CIA-RDP96-00789R000200230003-2

-
Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R606206230003-2
COMMENTARY
1.26 8719
DREW MIDDLETON
Gulf War Entering Critical, Perhaps Final, Phase for All
CPYRGHT
"The firing of a few hundred machine-gun
rounds from an American warship in the
Persian Gulf on Nov. 2 may have served to
drive away an intruding boat, but it also di-
verts attention from some of the more sig-
nificant weapons and forces of the Iran-Iraq
war-a conflict in which the United
States, whether or not Washington wishes to
acknowledge it, is now deeply involved.
This involvement arises from two cir-
.cumstances. First, America is giving armed
assistance to the oil exports of Kuwait, a
state that from the start of the Gulf war has
been one of Iraq's leading supporters. Sec-
ond, while this assistance continues, Iraq is
free to continue its fairly successful air-sea
offensive against Iran's oil industry, which
supports Tehran's war effort.
We have not yet, of course, experienced
major Iranian retaliation, which, if it comes,
is likely to be delivered by Chinese Silk-
wormsmissiles. Those are a Chinese version
of the soviet Styx, which was a highly suc-
cessful suo ship missile until the arrival of
the French Exocet surface-to-surface mis-
sile, which is now in the Iraqi armory.
The Silkworm's 1,000-plus-pound war-
head can damage a vessel of substantial size.
The problem with the missile is that its ra-
dar guidance system can be jammed or chaff
can divert it from its target. Although the
Navy acknowledges that the Silkworm can
Ataile range in about 6 minutes,
it also is confident that it has the tools to di-
vert the missile once detected.
Will the Silkworm be used? A normal
government faced with the naval and air
strength of the United States would contin-
ue to employ the Silkworm only against Ku-
waiti targets, risking defense from that
country's American Hawk missiles and old
Soviet SAM-7 surface-to-air missiles. But,
as we know now, the government in Tehran is
-not a normal, rational one. Rather it is one
A Silkworm missile is launched during a military exercise in China. The
weapon's 1,000-pound-plus warhead can sevirely damage a large vessel.
# Worms that remain from the original pur"?
achase of,75. /
The adverse course of events in the Per-
sian Gulf is not the only troublesome situa-
tion facing Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's
regime. Late last month the government secu-
rity council met to discuss for the first time
the expanding operations of what it terms
"terrorists" on it western frontier.
The attackers are the Mujahedeen
Khalq, or People's Warriors, who have
claimed from their headquarters in Bagh-
dad to have killed or wounded 4,300 Iranian
soldiers and officials in 94 forays into west-
groups should always be taken with several
spoonful of salt. But reports from Western
intelligence agencies in Tehran confirm
that, although the figures of Iranian casual-
ties may be exaggerated, the fact remains
that the Mujahedeen are presenting an in-
* creasingly serious military problem for the
Iranian army.
The elements of the problem are famil-
iar. The best of Iran's regular troops are else-
where-threatening Basra, training for a
new offensive in the north. Raids by the Muja-
hedeen must be met by poorly armed local
forces. Theraiders, usually striking at night,
kayb:p9: 00789R00020023000532 ships. We are entering a critical, per-
prone to "go for broke" and use thos Approved. FolRete asela00f GeAde : most cases, numbers.
The Mujahedeen's objectives in the at-
tacks include the destruction of arms and.
supplies. Their leader Massoud Rajavi,
who helped overthrow the shah, knows that
the Iranian forces are running short of
modern weapons and in a recent statement
claimed that his forces had destroyed
equipment worth millions of dollars.
Fragmentary intelligence reports from
Iran and its neighbors indicate that the inter-
nal situation is vulnerable to this sort of
resistance activity. Although the Khomeini
regime's police have ruthlessly quelled
any open signs of disturbance, these reports
speak of widespread disaffection among
two main groups.
The first is the urban middle class. De-
veloped under the shah, it has lost jobs and
standing. Its members no longer enjoy
their old standard of living - not with lamb at
$35 a half pound. Within this class, the lib-
erated women of the shah's era are the most
outspoken critics of the present regime.
The second group is made up of the
mothers and fathers of the "martyrs," the
name commonly given to the young men
who have been killed in the war with Iraq.
While there has never been an official fig-
ure, some estimates run as high as 600,000
dead.
The official government position is that
the parents are proud of their sons' martyr-
dom. But the government has done nothing
financially for the parents, whose loss of sons
to till farms or run shops would be the
equivalent in our society to a loss of Social
Security or an old-age pension.
Exploitation of that situation by the Mu- ,-
jahedeen or even a decisive Iraqi victory, if
and when Tehran launches its much dis-
cussed "final offensive," could bring down
the government. So, of course, could Amhere
ican retaliation for a Silkworm attack on
haps final phase of this long war.""".
Copyright 1987 Drew Middleton
1