE OF SESSION:
22 OCT 90
DATE OF REPORT:
23 OCT 90
START:
1511
END:
1521
METHODOLOGY:
WRV
VIEWER IDENTIFIER: 079
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1.
(S/NF)
MISSION:
Describe the nature of any terrorist activity, if
any, which may be planned and directed against US and coalition forces in
Saudi Arabia.
If activity will occur, give location (s) and indicators.
2.
(S/NF)
VIEWER TASKING:
None initially.
Cue was given late in
session to address terrorist activity in particular, as it applied to the
immediate future of the target which 079 had already identified.
3.
(S/NF)
COMMENTS: No Physical Inclemencies reported. Standard WRV
session.
079 identified and described the major future events of the target
area, to include reference to an Afghani incursion westward (into Iran)
which may alter Iran's involvement, while bringing a new player into the
present mid-east conflict. Late in the session, I cued 079 to specifically
address the question of terrorism. Session transcript and viewer's summary
are attached.
4.
(S/NF) EVALUATION:
5.
(S/NF) SEARCH EVALUATION:
Monitor:
018
Proj Mgr: 018
CLASSIFIED BY:
DIA (DT)
DECLASSIFY:
OADR
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TAHLE /NOFORN
WORKING PAPER
90104-B
901022
V:
079
S:
00
SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
At this time, there is not any planned and directed terrorist
activity against US and coalition forces in Saudi Arabia.
Other scenarios will come into play.
They are as follows:
Afghanistan will "push through their border area to
the west" and this will be another hot spot in the
very near future.
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There is unrest in the Yemens.
They Yemens may be
hot spot in the near future.
The PLO is acting favorably towards the US during
this crises.
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The Israeli's will stop their incursions.
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Iran will be quiet during the crises.
Iran is not
taking or deciding sides at this time.
The United Nations have very difficult decisions to make and
it will force Middle East countries to work situations out between
themselves and to stop looking to the "west" for help.
There will come a time when land or boundaries or borders
will be different in the Middle East than the way that they
currently exist.
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22 OCT 90
P.I. NUNO
(51) HUS
FT. MEADE
wir
0,8
THOUS
is wo manent
TIMhort
On DANGER To U.S.
FORCES, ETC. AT THE TIMES.
THESPACE WILL OCCUR- BSE
LIKE THIS FOR NEXT 3-5 WKS.
NEGOTIATIONS
5. HUSSEIN WILL TRY TO ALLIEVIARE
HIS PROBLEMS THU
SAME
Nonghtime with soy
3-5 WKS
HOSTAGES WILL CARE
Mons
our
This month.
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2
KOWAIT WILL LOSE
POL. + SCON, WHEN THIS
Is avon .
OLD
notime WILL NOT
B5
IN AGAIN
HOWEVER DO EXPECT THATASS.
at KIND Of
BACK
4
FouTH
THING.
CONCENTRATE ON
AGAINST
Jonnone ST
ACTIVITIES
U.S. & oThe Forces.
will withes A
AFGANISTAN
THE WEST OF THEIR
NAN
To
BonDoni
wonnyt
WHICH WILL
CAUSE
ALLISULATER
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3
AFGANISTAN
WILL
PUSH
THROUGH THEOLD BONDONS,
WILL BE ANOTHER HOT SPOT.
UNREST IN YEMEN AREA.
/
BUT TERAELIS WILL STOP
THEIR
INCURSIONS.
P.C.O
ACTS FAVORABLY FOR U.S.
I NAW WILL BE QUIET.
WORST
es
ovon - JUST A
MATTER OF NOT LOOKING TO
FOR SOLVING PROBLEMS
BUT
BOTWOON THORSOLVES.
WEST
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U.K.
WILL
HAUS
DIFFICULT
DECISIONS
MAKS.
WILL
40 00
KUWAIT/IMAO
U.N. JUDICIAL SYSTEM.
Hossoin
Looking
TO
NEGOTIATE.
Forma
FOOLS FA
185
HE CAN GET WHAT
WANTS.
ABLY TO WARD NOLODI
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Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R000800070002-5
ACTIVITIES,
ADDRESS
TOURIST
RKS FOR U.S.
PLO
IRAN
-
NONE.
SESSION SUD
1521
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Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R000800070002-5
PROJECT 90104 SUMMARY - 30 OCT 90
1.
( S/NF)
TASK A:
a.
(S/NF )
OBJECTIVE:
Describe indicators of possible
Iraqi preemptive attack.
b.
(S/NF )
RESPONSE: Preemptive attack is not anticipated
for near future (i.e; next 3-4 wks) .
c.
(U)
DATE OF LAST RESPONSE:
23 Oct 1990
d.
(U)
COMMENTS: Task can be updated in 2-3 weeks, if
desired.
2.
(S/NF )
TASK B:
OBJECTIVE:
Assess Iraqi use of terrorists.
a.
(S/NF )
"(S/NF )
RESPONSE:
0
Terrorist
activity against US and coalition
forces is NOT anticipated for near future.
0
There may be terrorist support/development
activity, or possibly some type of future
staging, in vicinity of Biji - Tikrit - Al
Fatha (NW of Bagdad) . "Activity has: : „co !!
- Chemical association
- Cylindrical objects/equipment . involved.
- Sensing/detection equipment involved.
c.
(U)
DATE OF LAST RESPONSE: 23 Oct 90
23 Oct 90
d.
(U)
COMMENTS :
Task can be updated in 2-3 weeks, if : : ...
;
desired.
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CLASSIFIED BY:
DIA/DT
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OADR
DECLASSIFY AV.
OLUNLI
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NOT RELEASABLE TO FOREIGN NATIONALS
ENCLOSURE 1
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