CIA-RDP96-00788R001200230007-8

Approved For Release 2003/09/10- CLA-RPP26-08788R001200230007-84
FENS
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WASHINGTON D.C. 20310
1979
MEMORANDUM FOR MEMBERS OF GRILL FLAME, SCIENTIFIC
EVALUATION COMMITTEE
SUBJECT: Initial Assignments
1.
In accordance with our meeting at the Pentagon on 27 July, this memo
confirms the assignments for draft write-ups of specific topics related to
our evaluation task.
a. Dr. Tang - Discuss the general evaluation criteria for para-
psychological research experiments, especially with respect to the
contribution and limitation of statistical significance testing in phenomena-
logical verification applications. (It would be desirable to attempt to relate
this by example or otherwise to RV and PK evaluations. )
b. Dr. Cartwright and General Stahl - Discuss the applicability of
the RV protocol and experimental procedures suggested by AMSAA to
meet their stated objectives ("To develop and apply a methodology for
quantitatively establishing the existence or non-existence of some form of
psychic phenomena". ). Indicate also the approaches which have been taken
by AMSAA to improve on the SRI procedures and discuss further modifica-
tions which are required (especially in the selection of targets and assign-
ment of judging procedures) in order to decrease or eliminate the uncertain-
ties inherent in the proposed "matching" criteria.
c. Dr. Holloway and Dr. Montgomery - Discuss the program planned
by MICOM and SRI to attempt the experimental observation of possible effects
by a human subject on a random stream of electronic pulses. Include an
assessment of: (a) the need and timing for replicating the SRI experiments
at MICOM; (b) the instrumentation which is proposed; (c) the experimental
procedures as currently planned; (d) the instrumentation calibration
procedures; (e) the random source selections, etc. Recommend any
modifications to the planned (SRI/MICOM) process and protocol which would
further assure the credibility of the results within the context and limitations
of a computer-based, "hands-off", experiment producing a random bit
stream of pulses. IF following the above discussion it is concluded that the
very concept of the planned experiment has an insufficient scientific basis or
an unlikely practical significance, you are invited to recommend any appropriate
departu
and changes to the proposed
xperiments.
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GRILL FLAME
CLOSE HOLD/KAND CARRY
Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001200230007-8

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ved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001200230007-8
d. Dr."Orlansky - Discuss the likely limitations, significance and
scientific merits for the results which are expected to be obtained under
the following assumptions: (a) AMSAA's RV experiments are conducted
as currently planned; (b) AMSAA's RV experiments are modified in accordance
with recommendations in para b above; (c) MICOM/SRI PK experiments are
conducted as currently planned; (d) MICOM/SRI PK experiments are modified
in accordance with recommendations in para c above (retaining the current
random bit stream concept); (e) (optional) a new basis for assessing PK
effects is derived which is a major conceptual departure from current
experimental plans. (I recommend that you coordinate with Dr. Montgomery
and Dr. Holloway, if you want to anticipate possible approaches to more
rigorous scientific procedures. )
e. Dr. Snyder - Discuss the RV experiments conducted by SRI during
the past 6-7 years involving mostly coordinate cuing and "beacon" tracking
targeting methods. Of particular interest is the inclusion of an evaluation
of: (a) the contribution of this work to establishing the existence of the RV
phenomena; (b) shortcomings in the protocol which tend to diminish
credibility; (c) future benefits to be obtained by replicating the SRI
procedures at SRI or elsewhere; (d) SRI's application and interpretation
of statistical procedures in general, and particularly as they are being
applied to the "search-type" problems utilizing sequential analysis.
2. I have appreciated very much your cooperation on our recent trip, and
I am looking forward to receiving your draft material (typed or not) by mid-
August. As we concluded in our final session, I will make an interim report
of our work as it pertains to recommended changes in the AMSAA work, so
that the benefits of the Committee's review can be implemented in a timely
fashion. However, before I issue a memo placing a "hold" on AMSAA's
experimental planning, I will attempt to coordinate with you by telephone.
If I can be of any help to you between now and the meeting on 18-20 September,
please get in touch with me.
Enclosure
Updated List of
Committee Members
MANFRED CALE
Chairman
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Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001200230007-8