CIA-RDP96-00787R000300020001-8

( 1
r
SRI International
International
-
-
Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000300020001-8
Interim Report-1
Covering the Period 1 October 1985. to 30 September 1986
December 1986
LOCATION OF TARGET MATERIAL
IN SPACE AND TIME (U)
1
.
1.
SEHoved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000300020001-8

For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000300020001-8
UNCLASSIFIED
ABSTRACT (U)
(tp)"One reported psychoenergetic skill, known to the general public as "dowsing," is
ilty to locate lost or hidden items of interest. In an effort to bring this putative ability
:ilsearch" into the laboratory, we conducted a computer-assisted-search (CAS)
Participants scanned a computer graphics display and attempted to locate a
omputer-generated target. We explored two conditions: (1) the target was fixed in
tre condition, and (2) the target was randomly shifting locations each
.... time condition. Eight of 36 participants showed an above chance ability (p <
.: ihr computer-generated targets in our laboratory simulation of dowsing. This
idkextends the results of work done in FY 1984, and provides a pool of
.... il ora formal study of search techniques.
ii
UNCLASSIFIED0020001-8
-

Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000300020001-8
1
I INTRODUCTION (U)
A continuing
need
is
determining the location of'
targets of
interest, whose positions are not known or are known only approximately.
1
It has been claimed by the parapsychological community that
individuals can search for and locate water, oil, minerals, objects,
individuals, sites of archaeological significance, and so forth.
If this
can be demonstrated to be a genuine ability, and if it can be applied,
then we may have a potential match to the
above requirement.
This ability can be contrasted to the related psychoenergetic
ability "remote viewing," in the following manner. In remote viewing, the
viewer is given location information (e.g., coordinates, a "beacon" agent,
or a picture), then asked to provide data on target content
In "search, " the viewer is given information on target content,
then asked to provide location data (e.g., position on a map). The two
functions thus compliment each other.
L
1
I
19
1
Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000300020001-8

Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000300020001-8
(U) The ability to locate targets is most often referred to as "dowsing" in the Western
literature, and "biophysical effect (BPE)" in the Soviet/East Bloc literature. In this report, *
we shall refer to such techniques simply as "search." Although much of the literature is
anecdotal, 1t attempts to quantify the ability and to determine its mechanisms have been
pursued.#
-. The goal of the present effort is to research the literature,
then perform laboratory experimentation to determine whether, and to what
degree, such functioning is a viable candidate for applications
This includes determining (1) the best
methods and efficiencies of various search techniques, and (2) the
appropriate statistical analyses for evaluating results.
(U) In attempting to determine if this putative ability can be brought under laboratory
control, we have simulated "field conditions" with a computer-assisted-search (CAS)
experiment.
(U) Our CAS experiments generally contain the following basic elements:
(1) A finite matrix of possible target locations (e.g., a 20 x 20 graphics
matrix grid) from which one cell is randomly selected by the computer
as the target.
(2) An individual whose task is to "scan" the graphics display area, and
indicate, by pressing a button, his/her choice as to the target location.
(3) A feedback mechanism that displays the response and actual target
location.
(4) An a priori defined analysis procedure.
(U) Using this general procedure, we conducted an experiment during FY 1984 in
which two conditions were tested simultaneously:1§
· Searching for a target that remains fixed in space for the duration of the
trial (space condition).
(U) This report constitutes Objective E, Task 2: Develop methodologies to locate target material in space
and/or time.
T(U) For the most comprehensive and authoritative survey of the claims for dowsing, see Christopher Bird,
The Divining Hand, E. P. Dutton, New York, New York (1979).
++
(U) See, for example, papers published by Z. V. Harvalik, beginning 1970, in The American Dowser,
The Journal of the American Society of Dowsers (Harvalik is the ex-director of the basic research group
at the U.S. Army Engineering Laboratories, Fort Belvoir, Virginia).
§
(U)
References are listed at the end of this document.
2
Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000300020001-8

Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000300020001-8
UNCLASSIFIED
(U)
1.
· Searching for a target that is rapidly moving in space (time condition).
Seven individuals, who were blind to the space/time condition, were asked to contribute 50
trials (25 space, 25 time). Five of them produced independently significant results: three in
time only and two in space only. The most interesting aspect of our earlier result is that no
participant was successful at both space and time conditions.
(U) During FY 1986, our effort was to replicate the previous findings and provide
additional information on possible personality correlations using the Personality Assessment
System (PAS).2 Although locating computer-generated targets is academically interesting, it
may not assist in locating objects in the "real world." This premise is of paramount interest
and will be addressed during FY 1987.
:
1
3
Approved For Release 2000/08/19 :CLASSIFIED00020001-8

Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000300020001-8
UNCLASSIFIED
II METHOD OF APPROACH (U)
A. (U) Selection of Subjects
(U) A pilot study was conducted to select participants for a formal test, and to refine
the protocol. From the overall subject pool amassed for our FY 1986 experiments,
participants were selected on the basis of availability and interest. This pool currently contains
both "novice" subjects (persons who have never participated in psychoenergetic experiments)
and "experienced" subjects (those who have).
B. (U) Procedure
(U) A Sun Microsystems work-station computer was used to conduct all aspects of the
pilot experiment. This computer system is noted for its high- resolution graphics display and
graphics input device.
(U) The approach chosen here was a modification of a procedure originally developed
by Dr. Dean I. Radin at Bell Laboratories for evaluating geometric-distance scores in a
perceptual task.3 In this approach, we begin by constructing the target area of interest in the
form of a square. A grid system is then laid down over the square in the form of an n x n
matrix, to yield n2 separate grid cells (e.g., 400 for a 20 x 20 grid). The computer randomly
selects one of the grid cells as the target for a particular trial. The subject's task is to
"locate" the target cell. After the subject responds, both the choice and the target are
displayed. A trial is defined as a single response (button press) associated with a single target
location.
(U) In our experiment, a bounded area representing the perimeter of a 20 x 20 cell
matrix was shown to the participant, who could "search" for the target by moving a graphics
pointing device (mouse) which controlled a cursor. By pressing a button on the mouse the
participant could indicate his/her response. Each participant was told (1) the target could be
any place within the display boundary, (2) move the cursor around the bounded area, and (3)
when the moment "seemed right," to register his/her choice by pressing the button on the
4
Approved For Release 2000/08/ 9 MIGRDASS SI FRE 00020001-8
.

Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000300020001-8
UNCLASSIFIED
(U)
mouse. The computer was programmed to give immediate feedback to the participant
following each trial by automatically displaying the target cell as a filled square and the
participant's choice as a shaded square with a line connecting the two (see Figure 1). After
several seconds of the feedback display, the computer recycled to the next trial.
Probability of d < r
p (d)
d
UNCLASSIFIED
FIGURE 1 (U) SEARCH MATRIX
(U) To test a participant in the space condition, the target location was fixed
throughout the trial. To test the time condition, the target location was changed once each
millisecond. During the screening phase of the experiment, the computer selected one of the
conditions for each trial by a balanced random protocol. The participant and experimenter
were blind as to which condition was being presented on any given trial. Participant choices
versus computer selections were stored for future analysis. Each participant was asked to
produce 10 trials per session. In the pilot phase, 36 individuals completed 50 trials -- 25 trials
in each of the two conditions studied.
(U) In summary, our experimental design includes:
· Hypothesis -- In the absence of known sensory information, it is possible
to determine a "hidden," computer-derived target location to a
significant degree.
5
Approved For Release 2000/08/10 UNGASSIFIED
0020001-8

ed For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000300020001-8
UNCLASSIFIED
· Independent Variable -- Target location is on a 20 x 20 matrix grid.
.
Dependent Variable -- Geometric distance (d) is between choice and
target:
d = V (Yt-Yc)2 + (X1 - Xc)2
C. (U) Analysis
(U) Using the grid as an approximation to a continuum, we can calculate exactly the a
priori chance distribution that any given search response would lie at any given distance from
a particular target location. From this, an evaluation can be made as to the quality of a single
response (see Figure 1).
(U) To estimate the probability of observing a distance (d), the following calculations
are performed:
· For the actual target position used in the trial, a distribution consisting of
all possible (400) distances is constructed.
.
The probability (p-value) of observing the distance (d) or less is given
by
rsd
Σ ρ (d;)
I = 0
VI
-
400
where p (dr) is the distance distribution.
For n total trials by a given subject, the p-values are combined by compiling an average (over
25 trials) p-value for each condition. Then:
Z =
V
12n (0.5 - p)
The overall p-value is computed from z.
1. (U) Controls: The particular random number generator algorithm used in this
experiment has been studied in detail and is found to be adequate for multidimensional
applications.4
(U) The p-value calculated for each trial above is an exact calculation. The
distance distribution, p(d), depends upon the single target point and the analysis assumes that
6
UNCLASSIFIED
Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000300020001-8

or Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000300020001-8
UNCLASSIFIED
response is random and that all possible responses are equally likely. This assumption is
vald; humans exhibit natural response "biases." For example, individuals tend to avoid
Wedges. To correct for this, the analysis described above is conducted reversing the
weaning of the target and response pairs (i.e., the target is analyzed as though it were the
«-sponse, and vice versa). This reversal satisfies the two criteria assumed in p(d), namely, the
response" can be at any location with equal probability, and p(d) now depends upon the
single "target" point.
2. (U) Significance Criteria: To declare that a given individual has produced a
significant series of 25 trials, the overall p-value must be less than or equal to 0.05. To
declare the pilot series to be significant, at least eight participants must demonstrate
independently significant results.
-
7
Approved For Release 2000/08/10JNGLASSJEJED
600787R000300020001-8

-
Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000300020001-8
III RESULTS (U)
Table 1 shows the p-values for each participant in each
condition. Two individuals achieved significant p-values in the space
condition and six persons showed significant p-values in the time
condition.
Table 1 (U)
(U) p-VALUES FOR PARTICIPANTS IN SEARCH EXPERIMENTS
Subject I.D.
Space
Time
105
0.84078
0.16176
177
0.44148
0.13012
111
0.98868+
0.96894+
274
0.96954+
0.74088
144
0.63678
0.67126
099
0.95199+
0.21685
933
0.70792
0.14378
728
0.26703
0.11501
537
0.34966
0.19182
161
0.44627
0.31385
258
0.43465
0.96682+
594
0.54688
0.41565
677
0.76812
0.49793
653
0.23560
0.81473
636
0.85025
0.36908
570
0.67064
0.26024
393
0.44284
0.49724
255
0.97783+
0.96208+
425
0.74256
0.98615+
989
0.56330
0.80866
498
0.23507
0.84781
790
0.70135
0.63873
642
0.27391
0.03106*
300
0.13345
0.00010*
463
0.16690
0.01473*
428
0.34136
0.03143*
057
0.63092
0.03778*
004
0.99536+
0.04630*
531
0.25078
0.91276
432
0.01245*
0.29625
837
0.04117*
0.69349
003
0.10618
0.19182
580
0.08974
0.53519
763
0.18481
0.26932
038
0.18619
0.35158
164
0.97838+
0.61381
Significant at < 0.05 in predicted direction
+ Significant at < 0.05 in direction of target avoidance
8
Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000300020001-8

Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000300020001-8
Evidence supporting the tendency for significant subjects to do
better on one task over the other (as reported in previous research) can be
demonstrated by calculating a z-score for the difference between the
z-scores associated with the average (across individuals) p-values of the
significant condition versus the nonsignificant condition. We find z =
2.87, which is significant at the 0.002 level.
.
9
Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000300020001-8

Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000300020001-8
IV DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS (U)
The results are in line with predictions; eight persons showed
significant deviation from chance expectation (probability equals 0.027).
In addition, post hoc analysis shows a significant tendency to do better on
one condition than ON the other.
(U) In FY 1987, the seven best individuals in each condition will participate in a formal
CAS study, in which the conditions will be separated and the number of trials increased.
...
1
-----
10
-
Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000300020001-8

proved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000300020001-8
UNCLASSIFIED
1
REFERENCES (U)
1.
Puthoff, Harold E., and May, Edwin C., "Target Search Techniques (U)," Final Report,
SRI Project 6600, SRI International, Menlo Park, California (December 1984) SECRET
2.
May, Edwin C., and Saunders, David, "Personnel Identification and Selection (U),"
Final Report, SRI Project 6600, SRI International, Menlo Park, California (December
1984) SECRET.
3.
Radin, Dean, "Evaluating Geometric Distance Scores in a Perceptual Task," Research in
Parapsychology, 1981, pp. 163-164, Scarecrow Press, Inc., Metuchen, New Jersey
(1982) UNCLASSIFIED.
4.
Lewis, T. G., and Payne, W. H., "Generalized Feedback Shift Register Pseudorandom
Number Algorithm," Journal of the Association for Computer Machinery, Vol. 20, No.
3, pp. 456-468 (July 1973) UNCLASSIFIED.
1
-
11
Approved For Release 2000/08/1PJRICPROSBFF(300020001-8