CIA-RDP96-00789R000401010001-5

SECRET
Approved For Release 2665/04/18CCESS FREBYERFP789HU8640 FJ/6669_GOVERNMENT
memorandum
DATE:
1 0 FEB 1989
REPLY TO
ATTN OF:
DB-5C
SUBJECT:
Evaluation of SUNSTREAK Reporting on U.S. Hostages (S)
TO:
DT
-
1.
(S/NF/SS-3) SUMMARY:
While a complete and accurate evaluation of
the use of SUNSTREAK reporting on U.S. hostages cannot be conducted until
additional hostage releases occur, preliminary findings indicate that
the SUNSTREAK program does, indeed, represent an additional source of
positive, hostage-related information. At a minimum, SUNSTREAK reporting
stimulates analytic deliberation, may help focus and guide collection
efforts, and forces reevaluation of extant theories and methodologies.
Moreover, experience with SUNSTREAK hostage-related reporting over the
past year revealed several instances of startling corroboration of other
intelligence collection disciplines (on both locational and health issues)
and an impressive logical consistency amidst the complex factional morass
that is Lebanon. In short, SUNSTREAK reporting, even in the absence of
corroborating evidence that could be provided by a released hostage, is
assessed to be as reliable and accurate on locational issues as many other
sources
of hostage-related information emanating from
Lebanon.
The
SUNSTREAK
program represents yet another
source of
information
and
stimulation for the intelligence analyst.
2.
(S/NF SS-3) LOCATIONAL DATA:
On the issue of locational information,
SUNSTREAK reporting has been remarkably logical despite the complex and
dynamic nature of Lebanese territorial and factional strife. The odds
pinpointing a hostage location that would be completely illogical in the
Lebanese context are great. For example a location that fell in an area
controlled by the Syrians, Amal, Druze, Lebanese Forces. or Israelis would
SG1C
-
3.
(S/NF/SS-3) On at least one occasion, SUNSTREAK reporting on Higgins'
SG1C
WARNING NOTICE: This information restricted
to those with verified access to SUNSTREAK
Level 3 (SS-3).
CLASSIFIED BY DT
DECLASSIFY ON OADR
OPTIONAL FORM NO. 10
(REV. 1-80)
GSA FPMR (41 CFR) 101-11.6
3010-114
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4.
(S/NF/SS-3)
HEALTH
INFORMATION:
While no accurate assessment
can
be
made
at
this
time
on SUNSTREAK
reports dealing with health
dynamics -- swings in physical and mental well-being -- the overall picture
presented by SUNSTREAK is consistent with judgments made by the Intelligence
Community. Moreover, the health dynamic portrayed by SUNSTREAK reports
SG1B
SG1B
Despite periodic news and intelligence reports that
certain
hostages
had died, SUNSTREAK reports have consistently and
emphatically assessed all the hostages to be alive. DIA agrees with the
assessment, and recent reporting strongly indicates the same.
5. (S/NF/SS-3) COMMENT: Our initial assessment is that SUNSTREAK reporting
shows great promise on the issues of hostage locations, but, much less
potential for predicting future or sequential events. Furthermore, reports
generated as a result of focusing on a single hostage (rather than the
hostage issue as a whole) appear to have a higher degree of accuracy.
SG1J
2
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